rjpieces
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Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:15 am

The events of the past two days have me wondering. Boeing has made no secret of the fact that they plan to roll out a narrowbody aircraft to replace the 737NGs/A32X that will be based on 787 technology and I'm assuming it will be part of the common 787 family (There goes one of the main Airbus marketing tools, that the 32X and 330/340 have commonality).

So with all of the airlines expected to eventually order the 787, and those that have already such as Air Canada, are they more likely to replace their A32X fleets when the time comes with Boeing's replacement based on the 787 that's already in their fleets?

It will be much easier for airlines like United and Northwest, assuming both order the 787, to replace their 32Xs with the 787 derivative.

Also, Airbus seems to lack an aircraft to bring them into the 21st century. Boeing has the 787 that will sell amazingly well and they are already planning on designing future aircraft around it. Airbus doesn't have an aircraft that will be the base of all of their future products. In the long term, they have nothing for the medium capacity market (as the 787 is going to kill the 330 market) and nothing for the lowercapacity markets. It seems that Airbus is going to have design a brand new plane sooner rather than later if they want to stay in the game.
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
NYC777
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:25 am

While Boeing seems to have an edge with the new technology they are developing/have developed for the 787 (and already planning on how to adapt it toa new narrowbody). I wouldn't count out Airbus from responding aggressively. They are far behind IMHO mainly because they decided to focus on the A380 which has taken up so much time, money and resources not to mention that they are in a debt hole until the A380 program starts to turn a profit. This is why they offered a warmed over A330 which isn't selling they will have to go back to the drawing board to produce a worthy competitor to the 787 but that will take a lot more time (2012-2013 EIS) and more money (>$5bn) to accomplish. By that time Boeing will be far ahead of the game for a A32xx/737NG replacement.

Boeing has to be very aggressive about it and plan for an aggressive move by Airbus.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
mham001
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:38 am

It appears NYC777s scenerio is correct. If it holds true and Boeing can succeed with the technology and continues to be aggressive, the 380 could be one of the greatest business blunders in history-even if it eventually breaks even.
 
a380900
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:46 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 2):
one of the greatest business blunders in history-even if it eventually breaks even.

Sorry to tell you that there are plenty of contenders that nowhere neared to break-even. What you say makes no sense.
 
Glom
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:48 am

It all depends on how much Airbus can extend the use of GLARE. That needed a strong lightweight material for the A380, and that might provide them with a tool of their own. I know they said babbled on about the durability issue, but let's face it, that has the same validity of the "4 engines 4 long haul" mantra.
 
airfrnt
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:54 am

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):


The events of the past two days have me wondering. Boeing has made no secret of the fact that they plan to roll out a narrowbody aircraft to replace the 737NGs/A32X that will be based on 787 technology and I'm assuming it will be part of the common 787 family (There goes one of the main Airbus marketing tools, that the 32X and 330/340 have commonality).

The family combination of 777 and 787 seems to be absolutly devestating right now.

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):

It will be much easier for airlines like United and Northwest, assuming both order the 787, to replace their 32Xs with the 787 derivative.

I don't think that Northwest would replace the 32Xs any time soon. In fact in 10-15 years I think we will be asking when NW is going to retire them. There decision not to retire the DC-9s factors in here. As far as United, Airbus is a major major creditor to them right now. United announcing a huge order for new Boeings would not go over well with them.

I think the 737E growth is going to start with Southwest, and grow via the LCCs and whatever legacies survive that Airbus doesn't own a huge chunk of.

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
Also, Airbus seems to lack an aircraft to bring them into the 21st century. Boeing has the 787 that will sell amazingly well and they are already planning on designing future aircraft around it. Airbus doesn't have an aircraft that will be the base of all of their future products. In the long term, they have nothing for the medium capacity market (as the 787 is going to kill the 330 market) and nothing for the lowercapacity markets. It seems that Airbus is going to have design a brand new plane sooner rather than later if they want to stay in the game.

The success of the 787 as a platform is huge and very well placed capacity wise. It's midsize, so there are lessons to be learned for both the 737E and the eventual 777 replacement/747ADV. Airbus has the A380, but the majority of technical problems that Airbus has had to learn about with the A380 have to do with size. My speculation is that this knowledge is much less applicable to a next generation A320.

