rjpieces
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Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 5:02 am

Now that NW has placed their large 787s order, do you think they will be more willing to order the 777 for their Pacific operation when the time comes?

About a year ago, many A.netters (including some whom I respect very much) were downright laughing at the prospect of NW ordering the 787. But now that NW has proven what many of us have been saying for a while (that commonality is overrated), does anybody think they might go for a triple 7?

Also, does anybody have a link to the report of NW's 333 vs 777 analysis for their Atlantic operation?

Thanks.
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boeingbus
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 5:06 am

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
they will be more willing to order the 777

Not anytime soon... maybe when the time comes to replace the A333 in 2025... lol... they will go for a new generation 777. They are very happy with the Airbus A333...

But who knows when they have to replace the 747's??? they may opt for the 773ER.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
B742
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 5:07 am

I hope they opt. for the 747ADV rather than the 773ER, but any order would be nice!

Rob!
 
Lemurs
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 5:10 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 1):
Not anytime soon... maybe when the time comes to replace the A333 in 2025... lol... they will go for a new generation 777. They are very happy with the Airbus A333...

But who knows when they have to replace the 747's??? they may opt for the 773ER.

I thought they still operated 742s at the moment. Wouldn't the 773ER make a better 1:1 replacement than the 333? (I don't know what routes they operate on, so who knows...)
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 5:12 am

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
Also, does anybody have a link to the report of NW's 333 vs 777 analysis for their Atlantic operation?

Keep in mind that they restricted their analysis primarily to the PW4000 powered versions of A333, 772A, and 772ER.

Depending on who they choose to engine their 787s, their perspective on the T7 could change as well.
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B742
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 5:16 am

Is the NWA mainline fleet all powered by PW (except A320's)?

A320 CFM?
757-200 PW
757-300 PW
A330-200 PW
A330-300 PW
DC-10-30 ??
747-200 ??
747-400 ??

Rob!
 
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United_fan
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 5:23 am

DC-10-30's are all GE powered.......
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chiawei
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 5:43 am

all NW 747 are PW powered.
DC-10-20(40) are PW powered

DC-10-30 are GE powered.
 
Jano
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 5:58 am

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
Also, does anybody have a link to the report of NW's 333 vs 777 analysis for their Atlantic operation?

I do not have the link, but here is the report:


Perspective on NW's Recent Selection of the A330 of
777

By Tim Campbell, Managing Director- Performance
Analysis

From On Course, Northwest Fligiht Operations Magazine
May/June 2001

The January February issue of On Course contained an
article by Capt. Jeff Carlson that outlined the
details of Northwest's multibillion-dollar ivestment
in new aircraft. A large component of this order
includes 24 PW4168A-powered A330-300s. Numerous
questions have arisen since the announcement of this
order, specifically why the A330 was selected instead
of the 777.

This article will address these questions by
summarizing our assessment of the performance
characteristics of the A330 relative to the 777 and
how this onformation was used in the final evaluation
of these two aircraft.

The competition between the 777 and A330 was for a new
aircraft taht would replace our DC-10-30s on dedicated
transatlantic missions.

Perhaps the most important performance-related aspect
of this aircraft evaluation was finding the best match
between aircraft payload-range capability and
forcasted payload demand. We were seeking an aircraft
that efficiently meets our projected requirements. As
shown in the graphs, the A330 most optimally meets our
payload requirements in the Atlantic. This payload
capability, when coupleted with operating costs and
projected market requirements (demand) for both
passenger and cargo traffic, offers the highest
earnings potential.

The match between capability and market requirements
is important because it is inefficient to operate
aicraft with excess capbality. Our evaluation clearly
shows that the 777-200ER aircraft has significantly
more payload-range capability than the A330-300.

The additional range capability could be helpful if
the same aircraft were also flown across the Pacific.
However this possible dual mission capability was
determined to be impractical because Pacific aircraft
require a much greater share of World Business Class
seats than Atlantic aircraft. Furthermore, the Pratt
powered 777-200ER could not fly many critical Pacific
missions with full passenger load, and most missions
required weight limits on cargo.

This is not necessarily apparent if one looks from the
generic marketing material from Boeing because the
range of the 777-200, evaluated with Northwest rules
and interiors, is approximately 1,100 miles less than
advertised.

The 777 can carry more seats than the A330 although
the A330 already carries 29 more seats than our
current DC-10-30s. The optimal 777-200 configuration
we modeled had 27 more seats tahn the A330-300
(329-302) and 56 seats more than the DC-10-30
(329-273). However, these additional seats were
economy seats taht typically would be filled with
lower yielding passengers.

