leelaw
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EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:12 pm

Flight International 03/01/05:

"Taiwanese carrier questions the financial viability of the 772LR on ultra-long-haul services."

According to Lee Jen-Ling, Deputy Senior V.P. Corporate Planning, "...the airline is still evaluating whether ultra-long-haul services are financially viable....whether there would be sufficient demand for such services, or whether one-stop service would be better financially." The example cited by Ms. Jen-Ling is Taipei/New York.

According to the article EVA could switch it's order to the 773ER or 777F, and has until next year to make its decison, as deliveries of its firm order for three 772LRs don't commence until 2008.

[Edited 2005-02-28 11:23:55]

[Edited 2005-02-28 11:31:41]
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aerorobnz
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:17 pm

that would bugger things up for boeing. Is BR to 772LR as SQ was to M11?
Flown to 120 Airports in 44 Countries on 73 Operators. Visited 55 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
antares
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:25 pm

Well something is going on. SQ isn't moved by the 777-200LR yet clearly thrilled with the 777-300ER and Dixon was reported as querying the operating costs of the -200LR when he did a press interview after the last financial results in mid February.
 
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:29 pm

Quoting Leelaw (reply 0):
the airline is still evaluating whether ultra-long-haul services are financially viable....whether there would be sufficient demand for such services, or whether one-stop service would be better financially.


Am I naive in sort of assuming that they might have asked those questions BEFORE they placed the order?! Or have things changed?

60% of Boeing's 772LR backlog at risk! Wouldn't it be funny if nobody bought it?
 
QFA001
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:35 pm

Quoting Antares (reply 2):
Well something is going on.


This may be make or break time for the B772LR. There is a few airlines in the world that are currently deliberating the A345 or B772LR. So, 2005 may be the year that the B772LR proves fruitious or failure.
 
keesje
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:39 pm

On Singapore Airlines, I have the feeling they are using the A345/388 to give their products in F, C & M a next phase boost. Lounges, extra seatroom etc.

However other types must follow to safeguard product/service consistency.

Take the A380 roomy product specification on a 772LR and you don't have a lot of seats left (200-220?), sending seat/mile costs skyhigh.

Better put that product specification on a 773ER to get a reasonable load (240-250?) and probably most of the same LR destinations (by limiting TOW/cargo).
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ushermittwoch
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:46 pm

Quoting Leelaw (reply 0):
Flight International 03/01/05


Are you a psychic?  Big grin

Anyway, I don't see why EVA would really need a 777LR, because almost all markets that are worth exploring (and within unrestricted non-stop, max payload range) can be better served with the 777-300ER.
Where have all the tri-jets gone...
 
lutfi
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:50 pm

It is the B747SP reborn...

As everyone else says, it is very heavy (MTOW wise) & expensive to use, unless you really need it. Most will pass, and go for 772ER or 773ER instead, much better value for money
 
N79969
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:54 pm

If they go for the freighter, well then EVA would still be getting a 772LR. Since all 777s are built on the same assembly line, I think the impact on Boeing is negligible. The comparison to the MD-11 does not hold since that was a distinct type and not a variant.
 
leelaw
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:57 pm

Quoting Ushermittwoch (reply 6):
Are you a psychic?


If only I were...I have Flight International delivered online, it generally arrives late Sunday or early Monday...when some of the content is actually newsworthy.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 7:57 pm

Quoting QFA001 (reply 4):
2005 may be the year that the B772LR proves fruitious or failure.


I go for fruitious, definitely. Wink/being sarcastic
 
juventus
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:15 pm

Any other markets (passenger) in the USA or Europe that they might open? I was hoping for 777 service to ORD and IAH.
 
as739x
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:30 pm

Rely #3...60% of Boeing's 772LR backlog at risk! Wouldn't it be funny if nobody bought it?

Just like, Wouldn't be funny if the A380 never flew  Smile

The 777LR will do fine. This is one airline and if this planes is like the 773ER, once flight testing begins and it performs better then predicted then its game on!

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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 10:46 pm

Quoting PM (reply 3):
60% of Boeing's 772LR backlog at risk! Wouldn't it be funny if nobody bought it?


As stated in the original post, they could switch to 773ER or 772LRF. EVA already have 12 B773ER on firm order so any conversion would suit their current fleet planning. Somehow, I don't think we'll see no-one buying it.

