havaloc
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Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:02 am

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/050331/323/ffes2.html

Goldman sees oil price 'super spike' to $105 a barrel - UPDATE 3

NEW YORK (AFX) - Oil prices have entered the early stages of trading that could lead to a 'super spike' with the potential to move prices to $105 per barrel, enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.
The call, which would mean a possible doubling of oil prices from their current level, sent crude back above $55 per barrel for the first time in a week. The contract for May delivery was last quoted up 2.4 percent at $55.30, having earlier touched a high of $55.55.
'The strength in oil demand and economic growth, especially in the United States and China, following a year of $40-$50 per barrel WTI oil has surprised us... The reason for this adjustment in view is that persistent high prices are improving the financial position of key oil exporting countries and could serve to keep potential revolution at bay,' said analyst Arjun Murti.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron.com, said $105 oil is technically possible but not likely for at least 3 years and only if a major supply disruption, such as a halt to imports from Saudi Arabia, occurred.
'The timing of the report was conducive to the rally,' Flynn said. 'It's just another reason to be long. There's no doubt we're in a new bull market for crude oil.' Hear audio interview.
John Kilduff, energy risk analyst Fimat USA, agreed that the $105 price assumes a major supply disruption in Saudi Arabia or a Venezuelan embargo on shipments to the U.S.
'I don't know how they get to that number, short of a significant supply disruption event occurring,' he said.
'It's more reflective, to be fair, of the psychology of the energy market right now that there's going to be tremendous demand growth in the late third and the fourth quarter of this year. That's going to put the producers of crude oil in an extremely challenging position in terms of meeting that demand, and that's what is being priced in right now.'
Analyst Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International said the Goldman call was irresponsible and 'clearly an attempt to talk up the market on nothing more than hot air. Goldman has huge speculative energy positions and they have no interest in watching it go down right now.'
Goldman's previous 'spike' high for oil was $80 a barrel. The brokerage also raised spot forecasts for WTI spot oil - West Texas Intermediate spot oil, the benchmark crude that trades daily on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- to $50 for 2005 and $55 for 2006. Its previous forecasts were $41 in 2005 and $40 in 2006.
Murti also said earnings consensus for oil and gas companies ought to grow by 21 percent and 35 percent, respectively in 2005 and 2006, as those stocks stand to outperform the broader market.
The return could be 80 percent if prices hit a super spike, he said.
Murti recommends adding to positions in the oil sector 'at current prices, on a pullback, or even after rallies,' and raised 2005 and 2006 earnings estimates across the board.
His top picks in the sector continue to be Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM - news) , Amerada Hess (NYSE: AHC - news) , Bill Barrett Corp (NYSE: BBG - news) . , Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN - news) , EnCana Corp. , Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR - news) , Newfield Exploration (NYSE: NFX - news) , Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD - news) , Premcor , Questar Corp (NYSE: STR - news) . and Suncor Energy .
This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com
DC-9
 
nomorerjs
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:10 am

Goldman is part of the Wall Street group bidding up the price. Look at the US inventory data over the last two weeks, biggest supplies of crude in years. The market is way over priced. The market is a joke.
 
Indy
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:22 am

I think it was late 1999 or 2000 when oil was so cheap that you could get premium unleaded gas for around $0.89. I find it highly unlikely that the demand has changed so greately in just 5 years that the price would better than double when it had been increasingly at a reasonable rate for decades prior. Just makes you suspect market manipulation by traders to drive up the price to an unreasonable level. I find myself looking around for another Enron.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
atmx2000
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:38 am

I think it was late 1999 or 2000 when oil was so cheap that you could get premium unleaded gas for around $0.89.

Well the US has been buying cheap Chinese goods at an ever increasing amount per year for the last decade. Those dollars are being used to buy fuel.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:43 am

@ Indy: typical american point of view from someone who doesn't look over the Tellerand.

Demand HAS changed dramatically in the past 5 years, with India and especially China coming on-stream in terms of oil & gas demand. Cina has grown by about 8-10% in the past 5 years, and energy demand is usually growing at a higher pace than the GDP growth. Oil production is currently running at about 95-99% of capacity, and there is only a very marginal amount of capacity reserve at the moment. Same goes for the tanker capacity: find any tanker idle at the moment... good luck in doing so. Reflected by the extremly low number of tankers going out of the market for scrap.

