awschucksflyer
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Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 1:31 am

In an internal memo, Air Canada is looking to place an order for 50 widebody aircraft over the next few months. The airline is looking at either the A350 or B787 (for delivery in 2010). The airline is looking for funding from either Boeing or Airbus to retro-fit existing B767 with new seats, in-seat tv's, and adding winglets to the 767, the latter the most interesting.

Let the debate begin!
 
backfire
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 1:36 am

The debate will probably be: Did you, or did you not, use the 'search' button?  Wink
 
yvrtoyyz
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 1:49 am

 
Trvlr
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 2:44 am

How old is this "internal memo"?

Aaron G.
 
beechnut
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 2:49 am

You can read it here yourself in the AC employee newsletter

http://www.achorizons.ca/en/issues/2005/NewHorizons.pdf

Mike
 
AA777
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 10:26 pm

Ooh... 787 here we come. This is an order Boeing realllly cant afford to lose in my opinion... 50 airliners? Plus they already have the 767.... would make sense for them to stick w/ boeing for that size of an airliner... but then they also have the 340 / 330, so its really a toss-up. My guess is that they'll swing Boeing... esp since the 330 and 350 are really not all THAT different................ just my speculation though.

-AA777
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 10:42 pm

If AC orders 50 B-787s, could this be the end of the A-350? I think the A-350 only has about 10 orders.

Or is it more likely that Air Canada splits the order for 25 B-787s and 25 A-350s?

The winglet proposal on the B-767s is interesting.
 
Thrust
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 10:48 pm

How much longer before AA buys the 787? they have $2.9 billion in cash right now...I'm just surprised they have not already placed an order for a small amount like CO did...I definitely agree that AC is more likely to choose the 787 mainly because it is so much more advanced than the A350, I guess....is the A350 to feature a bleedless air system and engines like the 787? If not, I'm almost certain who the winner is  Wink As for the winglet proposal on the Boeing 767, I would love to see that....but what would they do that raked wingtips cannot do?
Fly one thing; Fly it well
 
United Airline
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:10 pm

Wonder if they will order any 2nd hand B 747-400s, B 747 Advanced or even the A 380 eventually.......
 
hz747300
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:12 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
Or is it more likely that Air Canada splits the order for 25 B-787s and 25 A-350s?

Why would they split the order? That would not make any sense--they will pick one or the other.
Keep on truckin'...
 
Udo
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:13 pm

I expect Boeing to win this order, simply because the B787 offers more flexibility. AC can use B788/789 for long hauls and as a B767-300ER replacement, while B783 can be used efficiently on domestic and Caribbean runs.


Regards
Udo
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fraT
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:20 pm



Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 9):
Why would they split the order? That would not make any sense--they will pick one or the other.

Because they split the most recent regional jet order between Embraer and Bombardier. Why shouldn't something like that happen again?
 
NYC777
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:26 pm

Interesting, in the newsletter article, it says that AC expects to make a decision by the end of this month.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
whitehatter
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:30 pm

My  twocents  is 787, on capacity grounds. A straight replacement for the 767 aircraft, and the A350 is possibly too much plane for some of their route network.

AC have been doing a general downsizing of capacity, and adding more with a jump from 763 seat numbers might not be the best idea for the carrier and its markets.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
DeltaWings
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:43 pm

AC can use B788/789 for long hauls and as a B767-300ER replacement, while B783 can be used efficiently on domestic and Caribbean runs.

I agree. The 787 is a better 767 replacement, because of it's size. The A350 is no 762 replacement, it's too big, not like the 788. And if they want a bigger version they can get the 789. They will all be one family, so it would make things easier.


~DeltaWings
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lawgman
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Thu Mar 10, 2005 11:44 pm

Does anyone believe Boeing will win this order? My guess is that Airbus will do whatever it takes to get this order. The only thing that I think gives Boeing a fighting chance is the fact the 787-800 and 900 may be better sizing for AC than the larger 350s.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 8):
Wonder if they will order any 2nd hand B 747-400s, B 747 Advanced or even the A 380 eventually

AC got rid of their 747-400s last year and I don't think they will ever order the 380. These aircraft are too big. The biggest we will see from AC would be 340-600 / 777-300 sizing.
 
KL808
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:44 am

How about pricing? Wouldnt Airbus give a better discount since they would be the 2nd airline to order it after Air Europa. Is discounting by Boeing already done for launch customers for the B787?

Drew
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yul332LX
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 12:58 am



Quoting DeltaWings (Reply 14):
The A350 is no 762 replacement, it's too big, not like the 788. And if they want a bigger version they can get the 789. They will all be one family, so it would make things easier.

The A358 and 788 will have virtually the same seating capacity so this is pointless. The A359 is a perfect match for the A333/343; the 789 is not (unless it gets the three-row stretch)
E volavo, volavo felice più in alto del sole, e ancora più su mentre il mondo pian piano spariva lontano laggiù ...
 
