lazyshaun
Posts: 550
Joined: Sat May 07, 2005 5:50 am

If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 6:41 am

Because of this deal with the US and the UK, there can only be 2 airlines operating to the US from LHR (BA & VS) , and 2 US airlines at LHR. BUT, if UA go bust, who will become the next US airline in LHR, or does it not work like that?
I'm not saying UA will go bust, but IF they do...  Wink
Although, it may take a while before they properly stop, and judging by the state of the 6 mains in the US, it could be any of them...

-lazyshaun-
I came. I saw. I conquered
 
ZKOJH
Posts: 1446
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:51 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 6:43 am

US AIRWAYS, NORTHWEST, Southwest Airlines lol  Wink
Vietnam time..
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 6:44 am

They most likely would be sold to the highest bidder and the funds will be used to pay UA's massive debts.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
lazyshaun
Posts: 550
Joined: Sat May 07, 2005 5:50 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 6:44 am

Northwest would probably jump at the chance actually...

-lazyshaun-
I came. I saw. I conquered
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 6:50 am

Well, needless to say, I think it is very difficult to tell. No doubt, when or if (though I doubt it will happen) UA's slots and route authorities to LHR become available, an international diplomatic lobbying campaign and political pressure exertion will be at a level never before witnessed in the history of international civil aviation.

There are four US carriers that want at those slots: Continental, Delta, Northwest and USAirways. Of those, CO and DL have perhaps the best chances of getting meaningful, large access to LHR in the event of a UA collapse, as both are significantly larger at Gatwick than NW or US.

However, this is completely dependant on whether the US and UK governments can agree on the terms of another US carrier servicing Heathrow. Back in 1991, when AA assumed TW's former route authorities and UA assumed PA's, the UK government made it clear that it was a one-time, "special" arrangement not to be repeated.

That being said, I doubt that the UK would truly stick out and completely refuse to allow at least one other US carrier, in some form or another, to operate their own metal to LHR as the UK now has two carriers flying LHR-US, namely British Airways and Virgin Atlantic. In addition, the UK government may -- and I stress may -- be seen at a slight negotiation disadvantage relative to their bargaining position fourteen years ago because the US and the whole world knows that the EU is pressing harder and harder to abrogate all US bilaterals with European powers and that any agreement made today between the US and British governments could be null and void tomorrow.

Bottom line: in the very unlikely event of a UA shutdown and the subsequent availability of their LHR slots and authorities, the likelihood is that at least one American carrier, and perhaps more (although unlikely), would be given access to LHR using UA's slots after intense and incessant international diplomatic and legal wrangling from both sides of the pond.
 
DAL767400ER
Posts: 5084
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:47 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 6:51 am

I'm not 100% sure, but I believe Continental has first rights on any vacated LHR slots, should either UA or AA leave the market. Needless to say, I'd prefer seeing Delta get these slots  Wink .
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 6:55 am

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 5):
I'm not 100% sure, but I believe Continental has first rights on any vacated LHR slots, should either UA or AA leave the market.

Nope. Unlike with many other international aviation route authorities, LHR rights have no official backups, as technically there are no other carriers with the legal right to fly from the United States to Heathrow but AA, UA, BA and VS. Bermuda II, the arrangement under which current LHR rights exist, stipulates that only these four carriers or their "corporate successors" may service LHR-United States routes. And, as was seen in 1991, determining for the world exactly what constitutes a "corporate successor" is an extremely difficult and intensely political process.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 5):
Needless to say, I'd prefer seeing Delta get these slots

Well, CO is significantly larger at LGW than DL, but no doubt these two carriers would be the immediate frontrunners in any bid to succeed at UA at LHR. But, as I said, I doubt this will ever come to pass as I don't think UA is going to collapse any time soon.
 
Thrust
Posts: 2584
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:17 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:04 am

