anxebla
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Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Thu Feb 10, 2005 10:15 am

According to seattlepi: >""...But Baseler said Boeing is forecasting a market of around 300 ultra-long-range jets with 300 or more seats over the next 20 years""<

300??? Is not too much?? What's your opinion about this issue?

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/211255_air09.html
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zvezda
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Thu Feb 10, 2005 10:46 am

I believe the B777-300ER is counted as ultra-long-range. If so, the estimates seem reasonable. If not, they seem absurd.

The hint of the B777-200LR flying in excess of 24 hours without a stop is delicious. That would be a nice record. I'm expecting Boeing will fly one AKL-LHR (without payload) perhaps overflying SYD as the great circle route would overfly restricted Russian airspace.
 
anxebla
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Thu Feb 10, 2005 10:54 am

>""I believe the B777-300ER is counted as ultra-long-range""< Are you sure? I don't believe such thing at all.

>""I'm expecting Boeing will fly one AKL-LHR""<
Airbus did on the 90's a TLS-AKL with A340-200. Then, it's not new.

Sincerely, I believe that 300 planes for the ultra-long range market is not realistic.
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zvezda
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Thu Feb 10, 2005 11:45 am

There is a big difference between TLS-AKL and AKL-TLS. Boeing flew a B747-400 LHR-SYD. No way that aircraft would have made it SYD-LHR. Similarly, I don't believe the first generation A340-500 would have made it AKL-TLS.

I meant (and I apologize for the ambiguity) that I think Baseler was counting the B777-300ER as ultra-long-range. But I could be wrong.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Thu Feb 10, 2005 11:50 am

Airbus did on the 90's a TLS-AKL with A340-200. Then, it's not new.

Not with payload

Sincerely, I believe that 300 planes for the ultra-long range market is not realistic.

Over 20 years that's roughly 15 aircraft a year. Not that incredible really....
 
anxebla
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:13 am

>""Not with payload""<  Insane

GUAU! Thanks for your info, Dfw... do you know? How useful information you have given. I didn't know such thing.
Of course, with no payload!!!!  Angry


>""Not that incredible really""<

Keep in mind this ultra-long range market is the most limited market... Both, Airbus and Boeing are selling just a few plane to a few customers. (by the way... do Pakistan and Eva Air really need a 772LR?) It's logic, because:
1.- There is not many city pair which are far away (more than 15.000 kms) and...
2.- Demand can to justify a scheduled flight between them.

With the exception of SIN-LAX/EWR, BKK-JFK/EWR, PER-LHR ... and just a few more... do you really think there's a large market? I think that the A-380 market is bigger than this one.

Even that rumour to start a direct service UK-Australia (LHR-PER non-stop) is, still, only a rumour. No more.
In addition to that, even the new 772LR can't do a SYD-LHR.

In the other hand, there are passengers who don't want to stay 18/20 hours inside a plane. (including myself)
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incitatus
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Fri Feb 11, 2005 3:03 am



The 777-200ER is frequently used on flights that could be performed by the short range version, for example, East Coast US to Europe. For some airlines the -LR could also end up being used on routes that are currently flown by the -ERs.

Take a healthy version of United Airlines. It would place the -LR on routes from Asia to the US. Some destinations such as Singapore and Hong Kong could support multiple daily flights: SIN-SFO, SIN-ORD, HKG-SFO, HKG-ORD, HKG-JFK, BKK-ORD, MNL-LAX, KUL-SFO, TPE-ORD.
Only these flown daily are enough to consume 20 aircraft.

Another opportunity is India. If Air India was well capitalized and had good management, it could fill the India-US market with 10 or 15 nonstops a day flown into the 5 major cities in India allowing well timed connections to domestic and SE Asia. Take 30 -LRs. Instead nowadays the US-India
traffic is split across a gazillion connection points.

The current A340-500 flights on SIA remind me of the time when CX was starting nonstops to London. The London bound leg was heavily restricted and CX would carefully pick the route every day to minimize the risk of diversion.
Today Singapore and Hong Kong to London are common place and
most people ok 13 hours in an aluminum tube.

Large orders will come.




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aseem
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Fri Feb 11, 2005 3:07 am

Today Singapore and Hong Kong to London are common place and
most people ok 13 hours in an aluminum tube.


plastic tube if you consider B787!!  Laugh out loud
rgds
Aseem
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anxebla
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Fri Feb 11, 2005 4:54 am

>""For some airlines the -LR could also end up being used on routes that are currently flown by the -ERs""<
Really? Please... Can you giving us some examples. Thanks in advance.