Bottomline: when the demand increases, the prices increase accordingly. And as there is not enough supply at the moment, the prices are going up. 105$ might still be some way off - but it is not too unreasonable if demand is continuing to grow at the current level.
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Indy
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:55 am

Its not my fault your country rips you off with incredible taxes on gas  Smile

I was in Germany 2 weeks ago. You guys really should be complaining the way you get ripped off at the pump. $80 to fill up a car? What a joke. Yes the demand has gone up but not enough to justify a price increase of well over 200%.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
art
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:57 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 3):
Well the US has been buying cheap Chinese goods at an ever increasing amount per year for the last decade. Those dollars are being used to buy fuel.

And to buy US govt bonds. I hear that China is shaping up to become USA's biggest creditor. The fortunes of both countries are becoming intertwined.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:16 pm

I've no problem with fuel prices this high - remembers me that I still can drive a car which uses only 3.5 liters per 100km with decent comfort and speed, and that I don't really need an SUV for one person only, as it seems to be a necessity in other nations.

Okay, then lets add in the strong in crease of SUVs on the US roads, the increase in the world aircraft fleet, the amount of new ships added over the past 5 years, the economic growth in other parts of the world, the acutual production decrease in some major O&G production regions such as the North-Sea, the unnecessary Iraq war which still demands a risk premium as it has destabilized the most important O&G region... and so on. Enough reasons for a 200% price increase.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
TedTAce
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:25 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 4):
Reflected by the extremely low number of tankers going out of the market for scrap.

My Impression is that the only reason Tankers are 'going to scrap' these days is that they do not meet international standards for doublelining and other required safety features.

Gas is getting out of hand, India and China are not helping the matter at all, but it's not their fault we are giving them all our money with outsourcing, and Walmart consumerisim. (I am as guilty of the latter as everyone else in the US)

We need to get over our "big Texas" attitude, and downsize our vehicles, and cut our consumption/emissions. I don't want to sound like some tree hugging fruit loop, as I know I am, but I think the sooner we realize the well has to run dry eventually, the better.
This space intentionally left blank
 
bjg231
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:25 pm

Funny how no one has mentioned OPEC and that lovely Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez as responsible for any price increases.
If at first you don't succeed, then skydiving is not for you.
 
AEROFAN
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:41 pm

and when oil hits $105. only EK and Eithad will be left standing.
 
art
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 12:47 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 7):
Enough reasons for a 200% price increase.

Gasoline is price inelastic - eg increase the price by 10% and demand falls by less than 10%. It's very price inelastic - you could double its price in many countries and demand would probably not fall very much. Perhaps crude needs to triple or quadruple in price before consumers in some countries will address the problem of their profligate use of fuel.
 
Byrdluvs747
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:27 pm

"Funny how no one has mentioned OPEC and that lovely Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez as responsible for any price increases."

Don't blame the dealers for your addiction. It's their oil. They can sell it for whatever they want.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
 
aaflt1871
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:37 pm

Anybody want to give me a hand nailing the coffin lids shut on a few U.S airlines?
Where did everybody go?
 
zvezda
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 4:40 pm

The biggest unknown in the price of oil ten years from now is the extent to which China and India will build nuclear power plants. If they burn petroleum to generate much of their electricity, then oil will be very, very expensive.
 
cloudy
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 5:22 pm

The biggest unknown in the price of oil ten years from now is the extent to which China and India will build nuclear power plants. If they burn petroleum to generate much of their electricity, then oil will be very, very expensive.
----

The use of petroleum to generate electricity is not a major factor in demand for the stuff. When fossil fuels are used for electricity, it tends to be coal or natural gas(natural gas is a seperate product with a seperate market). Oil fired power plants are relatively rare and are used in niche applications. The main consumer of oil products is motor vehicles. In India, China, and other growing economies the first thing many people buy when they achieve a "middle class" income is a car. Also, it takes fuel to move all the goods that come from a growing economy.