I think that is correct, DAL767400ER. When I was at LHR in at on January 3rd, 2003, I remember seeing a sign for Continental Airlines...likely Continental would be able to pick up LHR slots first...DL is a bit iffy....I think NW might have a better chance because they are not so concentrated in one city like DL is. In addition, they have several aircraft to choose on those routes...DL is limited to 8 Boeing 777s and their 767-300ER fleet....I think the 763ER is too small for most of the LHR routes, and it lacks the range to fly to London from the west coast nonstop. DL has focused almost all of its flights exclusively out of Atlanta, with the exception of their SLC hub. CO is in a much better position to operate the routes than DL, especially considering DL's fleet is mostly 767s, and from what I'm seeing the LHR slots demand at least several Boeing 777s or A330s at the smallest possible plane size...CO could better serve the routes than DL at this point. I don't see why NW does not have a shot at LHR....they are more flexible than DL, and have the A330s to do the LHR routes. Simply put, DL isn't flexible enough to do the LHR slots in my opinion. They are too concentrated in ATL and are too limited in Boeing 777s to do the routes. (Besides, LAX-LHR, SAN-LHR, and SFO-LHR all demand the range of a 777....DL has only 8 Boeing 777s right now, and they are already working hard enough. The only way DL could actually begin operating these routes efficiently would be to configure their 764ERs, which I doubt they'll do. these routes demand airplanes bigger than the 767-300ER...currently DL has few aircraft able to do the routes from the west coast.
Fly one thing; Fly it well
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:18 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 6):
Bermuda II, the arrangement under which current LHR rights exist, stipulates that only these four carriers or their "corporate successors" may service LHR-United States routes. And, as was seen in 1991, determining for the world exactly what constitutes a "corporate successor" is an extremely difficult and intensely political process.

Yes I seem to recall....

...though I'm also pretty sure DAL767400ER is correct in that CO does have a litigatory advantage as per the same legislation that allowed it to codeshare with VS nonstop from the mainland also specifies it has 1st dibs should A) B-II be amended or C) another USA carrier default in entirity.

Mendis showed me something about this a few years back, let's see if he'll chime in.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
levg79
Posts: 918
Joined: Sat Sep 27, 2003 10:59 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:21 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 6):
the arrangement under which current LHR rights exist, stipulates that only these four carriers or their "corporate successors" may service LHR-United States routes

If that was true, only VS, BA, AA, and UA would be operating LHR-United States. Then how is the following possible?:

Kuwait 101,102 (LHR-JFK)
Air India 111,112 (LHR-JFK)
Air New Zealand 1,2 (LHR-LAX)

There might be more, this is just off the top of my head
A mile of runway takes you to the world. A mile of highway takes you a mile.
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:22 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 8):
though I'm also pretty sure DAL767400ER is correct in that CO does have a litigatory advantage as per the same legislation that allowed it to codeshare with VS nonstop from the mainland also specifies it has 1st dibs should A) B-II be amended or C) another USA carrier default in entirity.

I'm not aware of the stipulation you speak of, but I will take your word for it. However, I think CO would probably be the leading candidate for LHR access anyway, regardless of whether they have a preexisting legal right, as they are the largest US carrier at LGW.
 
HPRamper
Posts: 4588
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 4:22 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:22 am

Quoting Thrust (Reply 7):
DL has focused almost all of its flights exclusively out of Atlanta, with the exception of their SLC hub

I thought CVG was their second hub?
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:24 am

Quoting Levg79 (Reply 9):
If that was true, only VS, BA, AA, and UA would be operating LHR-United States. Then how is the following possible?

My apologies. I should have been more clear. This agreement only covers access to LHR by American and British carriers. The British government has throughout time granted access to several other countries' carriers for rights from Heathrow onward to the United States, like Kuwait Airways, Air India, Air New Zealand, etc. as you said.
 
DAL767400ER
Posts: 5084
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:47 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:40 am

Quoting Thrust (Reply 7):
DL is limited to 8 Boeing 777s and their 767-300ER fleet

The total of the 763ER stands at 59, out of which 51 are currently being used for international flights.

Quoting Thrust (Reply 7):
I think the 763ER is too small for most of the LHR routes,

204 seats is an appropriate number. AA's 777s don't have that many more seats, which is due to the fact that AA has significantly more First/Business seats.

Quoting Thrust (Reply 7):
and it lacks the range to fly to London from the west coast nonstop.

Delta has operated FRA-LAX with the 763ER before, so range is no issue.

Quoting Thrust (Reply 7):
DL has focused almost all of its flights exclusively out of Atlanta, with the exception of their SLC hub.

If you mean European flights, replace SLC with JFK, and to a extent CVG. In total, ATL is the biggest hub for DL, followed by CVG and SLC.

Quoting Thrust (Reply 7):
CO is in a much better position to operate the routes than DL, especially considering DL's fleet is mostly 767s, and from what I'm seeing the LHR slots demand at least several Boeing 777s or A330s at the smallest possible plane size...CO could better serve the routes than DL at this point.

