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kc135topboom
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What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:21 pm

No, this is not an A vs. B thread.

The A-380 is going to enter flight testing soon. But, the airplane is still a long way from the break even point, in sales.

There are rumors of a 40 airplane order.

There are still rumors the airplane is hopelessly over weight.

There are airport issues.

But, if the A-380 never reaches the projected breakeven point in sales, what will be the economic loss to Airbus if say, it sales are still 100 airplanes short of break even?

What will happen if the airplane doesn't meet it's performance specs and airlines begine to cancel orders and options?

Do the EU governments absorb the loss?

I know the losses will be spread around to all of EADs partners in the A-380 project. But, won't this still be a huge loss (economically) for Europe, as a whole?

The UK and France lost hundreds of millions of pounds sterling (because of development costs) because of no Concord sales beyond AF and BA (both state owned airlines at the time) in the 1970s.
 
Carpethead
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:28 pm

If (I mean to emphasize IF) this happens similar along the Concorde project, there will be hell to pay.
This is something along the lines of a wet dream for a Boeing fan or anti-Airbus people.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:31 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Do the EU governments absorb the loss?

No, the respective taxpayers do. The US will feel this too, since the project contains many US made parts; hence a loss of jobs here as well.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
But, if the A-380 never reaches the projected breakeven point in sales, what will be the economic loss to Airbus if say, it sales are still 100 airplanes short of break even?

I think it will EVENTUALLY reach it's goal. The 747-100 had teething problems of it's own and nearly bankrupted Boeing. Now look where it is today.

Of course the EU would never allow Airbus to go bankrupt; too much French and German national pride at stake.  twocents 
One Nation Under God
 
norcal
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:37 pm

Airbus won't go out of business, the EU won't let them. They would write of the debt for the A380. It would be far cheaper to do this than to have all of the airbus employees become unemployed all of the sudden. We would give Boeing chapter 11 bankruptcy protection if Boeing were to be at financial risk.
I'm sure Airlines wouldn't be too happy if either Airbus or Boeing went out of business. The surviving company would have a monopoly over the market and that wouldn't be good. A lot of the breakthrough technology that we are getting with a/c is because A and B are competing with each other. Remove the competition and you remove the incentive to put money into R & D. You would see much more traditional and conservative airplanes in the future and that would be boring.

Finally, 99% of the discussions on a.net would no longer be necessary since they all become A vs B threads anyways. Can you imagine A.net without the A vs B wars!?!?!  Wow!

Long live Boeing and Airbus.
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:46 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Concord

Errr....that's Concorde with the 'e' on the end.

Thanks... Wink
And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
art
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 1:51 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
There are still rumors the airplane is hopelessly over weight.

A little ambiguous to me. Do you mean

(a) it is overweight and there is no hope of getting it down to the design weight

(b) it is severely overweight and there is no hope of this being rectified

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
What will happen if the airplane doesn't meet it's performance specs and airlines begine to cancel orders and options?

Do the EU governments absorb the loss?

I believe they funded a third of the development cost. If there were 0 deliveries, they would lose it all.
 
antares
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 2:18 pm

I'm saving posts like these so these sometimes idiotic threads get reviewed in the future.

But let's look at the major cause of a failure, which will be a severe downturn in world economic activity.

If that downturn obliterates demand to the extend that a machine (any machine) with a lower operating cost cannot reach break even point then something more than just the A380 is going to be in deep do-do.

As to weight, we ought to ask the question I've seen posed by a Boeing engineer in at least one recent article. What is the A380 actually built for? If its built to be stretched a lot of things about the current design make sense.

His answer was alng the lines that Airbus had occupied the heavy lift territory well in advance of demand, and this could be an issue for his company, and this was well before recent announcements of a review of the 747 program and whether or not to go ahead with an advanced version.

Can our imagination cope with a 1000 passenger jet. Well, who knows. If traffic grows dramatically we need to accommodate it, and sure smaller point to point jets have their pluses and minuses, but especially minuses if you look at how much business activity is generated in major hub cities like London, Tokyo and Los Angeles, and how little by comparison in Birmingham, Hiroshima and Palm Springs.

For a range of reasons Boeing has withdrawn from the very large jet end of the spectrum. Whether it was right or wrong to do so will be played out by the changes we see occurring all around us in the global economy.

Whomever replaces Stonecipher at Boeing sure has a lot to think about. A dead domestic market, rising fuel prices, and the negatives as well as positive of a weak USD, the major negative being the higher cost of imported inputs.

