IADPax
Topic Author
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Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2005 12:27 pm

Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:59 am

Flyi stock closed at an all-time low of $.96 today. The May 1 schedule shows FOUR A319's plus four CRJ's daily to CLT. This is two weeks after announcing that 319 service to CLT would begin June 1 with three flights daily. Four 319's and four CRJ's to CLT, I don't think so . . . Can someone explain to me how they are going to fill those flights? It reminds me of when they started, what was the frequency to RDU? 17 CRJ's daily?
 
727LOVER
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:06 am

So this whole END IS NEAR thread is based on their CLT schedule???????  Yeah sure
I feel woozy....what did you put in that Pudding Pop?
 
FLAIRPORT
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:08 am

I hear CLT is their best market. So, maybe sales are so good that they needed to justify it with some A319s?

The end is not near for Indy, their loads are improving and the A319s are probably helping with the CASMs.

[Edited 2005-04-16 03:09:32]
NEXT FLIGHT: FLL-ATL-HPN on FL
 
gsoflyer
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:09 am

Maybe they are utilizing the planes to get pilot and aircraft hours while waiting for gate leases in the west.

I mean, come on, Indy is pulling in good load averages.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:24 am

Quoting Gsoflyer (Reply 3):

I mean, come on, Indy is pulling in good load averages.

but loads does not = yields.....if they are losing money on each flight, what good is it even if the flights are full? I think "The Street" (Wall St.) is looking for Indy to file for chapter 11 soon (judging from the stock price of flyi)...........this is one airline that might not survive in the near future...........there is still too much OVERCAPACITY!!!
"Up the Irons!"
 
jdaniel001
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:40 am

Does anyone know why the stock closed so low? Did they file any documents witht he SEC today? Their internal auditor suggested filing in September, but not now. This is very interesting. And the reason they are adding capacity to CLT is to try to build revenue. They are doing whatever it takes to build cash at this point.
We Are UNITED!
 
IADPax
Topic Author
Posts: 18
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:45 am

I don't disagree that their loads are good to CLT but they are not filling all seven CRJ's now. How are they going to fill four 319's and four CRJs? I'm just looking for an explanation; they issued a press release on March 29th announcing three A319s to CLT on June 1 and less than two weeks later the scheduled is changed to four 319s effective May 1. What happened in those two weeks? Advance bookings to Florida drop like a rock after April? They didn't know this?
 
FrequentFlyKid
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:50 am

Well I undestand that $0.96 per share is low, but you had to consider that the stock market hit a 2005 low today. Let's not write them off yet. Although the above post regarding overcapacity is an understatement.
 
LAXintl
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:53 am

Quoting Jdaniel001 (Reply 5):
Does anyone know why the stock closed so low?

Well today was a terrible day on the market. However having said that several airlines including AA, DL and Jetblue actually gained today in the midst of the sell off.

I think overall however the market is positioning the flyi stock in preparation for what is expected to be terrible first quarter earnings. Most analyst expect this years numbers to be much worse then the 1st quarter of 2004. Also afterall the company has like -50% operating margin, and precious little cash on hand.

The only recent real inside news this week was the company has its pilot union to consider paycuts and have the company stop funding their 401k program.

If anything a consistently low stock price under $1.00 will lead to the company getting delisted off the exchange.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
jdaniel001
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 11:03 am

Well I did some checking. It looks like DH new the loads to Florida were going to drop. Also they have the aircraft on hand by May 1st to start the west coast service (LAX, SFO, etc.). So it looks like the reduction in flights to Florida does not equal the same amount of flying to the west, so they had an opportunity to put additional Airbus flying somewhere and CLT probably fit the best.
We Are UNITED!
 
FutureFO
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 4:14 pm

Well lets see, an offering of $49 o/w to LAS and MCO does not equal profit. It is bound to happen that ACA will go the way of the Dodo here soon. They are pretty much looking at the future of N7,TW,and even now UA/US. Get your ACA items now as they will one day be collectors items.


