keesje
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Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:08 pm


Although the Boeing Co. plans at least three versions of its 787, it now appears that only the longer-range 787-8 will be coming off the assembly line in Everett before 2010.

Only two airlines, All Nippon and Japan Airlines, have publicly committed to the 787-3

While customer interest in the 787-8 has been strong, Boeing also has acknowledged that it is getting pressure from some airlines that want it to develop the stretched 787-9 sooner rather than later.

The first two years of production slots for the 787 already are filled with orders for the 787-8 model, the spokeswoman said.

Meanwhile, the 767 is nearing the end of production as a commercial jetliner. Only 21 767s remain to be delivered to customers.


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/217151_air23.html


So it seems if you want to order the 783/8/9 now, you have to wait 5 years.

IMO 5 years is pretty long these days. Time to delivery seems to be more in the 1-2 year bracket, airlines building up for an expected economic growth period until the end of this decade.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:09 pm

For heaven's sake, please respect the manufacturer's own model designations. It's the -3 and -9. Why do you keep on adding the 2 0's?
 
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PM
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:26 pm

Quoting Dynkrisolo (Reply 1):
For heaven's sake, please respect the manufacturer's own model designations. It's the -3 and -9. Why do you keep on adding the 2 0's?

But it's inevitable, isn't it? If BA buy the 787-8, it'll be the 787-836, won't it? The ANA 787-3s will be 787-381s, surely. The ANZ planes will be 787-819s and so on. Whatever Boeing are trying to do with the -3, -8 and -9, they will in reality becom the -300, -800 and -900.

Though, alas, we'll never see any 787-857s...  crying 
 
as739x
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:00 pm

Keesje...its 5 years yes, but the airlines know this going into the order. Its a more then a new airplane, its a new concept. Its going to take longer, its inevitable. Even the A380 was faster cause it was new material and stuff. It was a new design. The 787, as you, with the composites takes longer to perfect. And 5 years I dont think 5 years is really that long regarding some of these struggling carriers. At least for us Boeing lovers this will keep the 777 orders coming.

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DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:03 pm

Dumb move, Boeing. This will give Airbus a strategic opportunity to pry open the door for the A-350. Airlines like Etihad, Singapore and Emirates that were clamoring for the -9 are going to order the A-350 instead now. What the hell is Boeing thinking?  blockhead 
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dynkrisolo
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:05 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
But it's inevitable, isn't it? If BA buy the 787-8, it'll be the 787-836, won't it? The ANA 787-3s will be 787-381s, surely.

But you're assuming that Boeing will continue to use the customer codes. Will they? Perhaps they will, perhaps they won't. Until they do so, I think it's a good practice to use the manufacturer's own designations.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:07 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 4):
Dumb move, Boeing. This will give Airbus a strategic opportunity to pry open the door for the A-350. Airlines like Etihad, Singapore and Emirates that were clamoring for the -9 are going to order the A-350 instead now. What the hell is Boeing thinking? blockhead

Well, let's look at it realistically...

If the first 2 years are to build the 787-8 that have already been pre-paid and building slots are filled by, why would Boeing say that they could offer the 787-9 and 787-3? If that are already booked, they are booked.. can't put an aircraft in whre there isn't room for them.. for real..

Seems like Boeing is trying to be HONEST!!! something most companies don't know or understand.
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:08 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
IMO 5 years is pretty long these days. Time to delivery seems to be more in the 1-2 year bracket, airlines building up for an expected economic growth period until the end of this decade

It's a shame that will apply to the A350 as well.

Regards
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keesje
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:10 pm

Probably not DAYflyer, the 350 will be available after 2010 as far as I know. However 2002-2009 seem to be the golden years for the A330 with no real competition.


Quoting AS739X (Reply 3):
And 5 years I dont think 5 years is really that long regarding some of these struggling carriers

I suppose you mean the US market. Boeing nor Airbus sees this as a key market at this moment. It's happenig in Asia.

Looking at 2004/05 orders, it becomes clear many of these airlines want them now, not in 5 years.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:32 pm

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 6):
If that are already booked, they are booked.. can't put an aircraft in whre there isn't room for them.. for real..

The slots that are booked for the first two years included the 787-3 slots that ANA and JAL had already ordered. Hence, now the slots will be available since the plane will not be available until 2010.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
Looking at 2004/05 orders, it becomes clear many of these airlines want them now, not in 5 years.

My point precisely. The A-330 will get immediate need orders and the A-350 will now be seen as very competitive to the 787 as the time of availability has now changed-they are now identical.