Remember a weak USD gives Airbus cheaper access to US made engines and components. Nothing is ever a simple as this forum tends to depict things.
 
lehpron
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:02 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
What will happen if the airplane doesn't meet it's performance specs

You may need to be specific regarding performance. From what I hear, it is about 12 tons over weight, but according to the stats found here on A.net, engines with higher thrusts have been choosen, I suppose to compensate and maintain field performance. The result will be a higher fuel burn (probably not by much), high noise rating (probably not by much) and a range drop (probably not by much). 12 out of 600 tons is 5% of the total mass, what does that translate to, 50 Nmi and 3 decibles and 400 feet of altitude loss? BTW, I was being simplistic.

Quote:
...and airlines begine to cancel orders and options?

This isn't Concorde no matter how you figure and it still follows the "do what works" theory that has been done in the industry for 40 years. People differ from what I believe about Concorde, to me that plane was more political than economic, the only purpose it had was national pride, it wasn't supposed to change the world. It was Europe's moonshot, it was never meant to be economically viable, end of story.

Quoting Antares (Reply 6):
I'm saving posts like these so these sometimes idiotic threads get reviewed in the future.

The thread starter is actually doing something right, they are asking questions and not making ignorant assumptions. If anything, that is exactly what you did by claiming the thread is idiotic. I do not know the answers to most of these and would like to.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:06 pm

If the A380 fails...Airbus will die.

Seriously, it's not going to fail, get over it, I don't really like it either but just accept it. It's just another big hunk of metal flying around, it's not going to come after you while you sleep or hunt you down at work. Just remember, the 747 is still the Queen of the Skies, the A380 is just her fat, ugly brother-in-law.  Wink
 
jacobin777
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:16 pm

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 9):
the A380 is just her fat, ugly brother-in-law. Wink

that rocked!  Big grin
"Up the Irons!"
 
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mariner
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 4:38 pm

Quoting StevenUhl777 (Reply 4):
Errr....that's Concorde with the 'e' on the end.

Sorry, Steven, it is only Concorde to the French. Or rather, it was.

Originally, the plane was called Concord on one side of the English Channel and Concorde on the other.

Reason - there is no word "Concorde" in English, it is "concord.". "Concorde" is a French word. But the Brits were not about to let the French have it all their own way.

However, over the years, the French have won and it has become Concorde.

But not to all of us.  Smile

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Udo
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 5:02 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
There are still rumors the airplane is hopelessly over weight.

Where? Can you tell me one reliable source for that? One respected newspaper article which is not based on pure speculation?
If one wise guy at a.net says anything negative about an aircraft, people turn it into an official rumour the next day...  covereyes 

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
The UK and France lost hundreds of millions of pounds sterling (because of development costs) because of no Concord sales beyond AF and BA (both state owned airlines at the time) in the 1970s.

No risk, no success.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 2):
Of course the EU would never allow Airbus to go bankrupt; too much French and German national pride at stake.

It's not mainly about pride, but about countless jobs throughout Europe. It's not just Airbus and EADS but also thousands of companies acting as suppliers.

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 9):
Just remember, the 747 is still the Queen of the Skies, the A380 is just her fat, ugly brother-in-law.

...and cheergirls have never prevented a loser team to return on the winner's side, no matter how loudly they shouted.  Wink Who really cares about nicknames and looks? Well, some a.net fanatics...  sarcastic 


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
LHB727230Adv
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 6:42 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
The A-380 is going to enter flight testing soon. But, the airplane is still a long way from the break even point, in sales.

A new airplane (especially the size of the A380) isn't necessarily expected to reach breakeven before it has even left the ground. Once it flies my guess would be it'll start picking up more orders.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
There are still rumors the airplane is hopelessly over weight.

From what I've heard the plane is actually lighter that target weight.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
What will happen if the airplane doesn't meet it's performance specs and airlines begin to cancel orders and options?

Unlikely, most new planes achieve very close performance to original design specs. The computer projected specs are very accurate these days. Sometimes, the plane exceeds design specs like the 777-300ER.

Hope this helps.  bigthumbsup 
 
wukka
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:16 pm

What if the 380 succeeds?

Meh. If this craft hits 64% EGR on takeoff and explodes (throwing the test crew to safety), then some people on this site win. On the flipside, if this craft exceeds performance expectations, some people on this site win.

Regardless, we all get to see fantastic engineering that's pushing anything that we've seen before. Way to go Airbus! You deserve all the kudos that you receive.

All this coming from a B fan.

The "I told ya' so!"s are going to come from either side, regardless of what happens on the day of truth. Could someone explain the point? Please?
We can agree to disagree.
 
Planesmart
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 7:20 pm

It better not fail.

