How big is the market for C market aircraft? (B772LR and A345)
Some back of envelope thoughts
You need 2 aircraft for a daily long haul flight. So that is about a 300m USD investment per route (adding in spare parts, engines etc)
Using the rule of thumb that leasing costs are 1% a month (or, using 20 year depreciation and 7% interest costs) the cost of the aircraft (before any operating costs) will be 36m USD a year.
With 260 seats, 365 days a year, 80% load factor, that gives you 76,000 r/t trip tickets a year.
So the cost of the aircraft alone is 475 USD a ticket!
Plus aircraft are more expensive to operate that their B market cousins. So no one in their right mind will buy one unless they really, really need it for a very high yield route.
So, that means no sales in Japan (only route worthwhile for C market is TYO-JNB
?) as they can fly everywhere worthwhile with a B market aircraft (Europe, USA, ME)
Probably no sales in Europe, for the same reason
Possibly required for some Oz-US routes (SYD
Required for some SEAsia-USA routes (SE Asia to LAX
/NYC. Maybe YVR
, but I doubt those markets would support paying a big premium for non stop)
Required for some JNB
routes? (Japan, USA)
Required for some ME-USA and OZ
flights – again, doubts about the yield premium…
It looks difficult for C market aircraft, in total, to sell much more than the B747SP. Certainly won’t be sales in the multiples of 100’s.