Jet-lagged
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Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 7:05 pm

An interesting article at the Seattle Times regarding 787 orders:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...aerospace/2002265083_boeing06.html

An internal document shows a further 35 accepted proposals not yet mentioned publicly. That would boost the tally of orders from 255 to 290.

The accepted proposals include an order for 10 787-8s going to Qatar Airways, now an all-Airbus customer on the Arabian Gulf
 
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 7:21 pm

Thanks for the link Jet-lagged, interesting they mention QR. I also found the following of interest too..

AWAS sales executive Charlie Soncrant yesterday acknowledged that his company is looking at the 787, but warned that talk of a deal is premature

Given there are now 20 announced operators I was wondering when we'd see some of the leasing companies other than GECAS & ILFC mentioned. Even though ILFC have expressed their interest for 20 I believe it will only be a matter of time before we see AWAS, SALE or Boullioun make an order for the 787.

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squirrel83
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 7:44 pm

Thanks for the link Jet-lagged, interesting they mention QR. I also found the following of interest too..



Airline is set to seal jets deal

Dubai: Qatar Airways is in 'advanced discussions' with Airbus and Boeing to purchase new aircraft but wants certain demands to be met before concluding a deal, an airline official said.

"It is a strategic decision and the company will not rush to take any decision before receiving all the answers. We are negotiating on Boeing 7E7 and Airbus A350," chief executive officer Akbar Al Baker said.

"We're in an advanced stage of discussions with both manufacturers and hope to conclude a deal with both or one of the two before the Paris (air) show...


http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=111202&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=28047

[Edited 2005-05-06 12:46:54]
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Jet-lagged
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 7:46 pm

Quoting PANAM_DC10 (Reply 1):
I believe it will only be a matter of time before we see AWAS, SALE or Boullioun make an order for the 787.

Good point. In fact, what is the typical percentage of a particulare aircraft model which are bought by leasing companies, to support that part of market demand? Ten percent? If so, that means Boeing can already comfortably count on at least 25 787s being ordered from somebodies in the leasing business.
 
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 7:53 pm

Quoting PANAM_DC10 (Reply 1):
Given there are now 20 announced operators I was wondering when we'd see some of the leasing companies other than GECAS & ILFC mentioned. Even though ILFC have expressed their interest for 20 I believe it will only be a matter of time before we see AWAS, SALE or Boullioun make an order for the 787.

PA, I think the lessors have all ready been working some deals with the airlines. For example, First Choice seems (seemed?) to be in bed with GECAS. I think that the lessors will commit soon, but I wouldn't expect them to have been able to secure too early delivery slots.
 
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 8:09 pm

Here was the part that I was most interested in:

Quote:
"Airbus made a very aggressive offer for the A350 at both Northwest and Air Canada," Courpron said in a recent interview. "I can only assume that Boeing made a more aggressive offer, otherwise they wouldn't have won those two campaigns at places where we were the incumbent."

I think it is safe to say that Airbus thought all they had to do was show up and offer a decent price. It could have been very close (price wise), but the actual ability of the aircraft was what ended up doing-in these deals.
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 8:29 pm

Quoting Cruiser (Reply 5):
It could have been very close (price wise), but the actual ability of the aircraft was what ended up doing-in these deals.

Yes, maybe Boeing did provide a 'more agressive offer'. One with a lower total cost of ownership and operations for the revenue generated.

What I wonder is which airlines are the 35 accepted proposals. LOT is seeming likely. Qater would be interesting. IILC? More Europeans?
 
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 9:04 pm

Quoting Squirrel83 (Reply 2):
an advanced stage of discussions with both manufacturers and hope to conclude a deal with both or one of the two before the Paris (air) show...

Qatar keep talking about "one or both" (or maybe it's the same quote being repeated) but I wonder if the mean it. "Both"? Several airlines ordered 777-200s and A330-300s within a short time so I wonder if any will go for the 787 and A350... (Note: I'm not predicting this, just wondering out loud.)

