Blasphemystic
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Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 11:52 am

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TRAVEL/0...t.superjumbo.delay.reut/index.html

"We have been notified by Airbus of a delay and are working with them to minimize it," a Singapore spokesman told Reuters. "We are still working toward an entry into commercial service in the second half of 2006."

Whats the delay?
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DLKAPA
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 11:55 am

Quoting Blasphemystic (Thread starter):
Whats the delay?

Some sort of Certification issue probably.
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 11:59 am

It was always on the cards after the delay in getting it into the air. The test programme is reckoned to require 15 months - and presumably it wouldn't be wise to go ahead full blast with production until they have more feedback form the tests, anyway.
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Ruscoe
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 12:00 pm

Some of the things I have heard are;

1 Software Problems relating to on board diagnostics, and legal problems with flight software

2. The focus on weight saving has resulted in an aircraft which will be more expensive to maintain ? What that means.

3. Problems with internal furnishings

4. Possible problems with undercarriage

5. Problems with the durability of the rear of craft

and lots of other things we hear which may have no basis infact (as far as we know)

That is the problem.

By not communicating better with the public it is a natural phenomenon that people start to draw their own conclusions.

Ruscoe
 
Blasphemystic
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 12:10 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 3):
Some of the things I have heard are;

1 Software Problems relating to on board diagnostics, and legal problems with flight software



Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 3):
4. Possible problems with undercarriage
5. Problems with the durability of the rear of craft

I would think these are some serious issues.

Will this have any effect on Emirates? A380's biggest customer.
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DLKAPA
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 12:11 pm

Will the A380's gear be equivalent to that of MD-11 then?
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Ruscoe
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 12:35 pm

I'm sure all these things can be fixed, (if indeed they are real and the cause of the delay), but will cost money, and time.

I would really like to know what is going on with the 380, to satisfy my curiosity. Everyone expects a clean sheet new aircraft like the 380 to have problems, but the deafening silence from Airbus does not help their cause at all.

As far as Emirates goes, both they and Airbus now have such a dependance on each other, that I'm sure Airbus will do whatever it takes to keep Emirates happy and Emirates will give Airbus some leeway also.
Intersting thing is that if Emirates goes with the 350, then they will further expose themselves to Airbus, and Airbus will become even more dependant on a single airline.

Ruscoe
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 12:37 pm

WSJ 05/04/05:

"The first airlines scheduled to fly the Airbus A380 super-jumbo jetliner say they expect to start using the planes later in next year than previously planned because of delays in delivery from the manufacturer.

...Amid celebrations of the successful flight, Airbus said the plane will enter service "in the second half of 2006." Airbus had previously targeted the start of service for the first half of next year.

...An Airbus spokesman declined to comment on reasons for the delay. But engineers on the aircraft, in which Airbus and its partners are investing more than $12 billion, or €9.3 million, have recently said that technical complexities of the giant project and efforts to hold its weight down have taken longer than originally planned, but aren't a sign of fundamental problems.

A spokesman for Singapore Airlines, which will be the first carrier to operate the world's largest passenger jet, said: "Airbus has advised us of a delay on the first delivery of aircraft and details are being worked through by ourselves and Airbus." He added that Singapore Airlines is "looking to minimize the impact of any delay in our ongoing discussions with Airbus."

Emirates of Dubai is slated to be the second airline to get the A380, in October 2006. When Emirates President Tim Clark was recently asked if he expected to receive the plane on time, he replied that delays are common with new aircraft models, according to an Emirates spokesman.

Airbus said in a statement that the A380's extensive testing over the next year should "prepare for a smooth entry into service..."
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 12:41 pm

That's just straight common sense, Ruscoe, I agree with you entirely.

But from my own experience after posting questions like that on here, I'd suggest that you take time off to run up to 'Aussie Disposals' and buy yourself a flak-jacket before the Airbus fans in Europe wake up.  Smile
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leelaw
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 1:07 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 6):
ntersting thing is that if Emirates goes with the 350, then they will further expose themselves to Airbus, and Airbus will become even more dependant on a single airline.

Here's some useful "psycho-babble" which may apply: co-dependant relationships can be very destructive for the parties involved; nevertheless, they're often difficult to recognize and terminate.