The other factor working in boeings favor right now is that the A320 was introduced well before the 737NG. That means that any sales by a next generate vehicle will likely be a take away from Airbus.
 
NYC777
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:59 am

Quoting A380900 (Reply 3):
Sorry to tell you that there are plenty of contenders that nowhere neared to break-even. What you say makes no sense

Actually it does. Airbus has to pay back the loans as well as all the other development costs. They can do that until they start to deliver planes to customers. So for them to pay back the total $14bn in development costs (including the loans) they would need earmark any profit from other programs (A320/A330/A340) towards that. That means that they cannot use any free cashflow towards the development of a better A350 (the current forms just is horrible) or a next gen narrowbody.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
gigneil
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replaceme

Thu Apr 28, 2005 1:59 am

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
It will be much easier for airlines like United and Northwest, assuming both order the 787, to replace their 32Xs with the 787 derivative.

Why? Neither replaced their 737 or DC-9s with 737NGs or MD90s despite operating widebody fleets predominantly made by the corresponding manufacturer.

When you're talking fleets of 60 airplanes, commonality with the rest of your fleet isn't really as big a deal as when you're talking about a total aircraft count of 15 or 30.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):

The family combination of 777 and 787 seems to be absolutly devestating right now.

Lets be clear. They are not a family of airplanes. They're different aircraft with wildly different systems and spares and maintenance routines with different type ratings.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
The other factor working in boeings favor right now is that the A320 was introduced well before the 737NG. That means that any sales by a next generate vehicle will likely be a take away from Airbus.

That's also a disadvantage. Any new generation by Boeing means they're not spreading out the development costs of the 737NG across as many airplanes, and they're having to replace their younger plane before Airbus' plane even loses any steam.

N
 
Glom
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 2:10 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 7):
That's also a disadvantage. Any new generation by Boeing means they're not spreading out the development costs of the 737NG across as many airplanes, and they're having to replace their younger plane before Airbus' plane even loses any steam.

I thought the A32S was selling better than the 737NG, hence Airbus have more to lose than Boeing.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
Airbus has the A380, but the majority of technical problems that Airbus has had to learn about with the A380 have to do with size.

Don't count that value out yet. Remember, weight conservation is a major problem with a very large aircraft. Even if the A380 is running overweight, think about how much it would have weighed had it just been a scaled up A340 etc. The weight saving technologies, such as GLARE, can be put to use. Sometimes, solutions to one problem can be applied to another, just in the way that the solutions to the Sonic Cruiser problem were applied to the 787.
 
mham001
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 2:16 am

Quoting A380900 (Reply 3):
Sorry to tell you that there are plenty of contenders that nowhere neared to break-even. What you say makes no sense.

Sure it does, in the big picture. While Boeing has changed the model and our way of thinking about aircraft, Airbus *appears* to have all its resources completely tied up in a niche product. The technologies developed in that niche product *appear* to fall short of what Boeing is developing. The 380 may eventually break even, but at a huge cost when you consider lost time, sales and progression.
 
ei2ksea
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 2:31 am

I think that that comparing Airbus and Boeing in terms of development of new aircraft isnt such a fair comparison...now i'm not particualrly biased - i'm a european who wants to see Airbus prosper but i have a deep love for all products Boeing since i was a kid....here are my thoughts.

My belief is that both manufacturers are at different stages in their new aircraft design/development cycle. Look at Airbus; its A320 from a design standpoint is only beginning to push the 20 year old level and I would anticipate that an A320X upgrade is the next obvious step - similar to Boeing with its B733 in the early 1980s leading subsequently to the B737NG in the early 1990s. These upgraded Boeing variants were well able to compete with the A320's lacklustre initial sales in the 1980s and only now is the B737 appearing to lose momentum (albeit still selling strongly). With an updated A320, i am quite sure it could compete effectively with any new small Boeing.