My employer will experience a significant loss of interest and fee income if it does, and consequently i too would experience a serious loss of income.

a.net members know more specifics about a weight problem than customers, so i presume most of you work for Airbus in the A38 development or testing teams. To be on the safe side, I have enrolled the A38 with Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig.

It won't fail.
 
wukka
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 8:03 pm

Well done, Plane Smart.

These arguments seem to be building strawmen, and I wonder why? No matter what happens, someone's going to be on the sidelines with an, "I told you so!"

Oh, and the 380, if necessary, may be able to do something with Weight Watchers, but Jenny Craig seems to be the statistical way to go, LOL!  Wink
We can agree to disagree.
 
Andreas
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 8:26 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
No, this is not an A vs. B thread. [...] But, the airplane is still [...].

There are at least 200 threads here that started with these words and they turned out to be the same: Some Boeing lover (btw: What the hell does that mean anyway) begging for arguments just why Airbus could fail, even if it is just the remotest reason....kids: wake up or grow up!

This gets out of hand, and it gets boring, too:

1. The fact that Airbus caught up with Boeing and will in the long term reach a 50:50 deuce is due to the fact that customers just hate to have a monopolist on the other saide who has the power to dictate what aircraft they have to buy!

2. 2 competitors are good..for just about everybody except of course the 2 manufacturers, who would love to be monopolists. Right!

And it really bugs me big time to see all this whingeing coming from American so-called B-lovers (well mostly), who are usually the first ones to scream competition is good....ah yes, and in civil aviation this is different exactly...why?

3. I'm still waiting for a list of names of "so-called" Airbus lovers, who post blue-eyed nonsense such as "if it's a Boeing, I'm not going" or any such crap... so it's actually more a B vs. the rest of the world war that gets started by threads such as this one, not really A vs. B.

4. and most important: If you have to start a thread like this one, bring on facts!!!!! All other threads should be classified as what they are....and getdeleted as soon as they are posted!!!
I know it's only VfB but I like it!
 
Alessandro
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 8:45 pm

So who finance the A380? Answer Airbus and it´s subcontractors, if A380 is a failure like the Tristar, then many people will lose their jobs in North America,
Europe and elsewhere, also stock holders are in risk of losing their investment...
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
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solnabo
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:09 pm

Wave youre stars n stripes if 380 fails, whatever makes you happy....

I was thinking the same about 787, who´s gonna wave the €U flag?

Jeeeeehhhh....

Micke//SE  Yeah sure
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
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solnabo
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:33 pm

BTW, all inhere behaves like 13-14 y/o, so I guess I´m no exeption.

Micke//SE  Yeah sure
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
gkirk
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Mon Mar 28, 2005 11:47 pm

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 18):
I was thinking the same about 787, who´s gonna wave the €U flag?

The EU doesnt have a flag seein as it's not a country. It has a logo however  Wink

Oh, and it's Concorde, not Concord
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
b752fanatic
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 12:22 am

I dont think that the A380 will fail, but I really think that the first version of the A380 will not be as Airbus planned, it will happen the same thing as when Boeing released their 747, and Airbus their A340.

Probably the second version of the A380 will have a better chance, after they have discovered all the flaws and made the a/c more efficient.

My guess is not that the first A380 will fail in its tests (wing fell off, etc) but the performance and the calculations Airbus had planned will not come out 100% the way they expected.

And to my opinion thats when the orders will begin to cancel, lets see what happens.
"Truth is more of a stranger than fiction." Mark Twain
 
art
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 12:35 am

Quoting Gkirk (Reply 20):
The EU doesnt have a flag seein as it's not a country. It has a logo however

There is actually an EU flag - it's probably only seen in EU countries. It's dark blue with a circle of stars (one for each member). They have to keep adding more as the number of members increases, a little reminiscent of the evolution of the US flag.
 
ZRH
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 12:47 am

As somebody already mentioned: from where do you have this story with the "over weight"? I have never seen a serious source about this. Why do all people speak about break even. At this stage you can not judge it at all. We'll see perhaps in 10 years, if the 250 or 300 are or will be sold. How long did the 747 have for break even, I think at least 15 years or even more.
 
yvrtoyyz
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 12:51 am

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 17):
if A380 is a failure like the Tristar, then many people will lose their jobs in North America,

I hardly think that one could classify the Tristar as a failure. It was one of the most technologically advanced civil aircraft of its time and many continue to fly presently.

Relating to the topic, the thread-starter has hardly put any effort into thinking this topic through. For one, with the accuracy of computer modelling and engineering the way it currently is, there leaves very little room for negative surprises.

