beauing
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A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 5:23 am

Quote:
The first Airbus A350 — which is still in the design stage — is scheduled to be delivered between 2011 and 2013, said Zoe Guynn, America West’s director of corporate communications. America West hasn’t disclosed how many A350s it plans to purchase from Airbus, she said.

Airbus North America couldnÂ’t be reached for comment on the A350.

America West has ongoing business with both Airbus and Boeing, and its agreement to launch the A350 has nothing to do with helping Airbus compete with BoeingÂ’s 787, Guynn said.

"(Launching the A350) is not part of a large plan to go all A350s. ItÂ’s really just the progression of our growth and of keeping our fleet up to date."

In the meantime, Boeing is on track to deliver its first 787s in 2008, and has received 261 firm orders and commitments from 21 airlines around the world, said Todd Blecher, spokesman for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

"The 787 is superior to the A350 across the board."

http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=41746

Since USAir is only the second customer for the A350, isn't it reasonable to conclude that the A350 will not be ready until 2011-2013 for all airlines who order it?
 
Beaucaire
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 5:27 am

Well that proves it's a little more than just a derivate A330....
The A350 will be basically a new aircraft -full stop !
Please respect animals - don't eat them...
 
KC135R
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 6:14 am

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 1):
Well that proves it's a little more than just a derivate A330....
The A350 will be basically a new aircraft -full stop !

Now, yes - but when people said it was a derivative originally it was true - this redesign has got to be in response to the lackluster interest before.
 
beauing
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 6:27 am

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 1):
Well that proves it's a little more than just a derivate A330....
The A350 will be basically a new aircraft -full stop !

But if it's 2013, and I think it will be given Airbus' record of meeting project deadlines, that will give Boeing a FIVE YEAR head start in this market segment.

And as long as they are using the same fuselage cross section as the A300, 330, and 340 it really isn't a new aircraft -full stop !
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 6:45 am

Quoting Beauing (Reply 3):
as long as they [Airbus] are using the same fuselage cross section as the A300, A330, and A340 it [A350] really isn't a new aircraft -full stop !

Just to make sure we get this straight: as long as the fuselage diameter stays the same, it still is the same plane for you, no matter what else chances around it???

I am stunned to read the most ridiculous remark on the A350 circulating A.net still has its adepts: Going by this logic, the 737NG is merely a shrink of the 707, launched more than half a century ago then?

As this example has showed you hopefully, using a common fuselage cross section for totally different planes does not so much hint at them being derivate products, it much more enables the manufacturer to produce these completely different planes from the same production line/plant with greater in house flexibility, thus seriously reducing COSTS.

Ever wondered one of the reasons why Airbus is so much praised for their extreme flexible production process and their well-known lower production costs might be they have only 2 different cross sections (i.e. narrow body and wide body, although with the A380 they have now added one to that), whereas Boeing has no less then 5!!!! (6 even if you count the 757)
 
KC135R
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 6:55 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 4):
I am stunned to read the most ridiculous remark on the A350 circulating A.net still has its adepts: Going by this logic, the 737NG is merely a shrink of the 707, launched more than half a century ago then?

Agreed - it is a ridiculous remark. The 707, 727, 737, and 757 all share the same cross section and they are all very different airplanes.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 4):
whereas Boeing has no less then 5!!!! (6 even if you count the 757)

make that 4 since all the narrow bodies are the same - see above!

1. all narrowbodies
2. 747
3. 767
4. 777

and (coming soon) 787 - so when the 787 comes it will be 5 for Boeing (though probably 4 really since the 767 will be obsolete then) vs. 3 for Airbus - not a huge big deal either way, IMO.
 
beauing
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 6:58 am

I guess we have to wait and see if the A350 is a whole new plane. According to Leahy its changed three or four times in the last 90 days. Not even Airbus knows what it will be.

I thought the 757 was based on the 707/727/737 cross section. So now Boeing will have 4 fuselage widths 737/747/777/787 once the 767 production ends.

Three for Airbus, four for Boeing...
 
Mark_D.
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:05 am

Beauing--isn't it reasonable to conclude that the A350 will not be ready until 2011-2013 for all airlines who order it?