Likewise if we look to larger aircraft - the Boeing 767 was eclipsed by the A332 particularly in the late 1990s as it was a much newer design with superior economics in particular segments. Still, the B767 was already a success for Boeing from before the A330 was even heard of and was coming to the end of its design life. I do believe that the B787 will be a huge challenge for present Airbus offerings, but then its a logical step for Boeing as its first new aircraft design in the 250 pax arena since the 767 in the late 1970s. Airbus must try to derive as much value from the current airframe before it resorts to a new design. Hopefully the A350 is not their best answer!

Pardon my few babblings!!
Next Flight: DUB-BOS (EI), BOS-DEN-PDX (SWA), SEA-BOS (AS)
 
rjpieces
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 2:55 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 1):
While Boeing seems to have an edge with the new technology they are developing/have developed for the 787 (and already planning on how to adapt it toa new narrowbody). I wouldn't count out Airbus from responding aggressively. They are far behind IMHO mainly because they decided to focus on the A380 which has taken up so much time, money and resources not to mention that they are in a debt hole until the A380 program starts to turn a profit. This is why they offered a warmed over A330 which isn't selling they will have to go back to the drawing board to produce a worthy competitor to the 787 but that will take a lot more time (2012-2013 EIS) and more money (>$5bn) to accomplish. By that time Boeing will be far ahead of the game for a A32xx/737NG replacement.

I agree. Airbus is going to need to design a new aircraft eventually, and when they do they will be years behind Boeing.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
The family combination of 777 and 787 seems to be absolutly devestating right now.

Well, I think it's because the new 777s (-300ER and -200LR) are reaching the marketplace and operating beyond expectations. It just so happens that the 777 and 787 complement each other very well in that they are both the superior aircraft in their respective fields, which is why I think they are both selling very well right now.

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
I don't think that Northwest would replace the 32Xs any time soon. In fact in 10-15 years I think we will be asking when NW is going to retire them. There decision not to retire the DC-9s factors in here. As far as United, Airbus is a major major creditor to them right now. United announcing a huge order for new Boeings would not go over well with them.

I didn't mean within the next 5 years. Clearly NW has to replace their DC-9s before their A32X. Nonetheless, A32X replacement is on the distant horizon and will be an issue ten years from now.

But United is most likely going to order the 7E7 simply because any A330 would be too large to replace their 767 fleet. The 330 was always bigger than the 767.

I think the 737E growth is going to start with Southwest, and grow via the LCCs and whatever legacies survive that Airbus doesn't own a huge chunk of.

There's clearly a large market for such a plane. Don't forget that WN can't keep operating their planes forever. They too will need to replace some older aircraft eventually and the new 737E would be a great aircraft to replace older 737s and allow for expansion.

Quoting EI2KSEA (Reply 10):
With an updated A320, i am quite sure it could compete effectively with any new small Boeing.

I don't think so. The 320 is basically a 1980s aircraft. If Boeing designs a brand new 737 based on 787 technology, Airbus would have a difficult time making the 32X compete with that. I guess you can compare it to the 350 vs the 787 today.
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
Rj111
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 3:21 am

I'm assuming it will be part of the common 787 family

Well that's a huge assumption.

For the record commonality between A320 and A330/A340 isn't really one of Airbus's main marketing tools. Commonality between the A330/A340 is.

If Airbus's future looks as bleak as this thread portrays, expect them to react. They're not stupid.

I don't like this thread, there's too many 'ifs'.
 
Glom
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 3:28 am

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 11):
The 320 is basically a 1980s aircraft. If Boeing designs a brand new 737 based on 787 technology, Airbus would have a difficult time making the 32X compete with that. I guess you can compare it to the 350 vs the 787 today.

The 737NG is holding its own against the A32X and it is from an even older design.
 
lehpron
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 3:44 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 2):
the 380 could be one of the greatest business blunders in history-even if it eventually breaks even.

Could. I doubt it. Or do you mean A350 then I agree.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 6):
Airbus has to pay back the loans as well as all the other development costs. They can do that until they start to deliver planes to customers. So for them to pay back the total $14bn in development costs (including the loans) they would need earmark any profit from other programs (A320/A330/A340) towards that.

This would be the case for any aircraft manufacturer that produces a new product or introduces a product to their line. If Airbus simply getting your limelight for the time being because you are aware of it?

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 6):
That means that they cannot use any free cashflow towards the development of a better A350 (the current forms just is horrible) or a next gen narrowbody.

