CAL
Topic Author
Posts: 451
Joined: Sun Mar 21, 2004 10:33 am

Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Thu Feb 17, 2005 11:48 am

Hate to start a new thread on this but I know we were supposed to have some kind of answer on the decision as to who was going to be getting the new route authorities.
With all of the "aviation experts" we have here at A.net I thought you guys might be able to come up with some time frame for the decision.
Or any other info, Thanks and take care all....


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.....and may the best man win......
CAL........Continental Airlines....... Work Hard, Fly Right
 
aa777flyer
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Thu Feb 17, 2005 2:29 pm

Word is that CO will be awarded the EWRPVG route.
The TSA was created to make the post office look efficient!
 
PVG
Posts: 463
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:30 pm

Where does the word come from? Don't get me excited for nothing!
 
MAH4546
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Thu Feb 17, 2005 4:25 pm

The most likely scenario is that CO will get seven slots and AA will get seven slots. Delta, Hawaiian, and North American will probably be left with nothing.
a.
 
co7772wuh
Posts: 381
Joined: Sun Feb 06, 2005 7:13 am

RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Thu Feb 17, 2005 10:00 pm

Accourding to the other threads related to this topic and the people I spoke at CO " who are getting sick of hearing from me " , it's up to the "DOT" US government and possiblly the Chinese gov as well ???

Wondering if CO may have an advantage since they were the only Airline to buy the 787 ???
 
CAL
Topic Author
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:17 am

What does the 787 have to do with the routes that are awarded now, The 787's if CO gets them wont get here until l 2009........

[Edited 2005-02-17 21:41:11]
CAL........Continental Airlines....... Work Hard, Fly Right
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:29 am

Quoting CAL (reply 5):
What does the 787 have to do with the routes that are awarded now

ever heard of a kickback?  Big grin
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
gigneil
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 5:31 am

Only one new carrier will be named this year.

N
 
burnsie28
Posts: 5040
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:23 am

The most likely scenario is that CO will get seven slots and AA will get seven slots. Delta, Hawaiian, and North American will probably be left with nothing.

Only one carrier will get it.

Edit: Gigneil beat me

Anyway, I think DL is most likely to get it, AA doesnt have a chance, neither does CO,

DL- Serve from Atlanta
CO- Serve from Newark, which their is already plenty of service to china anyway.
AA- ORD, yeah right, not with UA there,

However, I will say that all of these airlines will likely only depend on stricktly O&D traffic, since both UA and NW are much more prominant in Asia, let alone china, many asians are known for sticking with one thing regardless (as long as they like it)
 
SESGDL
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:44 am

AA will not get the service. ORD-PVG is already serviced by UA. Hopefully DL will get the new service, if not, CO should get it.

Jeremy
 
Cory6188
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 7:52 am

Burnsie, where is this "plenty of service to China" that exists from EWR? Or from the whole NYC-area, for that matter?

Try one flight from JFK on Air China (I don't remember the code) and none from EWR at present. Considering that New York is the second largest market in the US from China for US-bound pax, I fail to see how one flight to JFK on a non-US carrier is considered plenty of service. ATL can't even compare in the amount of traffic. Keep in mind that HKG doesn't count as China service, as there are no restrictions for airlines to get slots to China from the US.
 
juventus
Posts: 2017
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:05 am

My money is on CO. Its not about the airline, but the region. Mr. Mineta wants to link China and the big apple.
 
CALMSP
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:07 am

thats what is going to be the deciding factor i imagine.....a large business region like shanghai and georgia peaches? idont think so.......it is oging to be awarded to us here at CO.
 
co7772wuh
Posts: 381
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:33 am

I must concur with Cory6188 . If I'm not mistaken the NYC area is 2nd in terms of Asian population next to Arnold's Cal lee Forn ya !

I flew CA JFK to PEK . Service was fine however , CA caters to Asians so I was a little uncomfortable with the food , not that was anything wrong with the food !!! It would be nice to have a US carrier with non-stop flts to Beijing and Shanghai at EWK .

Juventus
Hope this is not a stupid question . Who is Mr. Mineta ?

Dave
 
CAL
Topic Author
Posts: 451
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:46 am

If CO was to get the route. Is there some kind of rule that states when and how many frequencies a week they must fly the route to keep it?
CAL........Continental Airlines....... Work Hard, Fly Right
 
B4REAL
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 8:50 am

Quoting Co7772wuh (reply 13):
Hope this is not a stupid question . Who is Mr. Mineta ?


Refers to Norman Mineta, current Department of Transportation Secretary.
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
 
co7772wuh
Posts: 381
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 9:37 am

Well, I hope that Mr. Mineta makes his decision soon , he's only about a month late .

Thanks for the info .
Dave
 
alb222
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 9:42 am

Remember....the 2005 allocation goes to a passenger airline. The 2006 allocation goes to either a passenger or cargo airline.