Sales are irrelevent at this point as the aircraft has yet to be flown; once airborne tests are completed and the aircraft is in service for a few years and yet no further sales are made, then one could speculate that the program won't break even; but until that is proven, I think that your "rumour" is pure speculation.

"Hopelessly overweight" gives the impression that the A380 cannot power itself off the ground. Is that so? Why is this point continuing to be debated? Which engine manufacturer or program engineer at Airbus did you get this information from? The only ones who know are those working directly on the project. The media is useless for getting accurate facts from, as we all know.

Airport compatability and rights are a non-issue to the success of this project. There are enough airports A380 compatable or in the process of becoming compatable that this will not hinder the success of the program in any way, shape or form.

There are many other points I could make in relation to the thread-starters post, but all the questions have self-explanatory answers.

-YVRtoYYZ
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 12:52 am

First, about the Concord, I am American. This is the way the word "Concord" is spelled here. As in the name of the town Concord, Massachusetts (remember the shot heard around the world?), or the city Concord, New Hampshire (the state capital). The name of the airplane is spelled the same here, as it is in the UK. It is in no way a comment about how it is spelled in France or anywhere else.

So, to me it is "Concord".

The "over weight problem" of the A-380. This was an announcment that Airbus made the day of the official rollout for the A-380. "The airplane is still 8-10 tonnes over weight, we are still working to reduce the weight problem".

BTW, I was using the direct quote, that is why I spelled "tonnes" as I did. Here in the US it is spelled "tons".

I never suggested a failure of the A-380 translated into a failure of Airbus or EADS. No matter what anyone thinks of the A-380, it is still just one program the company is working on, nothing more, nothing less, just like the AM-400 program is. A failure in this one program is just that.

BTW, I am not suggesting the A-380 is a failure. I want this program and even the A-350 program to succeed (although the A-350 is doubtful, as of today). I also want the B-787 and B-747-ADV to succeed (again the B-747-ADV program is doubtful, as of today).

I started this thread as nothing more than a "what if" question. It was ment to think about what would happen, if.....

My attempt to keep this from an Airbus vs. Boeing thread was honest. I didn't mention any Boeing product in my original post.

Ed
 
WunalaYann
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 1:11 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 10):
However, over the years, the French have won and it has become Concorde.

Yeah, we are used to fighting (and most of the time losing) meaningless battles.
The Concord/Concorde thing being a case in point.  Yeah sure And I wish I were being ironic.

Quoting Art (Reply 22):
They have to keep adding more as the number of members increases, a little reminiscent of the evolution of the US flag.

Which once again shows how close both sides of the Atlantic are. In spite of what many on each coast want us to think.

Quoting Udo (Reply 11):
t's not mainly about pride, but about countless jobs throughout Europe. It's not just Airbus and EADS but also thousands of companies acting as suppliers.

You could add that it's about thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout the WORLD. Many key components, starting with the engines, are built on other continents. Some of these components are even designed in North America, Japan, Australia, wherever.

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 7):
People differ from what I believe about Concorde, to me that plane was more political than economic, the only purpose it had was national pride, it wasn't supposed to change the world. It was Europe's moonshot, it was never meant to be economically viable, end of story.

British and French taxpayers know only too well how unsuccessful it was. Although from your point of view, since it was never meant to be viable, it was a success...  Wink

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 2):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
Do the EU governments absorb the loss?

No, the respective taxpayers do

The difference being?  Smile
 
incitatus
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 1:22 am

Right now the chances the A380 will fail in the marketplace are small. We used to have a single large aircraft available, the 747. It has survived for 35 years, which is strong evidence that the market can support one large aircraft in the long term, including downturns. Up to this point, Boeing has not committed to offering anything larger than a 777-300. So... The A380 is the successor of the 747 and it has the longhaul 300seat+ market for itself.

Boeing is even hammering another nail in the 747 coffin by making a longhaul 777 freighter, which will sap the chances a redesigned 747 freighter will be a success.
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exFATboy
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 1:48 am

On the spelling issue: the generally accepted spelling for the plane is "Concorde", even in the US. British Airways spelled it "Concorde", and I have never seen a major US publication spell it without the "e."

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 25):
BTW, I was using the direct quote, that is why I spelled "tonnes" as I did. Here in the US it is spelled "tons".

Actually, a "ton" and a "tonne" are two different things - this is not a spelling issue. A "ton" is 2,000 pounds. A "tonne" is 1,000 kilos, or 2,200 pounds. So you were correct to spell it "tonne", even if you did it for the wrong reason - a 10% variance is nothing to sneeze at.)