There is no shortage of the stuff in the ground. The main problem is that the stuff has been relatively cheap for so long, and so there has not been as much incentive to drill it or refine it. That is changing now but it will take time for the new wells and refineries to come on line. Speaking of refineries, environmental regulations have made it all but impossible to build new ones in the US and many other places, leading to a shortage of refinery capacity. Another reason the US prices are so high is that every city and state seems to feel the need to require a different blend of gas. This drives costs up by putting more stress on refineries and by de-commoditizing the market. This patchwork of regulations also leads to gas being much more expensive in some places than in others.

The reason some products like gas seem to go up and down so much in price is because producing them requires high capital costs. This means that capacity is expensive and takes a long time to build. Prices can go up and down dramatically because it is more difficult for producers to adjust to demand than it is in other industries. It is not because the oil companies, station owners, or other boogiemen are out to rip you off. If you think the oil men are the bad guys you can get into the business yourself or buy stock in an oil company and join them. It isn't fun, because you can loose a lot of money this way. Oil companies can make a lot of money in these times, but they can also loose a ton of it if the guess wrong about the market. Gas station owners operate in such a competive market that few of them can make much money on gas. Most of their money is made on repairs, food, etc. Anyone who tells you they are gouging us is simply ignorant.

IN SHORT.... Don't blame the power companies, gas station owners, oil companies, etc. for gas prices. They do what the market(and thats you and me) tell them to do. The growth of China and India plays a role but it isn't really fair to blame them when their per capita consumption is still much lower than ours. If you hate high gas prices, throw an environmentalist and a Chevy Suburban owner into a pit and make them fight to the death. More rationally, you could buy a smaller or hybrid vehicle and you could push for more uniform, rational regulation of the oil industry. This is becuase the main preventable reasons demand is so high is because people like big vehicles and they like to believe the doom-and-gloom stories of environmentalists.
 
Skydrol
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 5:41 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:

>>>
I've no problem with fuel prices this high - remembers me that I still can drive a car which uses only 3.5 liters per 100km with decent comfort and speed, and that I don't really need an SUV for one person only, as it seems to be a necessity in other nations.
<<<

I find comments justifying high fuel prices from Europeans (such as Flying-Tiger) to be totally amusing. Obviously, they are so narrow-minded that they haven't grasped the reality of the situation. Whether a car consumes fuel at 8 MPG or 30 MPG is not relevant if you don't own or drive one. Yet you are still affected from ever-inflating prices for everything from bus fares to home heating to groceries. I have seen prices for some common groceries increase by 35% in just three years, home heating costs are soaring. Once you have a high-efficiency furnace and a well-insulated and sealed house there is little you can do to reduce fuel consumption further, without moving to a warmer country than Canada. If fuel prices were to double from their current ridiculous level, worries about airline insolvency will be the least of society's worries:
This isn't about the big, bad SUV-driving Texan, this is revolution time folks.



And FYI, to those who keep spouting how efficient European cars are, compared to "inefficient" North American cars, read and learn something:

(average 2005 vehicle fuel consumption from Consumer Reports, European, American, Japanese)

Audi A4, 1.8L, 24 MPG
Audi A6, 2.7L, 16 MPG
Audi A8, 6.0L, 17 MPG
BMW 3-, 3.0L, 22 MPG
BMW 5-, 3.0L, 20 MPG
BMW 7-, 4.4L, 18 MPG
BMW X3, 2.5L, 17 MPG
BMW X5, 3.0L, 17 MPG
Mercedes E, 3.2L, 20 MPG
Mercedes S, 4.3L, 18 MPG
Volkswagen Jetta, 1.8L, 23 MPG
Volkswagen Passat, 2.8L, 21 MPG
Volkswagen Toureg, 3.2L, 15 MPG
Volvo V70, 2.4L, 18 MPG
Volvo S80, 2.9L, 19 MPG
Volvo XC90, 2.9L, 15 MPG

