jacobin777
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Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:26 pm

I hope its a go...that would be sweet..!!!

"Boeing Commercial Airplanes VP-Marketing Randy Baseler said yesterday that he believes the company will move forward with development of its proposed 747 Advanced.

"I think it will be a go…The market prospects are very good," "

http://www.atwonline.com/indexfull.cfm?newsid=4981
"Up the Irons!"
 
leelaw
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:39 pm

How many units would need to be sold to recover the development cost? Is this the best way for Boeing to maintain market presence in this segment until the 787 has entered service?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
BA
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:40 pm

Excellent news!

Anything that breathes new life into the 747 makes me happy.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
daedaeg
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:41 pm

Mr. Stoneceipher, Boeing CEO seems to be a big fan of it as well. And what Stoneceipher wants, Stoneceipher gets. Well, usually.
Everyday you're alive is a good day.
 
Leskova
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:48 pm

What a surprise... a few days after Mr. Leahy calls the sales outlook for Airbus' new (and as of yet not finalized) plane good, Mr. Baseler calls the sales outlook for Boeing's new (and as of yet not finalized) plane good...

Not surprising to see Airbus and Boeing play a new round of PR-ping pong...

Regards,
Frank
Smile - it confuses people!
 
777ER
Crew
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 4:50 pm

Airlines that don't need the A380 capicity on certain routes will need a B744. B744 does have a future.
 
ZK-NBT
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 5:46 pm

Hopefully Boeing will go ahead with this one! If they actually go ahead and launch the thing then at least its available to airlines, rather than Boeing wondering how many customers they can get and not building the thing, then they never no.

Long live the 747!
 
scotron11
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 7:07 pm

Ditto! Sh*t or get off the pot already! A lot of airlines will be ready to order replacements by the EIS date of the 747ADV (approx 2010). BA in particular springs to mind. Let's go!
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 7:19 pm

Has Boeing indicated a 2010 EIS date? That seems pessimistic to me. I would have expected late 2008 or early 2009. Certainly the engines will be ready then. What else takes a long time?
 
greaser
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 7:25 pm

That seems pessimistic to me. I would have expected late 2008 or early 2009. Certainly the engines will be ready then. What else takes a long time?

Considering it will be a 787-based 747, it wont come before the 787, and it wont come within 6 months after the last test flight for the first model. 2008 is unrealistic, while 2009 is probable but it will be tight. Engines' arnt everything.
Now you're really flying
 
mauriceb
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 7:28 pm

something in me says that when they will go on with the project, the first customer would be KLM!!! the A380 is way to big , and the need Combí's since KLM has about 18 combi 747's .
 
klmcedric
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 7:29 pm

Hmmm,....? I'm curious what Boyd will have to say about this.
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 7:47 pm

Greaser, aside from the engines, in what way is the B747Adv a B787-based airplane? I would say the two most significant advances of the B787 are the composite fuselage and bleedless systems, neither of which the B747Adv will have. In terms of technology, the B747Adv will be more comparable to the A380 and A350 than to the B787. What specifically would hold up B747Adv development beyond engine availability?
 
greaser
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 8:00 pm

Greaser, aside from the engines, in what way is the B747Adv a B787-based airplane? I would say the two most significant advances of the B787 are the composite fuselage and bleedless systems, neither of which the B747Adv will have. In terms of technology, the B747Adv will be more comparable to the A380 and A350 than to the B787. What specifically would hold up B747Adv development beyond engine availability?

You ARE right, the 2 significant advances will be engine tech.. But, I believe a new wing will be given to the 747, along with a humid-er cabin and the basic 787 cabin features. As for the bleedless systems, who knows?? Not much is inked and alot is still on the table. Right now, no one outside Boeing knows anything firm about it, besides the obvious, and the fact that the efficiency of the 787's engines will be shared with the 747, as stated by Boeing execs.