Quoting YVRtoYYZ (Reply 24):
I hardly think that one could classify the Tristar as a failure. It was one of the most technologically advanced civil aircraft of its time and many continue to fly presently.

Yeah, but it was a financial failure. I love the L-1011 - it's my favourite widebody by far - but financially it has to be classified as a failure. There's no dishonour in that - look at how many planes over the years have been technological trendsetters yet failed financially (the Avro Jetliner, CV-880, and CV-990 spring to mind.)

I thought KC135TopBoom did a pretty good job of asking the "failure" questions - given Airbus' reputation for not meeting specs, the weight issue is legitimate, as is the airport question. I think it's just a little premature to speculate on all this, and there have been a lot of threads on the subject...it's probably just a little overplayed right now.

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 8):
Just remember, the 747 is still the Queen of the Skies, the A380 is just her fat, ugly brother-in-law.

BWAHAHAHA!!!
(Sorry, A380 fans, but that was pretty funny...)
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:08 am

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 8):
Just remember, the 747 is still the Queen of the Skies, the A380 is just her fat, ugly brother-in-law.

Umm... actually, they're both ugly. I think 747 is uglier than A380 by a wide margin. If you're going to call anything the Queen of the Skies, call it the mighty Triple Seven!!!  

But back on topic: A380 will not fail. The worst case scenario will be that it will BARELY break even. And I bet a lot of people here - especially Boeing bigots - will say around, hmm, 2010, that with around 300 frames on order it is a failure. The truth is, that based on the current market demand I could see up to about 400 frames sold during the total production period (make it 2004 until let's say 2024). I do not believe Airbus will ever launch a stretched version of it, unless there is a miraculous 200% spike in air travel demand, which I doubt will happen. Performance wise, let's not judge the thing before it gets off the ground. The true test will come once it is doing revenue flights with SQ and EK.

[Edited 2005-03-28 18:17:14]
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Rj111
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:10 am

I'm sure they said the A380 they rolled at the official launch was actually lighter than they had anticipated.
 
daedaeg
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:32 am

Andreas your nationalist arguments are tired and old. I suggest you attempt to answer the questions honestly or don't answer them at all.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
There are still rumors the airplane is hopelessly over weight.

Anyway, KC135 this is a bit of an overstatement. It is not uncommon for new airframes under development to be overweight by a small margin. I don't think we can surmise that the A380's weight delima as "hopeless" at this point.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
What will happen if the airplane doesn't meet it's performance specs and airlines begine to cancel orders and options?

That is a really huge IF. Obviously if the A380 were not to meet its performance specs this would be a tremendous setback for the program. There is no indication that there will be any performance setbacks, but if there were the engineers would have to review and refine the design. Depending on what system on the aircraft is deficient, this would be very costly to the program overall. This would force Airbus to raise the base price of the 380.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
I know the losses will be spread around to all of EADs partners in the A-380 project. But, won't this still be a huge loss (economically) for Europe, as a whole?

In my opinion yes and no. Certainly Airbus and its suppliers will be immediately impacted if there were setbacks in the program. However I believe Europe's economy is robust enough to handle such setbacks. I can't really forsee the A380 failing performance or sales wise. There may be some minor setbacks, doubtful that anything catastrophic will occur. Too much is at stake for Airbus and its suppliers.
Everyday you're alive is a good day.
 
iowa744fan
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:34 am

Why don't we put a post on here that states,

"In the long run, what if the A-380 becomes a success for Airbus?"

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
The A-380 is going to enter flight testing soon. But, the airplane is still a long way from the break even point, in sales.

It is a long way from break-even sales...but then again, this aircraft is also very young...it has yet to even fly! Personally, I think that in the short run, the plane will not do well. I think this because of the amount of fragmentation that is occuring in many markets and the fact that the increase in seats for major airlines operating the 380 seems to be for upper class seats, and there does not seem to be much push for sheer numbers of passengers.

However, in the longer run, I think that the sales of the A380 will pick up. Yes, there is market fragmentation, but given the projected growth on most markets, I think that these fragmented routes will soon develop the additional demand that will require them to be upgraded to larger aircraft. I believe that an aircraft the size of the A380 is a good idea and will definitely be needed, just that it is a little bit early. In the end, this could work out well for Airbus. They have some teething problems now (which is common for most aircraft) and they have a few years to sort out and solve any problems before the demand will really pick up (at least what I believe), and the A380 will be selling well. It is for this reason that I think Boeing should go ahead with the 747ADV, on the condition that they develop the new wing. I believe that they have a few years to develop it before demand really picks up, so go for it!

