iwok
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Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 8:24 am

The current competition between Boeing and Airbus is starting to get a little stale. Everyday on a.net there are several A vs. B threads and we all get emotional about one manufacturer or the other. Its kind of like living in a small town with only two baseball teams.

Seeing that business seems to be picking up a bit, there might be space for another competitor.

I really wish that Lockeed would get back in the game. Maybe we could get some sort of consortium with Lockeed, Dornier and Hyundai? What about Embraer?

My questions are:

1) who do you think will step to the plate and manufacture/market a new intercontinental aircraft?

2) what sort of aircraft would it be? (twin, three-holer, 300 seats etc.)

3) who would you wish to see do this?

Your comments would be most appreciated.

Cheers

iwok
 
AA737-823
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 9:12 am

I think the current large aircraft market is saturated. The market cannot support more than two established manufacturers. See DC-10 versus L-1011. Both good airplanes, but had questionable results for their manufacturers. The large aircraft market will always be smaller than the medium-sized market. Hence Boeing has sold over 5000 737s and Airbus has sold a buncha A320s, while far fewer widebodies have been ordered.
Couple all that with the fact that the world is involved in producing parts for the 787 (Japanese) and A380 (various others), and I think that there won't be any big changes in the large aircraft lineup for a few decades.

ON THE OTHER HAND... I think that someone will come up with a new narrowbody soon. Airbus and Boeing are both mumbling something about composite replacements for both of their best sellers. But I think the big surprise will come from Japan. Japan is now officially looking into building airplanes. And I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they come up with a 100-seater that blows Embraer and Canadair out of the water. Then, they'll stretch it to compete with Boeing and Airbus.

There is an article on Japanese 787 production efforts posted on this forum. Read it, it's informative.

Have a good week.
R
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 8:51 pm

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
1) who do you think will step to the plate and manufacture/market a new intercontinental aircraft?

Hmm, well IMO Embraer and Bombardier are quite big now. Bot seem to be planning quite big planes so I see one of these as the next inter-continental.

However they are BIG manufacturers. I see Honda maybe stepping up, or even eclipse if they start selling their planes and get the capital to break through to something bigger.

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
2) what sort of aircraft would it be? (twin, three-holer, 300 seats etc.)

Definitely a twin! Probably a narrow-body, say between 150-200 pax.

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
3) who would you wish to see do this?

Don't really mind!
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
mrniji
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 8:59 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
The market cannot support more than two established manufacturers.

I disagree.. the current blackmailing between B and A (see Ai deal) raises concerns in me. Maybe their ambitions to oust the progress of either side can be slowed down a little with a 3rd manufacturer

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
What about Embraer?

My hope in this regard is that the "Third Block" (Let's say Brazil, India, China, South Africa) find a good solution. Embraer could alliance with Hindustan Aeronautics for instance... It would be great to have a third manufacturer out of these countries.. know-how is available - some consortuim like Airbus, made of four countries

[Edited 2005-05-02 13:59:59]
"The earth provides enough resources for everyone's need, but not for some people's greed." (Gandhi)
 
JDD1
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 9:21 pm

Brazil, Canada, China, India, Japan, Russia, - Europe, USA. In the next 25 years there will be eight possible sources of large civil a/c.

I believe there will certainly be eight manufacturing centres but perhaps three or four competing products. So the cooperation already under way will increase.

How about:
USA-Japan (already in place, but who will be the leader in 25 yrs?)
Europe-China (cooperation already starting) + perhaps Canada
Brazil-India-Russia
or
Canada-Russia

It is unthinkable that countries the size of China and India will not have their own industries.
Japan has already stated its interest and is puting its money where its mouth is.
The Russian industry will come back and is being helped by Europe and the USA.
Brazil and Canada are already increasing the sizes of their products.
The next 25 years will be VERY interesting.
 
kl911
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 9:33 pm

Don't forget REKKOF, they will rule the world after they sold 1500 F-70NG's and F-100NG's. Look out for plans for a F-800.  Silly

KL911
 
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PM
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 9:36 pm

The cost of entering this business is surely prohibitive. It's not just a question of designing and building the damn things, you also have to establish an after-sales network and so on. Plus, as an 'unknown', you'd need to offer a truly amazing aeroplane and/or irresistably low prices to convince airlines to take the risk.

If it costs Boeing or Airbus billions to launch a new product with everything they already have in place, how much more would it cost a new entrant? So, even if, say, Toyota decided to, er, diversify (!) even they would find it back-breakingly expensive.

That leaves (1) existing aerospace companies not currently building airliners, (2) smaller niche players who might move upmarket, and (3) national or multi-national consortia who'd be assisted by their governments. (Where have I heard that before...?)