Sean from MCO and MKE
I Don't know where I am anymore
 
CRJ900
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 7:55 pm

According to Flight International 5-11 April 2005, FlyI has 83 CRJ200s flying with another 34 CRJ200s on order. If the CRJs are no longer the preferred aircraft (expensive to operate, pax dissatisfaction etc), then what will FlyI do with the CRJs on order? 34 aircraft ain't exactly nothin' to just dump somewhere...

Would FlyI be better off converting the CRJ200 order into, say, 20 CRJ701s instead?
Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
 
CRJ900
Posts: 1937
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:24 pm

How many FAs are needed on a transcon A319 flight with an LCC? Doesn't Frontier and FlyI have 132 seats in their A319s? Do they only have 3 FAs or do they add a fourth to comply with any rest/break requirements?
Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
 
JBLUA320
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 8:37 pm

I wish you Indy bashers would take your negative attitude and stifle it. Fares (and therefore yields) are increasing on the older routes, such as EWR-IAD and IAD-GSO, two flights which I took yesterday (Friday 4/15) at a price of $360. Both flights went out with over 45 seats full on the CRJ, and the employees were talking about how quickly things have been turning around for the airline.

Don't write this airline off so soon. They had a shaky start with over capacity, but that problem is quickly coming to a resolve.

This was the first time I flew Indy and I can see why people swear by them-- Indys fans will not let them collapse... they have built a VERY loyal following not only in the New York area, but in the DC area as well.

JBLU
 
jdaniel001
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:16 pm

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 11):
According to Flight International 5-11 April 2005, FlyI has 83 CRJ200s flying with another 34 CRJ200s on order.

Those orders were cancelled a year ago and they have given some CRJ's back to the lessor. They are/will be operating with a fleet of 58 or 59. I guess the 59th is in court.
We Are UNITED!
 
allstarflyer
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:22 pm

Quoting 727LOVER (Reply 1):
So this whole END IS NEAR thread is based on their CLT schedule???????

 rotfl  Yeah, no kidding.

Quoting FutureFO (Reply 10):
Get your ACA items now as they will one day be collectors items.

I'd like to take that as an objective viewpoint, but from recollection, I don't remember much of anything positive (and there are some positives) this person has had to say about DH.

-R
Living the American Dream
 
avek00
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 9:41 pm

Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 13):
I wish you Indy bashers would take your negative attitude and stifle it.

With respect, you are confusing a negative attitude with a REALISTIC mindset toward Indy's current situation- the cold truth is that Indy is only building its load factors via rock-bottom fare sales, something that it cannot afford given that its operation is MORE expensive to run than the legacy carriers it is competing against.

Mainline CASMs for the 4th quarter of 2004:

DH CASM: 17.8
US CASM: 10.96
UA CASM: 10.68
DL CASM: 10.23
CO CASM: 9.98

While DH has managed to bring its CASM below 20 cents/mile, it is still far and away the most expensive operation to run vs. its direct competitors.
Live life to the fullest.
 
jdaniel001
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sat Apr 16, 2005 10:19 pm

Avek00 - where did the info come from? We need to look at 1st quarter 2005 for a comparsion. I know for a fact that both UA and US are in the low 8's. And DH should be somewhere around there. It should be higher, they still are absorbing startup costs.
We Are UNITED!
 
VEEREF
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 12:05 am

The whole CLT thing could be based partly on the announcement by WN that they were considering CLT as a possble new destination. Perhaps a case of one LCC trying to beat the other to the punch to grab customer loyalty before the other gets there?
Also there must be opportunity here if WN and FL decided it is worth a shot.
Why put 319's on if RJ's aren't full? Well, that's economics and I don't know squat about that. I do know that just as some folks prefer an RJ over a turboprop, some will favor a mainline aircraft vs RJ. Perhaps a marketing strategy on DH's part......
Also, CLT boasts some of the highest fares of any hub in the country, so you could probably base your fares low enough to stimulate traffic yet keep them high enough for a decent yield.

