KarlB737
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ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 9:44 am

Courtesy: WLS-TV
Video Report Available here as well.

http://abclocal.go.com/wls/news/021505_ns_ohare-expansion.html


 
FriendlySkies
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 9:48 am

Welcome to America...the expansion will go through one way or the other. The Mayor of Chicago supports it. The Governor of Illinois supports it. BOTH Senators from Illinois support it. The FAA supports it. Sorry all you Bensenvillians, but expansion is coming. Instead of wasting time complaining about it like the parochial participants that you are, why don't you start looking for a new house? The city offered to pay for it already, sounds like a plan to me...

As for being overbudget...just about every major construction dealy is overbudget. It was also calculated a few years back. The anti-realism people just hired a bunch of "aviation consultants" to tell the FAA they are wrong. Sorry boys, that ain't gonna fly. Just look at some the arguments they make and you'll see why.  Big grin
 
leelaw
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 9:59 am

Does anyone know if Mr. Campbell's report is available anywhere online? Apparently the Suburban O'Hare Commission's website hasn't been updated since January.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 10:02 am

lol, my calculus teacher is named Mr. Campbell....ok, back on topic. Since the report is full of BS and nonsense, the SOC is probably afraid to put it online.  Big grin
 
kbuf737
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 10:55 am

If costs were that high wouldnt they just build a new airport?

How much seriously can a new facility cost, 12-15 billion tops?

And thats a real top of the line facility i would imagine.
The tower? Rapunzel!!!!!!
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:02 am

Blagoiovich wants to do both. ORD Expansion AND Peotone...I personally think Peotone will be a miserable failure, but that's just me...
 
Carpethead
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 12:27 pm

Maybe some fool of an accountant forgot that labor costs a lot more in the Chicago-area due to the cost of the heavily unionized construction workers!

Nevertheless, I hope the project goes through in a timely manner because the expansion is really needed.
 
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flying_727
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 1:03 pm

They better get started soon, other wise in a couple of years Blagoiovich won't be there to help. I know first hand that this governor isn't liked in IL and its a bi partisan decision, as the governor was Booed by students at a SIU basketball game.

If the mayor, governor, and senators don't push hard and fast, it may be the end of O'hare expansion.

flying_727
On ATA, You're On Vacation
 
moman
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 1:11 pm

How about Illinois just pays AA a billion dollars for AA to move all connecting ops to STL. This way ORD won't need to expand (saving $12 billion), there won't be as many flight delays, and the hometown airline (UAL) will become much stronger.

I know I'm dreaming, but the gov't is dreaming if they think ORD expansion is going to be a smooth ride.

Moman
AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
 
ckfred
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 1:56 pm

Let's face it, government projects almost always go over budget. Look at the Big Dig in Boston. Not to mention that the darn think leaks.

The fact that the Governor may lose his bid for re-election does not mean the end of ORD expansion. First, there are Republicans who support ORD expansion that may run for Governor in '06. If you want names, there is Bob Schillerstrom, president of the DuPage County Board, as well as Kirk Dillard, a state senator and chairman of the DuPage County GOP.

Second, the Mayor has a good working relationship with George Bush. This may explain to some degree why the FAA has been so accomodating so far.

Third, Sen. John McCain has made a number of unkind comments about the opponents of ORD expansion, including former Illinois Senator Peter Fitzgerald. McCain and Fitzgerald almost got into a fight on the Senate floor, and Trent Lott had to break things up. Personally, I think the former Navy flyer could have knocked the snot out of Fitzgerald.

My point is, however, that since McCain is chair of the Commerce Committee, he is supportive of measures that will improve ability of the air traffic system to move people in a timely manner, and ORD expansion is a key measure.

Fourth, Speaker Dennis Hastert is from Illinois and a supporter of both UA and AA. An expanded ORD will certainly be help them retain market share within the industry, so he is a supporter of ORD expansion.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:00 pm


Quoting KBUF737 (reply 4):
If costs were that high wouldnt they just build a new airport?


They basically are building a new airport.
 
leelaw
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:00 pm

Quoting MoMan (reply 8):
How about Illinois just pays AA a billion dollars for AA to move all connecting ops to STL


Haven't TW, and subsequently AA proven through real world experience that their isn't enough O & D traffic at STL to sustain a mega-hub. Consequently, AA would probably stand to lose much more than a billion dollars in the long term if they went back down that road again. IMO, AA's current operation at STL with 200+ flights per day is just the right size for the market.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
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lightsaber
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 4:33 pm

I agree with Beoing7E7, they're basically building a new airport on the only land they can get a hold of close to most of the Chicago market.

