DfwRevolution
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Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 10:05 am

When Boeing rolled out the first 737NG on December 6, 1996, the tails of 24 airlines who had placed firm launch orders graced the side of the prototype. When Boeing rolled out the first 777 on April 9, 1994, Boeing had recieved 12 customers. At the roll-out ceremony of the A380 just a few weeks ago, Airbus had recieved 15 customers-


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As of this evening, Northwest Airlines commitment to 18 787 brings the number of launch customers to 21. Anyone want to wager that, upon roll-out in 2007, the 787 will have more launch customers than some of the most succesful narrow/wide-body programs *ever* ?



That's more of a rhetorical question, but there are two points I'd like to raise:

1. Fair to say Boeing has timed the 787 well? There has been some question to that, mostly on the side that the 787 is a few years late. Given that airlines looking at both long-term planning and growth are opting for the 787, I would think that to be a faulty criticism.

- Airbus scored 527 orders for the A330 variants over 12 years
- Boeing scored 946 orders for the 767 variants over 25 years
- Boeing is now a handful of 787 orders away from surpassing 8 years of A332 sales, which brings me to point 2:

2. Want to wager that Boeing has a stronger command of product cycles and more fruitful RoI?
 
ACYWG
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 10:10 am

Also factor in there that a number of airlines (AC, NW, and KE to name a few) that currently operate a fleet of A330 series aircraft are on the books for the 787. A turn-around of airlines like that must count for something.
 
DLKAPA
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 10:13 am

Though I agree with the above sentiments, this thread is gonna turn A vs B real quick, and right now I'm gonna  duck 
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 10:38 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Thread starter):
Want to wager that Boeing has a stronger command of product cycles and more fruitful RoI?

...if only they didn't pull off that stupid PR stint with 787 as a flying flounder... Kudos to them for having it finalized in its present form!!!
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USAF336TFS
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 11:23 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Thread starter):
As of this evening, Northwest Airlines commitment to 18 787 brings the number of launch customers to 21. Anyone want to wager that, upon roll-out in 2007, the 787 will have more launch customers than some of the most succesful narrow/wide-body programs *ever* ?

No one could say it better. I wouldn't be surprised that this aircraft will be almost as much of a success as the 707. Either by design, foresight and/or circumstances, it seems to be the right aircraft at the right time. Congratulations Boeing and NorthWest. I'm quite sure NW hung this purchase over the unions heads during negotiations. Looking forward to seeing this beauty in Star Alliance livery. I'm sure this question has been discussed in other threads, but do you think this will influence other Star Alliance members purchase plans?
336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
 
jacobin777
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 12:14 pm

I've read in news posts that Boeing has mentioned they will have well into the 400's by the end of the year...thats pretty impressive.......!!  yes 
"Up the Irons!"
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 12:35 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 5):
I've read in news posts that Boeing has mentioned they will have well into the 400's by the end of the year...thats pretty impressive.......!!

I'll believe it when I see it. Anyone remember their "200 orders before the end of 2004" stint???

Realistically though, it's possible for Boeing to have 400 frames ordered at the time of rollout.
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Lemurs
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 12:45 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
I'll believe it when I see it. Anyone remember their "200 orders before the end of 2004" stint???

I'm not sure why that gets trotted out all the time like it was the one of the biggest flops of all time. If I'm not mistaken, they had 189 when the calendar ticked over. 11 short of what was a big stretch goal is disappointing, but not worthy of ridicule. I'd say if they get to 389 before this year is out, they'd be popping champagne and Airbus would be gravely unhappy.
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
 
QFA001
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 1:38 pm

If Boeing continues at this rate then they'll have to put the customers down each side of the airplane.  Wink

FWIW, when it comes to customer numbers, I don't know of an airplane that has had more than the 27 customers that the B747 had prior to its roll-out. The City of Everett had them all painted on the side, too. However, it does seem that the B787 will well and truly smash that particular record.
 
ha763
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 3:06 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Thread starter):
As of this evening, Northwest Airlines commitment to 18 787 brings the number of launch customers to 21.

Just a correction. Currently, there are only 20 launch customers for the 787. If you count the logos in the picture in the first post, there are only 20 airlines. Also, the Boeing press release about NW's order also mentions 20 airlines.