The 777 has the same empty weight for all available
MTOW's (580,000-656,000 lbs). Northwest requires only
the lowest weight for nearly all markets, roughly
comparable to the A330. The net result to Northwest is
that the 777 is more than 41,000 pounds heavier than
the A330 yet provides minimal additional revenue
capacity.

The heavier weight of the 777 translates directly into
a fuel burn penalty. On a typical 3,500 nm mission,
the A330 burns approximately 28% less fuel tahn a
DC-10-30; accounting for its higher seating capacity,
it burns 35% less on a per seat basis. The much
heavier 777 burns approximately 16% more fuel than the
A330 on a per trip basis, and 6% more on a per seat
basis.

Questions have arisen about the cruise speed of the
A330, largely due to issues surrounding the cruise
speed of the A340. NW intends to operate the A330 at a
cruise speed of Mach 0.82. This speed corresponds to
the aircraft's LRC (long range cruise) Mach number for
most gross weight/altitude combinations. While the
published cruise speed of the A340 is Mach 0.82, our
analysis substantiates the experience of line pilots
taht certain operators fly slower to avoid excessive
fuel burn. Airbus has implicitly recognized the cruise
speed issue with the "first generation" A340's by
redesigning the wing on the A340-500 and -600.

757/767 DC10-30 A330 777/747-200
Cruise speed .80 .82 .82 .84


As shown in the table, the A33's cruise speed is
slower than the 777, but it is consisten with our
DC-10-30 and faster than other aircraft operating
accross the Atlantic. The cruise speed differences
between the 777 and A330 equiates to a trip length
difference of approximately 10 minutes on a typical
Atlantic mission. It may be interesting to note that
Northwest negotiated stringent, comprehensive
contractual commitments from Airbus to ensure the A330
will meet our performance expectations both at the
time of deliever and for several years thereafter.
This is a requirement we make of airframe/engine
manufacturers, including Boeing. The performance level
of the new 757-300's has a similar level of
protection. Our agreementwith Airbus also provides us
with mission flexibility we could not achieve with
Boeing. The Airbus agreement is structured to allow us
to take delivery of other members of the A330 family
if our requirements change over time. A shorter
memeber of the A330 family, the A330-200, has 257
seats in the Northwest configuration. It has
approximately 900 nm more range than the A330-300.
This added flexibility to tailor capacity to market
requirements not offered by the 777 since Boeing was
unwilling to formally offer a smaller, lower priced
version of the 777.

In summary, the excess capacity of the 777 leads to
operating economics inferior to the A330. This
situations is further degraded when the notably higher
puchase price of the 777 is factored into the
analysis. The marginal improvement in revenue the
777's size offers simply cannot overcome its increased
operating and ownership costs. Our atlantic
replacement decision does not mean that the 777 will
be excluded from future aircraft competitions. The
longer range version of hte 777-200 and 777-300 will
be evaluated against the A340-500 and A340-600 when we
begin the 747-200 replacement analysis.
The Widget Air Line :)
 
mauriceb
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 6:05 am

no, the artikel about the NWA 787 order , claims that the 787 order, among the January A330 order, will replace the last DC-10's and 747-200... i don't see any 777 order anytime soon... maybe in the far future with newer generation 777's order bigger 787's to replace the 747-400 and , when there time is done, 757's....
 
N1120A
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 6:07 am

Quoting B742 (Reply 5):
DC-10-30 ??

The fact that is says -30 means GE power. NW and JL launched the DC-10-40 that was PW powered

Quoting B742 (Reply 5):
747-200 ??

PW JT9D

Quoting B742 (Reply 5):
747-400 ??

PW4056

Quoting B742 (Reply 5):
A320 CFM?

Yes, they were teaching PW/IAE a lesson on that one

Quoting Chiawei (Reply 7):
DC-10-20(40) are PW powered

They retired the DC-10-40s as they were the oldest, shortest ranged in the fleet. The 753 replaced them
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CORULEZ05
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 6:15 am

I highly doubt it since they are ordering the 787. Although, the new livery would look AWESOME on the 777. I think NW made a good move by ordering the 787 and with all the Airbus planes coming in, I think they are set for awhile. Now if the would only retired those pesky DC-9'S!!!!
Fly jetBlue today!!!!!!!
 