Not really reasonable, no. But no biggie, folks can think what they like  Smile

It does seem like Airbus is trying here though -- maybe in a month or two the A350 PR story will have added another turn here or there. It does look a bit like floundering but maybe they're just trying to buy a bit of time before they can freeze and then announce what the design specs are gonna be.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:11 am

Quoting KC135R (Reply 5):
737 and 757 all share the same cross section

Didn't know that... I stand corrected, 4 iso 5 different cross sections then for B.  
Although, the cross section of the 737 and 757 might be identical, but not so their nose and the tail sections, so it more is like a 4.5 too me, but the 757 is finished anyhow, so ...

Quoting KC135R (Reply 5):
when the 787 comes it will be 5 for Boeing (though probably 4 really since the 767 will be obsolete then) vs. 3 for Airbus - not a huge big deal either way, IMO.

Indeed the advantage A. had over B. with this is getting less prominent because of the premature scrapping of 2 types from the B. range (although the 767 might still be built as a tanker and should not be eliminated too soon) and because of the introduction of the A380. The fact A. would have to go from 2 to 3 different cross sections and thus also built a entirely new plant with dedicated production lines, get modified cranes and tools to handle the new pieces and find suitable transportation means for them was bothering them a lot, so much even they've seriously considered (in the early stages of the concept definition phase) making the A380 out of 2 standard wide body segments jointed together so they could stick to the slim system.

[Edited 2005-05-22 00:14:27]
 
KC135R
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:27 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 8):
Although, the cross section of the 737 and 757 might be identical, but not so their nose and the tail sections, so it more is like a 4.5 too me, but the 757 is finished anyhow, so ...

The 757 did originally have the common nose in the early design phase, but lost it when they wanted to make it common to the 767 cockpit, AFAIK. It's a typical Boeing narrowbody fuselage with a nose made to accommodate the 767 cockpit, basically anyway.
 
Adria
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:37 am

Quoting Beauing (Reply 3):
But if it's 2013, and I think it will be given Airbus' record of meeting project deadlines, that will give Boeing a FIVE YEAR head start in this market segment.

The 777 was also put into service a few years later than the MD-11 and Boeing sold more of it.......
 
skymileman
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:39 am

That is all assuming the A350 gets its needed launch aid and is actually launched. I am starting to have my doubts with the trade organization threats.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:39 am

I thought the B-777 and B-747 have the same cross section. I could be wrong.

So how many A-350s is Airbus going to force feed to HP bacause they helped bail out US? A-350s (what ever the final design will be) doesn't seem like a good replacement for the A-320s and B-733s.
 
atmx2000
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:41 am

Quoting KC135R (Reply 9):
The 757 did originally have the common nose in the early design phase, but lost it when they wanted to make it common to the 767 cockpit, AFAIK. It's a typical Boeing narrowbody fuselage with a nose made to accommodate the 767 cockpit, basically anyway.

Wouldn't the 737NG have had the 757 nose except for WN objecting?
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
KLM685
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:42 am

It will be interesting to see who things go with the A350. Looks like in 20 years we'll have a plane for every different number of passengers with the A and the B version of it. But if the market exists then go ahead...
KLM- The Best Airline in the World!
 
KC135R
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:42 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
I thought the B-777 and B-747 have the same cross section. I could be wrong.

20 ft for 747 - 19'3" for 777

Plus remember the 777 was the first perfectly round fuselage, so it's different.

Also, cross section is not just width - it's the whole design, taking the same tube off one airplane and slapping it on another, perhaps shorter or longer, but circumference wise (for lack of a better word) the same. The narrow bodies are identical, except for the nose on the 757, to save money - no testing of an already approved fuselage required, smart.

[Edited 2005-05-22 00:44:45]
 
atmx2000
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:43 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 12):
I thought the B-777 and B-747 have the same cross section. I could be wrong.

They don't have the same width and they definitely don't have the same cross section, given that the 747 is a partial double decker design.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:47 am

Quoting Adria (Reply 10):
The 777 was also put into service a few years later than the MD-11 and Boeing sold more of it.......

The 777 was also a better airplane than the MD-11. That remains to be seen with the A350...

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 1):
Well that proves it's a little more than just a derivate A330.... The A350 will be basically a new aircraft -full stop !

A "new airplane" that can hope only for parity with the 787. The A350 will reduce the blow delivered by Boeing, but the 787 remains a more potent, coherent, and lethal competitor.

The second and fourth best selling (widebody) aircraft in history are the 767-300ER and A300, to which Airbus has no direct replacement. Boeing has both: the 787-8 and 787-3. Just the market for those aircraft gives Boeing a commanding advantage.
 
Adria
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:49 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 17):
A "new airplane" that can hope only for parity with the 787. The A350 will reduce the blow delivered by Boeing, but the 787 remains a more potent, coherent, and lethal competitor.

