Here is who I think and why. I think (and am quite certain) that SQ will buy into NZ. There are many reasons for this.
Firstly, as I have said previously, SQ does not really want access to NZ...it is access to the Aussie domestic market they are after, and if buying into NZ is the only way this is possible, so be it.
Secondly, it would be a nightmare if QF was to buy into NZ, as NZ would then have to sell off AN (to SQ), and both QF and NZ would have to give up 50% of their trans-Tasman route.
Thirdly, with NZ and AN already being Star members tips the scales towards SQ.
Fourthly, AN needs fleet replacement not too far in the distant future, and SQ is the only airline with enough capital to be able inject the type of money that is necessary. NZ had to borrow heavily just to buy the remaining 50% of AN, so they would be in no position to replace AN's fleet. The only thing with this, is how is one to know that any money which SQ provides for AN, actually will go to AN and not NZ.
Although I think that SQ will get NZ, I personally hope that QF gets it's shareholding. It must be noted that neither QF or SQ want a shareholding in NZ because they are a great airline with great performance. SQ wants AN and QF wants to stop NZ/AN teaming up with SQ. AN would be so very much better off with having SQ as a *direct* owner. SO CMON QANTAS!!!