Jano
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 6:19 am

Quoting CORULEZ05 (Reply 11):
Now if the would only retired those pesky DC-9'S!!!!

Why would they do that? Do you know how much it would cost to replace 150+ airframes? DC9s are here to stay for now Big grin ...and that's a good thing!
The Widget Air Line :)
 
rjpieces
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 6:21 am

Quoting Jano (Reply 8):
The
longer range version of hte 777-200 and 777-300 will
be evaluated against the A340-500 and A340-600 when we
begin the 747-200 replacement analysis.

Ahhh, nice! Anybody know when NW will need to start looking at aircraft to replace their 742s? Would 773As with Pratts work well for NW? It seems like they would be MUCH better off with 772ERs and 773ERs with GE engines......
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
N1120A
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 6:32 am

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 13):
Would 773As with Pratts work well for NW?

Not enough range and it would be a capacity reduction

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 13):
Anybody know when NW will need to start looking at aircraft to replace their 742s?

Well, they are pretty much only used for charters, HNL-NRT and LAX-NRT. NW has stated that used 744s are their favored option for 742 replacement
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
dutchjet
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 6:46 am

I am not sure why some think because NW ordered 787s they will now go out and purchase 777s as well - I do not see the connection.

NW has ordered an adequate amount of A330s to replace the DC10-30 fleet, they may be a handful of A330s short to complete the DC10 replacement program, depending on expansion over the next few years (say the long rumored MSP-CDG flight or going year round on the DTW-FCO flight) and depending on how NW operates is Hawaiian flights (will the SEA-HNL route stay with a DC10 or go back to 753 or double daily 753 equipment and how NW handles the DTW-HNL and MSP-HNL routes). I project that about 5 DC10-30s will remain in the NW fleet even after the A330 deliveries are complete - not a problem really as NW has about 5 rather new DC10s that were built in the very late 1980s.

As the 18 787s which are on firm order are delivered to NW, the last of the DC10s will finally be retired and NW will start reallocating aircraft: I would predict that most routes to/from AMS will go with the A333s, other European destinations will be flown with A332s, and the A330s will make an appearance on some Hawaiian routes. The 744s will of course remain on high-demand transpacific routes with 787s taking over "thin" transpacific routes from the A332 as well as opening up many new routes that will bypass Tokyo and Osaka....I think that we will see many new nonstops out of Detroit to destinations in China, some out of MSP and maybe even routes like SEA-HKG will make a comeback when the 787s arrive.

I dont see where NW "needs" the 772 or 773 at the moment.....NW is not going to introduce yet another type to its fleet. At some point, I think that NW may acquire between 4 and 6 additional 747-400s for its Pacific services - I know that NW has looked before and not made a move, but in the next few years I think that attractive deals will be available on good PW powered 744s that NW could add to its fleet (this may happen as some airlines, like SQ, begin accepting delivery of additional 773s and A380s).
 
Lemurs
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 6:54 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
I dont see where NW "needs" the 772 or 773 at the moment.....NW is not going to introduce yet another type to its fleet. At some point, I think that NW may acquire between 4 and 6 additional 747-400s for its Pacific services - I know that NW has looked before and not made a move, but in the next few years I think that attractive deals will be available on good PW powered 744s that NW could add to its fleet (this may happen as some airlines, like SQ, begin accepting delivery of additional 773s and A380s).

Again, the one that seems to be brushed aside in this is the 742, except in the article quoted about from NW themselves saying they're evaluate the 777 alongside the 340 as replacement craft for them. Neither the 788/789 nor the 332/333 are even remotely 1:1 replacements for a 742.

Now, I can understand if NW doesn't really see the gap between the 787/330 and 744's in their fleet as something that needs replacing directly with another type, but I'd at least like to know why...
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 6:58 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
I dont see where NW "needs" the 772 or 773 at the moment.....

Kind of stating the obvious, given that NW didn't order the 777 with the 787 in a package as other airlines have done. However, if NW does look for growth aircraft in the future, the 772LR, 777F, and 773ER are now much more appealing products. A Boeing order is much less far-fetched than it was 18 months ago.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
I am not sure why some think because NW ordered 787s they will now go out and purchase 777s as well - I do not see the connection.

Like I said above, if NW wanted 777, they would have ordered them with the 787. I think we are in agreement here. But like I said above, given the compelling economics and broader scope of the 777LR series (versus the A340NG) in addition to re-established Boeing relations... if NW looks for an aircraft in this niche in the future, it's all but garunteed to go Boeing.
 
dutchjet
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 7:08 am

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 16):

Again, the one that seems to be brushed aside in this is the 742, except in the article quoted about from NW themselves saying they're evaluate the 777 alongside the 340 as replacement craft for them. Neither the 788/789 nor the 332/333 are even remotely 1:1 replacements for a 742.