Ckfred, nice post. I enjoyed the details.

I think Peotone will work in the long term. It will be like IAD underutilized until the city expands around it and then...

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
moman
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 10:58 pm

Leelaw,

Quoting MoMan (reply 8):
AA to move all connecting ops to STL


You're right about the O&D, but I'm only suggesting they move a good portion of connecting flights only. AA would still have O&D service in ORD. Instead of having a mega-hub at ORD and baby hub at STL, they would have close to equal size hubs at both airports. This would save ORD from expansion, save AA from chronic delays, and I think it would be well received by the traveling public once it they are given a chance to see how smoothly things would work.

Moman
AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
 
leelaw
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:23 pm

Moman:

I'm not sure what you mean by moving, "a good portion of connecting flights only." A mainline hub at ORD and a regional hub at STL, and a shuttle between the two hubs?

Regards
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:27 pm

Quoting MoMan (reply 8):
How about Illinois just pays AA a billion dollars for AA to move all connecting ops to STL. This way ORD won't need to expand (saving $12 billion), there won't be as many flight delays, and the hometown airline (UAL) will become much stronger.



And give the largest O&D market in the nation to UA??? Not a chance.
 
ckfred
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:33 am

The only problem with cutting the size of the ORD hub and increasing the size of the STL hub is that Chicago is big enough to support 2 major hubs. St. Louis isn't big enough to support one major hub.

In the last 20 years, the metro Chicago area has grown from 6 million to 8 million, and there is no sign of growth slowing down. Housing developments keep going up farther and farther from the Loop, in all directions.

That's why ORD is still a hub for two major airlines.

Peotone will be needed at some point, but there is a need to set up infrastructure before that day. Right now, there is no rail service from the Loop. Both ORD and MDW have CTA lines, and there is a commuter rail line that serves remote parking at ORD.

The other problem for Peotone is that there is no direct highway access from the western suburbs, which has a lot of people and businesses. The extension of I-355 from I-55 to I-80 just started, about 10 years behind schedule. So it will be at least 10 years, before the extension to I-57 and the airport site starts.
 
Midway2AirTran
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 2:14 am

The expansion is pretty much underway and in the hands of the FAA, it is doubtful that it will be stopped. The critics can only gripe and complain now. Then realize how wrong they were when it gets going in the future. The new runway configs and new terminal should be a great benefit for everyone that flies not only in Chicago, but nationwide.
"Life is short, but your delay in ATL is not."
 
DAYflyer
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 2:22 am

The costs of these projects are ALWAYS underestimated. It's the only way to get them approved. Besides, they forget to add in the neccessary bribes and kickbacks into the final totals!!
One Nation Under God
 
gigneil
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 2:25 am

Yeah I'm not surprised. DEN ended up almost double its budget.

The way I see it, the proposed ORD expansion is a bargain at any price. Its an absolutely critical project and the proposed layout is first rate.

N
 
KUGN
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 2:27 am

Once expansion completed, the only important thing is to keep ORD safe from mayor's bouldozers, especially at night.
 
gigneil
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 2:29 am

And give the largest O&D market in the nation to UA???

The largest O&D market in the US is, has been, and likely always will be New York, followed by Los Angeles.

N
 
leelaw
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 2:35 am

Quoting Ckfred (reply 16):
the metro Chicago area has grown from 6 million to 8 million


Actually, the 2000 census reports there are slightly more than 9 million people residing in the "Chicagoland" area. I'm convinced that the AA and UA mega-hubs aren't located at ORD by accident, mistake, conceit, or a strange desire to lose money. However, there are vocal participants in these threads from Indianapolis, St. Louis, and elsewhere who sincerely believe that the dual ORD mega-hubs: are just a lot of overkill; unnecessarily cause congestion throughout the rest of the system; and that the proposed expansion/realignment is a costly boondoggle which will do little or nothing to remedy the congestion problems.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Midway2AirTran
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 3:05 am


Quoting KUGN (reply 20):


Quoting KUGN (reply 20):
Once expansion completed, the only important thing is to keep ORD safe from mayor's bouldozers, especially at night.


LOL!! Good one KUGN..Good thing the mayor supports it so far.
"Life is short, but your delay in ATL is not."
 
leelaw
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimat

Fri Feb 18, 2005 3:38 am

Quoting Gigneil (reply 21):
The largest O&D market in the US is, has been, and likely always will be New York, followed by Los Angeles.