The big advantage the 787 had was it being available two full years before the A-350. Now, that advantage is gone for these two variants. That WILL impact sales of both companies; Airbus positively, and Boeing negatively.
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NYC777
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:36 pm

The 787-9 wasn't supposed to be ready until 2012 I thought. It sounds like they did move up the time frame by two years.
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keesje
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:23 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 9):
That WILL impact sales of both companies; Airbus positively, and Boeing negatively.

Well the 787-8 is significant smaller then the proposed 350-800. So it will have a unique selling point.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
PHXinterrupted
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:03 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
IMO 5 years is pretty long these days. Time to delivery seems to be more in the 1-2 year bracket, airlines building up for an expected economic growth period until the end of this decade.

That's not very long for a brand new plane.

You know Keesje, if you ever said anything positive about Boeing, you might give some of us a stroke!
Keepin' it real.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:52 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Well the 787-8 is significant smaller then the proposed 350-800. So it will have a unique selling point.

What are the A-350 specs? Do you have a link or other info on it?
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Rj111
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:57 am

DayFlyer, i sent you them about a month ago. Don't you trust me?

[Edited 2005-03-23 17:58:31]
 
CX747
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 2:18 am

So, the first 2 years of production are sold out and this is a bad thing? This program is a success so far and seems to be on the right track regardless of a delay or two. I don't see airlines flocking to buy A330s and A350s that will be regarded as old technology as soon as the 787-3/8/9 enter the revenue earning world.
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atmx2000
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 4:20 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 4):
What the hell is Boeing thinking?

Apparently they are thinking that they can get additional data from the 787-8 flight testing and EIS and apply that to the 787-9. The 787-9 faces more direct competition in terms of range and capacity, and could benefit from refinements from actual real world experience and performance data.
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DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:55 am

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
But it's inevitable, isn't it? If BA buy the 787-8, it'll be the 787-836, won't it?

No, there is a good probability that "customer codes" will go the wayside. The 787 is designed with few options, and nearly all options are reversable (including the engines!). A 787-8 could swap hands from United to American Airlines with no compromise in configuration.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
IMO 5 years is pretty long these days. Time to delivery seems to be more in the 1-2 year bracket, airlines building up for an expected economic growth period until the end of this decade.

Keesje: as the LOT order shows perfectly airlines are no longer accepting bids for the A332. LOT rejected the A332 and requested a bid for the 787 and A350 only. Any airline looking at long-term fleet planning will simply not consider the A330, end of story.

At this point, the A330-200/300 will (at best) gain add-on orders from existing customers. Maybe one or two new (minor) customers, but long-term strategic customers are no-where to be found.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 9):

The big advantage the 787 had was it being available two full years before the A-350. Now, that advantage is gone for these two variants

Those two years are sold-out, so for any customers looking to buy today... there is no advantage for either OEM
 
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:05 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
However 2002-2009 seem to be the golden years for the A330 with no real competition.

Really? How many orders have been placed for the A330 since Airbus announced the launch of the A350? How do A330 orders/commitments since 1/1/2004 compare to 787 orders/commitments? How many airlines are going to be eager to order airframes that will lose a significant percentage of their resale value once the A350 begins flying?

And if you want the A350 in 2010, you will have the choice of GE engines or GE engines.

I guess I don't get the negative spin here.* Demand for the 787 has been good enough that Boeing has filled the production slots for the first two years while only needing to offer one model. Wow, how terrible for Boeing!!!

* (Actually, I do, since this topic was started by Keesje. If Boeing announced orders that filled the 787 production slots for 2010 through 2012, he'd spin it as being bad for Boeing because airlines would have no choice but to order the A350.)
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:07 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 18):
And if you want the A350 in 2010, you will have the choice of GE engines or GE engines.

Rolls Royce will be onboard before long. I question whether they will go with Pratt or not... everyone and their brother has been screwed by the commercial division at some point.
 
N60659
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:17 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 17):
the LOT order shows perfectly airlines are no longer accepting bids for the A332. LOT rejected the A332 and requested a bid for the 787 and A350 only.

This may be slightly off-topic, but DfwRevolution's statement reminded me that earlier this year AI had expressed an interest in the A330-200 for it's fleet renewal:

http://www.airindia.com/article.asp?articleid=259.

Is this still valid or have they expressed a desire to acquire the A350? Any clarification would be most appreciated.
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DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:17 am

Quoting N60659 (Reply 20):
This may be slightly off-topic, but DfwRevolution's statement reminded me that earlier this year AI had expressed an interest in the A330-200 for it's fleet renewal:

The A350 was included as well
 
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:38 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 17):
Keesje: as the LOT order shows perfectly airlines are no longer accepting bids for the A332. LOT rejected the A332 and requested a bid for the 787 and A350 only. Any airline looking at long-term fleet planning will simply not consider the A330, end of story.