Now, I can understand if NW doesn't really see the gap between the 787/330 and 744's in their fleet as something that needs replacing directly with another type, but I'd at least like to know why...

The article above is from 2001, when NW made the decision to go with the A330 over the 777 for transatlantic operations - since then, many things have happened (in addition to the world and the airline industry drastically changing): NW revised its A333 order to include some A332s which have taken over Pacific services (that was really never anticipated), NW seems to have bought into Boeing's fragmentation theory concerning the Pacific meaning more frequency and more flights to more destinations on smaller aircraft (as evidenced by the huge number of 787 orders and options), and NW has signed up for the 787, an aircraft with capabilities not available back in 2001.

Thus, while I do see your point about the 742s, I think that the replacement of those aircraft may become a non-issue when looking at the big picture. This is why I do not see NW adding A340s or 777s to their fleet; that being said, NW may buy a small number of 744s on the second hand market as prices for the 744 soften in the coming years.

Thats my theory, I could be all wrong.
 
burnsie28
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 7:17 am

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):

About a year ago, many A.netters (including some whom I respect very much) were downright laughing at the prospect of NW ordering the 787.

Yeah, and i got torn apart for saying that they would order it.

"NW wont order, they will opt for the A350 blah blah blah"

Quoting CORULEZ05 (Reply 11):
Now if the would only retired those pesky DC-9'S!!!!

Why, dont be jealous because CO retired them Big grin
 
N1120A
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 7:20 am

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 19):
Why, dont be jealous because CO retired them

Hahahahaha, that is the funniest way anyone has dealt with that yet.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
burnsie28
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 7:24 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 20):
Hahahahaha, that is the funniest way anyone has dealt with that yet.

Glad you liked it

and uh

DC-9's FOREVER!!! Big grinD
 
777ER
Crew
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 8:15 am

Considering NW have no A340s in their fleet and the B777 is a direct competitior to the A340 then maybe B777s will be ordered instead of A340s
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jetjack74
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 8:29 am

It all comes down to price. NW is price-conscious airline. They went for the A330 because Airbus gave them to us for a song with the attractive financing. Boeing was less-than chivalrous. It's all about price. Boeing is realising that almost anything is possible as far as regaining customers. If Boeing really wants to sell NW the 777, they'll find a way.
Made from jets!
 
clrd4t8koff
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 8:37 am

Quoting Jano (Reply 12):
Why would they do that? Do you know how much it would cost to replace 150+ airframes? DC9s are here to stay for now ...and that's a good thing!

This might be an ignorant thing to say, but all it's going take is for one of those suckers to go down because of how old they're getting and watch NW re-think how easy it will be to replace 150+ airframes after they are all grounded by the FAA. They are flying some DC-9's that are 30+ years in age, and yes, while they did re-do the interiors, they are still old. But, if NW is making $$ of them, then I hope they are at least investing some of it to maintain STRICT maintenance on those antique jets, lol.
 
KC135R
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 8:48 am

Quoting CORULEZ05 (Reply 11):
Although, the new livery would look AWESOME on the 777.

Yeah, I don't know if they would or should buy it, but I think the T7 would look great in the new livery too.

Quoting CORULEZ05 (Reply 11):
Now if the would only retired those pesky DC-9'S!!!!

I'm sure you say that jokingly, but either way I flew on a NW DC-9 a few months back and, knowing the age of the plane, expected it to be pretty ragged - but it was in great shape - they really, really have taken care of those old planes. Plus, we did a powerback from the gate, which not all airplanes do, and it was awesome!!
 
atmx2000
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 9:33 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
I am not sure why some think because NW ordered 787s they will now go out and purchase 777s as well - I do not see the connection.

They wouldn't order 772As or ERs. They could order 773ERs for serving South East Asia or India.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
Lemurs
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 9:34 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 18):
Thats my theory, I could be all wrong.

Your theory makes very good sense, given the facts, thanks! Another thing I thought of is that they might want to see how the 787-10 and 350-9 play out, which might be more in line with the 742 replacement they would have in mind (and commonality) than any of the current options.