Since when do you have the final design specs? Wait and see.
 
EI321
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:49 am

''make that 4 since all the narrow bodies are the same - see above!

1. all narrowbodies
2. 747
3. 767
4. 777''

...he counts the 717 as a different narrow body too
 
KC135R
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:53 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 19):
...he counts the 717 as a different narrow body too

Well its production life is pretty much over so it's irrelevant....and it wasn't originally designed by Boeing, it was acquired as the MD-95 from the McDD merger.

I should have said all Boeing designed narrow bodies.  Smile
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:54 am

Quoting Beauing (Reply 3):
if it's 2013, that will give Boeing a FIVE YEAR head start in this market segment.

Airbus gave Boeing a 10+ year lead with their 767...
and brought us the A330 which completely swept away the 767

Airbus gave Boeing A 20+ year lead with their 737...
and brought us the A320 which is now taking more than half of the sales in this segment

Note that these are the 2 most successful Airbus products!

On the other hand, what exactly was/were the opponents of the A310 when it was launched? And how come the initial A340s were so easily outclassed by the 777? I'd say that throughout it's history it seems Airbus is at it best if they know exactly what they are aiming at, so I suppose 3 to 5 years is just about the perfect time to take a good look, mark your target, aim, shoot and kill.
 
KC135R
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 8:06 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 21):
and brought us the A330 which completely swept away the 767

On this statement I agree and disagree with you, let me tell you why.

The 767 has been around for just over 20 years now and has sold 946.

The A330 has been around for just over 10 years and has sold 524. If the A330 were to continue, it could feasibly surpass the 767 in total sales, but it's basically being replaced now by the A350.

Has the A330 been successful? Yes. But to say it swept away the 767 is kind of an odd statement, consider: A new mid sized widebody (A330) came into the market and stopped the flow of the elder 767 halfway through its life. So Boeing counters, 20+ years later with the 787 forcing Airbus to counter, only 10 years after A330 introduction, with the A350 - despite initial claims the A330 would be enough to compete. IMO, Boeing has the upperhand here, where they did go wrong was not countering the A330 sooner - but maybe not since 787 sales are strong now and the market entry seemed to take place at the right time.

[Edited 2005-05-22 01:09:15]
 
KC135R
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 8:12 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 21):
Airbus gave Boeing A 20+ year lead with their 737...
and brought us the A320 which is now taking more than half of the sales in this segment

Since the 737NG is only 8 years old, that statement is only half true. Though no doubt the NG was a result of the A32S. Considering the 737NG is selling quite nicely as well (nearly 2500 in 8 years), I would say there is plenty of room for both in this market.

Which, BTW, makes the point any aviation enthusiast should really see here: competition is good! If one company wipes out the other =  yawn !
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 8:25 am

Quoting KC135R (Reply 22):
A new mid sized widebody (A330) came into the market and stopped the flow of the elder 767 halfway through its life. So Boeing counters, 20+ years later with the 787 forcing Airbus to counter, only 10 years later, with the A350

Indeed but that's a purely FINANCIAL aspect of the discussion: "Has the A330 already generated enough cash for Airbus to be replaced without pain?", not a TECHNICAL aspect of it....
Besides: It isn't the first plane Airbus replaces after 10 years under stiff competition, is it? In an ever steadily evolving technological world, aircraft designs maybe are no longer meant to be kept going for 20+ years without mayor modifications/investments like we were used to in the past?

Besides, like I've said, the A350 will come only 5 years after the 787, with the advantage for A. of knowing what they are shooting at.... Knowing Boeing's reluctance to react quickly to the weaknesses in their product line, this might turn out to be a huge problem for them. The 787 might very well have been timed perfectly, but looks like B will not benefit from A making the same mistakes they've made by not immediately countering the A330 sooner as you've said. Looks like 10 years is just about enough to pay off a program like the A330 (or A350/B787), but is 5 still???? If so, he who has the deepest pockets can sit it out and stay in the running till he's the last one left: we all know who undoubtedly has the deepest pockets in the industry...

[Edited 2005-05-22 01:33:10]
 
KC135R
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 8:31 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 24):
Looks like 10 years is just about enough to pay of a program like the A330 (or A350/B787), but is 5?????

