DLKAPA
Topic Author
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Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:11 am

The other UA hubs have enough airlines covering the gaps, but DEN and IAD will be left relatively out cold, save for DEN which has F9 but F9 really only covers the larger cities, no inter-colorado commuter save Great Mistakes, and IAD has, well, Indy.

Don't get me wrong I'm not wishing doom and gloom on UA, I know alot of good people who work for them and who have worked for them, but it's clear now that something is gonna give somewhere.

It looks like all or most of the TED fleet is being leased and possibly slated for reposession, and that would hurt UA hard. Also, the 767s that are leased would account for how much of UA's longhaul (almost if not all of it)?

Keeping my fingers crossed, but how do you guys think DEN and IAD will come through the storm?
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
Newark777
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:14 am

Anybody think that CO would try and establish a presence back in Denver if UA were to meet its demise? If it were to happen, it would be interesting to see how the other legacies would react to an increased CO presence in the West.

BTW Funny you should mention this, because Tommy767 and I were talking about this very subject in school today.  Silly

Harry
Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
 
azstar
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:17 am

Don't write UA off yet. They will probably be around for a long time, in spite of their financial situation and strike threats. How many years did TWA operate under bankruptcy protection?
 
artsyman
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:19 am

Quoting Newark777 (Reply 1):
Anybody think that CO would try and establish a presence back in Denver if UA were to meet its demise?

Continental already has a contingency in place if such an event were to take place and would be in there virtually immedately.

J
 
DLKAPA
Topic Author
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:20 am

Would they really be able to go "Poof" and all the UA signage would be replaced by CO signage and all the employees of UA be given CO clothing overnight? Ok I'm talking out my ass...

A 2 week conversion might be a bit more forseable, but what about the commuter flights to intra-colorado destinations (ASE comes to mind, CO doesn't have the equipment to go there).
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
azstar
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:24 am

In the unlikely event that UA were to disappear and CO were to take over in DEN, it would cause a major shake-up at F9. Frontier is an insifignificant airline, size wise, and CO would likely be a much more agressive competitor. F9 might be forced to merge (with CO maybe?) or be pushed out altogether.
 
FlyingTexan
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:27 am

Continental CEO Larry Kellner briefly addressed this in April at the FlyerTalk affair. He said CO would love to have a western hub. The City of Denver sent a delegation to Houston with a question of if something were to happen with UAL. CO said they don’t want to pay the high leases associated with DEN.

Also, Kellner specifically went out of his way to ‘not wish any folks at UAL ill will.’
"Wouldn't your boss like to fly home nonstop at 4:30 on a Friday afternoon?" -Airline Exec to Congressional Staffer
 
FA4UA
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:28 am

Why would UA go under now? We've slashed our costs by $5 Billion a year and now another $675 million more in savings since the Pensions are gone. The unions have no legal right to strike since it was a legal change done in court, so without a total shut-down, it's business as usual (dysfunctional as normal, but still normal!)

We now are set to be the best in class for our CASM... We're now looking like a hotter commodity then ever to the Street.

FA4UA
The debate continues... Starwood or Hyatt... which is better
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:28 am

Quoting Azstar (Reply 5):
F9 might be forced to merge (with CO maybe?)

Now that hasn't happened already, has it?  Wink
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
DLKAPA
Topic Author
Posts: 7962
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:28 am

Quoting Azstar (Reply 5):
In the unlikely event that UA were to disappear and CO were to take over in DEN, it would cause a major shake-up at F9. Frontier is an insifignificant airline, size wise, and CO would likely be a much more agressive competitor. F9 might be forced to merge (with CO maybe?) or be pushed out altogether.

I guess that's why CO helped F9 off the ground in the early years then?
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
BOSPMV
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:30 am

why did CO dismantle their DEN hub?
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:31 am

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 4):
Ok I'm talking out my ass...

Probably the only accurate statement in this entire thread. But, you're a 16-20 airline CEO, so you must know more than I do...

Mods: how about deleting this thread?
And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
F9HNLPLZ
Posts: 102
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:32 am

Quoting Azstar (Reply 5):
In the unlikely event that UA were to disappear and CO were to take over in DEN, it would cause a major shake-up at F9. Frontier is an insifignificant airline, size wise, and CO would likely be a much more agressive competitor. F9 might be forced to merge (with CO maybe?) or be pushed out altogether

Ah, I don't think so bud. F9 has built a loyal base here and is really making a difference in DEN. True, we are not as big as the others, we still know how to treat customers and they truley love us. Don't discount the little guys, they do a great job getting things done.
Frontier Airlines, A Whole Different Animal. Maybe some day to Hawaii???
 
