dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 2:34 pm

It's only my second post, but to awaken all you slumbering aviation aficionados, I propose the following scenario:

1. Who will be the first A380 customer to cancel their order?

2. When will Airbus admit that they have offered no-penalty cancellations within 12 months of delivery?

3. Who will be the first A380 customer to purchase a unit at higher than the cost of production (approximately $200 million)?

So, get up and get typing!
 
Leskova
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 3:08 pm

For only your second post here, you're really starting out in the worst possible way...

1) Why should any airline cancel? Aside from some people's moronic wishes that the project, and Airbus along with it, fail?
2) If you could, and I sincerely doubt you can, offer even the slightest bit of proof to that ridiculous statement (aside from "I heard that somewhere")... then, maybe - just maybe, someone might actually take the time to reply to it...
3)  rotfl   rotfl   rotfl  Are you participating in the competition to be anti-Airbus-cheerleader of the month???

Sorry, but if you want to be taken seriously, you'd better come up with questions that are worth answering.

Regards,
Frank
Smile - it confuses people!
 
monteycarlos
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 3:20 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
1. Who will be the first A380 customer to cancel their order?

Probably the first US Airline that thinks they can operate this plane.

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
2. When will Airbus admit that they have offered no-penalty cancellations within 12 months of delivery?

Probably when you admit that posting this was a bad idea!

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
3. Who will be the first A380 customer to purchase a unit at higher than the cost of production (approximately $200 million)?

How do you know any of them haven't? Do you have an in-depth knowledge of each of the airlines fiancial deals?
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
bill142
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 3:31 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
3. Who will be the first A380 customer to purchase a unit at higher than the cost of production (approximately $200 million)?

I would bet that only SQ, QF and EK are paying ridiculosly cheap prices as these were the first three airlines to order
 
NAV20
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 3:43 pm

No layman, working on press reports, could answer your questions in respect of the A380, Dhefty.

Nor answer the same questions in connection with any other manufacturer or aircraft.

Looking forward to your third post - which will hopefully contain some evidence. Otherwise, there's no future in kicking all your possible scenarios around.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 3:44 pm

Well, if I'm starting out in the worst possible way, then I can only improve or stay the same.

I think I'll choose the latter.

1. As far as why any airline might cancel, well, I suppose there might be many reasons, logical and illogical, but I don't really care about their reasons. I just want to know who the first might be. Concorde, 747, 1011, etc., all had their rejection slips. Who will be the first for the A380?

2. According to the Gellman, Weber, Hamlin and Aboulafia report, www.speednews.com/A380-CPA.pdf, unusual terms of cancellation have been offered to prospective buyers. Perhaps one or more of them may exercise such an option if deteriorating conditions subsequent to purchase occur.

3. Well, perhaps commercial aircraft manufacturing is a "Sporting Game", but I'm not sure cheerleaders are required. However, if you insist, I am happy to volunteer. (Pay no attention to the hairy legs.)

Me, taken seriously? More or less, kova?
 
lehpron
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 3:55 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
1. Who will be the first A380 customer to cancel their order?

Look first to whomever postpones their delivery date then those who simply have not purchased yet.

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
3. Who will be the first A380 customer to purchase a unit at higher than the cost of production (approximately $200 million)?

More like when, I think it is difficult to tell who, probably after these initial orders get rolled out, I donno. Try circa 2017.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
NAV20
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 4:00 pm

Thanks for the link, DHefty! I'd very much like to read the Gellman Report, if that is what it contains - especially about the cancellation clauses, which is a new point. All I've seen so far are the press reports.

Trouble is, though, the link doesn't work   Can you please check it, and re-post it if possible?

[Edited 2005-05-02 09:09:53]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 4:07 pm

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 3):
I would bet that only SQ, QF and EK are paying ridiculosly cheap prices as these were the first three airlines to order

Many insiders might take that bet. There are sheep to be shorn.

According to Gellman, et al (cited above), there are now over 110 A380's sold below cost, and very few new buyers willing to pay more than the launch customers paid.
 
AeroWesty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 4:13 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Trouble is, though, the link doesn't work

The hyperlink contained an extraneous comma at the end. This should work:

http://www.speednews.com/A380-CPA.pdf
International Homo of Mystery
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 4:16 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
Trouble is, though, the link doesn't work Can you please check it, and re-post it if possible?