But your question assumes that in 5 years the A350 will shut down the 787 like the A330 did to the 767. That is a poor assumption, the 767 was amongst the first of the widebody twins, 10 years old when the A330 came in to the market - ready to be overtaken. Even so, it had some success following the A330 EOS. Now, take a technologically advanced 787 vs. a technologically advanced A350 (assuming both end up that way, as they should) and it will mean that the mid size market will likely be split about 50/50, IMO. The A350 is going to be 3-5 years behind the 787, not enough to unseat it IMO.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 8:46 am

Quoting KC135R (Reply 25):
it will mean that the mid size market will likely be split about 50/50, IMO

I think that is a fair thing to conclude and it is also my feeling.

Early next decade, we will probably find proof both planes are closely matched, both in timing, R&D costs and technological innovations.
Airbus will be pleased they will have blocked off the 787 which was at risk of eroding too much off the market share the A330 had conquered for them.
Boeing will be pleased they have successfully replaced their 767 line and will not be in a financial position to replace their 787 for at least another 10 years.

The 787/A350 market segment then will thus very well resemble that of the 737NG/A320 market segment today....
 
Jet-lagged
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 9:10 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 24):
Looks like 10 years is just about enough to pay off a program like the A330 (or A350/B787), but is 5 still????

Yes, 5 years if probably not enough time for most aircraft. But, the 787 is selling so well, that they have a shot at that. Figure that they should have 400 to 500 airframes sold before first flight (my guess) which is around the
'breakeven with a good return on investment number', which is a roughly five year sales window.

Good point about Airbus doing well when they have a clear target to shoot at. Using your 10 years as an early practice, I would say though that Airbus needs to be able to reach more quickly in the future. With only two serious contendors, within a few years most buyers will have already made a decision for the other aircraft maker, so 10 years is too long now for that strategy to work. I think they have in fact been faster with the A350.

Quoting KC135R (Reply 23):
he who has the deepest pockets can sit it out and stay in the running till he's the last one left: we all know who undoubtedly has the deepest pockets in the industry...

Yes, the pockets of several cooperating countries are for practical purpose unlimited in depth.
 
beauing
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 9:13 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 24):
we all know who undoubtedly has the deepest pockets in the industry...

Gremany, France, the UK, and Spain?
 
KC135R
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 10:06 am

Quoting Jet-lagged (Reply 27):
Quoting KC135R (Reply 23):
he who has the deepest pockets can sit it out and stay in the running till he's the last one left: we all know who undoubtedly has the deepest pockets in the industry...

Yes, the pockets of several cooperating countries are for practical purpose unlimited in depth.

I didn't say that.... Smile Weird how that sometimes happens.
 
intothinair
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 10:09 am

Quoting Beauing (Thread starter):
A350 will not be ready until 2011-2013 for all airlines who order it?

I'm guessing the first A350-800 will be delivered by 2011, and the first A350-900 will be delivered by 2013, please correct me if i'm wrong!

Cheers, Konstantin G.
 
galapagapop
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 11:39 am

Quoting Adria (Reply 10):
The 777 was also put into service a few years later than the MD-11 and Boeing sold more of it.......

But the Md-11 was just another warmed over Dc-10 just called the MD-11, mmm sounds familiar.  duck 
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 12:09 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 21):

Airbus gave Boeing a 10+ year lead with their 767... and brought us the A330 which completely swept away the 767

How best to respond to this jewel....

First, what "sweeping away" the A332 did was done long after Boeing laughed their way to the bank. Boeing delivered nearly twice as many 763ER (511) as Airbus sold A332 (280), half of which have been since the A332 was available for sale.

Second, you can't bitch about timing. Timing is everything!

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 26):
Early next decade, we will probably find proof both planes are closely matched, both in timing, R&D costs and technological innovations.

They aren't simmilar in RD cost, and frankly, you can only get what you pay for.

From public statements, the 787 is the culmination of 6 years and $10+ billion dollars. The A350 is the cumlination of 8 months and $5 billion dollars. Airbus does not have the RD experience we know Boeing has in this area. Stop tippie-toeing around it and realize that Boeing has *actually* caught Airbus off gaurd.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 26):

The 787/A350 market segment then will thus very well resemble that of the 737NG/A320 market segment today....

The 737NG/A320 split the market because to some degree or another (perhaps even strategically planned), they occupied either occupied the same niche or were too close to discriminate.

Not the case here, the philosophies of the A350 and 787 are makeably different: one is a 767 replacement, the other is targeting a niche occupied by the 772ER. Are you really gonna tell me the A358 is a 767 replacement?