IIRC, Chicago is the third largest O & D market overall, but ORD as a single airport has the most O & D passengers by a wide margin.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
7e72004
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 3:42 am

If they did build Peotone; how do they get airlines to start service there??
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
Indy
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimat

Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:06 am

I can't wait to see how two financially crippled airlines are supposed to pay for this project. And what will happen to this project if they start work on it and UA goes out of business? Wouldn't that be an incredible waste of money? To me the problem seems easy to fix for the airlines. Quit trying to force everyone into ORD.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
jsnww81
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:11 am

I'm excited that we might finally, finally see some dirt moving on this project. I'd be content to see it get underway even without the southern runway. Most of the land acquisition for the northern runway is already complete - all they need is FAA approval to start leveling buildings.

As for Bensenville - anyone who's ever been there will tell you that leveling the town and building a runway would be an improvement. It's mostly a bunch of 1940s and 1950s Chicago-style bungalows (that are rental properties and aren't kept up very well) and some used-car lots (love those Spanish-language commercials "acerca del aeropuerto en BENSENVILLE!") The only thing I think merits some concern and sensitivity is the cemetery immediately adjacent to the present runway 9R-27L.

I'm also surprised we haven't heard more of a uproar from the good folks in Park Ridge. The new northern runway will put arriving traffic directly over their heads. Right now arrivals and departures on 9L-27R more or less follow the Kennedy Expressway and don't fly directly over Park Ridge - but the new runway will shift some of the flight paths about a mile north, over some pretty swanky homes.
 
KUGN
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:12 am

Perhaps Airbus industries could chip in, making it compliant with A380 specs  Smile
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:15 am


Quoting 7E72004 (reply 25):
If they did build Peotone; how do they get airlines to start service there??



High Speed Monorail.
 
airportplan
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:18 am

"If they did build Peotone; how do they get airlines to start service there??"

I have attended several air service conferences where airports and airlines come together to talk about service to airports. At these conference I have spoken to route planner and revenue managers from virtually all of the the legacy carriers and and major LCC. They all think that Peotone is a big joke and a waste of money. They view it as another Mid America. They all want to be at ORD or MDW. When those airports fill up they will go to Gary and Rockford.
 
KUGN
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:18 am

You don't want to travel on Chicago's rapid transit, if you have the choice...
 
airportplan
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 4:39 am

"I can't wait to see how two financially crippled airlines are supposed to pay for this project. And what will happen to this project if they start work on it and UA goes out of business? Wouldn't that be an incredible waste of money? To me the problem seems easy to fix for the airlines. Quit trying to force everyone into ORD."

From your user name I guess that you are from Indy. Indy has a very small O&D market. Chicago has a very large and lucrative O&D market. No one is trying to force any airline into ORD. The airlines are following the O&D traffic and the money. AA and UA are the major players in the O'Hare Expansion program. But all of the major legacy and low cost airlines that serve ORD (AA, CO, DL, etc.) have a seat at the table and take part in planning and financing the ORD modernization Program. The airline committee meets monthly to monitor the progress and to sign off various financing issues. If UA went under, it would be less than 48 hour before the remaining airlines would have acquired most of UA's gates and B6, CO or another carrier would have established a new hub. Look at what happened when TZ when into bankruptcy. How long did it take for WN to bid for to and acquire ATA's MDW gates?
 
Midway2AirTran
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:46 am

Apparently there is also a third large contributing airline involved in the project; to be announced later.
"Life is short, but your delay in ATL is not."
 
moman
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 12:45 pm

Quoting Leelaw (reply 14):
I'm not sure what you mean by moving, "a good portion of connecting flights only." A mainline hub at ORD and a regional hub at STL, and a shuttle between the two hubs?


I imagine that there is a certain percentage of flights that AA runs through Chicago that are mainly connecting traffic. I am thinking (and yes I realize this may be wishful thinking) that AA could route some of this traffic through STL, which would free up arrival "slots". Even if AA moved 100 daily flights, this would be a great improvement as long as other airlines didn't add flights.

I think AA is mainly in ORD to keep the pressure on UA. ORD might be a very large market but I haven't heard anyone of this board talk about the hidden costs associated with all the flight delays or bad publicity AA gets from the ORD congestion. AA could even run 10-12 757's daily between ORD-STL to move pax to connecting flights.

Moman
AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
 
ckfred
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:39 pm

One of the reasons that ORD is prone to congestion is that every one of the 6 runways intersects 2 other runways. Unless the wind is light and from the northeast, ORD is pretty much limited to 4 active runways, and then arrivals and departures have to be synchronized.