However, the technology would be about equal to that of the 787, though i seriously doubt they'll have much in cockpit commonality. The 747ADV could have certain parts changed to composite materials, and i've heard a composite tail like the 777 is favored.
One could also look out for a new wing and flap/slats systems.
Now you're really flying
 
keesje
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 8:14 pm

Baseler also reiterated the company's view that the market for 747/A380-size aircraft remains extremely limited--only 790 units over 20 years.


Boeing silently adjusted it's market forecast for the next 20 years for 747 and larger aircraft from 533 to 790 now, up nearly 50% in 1 year.

Ref. Boeing Market Outlook 2004, http://www.speednews.com/stw/cmo2004.pdf (page 10)


Strong signal for firm believers always to look at these numbers with specific company interests in mind.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
LPLAspotter
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 8:19 pm

MauriceB:

I agree with you that KLM certainly has a liking to the combi 747. However, wasn't there some discussion on this forum that the FAA will not certify any new aircraft as combi? I can't seem to find the thread, however, I'm almost certain that there was some discussion about it.
Nuke the Gay Wales for Christ
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 8:29 pm

If the B747Adv gets a new wing, then I agree that EIS probably won't be in 2008. However, I'll be a little surprised if Boeing decided to invest that much in B747Adv development.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Thu Feb 10, 2005 11:12 pm

Hmmm,....? I'm curious what Boyd will have to say about this.

Probably much like I'm about to say....

250-300 copies at best, this assumes everyone that has one buys one to replace what's in service. The demand is no longer there, and this move is more political than anything else.
 
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BALandorLivery
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:08 am

I think it will go ahead.

Boeing needs a new generation aircraft to compete with the A380. They can't let Airbus have the whole of the market share.

Although the 747ADV will be slightly smaller, it sort of has its own niche between 744 and A380.

Am I right to assume that there will be a smaller version to directly replace the 744?

Regds
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:10 am

The B747Adv is expected to come in only one size. The next Boeing smaller will be the B777-300ER.
 
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BALandorLivery
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:14 am

In that case with the 747 ADV being more economical, can seats be removed to get the capacity of a normal 744? Or will it be econmomical enough to operate as normal but with a lower load factor?

What I'm trying to get at is; what will the direct replacement for the 744 be?

The 777-300ER or 747ADV
 
Rj111
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:18 am

Part of me wants to see the beautiful 747 grace the skies for years to come, but the other part of me says it's going to die a horrible death if the 747 adv is launched.
 
jumbojet
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:55 am

Other then engineering differences with the 747ADV, what are the structual changes? Will the top deck be lengthened, is it the main deck that will be extended?

S
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 2:58 am

Some B747-400s will be replaced by B777-300ERs; some will be replaced by B747Adv. It depends on the needs of the airline.
 
JMV
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look G

Fri Feb 11, 2005 3:03 am

Greaser,

The 747ADV likely won't have higher cabin humidity. Boeing is able to increase the humidity level in the 787 because it is a composite fuselage, thus less prone to corrosion. Assuming the 747ADV will retain its aluminum fuselage, cabin pressure and conditions will remain the same as the 747-400.
Google begins where my brain ends! ©
 
boeingbus
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look G

Fri Feb 11, 2005 4:00 am

Here's a snippet from a news article in the Wahington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12605-2005Feb9.html

The 747 Advanced, as the new model is called, would seat 400 to 500 passengers and would incorporate more fuel-efficient engines and redesigned wings constructed of lightweight materials, Randy Baseler, Boeing's vice president of marketing, told a group of reporters at the company's Rosslyn office yesterday.

I wished they would take this a step further and make it all electric systems like the 787, cockpit commonality with the 777/787 and GLARE or the lighter aluminum fuselage.

The plane could be delivered by 2009, a year after another new Boeing aircraft, the twin-aisle 787 Dreamliner, comes off the line.

Great timing!

Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst with Teal Group, said Boeing should move ahead with the 747 Advanced, if only to offer customers competitive aircraft. "It seems poorly thought out" to kill the 747, Aboulafia said. "There's no reason to not keep the line alive as pricing pressure on the A380. The 747 is a superb plane," he said.

