Ants
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Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Fri Apr 01, 2005 7:29 pm

Great news for kiwi aviation fans!  

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Emirates will fly its A380s from Sydney & Melbourne to Auckland from late 2006. The paper says Emirates will get its first A380s in October 2006 and that London, Sydney & Melbourne are to be the aircraft's premium routes. The plane will fly into Auckland even though the A345s & B777s currently being used have a load factor of around only 40%. Emirates say that it only has to fill 40% of seats because of the profitability of freight.

Auckland airport also released a press release today reporting that upgrades to the runway to have it ready for the A380 will be complete by next year.

SMH report (you need to register to view): http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/...1/1111862532788.html?oneclick=true

Yahoo news report: http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050331/15/3rm8i.html

AKL media release: http://travelvideo.tv/news/more.php?id=4663_0_1_0_M

[Edited 2005-04-01 11:35:18]
 
ushermittwoch
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland In Late 2006

Fri Apr 01, 2005 7:33 pm

Sounds great.
Hopefully that way the prices to NZ from Europe will drop by a lot!
Where have all the tri-jets gone...
 
Carpethead
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland In Late 2006

Fri Apr 01, 2005 7:36 pm

Can Airbus deliver minimum three maybe four A380s in a short period of time?
Is the first commercial A380 flight by EK going to be DXB-LHR?
 
777ER
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Fri Apr 01, 2005 8:01 pm

Well at least EKs A380 AKL services, can't be called 'cattle class' but 'space class'  Smile
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leelaw
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Fri Apr 01, 2005 8:11 pm

First sign that the much vaunted Kangaroo Route where, in theory, the capacity of the A380 can be profitably exploited may turn out to be a graveyard instead of a profit center.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
ZK-NBT
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Fri Apr 01, 2005 8:11 pm

Yup can't wait to see the beast in action.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 3):
Well at least EKs A380 AKL services, can't be called 'cattle class' but 'space class'

Yeah, lol! Though their flights lately have been quite full, we'll see how the loads hold up through the winter months.
 
danialanwar
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Fri Apr 01, 2005 9:06 pm

Quoting ZK-NBT (Reply 5):
we'll see how the loads hold up through the winter months.

As long as it is more profitable for EK to continue their Australia bound flights to New Zealand, they will do so. They may loose money on the route but that's still cheaper than have a couple of A380 standing still at SYD / MEL for more than 12 hours.
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ozglobal
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Fri Apr 01, 2005 9:46 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 4):
First sign that the much vaunted Kangaroo Route where, in theory, the capacity of the A380 can be profitably exploited may turn out to be a graveyard instead of a profit center.

If you're talking about the 40% load factor, you need to read more carefully. The Kangaroo route, which has massive traffic, is Europe-Oz. The 40% load is the onward sector, Oz to NZ for EK.

Or am I missing your point? Why does it seem you're always looking for a reason for A380 failure, Leelaw? I know, you don't buy the business case; but haven't you got access to the stats for the Kangaroo route in your line of work? Even the current seat number are massive: QF 28 744's weekly, BA 16 744's, not to mention SQ, MH, TG, EK, CX, etc, etc.
When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
 
leelaw
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:15 pm

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 7):
Or am I missing your point? Why does it seem you're always looking for a reason for A380 failure, Leelaw? I know, you don't buy the business case; but haven't you got access to the stats for the Kangaroo route in your line of work? Even the current seat number are massive: QF 28 744's weekly, BA 16 744's, not to mention SQ, MH, TG, EK, CX, etc, etc.

You forgot VS as well. Seven or Eight operators competing on these sectors, especially with VLA, will, IMO, lead to much lower yields. You can only suck so much juice out of an orange, and they're all eyeing the same orange.

In this particular situation, are QF and NZ going to allow EK to skim off any significant passenger and cargo traffic between Australia and New Zealand without a response?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
ZKOJH
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 2:18 am

nz and qf might have a few presents up there sleaves!!! just have to wait and see
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Nomad
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 2:30 am

That's great news for me and many of you no doubt who work in the airline industry and have ever traveled standby ! I went to AKL from SYD last December and was offloaded from EZ. So not always running light, but good prospects lye ahead it would seem, well at least until revenue picks up.  Silly

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Nomad
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 2:33 am

Sorry Guy's I mean EK not EZ
Nomad
 
Nomad
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:03 am

Well looking at the photograph taken on 31 March it looks to me like we wont be waiting too long. In fact I would say it was preparing for an event, possibly pre flight taxi trials, as these don't seem to have started yet !

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © French Frogs AirSlides



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lehpron
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:24 am

Quoting Ants (Thread starter):
The plane will fly into Auckland even though the A345s & B777s currently being used have a load factor of around only 40%. Emirates say that it only has to fill 40% of seats because of the profitability of freight.

So they are making money currently on freight, they do not need to have high pax loads. In a way this was expected, no A380 will fill immediately, I didn't know about freight though.

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 8):
You can only suck so much juice out of an orange, and they're all eyeing the same orange.