If I had to guess.......
Airplanes are cool. Aviation sucks.
 
jfr
Posts: 136
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 12:09 am

JBLUA320 is right....I like this airline a lot. They are my airline of choice when traveling from biz (ORD) to family (CAE).

I travel a very great deal...mostly round-the-world's....am right now in SE Asia in the middle of a typical multi-city, multi-airline trip, and am a very substantial SQ Solitaire guy. I know great airlines.....

But in America today, Independence is delivering the goods. I'll be pleased to use them whenever I can, and will miss them a lot if they can't make it.

Sorry to say, I likewise would NOT miss US, DL, etc........
 
ual777
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 12:33 am

Have you guys seen Indy's load factors? With their costs, and the fares that they are charging, they would be lucky to turn a profit with a 100% load factor.

I also think that it is rediculous to suggest that "Loyal fans in NYC" are going to keep Indy from going under. Im sure UA, US, AA, etc. have plenty of loyal fans too, but you do not see them being "saved".

I just hope indy goes back to what it is best at for the employees sake.
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
avek00
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 12:46 am

Quoting Jdaniel001 (Reply 17):
Avek00 - where did the info come from? We need to look at 1st quarter 2005 for a comparsion. I know for a fact that both UA and US are in the low 8's. And DH should be somewhere around there. It should be higher, they still are absorbing startup costs.

All of this info. came directly from the airline's respective Q4 2004 SEC filings. The data for Q1 2005 is not yet available.

UA and US might have fuel-excluded CASMs of approx. 8 cents, but they certainly do NOT have 8 cent CASMs including fuel. And there's no way in hell a virtually all-RJ carrier will have a CASM approaching that of a LCC.

[Edited 2005-04-16 17:47:12]
Live life to the fullest.
 
F9Animal
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:12 am

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 16):
With respect, you are confusing a negative attitude with a REALISTIC mindset toward Indy's current situation- the cold truth is that Indy is only building its load factors via rock-bottom fare sales, something that it cannot afford given that its operation is MORE expensive to run than the legacy carriers it is competing against.

Mainline CASMs for the 4th quarter of 2004:

DH CASM: 17.8
US CASM: 10.96
UA CASM: 10.68
DL CASM: 10.23
CO CASM: 9.98

While DH has managed to bring its CASM below 20 cents/mile, it is still far and away the most expensive operation to run vs. its direct competitors.

With the 319's coming in, the CASM should be dropping. The 319's will help lower it, and the airline will find a niche. I am keeping my fingers crossed that Indy pulls through. As they transform from a feeder to an airline, they have many challenges. The tweaking and fine tuning takes time, and Indy knew they were not going to pull profits on its first year or two of operations. Very few airlines that start out rake in profits.

From what I have heard, Indy has very good service. That is important, especially as keeping customers is hard to do nowdays.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
lat41
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:23 am

Sounds like some of you want Independence to fail and take great glee at each misfortune. I hope they hang in there but realize that their debt/equity must be horrendous. We'll see. There may be a white knight somewhere as well (we'd hope).
 
avek00
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:34 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 22):
With the 319's coming in, the CASM should be dropping. The 319's will help lower it, and the airline will find a niche. I am keeping my fingers crossed that Indy pulls through. As they transform from a feeder to an airline, they have many challenges. The tweaking and fine tuning takes time, and Indy knew they were not going to pull profits on its first year or two of operations. Very few airlines that start out rake in profits.

1. The CASM has already dropped - it was at over 20 cents/mile when this monstrosity first took flight.

2. As indicated in its 10-K filing, the business traffic that Indy was counting on to cover its sky-high costs did not materialize.

3. But for the mercy of its lessor, Indy Air would have died months ago. Their continued survival has less to do with any attempt to make the company a success than with the fact that a 50+ RJ fleet cannot be easily placed anywhere.