Remember one easy thing: The -LR's are more expensive than -ER's ones. Why paying a lot for the plane which don't you need?
At the moment none of both, American or European carriers is an A345/772LR customer. In the next future, this scenario will go on being the same.
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aseem
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:01 am

At the moment none of both, American or European carriers is an A345/772LR customer. In the next future, this scenario will go on being the same.

FYI! AC has two A345 and had their financial situation been better, they'd have bought couple more for their DEL and HKG routes.

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Moreover, the way things are going with AC(route expansion), more long-range planes shall be required.
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Aseem
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anxebla
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:08 am

Yes, you are right... AC is the exception!
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incitatus
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Fri Feb 11, 2005 9:42 am


>>""For some airlines the -LR could also end up being used on routes that are currently flown by the -ERs""<
>Really? Please... Can you giving us some examples. Thanks in advance.

-ERs are also more expensive than the short haul -200As but have a higher residual value. That together with fleet commonality makes the incentive for only having -ERs. The -LR vs. -ER case could be the same: common fleet with common interiors for all flights beyond ~ 7000 miles.

The other point is that past 6500 miles with strong headwinds the -ERs start taking a payload hit. Why did DL apply for ATL-PEK instead of ATL-PVG? The way to Shanghai is 7650 miles. There are several US to Asia-beyond-Japan routes being flown with 777-200ERs and 744s that are payload restricted. LAX-HKG for example is 7200 miles. EWR-HKG flown by Continental's -ERs is more than 8000 miles.




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anxebla
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sat Feb 12, 2005 4:30 am

OK, but, anyway... "300 ultra-long-range jets" are lots of "jets"... especially when we're talking about the 772LR, an aircraft which is not, precisely, the cheapest aircraft on the market-
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Thrust
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:09 am

The 772LR is a necessary airplane in the market. If QF orders it, they would not have to stop in Singapore on the trip to London from Sydney. The 772LR could do LHR-SYD nonstop. My guess is that it is quite likely QF and BA could end up buying it, especially since both tolerate General Electric. Zvezda is right....it does indeed sound delicious to fly unimaginable distances nonstop. Think about what the 772LR will do for trade in countries. Heck NW might even replace their 742 cargo planes with 772LRs one day...we are talking about very efficient trade here people! I'm surprised frankly that the 772LR has not caught the attention of cargo airlines yet.
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gigneil
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:11 am

The 777-200LR could fly from LHR to SYD, but not from SYD-LHR.

N
 
Thrust
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:13 am

Why, Gigneil? i'm confused. Why could it not do SYD-LHR? crosswind trouble?
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:23 am

You mean headwind... which increase the still air, and thus make a considerable payload penalty necessary-- such that the aircraft would have to fuel stop in order to operate with a profit-potential load.
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lehpron
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sat Feb 12, 2005 5:32 am

I will NOT tolerate wasting nearly a whole day in a plane for more than the time it takes to get a good night's rest!  Pissed

Every flight should be 8 hours tops! Time is money.

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VH-BZF
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sat Feb 12, 2005 10:11 pm

Interesting that Singapore Airlines has discussed with its pilots currently flying the A340-500 that they are seriously considering replacing the Airbus long ranger with the B777-200LR!

I understand that current fuel burn on the GE engine on the 777-300ER is ahead of what was promised by GE/Boeing by about .5% & that the new GE on the -200LR will be .8% or better than promised. These may seem like small figures, however when it all adds up, it must mean HUGE savings for airlines!

Just a thought!

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zvezda
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sat Feb 12, 2005 11:31 pm

With all due respect to Gigneil and ConcordeBoy, I'm not at all convinced that the B777-200LR will not be able to fly SYD-LHR nonstop as part of a profitable round-trip rotation. Boeing and GE are continuing to make performance improvements.

I can easily imagine a scenario in which a 200 seat B777-200LR flies SYD-LHR nonstop without cargo at breakeven and then makes a pile of cash on the return with a lot of cargo.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sun Feb 13, 2005 4:18 am

Every flight should be 8 hours tops! Time is money.