[Edited 2005-05-05 06:11:35]
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
dhefty
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 1:29 pm

Quoting Blasphemystic (Thread starter):
Whats the delay?

I suggest that this topic's name be amended to the following:

"Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo Profits"
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 1:37 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 10):
I suggest that this topic's name be amended to the following:

"Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo Profits"

But you maintain there aren't going to be any profits, so how can they be delayed?

 Smile

cheers

mariner
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dhefty
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 2:30 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 11):
But you maintain there aren't going to be any profits, so how can they be delayed?

No, there won't be any profits, but they may be able to fool the bond-rating agencies for a while, at least until management can all jump ship.

I heard Wellington is a nice place to live. Do they accept industrial con men?
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 2:35 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
No, there won't be any profits,

So - once again - how can they be delayed?

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
I heard Wellington is a nice place to live. Do they accept industrial con men?

You obviously know more about Wellington than I. I haven't been there since 1972.

cheers

mariner
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 2:37 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
they may be able to fool the bond-rating agencies for a while, at least until management can all jump ship.

Fougeard is already on his way - moving upstairs to head up EADS.

There's a delay in appointing his successor - supposedly because the French want a Frenchman and the Germans want a German.

But maybe that isn't the real reason. Perhaps they're reduced to asking for volunteers  Smile
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Blasphemystic
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 2:51 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 6):
I would really like to know what is going on with the 380, to satisfy my curiosity. Everyone expects a clean sheet new aircraft like the 380 to have problems, but the deafening silence from Airbus does not help their cause at all.

Glitches and problems are always expected...which is true.

Why would Airlines like EK commit to such huge orders until all is sorted out? The A380 looked great making its first flight but until it makes it's first profit these kind of stories will be a common thing.
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dhefty
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 3:01 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 14):
But maybe that isn't the real reason. Perhaps they're reduced to asking for volunteers

Now that is funny!

And with the financial train wreck on the way, it just might be accurate.
 
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 6:39 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 16):
And with the financial train wreck on the way, it just might be accurate

That would be very sad.
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 6:53 pm

I had heard a rumour from a guy in Toulouse that the wing break test had failed at 130% loading instead of a target of 150%. He said that they were considering a semi-redesign of parts of the wing to strengthen it. Not sure how true this is, but thought I'd throw it into the ring anyway.

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Blasphemystic
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 7:15 pm

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 18):
I had heard a rumour from a guy in Toulouse that the wing break test had failed at 130% loading instead of a target of 150%. He said that they were considering a semi-redesign of parts of the wing to strengthen it. Not sure how true this is, but thought I'd throw it into the ring anyway.

 worried 
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 7:15 pm

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 12):
I heard Wellington is a nice place to live

Yes Wellington is, the harbour on a fine day is a living art work Smile

Could this delay force other airlines to postpone deliverys?
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ZKSUJ
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 7:53 pm

Hmmmm, interesting. Is the aircraft still over weight?
 
Glom
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 8:07 pm

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 18):
I had heard a rumour from a guy in Toulouse that the wing break test had failed at 130% loading instead of a target of 150%. He said that they were considering a semi-redesign of parts of the wing to strengthen it. Not sure how true this is, but thought I'd throw it into the ring anyway.

I heard something similar albeit not from such a high up source. It was at the flying club and they were saying they had to strengthen the wing box because it wasn't strong enough.
 
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 8:29 pm

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 6):
By not communicating better with the public it is a natural phenomenon that people start to draw their own conclusions.

Interesting quotes Ruscoe. Yet I tend to think it is normal Airbus doon't communicate with the public. If you were creating a new business products and ran into problems during the development stage, would you go running to tell your potential clients and the general public about the problems. Don't think it would be a good idea to do so.

Quoting Blasphemystic (Reply 17):
That would be very sad.

Indeed it would be.
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 8:43 pm

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 23):
would you go running to tell your potential clients and the general public about the problems.

Oddly enough, Toulouse, yes, you would in a way.

Not 'go running', of course - you'd decide on the solution as well, and tell the clients (and the public) about both problem and solution at the same time.