Buick Park Avenue, 3.8L, 21 MPG
Cadillac CTS, 4.9L, 19 MPG
Cadillac DeVille, 4.6L, 19 MPG
Chevrolet Impala, 3.8L, 20 MPG
Chevrolet Malibu, 3.5L, 26 MPG
Dodge Caravan, 3.8L, 17 MPG
Dodge Magnum, 5.7L, 19 MPG
Ford Explorer, 4.6L, 17 MPG
Ford Focus, 2.0L, 24 MPG
Ford Taurus, 3.0L, 22 MPG
Mercury Sable, 3.0L, 22 MPG
Pontiac Bonneville, 3.8L, 20 MPG

Honda Accord, 3.0L, 23 MPG
Honda CRV, 2.4L, 21 MPG
Mazda MPV, 3.0L, 19 MPG
Mazda Tribute, 3.0L, 18 MPG
Mazda 6, 3.0L, 20 MPG
Toyota Camry, 3.0L, 20 MPG
Toyota 4Runner, 4.0L, 16 MPG
∙ ---{--« ∙ ----{--« ∙ --{-« ∙ ---{--« ∙ --{--« ∙ --{-« ∙ ----{--« ∙
 
anstar
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 5:50 pm

I think what people say is Europeans tend to drive smaller more fuel efficient cars ie 1.2-1.5l motors for getting around town, not 3.0l motors
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 5:58 pm

Quoting Skydrol (Reply 16):
Audi A4, 1.8L, 24 MPG
Audi A6, 2.7L, 16 MPG
Audi A8, 6.0L, 17 MPG
BMW 7-, 4.4L, 18 MPG
Mercedes S, 4.3L, 18 MPG
Volkswagen Toureg, 3.2L, 15 MPG

Whow, and you think these are average family cars?????
Audi A8, 6 (!) liter!!!!!
VW Touareg
Holly sh*t! I don't now who told you that, but as any European will tell you, We'd immediately turn our head when we see one of these pass through our neighbourhood, looking who might be inside!

Audi A3
Volkwagen Golf
Toyota Corolla
Nissan Almera
Daewoo Matisse
...
Those are the kind of cars we usually drive, yet I take it you don't even know how most of them look, because most of them aren't sold in the US.

[Edited 2005-04-01 10:01:00]
 
pipo777
Posts: 176
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 6:36 pm

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 12):
"Funny how no one has mentioned OPEC and that lovely Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez as responsible for any price increases."

Don't blame the dealers for your addiction. It's their oil. They can sell it for whatever they want.

Bjg231, most of us know Chavez is an a**hole...but like Byrdluvs said you can't blame him for trying to get the oil prices as high as he can, because Venezuela highly depends on oil, as it accounts for roughly one-third of GDP...Now if that money somehow got to the Venezuelan people instead of the bank accounts of the corrupt politicians...
 
ha763
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 6:44 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 18):
Audi A3
Volkwagen Golf
Toyota Corolla
Nissan Almera
Daewoo Matisse
...
Those are the kind of cars we usually drive, yet I take it you don't even know how most of them look, because most of them aren't sold in the US.

All execpt the Nissan Almera are sold in the US/Canada. The Daewoo Matisse is sold here as the Cheverolet Aveo and the VW Golf has been sold in the US for many years. BTW, I drive a 2001 Toyota Corolla and the Corolla is one of the top selling small cars in the US.
 
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sebolino
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Fri Apr 01, 2005 6:59 pm

Quoting Bjg231 (Reply 9):
Funny how no one has mentioned OPEC and that lovely Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez as responsible for any price increases.

It's funny how Americans are always trying to find responsibilty elsewhere. That's the fault of Saddam Hussein, Chavez or the Chinese, but not of the Americans and their incredibly huge overconsumption of gas (25% of the world's oil).
 
F9Animal
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:03 am

Quoting Sebolino (Reply 21):
It's funny how Americans are always trying to find responsibilty elsewhere. That's the fault of Saddam Hussein, Chavez or the Chinese, but not of the Americans and their incredibly huge overconsumption of gas (25% of the world's oil).