Quoting Lat41 (Reply 23):
Sounds like some of you want Independence to fail and take great glee at each misfortune. I hope they hang in there but realize that their debt/equity must be horrendous. We'll see. There may be a white knight somewhere as well (we'd hope).

DH has polluted East Coast yields to a point where it ceases to be funny. I can't wait for the monstrosity to end, so that airlines that really have a halfway decent shot surviving can charge the fares necessary to do so.
Live life to the fullest.
 
FrequentFlyKid
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:57 am

Government regulation is near!
 
bohica
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 1:58 am

Just what we need. Another FlyI bashing thread. This topic has been beaten to death just like Northwest DC9's, A vs. B, dirty Air France planes, Iberia's lousy service, etc.

Moderators: Please create a forum called "Beaten to death" and put all these redundant topics in it. Thanks.
 
ludavid777
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2001 2:59 am

RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 2:33 am

Quoting IADPax (Thread starter):
Flyi stock closed at an all-time low of $.96 today. The May 1 schedule shows FOUR A319's plus four CRJ's daily to CLT. This is two weeks after announcing that 319 service to CLT would begin June 1 with three flights daily. Four 319's and four CRJ's to CLT, I don't think so . . . Can someone explain to me how they are going to fill those flights? It reminds me of when they started, what was the frequency to RDU? 17 CRJ's daily?

Where did you get that we start 4 319's to CLT on May 1st? A319 service to CLT DOES NOT start until June 1st as announced. I'm a Flight attendant and I'm checking our May bid packet and the is no 319 to CLT in May, and according to our employee travel website it does not start until June 1st. Not sure where you got the info, but its not correct...
 
padcrasher
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 2:46 am

It's ugly, but the last time I looked at their cash/cash burn versus US Airway, Indy would be able to outlast them. Having US out of the WAS market would really boost revenue.
 
UN_B732
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 2:50 am

they're going to get delisted if this continues!
What now?
 
galapagapop
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 2:53 am

Their Casm may be higher but doesn't their RASM go higher because of the number of flights those little CRJ's can do?

I feel for Indy, I like that them and their service and yes they have built up a following in the NY area, they just need a little more advertising....
 
jdaniel001
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 3:14 am

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 21):
UA and US might have fuel-excluded CASMs of approx. 8 cents, but they certainly do NOT have 8 cent CASMs including fuel.

I agree, I think everyone is excluding fuel to look good at this point.

Quoting Lat41 (Reply 23):
Sounds like some of you want Independence to fail and take great glee at each misfortune.

There is no glee in a carrier failing and jobs being lost. But the lessor of the two evils is FlyI going away to save thousands of other jobs.
We Are UNITED!
 
jacobin777
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 3:43 am

Quoting Lat41 (Reply 23):
Sounds like some of you want Independence to fail and take great glee at each misfortune.

most sane people don't gloat upon other's misfortunates..that being said, the reality of the situation for flyi isn't the best....and overcapacity=overcapacity...there really isn't any other way to put it.....there are TOO MANY CARRIERS.....nothing more, nothing less...

removing some carriers (and jobs) for the good of the others in a free market is the best and fairest way to solve this problem

a free market economy maybe at times has its edges, but over the long term, it proves to be the best...

if flyi can develop a good business plan AND execute it, it will do well...REGARDLESS of what people here (or others) think...simple as that..
"Up the Irons!"
 
GMUAirbusA320
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 5:37 am

We've got a "Big" announcement on monday....hopefully it's something of value. They've increased OT in the reservations center on Monday. HMMMM

Don't hate us...we've come a long way baby!!!

REMEMBER....FLYi!

Cheers,
GMUAirbusA320
 
MD88Captain
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 5:49 am

Independence Air's load factor break even is supposed to be over 120% based on a briefing I attended at work 2 days ago.
 
avek00
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 5:49 am

Quoting GMUAirbusA320 (Reply 33):
We've got a "Big" announcement on monday....hopefully it's something of value. They've increased OT in the reservations center on Monday. HMMMM

Don't hate us...we've come a long way baby!!!