Try http://www.speednews.com/A380-CPA.pdf
 
NAV20
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 4:22 pm

Thanks guys, looks like it's working now, I'll get back to you!  Smile

Welcome to A.net, DHefty. Though you may find that asking awkward questions about Airbus can be dangerous to your health! The old basic military advice tends to apply - "Whatever else yer does, keep yer bloody 'ead down......"
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 4:45 pm

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 6):
Look first to whomever postpones their delivery date then those who simply have not purchased yet.

Are you suggesting that Sir Richard, virgin though he's not, will be the first to cancel?
 
Udo
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 4:55 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
1. Who will be the first A380 customer to cancel their order?

Togo Airlines, after they decided to purchase a Dragon Wings model via ILFC.  liar 

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
2. When will Airbus admit that they have offered no-penalty cancellations within 12 months of delivery?

In 2067 maybe?  idea 

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
3. Who will be the first A380 customer to purchase a unit at higher than the cost of production (approximately $200 million)?

The French government?  scratchchin 

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 5):
1. As far as why any airline might cancel, well, I suppose there might be many reasons, logical and illogical, but I don't really care about their reasons. I just want to know who the first might be. Concorde, 747, 1011, etc., all had their rejection slips. Who will be the first for the A380?

Try to call Nostradamus' office... sarcastic 

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 8):
According to Gellman, et al (cited above), there are now over 110 A380's sold below cost, and very few new buyers willing to pay more than the launch customers paid.

Then the end is near and Airbus will finally follow MDD, Dornier and Fokker...  crying 


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 5:12 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 11):
Welcome to A.net, DHefty. Though you may find that asking awkward questions about Airbus can be dangerous to your health

Yes, and it can be dangerous to a nation's health to risk $16 billion on a dicey project. Last year the world's automobile manufacturers produced over 65 million cars, but less than a thousand commercial airliners were made. It's a long cycle, high risk business, something that probably few politicians realize. If EADS/Airbus bets wrongly, it could impact the future of the EU itself. The "National Champion" strategy as stated by many EU advocates hasn't really been examined. If they (EU enthusiasts) don't ask the awkward questions, then its their health, not mine, that may suffer.
 
Udo
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 5:19 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 14):
If EADS/Airbus bets wrongly, it could impact the future of the EU itself.

Yeah, we're on a highway to hell...  crazy 

The A380 subsidies are an investment into the future. The project has created and secured dozens of thousands of new jobs in hightech industries, at Airbus and at suppliers all over Europe. The R&D invested into the A380 by Airbus and their suppliers will help to create many new projects in aviation and other sectors.
It's better to invest some billions into future technologie than wasting billions for coal subsidies or for starting and paying senseless wars.


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
backfire
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 5:23 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
Are you suggesting that Sir Richard, virgin though he's not, will be the first to cancel?

There's been plenty of talk and speculation and conjecture that Virgin will cancel its A380s. As yet it hasn't and I've no evidence that it would. Although if there is such thing as a no-penalty cancellation, then I can well imagine Branson ordering the A380 for publicity purposes then dropping out of it later.
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 5:27 pm

Quoting Udo (Reply 13):
Then the end is near and Airbus will finally follow MDD, Dornier and Fokker...

Udo, I have followed your posts for some time, but maybe tonight you're a little disjointed. Too many schnapps?

I don't have any idea who the first to cancel might be, I just want to check back in a couple of years and find out who was correct in predicting it. Since you have so many posts, I would expect you to have an expert opinion.

Actually, I called Nostrodamus in January. He assured me that the A380 would fly in March and that Air Canada, Air India and Air France would renew their fleets with Toulisian glee.
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 5:45 pm

Quoting Udo (Reply 15):
Yeah, we're on a highway to hell...

But still, it's a long way to go, if you want to rock and roll.

Has the A380 investment done anything more than raise unrealistic
expectations on the part of the EU advocates? Blair, Chirac et al, made themselves very visible at the "Reveal". When was the last time an American president appeared at the unveiling of a Boeing jetliner? It (the reveal) gives the impression of desperation. Better to have small projects fail and be under the radar for a politician.

Wars are not really the subject, but if my father's generation could have stopped Hitler early on, would the world have been a better place?
 
Udo
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 5:47 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 17):
Udo, I have followed your posts for some time, but maybe tonight you're a little disjointed. Too many schnapps?