The A330 is basically in the same seating range as the 763. And CO is stretched with planes as well. They need all their 777s for the flights to Asia, and the largest planes CO could free up, thanks to more 757s across the pond, would be their 764ERs, which seat 40 seats less than their 777, iirc.
About DL being limited with their resources, let's do some speculation on what DL *could* do.
First, they could pull their 777s on ATL-CDG and CVG-CDG and replace them with 763ERs, freeing up the 777s for LHR. The capacity drop will be taken car of by AF plane upgrades (773s to ATL and CVG  Wink ). Of course, this requires 3 763ERs. Well,let's have AZ operate the 2nd daily FCO-ATL flight, and you have one. FRA needs the 777 capacity, so you can't pull that one. However, you can still pull the one off ATL-MXP, have a 763ER there, and a new AZ flight to ATL. With these changes DL would have 4 777s for LHR, as well as 5 763ERs, for a total of 9 flights. Not to mention, it would be very likely that DL would reduce their 4x daily ATL-LGW service, by 2 flights, so LHR could be served 11x daily, and that without even converting any 764ERs.
Of course, this is all still a fantasy of an armchair CEO, but in aviation, anything can happen Big grin .
 
sllevin
Posts: 3312
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 1:57 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:46 am

The Heathrow slots are highly coveted and the slaes of those rights by UA will be one of the two core pieces that UA, much like Pan Am, will sell off prior to a bankruptcy in order to raise capital to continue operations. (The other pieces being the Japan rights).

Expect a bidding war. Heathrow is so coveted that any of the other majors will certainly take mortgages on their mothers and grandmothers, if not sell them outright. In the FlyerTalk weekend in Houston, Larry Kellner of CO was clear that Heathrow the thing he really wannts -- that it commands a 30 percent premium over Gatwick.

That said, I'd look for NW, which is in the best financial shape, to really put down the big bucks and come away the winner, but it'll be a giant poker game.

Steve
 
PVD757
Posts: 3021
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:23 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:47 am

I personally think that it will be tied up in negotiation for the imediate future. The EU has been trying to take control of all agreements between the US and Europe. I'm sure they will have last say as to who gets the rights. I wouldn't be surprised they try to screw the US airlines over and give them to BMI.
 
Planesmart
Posts: 1717
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 3:18 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 7:52 am

If UA were to go bust, it would be managed in such a way that assets, including rights are retained under a UA or approved alternate banner, by ensuring 'trigger' events for relinquishing them, are not activated.

Do you not think that lawyers on both sides of the Atlantic haven't already looked at how this can be done, in such a way that it cannot be successfully challenged?

UA's ultimate marriage partners may well be one or more of the airlines that aspire to those slots anyway.
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2563
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 8:14 am

If the availability of widebody aircraft is the issue, NW would be only one running, as they have more A330s on the way and the DC-10 retirement can be pushed back.

There's significant seat gap between the 763 & 333. NW has 298 seats compared to low 200s,

If UA were to go bust, BA would absolutely reap rewards with increased flying at least the core UA hubs like SFO, ORD & IAD. VS would upsize on those routes where it competes with UA but is limited on the number of slots.
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 8:19 am

This whole discussion about whether CO, DL, NW or any other airline has aircraft of appropriate size or the sufficient availability of such aircraft is pretty much a moot point. If any US carrier, and particularly CO and DL -- which have lobbied so long and so hard for access to LHR -- was given the right to land their metal at Heathrow, I am fairly certain that they would make the planes available even if they had to cut somewhere else. The opportunity to fly to LHR, arguably the most prestigous, high-yield and reliably profitable market on Earth, only comes along very seldomly. CO and DL would jump at the chance to fly their 767s, 777s or whatever else to LHR, no matter what it had to juggle around with its network to make it happen. LHR is just way too important!
 
LAXDESI
Posts: 2775
Joined: Sat May 14, 2005 8:13 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 8:24 am

Does the Bermuda 2 restrict the total no. of seats or the restriction strictly for no. of flights between USA/UK? If restriction is strictly on no. of flights, then why isn't every carrier using 747-400?
 
FA4B6
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 3:00 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 9:28 am

Well since Airbus is so hot to give B6 330's ... I say B6 should enter the bidding war ... get a few 330's, and give it a run ...

 duck   duck   duck   duck 
"Leap! And the net will appear."
 
User avatar
Richard28
Posts: 1619
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 5:42 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slot

Wed May 18, 2005 9:37 am

Quoting Levg79 (Reply 9):
If that was true, only VS, BA, AA, and UA would be operating LHR-United States. Then how is the following possible?:

Kuwait 101,102 (LHR-JFK)
Air India 111,112 (LHR-JFK)
Air New Zealand 1,2 (LHR-LAX)

There is a clause within Bermuda II which allows the UK to allow rights for foreign airlines to fly from LHR to the States - but no more than 2 British airlines.