(1) Most aerospace companies have been getting out of the business of building airliners. BAE Systems (apart for their stake in Airbus) and Lockheed come to mind. Could they return? Of course they could but they won't - at least not on their own. Apart from anything, they couldn't prosper with just one model. (Remember the lonely TriStar? Remember McD's dwindling product line at the end?) To compete effectively with Airbus and Boeing they'd need to be in all or most of the market segments from 100 to 350 seats. If building one model costs a large fortune, what price two or three?

(2) Embraer et al may continue to build ever bigger and better planes but it will take them decades to be able to rival Boeing and Airbus. We shouldn't assume it could never happen but it won't happen any time soon.

(3) If China or perhaps Japan decided to make such a thing a national priority they could probably build a large airliner. In China it may have a captive market. How attractive such a plane would be on the open market, however, is a moot point.

The dark horse in all of this is Russia. Tupolev, Antonov and Illushin are already building 'heavies' and have been doing so for years. They don't sell (much) outside the former Soviet Union but there is the potential there if someone has the ambition - and the money.

But can the market sustain more than two major players? I doubt it. So if there is to be another 'giant' in 20 or 30 years time it will presumably be at the expense of one (or both?) of our beloved A&B...

And there's something else to speculate about!
 
BG777300ER
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 9:42 pm

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
1) who do you think will step to the plate and manufacture/market a new intercontinental aircraft?

Aerospatiale

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
2) what sort of aircraft would it be? (twin, three-holer, 300 seats etc.)

Supersonic - Concorde2

Just a joke guys......no need to argue about this.
Koi mi sra v gashtite?
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 9:45 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
The market cannot support more than two established manufacturers

While this may well be true, remember that back in the day, no one thought that Boeing and MD could be challenged. And look at Airbus now. Remember Airbus came out of more or less nowhere and 30 odd years later they are the market leader in many ways. Always watch out for the hungry newcomer.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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PM
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 9:57 pm

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 8):
Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
The market cannot support more than two established manufacturers

While this may well be true, remember that back in the day, no one thought that Boeing and MD could be challenged. And look at Airbus now.

Doesn't that prove the point? Airbus rose, arguably, at the expense of McD. Two major players turn into two (different) major players.
 
JAM747
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Mon May 02, 2005 11:45 pm

I think one of the smaller jet manufacturers might grow in the years to come and enter the bigger a/c market. However certain factors would have to be considered. It could be more profitable to stay within their niche for now because it costs a lot to venture into large a/c. It might also be harder to spread the economies of scale in terms of technology unless there was a range of a/c in a certain size, for example A and B can easier spread costs,techniques on different versions of large a/c at less unit cost because they have a large range of large aircrafts. Similarly smaller a/c manufactures do the same with their range of small a/c. On the other hand China and India are growing markets and Embraer for example who I think already builds planes there might be encouraged to build larger planes for that market. They might be guaranteed a market if they merge with a Chinese manufacturer or have a entity that is 50% owned by the Chinese. Some auto manufacturers were only able to sell or grow in China through a similar deal. There is also the possibility of the ex-Soviet A/c builder merging with a western manufacturer and growing in the commercial a/c business. There are alot of expertise there in large a/c design.With fuel prices being a big factor with a/c purchases maybe in 10 to 20yrs someone will offer an alternative or some innovation which shifts the table in their direction. If one of the big players now A or B makes a wrong market decision or have some quality issues with one or more of their a/c it might push them back and make way for another manufacturer or consortium to enter the large plane field. There are many possibilities we will just have to wait and see.
 
GoogleBoy
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 12:01 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
think the current large aircraft market is saturated. The market cannot support more than two established manufacturers.

I think you are quite right and to the point. The next large aircraft manufacturer will be the one who takes time to look at the value chain of aircraft sales and attempt to remove value that costs too much and adds value that is not available to the consumer. If you are interested please read: Blue Ocean Strategy at http://harvardbusinessonline.hbsp.ha.../common/item_detail.jhtml?id=6190.

My guess is that the most important new value to be brought in the market is large aircraft certificated with new engine that use alternate propulsion techniques and offer an alternative to the yet to be unaffordable JP fuels.

With the upcoming World Oil Production Peak to come, it will become imperative to design engines that run on something else that oil. Just like Toyata decided 15 years ago to design vehicles with a hybrid engine. It's about time and the manufacturer that understand that first and invest first will likely get the first 'blue ocean' advantage. It could be a new comer (likely) since it would not be constrained within the rules of a large coporate culture that is slow to move on.

Cheers mate.
Act now with insight, never be sorry tomorrow!
 
