B707Stu
Topic Author
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Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:03 am

As the 707 had a huge impact on the world, eg opening up new routes, shrinking the world, opening up more cargo, I'm curious to hear what y'all think the impact of the 787 capacities will have, especially on the world's hubs, eg London, Paris, Tokyo, JFK, FRA, MXP, etc...

For starters I can see many SOuth Asian (Indian bound) passengers taking non-stops from the US to India and by-passing European stops, decreasing traffic and reducing revenues. Also, what does it mean to Tokyo to have so many point-to-point North American-Asian flights that will obviously emerge. What will all this mean to commerce? freight? communication? politics?

Let the dialogue begin!
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:24 am

Quoting B707Stu (Thread starter):
What will all this mean to commerce? freight? communication? politics?

It will probably encourage more open-skies agreements, or at least further liberalize markets that will remain restricted.

Quoting B707Stu (Thread starter):
Also, what does it mean to Tokyo to have so many point-to-point North American-Asian flights that will obviously emerge

We aren't going to see LIT-NRT, but what we will probably see is cities like DFW and DEN (which are large cities with suprisingly weak international diversity) finally see some strong international offerings. Pleanty of examples in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere.

Quoting B707Stu (Thread starter):
I'm curious to hear what y'all think the impact of the 787 capacities will have, especially on the world's hubs, eg London, Paris, Tokyo, JFK, FRA, MXP, etc...

I think it will be to the Pacific/Asian market what the 767 was to the Atlantic market.
 
B707Stu
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RE: Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:27 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
We aren't going to see LIT-NRT, but what we will probably see is cities like DFW and DEN (which are large cities with suprisingly weak international diversity) finally see some strong international offerings. Pleanty of examples in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere.

Interesting you saw it this way, I was thinking that NRT would lose a lot of traffic, not gain. I was thinking we'd see DEN-BEJ or DFW-SIN type services. Come to think of it that means LAX and SEA, as hubs would experience reduced traffic too.

Do you think it'll have impact on airfares?
 
atmx2000
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RE: Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 7:49 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
It will probably encourage more open-skies agreements, or at least further liberalize markets that will remain restricted.

It may lead to more open skies agreements, but it might also encourage countries to restrict 5th and 6th freedom rights for foreign carriers, since nonstop routes for their flag airlines may become viable solely on the basis of O&D traffic. Their national airlines will not need as much access to convenient international hubs and their passenger traffic to fill flights to more distant locations.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
DarthRandall
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RE: Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 8:10 am

Quoting B707Stu (Reply 2):
Interesting you saw it this way, I was thinking that NRT would lose a lot of traffic, not gain. I was thinking we'd see DEN-BEJ or DFW-SIN type services. Come to think of it that means LAX and SEA, as hubs would experience reduced traffic too.

NRT probably would lose traffic as direct flights to other major cities on the Pacific Rim become available. I don't imagine that it will affect the hubs in the states as much in terms of overall traffic, because there probably will not be enough demand in the interior cities to justify flying 787s across the Pacific. LAX may see a drop-off as flights from PHX and DFW are able to go direct to places like SIN, but I don't expect too much beyond that.
Ninjas can kill anyone they want! Ninjas cut off heads all the time and don't even think twice about it.
 
B707Stu
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RE: Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 1:46 pm

My guess is DL buys a bunch, when they manage to get their act together, and ATL goes to a whole new level of hub.
 
lehpron
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RE: Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 2:21 pm

Um, Boeing did the market research and figured there was a need for such a product (as all companies), and 787 in this case will simply fill that projected need.

It is only new to all of us who do not sit analyzing numerical trends all day, believe me it is beyond boring!

Back in the day when 707 was being made, Boeing had a hunch it would revolutionize air travel, they didn't have to do a market watch. Nowadays, building a product just to watch what happens, whatever you may believe in, is sheer lunacy. Nothing is done until those investing in the idea believe it will work and that take a hell of a lot of data!

[Edited 2005-04-12 07:22:08]
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
NAV20
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RE: Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 4:53 pm

Quoting B707Stu (Thread starter):
For starters I can see many SOuth Asian (Indian bound) passengers taking non-stops from the US to India and by-passing European stops

Slight correction, Stu - the 787 is so far planned to have the same sort of range as the 747/A380, around 8,500 nms. Boeing's strategy appears to be two-pronged - it will be the Extended/Longer Range versions of the 777 that are likely to open up a new 'non-stop' field; indeed, Pakistan were the first order them and India looks like following their lead soon.

What I think the 787 WILL do - if the promised fuel economies eventuate - is make it possible to fly smaller numbers of passengers to a wider range of destinations at seat/mile costs that are comparable with, or even lower than, those of larger aeroplanes. For many years, before fuel costs rose to danger levels, the 'recognised' way to keep seat/mile costs down was to build bigger aeroplanes that could pack in more and more people; but this inevitably meant that airlines could only offer customers a limited range of destinations - basically the places the majority of a given load wanted to go to, with the minority needing to take a further local flight.

I definitely have the feeling that the 787 will change the field a lot. But not quite on the scale that the Comet 4/707 changed things. That was REALLY radical!
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
norcal
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RE: Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 9:14 pm

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 6):
Nowadays, building a product just to watch what happens, whatever you may believe in, is sheer lunacy. Nothing is done until those investing in the idea believe it will work and that take a hell of a lot of data!

I totally I agree, risk taking is sacrificed in order to please the share holders.  Sad
 
N79969
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RE: Impact Of The 787 On Global Markets

Tue Apr 12, 2005 9:24 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
I think it will be to the Pacific/Asian market what the 767 was to the Atlantic market.

I think this sums it up real well. 25 years ago, it would have been strange to discuss flights connecting Cincinatti or Charlotte to Paris or Frankfurt. That's clearly changed.

Boeing mentioned Phoenix to Shanghai as a 787 route some time ago. Seems strange now but if the 787's economics are as transforming as Boeing promises, then I do not see why not.

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