In addition to the flights you quoted CX are getting LHR-JFK rights soon (this was agreed at the same time VS was granted HKG-SYD operations).

Rich.
 
ripcordd
Posts: 1032
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2000 1:12 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 10:07 am

If UA would go out of business they first would start selling off the LHR slots which will goto the highest bidding even if that means no other US carrier is allowed to fly into LHR. You would see Virgin/BA/AA probably buy most of the slots to keep out the competion. And just like LHR you have the NRT slots which are like gold also. And in the NRT case you would prob see JL/NW/ANA buy most of those slots to keep out competition there as well. The slots are almost priceless
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2613
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 10:44 am

Quoting Thrust (Reply 7):
DL is a bit iffy....I think NW might have a better chance because they are not so concentrated in one city like DL is.

What are you talking about? If DL got LHR access expect to see at least ATL-LHR, CVG-LHR, JFK-LHR, BOS-LHR, FLL-LHR, and more if they could. CO would simply do the usual IAH-LHR and EWR-LHR. Since when has DL been too dependant on ATL? They have three European gateways, ATL, CVG, and JFK. BOS also was for a short time in 2001.

Jeremy
 
exFATboy
Posts: 1887
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2003 11:15 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 10:50 am

Quoting FA4B6 (Reply 20):
Well since Airbus is so hot to give B6 330's ... I say B6 should enter the bidding war ... get a few 330's, and give it a run ...

I love it...boarding one of these to London:


Seriously, I don't think HMG or the US Antitrust Division would look kindly on having the number of US/UK airlines serving LHR drop from four to three. And I'd guess that if AA ever wants a shot at getting immunity from antitrust for the BA hook-up, they'd pass on bidding.

Most likely outcome? Either CO or NW, and since either one would represent SkyTeam, I suspect they'd work out in advance who would bid. (Wouldn't be surprised if they've already informally decided this between them.)

Of course, you could have some wild card...if they've got their financing in line, perhaps Primaris might change their business plan around to take advantage of the opportunity? (Their website claims that they intend to start flying to London in 2Q/2007. This, of course, presumes they ever start at all...)

Actually, if the US airlines believe that Bermuda II will be superceded by a EU-wide agreement with the US, the bidding war might not amount to that much anyway.
 
usair330
Posts: 691
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2002 12:48 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 11:42 am

Any chance that US Airways would have a better chance of getting these slots since they are part of the Star Alliance, or no?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24522
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Wed May 18, 2005 11:47 am

Quoting USAir330 (Reply 25):
Any chance that US Airways would have a better chance of getting these slots since they are part of the Star Alliance, or no?

If they put in the highest bid. UA isn't going to accept a lower bid because they are "friends".
a.
 
Thrust
Posts: 2584
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:17 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 1:16 am

US Airways already flies to LHR, correct? I thought they do PHL-LHR with an A330?
Fly one thing; Fly it well
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 1:20 am

Quoting Thrust (Reply 27):
US Airways already flies to LHR, correct? I thought they do PHL-LHR with an A330?

Unfortunately for them, no they don't. They have a daily A330 PHL-LGW and a daily A330 PHL-CLT. US does, however, desperately want to fly to LHR, just like about every other major US carrier.
 
lazyshaun
Posts: 550
Joined: Sat May 07, 2005 5:50 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 1:36 am

Wouldn't it be great if Pan Am bought UA, and Pan Am aircraft would once again be at LHR....

 bigthumbsup 

Anyway, back to reality, AA is bigger at LHR than UA, but UA still has many daily flights, nearly all with the 777, and sometimes a 744. Like people have been saying, DL simply has not got that capasity, nor have many others. I think Northwest would be most likely, in terms of a/c to do the slots.

-lazyshaun-
I came. I saw. I conquered
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 11375
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 1:59 am

It's interesting that all or nearly all US-LHR flying now is done with a 3-class product. That would surely change under any of the scenarios being discussed here unless one of the US majors did some serious configuration changing.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
IADLHR
Posts: 612
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2005 10:25 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 2:00 am

Lets not forget that whatever US carrier ended up with the LHR slots, they would have some available aircraft as they would be dropping LGW in favor of LHR. That would free up some aircraft for the LHR flights.
I agree that to keep in good graces with the US ATI, when they want it, AA will sit on the sidelines for the UA slots.
There is no way that the US will allow BD to fly the UA routes as Bermuda II only allows 2 British carriers.If BD and the UK want to try it, they can be stopped and only an Openskies will allow it.
 
akelley728
Posts: 1964
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 1999 12:35 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 2:04 am

Quoting Thrust (Reply 7):
When I was at LHR in at on January 3rd, 2003, I remember seeing a sign for Continental Airlines...likely Continental would be able to pick up LHR slots first..