Regards
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juventus
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Mon Feb 28, 2005 11:07 pm

I'm telling you, those 18 flights....I would be on suicide-watch at the end of one of those.
 
leelaw
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:01 am

Quoting Juventus (reply 11):
Any other markets (passenger) in the USA or Europe that they might open? I was hoping for 777 service to ORD and IAH.


If BR determines that New York/Taipei with the 772LR is not feasible, why would service to Chicago or Houston make any more sense?
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n757kw
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:11 am

I use to work for BR in Cargo. Back then, BR was looking for a 50/50 split of revenues between passenger and cargo. You can not load a lot of belly cargo on these long haul flights if they run full.

N757KW
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:25 am

K folks, couple of things:


First of all, this was easily predictable two years ago when they sent out the release that the twice (now quadruple) range/payload boost on the 773ER made flights to Paris and New York feasible for them with that aircraft.

Secondly, I called the switch to 772LRF the moment they moved their deliveries back to 2009.


Says practically nothing about the 772LR program in and of itself, particularly when this carrier placed orders five years ago.
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na
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:39 am

I second Concordeboy here. By 2009 Eva Air might need smaller freighters to replace the MD11fs and to play the minor role besides 747-400Fs/SFs.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:41 am

A lot of you are forgetting, all of the design costs of the -200LR have been covered by -300ER sales. Boeing could sell ZERO 777-200LRs and not lose a dime on the project.
 
The777Man
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:47 am

I think it's important to keep in mind that this is something that MAY happen. As of now, EVA Air (BR) still have 3 777-200LR on order.

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leelaw
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:48 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (reply 19):
Boeing could sell ZERO 777-200LRs and not lose a dime on the project.


What about costs specific to the 772LR program like flight test and certification?
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teamregal
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 2:54 am

Quoting NA (reply 18):
I second Concordeboy here. By 2009 Eva Air might need smaller freighters to replace the MD11fs and to play the minor role besides 747-400Fs/SFs.


And what smaller freighter are you referring to? Since when was the 777 "smaller" than the MD-11? The last time I checked, the two planes are pretty much about the same size with the 777 being a bit bigger.
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leelaw
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:05 am

Quoting TeamREGAL (reply 22):
And what smaller freighter are you referring to?


Perhaps he meant smaller than the 744, in the same size class as the MD11?
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atmx2000
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:10 am

Are they mainly concerned about the weight and increased fuel expenses for long haul services or the upfront cost of the aircraft, or both?
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avek00
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:19 am

"K folks, couple of things:


First of all, this was easily predictable two years ago when they sent out the release that the twice (now quadruple) range/payload boost on the 773ER made flights to Paris and New York feasible for them with that aircraft.

Secondly, I called the switch to 772LRF the moment they moved their deliveries back to 2009.


Says practically nothing about the 772LR program in and of itself, particularly when this carrier placed orders five years ago."

Nice try at damage control Fred - the bottom line is that if this comes to fruition, the 772LR will have fared even worse than the 764 or even 342, with only ONE airline operating the aircraft certeris paribus.
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na
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:25 am

leelaw,
thanks for stepping in. Of cause I meant that the 777LRF is smaller and therefore secondary to the 747-400F, not to the MD-11F. I thought I´d been clear about that.
 
cedarjet
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:26 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (reply 19):
A lot of you are forgetting, all of the design costs of the -200LR have been covered by -300ER sales. Boeing could sell ZERO 777-200LRs and not lose a dime on the project.


That makes no sense. A secretary working on the 777LR for an hour is a cost, let alone building the plane, flying it etc. The cost of the LR is tens of millions of dollars, or even more. The fact that Boeing may have made some money on the -300ER is great and if that's where the -200LR development cash is coming from, then good for Boeing. But if the -200LR is a failure, that money will have been wasted, even if it had been won in the lottery. Boeing can't afford a failed project, whatever the source of the cash.
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leelaw
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:28 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (reply 24):
Are they mainly concerned about the weight and increased fuel expenses for long haul services or the upfront cost of the aircraft, or both?


The article is brief, about 300 words. The author doesn't report or speculate on the specifics of why the 772LR wouldn't be "financially viable" for BR.

IMO, it's odd that BR would float this story with attribution before first flight and preliminary flight test results, if a decision to switch to alternative variants isn't required until next year.
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:30 am

Keesje:"Take the A380 roomy product specification on a 772LR and you don't have a lot of seats left (200-220?), sending seat/mile costs skyhigh."