The reason I fixated on this is that the 742 slots in at 353 seats in their International config, very nicely between the 298 of the 333, and the 403 of the 744. It feels strange to me that such a large airline with so many flights and destinations might be happy with a 105 seat diff EVERYWHERE in their network.
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
 
NLINK
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 10:20 am

I think it would be good somewhere down the road if NW ordered the 777-300ER as a 747-400 replacement, then convert some of the replaced 747-400 to Freighters to replace some of the older 747-200F
 
KC135R
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 11:45 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 18):
This is why I do not see NW adding A340s or 777s to their fleet; that being said, NW may buy a small number of 744s on the second hand market as prices for the 744 soften in the coming years.

That is certainly a good possibility, judging by the past.

According to airfleets.net, NW currently flies 21 DC-10's (30's and 30ER's)
ALL of those were bought second hand, though - according to the Boeing website - they did buy 22 new DC-10-40's, none of which they own anymore.

My point is, they have some proclivity for buying older airplane second hand, so your theory seems entirely possible.

Interestingly, they did not buy any new DC-9's either, according to Boeing. I know some were gained when they acquired Republic, were the rest all bought secondhand?
 
dalfannyc
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 2:25 pm

How many 787's did NWA order??
 
KC135R
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 2:49 pm

Quoting DALfanNYC (Reply 30):
How many 787's did NWA order??

18 firm - options and purchase rights for 50 more.
 
NW727251ADV
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 3:02 pm

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 13):
Ahhh, nice! Anybody know when NW will need to start looking at aircraft to replace their 742s? Would 773As with Pratts work well for NW? It seems like they would be MUCH better off with 772ERs and 773ERs with GE engines......

What are you basing this on...particularly the last sentence. "MUCH better off with 777ERs and 773ERs" based on what performance data you've gathered??? I often wonder what some of you fellow A.netter are smoking because sometimes you all have the weirdest most illogical thinking. "Oh, just because Air Canada and Air-India ordered both the 777 & 787 must mean that everyone else will too a-duhhhhh". Come on guys, let me take you back to elementary school--"Alright children, lets put our thinking caps on". Northwest specifically ordered the A333s in favor of the 777. It has been spelled out for A.netters many a time on many a thread. And I can't really see an airline being stupid enough to order a brand new type of aircraft just to replace one particular aircraft subtype (i.e. Boeing 747-200). Some of you all should really re-read what you've written before posting.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 15):
am not sure why some think because NW ordered 787s they will now go out and purchase 777s as well - I do not see the connection.

I AGREE 1000%

[Edited 2005-05-07 08:03:43]
NWA   N O R T H W E S T A I R L I N E S
 
rjpieces
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 3:24 pm

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 32):
What are you basing this on...particularly the last sentence. "MUCH better off with 777ERs and 773ERs" based on what performance data you've gathered???

Hmmm, how about GE winning every new 777 order in the past few years except for Air New Zealand? GE engines have proven their superiority for longhaul flights on the 777. If NW were evaluating the 777 for their Pacific operation, it would make a pretty big difference if they operated with PWs or GEs. If they ordered the 773ER, they would have to use GEs and could thus order 772ERs with GEs as well, and have a pretty nice mix of aircraft for their Pacific operation.

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 32):
often wonder what some of you fellow A.netter are smoking because sometimes you all have the weirdest most illogical thinking

Try explaining to us how this is illogical. Please do.

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 32):
"Oh, just because Air Canada and Air-India ordered both the 777 & 787 must mean that everyone else will too a-duhhhhh".

The 777 and 787 are both the most superior aircraft in their respective classes. Even though they don't share commonality, having both provides an airline with great fleet capabilities. In the case of NW, operating 787s and 777s could prove to be a wonderful combination, just as it will for Air Canada and Air India (and just as operating 330s and 777s is wonderful for some airlines now, like Cathay)

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 32):
Northwest specifically ordered the A333s in favor of the 777. It has been spelled out for A.netters many a time on many a thread

They ordered 333s over PW 777s specifically for their Atlantic operations. If they were evaluating an aircraft for their Pacific operations, the 777 would most definitly be a major contender. How does the 333 vs 777 competition for the Atlantic flights have anything to do with this (their Pacific ops)?

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 32):
And I can't really see an airline being stupid enough to order a brand new type of aircraft just to replace one particular aircraft subtype (i.e. Boeing 747-200). Some of you all should really re-read what you've written before posting

I love these big egos. NW ordered the A333 to replace their DC-10 transatlantic fleet (They also replaced some DC-10s with 753s). Their are MANY examples of airlines ordering new aircraft to replace a subtype.