Probably it's the heat over here, makes me sensible to..."what if" & "who will"-questions about the A380...  Wink

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 17):
I don't have any idea who the first to cancel might be, I just want to check back in a couple of years and find out who was correct in predicting it. Since you have so many posts, I would expect you to have an expert opinion.

It's just impossible to make a reliable guess. Making a guess is like gambling, totally up to luck. All airlines with A380s on order are stabile and have the busy routes to deploy it.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 17):
Actually, I called Nostrodamus in January. He assured me that the A380 would fly in March and that Air Canada, Air India and Air France would renew their fleets with Toulisian glee.

Wow, seems he was wrong...  Wink


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
Udo
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 5:56 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 18):
Has the A380 investment done anything more than raise unrealistic
expectations on the part of the EU advocates?

Yes, it has. Thousands of jobs have already been created and secured. Many suppliers, even small companies, are enthusiastic about their future. As I explained earlier, all the development and research will also be used for other projects, even apart from aviation. Synergies is the magic word.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 18):
Blair, Chirac et al, made themselves very visible at the "Reveal". When was the last time an American president appeared at the unveiling of a Boeing jetliner? It (the reveal) gives the impression of desperation. Better to have small projects fail and be under the radar for a politician.

It's not uncommon in Europe that politicians show up when industrial projects are unveiled or started. Desperation? Definitely not the case - it was more like the opposite.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 18):
Wars are not really the subject, but if my father's generation could have stopped Hitler early on, would the world have been a better place?

I talked about senseless wars. America's entry into WWII was necessary - a totally different case than what I meant.


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
User avatar
mariner
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 5:56 pm

I have been involved in civil aviation since the day of my birth - literally.

I was born at an Imperial Airways flying boat station. During his career, my father was Chief Engineer for two airlines.

Before I was thirteen, I had flown by myself all over Africa and the Middle East. I got to fly on the Comet 1.

In those travels, I, as a boy, depended on the kindness of aviation people, and that kindess was unfailing. As was the sense of family among all airline people.

When the two Comets crashed, none of the Pan Am or TWA station staff at Cairo or Beirut were dancing in the streets.

But I get the feeling that if the A380 had crashed on its first flight, half the posters on this website would be cheering.

I am now 64 and I have never encountered so many people so desperate for an aircraft to fail.

I find it rather sickening.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:02 pm

Quoting Udo (Reply 15):
The R&D invested into the A380 by Airbus and their suppliers will help to create many new projects in aviation and other sectors.


If the A380 project and its investment should not recoup its costs, then there is the possibility that European voters would become disillusioned about investing in aviation, and that would be a tragedy for Europe and for the US, too.
 
Nomad
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:09 pm

I heard only yesterday from an employee of VS that they are looking at reducing there order from 6 aircraft with 6 options to 3 with 3 options. So maybe VS will be the first ?
Nomad  Cool
 
QANTASforever
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:12 pm

Mariner,

You are a bloody fantastic fellow. I could not agree more with everything you have said.

If ever there was some way I could have a "REALLY respected user" list - you would be on it.

If people here support aviation, then surely they must support the A380.
God knows people support and love aircraft that aren't always the prettiest or the biggest financial successes. Not to say Airbus is or is not either of those things - but it is a significant extension to our hobby, and we should be relishing this time in aviation history.

QFF
Fighting for the glory of the Australian Republic.
 
Udo
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:14 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 22):

If the A380 project and its investment should not recoup its costs, then there is the possibility that European voters would become disillusioned about investing in aviation, and that would be a tragedy for Europe and for the US, too.

Unfortunately, in today's politics voters cannot follow the way of taxmoney anymore. So if the billions for the A380 were invested in farm subsidies or just sunk in the ocean it would not make such a difference for the EU citizens - they would not become more or less disillusioned than they are today.
The problem simply is much tax money is just trashed every day without any sense. However, the A380 project is a promising venture. And I'm sure most EU citizens are able to realize that.


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:19 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 21):
I am now 64 and I have never encountered so many people so desperate for an aircraft to fail.

I don't agree that most a.netters want the A380 to fail. Most seem to agree that it is a fantastic accomplishment in engineering. What does come to the surface, however, is skepticism in regards to its business case, and consequently what ramifications it might have if it were to fail to be a good investment of public funds from the EU taxpayers. Obviously many members are irritated by the Airbus PR machine which seems to hide true development costs from the public, although this behavior is not specific to Airbus only.

Getting back to the original topic, I will ask again-who will be the first to cancel?
 
draigonair
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:21 pm

Hmm all this A380 stuff that its not going to sell etc is getting a bit old...its not even on the market..Come on guys lets just enjoy the fact that the plane is actually there and flying!! All so negative! Everyone should be happy!!!

I bet if the A380 was boeing, alot more people would be saying 'oh yeh its going to do well' and they are now saying its not going to do wel...maybe they are just scared for boeing...Dont know!

Oh wel! Lets just see what the future is going to bring us Big grin

cheers

Nick
cheers
 
monteycarlos
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:23 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 21):
But I get the feeling that if the A380 had crashed on its first flight, half the posters on this website would be cheering.

I am now 64 and I have never encountered so many people so desperate for an aircraft to fail.

I find it rather sickening.

Mariner, words can't express how much I agree with you on this. Sad some people just can't get over the fact that another continent in the world can make commercial aircraft and be good at it!

Quoting QANTASforever (Reply 24):
If ever there was some way I could have a "REALLY respected user" list - you would be on it.

And I second that comment as well!

Quoting QANTASforever (Reply 24):
If people here support aviation, then surely they must support the A380.

Well I guess in their view, until the word Boeing appears in front of it, its an inferior aircraft and must be put down at all costs.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
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mariner
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:26 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 26):
I don't agree that most a.netters want the A380 to fail.

You can agree or not, it is meaningless to me. I know what I have read here on this site.

The very fact that you would start a thread like this suggests that you are not entirely altruistic in your feelings.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:39 pm

Quoting Udo (Reply 25):
Unfortunately, in today's politics voters cannot follow the way of taxmoney anymore. So if the billions for the A380 were invested in farm subsidies or just sunk in the ocean it would not make such a difference for the EU citizens - they would not become more or less disillusioned than they are today.
The problem simply is much tax money is just trashed every day without any sense. However, the A380 project is a promising venture. And I'm sure most EU citizens are able to realize that.

I've read and re-read your post, and I must say that you seem to contradict yourself in regards to the astuteness of the EU taxpayer. On the one hand, you seem to feel that they don't know or care where their money is going, and are disillusioned. On the other hand, you state that the EU taxpayer is well aware of government investment in aviation, and approves of it. But what I am trying to point out is that if the A380 is financially unsuccessful, then the public may become a stumbling block to the idea, and without a good business case, then where will the necessary investment be secured?
 
EmiratesUK
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:42 pm

O.K O.K........


I suppose someone will cancel an order eventually, just like many airlines have done with most other aircraft.

If and I mean if anyone did cancel, it will more than likely be an airline that hasn't made so much hype out of ordering the A380... KE,TG jump to mind. Some how I can't see EK canceling as they have ordered way more than any other airline, VS have really hyped up what they can put in it, and QF want it to compete against SQ on the kangaroo route.

Yes there more than likley will be a cancellation somewhere down the line, but for god sake its only just got of the ground. let it prove itself first before we all start bashing it.
EK A380 Private suite - Here I come!!
 
mrcomet
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:44 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 21):
I am now 64 and I have never encountered so many people so desperate for an aircraft to fail.

I don't think this is an aviation issue anymore. All those airplanes you talked about and that we all loved through the ages were built by pioneers whose toughness were built into the airplanes. Douglas Aircraft failed 7 times before it became a world leader. The fact that one airplane could make or break a company added to the thrill.

However, Airbus quite frankly doesn't have that thrill about it. I think that is where some animosity lies. It's a governmental industrial policy disguised as an airplane company. No matter how stupid Airbus execs get, they will be supported by their governments money. They may get fired eventually but Airbus will go on.

The A380 must make back about $15 billion dollars with a niche market airplane. I'd like to say it was a gutsy call by seasoned professionals who were risking their company and careers. They weren't risking much however.

I think some other posters feel (although I am not yet convinced) that since Airbus is all but guaranteed of not failing, it has become predatory with the A350. They've become a European Microsoft who is using their cheap and guaranteed capital and not the quality of their products or innovation to deal Boeing a blow. England, seeing Rover fail, has now pledged money to support the A350 to get more jobs. This type of system failed in Russia....why are we doing it in Europe.