Niether can any other company pay back anyone shareholders/investors until something is built and delivered, do not single out any company for your convenience. However I believe A350 should be cancelled or have the mission statement rewritten (total design shrinkage) to compete with Boeing's "797" (it seems obvious to me that a future 737 replacement would be called that, they do not have anything else on the table). If they remake SC, then that will be the 808.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 3:44 am

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 11):
Don't forget that WN can't keep operating their planes forever. They too will need to replace some older aircraft eventually and the new 737E would be a great aircraft to replace older 737s and allow for expansion.

I read that WN has actually approached Boeing about a 787-based 737 replacement. Ka-ching!  dollarsign 
 
N1120A
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 3:48 am

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
(There goes one of the main Airbus marketing tools, that the 32X and 330/340 have commonality).

Other than sidesticks and FBW, along with engines on the A342/3 and some A32S (just like the 737), they are not common from a crewing standpoint

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
737NGs/A32X that will be based on 787 technology and I'm assuming it will be part of the common 787 family

Because of the size difference, it will likely not have true commonality. Bleedless systems yes, but 30,000 pounds difference in thrust at least, difference engine size, different type certificates

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 5):
As far as United, Airbus
is a major major creditor to them right now. United announcing a huge order for new Boeings would not go over well with them.

And Boeing isn't?

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 7):
Why? Neither replaced their 737 or DC-9s with 737NGs or MD90s despite operating widebody fleets predominantly made by the corresponding manufacturer.

That is because neither plane at the time was there to do the replacing. As far as NW's DC-9s go, we know the answer to that

Quoting Glom (Reply 8):
I thought the A32S was selling better than the 737NG, hence Airbus have more to lose than Boeing.

Not at all

Quoting Rj111 (Reply 12):
For the record commonality between A320 and A330/A340 isn't really one of Airbus's main marketing tools. Commonality between the A330/A340 is.

And the A330/A340 still don't have anywhere near complete commonality, particularly engines and crew

Quoting Glom (Reply 13):
The 737NG is holding its own against the A32X and it is from an even older design.

It is out selling it in the time it has been out as well as being a much newer design on most fronts
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replaceme

Thu Apr 28, 2005 3:49 am

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
(There goes one of the main Airbus marketing tools, that the 32X and 330/340 have commonality).

Which took Boeing years to catch up!

When I visited Stork (the inventor of Glare) two weeks or so ago, they told us something about their work on the new A320. The A320NG-family won't be an updated version of the current one. We are talking a new fuselage, new wings, new avionics, new engines, new everything. Airbus will do a complete redesign and are already busy doing that. With Airbus keen to regain initiative expect the launch of this new plane, which probably won't be named A320 anymore, somewhat earlier than planned.

People here think that Airbus has been focused on the A380 only in the last few years, but that isn't true. There are many projects on table but aren't much talked about because they aren't as big as the A380 which draws a lot of attention.

Don't think Airbus will just sit quietly and watch Boeing win.

Cheers!
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
NYC777
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 4:17 am

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 14):
This would be the case for any aircraft manufacturer that produces a new product or introduces a product to their line. If Airbus simply getting your limelight for the time being because you are aware of it?

1) True it'll be same for any manufacturer but Airbus has a more difficult hill to over come (A380 cost including overruns) vs. the 787. I will even be bold to saythat the 787 will turn a profit long before the A380 does and that means that Boeing will have the necessary free cashflow to fund the R&D for whatever project they see is most urgent (next gen narrowbody)
2) No Airbus is not getting my limelight but this is a glaring difference why I tink Airbus had picked the wrong segment to invest in.

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 14):
Niether can any other company pay back anyone shareholders/investors until something is built and delivered, do not single out any company for your convenience.

Again Boeing is better positioned to finance and develop a next gen narrowbody better then Airbus because of the past business decisions. That's what I'm pointing out. If Airbus goes through and develops the A350 in its current form then they'll be wasting even more money that would have gone into a more worthwhile project.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
mrocktor
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 4:23 am

All the "Airbus will be years behind" folks have to do a reality check. Roughly one year ago Boeing was floundering, messing around with the Sonic Cruiser, losing important orders. People were saying they were years behind!