So oranges do not grow [on trees]? OzGlobal is right, you need to read more carefully. Big grin I have a word for you, it's called "expand"; or do you feel that everyone whom has ever flow will be the only ones to ever fly?
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
leelaw
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:04 am

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 14):
So they are making money currently on freight, they do not need to have high pax loads.

Aren't there a lot more efficient and profitable ways to transport freight than utilizing passenger aircraft with less than 50% passenger loads?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Rj111
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:35 am

Aren't there a lot more efficient and profitable ways to transport freight than utilizing passenger aircraft with less than 50% passenger loads

The A346 has more cargo space than the A380, why not use that when it arrives?
 
leelaw
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:43 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 16):
The A346 has more cargo space than the A380, why not use that when it arrives?

The premise is that the A380 would be carrying large passenger loads between DXB and SYD, beyond the capacity of the A346.
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jacobin777
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 20

Sat Apr 02, 2005 4:50 am

From looking at the worker just behind the inside engine (don't know what # it's called), one gets a sense as to how massive this thing is!  boggled 

Are the engines in size (not thrust) larger than those of all the Triple 7's??

Anyone up for a game of American Football??? Big grin
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Motorhussy
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 20

Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:38 am

That'd be the number three engine going from port to starboard.

Massive!

This is going to be great for the flying public to/from New Zealand.

MH
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jacobin777
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 6:01 am

Thanks for the info MotorH!
"Up the Irons!"
 
antares
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 8:20 am

In about 1972 Air Caledonie International leased a Qantas 747-200 for a weekly flight between Australia and Noumea.

The novelty of the jumbo age was such that the entire population of the major east coast cities seemed to take a holiday in a colonial French backwater that at the time had a population in the main city about about 40,000. Nouvelle Caledonie had a croissant crisis, people queued on the streets to get a table at a coffee shop, and the entire fleet of rentable vehicles vanished into the crumbling dirt roads of the hilly inland. It was totally insane but very funny, if you weren't a resident.

Then the novelty wore off and Air Caledonie International went back to selling around 60 seats a week on a Caravelle.

This is going to be similarly HUGE for EK, but for how long who knows.
 
leelaw
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 11:37 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
In about 1972 Air Caledonie International leased a Qantas 747-200 for a weekly flight between Australia and Noumea.

The novelty of the jumbo age was such that the entire population of the major east coast cities seemed to take a holiday in a colonial French backwater that at the time had a population in the main city about about 40,000.



Quoting Antares (Reply 20):
This is going to be similarly HUGE for EK, but for how long who knows.

A once weekly 742 service to New Caledonia seems significantly different than a higher frequency (daily?) A380 service between SYD and AKL. Seems like this only serves to disrupt a market which already suffers from overcapacity?
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aerorobnz
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 11:44 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21):
Seems like this only serves to disrupt a market which already suffers from overcapacity?

It'll just mean that a few of the lessor airlines at that time will probably cease flights. I expect by then for TG to have stopped operating the route, that will take out a 4x weekly 744 service (after they start BKK direct - daily currently)
Flown to 120 Airports in 44 Countries on 73 Operators. Visited 55 Countries and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
RichardJF
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Air New Zealand Livery

Sat Apr 02, 2005 12:58 pm

[quote=Leelaw,reply=4]First sign that the much vaunted Kangaroo Route where, in theory, the capacity of the A380 can be profitably exploited may turn out to be a graveyard instead of a profit center.[/quote

The problem for QF is that flying 4 times a day to LHR means you have a lot banking on that route. What stops EK and therefore SQ aggessively discounting their premium product to gain market share.

However Good luck to QF on the Kangaroo route
I'm looking forward to NZ flying 772ER
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antares
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 1:14 pm

Leelaw,

Your points are pretty sound to me. I was just reminding the youngsters that something spectacularly new has considerable drawing power until the novelty wears off.

I might add that until only a few years ago Air Calin issued handwritten boarding passes that were inscribed the night before a flight. It was, and perhaps still is, a very quaint old fashioned sort of airline, which i still remember for serving the biggest meals I've ever seen in economy, my last flight being in 95, I think on a 737-300.

You may not be aware however of the upside to New Zealand. With the China market kicking in and lots of growth still left in the Japan and Korea markets, and India just starting to stir, a trebling of demand across the Tasman within the medium term is not unlikely.

Assuming the airports invest in the right facilities for large jets (and I mean 777-300 and up, which too many haven't as yet, including in the US) and given the absurd slot situation at Sydney, A380s eight times a day will turn out to be a big yawn before we (well, maybe not me) know it.

I'm always surprised how this forum, in general tends to underestimate the future.

Antares
 
KDTWflyer
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 2:21 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 17):
Are the engines in size (not thrust) larger than those of all the Triple 7's??

The GE-90 has a max diameter of 135 inches and a length of 287 inches while the GP-7000 has a max diameter of 124 inches and a length of 187 inches. So the GE-90 platform for the B777 is the larger of the two.

http://www.geae.com/engines/commercial/index.html
NW B744 B742 B753 B752 A333 A332 A320 A319 DC10 DC9 ARJ CRJ S340
 
zvezda
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:15 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 24):
With the China market kicking in and lots of growth still left in the Japan and Korea markets, and India just starting to stir, a trebling of demand across the Tasman within the medium term is not unlikely.