Quote:
Northwest becomes a member of the 787 Launch Team that now includes 20 airlines from around the world. Orders and commitments for the 787 since its launch last year total 255.

http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2005/q2/nr_050505g.html
 
boeingfever777
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 3:20 pm

DfwRevolution

where did you get that pic of the 787 with its current customers?

BTW: Being that NW ordered the 787 and when they got the A330 KL got it, so does this mean that KL will follow suit and place a order with AF for a handful of 787's?

Bids on next carrier to place an order for the 787?

BA
QR
QF
LH
KL
LO
AY

Quoting DfwRevolution (Thread starter):
Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

When does Boeing plan for this a/c to rollout?

2007?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre.
 
Mark_D.
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 3:39 pm

Let's just hope they roll out (787) test fuselage mini-section #2 sometime soon now since it's been about three months since the last one came out of the oven.

They're still so far from rolling an actual plane out --let alone first flying it successfully-- that to talk about any of that now is just a flighty reverie and little more  fluffy 

Plus the number of firm orders is still less than a hundred. The rest is just folks putting their names down in pencil on the reservation list, just in case Boeing does actually manage to come through with this in something resembling the timeline promised and if simultaneously Airbus for their part still don't have anything that would compare. And in which case those early-adopter airlines would get priority dibs on (the majority of) extra 787s they have so far merely preliminarily "shown interest in".
 
QFA001
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Fri May 06, 2005 4:46 pm

Quoting Mark_D. (Reply 11):
Let's just hope they roll out (787) test fuselage mini-section #2 sometime soon now since it's been about three months since the last one came out of the oven.

AFAIK, Boeing has test produced a few sections. IIRC, Mike Bair said that all up they were going to do six. Very reliant on memory for this one.
 
KC135R
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sat May 07, 2005 8:43 am

Quoting Mark_D. (Reply 11):
They're still so far from rolling an actual plane out --let alone first flying it successfully-- that to talk about any of that now is just a flighty reverie and little more

And yet you have no evidence to back up your implication that it won't fly successfully, on time - no one really knows yet, but this is not the first time Boeing has built an airplane, so I wouldn't bet against them. The 747 went from start to finish in a mere 16 months.

Quoting Mark_D. (Reply 11):
Airbus for their part still don't have anything that would compare.

They tried, with the A350 - and I would say that has fallen short of expectations. My fact, only one airline intends to buy 10 airplanes thus far.

Maybe Airbus should finish up with the A380 and then focus on becoming the first to offer a new A320 size replacement instead of offering an A330 with GEnx engines on it, which as far as I can tell (though info on the plane has not been forthcoming) is all the A350 is.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sat May 07, 2005 8:59 am

Quoting USAF336TFS (Reply 4):
Looking forward to seeing this beauty in Star Alliance livery. I'm sure this question has been discussed in other threads, but do you think this will influence other Star Alliance members purchase plans?

Not sure how it would, considering NW is a member of SKYTEAM.  Wink

Now, LOT and Air Canada are STAR carriers...
 
co7772wuh
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 12:26 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Thread starter):
1. Fair to say Boeing has timed the 787 well? There has been some question to that, mostly on the side that the 787 is a few years late. Given that airlines looking at both long-term planning and growth are opting for the 787, I would think that to be a faulty criticism.

Yes , I would say Boeing did time the 787 very well !

Airbus appears to be and will be quite busy on the A380 for the foreseeable future .

While AB is working on a huge a/c for a small market using current Technology , as DfWRevolution has stated . Boeing is working on a completely new, efficient and revolusionary a/c on not 1 but 3 different size a/c for a huge market . Putting even more pressure on AB.

Boeing will also have the luxury of using 787 technology on future a/c , as they are on the 747ADV and possiblly on all future a/c . Furthermore , if the ADV is launched ? I have a feeling that Boeing will sell the 747ADV and 787 and/or 777 as a package at an aggressive price to go up against the A380 .

Boeing was just doing the old " Rope ah Dope " .  drunk 
 
dhefty
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 2:06 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Thread starter):
- Airbus scored 527 orders for the A330 variants over 12 years

In 13 years, 1992 thru 2004, 329 A330's were delivered, compared to 560 B767's in a 13-year period of 1982 thru 1994. When you're talking about ROI, it's best to compare only deliveries rather than orders. Many other factors enter into the ROI equation, though.
 