At this point, the A330-200/300 will (at best) gain add-on orders from existing customers. Maybe one or two new (minor) customers, but long-term strategic customers are no-where to be found.

That is a valid point though I believe the A330 will still have slightly better prospects for a few years to come. I think what Keesje was trying to point to was Air China and China Eastern's recent large A330 orders which are a good example of where demand needs to be met with deliveries from 2006 onwards. I feel that though we'll see more RFPs similar to LOTs which exclude the A330 we will continue to see some substantial A330 orders yet, including add on orders you refer to.

Just my $.02

Regards
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QFA001
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 8:36 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 9):
The slots that are booked for the first two years included the 787-3 slots that ANA and JAL had already ordered. Hence, now the slots will be available since the plane will not be available until 2010.

That is not correct. From the outset NH specified that it would take -3s from 2010 onwards. Boeing was going to fill the 2008-09 slots with -3s or -8s. As it turned out, they were able to do it with -8s.

Quote:
The big advantage the 787 had was it being available two full years before the A-350. Now, that advantage is gone for these two variants. That WILL impact sales of both companies; Airbus positively, and Boeing negatively.

Rubbish. For starters, the B787-3 market is limited and Airbus hasn't bothered competing with it. Second, both the A350-900 and B787-9 are fluid products. As of right now they are intended to enter service at around the same time.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Well the 787-8 is significant smaller then the proposed 350-800. So it will have a unique selling point.

Not much of one. The B788 is about the same size compared to the A358 as the A333/343 is to the B772. Both B788 and A358 will be entertained by the same market.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 17):
...as the LOT order shows perfectly airlines are no longer accepting bids for the A332. LOT rejected the A332 and requested a bid for the 787 and A350 only. Any airline looking at long-term fleet planning will simply not consider the A330, end of story.

I don't believe that LO has ruled out the A332 as an interim option. One of Airbus' key advantages is being able to offer A330s as an interim for A350s, as they did with the UX A350 commitment.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 18):
How many orders have been placed for the A330 since Airbus announced the launch of the A350?

In the first two months of 2005, Airbus sold four -200s and six -300s. If anything, the A350 shows customers that the A330 is not a dead-end. There will be more sales, particularly China (and India?) during 2005.

Quote:
How many airlines are going to be eager to order airframes that will lose a significant percentage of their resale value once the A350 begins flying?

It won't be a large population of airlines but there will be some.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:29 am

Quoting QFA001 (Reply 23):
That is not correct. From the outset NH specified that it would take -3s from 2010 onwards. Boeing was going to fill the 2008-09 slots with -3s or -8s. As it turned out, they were able to do it with -8s.

Thanks for the clarification. My understanding was the ANA order included -3 varients for delivery during 2008-9.
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TradewindL1011
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:32 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 17):
No, there is a good probability that "customer codes" will go the wayside. The 787 is designed with few options, and nearly all options are reversible (including the engines!). A 787-8 could swap hands from United to American Airlines with no compromise in configuration.

Well, let's not jump to conclusions here. There are still many different configurations that the 787 could have, to name just a few the entire cabin comes to mind. This includes the placement of galleys, lavs, bulkheads and the corresponding seating, as well as IFE. This will have a large impact on the placement of many pipes and wires thus altering the internal state of the aircraft more than one would think. Furthermore avionics have and will play a large role in aircraft configurations. Many customers place very specific requests on the way their flight decks are configured and what systems will and will not be used (as well as what types of systems they shall use). TWA and there 757s comes to mind. Therefore I don't want to place any judgements concerning this issue squarely on just engine swapping and the newly announced standard issue Electronic Flight Bags. Let's not forget how Boeing has gone so far with the retention of the 7-7 nomenclature. I will believe what Boeing ends up doing when I see it (either when production lists are released or Boeing themselves states that they are dispensing with a very unique tradition begun with the 707).
 
Amy
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:32 am

Quoting Dynkrisolo (Reply 1):
For heaven's sake, please respect the manufacturer's own model designations. It's the -3 and -9. Why do you keep on adding the 2 0's?

I don't think Boeing would change the way their aircraft are designated. The 787 was the 7E7 but that didn't mean it would end up that way. I would expect to see Boewing 787-381s and the like.
A340-300 - slow, but awesome!
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:18 pm

Quoting Amy (Reply 26):
I would expect to see Boewing 787-381s and the like.