Basically, I think that the 380 will be just fine and the "slow" (if you would call 140 orders by first flight slow) sales will begin to pick up as the whole industry continues to grow. In the long run, the 380 will be just fine. *my opinion*
 
UAMAYBACH1239
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:37 am

Antares From Australia, joined Jun 2004, 4

I'm saving posts like these so these sometimes idiotic threads get reviewed in the future. 63 posts, RR: 2

Someone asks a question , you make an insulting remark. You have valid points, but with immature remarks you take the risk of possibly turning away future members. Remember you don't have to respond to so called idotic threads.  tapedshut   thumbsdown 
a/c flown 737-222/322/522 757/747-1-2-4, 767-2-3, 777-2-3, A319-20, DC10-10-30, L1011-3-5, 727-222adv, MD85-90 flyourfri
 
GDB
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 2:37 am

As someone who was actually involved, and had to go through a lot of the airline and manufacturer/vendor documents, manuals etc at BA when it finished, take it from me, it's CONCORDE.
OK, end of story.
Who cares how the US spells it, our aircraft, our spelling, (our language even, on both sides of the Channel).
From December 1967, the prototype roll out, it was spelt with an 'E' on the end, by both countries.

As for A380, how many people thought the 747 was too big, too risky, to hard a hit on airport infrastructure?
No net then, but I'm sure some 'experts' published articles/books etc, in the late 60's saying it was all a bad mistake.

If the A380 has the teething troubles the 747 had on service entry, then logically this should not stop A380 from going on to do well in the years to come, the 747 did after all.

A380 won't likely reach the 747 sales figure over the same timescale, the market has changed, but I still think Boeing have made a serious error of judgement in not countering the A380, not exactly size for size or pax capacity for pax capacity, but had they modernized (including new wing and engines) and in some versions, lengthened, the 747, to be in service before the A380 had even flown, the A380 would look a decidely less secure project, it may not even have been approved for a go ahead in 2000.
 
daedaeg
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:12 am

Quoting Iowa744fan (Reply 32):
Why don't we put a post on here that states,

"In the long run, what if the A-380 becomes a success for Airbus?"

That's a good question. However I believe that posters are much like the media in that they like to discuss the worst possibilities than the best. Failure is a more interesting and unpredictable phenomenon. A discussion on success is seen as boring. I don't think people people should read too much into this.
Everyday you're alive is a good day.
 
columbia107
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:13 am

Actually Art as a European you should know that the EU flag will not increase its number of stars as the EU grows.
It is and will in future remain with 13 stars.
Sorry, I have just realised you are a Brit and the UK is not so hot on EU issues or facts.
In God we trust
 
Pihero
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:20 am

Two points of history:
Gkirk :
The European flag is no more a logo than the ethiopian flag.
Contrarily to what a few have said, it is now frozen with a ring of twelve stars, as the EU said :
"The number of stars has nothing to do with the number of Member States. There are twelve stars because the number twelve is traditionally the symbol of perfection, completeness and unity. The flag therefore remains unchanged regardless of EU enlargements."

KC135topboom, Mariner,
The name ConcordE was agreed upon by the french and the British in 1963,six years before first flight.As the then British prime minister said,"E stood for , among other things "Europe".So the name of the irreplaceable queen of the skies is Concorde and please respect it.

ExFatboy (reply 28) :
given Airbus' reputation for not meeting specs, the weight issue is legitimate, as is the airport question.
Another red herring on this site.The only time airbus was short on specs was with the A-340, and that was due to the fact that the promised engines were just that -a promise-.A certain consortium promised the moon with some revolutionary ducted fan...and couldn't deliver,forcing Airbus to accept a more powerful -but limited- version of the CFM-56 and a scaling-down of the aircraft and its performance. Really, are you all either so young or so short of memory ?

As to the A-380 so called weight problem, it looks more like a conservative solution to the ONLY problem I know regarding this airplane :it was said some time ago that, according to computations, the airplane resonnance frequency was uncomfortably too close to the .7-1 hz range...I suspect they beefed some structures up to obtain a higher res.frequency. As usual, the test flights will provide enough data to identify the problem and the solutions to address it.

Regards
Contrail designer
 
Leskova
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:25 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 37):
the airplane resonnance frequency was uncomfortably too close to the .7-1 hz range

Ok - now that caught my attention: since I have absolutely no idea about it, could you perhaps give a short explanation of why that frequency is problematic? I know that a lot of problems can arise from certain resonance frequencies - but what's the significance of this one?

Thanks in advance!!!