DIA
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:34 am

Okay, I'll walk out on the limb then. . .

I think this one will be going to Boeing and the 787. Just want to get that out there. . .oh, and the 787 would be a perfect match for them too.  box 

[Edited 2005-03-10 17:35:23]

Specifically commenting on ONLY the 787/A350 order, not the 777/A340 order!

[Edited 2005-03-10 17:48:43]
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sebring
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:39 am

For the upteenth time, this order will be for two, not one aircraft types. It will either be a combination of Boeing 777/787s, or Airbus 346/350s. And yes, Air Canada does want to have a bit more capacity than it gets from a 343 or 345 for routes like Toronto-London, Toronto-Frankfurt, Montreal-Paris and Vancouver-Tokyo. The reason it got rid of 747s was that the all-passenger models had too much capacity for year-round operations and the combis had poor overall economics. But a 325-seat aircraft like the 773 or 346 would work very nicely on AC's route network.

My guess is that this deal will have about 90 orders and options, split about 60/30. AC has about 70 widebodies now. The 787/350 component is about 50 units, plus 10 or so for growth, while the 777/346 component would be about 20 units, plus 10 or so for growth. AC needs capacity starting next year, and since the 787 won't be flying in commercial service for another few years, the front end aircraft (777/346) is very important.

What AC has asked Boeing and Airbus to do is quote on the replacement of the entire widebody fleet, plus growth aircraft. Obviously, this is a long-term replacement program since AC has some fairly new 767s, ergo the proposal to have the winning bidder fund the installation of winglets and interior cabin refits for that portion of the 767 fleet that will last well into the next decade. However, I am of the view that AC will also have the winner re-market some of its current larger widebodies - the 343s and 345s in particular, but not necessarily the 333s - which shouldn't be hard to do since you can hardly find a decent sized Airbus widebody on the used market these days.

Also, Air Canada will not order several Boeing or Airbus variants. It does not want the 777-200ER, the 777-300ER, the 777-200LR, the 777-200... It will order at most two of these and possibly only one (the 777-300ER). Similarly, with Airbus, it would order the 346-HGW and keep the 333. It would in all likelihood get rid of all 343. The airline has stated a preference for simplicity - not complexity. It finds more value in having an interchangeable fleet rather than one with the perfect A market, B market, C market mix. It does not want to have a situation where the inbound London-Toronto flight (let's say its a 777-300ER) lands with a problem and can't go back out to London, and all it has is a domestic 777 available as a spare). It wants the ability to take any widebody and send it overseas in place of that 777, which AC believes will optimize utilization. What it loses in unit operating efficiency (running a 773ER on a five-hour flight, for example), it believes it can get back through higher unit utilization (not having aircraft sit because they can't do particular missions as required).
 
Bicoastal
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 1:58 am

Does anyone know if any Airbus and/or Boeing components are made in Canada?
Airliners.net has many forums. It has spell check and search functions. Use them before posting!
 
lawgman
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:10 am



Quoting Bicoastal (Reply 20):
Does anyone know if any Airbus and/or Boeing components are made in Canada?

There will be zero consideration as to whether any components of the planes will be built in Canada. This issue is a non-starter. If it were, Air Canada would not have ordered the 100+ Embraer planes. All variations of the CRJ are assembled in Canada and I believe that the 717 had components built in Canada.
 
NYC777
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:11 am

I think Boeing Canada has some work for the 787.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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clickhappy
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:15 am

The 787 is quite a bit cheaper than the A350, isn't it?
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:26 am

For the upteenth time, this order will be for two, not one aircraft types. It will either be a combination of Boeing 777/787s, or Airbus 346/350s.

For the "umpteenth" time? Who are you to predict the future, let alone stifle other opinions? Until the order is placed, no one knows what the breakdown will be. Whether all 787, a mix of 787/777 with several 777 models, or ditto on the Airbus side.

Your guess is no better than anyone else's.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
sebring
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:33 am

Actually, my "guess" is a lot better than yours because I have a source on the AC committee making the decision. Not that he's going to give the slightest clue about the identity of the winner, but he has certainly given me the head's up on how the RFP was presented to A and B. Is it stifling other opinions to share that insight?
 
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yyz717
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:40 am

Actually, my "guess" is a lot better than yours because I have a source on the AC committee making the decision. Not that he's going to give the slightest clue about the identity of the winner, but he has certainly given me the head's up on how the RFP was presented to A and B.

Well, I wonder how AC would feel about that AC committee member leaking details? You are putting his job at risk. As is he.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
N1120A
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:43 am



Quoting Udo (Reply 10):
AC can use B788/789 for long hauls and as a B767-300ER replacement, while B783 can be used efficiently on domestic and Caribbean runs.