Uhhh, except for the fact that the 777 has WAY lower costs than the 380 to begin with... duh... that's like saying an airline would be better off to fly an empty A380 than a full A330.... not quite adding up for me.
 
airbazar
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:35 am

A lot of you are forgetting, all of the design costs of the -200LR have been covered by -300ER sales. Boeing could sell ZERO 777-200LRs and not lose a dime on the project.

But somehow that same theory doesn't apply to the A345, right?  Acting devilish
 
Carfield
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:40 am

I really think it has nothing to do with the product itself, other than BR's own flight plans. I feel that BR may well that TPE-EWR nonstop may not be as profitable as TPE-SEA-EWR, and with 773ERs, it can provide better cargo support and this flight may indeed work. Or BR wants to continue to use the 747-400Combi on this route for a while. (Even LHR to cetain extent... maybe TPE-BKK-LHR make more sense thatn TPE-LHR nonstop. BR only has one long haul to Europe and that is Paris).

If TPE-EWR goes nonstop, BR then has to decide will TPE-SEA be successful in itself? What frequency will work? I somewhat feel that CI is more interested in ultra long haul especially to JFK.

With only three 777-200LR on order, it will not affect Boeing.

About SQ, has SQ made any firm orders of Boeing 777-200LR? I only recalled the -200ER, and -300ER...

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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:47 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (reply 19):
A lot of you are forgetting, all of the design costs of the -200LR have been covered by -300ER sales. Boeing could sell ZERO 777-200LRs and not lose a dime on the project.


While I believe a significant % of 772LR development costs have probably already been covered by the equivalent development costs of the 773ER (not sales as you say), the 772LR will certainly have unique development costs. Not least of which will be construction of aircraft for a full test and certification program.
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 3:59 am

Quoting Carfield (reply 31):
About SQ, has SQ made any firm orders of Boeing 777-200LR?

Nope.

SQ has "not evaluated Boeing's offer" and obviously will not formally do so until after test results are completed.
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widebodyphotog
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 4:07 am

Quoting N757KW (reply 16):
I use to work for BR in Cargo. Back then, BR was looking for a 50/50 split of revenues between passenger and cargo. You can not load a lot of belly cargo on these long haul flights if they run full.


If you're talking about a route such as TPE-JFK-TPE the 777-200LR could handle that with Max structural payload availible on the Eastbound segment and about 115,000lbs availible on the Westbound segment generally all year round. Both capacities would allow full cargo loads with a minimum 23t availible for cargo On the Westbound segment with a 300 person pax load. That's an estimate using typical winter enroute winds. With full pax you'd have about 6-7 pallets availible for cargo use.

The question EVA is asking is how much more revenue could they generate from additional cargo capacity using a larger aircraft vs the added cost of the technical stop that would be needed. For example you could add more than 57% more cargo in terms of availible lower deck positions by using a 777-300ER instead of the -200LR. You would also have potential greater passenger revenue, but you would have to weigh all of that against the cost of the stopover needed to make the route. With most routes over 7,000sm the cost of stopping vs the greater revenue potential of higher allowable payloads is fairly small. You can almost always make more money by stopping on a long haul route and carrying as much payload as possible than you can by doing a non-stop on a less capacious aircraft.

In that vein 777-200LR has made the revenue potential gap much smaller with it's extraordinary payload/range capability, but the fact is that more payload is more money. If the goal is to maximize revenues, especially from heavy cargo payloads then a stopover may be the way to go in this case. In terms of maximum structural payloads the 777-300ER holds a 6t advantage but can make better use of that payload because of the increased number of availible cargo positions. However, that increased capacity is increased exposure to trends in both the passenger and freight market, so that has to be taken into consideration as well.

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glideslope
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 5:27 am

Quoting Lutfi (reply 7):
It is the B747SP reborn...

As everyone else says, it is very heavy (MTOW wise) & expensive to use, unless you really need it. Most will pass, and go for 772ER or 773ER instead, much better value for money



You know, your right!! It's another SP.  Smile
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FriendlySkies
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 5:56 am

Scbriml, Cedarjet, Leelaw:

The 777-300ER and 777-200LR are part of the same general development program. As thus, many of the development costs are shared. Yes, the -200LR has individual costs, but those costs as well as the costs of the -300ER have been fully covered by -300ER sales. Boeing has already regained any money they lost on the -200LR, which was fairly cheap to begin with due to the -300ER being developed already. Therefore, they did not lose any money designing it, they simply didn't make as much. The cost of the -200LR is too insignificant to be a major blow if it fails. Therefore, it is almost a zero-risk project as any money put into the program has already gone back to Boeing.
 
keesje
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 6:25 am

The additional costs Boeing is making on top of the cost they made for the 300ER..

