Rj111
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The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 9:24 pm

When i look at the A380-800 i see a short (relatively), stubby, plane with an enourmous wingspan, a lot similar to a 736 or an A318.


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Now we all know that the A318/736 are heavy for their size, and many airlines have simply opted for the A319/73G or RJ's, i believe because they (A319/73G) offer more revenue potential with only slightly higher operating costs.

I was wondering if a similar thing could be said for the A388 vs A389 if/when it becomes reality. The A388 was desinged with a stretch in mind, so if a -900 where released, the OEW may not be that significant. Yet the increase in avaliable revenue potential through seats and cargo space could be very high.

The difference however is that there are plenty of routes that could fill an A319/73G, yet i doubt there are many routes which could fill an A389. Could a reduction in ticket prices attract, allowed through lower CASM, attract more customers onto a route and ultimately make it more profitable though?

Also, does anyone have any outlined specifications for an A380-900?
 
keesje
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 9:34 pm

http://www.whel.de/Aerospace/widebody_jets_specs.html

should have lower seat mile costs

Carriers that put ~500 seats in a380-800 now (and many do) could put ~620 in a A389.
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BlueSky1976
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:11 pm

I seriously doubt A380-900 will ever fly... I could see a few hundred 550-seaters out there, but a 620 seater? hmmmmmm....
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cedarjet
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:22 pm

Sure it'll happen. The more seats they can put in, the lower the seat-mile costs. I really think the future does not favour Boeing's model of high frequency; sooner or later (sooner, I'm guessing), jet fuel will simply become too expensive to make it possible to give people a choice of flight times. City pairs like London to Toronto will become a single A380 instead of two or three 767s or 777s. It makes little difference to the consumer really.
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ORDagent
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:27 pm

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 3):
City pairs like London to Toronto will become a single A380 instead of two or three 767s or 777s. It makes little difference to the consumer really.

This is only partially true. I totally agree with the fuel issues. However my business clients often tend to book on carriers with more service in the market they are flying into in order to have more flexibility which business travel often demands.
 
VirginFSM
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:28 pm

I think the -900 will definately happen. The -800 seems designed almost as a "shrink" of the -900 dont you think by looking at it?

I have also seen stuff in the VS offices talking about door numbering...........on the main deck its 1,2,3,4,5 BUT UPSTAIRS its 2,3,4! When I asked why this was I was told that it was so the rearmost upper deck doors will ALWAYS be "4" when the -900 is built.

Perhaps someone at Airbus can confirm (or Poo-poo) this?

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A350
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:37 pm

In the year 2000 briefing they told that the stretch will have another advantage of 9% over the baseline version in fuel burn/seat. Since MX costs will be approx. equal at both versions, we'll see another efficiency jump with the A389.

Once an airline operates an A389 and succeeds to fill it (maybe EK), it will become very tough to compete with this airline using smaller birds.

Just my  twocents 

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sebolino
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:40 pm

I fully agree with Cedarjet, and as he says, the customers will perhaps not have too many choices in the future. The pression on the ticket price because of the fuel will be so high that there will be perhaps no other choice than big planes to make the maximum profit where it can be done.
 
brightcedars
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:44 pm

I think the A380-900 will bring even more economies of scale than the A380-800 will already do. The A380 is not only meant to provide a competitor to the Boeing 747 nearly 40 years after its drawing started. The A380 is there to provide the world's largest carriers and alliances with a comfortable people moving solution to hub and spoke passengers between Intercontinental hubs. When there are already 3 or more 747-400 services per day between two cities over 12 hours and 6 time zones away, adding frequency doesn't really make sense anymore.

The A380-800/900 will not contribute to bring prices down that much. But at least they can remain steady (and go down against inflation) and the airlines can survive.

Definitely the A380 is built with stretch in mind, not shrink. Fitting 600 pax isn't that scary, is it? Ok, now what if Southwest or Ryanair go transatlantic with the A380-900 and put 1,000+ onboard...  Wink
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MD95
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 10:55 pm

It's true that the A380 will introduce economic benefits by reducing flights to city pair, but this require that the airlines joint together to operate it. Do you think this will happen among airline not in the same alliance? Or we will see multiple A380 flying half full. If the airlines will be able to operate jointly, what will happen to competition? For sure the cost of the ticket will not go down.  dollarsign 
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trent900
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:13 pm

Quoting BrightCedars (Reply 8):
Ryanair go transatlantic with the A380-900 and put 1,000+ onboard...

A few work collegues and me where talking about this a few weeks ago. We worked out they could operate 1 service a day STN - DUB with a A380-900 carrying 1,000 pax. Just imagine that  faint 

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keesje
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:21 pm

Forecasts of Boeing and Airbus are air travel will tripple in the next 20 yrs.

Newyork - London now: 20 daily, then 30 daily?
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leelaw
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Thu Apr 28, 2005 11:48 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Forecasts of Boeing and Airbus are air travel will tripple in the next 20 yrs.

Nobody ever went broke discounting long-term traffic projections.
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VirginFSM
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 12:13 am

Quoting Trent900 (Reply 10):
A few work collegues and me where talking about this a few weeks ago. We worked out they could operate 1 service a day STN - DUB with a A380-900 carrying 1,000 pax. Just imagine that

Emirates must have close to 1000 pax if they are going for 11 abreast on the main deck!  Wink
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Rj111
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RE: The Economics Of An A380-900?

Fri Apr 29, 2005 2:46 am

Any idea on the Cargo capacity? The A388's is quite modest at 38 LD-3's considering all the bags it'll have to carry.

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