Probably just another systemwide $X9 sale.

And yes, your employer has come a long way - from being a large profitable regional operator to being the laughingstock of the ENTIRE airline business...
Live life to the fullest.
 
JBLUA320
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:00 am

Avek,

And with all due respect to you, why don't you speak for yourself. I know over 50 people at Continental, jetBlue and Delta- none of which think Independence Air is the laughing stock of the ENTIRE airline business as you like to put it.

And I am not confusing reality here. I know Indy is in trouble- please, the way people like you post things on this forum, every other thread is about how Indy or US or UA or someone is going to collapse next day. I dont know what this airline did to piss you off-- if they pissed you off at all-- but maybe YOU, not me, needs to stop confusing reality with predetermined biases.

Its like you are rooting for this airline to fail. So you can laugh all you want. I just hope you end up in a position where your company is on the brink of failure, and I hope someone walks up to you and tells you that they wish your company would just disappear. People pour their hearts and souls into making Indy a good airline. And if that means nothing to you, then I feel extremely sorry for you.

If you think comments like yours are helping or even marginally contributing to what could be a semi-interesting thread (moreso if a new one didn't pop up every 5 minutes), then you are sadly mistaken. I think I can speak for others besides myself (but not the ENTIRE website... as I don't like to speak for large masses of people and make broad assumptions like certain other people on here) when I say that I am sick of people like you who make abysmal comments like yours on an issue thats been beaten to death MANY times before.

Give it a rest.

JBLU
 
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mariner
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:03 am

Quoting Lat41 (Reply 23):
Sounds like some of you want Independence to fail and take great glee at each misfortune.

I take no glee in it whatsoever. I think the whole situation involving IAir and the other airlines on the east coast is totally depressing. I think the situation at US Airways is a joke, and, for the most part, I think several airlines have completely abandoned their fiduciary duty to their shareholders.

It may not be illegal, but it is certainly immoral.

That said, IAir was a really bad idea from the git-go.

At the time the IAir plan was conceived, the US, and especially the US east coast, was already suffering from blatant over-capacity. ACA's plan to become IAir only added to this.

A lot of people, including myself, said that becoming LCC using high cost RJ's simply didn't add up. And a lot of people tried to shout us down.

Since the operation began they have been a basket case, but in order to try and survive they are destroying yields on the east coast, and now they're starting to do it on the west coast, too.

I think the IAir management have behaved disgracefully. They have pissed away a fortune in shareholder equity, and their main reason for doing it is ego - and to stick it to United.

They are kept alive only because their lessors have not foreclosed - because those lessors have no idea what to do with all those RJ's that no other airline wants.

Yet some people here want IAir to survive because - well, I don't know why. Just because, it seems. An amazing sentimentality exists about failed airlines.

I am aware that people will lose their jobs if IAir goes under. A lot more people in a lot of other airlines will lose their jobs if IAir stays.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
JBLUA320
Posts: 2997
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:20 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 37):

Not that Indy hasn't had an effect on yields in the northeast, but I think US Airways was on the path to destroying yields anyway. I mean, its been a "how low can you go" party here on the east coast for a long time.

And I dont want Indy to survive "just because". I want them to survive because I think there is something to be said for having the spirit to break away from a company thats treating you like garbage. After having flown them, and as I will fly them tomorrow, every employee has been friendly. These people care-- apparently a lot more than the upper level management at UA because if UA management gave a damn, maybe Indy would never have wanted to stop providing service for them.

I understand what your saying, though, in regards to CASMs and such with a CRJ... an obvious issue that they were aware of from the start. Their initial plan was ambitious- overly so- but I think its a stretch to say that they single handedly destroyed yields on the east coast. $49 fare sales and the like have been all over the place for over a year. Back in September/October, NYC-FLL went on a sale like that with round trips at $115. AirTran, jetBlue, spirit and Continental all had $115 round trip fares (and thats after tax).