Or just use the 788 on all of them
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sebring
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:46 am

Maybe, but since another AC source - not the same as mine - gave out similar details at a meeting of FlyerTalk frequent flyers in Toronto last Friday, it doesn't seem to be a closely guarded secret. Moreover, there are even rumors on AEF today as to the identity of the winner. I, however, have well-founded doubts that the decision has been made, and therefore I am not repeating the rumor.
 
YOWguy
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:48 am

Only Robert Milton knows which way he will select...whether it be Airbus, Boeing or a mix of both. He is trying to get the most for AC's money.

At the top of his list, is improving links to Asia , as he sees this as a growth market.

http://www.achorizons.ca/Flash/en/default2.asp
 
A388
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:18 am



Quoting YOWguy (Reply 29):
At the top of his list, is improving links to Asia , as he sees this as a growth market.

Which airline doesn't see Asia as a growth market  Big grin

A388  Smile
 
dalecary
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:22 am

Sebring,

can you tell us what you would regard as the best mix for AC here? I would still regard a split order as a viable option as the 340 is incumbent and if they order 50+10 787 and 20+10 340 then both subfleets are large enough to be economically viable. Your numbers are a fair bit larger than what I have heard(my figures don't include options). The numbers I have heard are for roughly 30 787/350, 10 772LR/345 and 5 773ER/346. I don't think these are state secrets.
The key to this order seems to be whether it will be a winner take all approach, which can only favour Airbus, as an incumbent. I can't help but feel,however, that the 787 is far and away the better choice as a 767 replacement, both size-wise and overall economically-wise. Airbus will have to sweeten the deal considerably to win the whole order IMO.
A key order for both manufacturers and a very tricky one to predict.
 
milan320
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:28 am



Quoting Bicoastal (Reply 20):
Does anyone know if any Airbus and/or Boeing components are made in Canada?

Check the Airbus site for suppliers, I think Goodrich is mentioned for the A380s' landing gear.
Plus some unmentioned ones, including some cabin components too somewhere around Montreal, according to a guy I spoke with at the pub (but he was drunk and so was I - but he said he worked on the cabin stairs for the A380).

There's another one called PCO Technologies, don't know what they do, but their website mentions work for Airbus. And some other ones too.

/Milan320
I accept bribes ... :-)
 
sunnyb
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:30 am

I vote for A350 because it only makes sense to save maintenance, training and other costs.
 
SNATH
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:33 am



Quoting Dalecary (Reply 31):
10 772LR/345

Very interesting! I assume these ultra-long range ones would be for services from the East Coast to Asia?

Tony
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dalecary
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:41 am

Can anyone repeat the AEF rumour that Sebring doesn't is hesitant to do?
I don't even know what AEF is.
 
KL808
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:42 am

I believe too that some how IMHO that AC will go for the A350, because of cost.

Cost in a sense that Airbus will give a discount for being the second Launch customer. If AC orders the B787 are they still considered a launch customer? Will they receive the same discounts as earlier launch customers?
So I think cost to purchase the aircrafts will be a big determining factor.

If this does happen then we will see A346 ordered too. With simplicity in mind and AC leaning more toward an Airbus fleet I doubt we would see a split order.

Drew

EDIT: By the way AC still has 3 A340-600 on outstanding order right? If they do then Airbus already has a bit of a lead in my opinion.

[Edited 2005-03-10 22:58:14]
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yul332LX
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 6:45 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 23):
The 787 is quite a bit cheaper than the A350, isn't it?

It is but in this case, the A350 might very well be cheaper for AC considering that Air Canada would be the prime launch customer for this type and therefore, would be entitled the usual heavy discount off the list price.

Throw in the A346s already ordered and you get an interesting combo there.

[Edited 2005-03-10 22:47:47]
E volavo, volavo felice più in alto del sole, e ancora più su mentre il mondo pian piano spariva lontano laggiù ...
 
sebring
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 7:56 am

Sebring,

can you tell us what you would regard as the best mix for AC here? I would still regard a split order as a viable option as the 340 is incumbent and if they order 50+10 787 and 20+10 340 then both subfleets are large enough to be economically viable. Your numbers are a fair bit larger than what I have heard(my figures don't include options). The numbers I have heard are for roughly 30 787/350, 10 772LR/345 and 5 773ER/346. I don't think these are state secrets.
The key to this order seems to be whether it will be a winner take all approach, which can only favour Airbus, as an incumbent. I can't help but feel,however, that the 787 is far and away the better choice as a 767 replacement, both size-wise and overall economically-wise. Airbus will have to sweeten the deal considerably to win the whole order IMO.