Also, the 773ER could conceivably replace their 747 fleet as well and give NW an amazing platform. It would not be solely to replace their 742 fleet, just as their 787 order isn't for a specific role at this point.
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 3:32 pm

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 33):
They ordered 333s over PW 777s specifically for their Atlantic operations. If they were evaluating an aircraft for their Pacific operations, the 777 would most definitly be a major contender.

AGAIN...NW SPECIFICALLY STATED why they will not be ordering the 777 anytime so IF EVER. It really had nothing to do with Atlantic or Pacific operations so before you go trying to prove someone wrong AGAIN do a FORUM SEARCH and read PAST POSTS. NW found that the 777 would provide EXCESS CAPACITY in the area of 35+ seats comapared to the A333. NW did not need the extra capacity so despite what you may say, that was the precipitating factor in NW choosing the A333 over the 777. Stop conjuring up what seems logical to you.
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 3:44 pm

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 34):
AGAIN...NW SPECIFICALLY STATED why they will not be ordering the 777 anytime so IF EVER.

Try reading NW's report: Our atlantic
replacement decision does not mean that the 777 will
be excluded from future aircraft competitions. The
longer range version of hte 777-200 and 777-300 will
be evaluated against the A340-500 and A340-600 when we
begin the 747-200 replacement analysis.


Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 34):
It really had nothing to do with Atlantic or Pacific operations so before you go trying to prove someone wrong AGAIN do a FORUM SEARCH and read PAST POSTS.

Again, in case it didn't get into your head: Our atlantic
replacement decision does not mean that the 777 will
be excluded from future aircraft competitions. The
longer range version of hte 777-200 and 777-300 will
be evaluated against the A340-500 and A340-600 when we
begin the 747-200 replacement analysis.


Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 34):
NW found that the 777 would provide EXCESS CAPACITY in the area of 35+ seats comapared to the A333.

Did you even read the report? JEEZ! They specificly said that the issue wasn't the excess seat capacity (since they were low-yielding coach seats), but the excess payload capability combined with several other factors:

Our evaluation clearly
shows that the 777-200ER aircraft has significantly
more payload-range capability than the A330-300.

However, these additional seats were
economy seats taht typically would be filled with
lower yielding passengers.

The net result to Northwest is
that the 777 is more than 41,000 pounds heavier than
the A330 yet provides minimal additional revenue
capacity.

On a typical 3,500 nm mission,
the A330 burns approximately 28% less fuel tahn a
DC-10-30; accounting for its higher seating capacity,
it burns 35% less on a per seat basis. The much
heavier 777 burns approximately 16% more fuel than the
A330 on a per trip basis, and 6% more on a per seat
basis.

This
situations is further degraded when the notably higher
puchase price of the 777 is factored into the
analysis. The marginal improvement in revenue the
777's size offers simply cannot overcome its increased
operating and ownership costs.


Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 34):
NW did not need the extra capacity so despite what you may say, that was the precipitating factor in NW choosing the A333 over the 777.

Where did I say otherwise?!!! And again, this has NOTHING to do with their Pacific requirements.

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 34):
Stop conjuring up what seems logical to you.

You've been proven wrong about everything you said in this post, and the previous post and have yet to respond. I'll wait for your replies on my previous post, unless of course you have nothing to add.
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sat May 07, 2005 3:59 pm

NW is unlikely to replace their B 747-400 ANYTIME soon. Maybe in 2025! : D

I guess they will replace them with B 747 Advanced when it comes to replacement. Or a new superjumbo
 
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 12:47 am

I agree that NW may very well order 777-300ER and perhaps sooner rather than later. The 777-300ER is a very good replacement for the 747-400s. Event if NW places an order for 777-300ER in a year or two, they may not take delivery of the first one for perhaps five years.

We will see.

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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 1:49 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 17):
given the compelling economics and broader scope of the 777LR series (versus the A340NG) in addition to re-established Boeing relations... if NW looks for an aircraft in this niche in the future, it's all but garunteed to go Boeing.

I wouldn't be too sure. There isn't much between the 773ER and the A346. NW's A330s are likely to be around for a long time (not to mention the A320s) so the A346 could fit pretty well and be a decent transpacific plane. (Yes, they'd have to take RR Trent 500s on the A346s but they'd have to take GE90-115s on the 773ERs. Even a GEnx order for their 787s wouldn't give them any particular commonality with the GE90.)