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 21):
I'd say that throughout it's history it seems Airbus is at it best if they know exactly what they are aiming at, so I suppose 3 to 5 years is just about the perfect time to take a good look, mark your target, aim, shoot and kill.

Gimmie a break.

Cool-off your A332 errection and realize that Airbus has consistantly missed the mark in the 200-400 seat niche. Stopping a product is meaningless if the damage done by the previous product is irreperable. For example, the A332 "stopped" the 763ER, but not before Boeing delivered 511 to Airbus 280.

The A332 is a nice product, but when the closest competitor aced you nearly 2:1, how can you claim that "throughout it's history it seems Airbus is at it best if they know exactly what they are aiming at." Looking at the A359, it's the A332 all over again: an excellent alternative to the 772ER, an aircraft that enjoyed run-away sales.... five years ago.

Just like the 763ER/A332, a capable product can't sell in droves if the market has been filled! The A359 will probably be a good product, but airlines are just starting to amortize the 772ER that are no older than 8 years old. Few of the mega-777 customer are likely to even look at the A359. I fully expect the A359 to stop the 772ER in it's tracks (a la 763ER/A332), but I also expect the A359 to fall short of the 772ER (a la 763ER/A332).

Lesson learned: you can't look at only half of history.

[Edited 2005-05-22 05:13:34]
 
beauing
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 12:11 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 24):
Besides, like I've said, the A350 will come only 5 years after the 787, with the advantage for A. of knowing what they are shooting at....

I don't see that happening if they build the A350 with an aluminum fuselage. That's sooo 20th century. Right now the new improved A350 is just a lot of bluster from a company that's getting desperate.
 
atmx2000
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 2:11 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 26):
it will mean that the mid size market will likely be split about 50/50, IMO

I think that is a fair thing to conclude and it is also my feeling.

I disagree. I expect higher sales volumes at the lower capacity end of the market, for which Airbus has no answer to the 788 and 783. Boeing will sell a very large number of planes into this market segment, which will shift the marketshare for the 200-300pax market in Boeing's favor. And Boeing will respond to the A359 where it will initially be behind before the ~300pax market needs a replacement aircraft, so the higher end will be contested by Boeing. Unless Airbus comes up with a competitor to address the lower end of the market before the replacement market for the 762/763/A300/A310 is spoken for, Airbus will have market share of no greater than 40% in this segment, potentially a lot less.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 26):
The 787/A350 market segment then will thus very well resemble that of the 737NG/A320 market segment today....

Rubbish! There is almost complete overlap between the 737NG and the A320. The 787 and A350 look to overlap in the middle of the 200-300 pax market at the current point in time. The 788 and 783 have an open road in front of them, as the A358 really does nothing to "block" them. The 789 will have its design finalization and EIS later, so that it can take advantage of actual experience with 788 to fine tune it, so Airbus will have difficulties "blocking" it. The A350 will likely see its principle success at the higher end of the market with the A359 where it currently competes against the 772ER and the largely defunct A343. However, be assured that Boeing is fully aware that Airbus's real intentions' are to create a 772ER competitor, and that Boeing will come up with a suitable replacement leveraging their investment in composites with the 787 into either a 787 stretch or 777 update.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
Jet-lagged
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 2:31 pm

Quoting KC135R (Reply 29):
I didn't say that.... Weird how that sometimes happens

Oops, yes I clicked the wrong "QUOTE SELECTED TEXT" button. Should have been for the honorable Sabenepilot.
 
dhefty
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 2:42 pm

Quoting KC135R (Reply 25):
it will mean that the mid size market will likely be split about 50/50, IMO

KC135R, I must disagree with your presumption here. There is very little historical evidence that in a duopoly there will necessarily be a 50/50 split. In fact even a slight improvement in one product line at inception, (presuming delivery is not a problem), can easily result in a 60-70% market share for the first out of the gate. I believe Boeing is aware of this and is poised to control this critical, and very profitable, segment of the market. I just don't buy the view, often encountered in these discussions, that 50/50 is somehow a natural outcome. And I also don't believe it for the single-aisle market.
 
Adria
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 3:32 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 32):
Just like the 763ER/A332, a capable product can't sell in droves if the market has been filled!

The 200-400 seat market is big so a 787 with 200+ orders is not even close by filling it.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 32):
The 737NG/A320 split the market because to some degree or another (perhaps even strategically planned), they occupied either occupied the same niche or were too close to discriminate.