Well building 1 prototype alone is at least $250 miilion I guess. Certification related engineering, testing etc on top of that. Say total $350 million?

That could make a 772LR break-even of about 30 aircraft. Perhaps add 100 millions if a F versions (door/ floor strenghtening/ transportsystems/ recertification) has to be developped (however this could be an investment easying future freighter conversions).

IMO however no need to think nobody would be deeply pissed if the 772LR flopped.
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iowa744fan
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 6:29 am

Take the A380 roomy product specification on a 772LR and you don't have a lot of seats left (200-220?), sending seat/mile costs skyhigh.

This is compared with the 181 seats on the A345? SQ may have this roomy specifications on the A345/380 aircraft now, but if the 345s could carry many more passengers or they felt that there was greater pax demand on the 380s, they would put more seats in and return at least economy services to the standard of their fleet.
 
avek00
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 6:35 am

"SQ has "not evaluated Boeing's offer" and obviously will not formally do so until after test results are completed."

Which, interestingly enough, SQ did not feel the need to do vis-a-vis the A345 - wonder why they're waiting till the 772LR actually flies before considering an order...
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sunrisevalley
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 6:42 am

QFA001..reply #4...

Thus by implication, what does this imply for the A345 looking forward?
 
M27
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 6:53 am

"Which, interestingly enough, SQ did not feel the need to do vis-a-vis the A345 - wonder why they're waiting till the 772LR actually flies before considering an order..."

May not have cost them a great deal of money and or got a return it you don't like policy.
 
atmx2000
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 7:26 am

Which, interestingly enough, SQ did not feel the need to do vis-a-vis the A345 - wonder why they're waiting till the 772LR actually flies before considering an order...

Because when they ordered the A345 they didn't have a long range aircraft, and now they do?
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iowa744fan
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 7:33 am

Well building 1 prototype alone is at least $250 miilion I guess. Certification related engineering, testing etc on top of that. Say total $350 million?

That could make a 772LR break-even of about 30 aircraft. Perhaps add 100 millions if a F versions (door/ floor strenghtening/ transportsystems/ recertification) has to be developped (however this could be an investment easying future freighter conversions).


Going with your results: cost of $350 million translates to a break-even point of about 30 aircraft? Is this the same scale used on the A380 break-even point being placed at 250 aircraft?

Which, interestingly enough, SQ did not feel the need to do vis-a-vis the A345 - wonder why they're waiting till the 772LR actually flies before considering an order...

Or based upon past experience with new longhaul aircraft, they have become wary of performance promises?
 
keesje
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 7:43 am

Going with your results: cost of $350 million translates to a break-even point of about 30 aircraft? Is this the same scale used on the A380 break-even point being placed at 250 aircraft?

Iowa744Fan I don´t understand what you mean. The A380 is an all new design, the 772LR a derivative of the 773ER/772ER so only specific areas have to be fully recertified.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
iowa744fan
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 8:05 am

Keesje,

I am not arguing your figure of $350 million (hence the going with your results). I am just commenting on your calculation of 30 aircraft as the break-even point for a cost of $350 million.
 
bill142
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 8:12 am

Quoting Keesje (reply 37):

IMO however no need to think nobody would be deeply pissed if the 772LR flopped


I can think of one person.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 9:54 am

Quoting Avek00 (reply 39):
Which, interestingly enough, SQ did not feel the need to do vis-a-vis the A345

...um, from whence exactly do you derive that notion?



Quoting Bill142 (reply 46):
I can think of one person.

nah, I'm not all that concerned how it does in sales... I'm just happy the 777 will regain its rightful title of longest-ranged commercial aircraft from the A340  Big grin
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
trex8
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Varian

Tue Mar 01, 2005 10:10 am

>Even LHR to cetain extent... maybe TPE-BKK-LHR make more sense thatn TPE-LHR nonstop. BR only has one long haul to Europe and that is Paris

how do they route the paris flight?? over Russia and northerly or over India and the mid east
 
Rj111
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RE: EVA Air May Drop 772LR Orders For Other Variants

Tue Mar 01, 2005 10:20 am

Therefore, they did not lose any money designing it, they simply didn't make as much.

Word it however you like, until Boeing sells enough 772LR's to justify the R&D cost that are unique to the 772LR, the 772LR has lost money for Boeing. It is of course, a very trivial amount and it could well break even during it's life, it also helps support the 773ER sales.

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