Of course "one or both" need not be confined to the 787/350 battle. Qatar almost certainly will/must buy more (lots more) in the 345/346/772/773 range. They have already ordered an almost pointlessly small number of A346s. What about a Paris announcement for 787s and more A346s? Again, just wondering...
 
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 11:01 pm

The Seattle Times article is very clear that QR has accepted a proposal to buy 10 787s(-8s I presume). This differs from the refundable deposits on delivery slots. I think it is now a safe bet that QR will order the 787 in the very near future, as will LOT. The article says QR will get 787s in 2008/9 so they must be 788s. They could still very well order 350s as well IMO. ILFC can't be too far away from committing and maybe EI will make their mind up soon.
Looking more and more like the 350 will rely heavily on a big EK commitment and possibly from ILFC as well.
 
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 11:19 pm

Quoting Dalecary (Reply 8):
Looking more and more like the 350 will rely heavily on a big EK commitment and possibly from ILFC as well.

May happen but given that Boeing may actually accomodate EK on the 787-9 capacity increase along with price discounts, EK can be tempted to buy the 787. The A350 has lost a great deal of momentum especially in the last 2 weeks with orders from KE, AC, and NW...all big A330 operators as well as AI. I don't think Airbus is putting a compelling product out there and many airlines see that. I wonder if Air Europa wants to change their mind. If that happens then Airbus should go back to the drawing board.
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starrion
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 11:25 pm

Could they be interested in 783's and 788's as well as 359's to meet both the small, mid and large segments?

I would think it would make more sense to go with one family even if the largest member is slightly smaller than optimal.
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 11:28 pm

I wouldn't be surprised for the 789 in 2010 for QR. They want something of that size with the earlier delivery date and I think Boeing is pulling all stops to accomodate them. Smart on Boeing's part. Now if they can get EK on board!
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Fri May 06, 2005 11:42 pm

You're the eternal optimist NYC777.
 
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Sat May 07, 2005 8:17 am

"In addition, the head of the 787 program, Mike Bair, has said that his sales team has about 400 further open proposals under consideration with 25 other customers."

wow...that would bring it well above 600!!!!

I would love to see PK and BA order a few......  biggrin 
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AvFan4ever
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Sat May 07, 2005 10:40 am

Quoting Jet-lagged (Reply 6):
Yes, maybe Boeing did provide a 'more agressive offer'. One with a lower total cost of ownership and operations for the revenue generated.

Jet-lagged,
This is one of the most insightful and intelligent concepts ever mentioned within the A.net forums. Airlines choose aircraft based on many factors, total cost of ownership is often a key factor. Concluding that the cost of ownership, reliability, technological superiority, etc., for one aircraft is superior to another aircraft based on sales figures is extremely naive.

For the sake of discussion, let's pretend that one aircraft has a lower purchase cost, but a higher total cost of ownership. This might appeal to operators with marginal yet improving finances. Same example, yet one operator has tremendously low labor costs, another has high labor costs . . . . who is the 'winner' now? Aircraft reliability? Maintenance costs required to keep the aircraft flying? These are lesser considerations for a startup or LLC is trying to modernize their fleet and reduce fuel costs. Would higher sales figures necessarily indicate this particular aircraft is "superior"? The picture become even more cloudy when airframers pitch a cost of ownership or reliability (or fuel burn!) story for a yet-to-be-built aircraft to prospective customers.
 
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RE: Seattle Times Suggests 255 Is Already 290

Sat May 07, 2005 11:54 am

AvFan4Ever

Excellent point - the criteria that airlines choose differ from airline to airline, based on their economics and markets.

In another post was a summary of how NW evaluated the 777. In short, they had to make many calculations adjustments compared to what Boeing claimed as baseline, to best reflect how NW would use the plane it they purchased. (Apparently the 787 is a very good fit for them though). A good illustration of your point.

So at the end of the day there will be some airlines at which either A or B just won't be competitive at. Their product/services/financing offering which they developed the best they could based on a range of potential customers will be a good match for some, but at others it will be doomed before they even know it.

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