Hmmmmm. It's funny how the French are always making nasty comments about Americans. Truth is, the United States is much larger than France. In order for me to get to another job, sometimes I have to travel to another part of the country to do it. So I guess I overconsume to do my work? Nice comment bud.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
Thrust
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:12 am

If that super-spike is to happen, my family will be selling our minivan quite soon, I'll tell you that much. As for the airlines, UA probably will be near-death with that spike....somebody mentioned nuclear-powered aircraft earlier...that needs to be investigated and soon if allegations such as this turn out to be true. A super-spike in oil will obviously result in the deaths of several airlines....US, UA, CO, and DL could be killed....
Fly one thing; Fly it well
 
imatams
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:44 am

Quoting Havaloc (Thread starter):
Oil prices have entered the early stages of trading that could lead to a 'super spike' with the potential to move prices to $105 per barrel, enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.

Seems like a REALLY good moment to get into bicycle sales......
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:09 am

Quoting AAFLT1871 (Reply 13):
Anybody want to give me a hand nailing the coffin lids shut on a few U.S airlines?

I think the oil mongers are doing a nice job of it all by themselves. If this happens, SouthWest, Airtran and AA will be all that's left.

At least it will put an end to overcapacity......
One Nation Under God
 
A332
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:17 am

I would hope the government in this country would ease up on some of the taxes they place on fuel... it accounts for a large portion of the price at the pump, and when our provincial (Alberta) and federal governments are both rolling in large surplusses, you'd expect some sort of break.

Wishful thinking I'm afraid...
Bad spellers of the world... UNTIE!
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:23 am

Quoting Sebolino (Reply 21):
It's funny how Americans are always trying to find responsibilty elsewhere.

An interesting comment from someone from France, considering everything in the eyes of your countrymen is always the fault of the USA. You guys needs to start remembering it was us who saved your butts twice, WWi and WWII.
Without us, you would still be speaking German. Oh, yeah, and don't forget the billions of $ we spent rebuilding your shattered nation.  box 
One Nation Under God
 
cumulonimbus
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:32 am

I wonder If PropFans will be researched again? Maybe there will be large Turboprops flying domesticly one day? Just a thought.

Mike
 
zotan
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:35 am

I may be the only one here, but I cant wait to the day when oil finally runs out. THe air will be cleaner, there will be a HUGE revolution in the sciences when we search for a new energy search etc etc.
 
cumulonimbus
Posts: 508
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:37 am

Zotan, I would have to agree!!!

Mike
 
ILSApproach
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:03 am

Oil companies reporting profits in excess of 50% the last two years!!!

Also, the US gets it's largest supply of oil from Canada............followed by Mexico, Venezuala, etc, etc,.................Mid-East is way down the list (for now)

This subject really pisses me off........................the rich get richer at the expense of the working man.
 
goingboeing
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:11 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 5):
I was in Germany 2 weeks ago. You guys really should be complaining the way you get ripped off at the pump. $80 to fill up a car? What a joke. Yes the demand has gone up but not enough to justify a price increase of well over 200%.

Hmmm---I've seen some SUV's pull away from the pumps in Kansas City with an $80 fill up.
 
zotan
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 6:39 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 5):
I was in Germany 2 weeks ago. You guys really should be complaining the way you get ripped off at the pump. $80 to fill up a car?

At least they drive cars and not some gas guzzling SUV.
 
CWAFlyer
Posts: 536
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 6:46 am

I may be the only one here, but I cant wait to the day when oil finally runs out. THe air will be cleaner, there will be a HUGE revolution in the sciences when we search for a new energy search etc et

Quoting ZOTAN (Reply 29):

When oil runs out, what do you think airplanes are going to operate on?
Not to mention plastic and other things that are either products or by-products of petroleum.

[Edited 2005-04-01 22:48:25]
 
JDD1
Posts: 93
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RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 7:16 am

DAYflyer
An interesting comment from someone from France, considering everything in the eyes of your countrymen is always the fault of the USA. You guys needs to start remembering it was us who saved your butts twice, WWi and WWII.

As a Brit living in France I can tell you that the French have not forgotten and are grateful. You should not forget that without French help the US would probably still be a British colony! (Thank heavens they did help)

However history apart, your country's goodwill does not give it the right to expect subservience from its recipients for all time.

The European countries ARE friends of the US and have a right to be critical of it when they see it ignoring, for example, the effects of its pollution generation on the rest of the world, and refusal to sign the Koyota agreement.

The US has something like 5% of the world's population and produces some 25% of the pollution.