Not an expert - but my exact feelings of the 747!
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
keesje
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 4:12 am



So what about Boeing certainly boosting its market forecast for 747+ sized aircraft by 50% at the moment they try to sell the 747adv?


What about the credibility of the rest of Boeings forecasts about e.g the market they see for the 7e7?


"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
boeingbus
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 4:17 am

What about the credibility of the rest of Boeings forecasts about e.g the market they see for the 7e7?

The same goes for Airbus forecasts... they are forecasts, such as the weather man on your favorite news channel... is he always right?

Call back in 20 years to see who was right... till then, don't take those numbers seriously...

But lets go one step furhter and lets say that Airbus has much more to gain on an inflated forecast than Boeing... and you all know why... the much contested EU subsidies...
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
Planesmart
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 4:27 am

If the justification for a 747ADV is 'as pricing pressure on the A380', it's a pretty poor reason for B stakeholders to give it the green light. Perhaps B execs should consult former L & McD execs on the wisdom of that move.

The reality is that there is no consistency in the airline industry regarding how advanced a version of the 747 is required, something that B are equally unsure about as well.

And yes, some airline execs share Aboulafia's thoughts. A 747ADV will keep A38 pricing keen, but if A38 and 747ADV pricing is keen, will they buy the 747ADV?

747ADV supporters are almost universally airlines that have not yet ordered the A38. Is this because they genuinely want a 747ADV, in which case B should ask them to place launch orders and part with serious dollars, or simply because they dragged their feet, and the A38 launch price is no more, and a 747ADV go-ahead might get the A38 launch prices back on the table?

IMO, B would be better off developing the 737 and 777 using 787-style technology. Better to have >50% share of 90% of the market, than divert resources to compete on the fringes.
 
JDD1
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 4:37 am

Zvezda

The 747ADV has to be a new airplane. It will be fly-by-wire almost certainly, with basically the same systems and flight deck as the 777 and 787 to get the same training benefits as the Airbus fbw fleet. Boeing will never spent $12+bn on a new plane and not build in the possibility of a family of 400-500 pax (see reply 25). So they are already thinking of something of the A380-700 size!
Where are Boeing going to get the design and engineering staff? They have so few left that the majority of the 787 is being designed abroad.
In any case they will not be available in meaningful numbers until the 787 design is nearly finished. ie at least till end 2007. Another three years to design the 747 ADV and another two to get it into service = 2012.

And where is the $20b or so going to come from (787+747)? Now if they were to abide by the 1992 WTO Agreement they could get 33% from the government. Life could be so easy couldn't it?
 
boeingbus
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look G

Fri Feb 11, 2005 4:45 am

If Boeing can bridge the gap of actual operating costs to the A380... Than just maybe, there are more airliners that would opt for the 747ADV than the A380.

The 747 is less risky as its lighter, flies to more places as it uses existing infrastructer, proven design, and it will COST less... Airbus can't compete on price otherwise it would lose money... so Airbus has the size (passanger and floor space) as it's main selling point... There are a limited airlines (Asia and the ME) who needs that sized plane... and more importantly who can support the resources required to use the A380. Boeing should not quit this segment...
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look G

Fri Feb 11, 2005 4:51 am

JDD1, who says Boeing will spend $12B+ on developing the B747Adv? They could spend nearer to $2B. One group of airlines wants a minimal, low-cost, ready in 2009 solution and another wants a full-blown, new-winged, advanced materials solution and are willing to wait and to pay more. It looks like Boeing can't satisfy both groups and will have to make a choice.
 
Areopagus
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:04 am

Hmmm,....? I'm curious what Boyd will have to say about this.

Well, he could say that the 747Adv's greater pavement loading, and its longer turning radius, might require runway and taxiway upgrades that airport owners will be loathe to finance.

Or, he could say that sharing the current 747's landing gear track width and engine span will allow it to be compatible with existing facilities.
 
Leskova
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:04 am

And where is the $20b or so going to come from (787+747)? Now if they were to abide by the 1992 WTO Agreement they could get 33% from the government. Life could be so easy couldn't it?