The reason you saw signs for Continental at LHR is because CO code-shares with VS from LHR.
 
akelley728
Posts: 1964
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 1999 12:35 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 2:14 am

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 13):
And CO is stretched with planes as well. They need all their 777s for the flights to Asia, and the largest planes CO could free up, thanks to more 757s across the pond, would be their 764ERs, which seat 40 seats less than their 777, iirc.

Currently CO flies 777s 2x daily to LGW. If CO were to get LHR I could see them immediately moving the 777s over to LHR, and LGW going all 752.
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 2:41 am

Quoting AKelley728 (Reply 33):
Currently CO flies 777s 2x daily to LGW. If CO were to get LHR I could see them immediately moving the 777s over to LHR, and LGW going all 752.

I doubt if CO would even still fly to LGW if they had the chance to fly to LHR. Nobody high-yielding business traveler worth their wallet in F tickets and high-end FF accrual would readily choose LGW over LHR. (Okay, okay, there are some who prefer LGW's less congested atmosphere and proximity to South London, but still, the vast majority of business travelers want LHR.
 
Zone1
Posts: 894
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2005 4:47 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 2:58 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 23):
BOS also was for a short time in 2001.

It would be nice to see DL bring back European flights from BOS, but with the MassPort not letting terminal A have customs, I doubt we will see DL flying to Europe any time soon. On terms of gateways, you are right, DL could fly from more places to LHR. I think the DOD would look favorably on this fact. If they got LHR access, they might try to speed up delivery of their 777s that they still have on order. I really think we a long ways away from seeing United liquidate completely, so in this scenario DL would probably be in bankruptcy also. At the time that UA is forced to sell their LHR rights, the last major standing would be the one to get them, so I say NW. They are in a better position than CO, IMHO.
/// U N I T E D
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 3:05 am

Quoting Zone1 (Reply 35):
It would be nice to see DL bring back European flights from BOS, but with the MassPort not letting terminal A have customs, I doubt we will see DL flying to Europe any time soon.

I agree. I don't know where DL could fly in Europe from BOS. LGW is out for the obvious reasons -- the same reasons it failed the first time -- no high-yielding passengers want to go to Gatwick, only vacationers. European SkyTeam hubs at AMS and CDG are already well covered by SkyTeam partners NW and AF, respectively, and AZ also flies BOS-FCO and BOS-MXP. What's left?

Quoting Zone1 (Reply 35):
If they got LHR access, they might try to speed up delivery of their 777s that they still have on order.

True. If DL was given LHR access, I think that would be a huge motivation to speed up 777 deliveries.
 
mcdu
Posts: 895
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 3:08 am

Who is going to take AA's slots at LHR when they go under?
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 3:13 am

Quoting Mcdu (Reply 37):
Who is going to take AA's slots at LHR when they go under?

You're kidding, right?
 
as739x
Posts: 4995
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2003 7:23 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 3:24 am

JetBlue to LHR with A330....LMAO

B6 is going to get themselves in hot water if they brought on the A330. They have a great domestic product, but passenger will go the way of other crossing the pond. IMHO. Second, B6 doesn't serve SFO,ORD,and LAX so that wouldn't work out well. Its a pipe dream!

ASSFO
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
whitehatter
Posts: 5180
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 6:52 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 3:35 am

Some speculation...

CO might not be too interested. They are currently padding their regional services, and benefitting from interception of UK passengers at their points of departure.

Any new carrier on the LHR route would need either good onward connectivity or to develop their own O&D services. CO has both bases covered by serving LGW and also departures from all over the United Kingdom.

Which leaves the other two big players, DL and NW. Northwest would be a strong bidder, but DL also has some interesting non-Skyteam connections with other carriers who operate from LHR.

Due to existing non-alliance contracts with the other player in this arrangement, Virgin Atlantic, DL could be hampered by some of the rules of Bermuda Two which apply to the AA/BA side. That would be something that needed looking into as VS and its holiday company arm use DL services from other airports, and there would need to be a prohibition on some activity similar to what OneWorld has to operate under.