The world has a right to expect that the its most powerful nation be also the most responsible. The US has got some way to go
 
lh477
Posts: 567
Joined: Wed Jan 07, 2004 11:23 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 7:46 am

There are alternative fuel sources available: Hybrid, Electric, Ethanol, all however quiet expensive, the one thing oil has going for it is that it's relatively cheap. We may not like the fact that the cost of fuel is going up, however as the supply starts to dwindle the price is going to increase evermore.
1lt of gas is still cheaper then 1lt of bottled water.
We in the developed world have been pampered so far with inexpensive fuel, the time is coming for us to either pay more, find alternate inexpensive sources, or make drastic changes.
We don't have anyone else to blame but ourselves for the overusage
of a limited resource. I imagine Oil would have lasted us alot longer if we
didn't buy large engined cars, or get in the car when a 10minute walk would
have done the trick.
Come on you gunners......!!!!!
 
JUANR
Posts: 837
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2000 12:37 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 7:47 am

ZOTAN: as you've seen you are not the only one, now you at least can find 2 persons who agree with you on this issue.

Juan
SKBO
Bogotá: 2600 Metros Más Cerca De Las Estrellas; Vamos por los XVII Juegos Nacionales!!!!!!!!!
 
swatpamike
Posts: 469
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 12:14 pm

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 9:00 am

Quoting Aerofan (Reply 10):
and when oil hits $105. only EK and Eithad will be left standing.

You forgot WN.

Cheers

swatpamike
 
penguinflies
Posts: 932
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 12:00 pm

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 9:13 am

I agree with ZOTAN. I bet there is someone out there working on how to use water as an energy source...
 
JeffSFO
Posts: 806
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 2:55 pm

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 10:34 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 2):
I think it was late 1999 or 2000 when oil was so cheap that you could get premium unleaded gas for around $0.89. I find it highly unlikely that the demand has changed so greately in just 5 years that the price would better than double when it had been increasingly at a reasonable rate for decades prior. Just makes you suspect market manipulation by traders to drive up the price to an unreasonable level. I find myself looking around for another Enron.

Oil was cheap in the U.S. in the late '90s partly because Bill Clinton opened up the National Strategic Oil Reserve to flood the market. Also, Russia was producing more oil than OPEC wanted but refused to yield to pressure to reduce output.

Quoting ZOTAN (Reply 29):
I may be the only one here, but I cant wait to the day when oil finally runs out. THe air will be cleaner, there will be a HUGE revolution in the sciences when we search for a new energy search etc etc.

That comment is shortsighted to say the least. The world economy runs on oil, and if output stopped suddenly, we face economic collapse and tremendous social unrest. While I agree that developing alternative energy resources is vital, practically the whole energy infrastructure in the industrialized world is dependent on oil for now (although liquefied natural gas is coming online fast). That oil-based infrastructure is our Achilles heel because we can't just switch over to something new without great cost that would affect everybody.

Another reason why the price of oil is high is that we're running out of it. Here are two different but compelling points of view on the subject:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=1874931

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Hudson%20Institute%20September.pdf

Does anyone really know the remaining volume of reserves? It seems unlikely. Ultimately, the high price of oil is here to stay and it's an unnerving prospect and it's not good for anyone, especially the airlines.

-Jeff
 
zeekiel
Posts: 398
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2005 5:59 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 10:43 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 27):
An interesting comment from someone from France, considering everything in the eyes of your countrymen is always the fault of the USA. You guys needs to start remembering it was us who saved your butts twice, WWi and WWII.

I'm seriously sick of this stupid saying being floated around. Us down here in Australia and New Zealand are grateful that the U.S. came and defended the South Pacific during WWII. The U.S. (which I have absoutely nothing against) was also helped by the fact that Russia bore the brunt of fighting in the ETO. But thats another story.

Can't anyone take some constructive critisism?

Cheers

Zeekiel
Bring back the New Zealand Air Combat Force
 
9844
Posts: 194
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 12:36 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 11:28 am

There are a few of you who know what your talking about..I have added a few links

World Oil demand.In a chart format.