No, they couldn't.

The 33% of development cost was the provision for the EU/Airbus side of the deal - the US side "got" 3% of the nation's LCA (Large Civil Aircraft) turnover... non-repayable, that is...

http://europa.eu.int/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=MEMO/04/232&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en

Regards,
Frank
Smile - it confuses people!
 
kalakaua
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:14 am

Check out Randy's website blog journal... whatever you call it!
http://www.boeing.com/randy/

Gravity explains the motions of the planets, but it cannot explain who set the planets in motion.
 
dl021
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:17 am

Greaser....I don't believe B can humidify the cabin any more than is now the norm. The reason they can improve the environment on the 787 is the composite fuselage will not oxidize the same and its greater strength will allow for better pressurization.

I hope that Boeing gets sufficient interest to grab some of the marketshare, and that the more efficient engines allow for greater operating economics on the routes where it can fill up with pax.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
 
gigneil
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:32 am

You ARE right, the 2 significant advances will be engine tech.. But, I believe a new wing will be given to the 747, along with a humid-er cabin and the basic 787 cabin features

That is NOT going to happen. There is NOT going to be a new wing, and the more humid cabin has to do with the 787 being composite.

The 747ADV has to be a new airplane. It will be fly-by-wire almost certainly, with basically the same systems and flight deck as the 777 and 787 to get the same training benefits as the Airbus fbw flee

IT ISN'T GOING TO BE.

This has been beaten to death here. None of these things are going to happen. NONE of them.

It is a simple stretch of the 747 with 787 engines hung under and an updated cockpit. That's IT. No new wing, no new systems, no added composites, no FBW, nothing. NOTHING.

N
 
ZRH
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:54 am

I like the B 747. But is it really a wise decision to modify a 40 year old airliner? Can it compete with a brand new aircraft like the A 380 (though the slight difference of capacity)? I see the same problem for the A 350. Can it compete with the brand new B 787? I doubt in both cases.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:54 am

If Boeing can bridge the gap of actual operating costs to the A380... Than just maybe, there are more airliners that would opt for the 747ADV than the A380.

The 747 is less risky as its lighter, flies to more places as it uses existing infrastructer, proven design, and it will COST less... Airbus can't compete on price otherwise it would lose money... so Airbus has the size (passanger and floor space) as it's main selling point... There are a limited airlines (Asia and the ME) who needs that sized plane... and more importantly who can support the resources required to use the A380. Boeing should not quit this segment.


Not only that, but the airports that do not want to support the A-380 with massive infrastructure changes will not be billing airlines for Airbuses they dont buy.
One Nation Under God
 
art
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:54 am

I go along with Gignell - new engines, updated cockpit. Cheap update.

If development costs were kept to a minimum, few sales would be needed to recover development costs.

It would be a cheap way to hedge one's bets: should the trend move towards larger aircraft servicing hub routes, Boeing will have a product in production to service demand while an all new aircraft is designed.
 
boeingbus
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:55 am

Gigneil,

How can you be so sure with your responses? where are your sources? and please no articles from the media as its all hearsay.

Boesing hasn't even launched the plane and you are over here ranting like you know it all... You don't know what the final outcome will be so just agree to disagree but don't be a jerk about it.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
gigneil
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 5:59 am

Flight International, among other reputable sources, has covered this. In detail.

We know what's being offered to the airlines.

N
 
Bicoastal
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:06 am

I wonder if Boeing is motivated by the rumors that Airbus will help United with bankruptcy exit financing in return for an order for jets to replace the 747-400s. United, rightly so, is banking on its international routes as the money maker in the future. Either an entire refurbishing of its showing-their-age 747-400s or a new jet order may be part of the equation to remain competitive on international routes.
Airliners.net has many forums. It has spell check and search functions. Use them before posting!
 
gigneil
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:15 am

I doubt it has anything to do with it.

Firstly, there's been no discussion really of that since 2003. No news reports or viable media have brought it up.