Glom
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 12:08 am

Large aircraft manufacturer? Is that a large manufacturer of aircraft of various sizes or a modest sized manufacturer of large aircraft?
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 12:10 am

Quoting PM (Reply 9):
Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 8):
Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
The market cannot support more than two established manufacturers

While this may well be true, remember that back in the day, no one thought that Boeing and MD could be challenged. And look at Airbus now.

Doesn't that prove the point? Airbus rose, arguably, at the expense of McD. Two major players turn into two (different) major players.

You're right. I was unclear. I do think there is only currently room for two. I just wanted to point out the identities of the two are by no means a given.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
flygaz
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 12:21 am

I think Embraer will surprise us all. With the sucess of the EMB-170 family, maybe they will look at competing with the A320 family and the B737NG. Maybe they will be the ones to dominate the single aisle family rather than the A32X and the B737E, after all Boeing and Airbus seem to be worrying about replacing the 767/A330.
 
FlyinHigh
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 5:36 am

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
But I think the big surprise will come from Japan. Japan is now officially looking into building airplanes.

If Japan actually produces a viable civil aircraft and does what it did to the auto industry, Boeing and Airbus have tough times ahead. However, I think China is the country to reckon with.
Flown on A300,320,321,330, B717,727,737,747,757,767,777, BAC 1-11, BAE 146, D228, HS-121, L1011, MD 80, S360
 
iwok
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 4:57 pm

All,

thanks for your responses. I am pretty sure that something will be coming out of the Asian Tiger; India, China, Japan, Korea etc. I am also pretty sure that if one or more of these countries makes a move then Lockheed would certainly want to get back in the game. Also, seeing how strategic relations are growing between Brazil and China, one could definately see some joint venture forming between the two.

iwok
 
mrniji
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 7:18 pm

Quoting Iwok (Reply 16):
am pretty sure that something will be coming out of the Asian Tiger; India, China, Japan, Korea etc.

I second your opinion.. I am quite sure that, in accordnce with the infant industry agreement, there will be a lot of protection soon (here NOT in the form of tariffs but subsidies) - I already see the discussions about inproper subsidies coming, although the IIA can easily be suited in the neo-liberal framework we are living in  Wink
"The earth provides enough resources for everyone's need, but not for some people's greed." (Gandhi)
 
lekohawk
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 7:26 pm

I think Cessna should get into the game and Dornier and Embraer too... just so we can have A v. B v. C v. D v E wars. *smirk*
If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
 
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PM
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 7:38 pm

Quoting Lekohawk (Reply 18):
I think Cessna should get into the game and Dornier and Embraer too... just so we can have A v. B v. C v. D v E wars. *smirk*

... and Fokker, Grumman, Heinkel, Illushin, Junkers ...
 
Jet-lagged
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 7:51 pm

Quoting Iwok (Reply 16):
Also, seeing how strategic relations are growing between Brazil and China, one could definately see some joint venture forming between the two.

I agree with you:
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/1791667

But right now I'm putting my money for the power partner on the China side. In fact, since that thread, we've seen 'China' buy IBM's PCs, intellectual capital of Rover, almost buy into the Korean car market, and test some increasingly big plays in oil. Increased ability to make aircraft gives them more ability to invade Taiwan. And they've put a man in space. I don't think commercial aircraft manufacture or assembly will never be tried.
 
cloudboy
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Tue May 03, 2005 9:53 pm

I see the single-aisle market growing with Embraer being the main competitor, with Dornier (in whatever guise they end up in) and Bombardier following along. I think that the line between the RJs and the 737 is going to fade away.

As for wide-bodies, I don't see much growth in that. Eventually I see Embraer making an attempt, but not for some time. I DO see Tupolev possibly getting involved, primarily by teaming up with the Chinese. While I would not expect them to make any real inroads inthe US market, I could see them eventually making sales to the asian, Middle East, and some Eurpoean airlines. If they can get their engineering up to par.
"Six becoming three doesn't create more Americans that want to fly." -Adam Pilarski
 
ComeAndGo
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Wed May 04, 2005 11:38 am

Honda is an engine company. They build cars & bikes to sell engines. Honda has to get off the ground first. Honda could be a player in 15 to 20 years.

I think that if you want to see tomorrow's leaders you have to look at who is in the game today. Embraer is supported by the Brasilian government. They have a chance. They are introducing a line of small 100+ seat planes that start competing with A & B. Question is what are they going to do next. In my bett is either on Embraer or Canadair. Bombardier is a company of excellence. Every product they make it is a quality product, whether it's snowmobiles, business jets, water-bombers, atv's, bullet trains, trolleys, commuter- trains, you name it.