Worry because if the US {a major unleaded user} dosn't change to Natural Gas. Oil will continue to raise. Light sweet crude is the good stuff. Light sweet yields more light fuels then any other type of crude.The Alaska oil is a more sour {higher sulfer content} crude.If I am not mistaken US refiners can NOT refine this type of crude.SO we tank it and sell it in its raw form over seas.

The link below is a historical price chart.

http://www.yardeni.com/pub/crbfendw_c.pdf

Oil demand and supply historical charts

http://www.yardeni.com/pub/shoild_c.pdf


Airplanes....Powered by Rubber Bands..
 
zeekiel
Posts: 398
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2005 5:59 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 11:57 am

Quoting 9844 (Reply 42):

Worry because if the US {a major unleaded user} dosn't change to Natural Gas. Oil will continue to raise. Light sweet crude is the good stuff. Light sweet yields more light fuels then any other type of crude.The Alaska oil is a more sour {higher sulfer content} crude.If I am not mistaken US refiners can NOT refine this type of crude.SO we tank it and sell it in its raw form over seas.

There are some refineries in the U.S. that can handle sour crude. But due to its high sulphur content, not many can handle it. I'm not entirely sure but in western Texas there is sour crude oil as well. I think this website may have the answer to your question.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/text/2002205031_crudeoil12.html

Cheers

Zeekiel

[Edited 2005-04-02 03:58:15]
Bring back the New Zealand Air Combat Force
 
9844
Posts: 194
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 12:36 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 1:09 pm

Great copy. Yes that artical is on target. Those three refiners, net earnings and stock price are up strong.

Studying demand charts both US and Global tell me one thing...Year over year demand increases one million barrels a year...That might retract short term. Long term, as sure as we make babies. OIL consumption will rise.

Hell, Sand OIL deposits might be that next trend on wall street...

Look for consolidation in the OIL industry soon.
 
Falcon84
Posts: 13775
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 11:52 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 1:46 pm

Quoting Bjg231 (Reply 9):
Funny how no one has mentioned OPEC and that lovely Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez as responsible for any price increases.

Like blaming the drug dealer for supplying it to you, my friend. The fault doesn't lie with those who have the oil-the same people who we ripped off from the 1930's until the 1970's, getting gas for practically free over here-the fault lies with those who guzzle the gas in big SUV's, or those who can't or won't cut down on their consumption of oil, not those supplying it.

But again, it goes back the the mindset that the current U.S. Admninstration is setting: screw conservation of resources, or looking seriously at alternatives-just keep bringing in oil in whatever way is necessary. That policy-which, in fairness, has been American policy since the 60's, is at fault, not your whipping boys at OPEC.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 27):
Without us, you would still be speaking German

And, DAYflyer, without the help of France, we'd still be singing "God Save The Queen." Stick your jingoism on Non Aviation where it belongs. It's irrelevant here.

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 22):
Truth is, the United States is much larger than France.

Truth is we make up like 5% of the world's population, and still consume like 50% of it's oil. What part of that, smart guy, do you NOT understand? We are larger, but we're much more wasteful in this area.
Work Right, Fly Hard
 
milemaster
Posts: 995
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 10:19 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 2:26 pm

Many of you are just media brainwashed minions...

The world has plenty of oil.

According to the United States Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy and many, many other reputable sources, we have sufficient oil resources for at least the next several hundred years, maybe longer. The costs of extraction will likely be higher, but scarcity? No.

Without the emotional "the end of the world as we know it," paranoia from the traditional media, let's actually look at world oil reserves.

Currently, the world's recognized reserves of oil are higher than at any time in history. And, contrary to conventional media hysteria, the world's clearly identified reserves are growing every year. The USGS reports in the "World Petroleum Assessment 2000" that world reserves of conventional crude oil total 3,000 billion barrels. This estimate is an increase from a similar estimate in 1994 of 2,400 billion barrels, up from 1,500 billion barrels in 1990.

But this report considers only "liquid" or conventional oil oil that's accessible and readily available from underground reservoirs. This does not include highly viscous oils, oil-tar sand deposits or oil shale.

The major media focus with myopic intensity on conventional crude reserves, ignoring stunning reserves of oil located in tar sands and oil shale. At best, this is difficult to comprehend.