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 33):
Hmmm, how about GE winning every new 777 order in the past few years except for Air New Zealand?

You'll need to be a bit more specific than that. You can't be counting 773ERs and 772LRs because customers have no choice but GE on those. Take those out of the equation and the record (in reverse order) is;

12) Thai : 6 x 777-200ERs (RR) December 2004 (a new customer for the -200ER but an existing RR customer)

11) KLM : 2 x 777-200ER (GE) December 2004 (an existing GE customer)

10) Air New Zealand : 4 x 777-200ER (RR) August 2004 (a NEW customer)

9) Cathay : 2 x 777-300 (RR) March 2004 (an existing RR customer)

8) Korean : 9 x 777-200ER (PW) December 2003 (an existing PW customer)

7) SIA : 1 x 777-300 (RR) December 2002 (an existing RR customer)

6) PIA : 3 x 777-200ER (GE) November 2002 (a NEW customer but the 772ERs were ordered along with 5 772LR/773ERs where only GE is available so the choice of GE for the 772ERs was probably inevitable)

5) Korean : 1 x 777-200ER (PW) September 2002 (an existing PW customer)

4) KLM : 4 x 777-200ER (GE) August 2002 (a NEW customer but an airline that already has GE engines on EVERY widebody in its fleet)

3) Cathay : 3 x 777-300 (RR) May 2002 (an existing RR customer)

2) Kenya Airways : 3 x 777-200ER (RR) May 2002 (a NEW customer)

1) Vietnam Airlines : 4 x 777-200ER (PW) January 2002 (a NEW customer)

Source : Boeing's website 7th May 2005

So, back to the start of 2002 (more than three years ago) and where airlines have a choice...

RR have sold engines on 19 airframes and gained two new customers where they appear to have had a completely free choice.
GE have sold engines on 9 airframes and gained two new customers where there were compelling reasons to choose GE.
PW have sold engines on 14 airframes and gained one new customer where they appear to have had a completely free choice.

I keep reading these grand statements about GE's dominance on the 777 programme but they are simply not substantiated by the facts. Indeed, take the GE-exclusive 772LR and 773ER out of the reckoning and the RR Trent is comfortably the most popular engine with the GE90 some way behind and the PW4000 just behind GE.
 
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 2:48 am

Quoting PM (Reply 38):
I wouldn't be too sure. There isn't much between the 773ER and the A346

What do you mean by this?

Quoting PM (Reply 38):
(Yes, they'd have to take RR Trent 500s on the A346s but they'd have to take GE90-115s on the 773ERs. Even a GEnx order for their 787s wouldn't give them any particular commonality with the GE90.)

The fact that they'll have to get new engines with either the 346 or 773ER makes it more likely that they'll order the 773ER (since either way they have to get a new engine).

Quoting PM (Reply 38):
NW's A330s are likely to be around for a long time (not to mention the A320s) so the A346 could fit pretty well and be a decent transpacific plane

Except the 773ER offers superior operating costs..With the 787 order, Northwest has proven that it will go for the superior aircraft over the rational, keep your fleet the same supplier.

Hamlet69 posted the specific cost benefits of the 773ER vs the A346 and the 772LR vs the A345 a few months back but I can't seem to find them now.
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 2:57 am

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 33):
If they were evaluating an aircraft for their Pacific operations, the 777 would most definitly be a major contender. How does the 333 vs 777 competition for the Atlantic flights have anything to do with this (their Pacific ops)?

One of the main reasons they chose not to pick up 772ERs because PW powered 772ERs are restricted to 646,000 lbs. MTOW, while Trent and GE-90 powered birds are certified to the max 656,000 lbs. MTOW. This would have been an issue on DTW-Pacific ops

Quoting The777Man (Reply 37):
The 777-300ER is a very good replacement for the 747-400s.

Not at all, unless you consistantly cannot sell seats on a 744. In a typical configuration, the 773ER holds 70-100 fewer seats fewer (Boeing's numbers are WAY off on the 773ER, as are Airbus' on the A346) and has a higher seat-mile cost. The 773ER's only advantage is range
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 3:36 am

....and avaliable cargo capacity IIRC.
 
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 4:28 am

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 34):
It really had nothing to do with Atlantic or Pacific operations

...um, you must not've been reading the same report as the rest of us

Quoting PM (Reply 38):
Yes, they'd have to take RR Trent 500s on the A346s

Not necessarily.