Look at Boeing now.

Airbus is not years behind, they may not even be behind at all in terms of technology (they are of course behind in terms of product in the 767-A330-787-A350 range).

mrocktor
 
N1120A
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 4:27 am

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 19):
Roughly one year ago Boeing was floundering, messing around with the Sonic Cruiser, losing important orders.

The Sonic Cruiser project is the reason we have the 787 now.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
ac7e7
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 4:38 am

If Airbus was smart right now, they would trash the A350 idea and start working on the A32XNG of aircraft. If Boeing was smart, they would trash their idea for the 747-ADV and start on the 737 replacement.

I'm sure AC will be looking at replacing their narrowbody fleet of aircraft next decade. Some of their A320s are approaching to 20 years old!
 
Rj111
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:47 am

And the A330/A340 still don't have anywhere near complete commonality, particularly engines and crew

According to AF its 90%, but the A340NG vs earlier models have less.
 
rjpieces
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 6:31 am

Quoting AC7E7 (Reply 21):
If Airbus was smart right now, they would trash the A350 idea and start working on the A32XNG of aircraft. If Boeing was smart, they would trash their idea for the 747-ADV and start on the 737 replacement.

Ehhhh, I can't say that I think Boeing and Airbus should go full speed ahead with a narrowbody replacement when the 737NG and A32X are still selling fairly well.

And why should Boeing trash the 747 Advanced when there is a definite market for it?
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
mrocktor
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 6:56 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 20):
he Sonic Cruiser project is the reason we have the 787 now.

I disagree. The Sonic Cruiser is the reason we didn't have the 787 earlier. Had Boeing set out to design a super efficient "conventional" airliner in the first place, they would likely be farther along now.

mrocktor
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 7:51 am

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 24):
Had Boeing set out to design a super efficient "conventional" airliner in the first place, they would likely be farther along now.

By what... 18 months? The SC was never launched and never entered the design and definition phase. It was a concept that stemmed from an RD project that Boeing marketed and hoped would be launched, but in the end, the continued maturation and evolution of that technology has cashed in big-time for Boeing.

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 19):
Airbus is not years behind, they may not even be behind at all in terms of technology (they are of course behind in terms of product in the 767-A330-787-A350 range).

The danger in viewing the 787 as just "a fuel efficent airplane" is it neglects the massive revoltuion within Boeing. This isn't the same company as 10 years ago. By one estimate, there are some $10 billion dollars and 6 years invested in Yellowstone on top of the $5 billion invested in the 787. That's almost an entire airplane worth of pure RD, and Boeing will ride that wave into the 737NG replacement and 777 replacement as well.

It is fair to say that Boeing has leapfroged Airbus in terms of the technology at their disposal.

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 17):
Don't think Airbus will just sit quietly and watch Boeing win.

Of course they won't, and neither did Boeing in the 1990s. The lesson of the 90s was that momentum is bitching hard to reverse. Airbus unleashed an entire portfolio of modern products in a very short span, which disrupted Boeing's product cycles. The 777 and 737NG were very successful programs, but it took Boeing over a decade to truely go on the offensive again.

Airbus will not simply "reverse" the momentum that Boeing is riding in a few short years. Using the 90s as a guide, Airbus isn't at the bottom of their trough yet, and Boeing isn't at their peak. It just shows the cyclic nature of this industry, at no point in the 90s was Boeing about to run out of opperaing cash... but Airbus 1990s-like glory days are coming to an end.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 8:03 am

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 24):
I disagree. The Sonic Cruiser is the reason we didn't have the 787 earlier. Had Boeing set out to design a super efficient "conventional" airliner in the first place, they would likely be farther along now.

Simply starting something sooner isn't a guarantee that you will have a suitably advanced product sooner. Somethings simply will take time to develop because they are dependent on factors beyond ones control. And also by starting sooner you may miss an opportunity to take advantage of new technologies. Boeing has likely gained technical knowledge from going through the effort of considering the development of the Sonic Cruiser, and that knowledge will be retained in the collective memory and experience of Boeing engineers.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
mrocktor
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 1:38 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 26):
Simply starting something sooner isn't a guarantee that you will have a suitably advanced product sooner. Somethings simply will take time to develop because they are dependent on factors beyond ones control. And also by starting sooner you may miss an opportunity to take advantage of new technologies. Boeing has likely gained technical knowledge from going through the effort of considering the development of the Sonic Cruiser, and that knowledge will be retained in the collective memory and experience of Boeing engineers.