So this means if airbus delivers a almost identical aircraft compared to the 787 the same thing could happen here(and don't forget that the final design of the A350 is unknown)

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 34):
The 787 and A350 look to overlap in the middle of the 200-300 pax market at the current point in time

at the current point of time you cannot tell anything about the A350
 
KLM685
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 3:38 pm

Quoting Galapagapop (Reply 31):
But the Md-11 was just another warmed over Dc-10 just called the MD-11

Why the change from DC-10 to MD-11? Why no DC-11?
KLM- The Best Airline in the World!
 
dhefty
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 3:47 pm

The critical need now for Airbus is to get as many A330 orders as they can between now and first A350 deliveries, to keep a respectable cash flow. I will be amazed if there are any significant A340 orders, so the A330 is all they've got. They have been averaging about 50/yr for the last 6 years (1999-2004) in orders and 40 per year in deliveries. Therefore, they have a little under 5-years production in the backlog (188 as of Jan 2005), which takes them through 2009. They have a 2-year gap until the A350 rolls out in 2011.

The problem that Airbus faces is that they have effectively obsoleted the A330 with the A350, as well as putting the final nail in the A340's coffin. What to do? Push the A330 and A380. How easy is that?
 
atmx2000
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 4:18 pm

Quoting Adria (Reply 37):
The 200-400 seat market is big so a 787 with 200+ orders is not even close by filling it.

Whoa, we see markets in a higher resolution than that. We are talking about a 200-300 market, the mid size market. 300-450 is the large market, and above that the VLA market. The 787 in current proposed and potential future incarnations is capable of addressing the full.

Quoting Adria (Reply 37):
at the current point of time you cannot tell anything about the A350

But there isn't any reason to expect that they are making it smaller. All indications point towards making it bigger with great MTOW, to accommodate EK capacity and range demands to get their order so that they can justify the A350 launch.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
zvezda
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 4:59 pm

Quoting KLM685 (Reply 38):

Why the change from DC-10 to MD-11? Why no DC-11?

Because McDonnell and Douglas merged after the DC-10 and before the MD-11.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 6:50 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 34):
I expect higher sales volumes at the lower capacity end of the 787 market, for which Airbus has no answer [with the A350]. Boeing will sell a very large number of planes in this market segment, which will shift the marketshare for the 200-300 pax market in Boeing's favor.

You are correct in assuming the lower end of 787 will be the best selling part of the 787 family and indeed the A350 does not go after the smallest versions of the 787. The reason for this is Airbus has consistently said you can't cover the mid-size wide body segment -which is both short AND long range- at the same time with only 1 basic design without it being too much of a compromise at some points.
To them, the better way to see it has always been to offer 2 different planes: a short to medium haul high capacity plane (what the A300/A310 was made for) and a long haul plane (for which the A330 was designed).
I think it is undoubtedly a fact the 787 is a COMPROMISE plane from B. in an effort to cover very different 2 segments with 1 plane, which obviously is the less than optimal situation. Rather then trying to do the same and hoping they can find a better compromise than B. hopes for, A. is now shooting at one segment of the 787 market only, i.e. the top segment of the 787 and by doing so most probably will have a not too difficult job in optimizing their plane to the needs of this segment.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 34):
Boeing will respond to the [bigger] A359 ... before the higher end of the market really needs a replacement aircraft, so the higher end will be contested by Boeing too.

Knowing B's reluctance to launch new programs, that is a very doubtful statement. After all, the reason they try to make the 787 as diverse as it is now, is precisely because they did NOT want to do what you seem to call for now... unless you are saying B. will be forced to dramatically change their long time product range strategy? If that's the case, then technologically speeking this may prove very chalenging for us, but financially speeking, this means a disaster to them.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 34):
Unless Airbus comes up with a competitor to address the lower end of the market before the replacement market for the 762/763/A300/A310 is spoken for, Airbus will have market share of no greater than 40% in this segment, potentially a lot less.

This segment will be covered by A. with the future A305, a design which has been studied for years and in which was widely expected to be launched as A's next project, had B not come up with the 787. The idea at A. has always been to go for the A300/A310 replacement (with the A305) soon after the A380 was finished and then only after that would they have come round to a complete redo of the A330/A340 line. The quick launch of the 787 has forced them to turn around the order in which they will now have to work because the A350 takes less time to do than the A305, but you can rest assured that unlike that direct A359 competitor of B. you sound so convinced of is coming soon, the A305 is an almost certain thing to happen.