CO has a good shot at the 2005 allocation.
DL did not apply for 2005 but rather for 2006. If a passenger carrier gets it, DL should because CO and DL would be operating from areas not currently served N/S by an American flag carrier. (Hong Kong does not count.)
 
MAH4546
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 10:11 am

AA will not get the service.

They have the most political support. That's what matters most.

ORD-PVG is already serviced by UA.

So what? NYC-PEK is already service by Air China.
a.
 
CAL
Topic Author
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 12:09 pm

Quoting CAL (reply 14):
If CO was to get the route. Is there some kind of rule that states when and how many frequencies a week they must fly the route to keep it?
CAL........Continental Airlines....... Work Hard, Fly Right
 
alb222
Posts: 217
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 9:16 am

RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 12:20 pm

Quoting CAL (reply 19):
If CO was to get the route. Is there some kind of rule that states when and how many frequencies a week they must fly the route to keep it?



There are 7 frequencies to be awarded in 2005 and 7 frequencies in 2006. Normally, the start time is initiated by the carrier requesting the slots in their filing. We are probably looking at July before a start-up at this late date.
If a carrier starts a route and does not fulfill its obligation as to days and frequencies flown, DOT can rule the route abandoned after 90 days and reassign them. This has happened too when a carrier received a route award and never started the route.....they can lose the route if another carrier applied vis-a-vis DL getting 5 frequncies from UA for ATL-GIG service as DOT determined these frequencies were abandoned.

[Edited 2005-02-18 04:20:53]
 
Thucydides
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:36 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (reply 18):


Quoting MAH4546 (reply 18):
AA will not get the service.

They have the most political support. That's what matters most


Yeah, and look at all of the political support United had, and have they gotten a government backed loan yet? Last time I checked, they were 0-3, despite the fact that the Speaker of the House was making calls to the Treasury Secretary. Can't get much more support than that...
 
MAH4546
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 1:40 pm

Quoting Thucydides (reply 21):
Yeah, and look at all of the political support United had, and have they gotten a government backed loan yet? Last time I checked, they were 0-3, despite the fact that the Speaker of the House was making calls to the Treasury Secretary. Can't get much more support than that...


There is a significant difference between financial support and support for getting a new route.
a.
 
Thucydides
Posts: 94
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Fri Feb 18, 2005 11:33 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (reply 22):
There is a significant difference between financial support and support for getting a new route.


Yes, there is a significant difference between a Memer of Congress, in United's case, the Speaker of the House personally calling the Treasury Secretary and a group of Members of Congress sending a letter to the Secretary of Transportation about a route authority. The letter goes into the file, the call gets returned and the Secretary must determine the impact on future requests that he and the President have of the Speaker. Not to mention that the United effort also included a large contingent of additional Members of Congress.

At the end of the day, the only way this political support would amount to anything would be if after all of the analysis is said and done, AA remains tied with CO or DL for authority. And then one would have to ask, what would the Secretary, and therefore the President, gain or lose by choosing between Texans arguing for Chicago route authorities and Georgians and other southerners arguing for ATL routes, or midatlantic/NYC representatives arguing for New Jersey based authorities.
 
goCOgo
Posts: 680
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Sat Feb 19, 2005 12:13 am

Quoting Thucydides (reply 23):
AA remains tied with CO or DL for authority


AA can't be tied with DL as they aren't competing for the same authority. I think CO has a (very) slight edge over AA for this year, and that CO and DL are pretty even for 2006. The biggest thing against CO for the 2006 authority would be their getting this year's, with some arguing that one carrier should not get both. Personally, though, with the market NYC has for China service, I think CO should should get the routes. How many travelers from Georgia, Florida, and surrounding area are there who fly to China? Shouldn't O&D rule in selecting who gets the routes? I could be totally wrong, and if someone has O&D figures for China for the Northeast/eastern Midwest versus the South, please correct me. I have no idea how to get international O&D numbers.
"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
 
Thucydides
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Sat Feb 19, 2005 1:08 am

GoCOgo:

While you are correct in saying that AA and DL are not directly competing for the authorities, the point that I was trying to make was that people should not make too big of a deal that AA is bosting the strongest political support, as it really won't matter unless everything else is equal and even then you have additional considerations.

You are right in that O&D is very important, but so is economic activity, and based on trade statistics with China, the states that would logically feed flights through ATL are on par with the states that would feed flights through EWR as well as through ORD. Given this, I would think that CO and DL have the best shot for the route authorities. CO benefits from both proposing flights out of a regional hub that also has strong O&D, while DL proposes routes from a hub drawing from a region that has no direct access and pretty significant trade flows.
 