Im not saying Indy is going to survive. I want them to. But them trying to make it work isn't singlehandedly putting other airline employees out of a job. Its the entire condition of the industry. If you are saying that Indy hasn't helped relieve the problem by becoming their own airline... I don't think they have harmed it either. Overcapacity was everywhere before they came... and if they think they can make it work, then props to them for trying.

I think this industry is survival of the fittest. And you do what you have to do in order to survive or you go down fighting...

JBLU
 
jdaniel001
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Joined: Wed Mar 16, 2005 2:36 pm

RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:26 am

Quoting GMUAirbusA320 (Reply 33):
We've got a "Big" announcement on monday....

This annoucement should be for the new cities.
We Are UNITED!
 
ludavid777
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri Jun 29, 2001 2:59 am

RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:38 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 37):
I think the IAir management have behaved disgracefully. They have pissed away a fortune in shareholder equity, and their main reason for doing it is ego - and to stick it to United.

Yeah because if we would've stuck to United we would've been garanteed a so much brighter future! kinda like the one AirWisconsin got for sticking with them! Get over yourself!
 
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mariner
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:39 am

Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 38):
I want them to survive because I think there is something to be said for having the spirit to break away from a company thats treating you like garbage.

As I see it, that's part of the problem. United may have treated ACA like garbage (that's a value judgement), but they paid AC A handsomely in the process.

ACA (and thus IAir) only exists because of the huge amounts of money they shovelled into the bank - from United.

Shareholders invested in ACA based on the contracts with United, and the expectation that those contracts - and thus that income - would continue.

The new economic reality dictated that United could not go on lining ACA's bank account so handsomely, but they were still offering a cost plus contract - a contract with a built in profit over costs.

And those shareholders who invested in ACA on the expectation of continued profits have been spectacularly shafted.

Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 38):
but I think its a stretch to say that they single handedly destroyed yields on the east coast.

I don't think I said "singlehandedly". I started my post by saying that I think the situation at US Airways is a joke. There are many to blame in the destruction of yields.

There are many to blame in the chaos that is the US civil aviation industry at the moment.

But ACA's decision to add bulk capacity at a time of over-capacity and charge rock bottom fares to entice pax surely didn't help.

Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 38):
If you are saying that Indy hasn't helped relieve the problem by becoming their own airline... I don't think they have harmed it either.

How have they not harmed it?

Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 38):
Overcapacity was everywhere before they came..

And they added more.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
blsbls99
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:43 am

There's a lot of talk about "overcapacity" in the east coast market in this thread. Yet, Southwest seems to be adding 30+ aircraft to their fleet this year and next and opening up service/cities/stations in the east coast market. Obviously they can do so, and eek out a profit (probably thanks to their fuel hedging programs).
But even without Southwest doing so, it sure does seem that every other US carrier (except ATA) has been adding capacity or increasing ASM's.
So, is it an overcapacity issue?
Or is it a fuel cost issue along with a sensitive yield issue?
I'm sure that every airline out there would like to charge more for each passenger ticket they sell, yet it seems that when they try, they end up losing more revenue to the competition. An empty airplane seat makes you no revenue and no profit, yet there are still costs that don't go away.
I believe Indy's biggest issue is fuel cost, as is every other airline's issue. That issue wouldn't be so much of a hurdle if it in an environment where the traveling public was so price sensitive.
319 320 313 722 732 733 735 73G 738 739 742 752 763 772 CRJ D9S ERJ EMB L10 M88 M90 SF3 AT4
 
jdaniel001
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:45 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 37):
That said, IAir was a really bad idea from the git-go.