I don't see a split between the manufacturers. The way to maximize benefit (lowest prices, most benefits) is to conduct a winner-take-all approach. The fact AC has large Airbus widebodies now doesn't mean it can't offload them as part of a switch to Boeing, just as the fact AC has a large fleet of 767s doesn't mean it can't dump them all for A350s if Airbus is the winner. This is an order meant to cover the next two decades of widebody flying, to replace existing aircraft and provide aircraft for growth (and AC will need growth aircraft by next year; it can hardly find a used 343, and lease rates are up 30-40% for used widebody aircraft since the market bottomed in early 2002.) Even good-quality 763s are becoming hard to find.
 
PennPal
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 8:14 am

Just an observation, but here's another thread regarding a major aircraft order, where most of the opinions are that the Boeing product would better suit the airline's needs, but the consensus is that Airbus will win the battle solely because their product is cheaper. No wonder the airlines are in trouble!


My feelings?? Air Canada ordering Boeings??? Won't happen!!
 
QFA001
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 8:20 am

 
United Airline
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:31 am

Quoting Lawgman (Reply 15):

Well they got rid of them partly because of engine deals. Heard that AC is interested in P/W powered second hand B 747-400s.

Not sure if they still do....
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:49 am

Quoting Sebring (Reply 19):
ergo the proposal to have the winning bidder fund the installation of winglets and interior cabin refits for that portion of the 767 fleet that will last well into the next decade

There was a recent thread that AirNZ had looked at cabin refits for their 767-300ER but had decided against it since there would be an increase in weight which would made it uneconomic. AiNZ's stage length with their -300ER's is probably longer in most cases than A.C.'s so it might not present the same problems to AC.
 
sebring
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 9:56 am

I guess it all depends how you reconfigure the cabin. Adding in PTVs probably adds weight, but who is to say that the seat type you buy can't offset some of that weight gain. Considering that AC uses its 763s as prime international aircraft, flying them on stage lengths of 12 hours and a bit more, the PTV capability is probably a must to remain competitive. But that is just my speculation.
 
L-188
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 10:00 am

Quoting YUL332LX (Reply 37):
t is but in this case, the A350 might very well be cheaper for AC considering that Air Canada would be the prime launch customer for this type and therefore, would be entitled the usual heavy discount off the list price.

Entitled, no.

No carrier is "entitled" to a discount.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
ac7e7
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:14 pm

Quoting KL808 (Reply 36):
By the way AC still has 3 A340-600 on outstanding order right? If they do then Airbus already has a bit of a lead in my opinion.

I believe AC's A340-600 order can be cancelled without penalty.

Quoting L-188 (Reply 44):
Entitled, no.

No carrier is "entitled" to a discount.

As one of the launch carriers, it is normal practice to offer airlines very steep discounts.
 
EnviroTO
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:43 pm

My bet is that Air Canada is leaning towards Boeing and it will all come down to the discounts Airbus gives. Milton had been interested in the 777 before but a combined narrow body and wide body purchase with big discounts led to Air Canada having Airbus in its wide body fleet. Further indication that Air Canada is leaning Boeing is the combining of the order to include a purchase of A340/777 and Boeing 767 upgrades with the A350/787 order. To me that reads we aren't hooked on A340 so we will group it in with this order and we want to upgrade our Boeings... anyone bidding an expert on Boeings? I think that if Air Canada isn't simply buying A340s separate from this order than that says a lot. Just my opinion.
 
NYC777
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Sat Mar 12, 2005 4:41 am

I don't know about ''better'' but the A350 wing will feature more composite than the 787.

The 787 wing is supposed to be all composite so I don't know how the A350 wing is going to feature more composites?
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
gigneil
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Sat Mar 12, 2005 4:46 am

The 787's wing is not going to be all composite, and the A350 wing does actually feature more composites.

That being said, of course the 787 is more composite overall.

N
 
AC320
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RE: Air Canada To Place Large Widebody Order

Sat Mar 12, 2005 5:06 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 2010 about the same time when the A350 should be about ready? While the details haven't been completely set in stone yet, Airbus seems to promise the same or very close performance compared to the 787 from the odd snippets I've caught here. Considering we still have relatively little information, debating 787 vs A350 seems relatively pointless.

The competition however, seems relatively close.The EMB order shows AC is without a doubt not a complete slave to the commonality concept, but they're public statements indicate a positive relationship with Airbus and their business model considering the public praise and subsequent smack-down of Boeing's sales and negotiating practices.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say this is Airbus' order to lose. AC already appreciates the ability of Airbus to be more flexible than Boeing in past negotiations. AC's order would be a huge boost of confidence in the A350 program, so I think Airbus will pull out all the stops for this one. I would love to fly on the wall during the negotiations because this can easily go to Boeing as well, considering the EMB order did surprise me. We'll just have to wait and see, and hope for some more interesting and reliable tidbits to be unveiled.
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