Does EK have fifth freedom rights across the Tasman? If they don't, the Chinese market would not seem relevant. DXB is far off the path from the populated parts of China to SYD or AKL. DXB is well positioned for connecting pax among Europe, Asia, and Africa, plus between Europe or North Africa and OZ/NZ. DXB is not well positioned to connect pax between OZ/NA and Asia or Southern Africa.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 3:31 pm

Thanks KDTWFlyer......your spot on.....thanks for the info...I didn't have the info on the A380's engine specs....I wonder if they will sound (or feel) as sweet as the T-777s!!
"Up the Irons!"
 
antares
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:34 pm

Zvezda,

They can fly anybody on any of their services that touch down in Australia.

There is growing use of multi-destinational packaging between Australia and New Zealand for inclusive tours, and some hope that this will eventually include Fiji. (Air Pacific certainly hopes so.)

Most of the China nationals who arrive in Australia on short term visas are students. Usually from fairly wealthy backgrounds, and often, like the maturing Japanese market confident in their language skills and ability to travel independently or in small parties.

What on earth made you think I was talking about China tourism to Australia over Dubai? This post is about Sydney-Auckland services.

Study an atlas or globe for a few moments perhaps before telling us what is workable or not workable in this market.

The Tasman has been a common aviation market for quite some time and analysed at considerable extent for its upsides and downsides for all players, notably during the ACCC and NCC hearings.
 
zvezda
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:55 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 28):
What on earth made you think I was talking about China tourism to Australia over Dubai?

The discussion of EK's 40% loads over the Tasman. That's why I asked whether or not EK has fifth freedom rights.
 
777ER
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:56 pm

With the A380 on the Tasman route, well NZ must be right about EK capicity dumping.
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antares
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 6:25 pm

777ER,

You're right. But everyone is shovelling it on, so guess who'se coming with the biggest shovel.

Antares
 
zvezda
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 6:26 pm

BiggestShovel just doesn't have quite the ring to it that WhaleJet does. Big grin
 
777ER
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 6:35 pm

The question is, will the passengers thrill the riding a whale wear off, or will the thrill of operating the biggest passenger plane wear off and the airlines will have to either reduce the A380 fleet or retire the whole fleet, like what happened with the B747?
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antares
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 20

Sat Apr 02, 2005 7:55 pm

When you look at the trans Tasman it is a terrible drain on NZ and QF, although at times I wonder why they keep playing 'I can bleed longer than you can' and don't reduce capacity more in line with demand.

The perception is that QF is bleeding more than NZ, and in my view NZ has superior product offering now, even before the 777 flies some of those frequencies.

EK is quite possibly making better money than either, since it appears to have grown its share of the large container freight market very strongly. See www.dotars.gov.au and drill down for aviation statistics.

Its always risky to predict market conditions. But let's assume fuel costs more than today but NZ tourism continues to grow. Both reasonable assumptions because New Zealand is getting displaced demand from those comparatively well off visitors who worry about the risks of a high profile attack on holiday destinations elsewhere.

EK would gain the 'novelty' attraction, and knows how to discount if it has to, and will have a lower ASK. It won't even notice an effect on its balance sheet if the shovel/whale/whatever flies both ways empty, so there will be a fair bit of agony for the other carriers on the route until or unless growth feeds the beast.

I think we can also assume that the other EK flights from Brisbane and Melbourne will remain daily, with 777-300s with excellent freight capacity.

Will EK create a base in Auckland, as Qantas told the ACCC it feared, and maybe do New York non-stop using A345s? Will Wellington decide selling down its stake in NZ to EK is a good idea should EK put such a proposition on the table? These are questions with no answers today, but questions which will need answering in 06-07.
 
777ER
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 8:13 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 34):
Will EK create a base in Auckland,

Apparantly EK have purchased a large amount of land at AKL for a MX base

Quoting Antares (Reply 34):
Will Wellington decide selling down its stake in NZ to EK

I don't think WLG owns any states in NZ, or in any airline
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antares
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Sat Apr 02, 2005 10:37 pm

777ER,

By Wellington I meant the government, which owns 82% of Air New Zealand following the immensely successful Ansett investment.

Antares
 
RichardJF
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RE: Emirates A380s To Fly To Auckland From Late 2006

Mon Apr 04, 2005 9:37 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 34):
Will EK create a base in Auckland, as Qantas told the ACCC it feared, and maybe do New York non-stop using A345s? Will Wellington decide selling down its stake in NZ to EK is a good idea should EK put such a proposition on the table? These are questions with no answers today, but questions which will need answering in 06-07.

Flights by EK eastward from AKL doesn't stuff NZ by any stretch it just opens up the market more.
Transfering at Auckland will just become much more prevalent in the Australia to US routes. The wealthy premium customer departing from the US/Can will want to get on the plane going downunder not after a 5 hour transcontinental flight but at most after a short connecting flight. The majority of people in North America live east of the Mississippi.
I think the problem for QF is that EK is not only a threat in itself but that airlines like NZ and SQ have become much sharper and more focused than before.

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