Sorry, I disagree. The concept is great. Jetblue will do the same thing when they get their EMB190's. DH just did it backwards. Also there has been people driving to BWI for years to fly the cheap fares. DH just wanted to have the Virginians fly from their own airport. It's a big picture concept.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 37):
I am aware that people will lose their jobs if IAir goes under. A lot more people in a lot of other airlines will lose their jobs if IAir stays.

Amen, brother.

Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 38):
the spirit to break away from a company thats treating you like garbage

UA treated DH very well for 14 years. DH would not have been able to break away if it weren't for the great relationship built with UA. Don't let anyone ever tell you different either.

Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 38):
These people care--

Unfortunately they have to care more. There jobs are at stake.

Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 38):
I think this industry is survival of the fittest.

And DH is not fit. Or a least fit enough to survive.
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jdaniel001
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:50 am

Quoting Blsbls99 (Reply 42):
There's a lot of talk about "overcapacity" in the east coast market in this thread. Yet, Southwest seems to be adding 30+ aircraft to their fleet this year and next and opening up service/cities/stations in the east coast market.

But WN's capacity is not neccesarily "intra-east coast" like most of US's routes. They are flying people out west. I think there should be a defined differnce in capacity. How much capicity is from BOS to WAS and points in between for example, versus say BOS/NYC/WAS to the midwest or northwest or southwest.
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Planesmart
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 6:51 am

Mariner, it's a free market. So long as they play by the rules, all is fair in love and war........ And since when have morales & ethics featured high on the list of must have attributes in US business?

B's acquisition of McD would be a perfect example. Yes, we will look after and develop the civil aviation side of the business said B execs. And did the exact opposite. How many former McD staff now wish A had bought out the civil biz?

You may be right about some of the lessors. But didn't the doctors, dentists, lawyers, etc, egos get the better of them too, with the the thought of being able to boast they were in the commercial jet leasing business. They took money out of the hands & mouths of established operators, but thats business.

A decade ago, NZ suffered from overcapacity in the meat industry. While big plants were closing, shareholders and financiers were busy funding new boutique ventures.

Indy is a boutique operator. They will either survive in some shape or form, or go under.

If i was writing a report card, i would have to give them points for being brave, standing up to bullies, market agility, keeping staff, suppliers and customers on-side, getting back up when knocked down, etc.

In contrast, some of the biggest airlines in the USA demonstrate little or no effort, other than hiding behind Chapter 11 (or threatening too), slashing and burning everything (including customers, staff and suppliers) and constantly holding their hands out for more credit lines, with threats of or else.

In a very negative market, Indy is trying very hard to grow to scale, rather than reverse.

At the end of the day they may be out-survived by those with bigger pockets or access to others with even bigger pockets. A re-structured US airline industry may happen too late for them.

Indy management and staff wouldn't be a bad start for a new airline group post re-structure.
 
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mariner
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:23 am

Jdaniel001:

Quoting Jdaniel001 (Reply 43):
The concept is great. JetBlue will do the same when they get their EMB190's

Not the same, sorry. (a) JetBlue will be expanding an existing customer base and (b) the EMB190's are not RJ's, they have a much lower CASM.

Quoting Jdaniel001 (Reply 43):
DH just wanted to have the Virginians fly from their own airport. It's a big picture concept.

My heart bleeds for those poor Virginians. My heart bleeds more for the ACA shareholders.

PlaneSmart:

Quoting PlaneSmart (Reply 45):
Mariner, it's a free market. So long as they play by the rules, all is fair in love and war..

I agree. I am a complete free marketeer.

Except that it isn't a free market. The moment you introduce - as in the US - Chapter 11 into the equaition, the "free market" goes out the window.

Which is why I started my post by saying that the situation at US Airways is a joke (I should have added United to that).

My concern is two fold:

(i) the state of the US civil aviation industry. I don't lose any sleep over it, but I think the last thing that it needs right now is sentimentality.

And:

(ii) The shareholders - of any airline. If I invest in a company, any company, it is because of a certain business model that the company has established - or the people running that company.