Regards,
Frank
Smile - it confuses people!
 
art
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 3:42 am

About the spelling of the Anglo-French (Franco-Anglais, the French say, but NEVER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES Anglo-Francais) SST:

"Concord" is an English word; "Concorde" is a French word. They are synonymous with "agreement". There was an two nation agreement to build the bird, so the name was chosen aptly. Both partners used their own spelling to refer to the aircraft until

Quoting GDB (Reply 34):
From December 1967, the prototype roll out, it was spelt with an 'E' on the end, by both countries.

The English Minister attending the ceremony diplomatically announced that the Brits, too, would henceforth spell its name with an "e", the justification for this being (perhaps not verbatim):

"E for Europe, E for England, E for Excellence"
 
ContnlEliteCMH
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:06 am

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 7):
12 out of 600 tons is 5% of the total mass

Ummm, 12 out of 600 is 1/50, or 2% of the total mass...
Christianity. Islam. Hinduism. Anthropogenic Global Warming. All are matters of faith!
 
NWADC9
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:20 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
The UK and France lost hundreds of millions of pounds sterling (because of development costs) because of no Concord sales

They make grapes?
Flying an aeroplane with only a single propeller to keep you in the air. Can you imagine that? -Capt. Picard
 
art
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:22 am

Pihero and Columbia107 - you're right about the EU flag. I was wrong. Just looked at one. It's got 12 stars. Did it start with 6 originally to represent the founding states, then jump to 9 when UK, Ireland and Denmark joined, then 12 when 3 more joined etc but stopped at that number?
 
Morvious
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:24 am

Just look at how many times the subject of this topic changed Big grin

First the Concorde spelling, then the European flag, then the stars of the European flag and what it meant.. Nice info BTW!!

Can someone tell when airbus will finish the ground tests.? And what the biggest concerns are at the moment?

Thanks
have a good day, Stefan van Hierden
 
BMIFlyer
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:43 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
What If The A-380 Fails?

Airbus will look very stupid  Yeah sure



Lee
Sometimes You Can't Make It On Your Own
 
Pihero
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:51 am

Leskova (reply 38) :
"could you perhaps give a short explanation of why that frequency is problematic?"

Sorry,I'd thought you knew :That resonance frequency range affects the human vaso-vagal system, inducing queasiness or a downright sea-sickness type of discomfort.We don't want every person on board using pukebags,do we?
Every object has its own frequency to which it will react.The simplest way to increase that frequency is to "harden" it by making it more "solid-like".Problem is most modern airplanes allow for some measure of elasticity (Most Airbus designs take aeroelasticity into account, meaning that the aircraft would oscillate along an axis without losing its efficiency in terms of aerodynamics for instance).
The electronic stability augmentation system will take care of most oscillations but should it fail,the designers have to make sure the aircraft will not enter a phenomenon of self induced, possibly catastrophic, resonance .

Art (reply 42),
Yes you're right, it won't change any more (but who could say never ?).Actually,my quote comes from the euro website.

As to the Franco- thing.As a matter of fact we say "franco-britannique" because we know our geography...LOL !

And thanks for the precisions,you are right on the actual history.

Regards
Contrail designer
 
Ken777
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:52 am

Since I fly on both A & B planes I have a strong desire that they are excellent aircraft - especially when I am on one. Since my first flight on a jet was a 707 and my first time in a jump seat was a night landing at the old HKG airport on a 747 the Boeings have a special place in my hear, but I'm old enough to know the factors that make for an enjoyable are the comfort of a seat, the quality of the food and the standard of service. That has no bearing on the brand of plane I'm on.

As for the 380, A has a significant advantage over the original 747 engineers because of the advanced computer systems (and computer power) available to them. There will be some kinks to iron out, but there should be far fewer than the 747-100, where slide rules were the order of the day.

Airbus also has significant disadvantages that the 747-100 didn't face. Fuel costs are at the head of this list, but you need to throw in terrorists and the international impact of economic downturns.

I personally think that the 380 will be OK. They will have SQ on their @ss for any kink and will devote significant engineering resources to clear them up as fast as possible - even if it means pulling engineers from the 350 program. I believe that there will be a major engineering effort during the first 2 years of commercial operations to bring the 380 up to a high standard. The costs of not doing so are too high for A to turn their backs on airline complaints.

The key for success in business today is to exceed customer expectations and that is now job one at Airbus. If they focus on this key I believe they will be OK.

If (and I stress IF) the airline industry is hit with major problems, like even higher fuel prices or multiple terrorist attacks, then the 380 is at risk, just as the purchasing airlines are at risks. Both A & B need to position themselves to withstand these disasters and, of the two, I think A is more at risk with the 380 than B is with the 787.