Second, I think UA's upgrade strategy for their 744s is going to be smaller planes.

N
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:26 am


Boeing silently adjusted it's market forecast for the next 20 years for 747 and larger aircraft from 533 to 790 now, up nearly 50% in 1 year.


That's incorrect. In their 2002 forecast, the number of large twin-aisle deliveries for 2002-2021 was 944 units. In their 2003 forecast, the 2003-2022 number was 889 units. In the 2004 forecast, the 2004-2023 deliveries of large twin-aisle went down to 787.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look G

Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:40 am

In the Randy's Blog http://www.boeing.com/randy/ link, it's totally clear as to what is being offered:

What's advanced about it? Well, the breakthrough technology of the 787 engines for one thing. Seating capacity of 450 passengers (the only jetliner in the 400-500 seat market) is another. Then there is a range of 8,000 nautical miles (14,816 km). Cruising speed of 0.86 Mach. A modified wing. An upgraded flight deck. And some very nice interior enhancements.

So, repeat after me:

  • New Engines

  • More Seats i.e. fuselage stretch

  • More Range

  • More Speed

  • A modified wing

  • An upgraded flight deck

  • Interior enhancements

  • Anyone still thinking this means an all new aircraft must not be paying good attention.
    Inspiration, move me brightly!
     
    blackknight
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    RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

    Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:43 am

    Ok I'll play along with those that think they know what is up Boeing sleeves.
    The article below in .pdf format list some interest facts or claims as some of you will state.
    http://www.boeing.com/randy/pdf/747AdvCard.pdf

    1- The 450-passenger 747
    Advanced will beat A380 trip
    costs by a vast 19 percent margin,
    and still offer lower seat
    costs. Using existing airport infrastructure
    and ground support
    equipment, the 747 Advanced
    will enable airlines to serve a
    wide variety of markets.
    2- Quietest jumbo jet of them all, the
    747 Advanced meets the most
    stringent noise requirements.The
    747 Advanced is the very image
    of fuel efficiency and low emissions.
    Consuming 14 percent less
    fuel per passenger than the A380,
    the 747 Advanced is the most
    environmentally friendly highcapacity,
    long-distance jetliner.

    Ok how is Boeing going to accomplish these claims as presented to the airlines if things are the same old 747-400?

    http://www.boeing.com/randy/pdf/747AdvCard.pdf
    BK
     
    N1120A
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    RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

    Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:49 am

    >How many units would need to be sold to recover the development cost?<

    Well, Airbus has stated something like 250 (correct me if I am wrong Neil) for the clean sheet A380, so it will probably be less for the 747ADV which will not be too much of a difference from the 744. As it is, the 744QLR was being engineered to have the plugs (CX was asking for them). This is essentially that plane with more efficient engines and the quieter wing. Still, this frame has proved very willing to improve on itself (much like the 737) and could be very formidable if Boeing can do well with the engines and possibly keep the weight the same while adding the plugs
    Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
     
    JDD1
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    RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

    Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:54 am

    Zvezda,
    Boeing already discovered in 1998 that a minimum change -500 was not what the airlines wanted. The ADV would still have mostly 1960s designed systems and structure, and be competing directly with the A380-700.

    By the way gents you should compare Boeing's sales forcasts for VLAs before the -500 was rejected, and after. ie around 1997 and 1999. Boeing put on a brave face and chose to say to the world that there was no market, rather than accept that the airlines didn't want another old derivative. What else could they say.
    But now it seems that the market is coming back.

    Leskova
    I don't think that either the EU or the US would mind if one side adopted the other's system of assistance. There is nothing in the press release that limits them to their existing system.
     
    art
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    RE: Boeing....747 Advanced Launch Prospects Look Good.

    Fri Feb 11, 2005 6:59 am

    Re: post 46

    Ok how is Boeing going to accomplish these claims as presented to the airlines if things are the same old 747-400?


    By magic or by spending $12 billion+ dollars.




    [Edited 2005-02-10 23:04:07]