The777Man
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Sat Feb 19, 2005 1:49 am

I fully agree with Thucydides; CO and DL would give the most public benefit and that's the critieria the DOT is supposed to go by when they make the decision. If that actually happens is a different question....

The777Man
Boeing 777s flown: UA, TG, KE, BA, CX, NH, JD, JL, CZ, SQ, EK, NG, CO, AF, SV, KU, DL, AA, MH, OZ, CA, MS, SU, LY, RG, PE, AZ, KL, VN, PK, EY, NZ, AM, BR, AC, DT, UU, OS, AI, 9W, KQ, QR, VA, JJ, ET, TK, PR, BG, T5, CI, MU and LX.. Further to fly.. LH 777
 
alb222
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Sat Feb 19, 2005 1:52 am

Although I agree that CO and DL offer the best scenarios and combined with offering new American flag carrier services where none exist, I think DL might lose out because they applied for 2006 authority. The 2006 authority can go to either a passenger or cargo carrier while the 2005 must go to a passenger carrier. It is conceivable that the 2006 award will go to a cargo carrier leaving DL in the dust.
 
102IAHexpress
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Sat Feb 19, 2005 9:03 am

As mentioned previously there are a total of 14 frequencies up for grabs. There are seven frequencies available for March 25, 2005 and seven frequencies available for March 25, 2006. The DOT will award all 14 frequencies probably sometime in early Mach, but this is just conjecture on my part.

As far as which airline or airlines will be awarded the authority, IMOP CO has the best shot; it’s a slam dunk really.

For the 2005 frequencies it’s between CO and AA, being that DL applied only for the 2006 frequencies and cargo companies were not permitted to apply for the 2005 frequencies. I find it difficult to believe that the DOT will award duplicate service out of Chicago, while the NYC metro area is not served by a U.S. flag carrier.

For the 2006 frequencies there is a little more competition as far as CO is concerned, but they will probably be award the remaining frequencies. IMOP I think CO’s competition will come from a cargo company probably DHL and not from DL. DL thinks service out of Atlanta is superior to CO’s service out of the NYC metro area, but that’s interesting considering DL didn’t think that was the case a few years back when they applied for China frequencies out of JFK. That year UPS was ultimately chosen to get the new frequencies over DL and AA, CO did not apply that time.

Just my two cents FWIW.
I finally decided to join a.net, and this is my first post!
 
alb222
Posts: 217
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Sat Feb 19, 2005 9:46 am

Quoting 102IAHexpress (reply 28):
For the 2005 frequencies it’s between CO and AA, being that DL applied only for the 2006 frequencies and cargo companies were not permitted to apply for the 2005 frequencies. I find it difficult to believe that the DOT will award duplicate service out of Chicago, while the NYC metro area is not served by a U.S. flag carrier.


First, welcome to ANet. Your post seems to imply that CO will win all 14 frequencies. Am I misreading something? Although I agree as stated b4, CO should get the 2005 frequencies, they will not get both. I do feel that a cargo carrier will get the 2006 frequencies. CO will not get both.
 
102IAHexpress
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RE: Shanghai , Beijing? CO/DL/AA?

Sat Feb 19, 2005 11:41 am

When the new frequencies are announced in a couple of weeks there will be a total of 19 frequencies up for grabs. Seven frequencies are guaranteed to a passenger airline, seven more could go to a passenger airline or a cargo airline, and the remaining five will go to a cargo airline. I will try to explain.

On March 25, 2006 U.S. cargo carriers could possibly have a total of 12 new flight frequencies from the US to China, seven frequencies from the US China bi-lateral agreement, and five frequencies from another agreement of which I am not that familiar with. Perhaps someone can post some info on that agreement? Forget about the five guaranteed cargo frequencies for a moment, the possible frequencies listed below are the ones the passenger airlines have to worry about.

Polar Air Cargo 3 frequencies
http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf90/297208_web.pdf

UPS 3 frequencies
http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf90/297229_web.pdf

Tradewinds airlines 7 frequencies I think, but not sure.
http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf90/297240_web.pdf

Evergreen International Airlines 7 frequencies
http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf90/297232_web.pdf

Gemini Air Cargo 7 frequencies I think, but not sure.
http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf90/297238_web.pdf

Federal Express 6 frequencies
http://dmses.dot.gov/docimages/pdf90/297244_web.pdf

In my opinion I think the cargo companies have more to gain from the new frequencies than passenger companies do, but nevertheless I think CO will be awarded all 14 frequencies. At the very least the cargo companies will get at least five frequencies even if CO is awarded all 14. How is this possible? Remember the cargo companies already have another agreement where there are five frequencies up for grabs. I think it’s more likely that CO will get all 14 frequencies, than a cargo company or companies getting awarded 12 frequencies. In an earlier post I stated that DHL is applying for frequencies but actually I don’t think they are.

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