Post 2006, if they can make a compelling approval case to Airbus/PW, they can have PW on those aircraft.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 40):
One of the main reasons they chose not to pick up 772ERs because PW powered 772ERs are restricted to 646,000 lbs.

648,000lbs
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 4:58 pm

RJpieces

Each of the points in your last reply (#39) assumes that the 773ER is demonstrably superior to the A346. Many believe that (and many want to believe it) but there are plenty of posts here on A.Net that argue that the two are pretty close. I have no technical background so I'll leave the details to others but my current reading of the collective wisdom (I use the term for want of anything better!) of A.Net is that the 772LR comprehensively outguns the A345 but that it's a much closer thing between the 773ER and the A346.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 42):
Post 2006, if they can make a compelling approval case to Airbus/PW, they can have PW on those aircraft.

In some other posts there seems to be some question over whether the date is 2006 or 2008 but the point you make is essentially correct. However, I can't see PW launching a new engine for just one customer and I question how confident PW would be of gaining sufficient business - in competition with the Trent A346 and the GE 773ER - to justify the investment. Only if PW were desperate to get back into the civil engine business and to hell with profits on this particular venture (unlikely!) could I see them taking the plunge.
 
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 5:25 pm

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 42):
Quoting N1120A (Reply 40):
One of the main reasons they chose not to pick up 772ERs because PW powered 772ERs are restricted to 646,000 lbs.

648,000lbs

Thanks Fred. I got lazy and just subtracted 10,000

Quoting PM (Reply 43):
However, I can't see PW launching a new engine for just one customer and I question how confident PW would be of gaining sufficient business

Since the PW4000 is already in the power range needed for the A345/A346, it should not be too much of an issue. In fact, there are LOTS of PW4000s in the 56,000-60,000 pound range out there.
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 5:27 pm

It seems NW is validating the Boeing model of the market. Bigger is not better. Maybe the same reason the 777 lost to the A330 is the same reason the A350 lost to the 787? In this manor the 777 may win against an Airbus proposal for the A380. Airbus may make the sales push and sell the 777 for Boeing if the history of NW purchasing trends holds true.
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 5:56 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 44):
Since the PW4000 is already in the power range needed for the A345/A346, it should not be too much of an issue. In fact, there are LOTS of PW4000s in the 56,000-60,000 pound range out there.

There are indeed but they aren't selling well these days. As for the A346, I doubt if it's as simple as you say to hang a PW4000 under the wing. If it was a quick and easy fix back in, I think, 1997, why didn't PW do it? And if they didn't do it then, why now when the market looks a lot tighter? There's more to matching an engine and an airframe than getting the thrust in lbs right. The Trent 700 and the Trent 900 are close in terms of thrust but an early proposal to put Trent 700s on the A380 quickly came to nothing. Somebody here will know better than I (where are you, Lightsaber?!) but I suspect it would not be quick or cheap to optimise a version of the PW4000 for the A346 - certainly not if PW want to comprehensively outperform the Trent 500.
 
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 6:14 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 46):
There are indeed but they aren't selling well these days. As for the A346, I doubt if it's as simple as you say to hang a PW4000 under the wing. If it was a quick and easy fix back in, I think, 1997, why didn't PW do it? And if they didn't do it then, why now when the market looks a lot tighter? There's more to matching an engine and an airframe than getting the thrust in lbs right. The Trent 700 and the Trent 900 are close in terms of thrust but an early proposal to put Trent 700s on the A380 quickly came to nothing. Somebody here will know better than I (where are you, Lightsaber?!) but I suspect it would not be quick or cheap to optimise a version of the PW4000 for the A346 - certainly not if PW want to comprehensively outperform the Trent 500.

I agree that this is not such a simple thing, but the PW4000 does do quite well on more than just 747/767s. They also use it up to 98,000 pounds (granted the PW4098 is a POS) and it is downright brilliant on the 772A. Also, the PW4062 is actually quite a good, advanced engine that would likely do well on the A345/A346 if needed.
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RE: Northwest Likely To Order 777 Now?

Sun May 08, 2005 6:30 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 47):
I agree that this is not such a simple thing, but the PW4000 does do quite well on more than just 747/767s. They also use it up to 98,000 pounds (granted the PW4098 is a POS) and it is downright brilliant on the 772A. Also, the PW4062 is actually quite a good, advanced engine that would likely do well on the A345/A346 if needed.

Oh yes, many of the PW4000 range are fine engines and they have sold well. But to customise a new version for the A346 wouldn't be easy, quick or cheap.

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