PPVRA
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 2:40 am

Quoting Ha763 (Reply 9):
Just a correction. Currently, there are only 20 launch customers for the 787. If you count the logos in the picture in the first post, there are only 20 airlines. Also, the Boeing press release about NW's order also mentions 20 airlines.

Count again  Wink

PPVRA
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
rsmith6621a
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 4:31 am

http://www.flightpaths.com.au/gfx/downloads/Concept_800.jpg


Boeing spread nothing off of this sketch.......not even the winglets are on the final version........how much more spectacular the original sketch would have looked being unvailed
Did You Ever Think Freedom Could Be this Bad
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 5:15 am

Rsmith...let it go. In every damn thread about the 787, you have to complain about Boeing's marketing. It's really getting old, and I know I'm not the only one who's sick of it.

And btw, those aren't winglets in the pic you posted. They are the raked wingtips which ARE included in the final version. The 787-3 has blended winglets, which Boeing always said it would.

You obviously hate Boeing's marketing department. Why don't you go complain to them instead of all of us, because frankly, I don't think anyone cares.
 
Rj111
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 5:23 am

Wow look at all those shiny orders, let's just hope it meets the ambitious performance targets.       

[Edited 2005-05-07 22:24:49]
 
DfwRevolution
Topic Author
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 5:43 am

Quoting Rsmith6621a (Reply 18):
not even the winglets are on the final version

The winglets made it...

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/k63304-4.html
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/7e7/k63304-2.html
 
L410Turbolet
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 6:12 am

Quoting ACYWG (Reply 1):
AC, NW, and KE to name a few) that currently operate a fleet of A330 series aircraft are on the books for the 787. A turn-around of airlines like that must count for something.

Just as BA, LH, Air Berlin, Air Asia, CSA, EasyJet and others switched from 737 to A32X. Your point is?
 
KC135R
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 6:48 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 20):
Wow look at all those shiny orders, let's just hope it meets the ambitious performance targets.

How mature...

How long are people going to keep playing this game? You can "hope" it meets the targets all day long - no one will know until it starts flying. If anything, with technology these days (extensive computer modeling, etc) you can bet they aren't promising things they can't deliver - Boeing hasn't made a habit of doing that. So making a statement like that, obviously meant to be negative, is pointless.
 
moose1226
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 7:17 am

While that last few months have been phenominal for the 787 program, the orders simply cannot go on at the existing rate for two reasons.

(1) Many of the expected orders have been awarded, and eventually, demand for an aircraft of the 787's size will be met orders will slow. Simple economics.

(2) If sales DO continue at the existing rate (hard to imagine) Airbus will basically have no choice but to respond with something better than the 350. They can't abandon the market all toghter.

I can't see the 787 getting 400 orders by the end of 2005.
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 1:00 pm

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 10):

BA

Possible

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 10):

QR

I'll believe it when I see it

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 10):

QF

Possible after 2012

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 10):

LH

Not likely, but who the hell knows...

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 10):

KL

Possible

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 10):

LO

Definitive - will be announced any day now

Quoting BoeingFever777 (Reply 10):

AY

Possible once they get their money straight...

Quoting Rsmith6621a (Reply 18):
Boeing spread nothing off of this sketch.......not even the winglets are on the final version........how much more spectacular the original sketch would have looked being unvailed

Good greef... when will people finally get over the fact, that the Flying Flounder is gone for good and 787 will look like a REAL BOEING AIRPLANE?!!??!
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AC787
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RE: Boeing 787 Roll-out Thoughts

Sun May 08, 2005 2:51 pm

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 6):
"200 orders before the end of 2004" stint???

Your kidding right. They were close when the year ended and hit that 200 very early into the year. Not ideal but still respectable.

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 22):
Just as BA, LH, Air Berlin, Air Asia, CSA, EasyJet and others switched from 737 to A32X. Your point is?

The point is that its always a good thing when Airbus,Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, and any other company gets an airline to switch from one companies model to the other. Noones taking away from Airbuses success with the 320 hes just pointing out the 787's success.

I would imagine the rollout to be in 2007, so thats pretty close. I can't wait. As for other star alliance airlines flying the 787, united is a good bet if they recover, SQ could go either way, and LH is the same. What about Varig, Thai, and BMI, I know varig isnt in the best shape but has there been any indications that any of these airlines are looking at these planes for the future. I havent heard much concerning them.

AC787

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