A & B might get so into fighting each other that they totally miss Embraer and Canadair.
 
hmmmm...
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Wed May 04, 2005 12:10 pm

Financially, getting into the large commercial aircraft racket is almost impossible. Nor is it known as a good money maker. To make money, it's better to buy junk bonds than make jumbo jets. Indeed, you can make more money washing windows or other menial tasks. In fact, 25 years ago, Lockheed was sent packing, having lost a bundle on every airliner they sold. All 250.

I grew up as a kid during the short time the L-1011 program was in operation. During that time I wasn't working. I was just an adolescent. However, I shoveled a driveway one winter in 1975 and profited 50 cents for my efforts. As amazing as it sounds, I earned more money clearing that one driveway than Lockheed profited in ten years building and selling their widebodied airliner.

The commercial airliner business is a vainglorious one. It's about national pride, politics, and prestige. And that requires deep pockets. The only country that has both the deep pockets and the lust for new prestige is China. As a business venture, the airliner business is a non-starter. But for national pride, it is one of the great symbols. China's star is in ascension and it is looking for symbols like that. And I think it will strive to achieve them, no matter what the cost to the nation.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
 
FLY2LIM
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Wed May 04, 2005 12:17 pm

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
Its kind of like living in a small town with only two baseball teams.

Sorry, I didn't like the analogy, especially since most small towns have no baseball teams. Even if you compare the baseball rivalry between Boston and New York, it doesn't create as much passion as A vs B on A.net, he he he. For the Europeans, it would compare to Real Madrid vs. Barcelona, for example. Still, I think the A vs. B rivalry tops all others, he he he.
Just having fun.
FLY2LIM
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mrniji
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Sun May 15, 2005 1:32 pm

I read an interesting article and thought I provide you with a link, as it suits the topic of the thread:


http://www.business-standard.com/com...lselect=1&chklogin=N&autono=188843

India, Brazil, SA forum considers aircraft production

India, Brazil and South Africa under the tri-lateral IBSA (India-Brazil-South Africa) Dialogue Forum, are looking at producing aircraft by pooling one another's expertise.

IBSA is exploring how it can pool its resources and technology to produce aircraft for civil aviation, said Anil Sooklal, deputy director general Asia & the Middle East, Department Foreign Affairs.

India became yet another battleground for global aviation majors Boeing and Airbus this month after the former bagged a Rs 30,000 crore order from Air-India for 50 aircraft.


Rest of the article at the link

Article basically says that Large a/c monopoly belongs to B and A, but that smaller a/c manufacturing would be possible


Well, you always need to start small to be a big player - maybe we will have a third big manufacturer in the future - would be great! Some (infant industry) potection in the beginning would be good, so that this project can be flagged off
"The earth provides enough resources for everyone's need, but not for some people's greed." (Gandhi)
 
allstarflyer
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Sun May 15, 2005 1:43 pm

Embraer. Probably more so than Bombardier, but that's from someone who has watched the CRJ-200's of UX fall aside to the ERJ-170's (thought the CRJ's are still flying - the ERJ upgrade is still better). And, from what I could tell, not many of the CRJ-700's were muscling into UX. But this is all just a limited view - as far as the big picture, I'll just go with Embraer just for a shoot-from-the-hip prediction.

-R
Living the American Dream
 
Areopagus
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Sun May 15, 2005 5:46 pm

Aircraft manufacturing is indeed a "sporty game", but MD and Lockheed's exit, leaving only Airbus and Boeing, does not prove that the market is only big enough for two. Lockheed was put in a hole by the late delivery of the RB-211. If the plane had been designed from the outset for two engines, Lockheed might still be in the game. That financial hole prevented them from producing a long-range TriStar early enough to make a go of it. They guessed wrong and built the turboprop Electra instead of a pure jet - and then the Electra had, shall we say, structural problems. Guessing wrong put several early airliner manufacturers out of the business.

MD committed suicide. After the DC-10 go-ahead that predated the merger, the McDonnells never permitted an all-new airliner design to be offered. They shut down the DC-8 line. They cancelled the ASMR while smugly expecting Boeing to fail with its risky 757. They stopped the MD-12. So what did they expect?

I expect Embraer to build up-market eventually. Mrniji's post is interesting in that regard.

Aircraft engines seem to be boiling down to two contestants, with P&W being pushed aside in spite of the work they have been putting in to keep up.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Who Will Be The Next Large Aircraft Manufacturer

Sun May 15, 2005 7:30 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1):
Japan is now officially looking into building airplanes. And I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they come up with a 100-seater that blows Embraer and Canadair out of the water. Then, they'll stretch it to compete with Boeing and Airbus.

I don't think they will have the home market for narrow bodies to make it viable like they have in other industries. And given that two thirds of the regional jets ordered from Bombadier and Embraer are going/went to the US, and the state of the US airline market, I really wonder whether there is room for another regional jet maker.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!