**presents Most Idiotic Statement in Thread award to this post**  Laugh out loud






With all due respect to Gigneil and ConcordeBoy, I'm not at all convinced that the B777-200LR will not be able to fly SYD-LHR nonstop as part of a profitable round-trip rotation.

Consider to whom you speak.... nobody on God's green Earth has been a bigger cheerleader for the 772LR over the last half-decade than I.

That said, I do realize that Boeing has a knack for underpromising and OVERdelivering on its twinjet performance capabilities; but I'd rather take the conservative approach of being pleasantly surprised if/when the jet demonstrates that it can op the route with enough profit-potential to be of interest to the airlines with authority to fly that route nonstop.



Boeing and GE are continuing to make performance improvements.

Yes, they are... but keep in mind that they've already upped the b!tch's payload/range four times since it's launch; and without any significant structural/designed modifications at all. There's only so much they can do within the parameters available-- not to say that they've reached that point as of yet though.



I can easily imagine a scenario in which a 200 seat B777-200LR flies SYD-LHR nonstop without cargo at breakeven and then makes a pile of cash on the return with a lot of cargo.

Question being, will:
breakeven + pile of cash = enough incentive to potentially decimate the yields of the standard 1stops

SQ is technically the only airline currently operating C-market routes, and while their results (relevant to the aforementioned equation) are promising, they're still anecdotal; as SQ has no nonstop competition, which is not the case with the kangaroo routings.
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Gabrielz
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sun Feb 13, 2005 7:01 am

I personally think Boeing is underestimating the market for LR aircraft, under a revised economic scenario in which the "heavy lift" Asia-market carriers are healthy (UA, SQ, CX, BA, QF).

The hub-spoke system is somewhat broken, as I'm sure we all agree. And where it shows it's age - in particular - is in longhaul US-Asia routes. If you are going from a relatively large US city (say, MIA) to a relatively large Asian city (say BKK), your only option is a 2-stop trip. Even for those of us on the West Coast, with very good service (I'm in SFO), all of SE Asia is a 1-stop trip. LAX now has nonstop SIN service, but that's about it. American business people will absolutely-positively pay a premium to eliminate stopovers.

Therefore, the LR opens up a market possibility for carriers like UA that is very significant - running point-to-point ops not only from major US hubs, but from multiple US cities to Asian destinations at a profit. This would allow airlines that purchase the LR to intrude (significantly) on other's hubs with 2-4x weekly direct service to Asian destinations (and some Middle East/Africa) without having to establish a hub there or route pax through their hubs.

The competitive strength, therefore, is significant. Think about UA running a 2x-weekly BOS-SIN nonstop. It's that kind of thing that the LR is supposed to achieve, in addition to eliminating Hub-Endpoint stopovers (ie. SFO-SIN) that will make a huge difference for many airlines.

I *do* expect a healthier UA (if it can be made to happen) to be a very large customer for this bird.

 
anxebla
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sat Feb 19, 2005 11:20 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (reply 16):
which increase the still air, and thus make a considerable payload penalty necessary-- such that the aircraft would have to fuel stop in order to operate with a profit-potential load.


Then... bye, bye SYD-LHR non-stop  Laugh out loud


>""Every flight should be 8 hours tops! Time is money.
**presents Most Idiotic Statement in Thread award to this post**""<

hahaha, ok, saying 8 hours is a bit excessive, but keep in mind there are a lot of people who are not determined to spend 18 hours inside a plane.
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RayChuang
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sun Feb 20, 2005 12:21 am

I think if we do see LHR-SYD non-stop, the planes will NOT be configured according to Airbus or Boeing seating configurations!  Smile

I think BA may be seriously looking at the possibility of flying between LHR and SYD non-stop using the 777-200LR, mostly because BA already flies GE90-powered 777-200ER's. Because of the sheer length of the flight, BA will probably configure it with roomier World Traveller Plus Economy class seating and roomier Club World Business class seating, so the plane will carry at most 200 passengers. This flight will be aimed specifically for business travellers, and will be priced that way, too.
 
N1120A
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sun Feb 20, 2005 12:31 am

>by the way... do Pakistan and Eva Air really need a 772LR<

For the routes they want to do, yes. Then again, BR is likely to swap the order for 777LRF's.