[Edited 2005-05-22 11:55:34]
 
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solnabo
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:13 pm

Just a little input here about MD-11:

After Boeing bought McDonnell-Douglas they where quick to kill off the production line for MD-11, very sad IMO, a great craft (the range can be discussed) SK bought the 767/737NG  vomit , Finnair was smart enough to buy these 3 holers and they´re still flying these beautys...

Micke//SE  banghead 
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
RedDragon
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:30 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 42):
To them, the better way to see it has always been to offer 2 different planes: a short to medium haul high capacity plane (what the A300/A310 was made for) and a long haul plane (for which the A330 was designed).
I think it is undoubtedly a fact the 787 is a COMPROMISE plane from B. in an effort to cover very different 2 segments with 1 plane, which obviously is the less than optimal situation. Rather then trying to do the same and hoping they can find a better compromise than B. hopes for, A. is now shooting at one segment of the 787 market only

Could it not have been a better decision to go after the lower end of the 787 market rather than the top? It seems as if Airbus has so consistently tailored the A350 to EK's specifications that it's now too big for anyone else.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 42):
The quick launch of the 787 has forced them to turn around the order in which they will now have to work because the A350 takes less time to do than the A305

If the A350 EIS is going to be 2011 at the soonest - six years' time - how long is the A305 going to take? I really do get the feeling that Airbus should have launched an A305 a good couple of years ago, or as soon as they could given the A380 development at least. They've had a gaping short-haul, high-cycle hole in their lineup since the A306 became essentially obsolete.

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 43):
SK bought the 767/737NG, Finnair was smart enough to buy these 3 holers and they´re still flying these beautys

What does the 737 (and the 767 for that matter) have to do with the MD-11? It's not as if the aircraft were competing in the same market, capacity- or range-wise.

Rich
 
atmx2000
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 7:32 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 42):
I think it is undoubtedly a fact the 787 is a COMPROMISE plane from B. in an effort to cover very different 2 segments with 1 plane, which obviously is the less than optimal situation.

No, the 787 has always been targeted as long haul design and optimized for that role. The short range 783 is, of course, a compromise, but the market for short range widebodies is limited, as this market has been taken over by narrowbodies that have longer ranges and which can be used to provide higher frequencies. Regardless, Airbus will have no response for the 788 and its low trip costs for both medium routes and long thin routes. The A305 is no answer for the 788, and will find a limited market like the 783.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 42):
Knowing B's reluctance to launch new programs, that is a very doubtful statement. After all, the reason they try to make the 787 as diverse as it is now, is precisely because they did NOT want to do what you seem to call for now... unless you are saying B. will be forced to dramatically change their long time product range strategy? If that's the case, then technologically speeking this may prove very challenging for us, but financially speeking, this means a disaster to them.

Actually considering Boeing's ability to design aircraft which can be used as a platform for future expansion with lower investment costs (consider the 777LR development cost versus the A345/346 development cost), I wouldn't count on a financial disaster for Boeing. Boeing has studied significantly lightened 777 updates using 787 fuselage technology that would counter any challenge from enhanced A333s like the A359. It appears that they have also left room to stretch the 787 family. Neither of these options may involve the substantial amount of money that Airbus seems to need to spend to make an A330 derivative that is on par with the 15 year old 772ER in terms of capability while not addressing the full extent of the 787 threat head on.

[Edited 2005-05-22 12:39:59]
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SWISSER
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 9:10 pm

Guys,

I think we should stick back to topic and possibly assume that Airbus is planning a new design with the A350 when they plan to deliver between 2011-2013.

I've heard some rumours altough not official ones that the A350 will
be sized in a range competing the 200 to 350 seater,(767/A310/330/777/787/A340) sort like A and B do now with the 737/A32S,
It was discussed that something like that would simply not be possible due to economical issue's, but maintenance and operation would simply wipe out every A and B product!

I would hate and love such a project at the same time!
What time is top of descent?
 
sabenapilot
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 9:16 pm

Quoting RedDragon (Reply 44):
Could it not have been a better decision to go after the lower end of the 787 market rather than the top?

Obviously the answer to that you won't find on this site since nobody knows how factors like time, cost, faisability, sales price and risk were judged by Airbus. In the end, what counts for them is not what's the best thing to do for the global aviation scene, but what's be best way to maximize return on investment for them. Seems as if going after the 787-9 and part of the 777 has come up as their preferred answer and I doubt anybody on this forum here has better insight in this matter than the strategic steering committee at Airbus who takes this kind of decisions (although some here act as if they have).