People did not originally invest in JetBlue, they invested in David Neeleman.

Most people did not invest in IAir, they invested in ACA. Sure, they had the chance to get out, to sell, but the snow job was fairly effective - there was a lot of comparison with JetBlue.

It is entirely possible that, some six months ago, if IAir had dissolved, the shareholders might (stress "might") have received more money than they would now. But, it seems, screw the shareholders is the order of the day.

Similarly, at US Airways, Chairman Bronner publicly stated that the creditors would get more if he filed Chapter 7 rather than a second Chapter 11.

So, the question is, why didn't he file Chapter 7?

Quoting PlaneSmart (Reply 45):
And since when have morales & ethics featured high on the list of must have attributes in US business?

So you say we should just accept that? Sorry, I won't. I don't. Just as I would not invest in companies that had dealings with South Africa during the apartheid years, so I choose my companies now.

I believe it is possible to invest and make money and still retain a moral compass.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
piedmontnut
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:26 am

Quoting Bohica (Reply 26):
Moderators: Please create a forum called "Beaten to death" and put all these redundant topics in it. Thanks.

Indeed. Talk about beating a (dead) horse. * The dead comment was in no way meant to be rude or loathsome toward Flyi.com or its employees whom I respect.

Regards.
May the A380 arrive @ MCO in the near future.
 
avek00
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:44 am

Quoting JBLUA320 (Reply 36):
Its like you are rooting for this airline to fail. So you can laugh all you want. I just hope you end up in a position where your company is on the brink of failure, and I hope someone walks up to you and tells you that they wish your company would just disappear.

1. Heck yeah I want the monstrosity known as Indy Air to cease operations, or at least go back to shacking up with United. Right now it's just an East Coast parasite that wants to make life hell for airlines in the West & Midwest too. The sooner they are gone, the better off the rest of the US airline industry will be.

At first, I championed ACA's decision to give United the finger. However, once the plans of Indy Air became clear (an almost all-RJ fleet, dumping obscene amounts of capacity on already well-served routes, and charging unsustainably low rock-bottom fares), I knew that this monstrosity could not and must not continue for very long.

2. I wouldn't stay employed with a company that is on the brink of failure, period.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 37):
I think the IAir management have behaved disgracefully. They have pissed away a fortune in shareholder equity, and their main reason for doing it is ego - and to stick it to United.

They are kept alive only because their lessors have not foreclosed - because those lessors have no idea what to do with all those RJ's that no other airline wants.

Yet some people here want IAir to survive because - well, I don't know why. Just because, it seems. An amazing sentimentality exists about failed airlines.

I am aware that people will lose their jobs if IAir goes under. A lot more people in a lot of other airlines will lose their jobs if IAir stays.

Amen mariner, amen.
Live life to the fullest.
 
jdaniel001
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RE: Independence Air-the End Is Near?

Sun Apr 17, 2005 7:53 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 46):
Not the same, sorry. (a) JetBlue will be expanding an existing customer base and (b) the EMB190's are not RJ's, they have a much lower CASM.

Uh...yes it is the same. Same principal. That what I meant by DH taking the back door approach.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 46):
My heart bleeds for those poor Virginians. My heart bleeds more for the ACA shareholders.

You can't be serious. "My heart bleeds...."

Let me set the record straight for everyone. This is a well beaten horse. So this link is the original business plan. This was the same one presented to stockholders, the same one presented to employees, the same one that if ANYONE who did a search on the internet would find. Hopefully this will help our friends who live outside of the U.S. to understand what DH was thinking. This was a very viable plan. What this plan does not state however, is that Jet-A wasn't expected to climb to record highs, that US should have liquidated in Jan., and UA should have closed the IAD hub. Obviously the last two were expected to happen due to the pressure that Independence Air placed on the two aforementioned carriers. But with that said, airline is an airline is an airline - there is a seat to carry a person from point A to point B. And I hope JBLUA320 enjoyed his flight on DH today.
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