It really wouldn't suprise me either, but no doubt, the "customer code" will carry less importance/meaning with the 787

Quoting TradewindL1011 (Reply 25):
Therefore I don't want to place any judgements concerning this issue squarely on just engine swapping and the newly announced standard issue Electronic Flight Bags.

I'm not. I'm basing my opinions on Allan Mullay's on the record comments that the 787 will be available with a fraction of the options of previous Boeings, with more standardized features and simplified reconfiguration.

Quoting TradewindL1011 (Reply 25):
Let's not forget how Boeing has gone so far with the retention of the 7-7 nomenclature.

Well just the -3 and -8/9 throws traditional nomenclature out the window. Any other day, the 787 variants would be 787-200, 787-200ER, 787-300ER

Hell the 7-7 system began by pure luck of the draw.
 
keesje
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:15 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 27):
I'm basing my opinions on Allan Mullay's on the record comments that the 787 will be available with a fraction of the options of previous Boeings, with more standardized features and simplified reconfiguration.

Boeing is promoting standardization as long as we know them.

It is also a trap for them. Ask airlines; "inflexible", "they tell us what we want", "internal focus" etc. qualifications are around the corner.

Airbus has been able to set itself apart by "listening to the customer" , "customer working groups" etc. because Boeing gave/ gives the market the impression "don't tell us what you want, we know better & will tell you"..

If you think I'm biased, pls ask around...
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Fri Mar 25, 2005 2:06 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 28):
Airbus has been able to set itself apart by "listening to the customer" , "customer working groups" etc. because Boeing gave/ gives the market the impression "don't tell us what you want, we know better & will tell you"..

If you think I'm biased, pls ask around...

Sure Keesje... so what was that "Working Together" group formed for the 777? :-/

You're describing their former sales team, not their RD department at any time

Quoting Keesje (Reply 28):
Ask airlines; "inflexible", "they tell us what we want", "internal focus" etc. qualifications are around the corner.

Man... its a wonder that the 777 and 737NG are the market perferred aircraft at all. :-/

[Edited 2005-03-24 18:08:06]
 
Ken777
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:29 am

If there is heavy pressure from the airlines for deliveries what would keep Boeing from increasing their production rate? Supplier are critical, but they also look at demand and want to capture as much of the market as possible. Opening more production slots would improve market share, profitability and add pressure on Airbus.
 
gigneil
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:31 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 29):
Man... its a wonder that the 777 and 737NG are the market perferred aircraft at all. :-/

Its arguable that the 737NG isn't the "market preferred".

N
 
keesje
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:35 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 29):
so what was that "Working Together" group formed for the 777?

So e.g. why do we think was the overhead crew rest introduced 8 years after the types introduction?

Creating a group & listening to airlines is one thing, investing in what they want ("de-standarization") another..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
DeltaWings
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:51 am

Quoting QFA001 (Reply 23):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Well the 787-8 is significant smaller then the proposed 350-800. So it will have a unique selling point.

Not much of one. The B788 is about the same size compared to the A358

Really? I thought The A350-800 competitor was the 789, while the 772 will be in the same market as the A350-900. The B788 will replace the 763. We know that the 763 was the answer to the A300.

To the 789: Which airline has interest in it yet?


~DeltaWings
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DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Fri Mar 25, 2005 5:56 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 32):
So e.g. why do we think was the overhead crew rest introduced 8 years after the types introduction?

Why did Boeing even offer the 773A? The specific request of airlines like CX. To say Boeing has been blindly disregarding all opinons of their paying customers is ignorant beyond all comprehension.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 31):
Its arguable that the 737NG isn't the "market preferred".

True... we could argue that all day long  Smile

But the fact that 14 of the 20 largest LCCs are exclusive 737NG customers and that it reached the 1,000/1,500/2,000 sales points faster than any other narrowbody speaks volumes about it's economics.
 
keesje
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Fri Mar 25, 2005 6:16 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 34):
To say Boeing has been blindly disregarding all opinons of their paying customers is ignorant beyond all comprehension.

Nobody is saying that, however I know Boeing & as you told us:

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 27):
Allan Mullay's on the record comments that the 787 will be available with a fraction of the options of previous Boeings, with more standardized features and simplified reconfiguration.

so this seems to confirm not much is changing in this respect
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: Boeing 787-300 & 787-900; Available After 2010

Fri Mar 25, 2005 6:27 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 35):
so this seems to confirm not much is changing in this respect

You are misreading it...the 787 will include many more STANDARD features. It's like buying a car. Unlike previous models, the 787 will include more right off the bat instead of airlines having to pick and choose. This could be good or bad, but considering the 787 is selling faster than ANY OTHER AIRCRAFT IN HISTORY, I don't think the airlines mind.