Also, do we know what market outlook A. has in mind for the low end of the 787 market segment? Obviously B. thinks there is a good market for a plane like the 787-8 or they would not offer it, but A. constantly repeats they think a plane like the 787-8 is somewhat too small. Spin or not, fact is A. has historically always given priority to larger basic versions more than B. has, thus later finding out shrinking their planes is a wise thing to do (A310 came from the A300, A319 from the A320, A332 from the A333 which was first....) whereas B. often finds out a stretched version is doing better: e.g. the best seller from the 737NG range is not really a 732 replacement but rather a tad larger and the best selling version of the 767 wasn't exactly the smallest version either, was it?

Quoting RedDragon (Reply 44):
I really do get the feeling that Airbus should have launched an A305 a good couple of years ago, or as soon as they could, given the A380 development at least. They've had a gaping short-haul, high-cycle hole in their lineup since the A300-600 became essentially obsolete.

A. indeed doesn't offer anything modern in the segment of the short-haul, high-cycle planes, but neither did B, so the A300-600 was -for many years- in effect in no need of any update or replacement whatsoever. As Atmx2000 said, the market for short range widebodies is rather limited anyhow and the A300-600 -although certainly not state of the art- has for long been the best around for those in absolute need of planes in this category. Spending money on a replacement for the A300-600 would not have been a wise investment, because it would not have brought A. any more sales, nor revenue than the A300-600, hence the fact the A305 has been ready to be announced more than once, but so far never materialized simply because A. seems to find better use of their money each time. Another proof A. is not just designing whatever they think of first, but is taking a shot at the most lucrative market segments first....
 
Ken777
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 10:00 pm

I'm still waiting to see how the 350 ends up - probably at the Paris Air Show. I believe that there has been a lot of refining on the 350 thinking and that Airbus might open the range up a bit to compete against the 787 a more fully. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the 350 delivered before 2011. The 2011-2013 period might just be US's timeframe, with other orders being delivered before then - again, lets wait for Paris.

As for longer term it is going to be interesting to watch the two companies go after each other in terms of competitive development. Boeing can go with the 747ADV without causing a response because it is a response to the 380. If one of the companies announces a new generation of single aisle planes then the other will probably respond with one they have been working on. But if Airbus announces the 305 and gets a good reaction Boeing can announce the 737E - forcing Airbus to go with both the 305 and 32E development at the same time.
 
aerokiwi
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RE: A350 To Be Delivered Between 2011 & 2013

Sun May 22, 2005 10:23 pm

So what you're saying Sabenapilot is that Airbus created an A330/A340 replacement before an A310/300 replacement, thus leaving the 200-250 seat market entirely open to a competitor whilst unnecessarily shortening the life of its A330 range and thus limiting the maximum revenue that could have been gained from maintaining this line as long as possible. If you consider Boeing's approach, it has waited until it believes it has generated the maximum possible revenue out of an airframe before it offers a replacement version. This is why I think they are holding off on a 777NG or stretched 787, believing they still have money to make off the current 777 versions.

Boeing has undoubtedly forced Airbus into a tight spot and, I think, banked on Airbus responding the way it has done, by going for the top-end of the 787's market and hamstringing its own 300 seater offerings. Meanwhile, Airbus continues to ignore the 200-250 seat market (which is huge by the way - 757s,767s,A310s, A300s), leaving Boeing to mop up that market.

If you think longer-term, Boeing will be able to offer a 3 aircraft family covering 120-200 seats (737 replacement), 220-280 seats (787) and 300-380 seats (777), with a possiblity of a VLA.

Airbus, meanwhile, will offer 120-200 seats (A320 replacement), the supposed A305 covering 200-250 seats, 270-320 seats (A350), 350-375 seats (A346) and 500+ (A380). That makes a 5-type family.

Shrinking planes is hardly the way to make it fit the market's needs. The A332 is a dud on short-range flights (see Qantas) where the 762 and 763 work very well, but it works on much longer segments. The A318 is in the same category. If there ever is an A380-700, expect the same. Meanwhile stretches from baseline models do seem to work very well (737s, 767s, 777s, A340-600s).

Airbus has dropped the ball on this one, cannibalising its own product range while it leaves Boeing poised to counter-strike with a 777NG or a further 787 stretch. I think you will find the only airlines looking to buy the A350 over the next few years are those seeking to replace their A340-200/300s...and HP/US of course  Smile