I agree. Thats why I said "likely". There are several activities in aircraft design that can, however, be done simultaneously. I'm not saying that they would be finishing the 787 now - just that they would be further along.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 25):
By what... 18 months?

Hell no, say 6 months. That would be 6 months of A330 sales put in question, a 6 month sooner EIS for every member of the family (and they are dealing with pressure for the -8 and -9 EIS dates), 6 months less time for Airbus to react once they can freely reassign A380 resources.

18 months would be brutal.

mrocktor
 
ckfred
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:11 am

Airfrnt:

I could also see AA ordering a lot of 737Es. As it stands now, AA may replace some of the oldest MD-80s with 737-800s or possible -700s. But with over 300 MD-80s, AA is going to spread the retirement over many years. By the time Boeing gets the 737E ready to launch, AA could come in with a large order, spread over a span of 5 to 10 years.
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:42 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 25):
It just shows the cyclic nature of this industry, at no point in the 90s was Boeing about to run out of opperaing cash... but Airbus 1990s-like glory days are coming to an end.

True, I think there will be a more "stable" cycle of business. I also think that this is very healthy, because competition between Boeing and Airbus will give customers the best planes.

Cheers!
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MidnightMike
Posts: 2810
Joined: Thu Mar 06, 2003 10:07 am

RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:51 am

Quoting AC7E7 (Reply 21):
If Airbus was smart right now, they would trash the A350 idea and start working on the A32XNG of aircraft. If Boeing was smart, they would trash their idea for the 747-ADV and start on the 737 replacement.

The market is not ready for a 737NG/A320 replacement, still early for that. As for the 747Advanced, market could be ready in a couple of years.

There is still a healthy backlog for both the A320/737NG. Both comany's are going to have to develop an airplane that can compete against the RJ's, the 737-600 & A318's were just not the airplane that the airlines were looking at.

In about 10 years from now, some of the older RJ's will be up for replacement as well.
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Ken777
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Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 4:05 am

The first issue for Boeing is who will be the new CEO? (Hopefully the 747ADV program will be approved before naming one - just in case they get a timid number cruncher.)

I believe that Boeing must first move with the 747ADV to take care of some rather important customers. They pretty well know what they are going to do with it and I doubt if the program will take a huge amount of money.

As for the 737E, Boeing is learning some important lessons rather quickly. When it is announced the artist's rendition will not have a shark tail, that's for sure. The results of the 787 wind tunnel testing have probably been absorbed by the engineers working on a 737E.

So where is Boeing now? I believe there are some serious back room discussions going on. First with the engine makers - moving bleedless design down to the 737 size. Quiet talks with other suppliers, especially those dealing with the composites to see how their timing would be.

For sure WN has had a few chats over drinks (and peanuts) and AA would be in some discussions about long term planning. Maybe one or two others under NDAs.

So I believe Boeing is positioned to move very quickly on a 737E - and I believe that they will have some nice orders from day one. I also believe, if they do move fast, that they will transfer some of the current 737NG orders to a 737E.

If my feeble brain can think of these situations, however, you can be sure that Airbus is way ahead of me - and they are working just as hard as Boeing on their NG32X. The 380 did consume a lot of engineering resources, but Airbus would still have teams working on future projects, especially in the area of incorporating Glare into their entire line. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Airbus announce their NG32X before Boeing announces their 737E.

It's going to be a battle that is fun to watch - unless you work at either A or B.
 
mrocktor
Posts: 1391
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:57 am

RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 4:22 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 31):
It's going to be a battle that is fun to watch - unless you work at either A or B.

Or E?  Wink
 
rsmith6621a
Posts: 1507
Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:21 pm

RE: Boeing In A Position To Capture A32X Replacement?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 4:24 am

Maybe this replacement will feature a Rabbits tail to rival the 787s dismissed Sharkstail.....
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