For example, little media attention was accorded the dramatic increases in Canadian oil reserves. A December 2003 report in Oil and Gas Journal notes that Canada's oil reserves now total more than 180 billion barrels of oil, with most found in economically recoverable oil-tar sand deposits. In contrast, Saudi Arabia's reserves are estimated at 264 billion barrels.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers sees the oil sand reservoir at a stunning 2,000 billion barrels of crude, of which 315 billion barrels is currently recoverable. This is oil economically viable at prices between $18 and $20 per barrel. Worldwide, recoverable reserves of oil found in oil sands are currently reported in excess of 1,000 billion barrels.

But by far the largest potential reservoir of future oil is held in oil shale.

The U.S. Department of Energy, in a March 2004 study, reports oil shale reserves in the United States alone of over 2,000 billion barrels. Worldwide, oil-shale reserves are estimated as high as 14,000 billion barrels.

To put this in perspective, U.S. oil-shale reserves alone would be sufficient to provide 100 percent of U.S. crude oil consumed at current usage for over 200 years.

Worldwide reserves of 14,000 billion barrels are sufficient to provide the world's crude oil requirements for at least several hundred years.

The truth is, the history of oil prognostication is littered with scaremongers proclaiming false declarations of approaching oil famine. In fact, doom merchants have used oil as a vehicle for "end of the world" scenarios since before World War I. Consider:

In 1914, the U.S. Bureau of Mines declared that the United States would run out of oil in 10 years.

In 1939, the Department of the Interior predicted that oil reserves would last only 13 more years.

In 1950, when the world's estimated reserves were thought to be 600 billion barrels, the Department of Interior again projected the end of the age of oil by 1963.

Move forward to the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which prompted the highly respected journal Foreign Affairs to publish an article on "The Oil Crisis: This Time the Wolf is Here."

In 1981, a respected textbook on economic geology predicted that the United States was entering a 125-year-long energy gap, expected to be at its worst in the year 2000 with dire consequences to our standard of living.

In 1995, a prominent geologist predicted that petroleum production would peak in 1996 and that after 1999 many of the developed world's societies would look like Third World countries.

In 1998, a Scientific American article titled "End of the Age of Oil" predicted that world oil production would peak in 2002 and that we would soon face the "end of the abundant and cheap oil on which all nations depend."

All of these predictions were wrong. In fact, from 1950 to the present, the world's recognized oil reserves have increased virtually every year.
 
Skydrol
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Oct 03, 2003 12:01 pm

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 2:45 pm

Milemaster,

Unfortunately the idiot "speculators" that drive up the price of crude are the ultimate brainwashed minions.

A good example of this was this winter. Every week the idiot speculators seemed to change their mind:

It's a cold winter - consumption will drain reserves
Winter is mild - surplus
It's cold again in the NorthEast, we are going to run out
The sun was shining last Tuesday, everything is fine again

... and so on. It was becoming comical


These "speculator" fruitcakes have the attention span of a housefly, that is the main problem with crude prices.
∙ ---{--« ∙ ----{--« ∙ --{-« ∙ ---{--« ∙ --{--« ∙ --{-« ∙ ----{--« ∙
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 2:57 pm

If oil prices do reach that price level, the effect on the US airline industry would be like the meteor that killed off all the dinosaurs rather than the necessary culling of the herd that is needed and overdue. The effect will depend on how rapidly prices rise.
 
9844
Posts: 194
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 12:36 am

RE: Oil Could Spike To $105 A Barrel

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:54 pm

MileMaster has posted good in site. Those doom and gloom on OIL were wrong. Those were the days. I don't pretend to say there isn't enough OIL.Just not enough refining ability.

My last post was shallow. Pun.


Its the sour stuff we need to gear up for.


I will ask at what price will the world economic machine, America be willing to pay?

As the world turns.America pretty much has the most disposable income.She sets the paces.

If Joe six pack has to spend more on unleaded. Well you know the story.

I would like to see more Natural Gas in our energy machine.


I am long NGS. Natural Gas Services. 500 shares. For those that follow the markets I think there will be some sort of consolidation in the sour crude refineries.