Since I want to keep flying and experiencing new planes I wish both of them well.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 4:55 am

I just want to see her fly! Hope she is a success for Airbus and the carriers that ordered her. In today's world of technology there are too many computer simulated tests they do and I seriously doubt they would put all the time/money/man-power into something that showed to be a success on the simulated tests and build it and have it be a failure! KEEP DREAMING!
So the first flight has not happened, Im sure Airbus wants it to be as perfect as possible so they are fixing the issues before it flies.

New plane! New issues! New ideas and corrections, it will fly and be a success.

Be strong (doubting Thomas) and don't cry!  cry   cry 
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
Leskova
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 5:01 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 45):
Sorry,I'd thought you knew :That resonance frequency range affects the human vaso-vagal system, inducing queasiness or a downright sea-sickness type of discomfort.We don't want every person on board using pukebags,do we?

Ah... ok - that makes sense: thanks for the explanation: indeed, I didn't know that this was the frequency that causes these problems... and, yes, I prefer not having everyone... err - change that to "anyone"... using pukebags on the plane.  Wink

Thanks again!

Regards,
Frank
Smile - it confuses people!
 
hoya
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RE: What If The A-380 Fails?

Tue Mar 29, 2005 5:10 am

Here's an interesting article I found regarding the A380 and the problems it faces. I deleted some irrelevant paragraphs.

-----

A380 Concerns Emerge As Aircraft Nears

Media: Aviation Week & Space Technology
Author: Robert Wall
Date: March 28, 2005
Country of Publication: USA

Airlines voice concern that A380 weight reductions are driving poor design choices

Performance Angst

Some airline officials are expressing mounting anxiety that the largely harmonious relationship they and Airbus have enjoyed on the A380 could sour, although there are no signs yet any buyers are wavering in their commitment to the project...

...But as Airbus prepares for first flight of the mega-transport, the manufacturer has effectively given up on flying the aircraft in the first quarter and has targeted an April maiden flight. With key ground tests still to be performed, first flight now isn't expected until at least mid-April.

Customers don't appear overly concerned about a few weeks delay in the milestone mission, but fears are cropping up regarding Airbus' weight reduction drive. Some think the intense focus on this area is leading to poor decisions that could be costly in the long-run.

And that is not the only issue. For instance, Singapore Airlines is waiting for a firm date for delivery of its first aircraft. Nominally, the first A380 should be delivered around June 2006, but an airline executive says Singapore has no confirmation from Airbus as to the actual schedule.

Even when it receives the first A380, it will take about two months to put it into service. Singapore wants to have two A380s on hand before starting revenue-generating operations on the Singapore-London route. Moreover, it will take several weeks to train an adequate number of pilots. Even though some crew will undergo training by Airbus early in 2006, the Singapore representative says additional personnel will have to be trained in Singapore once the aircraft arrives before operations can commence.

One problem Singapore faces as the lead customer is that software development for parts of the A380 is behind schedule, says another A380 customer. This means Singapore will not have the benefit of all the onboard diagnostics and other tools that have been promised to make the A380 a "paperless" aircraft. The Singapore Airlines official notes that the aircraft will have all the critical software for safe and effective operations.

A European customer shares the concern that Airbus is still "undertaking weight-saving measures in every area of the aircraft." There is "a big fear that due to 'product improvements' we will face more work in the daily business of operating the aircraft."

Among those planned improvements is the manufacture of window frames out of carbon-fiber reinforced plastic, rather than aluminum, he says. While the change may seem trivial, the customer thinks it could lead to excessive paint peeling and a continued maintenance headache.

UNCERTAINTY UNDERLIES MUCH of the anxiety. "We are still trying to chase up these last developments," the European airline representative says. He notes that Airbus has been receptive to customer comments, so some of the changes causing concern may yet be reexamined. However, he notes that as the time frame to tweak the A380 design narrows, airlines could get less of a hearing. He adds that Airbus has recently been specifically requested to keep the dialogue open.

Airbus is aware that an aircraft's "growing pains" when it first enters into service can tarnish its reputation--particularly in the case of the A380 because of the cash and image-shaping that airlines have invested. To help alleviate those concerns, the aircraft manufacturer has set up an enhanced support concept during which each airline will be given more attention than would usually be the case when it receives its aircraft. The operation is intended to have engineers on call 24 hr. a day to help customers trouble-shoot or to link them to Airbus' engineer support facility.

Moreover, Airbus Chief Operating Officer Gustav Humbert, while not addressing the A380 specifically, notes that customer satisfaction is a top priority. He says that while other divisions in the company have shrunk, the A380 group has expanded.
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