There's no alternative. If you just try to sit on it, it's bound to leak out - which is the most damaging thing of all, after that it's right out of your control.
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 8:46 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 24):
There's no alternative. If you just try to sit on it, it's bound to leak out - which is the most damaging thing of all, after that it's right out of your control.

Good point NAV20, and I must admit a better angle then I took it from.
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 9:01 pm

Mind you, Toulouse, I think you're right about the Airbus people not being 'natural communicators' by any means  Smile

Blasphemistic, Glom, were these rumours of recent trouble - or something that happened ages ago and has already been dealt with?

I'd be surprised if they're still testing the wings, they'd surely do that long before it flew?
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Pihero
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 10:04 pm

Alas! the answer to your questions is quite disappointing. It is partly because your main source of info -CNN - was either too busy with other subjects, like the death and subsequent resurrection of a pope, among other things, or it is sadly out of date as the delay in the delivery to EK has been known for more than a month.
The delay is mainly due to the certification problems encountered by Alliance on the GE7200, as this short thread shows :
A380 Flight Test Schedule (by Pihero Apr 29 2005 in Civil Aviation)

but of course, that won't satisfy NAV20.( What would, short of an A-bomb on both Toulouse and Bremen or an Ebola plague on AI design building...or an A380 crash,preferably on the Eiffel tower................................ad lib ?

(btw,did an AI employee run away with your wife/daughter/niece............ad lib ? 'cause it would explain your hatred for Airbus. )
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Blasphemystic
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 10:06 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):
Blasphemistic, Glom, were these rumours of recent trouble - or something that happened ages ago and has already been dealt with?

I dont think its a rumour. Atleast according to CNN.
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Blasphemystic
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 10:13 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
but of course, that won't satisfy NAV20.( What would, short of an A-bomb on both Toulouse and Bremen or an Ebola plague on AI design building...or an A380 crash,preferably on the Eiffel tower................................ad lib ?

(btw,did an AI employee run away with your wife/daughter/niece............ad lib ? 'cause it would explain your hatred for Airbus. )

Is someone dancing on your nerve PIHERO?
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Thu May 05, 2005 10:15 pm

Soory, Blasphemystic - meant the rumour of wing trouble, that isn't on CNN!

Of course, it was NZ1 who mentioned that first.
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United737522
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 2:54 am

With such a wide range of people on this board, I am surprised that no one knows what the problem is yet!
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leelaw
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 3:01 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 27):
like the death and subsequent resurrection of a pope

Somehow I missed that news flash. Resurrection stories will always trump stories about delivery delays.  rotfl 
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 3:49 am

Quoting Blasphemystic (Reply 4):

Will this have any effect on Emirates? A380's biggest customer.

I'm sure Emirates, like any other customer, is going to wait 'til the plane is ready to go ....

First of all, Airbus isn't going to release it until it's ready, and no airline is going to fly it until same.

Second of all, what are they gonna do as an alternative? Fly smaller planes? That's what they're doing currently !

So no real biggie, they just keep on w/current ops, and when the big boy is ready to play, then it enters service ...

Buying and airliner is not like buying a car - you don't just go down the street and buy a Ford because the Chevy dealer's out of the make/model in the color you want ... these guys are pretty stuck - not only is there no competing make/model to switch to (which prevents them from cancelling the order), but even if you could go to a competing model, you can't just buy one off the showroom floor - you'd have to put your order in and wait in line anyway.

So they may as well just sit tight and wait it out.

Y'all gotta remember - this thing's a brand new build and there are gonna be problems and issues. Not only that, but there's virtually NO previous data to rely upon concerning a passenger aircraft this large ... yeah, the 747 is big, but even a fully loaded 744 doesn't approach the size and weight of this thing ... what did I read, the initial test flight at 410 tons, itself was a higher TOW then the MTOW of a 744 ? Sheesh!

Maybe if you looked at technical data from C-141 or C5 programs it might help, but even at that, those are military high-wind transport planes - totally different in design.

So all airbus can do here is simulate the heck out of the design, and bend metal ... and hope that the metal performs like the simulations say it should. Sometimes it will, sometimes it won't ... and that's where engineers earn their pay !  Smile

I *still* find it amazing how fast that thing pops off the ground even with the engines run at a derated power level for testing purposes ...