The A350 makes little sense from an investment standpoint. It is two years late and doesn't come close to meeting the competition. It'll keep some sales out of Boeings hands but it doesn't exactly demand respect from aviation enthusiasts.

I can't wait to fly the A380 and I am glad it was built. I think the engineers and professionals at Airbus are probably great people. I like many of their products including the A320 and A330. However, I thought we were getting away from state industries in Europe.
The dude abides
 
EmmenezMoi
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:49 pm

Dhefty, you are being greedy!!
PNC aux portes!
 
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mariner
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:51 pm

Quoting MrComet (Reply 32):
The A350 makes little sense from an investment standpoint.

When did I even raise the matter of the A350?

If you are anti-Airbus, fine, although is is hard to imagine why Airbus should get less support than almost any other industry in the EU.

I am talking about the enthusiasm with which so many posters on this website discuss and anticipate the failure of the A380, including this thread starter.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Joni
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 6:57 pm

You guys shouldn't pay too much attention to the "report" linked to earlier in this thread. Aboulafia has been against the A380 (and most all things Airbus) for years now and this study (I admittedly only read the first few pages) can IMO probably be dismissed as "flak" designed to sling mud on the A380 project.
 
Udo
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:00 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 30):
On the one hand, you seem to feel that they don't know or care where their money is going, and are disillusioned. On the other hand, you state that the EU taxpayer is well aware of government investment in aviation, and approves of it.

Ok, misunderstanding. Fact is EU taxpayers are disillusioned by the trashing of money in general. In most cases they don't know where it's going. And if they know, they wonder why it's going there (massive farm subsidies).
Now we have a new project with the A380 - in contrast to the usual money trashing most taxpayers would agree it's an investment into the future, worth to take the risk. That's what I heard from many people who are not involved in aviation or don't even have a clue about aviation.

But even if it fails, don't expect major protests. If it fails most people would say "at least they trashed it for a project which looked promising". And we shouldn't forget that many people do not really know at all that the project involves that much tax money...


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:02 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 29):
You can agree or not, it is meaningless to me. I know what I have read here on this site.

The very fact that you would start a thread like this suggests that you are not entirely altruistic in your feelings.

You may be right in regard to "altruistic feelings", but I started this post for very different reasons, specifically to call into question the business case for the A380. To make it more plain, I called for a.netters to make their predictions on the first A380 cancellations, which may or may not be very significant, but at least would cause more of us to consider the Gellman, et al report in more detail. It really comes down to significant public and private funds being invested in a questionable project which has had very little public scrutiny. It seems to me that it is highly unlikely that the A380 will ever achieve its projections. I'm trying to find out what other aviation fans think. Is this the way democracies should work?
 
monteycarlos
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:11 pm

What I find funny is this:

Three years ago, people were saying it wouldn't get off the ground.

Two years ago they were saying it would never be built.

One year ago they said it would never leave the runway.

Now that it's done all that... It will never be successful.

And if it is (not saying it will or won't) then what will the same people argue?

And many of the same names keep popping up. Fair enough for those who genuinely believe based on their own analysis or opinions that this plane will not be successful for a reason, but many (and these are the ones I am guessing Mariner is referring to) have completely unfounded opinions based on nothing more than their dislike of Airbus. Its getting really old.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
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mariner
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:11 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 37):
Is this the way democracies should work?

Oh, please, don't come holier-than-thou. At no stage have I suggested that you should not have started the thread or that the thread should be deleted.

I defend, absolutely, your right to make any statement you want, ask any question you want.

I defend, as absolutely, my right to disgree.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 37):
hich has had very little public scrutiny.

I have seen extraordinary scrutiny, starting with the Gellman, more so than I have ever seen for - say - a Boeing project.

I have also seen extraordinary amounts of bullshit written.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Glom
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:16 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Thread starter):
So, get up and get typing!

Since you're new, we'll cut you some slack, but be advised that this is the 1,232th thread discussing what if the A380 tanks. It's getting to be very tiresome since the same negative discussion gets repeated. What makes it worse is that the threads are always complex questions, that must assume the A380 will be a failure. Rarely is it an objective discussion about the business case.
 
pelican
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:18 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 14):
Yes, and it can be dangerous to a nation's health to risk $16 billion on a dicey project.

Do you have an idea about the size of the European GDP and the combined GDPs of all participating nations respectively? I guess not.
It seems to me you're confusing something.


pelican
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:18 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 34):
I am talking about the enthusiasm with which so many posters on this website discuss and anticipate the failure of the A380, including this thread starter.