>I think BA may be seriously looking at the possibility of flying between LHR and SYD non-stop using the 777-200LR, mostly because BA already flies GE90-powered 777-200ER's. Because of the sheer length of the flight, BA will probably configure it with roomier World Traveller Plus Economy class seating and roomier Club World Business class seating, so the plane will carry at most 200 passengers. This flight will be aimed specifically for business travellers, and will be priced that way, too.<

At 200 passengers, you are talking about the same type of cabin with the same percentage (The 772 is slightly bigger than the 345) of seats taken out for restrictions. At the current numbers, it would likely not work.
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L410Turbolet
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Sun Feb 20, 2005 12:32 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (reply 20):
.... nobody on God's green Earth has been a bigger cheerleader for the 772LR over the last half-decade than I.


Thanks for telling us, otherwise we wouldn't notice.  Insane

Quoting Thrust (reply 13):
....it does indeed sound delicious to fly unimaginable distances nonstop.


Delicious? Being stuck more than 12 hrs. on an a/c sounds like hell in the sky to me. And I don't think I'm the only one. Available technology is one thing and willingness of people to suffer through such ordeal is the other.

[Edited 2005-02-19 16:35:48]
 
anxebla
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Mon Feb 21, 2005 5:41 am

Quoting L410Turbolet (reply 25):
Being stuck more than 12 hrs. on an a/c sounds like hell in the sky to me. And I don't think I'm the only one


You're right, L410. I think, indeed, that this called "C-market" is very limited. And not only because the extra range issue, (which is not necessary in more than 90% on the current words' routes) but also due to there are many passengers who don't wish spending more than 14 hours within a plane.I'm one of them.

Saying: "Boeing is forecasting a market of around 300 ultra-long-range jets with 300 or more seats" it does not make sense. At least, it seems.
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CORULEZ05
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Mon Feb 21, 2005 5:44 am

I dont understand how there can be such a huge market for ultra-long aircraft....who wants to be on an aircraft for 18hrs non-stop?...NOT me.
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DAYflyer
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Mon Feb 21, 2005 6:18 am

If the people buy the tickets, the airlines will buy the planes.
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gigneil
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Mon Feb 21, 2005 6:18 am

Anybody who says they don't want to be on a plane for more than 8 hours is not a businessperson.

I don't know anyone that travels as a regular part of their business schedule that wouldn't prefer an 18 hour nonstop to a 14 hour then an 8 hour onestop.

None, at least not American businesspeople.

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ozglobal
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Mon Feb 21, 2005 6:40 am

I dont understand how there can be such a huge market for ultra-long aircraft....who wants to be on an aircraft for 18hrs non-stop?...NOT me. CORULEZ05

Try about 60 744's per week just on the kangaroo routing (Oz-Europe) and take the F, J and maybe Y+ cabin populations. Offer a permium J class configuration (e.g. BA, QF, SQ style, NOT AA, UA style) and you will find a good percentage of that population will opt for a non-stop of 21hrs for the trip. And that's just the kangaroo route.
Those people already spend 22hrs+ flying the route plus another 1.5hrs layover in Asia. If you think that's weird, it just shows that there are huge aviation markets you haven't experience in.
However, this is a moot point, as the 772LR cannot yet deliver a return journey on this route and even the LHR-Oz direction is boarderline.

Ozglobal
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leelaw
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Mon Feb 21, 2005 6:45 am

Quoting Gigneil (reply 29):
Anybody who says they don't want to be on a plane for more than 8 hours is not a businessperson.

I don't know anyone that travels as a regular part of their business schedule that wouldn't prefer an 18 hour nonstop to a 14 hour then an 8 hour onestop.



Amen. Having done both the EWR and LAX/SIN runs in the SQ premium economy (2-3-2, equivalent to business class elsewhere) I can report that it's really quite bearable, especially with the excellent IFE and snack bar. IMO, much better than rolling a carry-on bag around a transit airport for an hour or two.
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anxebla
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RE: Ultra Long Range Airplane: Market's Forecast

Fri Feb 25, 2005 10:30 am

Quoting OzGlobal (reply 30):
Those people already spend 22hrs+ flying the route plus another 1.5hrs layover in Asia. If you think that's weird, it just shows that there are huge aviation markets you haven't experience in.


That's false at all. There are lots of passengers who spend one/two nights in cities such as BKK, KUL, SIN, HKG.... on route Europe-Oz. Airlines like TG, MH, SQ, KE, CX, BA, QF, NZ are offering stop-overs with no extra charge.

In fact, just a few business-men are determined to spend 18 hours (and also paying more) within a plane in order to save time.
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