The new configuration calls for 6 parrallel runways running east and west. The downside is that aircraft will have to taxi across active runways much more often. The upside is that in bad weather, ORD will be able to use 3 runways for arrivals.

The problem for Peotone is that many airlines aren't interested. When Don Carty was the CEO of AMR, he said that AA would only fly out of Peotone to the other AA hubs. New York, and to a lesser extent L.A., shows the problems with larger operations at multiple airports in a metro area.

JetBlue has repeatedly said that it wants into ORD, because it does want to go after the business flyer. If enough gates were to open at MDW, B6 would look at starting service. B6, however, is not interested in Peotone.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Sat Feb 19, 2005 5:42 am

Quoting Gigneil (reply 21):
The largest O&D market in the US is, has been, and likely always will be New York, followed by Los Angeles.


Wrong. ORD has the highest O&D traffic of any commercial airport in the United States.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Sat Feb 19, 2005 5:57 am

Quoting Ckfred (reply 35):
One of the reasons that ORD is prone to congestion is that every one of the 6 runways intersects 2 other runways.


Well, almost...the smaller northern runways all intersect at two points, creating a sort of triangle. 14R/32L intersects once with 9R/27L, and 4R/22L does not intersect with any other runway. Frequently, they start take-off rolls at the T-10 intersection on 32L so that both 9R and 32L can be in operation at the same time.
 
gigneil
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Sat Feb 19, 2005 8:11 am

Wrong. ORD has the highest O&D traffic of any commercial airport in the United States.

Irrelevant. Chicago is not the largest O&D market in the US, which is what was said.

N
 
B4REAL
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Sat Feb 19, 2005 8:31 am

Quoting Midway2AirTran (reply 33):
Apparently there is also a third large contributing airline involved in the project; to be announced later



More info on this please!!!!
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Sat Feb 19, 2005 9:10 am

Quoting B4real (reply 39):
Quoting Midway2AirTran (reply 33):
Apparently there is also a third large contributing airline involved in the project; to be announced later

More info on this please!!!!


Something tells me it's not a US carrier...just a hunch.
 
allstarflyer
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Sat Feb 19, 2005 10:38 am

In my 2+ years of working at O'Hare, I never really took the time to see where the expansion would be. I felt they can't go north because of Des Plaines and Touhy is a heavily traveled road. Same for west due to Wolf Rd. and the commercial development that direction. East, obviously, is impossible due to I-294. It has to be south, of course, and I never went south much past Irving Park Rd. I lived in Willowbrook and (mostly) Sycamore, so I know that DuPage wouldn't work for a 3rd airport, and I don't know much about Peotone.

Best post goes to KUGN - great job, Mayor Daley, on handling Meigs. Here's to you not fouling up the O'Hare expansion with your overzealous tendencies. I enjoy listening to one of my favorite radio personailities, Roe Conn, who usually has a correct, and often humorous, perspective on Mayor Daley's meddlings.

Ckfred - I was curious where you think a good location for a 3rd airport could be. DuPage is too close, I feel, to Chicago, which does OK for now with ORD and MDW. RFD is a little too far. I was hoping, in vain I know, that some airlines or whoever could invest in, say, DeKalb - that seems to be the direction in which the metropolitan population is migrating, and I-88 is right there. Anything further north would put you close enough to MKE and you've already mentioned the difficulties associated with Peotone. Anyone, feel free to chime in on that one.

-R
Living the American Dream
 
leelaw
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Sat Feb 19, 2005 11:02 am

In the "pre-NIMBYAN" age, the first Mayor Daley (Richard J.) seriously advocated building an airport in the lake about a mile or two off the downtown lakefront. Doesn't seem like such a wild idea now as it did in the late sixties, given what the Japanese have done with offshore airports since then.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Sat Feb 19, 2005 11:37 am

True, Leelaw, but that would be out of the way for all suburbs. ORD's current location is perfect for the Chicago area.

Allstarflyer:

I believe the expansion plan calls for a slight reconstruction of I-294 around ORD. The total amount of land needed for the proposal is minimal, and I belief any acquisitions are to the north and west.

[Edited 2005-02-19 03:46:38]
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: ORD Expansion Costs May Have Been Underestimated

Sat Feb 19, 2005 3:35 pm

Quoting Gigneil (reply 38):
Irrelevant. Chicago is not the largest O&D market in the US, which is what was said.



Don't confuse MSA with Market. A single airport is a market. The groupings are the MSA genius.

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