Perhaps you should read the Gellman, et al, report as cited above and comment on its projections. They may be way off. They may be right on. Or they may be somewhere in between. The main thing I am trying to do is to put numbers on the Airbus projections and look at them in a responsible fiscal light. This project is a huge gamble for the partners in the project. Without the embarassing questions, we all get hurt.
 
keesje
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:24 pm

Dhefty,

are you aware this Gellman A380 research report was funded by Boeing?

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,20410-1572218,00.html
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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mariner
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:29 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 42):
The main thing I am trying to do is to put numbers on the Airbus projections and look at them in a responsible fiscal light.

To what end?

What shall you achieve - that Airbus will cancel the A380 program, stop making the planes and give everyone their money back?

Yeh, right.

As Airbus CEO Forgeard so charmingly said "it is complete bullsheeeet."

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
dhefty
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:36 pm

Quoting Glom (Reply 40):
Since you're new, we'll cut you some slack, but be advised that this is the 1,232th thread discussing what if the A380 tanks.

Conversely, since you are not new, no slack need be supplied. But I am somewhat amazed that otherwise reasonable people don't seem to grasp that unexamined governmental projects can go askew. The Chunnel was sold to unsuspecting investors and they lost their shirts. How would you feel if that was your or your family's money? The same can be said for the Concorde. It was truly an incredible aircraft from a technical standpoint. Fortunately I didn't invest in it. But the A380 has moved from the left brain to the right in many a.netters minds, and therefore it cannot be examined in a reasonable fashion. The reason so many threads have started is that it is a monster project with very little facts to back it up.
 
SWISSER
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:37 pm

i've just read the first post in "furious anger" so;

*1 who will be the first to cancel 787 order?
*2 Has Boeing got a decent cancellation procedure for 787 cancels?
*3 this is just a B*sh*t post but indeed quite interesting!what if?
What time is top of descent?
 
haanz
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:37 pm

I've been around these forums as a lurker for years, with the odd post, and I've learnt tremendous amounts from them.

At the same time, there have been "extremists" in both main camps claiming their love/hate with Airbus and Boeing.

Now, this is a Civil Aviation forum, and we are meant to discuss and share our love of flying, aircraft, airports and anything airline.

Discussing hypothetical business cases like these, at the launch stage of an aircraft, can and will be seen as rather antagonistic, and I reckon there is a time and a place for everything.


Dhefty, welcome to the forums - you raise very thought provoking questions which are valid enough. Look forward to your contributions to come.
 
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skippy777
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:38 pm

Qatar has put the data back to 2009.
This because of the new airport that will be opened in that year. They are currently building a brand new one4 km outside the current airport
 
OE-LDA
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Who Will Be The First to Cancel An A380 Order?

Mon May 02, 2005 7:40 pm

I have not participated in the "why we need" - "why we do not need" the A380 so far, but now it is time to state my opinion.

Of course everyone is free to raise questions about any aviation product in this forum. But for me it looks like some people across the pond simply cannot handle the fact that a company in "Old Europe" (quote from defense Secretary Rumsfeld) has built a plane which is simply larger and more advanced than its counterpart from the other side of the big pond.

It never fails to amaze me how those people are concerned about the financial success of the plane (looks like they cannot challange it on a technical bases). I think the answer is very simple.:

If a company takes the risk of developing a new product, that is an element of the free market. Of course it is easyer to moderize a 35 year old product, but that is not how real progress is made.

Whenever there are critical remarks made about the USA in this forum, the standard answer from over there is: "If you don't like it here, then don't come." Now, let's turn this argument around: If you don't like the A380: Don't buy it, don't fly it, don't take pictures of it, don't look at it. If a sufficient number of airlines and passengers agree with you, then Airbus will probably go bankrupt, which is again only good for Boeing.

I think if all those who dedicate so much of there time to line out why the A 380 will not be successful would focus their attention on building a better aircraft, then this would be really a challenge to Airbus.

If the US don't care about other countries' opinion on issues like the international court of justice, international weapons treaties, human rights of prisoners, why should we care about their opinion on subsidies in the aviation industry. I think over there it would be phrased like that:" It is not in our interest ..."

Regards, OE-LDA
I am totally missing basics and clueless about airline flying!

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