DLKAPA
Topic Author
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:35 am

Quoting Stevenuhl777 (Reply 12):
Probably the only accurate statement in this entire thread. But, you're a 16-20 airline CEO, so you must know more than I do...

Mods: how about deleting this thread?

I havent seen you saying anything constructive yet, care to own up?

[Edited 2005-05-11 04:35:48]

[Edited 2005-05-11 04:36:29]
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
Newark777
Posts: 8284
Joined: Thu Dec 02, 2004 6:23 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:43 am

Quoting StevenUhl777 (Reply 11):
Probably the only accurate statement in this entire thread. But, you're a 16-20 airline CEO, so you must know more than I do...

Mods: how about deleting this thread?

Silly DLKAPA, everyone knows that if you are under the age of 25 you aren't allowed to post anything on these forums.  Yeah sure

Harry
Why grab a Heine when you can grab a Busch?
 
DLKAPA
Topic Author
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Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 10:37 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:45 am

Quoting Newark777 (Reply 14):
Silly DLKAPA, everyone knows that if you are under the age of 25 you aren't allowed to post anything on these forums.

Oh that's right, I guess that $25 bucks I paid wasn't worth anything...Btw Uhl777, How much did you pay?

Now seriously, if UA were to move and CO didn't come back in (this is all what-if here), who do you think would take up an empty concourse at DEN?
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
galapagapop
Posts: 861
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2005 2:15 pm

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:48 am

Quoting FA4UA (Reply 7):
Why would UA go under now? We've slashed our costs by $5 Billion a year and now another $675 million more in savings since the Pensions are gone. The unions have no legal right to strike since it was a legal change done in court, so without a total shut-down, it's business as usual (dysfunctional as normal, but still normal!)

We now are set to be the best in class for our CASM... We're now looking like a hotter commodity then ever to the Street.

FA4UA

And yet they still need more cuts. Mmmmm...  scratchchin 

I'll agree once I see the black...
 
Capt.Fantastic
Posts: 811
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 1999 4:01 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 11:51 am

These "what ifs" will happen when Pigs are doing simulateous ILS approaches

United is not going to atrophy its hubs.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 12360
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 12:01 pm

I wonder when I turn on the news Wednesday morning (I live in the NYC area) that there will be reports of UA flights grounded all over the country due to CHAOS, or more massive job actions by key UA employees pissed off at the airline due to the pensions crash. If there is heavy job actions at places in DEN, ORD, IAD then the beginning of the end of UA may be here.  weeping 
 
commavia
Posts: 9622
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 12:05 pm

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 18):
I wonder when I turn on the news Wednesday morning (I live in the NYC area) that there will be reports of UA flights grounded all over the country due to CHAOS, or more massive job actions by key UA employees pissed off at the airline due to the pensions crash.

I doubt that will happen, as I think that if AFA has not begun CHAOS by now, hours after the ruling, their threats are pretty much empty and won't be carried out.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 18):
If there is heavy job actions at places in DEN, ORD, IAD then the beginning of the end of UA may be here.

If that is what is on the news tomorrow morning, then yes, the end of UA will be upon us. UA is financially dangling from a very thin thread and any major, or even sporadic CHAOS, job action, would pretty much spell the end.

For UA's employees' sake, let's hope that is not on the news tomorrow morning.
 
DLKAPA
Topic Author
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 12:17 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 19):
I doubt that will happen, as I think that if AFA has not begun CHAOS by now, hours after the ruling, their threats are pretty much empty and won't be carried out

I wouldn't say that, but if it hasn't happened by 6AM EST tomorrow, you're probably right, and if it hasn't happened by noon tomorrow, you're definetly right.
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
Falcon84
Posts: 13775
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 12:22 pm

Quoting BOSPMV (Reply 10):
why did CO dismantle their DEN hub?

Simple: CO was losing in excess of $100,000,000 annually there for quite a while. DEN can handle one major hub (UA), and a relatively smaller one (F9), but really isn't set up to handle two large hubs. CO just wasn't making money there.

Now, in a scenario where UA left the scene, CO obviously thinks the economics would be different than it was when CO pulled the hub from Stapleton.
Work Right, Fly Hard
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 12:42 pm

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 4):
A 2 week conversion might be a bit more forseable, but what about the commuter flights to intra-colorado destinations (ASE comes to mind, CO doesn't have the equipment to go there).

UA will not any longer have equipment to serve ASE either... they're doing away with AWAC, and ASE travellers won't want a DH8.

Quoting Azstar (Reply 5):
Frontier is an insifignificant airline, size wise, and CO would likely be a much more agressive competitor.

Um, United is the second largest airline in the world.... CO could divert resources, but not as many as UA has there now. CO is not in any way, shape, or form a more aggressive competitor.

N
 
nosedive
Posts: 2176
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 2:18 pm

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 12:48 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 22):
UA will not any longer have equipment to serve ASE either... they're doing away with AWAC, and ASE travellers won't want a DH8.

Well it's not like they have much of a choice... save NW.
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 12:51 pm

The average ASE passenger doesn't fly UA anyway...  Smile

N
 
DLKAPA
Topic Author
Posts: 7962
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 10:37 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 12:55 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 24):
The average ASE passenger doesn't fly UA anyway...

The numbers say otherwise. Also, There are many cities in colorado that have gone down to Dash 8 only service in the past few years and they still manage to fill the plane up.
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
MAH4546
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 1:01 pm

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 25):
Quoting Gigneil (Reply 24):
The average ASE passenger doesn't fly UA anyway...

The numbers say otherwise. Also, There are many cities in colorado that have gone down to Dash 8 only service in the past few years and they still manage to fill the plane up.

That's not what he meant...he was referring to private jets.
a.
 
AA777
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 1:51 pm

So nobody has addressed who would take over IAD since it is mostly UA that operates there. It would be a shame if UA stopped ops, esp in IAD, where I really think they are the best fit.

American? No...they would be busy taking over ORD.
Delta? Maybe.
Continental? More likely to return to DEN than build a hub at IAD.
Northwest? I hope not...(Sorry all you NW fans.... I hear the service is...not good)
USairways? MAYBE...if UA goes under then USairways has a much much better chance of getting back into the black. Their large presence at DCA might spread to IAD?

I would personally want AA to come, since they have the most flights and biggest network in the US.... but then again, I am biased

-AA777  Smile
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24517
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 2:02 pm

Quoting AA777 (Reply 27):
So nobody has addressed who would take over IAD since it is mostly UA that operates there. It would be a shame if UA stopped ops, esp in IAD, where I really think they are the best fit.

Well, flyi of course.  Wink
a.
 
aa777jr
Posts: 2269
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RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 2:18 pm

DEN-CO
IAD-AA

This is all gonna happen when UA goes outta business on June 1st.  Smile

Regards.
Nostradomas
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
Kahala777
Posts: 1513
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2005 7:28 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 2:36 pm

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 4):
employees of UA be given CO clothing overnight?

Why would Continental Airlines want bitter ex-United Airline employees?

 grumpy 

Quoting FA4UA (Reply 7):
Why would UA go under now?

 tombstone 

*Because your airline, United Airlines, has been mis-managed for over a decade.

*Because certain United Airlines Flight Attendants think think WI-FI is more important than employee pensions  Wink

*Because United Airlines Flight Attendants threaten to strike and they decide not to because they are to afraid to stand up for their rights.

*Because United Airlines has dropped most of its lucrative traffic.

*Because United Airlines has had to surrender more and more of its traffic to competitors Continenetal Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Jet Blue.

*Because United Airlines has had to drop more international cities than any other U.S. airline.

*Because United Airlines was forced out of Miami, Boston, and Newark International markets. And reduced to very little International flying from JFK and Seattle.

*Because United Airlines, is dying little by little each day!

*...and lastly, because United Airlines is more of a mess than US and TZ combined!

 tombstone 

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 22):
United is the second largest airline in the world

And it drops in size by the day! By the Way, it was Delta Airlines at last check!

 melting 

Regards - Kahala777
 
aa777jr
Posts: 2269
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2004 12:03 pm

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 3:23 pm

Quoting Kahala777 (Reply 30):
And it drops in size by the day! By the Way, it was Delta Airlines at last check!

Hope all your slanderous quotes are correct. Your opening yourself up to a lot of flamming guy.  Smile If UA blew up on June 1, I would compare the heartache (of the industry) to 9.11.01. I really don't want it to happen.

Regards.
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
DLKAPA
Topic Author
Posts: 7962
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 10:37 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 3:23 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 26):

That's not what he meant...he was referring to private jets.

I'm aware of that, hence why I said the numbers say otherwise. Correct me if I'm wrong but 2x100 seat ARJ's to DEN plus the same number to LA plus a slough of DH2s, thats several hundred passengers daily, doesn't compare much to bizjets.
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
nosedive
Posts: 2176
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 2:18 pm

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Wed May 11, 2005 4:55 pm

Quoting AA777 (Reply 27):
Delta? Maybe.

I really don't see how 3 hubs East of the Mississippi or 2 hubs with-in a days drive of one another will help DL...
 
DLKAPA
Topic Author
Posts: 7962
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 10:37 am

RE: Let The Predictions Begin, DEN And IAD.

Sat May 14, 2005 3:09 pm

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 33):
I really don't see how 3 hubs East of the Mississippi or 2 hubs with-in a days drive of one another will help DL...

What's the third hub?
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same

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