A relationship with BD is a key factor in who could take on the vacant fourth slot. Continental have got round that by doing it themselves, bypassing LHR completely.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
G-CIVP
Posts: 1406
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 6:38 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 3:42 am

You would get crushed in the stampede!

This is easy to answer, Continental, Delta, US Airways, Northwest as they would all want a cut of the cake. Any of the Far East carriers at the 'Wick. Garuda springs to mind, if ever they resume London ops. Forget what their status is!
 
galapagapop
Posts: 861
Joined: Sat Feb 26, 2005 2:15 pm

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 4:04 am

I see US going for these depite their low cash reserves. As their European routes are the best but sadly they only have so many planes. LHR would be great for them. Although DL I'm sure would be extremly interested in them as well.
 
whitehatter
Posts: 5180
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 6:52 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 4:10 am

US might be an interesting bet as they have a relationship with BD via Star.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 4:18 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 23):
What are you talking about? If DL got LHR access expect to see at least ATL-LHR, CVG-LHR, JFK-LHR, BOS-LHR, FLL-LHR, and more if they could. CO would simply do the usual IAH-LHR and EWR-LHR.

Yes, what ARE you talking about? You should do a bit of research. Bermuda II restricts which cities service is allowed to/from between LHR and the U.S., it's not just like UA or AA right now could suddenly decide to start flying say between PDX and LHR if it was not an LHR city as determined by Bermuda II. Same goes for ATL, CVG, FLL, or any other city pair if any other airline were to take over the routes.

Also, Bermuda II covers routes. The Heathrow slots are a completely different issue. I can't believe the number of times this has been covered that we're into over 40 replies and people are still tossing crap over the fence at each other that bears no relevance to the discussion or the real world application of it.
International Homo of Mystery
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 4:21 am

For those so inclined to educate themselves before moving forward in this thread:
Bermuda II Synopsis (by B747-437B Jun 12 2002 in Civil Aviation)
International Homo of Mystery
 
mcdu
Posts: 895
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slot

Thu May 19, 2005 5:00 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 38):
You're kidding, right?



NOPE. Since we are speculating about demise, why not include AA? Anyone read the article in AWST about the pension issue looming at AA? The future of AA is not as rosey as many want to think. Reality is out there, the bar is being set and AA may not make it under.
 
commavia
Posts: 9649
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:30 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 5:07 am

Quoting Mcdu (Reply 46):
Since we are speculating about demise, why not include AA?

As compared to UA? Well, for starters:

UA is in bankruptcy, AA is not
UA's costs are relatively high, AA's are not
UA has eliminated their employee's pension plans, AA has not
UA is losing millions (and sometimes billions) a quarter, AA is operationally profitable

Quoting Mcdu (Reply 46):
Reality is out there, the bar is being set and AA may not make it under.

The reality is out there, but I don't think your post has anything to do with it.

AA is outperforming all of its legacy peers, now has some of the lowest operating costs of any of them and has been a consistent peer group leader in innovating and cost saving. AA was operationally profitable this past Q1, historically the weakest quarter of the year. AA was the only legacy carrier, and one of only a relatively few carriers period, whos operations were profitable during the quarter.

Of all the legacy carriers, I would put AA absolutely last on the death watch list.
 
mcdu
Posts: 895
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2005 5:23 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 5:16 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 47):
Of all the legacy carriers, I would put AA absolutely last on the death watch list.

Glad to see you are the ranking member and keeper of this list, tic. According to AWST AA's pensions are 2,687 billion under funded, they also have pension payments of 310million due this year. NW and DL are the only carriers with bigger underfunding amounts and payments due.

As for the AA's dominance.....How about the B6 issue at JFK? B6 will continue to erode the JFK revenues and with a fleet of 190's coming they will be going after more markets. B6 chased AA from several markets.

What happens to AA when the Wright Amendment is overturned? How is AA faring at ORD where UA has recaptured several corporate accounts and market share? Also, MIA Airport Authority is trying to get a LCC to bring Low Fares to MIA and give the community a competitor to the AA service.

Of course AA can do some amazing things..... Who gave us B-scale?

Cheers and thanks for the debate
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:37 am

RE: If UA Go Bust, Who Will Fill In Their LHR Slots

Thu May 19, 2005 5:24 am

:: nudge ::

You two want to take your "AA/UA who will die first?" chat to a thread on that topic, so this one doesn't get shut down for moving off-topic?

Thank ya!  Smile
International Homo of Mystery

Who is online