- litz
 
mrcomet
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 5:11 am

In the absence of news we get speculation. Speculation is just an outlet for prejudice.

However, we are not buying airplanes so Airbus isn't going to update us at any time. I am sure Singapore and Emirates are getting almost daily updates if they care.

In the end, Airbus will have to let the whole world know whether they met the design specs and then we can judge this plane. I just hope they delay it as long as necessary to make it the best plane it can be.
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Blasphemystic
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 5:52 am

Quoting United737522 (Reply 31):
With such a wide range of people on this board, I am surprised that no one knows what the problem is yet!

True  expressionless 

Quoting Litz (Reply 33):
I *still* find it amazing how fast that thing pops off the ground even with the engines run at a derated power level for testing purposes ...

I would like to see how fast it will pop of the ground in an EK/Singapore logo instead of the Airbus/A380 one  scratchchin 
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Glom
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 5:56 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):
Glom, were these rumours of recent trouble - or something that happened ages ago and has already been dealt with?

No idea. This evidence is anecdotal after all.
 
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 10:26 am

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 5):
Will the A380's gear be equivalent to that of MD-11 then?

Not to digress, but what does this refer to? Thanks.
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Blasphemystic
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 10:31 am

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 3):
4. Possible problems with undercarriage

Maybe referring to this

 Confused
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NAV20
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 12:44 pm

Quoting MrComet (Reply 34):
In the absence of news we get speculation. Speculation is just an outlet for prejudice. However, we are not buying airplanes so Airbus isn't going to update us at any time. I am sure Singapore and Emirates are getting almost daily updates if they care.

That's more or less how I thought at first, MrComet (see Reply 2) - that the delayed first flight had pushed the testing programme/delivery dates forward few months.

However I now discover that, as of yesterday, Singapore Airlines have NO IDEA as to when they will be getting the A380; whereas Qantas still thinks it will be getting them on time.

"SINGAPORE Airlines is hoping a decision by European plane maker Airbus to delay the delivery of the first A380 will not significantly affect the aircraft's entry into service.

"Sydney will be among the first destinations to see the double-decker aircraft, which Singapore had been hoping to obtain in July. However, sources have told The Australian the first delivery will be delayed by at least several weeks. "It may be more than a month," one source said. "But we're not looking - as far as I know, at this point, anyway - at it being multiple months."

"Airbus was not commenting yesterday on the extent of the delay or the reasons for it. But Singapore Airlines spokesman Stephen Forshaw said the carrier had been told of the delay by Airbus. "We're working with Airbus to minimise that delay," he said.

"At this point we don't believe it will impact on our plans for entry into commercial service during the second half of 2006. Of course, as with any new aircraft, there are ongoing discussions between ourselves and Airbus on the delivery program."

"Qantas, which has ordered 12 of the super jumbos, said it still expected the first to begin service in October."


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au.../0,5744,15189363%255E23349,00.html

October/February is summer/high season on the Kangaroo Route and all tourist routes in the Southern Hemisphere. The difference between July delivery and say November delivery therefore amounts to hundreds of millions in revenue to the A380 customers; to say nothing of affecting their marketing and training programmes, disposal of their existing aircraft etc. They must be privately SCREAMING for a firm date.

The fact that Airbus is unable to give them one suggests to me that this is more than minor slippage. That there is, in fact, a real problem, and that no-one knows, at present, how long it will take to fix.

And also that either Airbus management should get itself a new Public Relations Department, or start listening to the one it has. The last phrase you should use to a journalist in circumstances of this sort is "No comment."
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Ruscoe
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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 2:19 pm

Other problem for Singapore with a late delivery is that they lose a lot of marketing advantage time to Qantas.

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RE: Airbus Warns Of Delay For Super-jumbo

Fri May 06, 2005 2:55 pm

Not to mention that any delays will inevitably lead to yet further downward adjustments of the already rock-bottom launch prices. Which is presumably what Singapore Airlines meant by, "......there are ongoing discussions between ourselves and Airbus on the delivery program."
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci