monteycarlos
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Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 2:20 pm

Reading this in ATW Online today:

"A380, which completed its ninth test flight over the weekend, has exceeded its fuel burn goals, Airbus sources told ATWOnline. While coy on confirming the results, a spokesperson told this website that the aircraft is having a near-perfect flight test program. During the flights, some of which have lasted 8 hr., the A380 has been flown to an altitude of 43,000 ft. and at speeds up to Mach 0.89. Airbus plans to unveil the second A380 sporting a Singapore Airlines livery "shortly." Despite the positive A380 news, Cathay Pacific is still leaning toward the 747ADV and 777-300ER for its fleet growth/replacement order, which is expected in July, sources at the airline said. The fleet replacement plans currently call for its three A340-600s, leased from ILFC, to be replaced by 747ADVs.


by Geoffrey Thomas
"

Is this going to be a mere formality for CX or do Airbus stand a chance of winning another A380 (or other variant) order?

I don't want to get into the issue of media portrayal as this article has shown, but IMO CX will definatly place a Boeing order from what has been coming out of CX officials.

Is this the launch of the 747 Advance officially coming up?

Cheers!
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 2:37 pm

I would actually still see this one as being wide-open with no pre-decision being made so far.
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N754PR
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 2:43 pm

They will not be the launch customer.
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monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 2:46 pm

Quoting N754pr (Reply 2):
They will not be the launch customer.

Why not? Do they want to see how it goes or will they not expose themselves to the risk of operating this aircraft as the launch customer?

I think they would get a very good deal (as QF did for the 744ER).
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
artsyman
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 2:55 pm

Quoting Monteycarlos (Thread starter):
"A380, which completed its ninth test flight over the weekend, has exceeded its fuel burn goals, Airbus sources told ATWOnline. While coy on confirming the results, a spokesperson told this website that the aircraft is having a near-perfect flight test program.

Yet after almost every flight it takes, they push the delivery date back further and further, which suggests otherwise.

In the end, the plane will fly, fly well and they will do modifications to make it reach its intended performance, but Airbus has a proven track record of overstating expectations during the selling phase and struggling to achieve its promises. That said, they seem to get there in the end on most of them.

J
 
ikramerica
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 3:05 pm

Are they going to say otherwise? Not saying it isn't true, but what business admits things are going wrong in a press release? Boeing wouldn't, i would bet. They will say all is fine while they look to correct anything that may not be fine. That's what i would do.

I was intrigued by the first flight tv show on TLC here in the US. They were having many problems evident from the footage and dialogue if not from the narrator. Landing gear and engines. Lots of cursing involving these two things.

I bet the plane performs as promised, no better, no worse, when all is said and done.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Leskova
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 4:14 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 5):
Are they going to say otherwise? Not saying it isn't true, but what business admits things are going wrong in a press release? Boeing wouldn't, i would bet. They will say all is fine while they look to correct anything that may not be fine. That's what i would do.

They probably would admit if things were going wrong, and I do believe that Boeing would, too.

The simple reason: things would get out anyhow - unexpected positive, or negative, news always finds a way into the public, and if it's via one of the customers that's already signed up for the plane that's being informed...

If I recall correctly, the problems with the A340-500/-600's weight came out during testing, just as much as I seem to remember reports of vibrations during the B777's original test flights (might be wrong on that one, it's been a few years since)...

So, no, I don't think that either of the two big manufacturers, not to mention Bombardier or Embraer, would try to hide problems from the outside during testing.

As for Cathay - I wasn't aware that they had already publicly stated their intention of replacing the A340-600s with the B747Adv; when was that made public?

Regards,
Frank

[Edited 2005-05-25 09:16:20]
Smile - it confuses people!
 
scotron11
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 4:56 pm

Quoting Leskova (Reply 6):

As for Cathay - I wasn't aware that they had already publicly stated their intention of replacing the A340-600s with the B747Adv; when was that made public?


I haven't read or heard it either. Mulally wasn't too specific yesterday either regarding the future of their 767/747 lines, only that a decision will be made in the "summer". (Sound familiar?)
 
Carpethead
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 5:33 pm

Despite even with a modest order for the 747Adv from CX, there is probably little interest from existing 744 operators currently. The 744s aren't that old yet and those wishing to upgrade capacity near-term have already selected the A380. Once the 744SF program gets underway, this will virtually end new build 744Fs.

I am not sure how much Boeing is going to invest 787 technology into the 747 program but if it's just a re-engining and material upgrades, the market will be luke-warm to that idea. Any re-winging and stretching of the fuselage will require substantial investment.

Boeing is better off with the 773ER at the high capacity range and let Airbus have the market for A380-class aircraft. Because right now it's kicking the A346 in the rear end in most competitions.

By 2010, there will be airlines that have not selected an entire 744 replacement to seek one. For example such BA, JL, KE (if they haven't already migrated to the A380/773ER/A346 combo). Then, Boeing could come with a true competitor to the A380, and decide whether it goes under or over the capacity of the currently offered A388.

With that Boeing could be finished with the 747 & 767 production in 2007.

In regards to CX, the only market it really needs VLA is the HKG-LHR run. Everybody knows that an airline doesn't order a totally new aircraft just for one route.
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 7:48 pm

Yeah, I am not sure where ATW Online got that, but three A346's to be replaced by a large order for 747 Adv's? Did I miss something there?
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 7:53 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 8):
In regards to CX, the only market it really needs VLA is the HKG-LHR run. Everybody knows that an airline doesn't order a totally new aircraft just for one route.

Maybe HKG-YVR, HKG-LAX as well? Also a few more......

Guess CX will order the B 747 Advanced to replace their B 747-400s when they need replacement. Also they will likely replace their A 340-600 with B 747 Advanced
 
avek00
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 7:54 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 8):
Despite even with a modest order for the 747Adv from CX, there is probably little interest from existing 744 operators currently.

Completely untrue - BA, CX, and QF have all expressed significant interest in the 744ADV.
Live life to the fullest.
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:00 pm

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 11):
Completely untrue - BA, CX, and QF have all expressed significant interest in the 744ADV.

Well BA and CX yes....

QF???

I just don't get replacing A346's with B747Adv's? Surely thats the 773ER's job?

Quoting United Airline (Reply 10):
Guess CX will order the B 747 Advanced to replace their B 747-400s when they need replacement. Also they will likely replace their A 340-600 with B 747 Advanced

The CX B744's are pretty old aren't they? How long til they're up for eviction?
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:22 pm

According to the former Deputy Chairman of Cathay Pacific, Mr Patrick Tsai, CX plans to operate the B747-400 till they are at the age of 25. They see their B 747-400s having a lifespan or 25 years.

Guess CX will order the B 747 Advanced to replace the A 340-600s and B 747-400s all in one go. But how many will they order? Up to 25 maybe? They have just acquired some second hand B 747-400s which will make the number of B 747-400s to be 22. And they have 3 A 340-600s to replace.....

I suppose ALL B 747-400 operators are potential buyers of the B 747 Advanced. Hope it will turn out to be a huge success, like the B 747-400.

Boeing will eventually come up with an all new superjumbo. Maybe in 20 years time
 
antares
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:25 pm

Avek00,

Qantas hasn't expressed any interest in the 744 ADV. In fact they told Boeing to do anatomically inadvisable things with the proposal. They are, or were, more than interested in the 787, including a 100 % guarantee that all composite components for the cabin cage inparticular would weight precisely the same as each other, meaning that every jet would have as near identical dry weight as today's various offerings .

I have an uneasy feeling that everything we thought we knew about Boeing and Airbus projects is about to be proven wrong. The 'body' language of recent announcements from both camps is totally unconvincing. I know that's rather unscientific of me to say so, but I've sent more than half a century reading company and public or banking policy statements for almost imperceptible clues. My instincts are that the the signposts along the road are no longer readable, meaning we can't be sure anymore exactly where the business of making jets is headed.

Antares
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:29 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
Guess CX will order the B 747 Advanced to replace the A 340-600s and B 747-400s all in one go.

The article suggests the 773ER will be in there too... IMO I think it will also.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
But how many will they order? Up to 25 maybe?

Good question, if the 77W is in there it will be less, but if solely the B74Adv then I am guessing there number will be 18-22 give or take.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
They have just acquired some second hand B 747-400s which will make the number of B 747-400s to be 22.

Weren't these freighter converts?

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
And they have 3 A 340-600s to replace.....

Something tells me this won't be hard (i.e. buying 77W's).

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
Boeing will eventually come up with an all new superjumbo.

Will it be able to go point to point?

[Edited 2005-05-25 13:30:32]
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:30 pm

MH, TG and LH asked Boeing to look into a stretched B 747 a few years ago. So I suppose they are interested.

QF is one of the potential buyers I think, along with CX, BA, LH, KLM, UA, NW, TG, SQ, MH, KE, CI, CA, JL, ANA etc. NZ an AF (maybe).

Just my 1 cent.

CX is very interested I am sure
 
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scbriml
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:31 pm

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 11):
Completely untrue - BA, CX, and QF have all expressed significant interest in the 744ADV.

When and where have BA expressed this significant interest? They have publicly stated that replacement of their 767s is top priority, but that's not urgent seeing as how they're currently fitting new seats.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:34 pm

I think it is wrong, given the way the industry has gone, to say that a mjority of 744 operators want the 747 Adv.

Take UA for example. I'm sure they'd love it, but c'mon? Can you see them getting anything except court papers for the next few years?

I think that the 747 Adv. will become a reality but I want to know how many carriers are "truly" interested with an aircraft like the A380 on the market.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
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scbriml
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:39 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 16):
MH, TG and LH asked Boeing to look into a stretched B 747 a few years ago.

And all three have now ordered the A380! Can't see any of them going for the 747ADV for pax use. Freight maybe.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:45 pm

Most B 747-400s are still very new and I guess they need not be replaced anytime soon. BA's oldest B 747-400 is around 16 years old. When it comes to replacement I am sure current B 747-400s will look into the B 747 Advanced seriously. Hope the B 747 Advanced will be as successful as the B 747-400.

Yeah you are right. Court papers and stuffs for UA now. Maybe when they get out of chapter 11 then they will order some.
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:52 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 20):
Maybe when they get out of chapter 11 then they will order some.

"when" should be replaced with "if" and even then, new aircraft will not be on their agenda. Sad for them I guess.

Its a good point that Scbriml brings up that many of the major's have already signed on for A380's which may affect their interest in the 747 Adv.

CX is a different story - they are yet to decide but its more than likely going to be a Boeing IMO.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
Danny
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 8:58 pm

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 21):
CX is a different story - they are yet to decide but its more than likely going to be a Boeing IMO.

It's never formality until the decision is made. Remember Northwest, Air Canada?
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 9:03 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 22):
It's never formality until the decision is made. Remember Northwest, Air Canada?

Weren't they the definition of a "formality"?

I heard months before (here on a.net) which way those orders would go, with sources to back them up.

My view, this one is no different!
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
antares
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 9:04 pm

Guys,

I know this is a fantasy forum (I'm a slow learner in some respects) but what are you going to say if no-one orders the 744 ADV?

The jet depends on the transfer of technology from the 787, which doesn't fly until the middle of 2007. In the meantime there is the truly outstanding 777-300ER and an A380 which will have been in service for around 4 years before the 744 ADV would become available on the articles I've been reading.

Get real.

Antares
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 10:08 pm

Quoting Leskova (Reply 6):
The simple reason: things would get out anyhow - unexpected positive, or negative, news always finds a way into the public, and if it's via one of the customers that's already signed up for the plane that's being informed...

Better PR to admit the mistake and work cooperatively to gte things fixed, than to have someone else blow it out of proportion....

Quoting Leskova (Reply 6):
As for Cathay - I wasn't aware that they had already publicly stated their intention of replacing the A340-600s with the B747Adv; when was that made public?

Me either, I thought it was an interesting remark to include when speaking about an Airbus program; nice to hear about the potential 747Adv order from them.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 13):
Boeing will eventually come up with an all new superjumbo. Maybe in 20 years time

I don't think it will be that far off; perhaps 5 years from now after the 747Adv has become obsolete. I do think Boeing will eventually convert everything to the 787 technology and have to compete with a new jumbo around 2015.
One Nation Under God
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 10:26 pm

Eventually when Boeing feels that there is a huge market, I am sure they will build an all new superjumbo to compete with Airbus. Maybe something bigger than the A 380 even.

I think the B 747 Advanced will become a reality.

Umm... True. UA will not order anything for a while. Maybe a few years after they have emerged from chapter 11 (Which I think they will).
 
MKEdude
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 10:58 pm

CX has been a loyal Boeing customer over the years and as long as the 747ADV is a possibility I see no reason for that to change. When the 747ADV is finally announced you will see CX, JL, NH, BA, KE, NW, MH, AI, and if they can get their financial house in order between now and then, UA as the launch customers. A lot of these airlines seem to be waiting on a decision from Boeing. Together they should order enough planes to get the 747ADV off the ground.
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline." Frank Zappa
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 11:11 pm

I think what is holding up the order for new long-range widebody jets is CX wants to know the fuel burn of the A380-800 is based on the testing of F-WWOW and F-XXXL. CX wants to be able to fly a full 555 pax load between LAX and HKG year-round, and if Airbus can deliver on that promise don't be surprised that CX does a long-term lease of the A388 through ILFC (maybe 10 years minimum).

Believe me, CX wants the A388 on routes from HKG to LHR, YVR, YYZ, LAX, SFO and SYD.
 
commavia
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 11:15 pm

Quoting MKEdude (Reply 27):
CX has been a loyal Boeing customer over the years and as long as the 747ADV is a possibility I see no reason for that to change.

I agree. I think that CX leaning away from the A380 and towards the 747ADV and 773ER are largely a reflection of CX's very long and positive relationship with Boeing for much of its longhaul fleet. Also contributing to the decision, if it is made in the way this article suggests, is probably the fact that CX now operates from perhaps the least congested airport in Asia with tons of capacity and expansion room. Because there is absolutely no constraints on capacity, CX may want to begin moving towards higher frequency with smaller planes, the antithesis of the A380's designed market segment.
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 11:22 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 28):
I think what is holding up the order for new long-range widebody jets is CX wants to know the fuel burn of the A380-800 is based on the testing of F-WWOW and F-XXXL. CX wants to be able to fly a full 555 pax load between LAX and HKG year-round, and if Airbus can deliver on that promise don't be surprised that CX does a long-term lease of the A388 through ILFC (maybe 10 years minimum).

Believe me, CX wants the A388 on routes from HKG to LHR, YVR, YYZ, LAX, SFO and SYD.



Quoting Commavia (Reply 29):
I agree. I think that CX leaning away from the A380 and towards the 747ADV and 773ER are largely a reflection of CX's very long and positive relationship with Boeing for much of its longhaul fleet.

You see here is the toss up.

CX is a long time Boeing buyer, yet like other "traditional" Boeing customers (and I'll lump QF in here) they have bought Airbus recently (last decade). CX has publicly expressed its interest in the 747 advanced and has said little about the A380. Its hard to pick but I think* that they want the Boeing plane, and are just waiting for the time and place. I don't know this for sure at all, but its just the way it seems to be going.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
PyroGX41487
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 11:24 pm

Remember, CX isn't a Boeing only carrier. They have A343s, A346s, 332s... basically a fair share of Airbus widebodies. I think its fair to say that if Boeing doesn't come up with a 747ADV before the end of 2006 or a 744 derivative that interests them, they'll at least lease a few 380s.

My personal opinion is that creating a new 744 derivative is basically flogging a dead horse.
 
KL808
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 11:32 pm

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 12):
just don't get replacing A346's with B747Adv's? Surely thats the 773ER's job?

CX uses its A340-600 to JFK. CX has never been fond of sending twins across the pacific therefore maybe a B747ADV would be better suited on that route. That's why that would be the replacement for that route.

The A380 will find its way to CX's fleet some day. I doubt that they would sit around while the competition ups them on service.

With regards to its interest in the B773ER, I think that's all there is to it. I doubt we will ever see the ER version in CX's fleet. CX utilizes all its twins close to home, so there's no need for the extra range the ER has to its older A variants.

Quoting MKEdude (Reply 27):
When the 747ADV is finally announced you will see CX, JL, NH, BA, KE, NW, MH, AI, and if they can get their financial house in order between now and then, UA as the launch customers.

maybe JL and NH for sure, CX, BA, and AI are maybe. And KE (already ordered A380), MH (already ordered A380) I doubt it as well as UA (just because they dont have the money)

Drew
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MKEdude
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 11:47 pm

Quoting KL808 (Reply 32):
maybe JL and NH for sure, CX, BA, and AI are maybe. And KE (already ordered A380), MH (already ordered A380)

I say KE and MH because both are carriers that have always flown a mixed Boeing/Airbus fleet. They seem to buck the "fleet commonality" trend and instead opt to have a little bit of everything. If the 747ADV goes ahead I would expect both airlines to be good for about 5 planes each.

Quoting KL808 (Reply 32):
I doubt it as well as UA (just because they dont have the money

I was of course assuming that UA doesn't go under. (Should it get to that point the feds would step in with another bailout.) If they are still around in a couple of years I would imagine that they would get financing from somewhere.
"You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline." Frank Zappa
 
N79969
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 11:48 pm

Has Cathay Pacific commented in any way on the 787? In my mind, they seem like a prime target for 787 sales efforts as they operate quite a few A330. I would be curious as to what they have to say.


KL808,

Cathay Pacific has overtly stated an interest in the 773ER. I do not understand the nature of your skepticism. Cathay also operates the A330, a two engine machine, as far as Australia which is a good 10 hours away. That is not too close to home. Even if they wanted to avoid the trans-Pacific crossing in a two-engine airplane, they could put the 773ER to good use elsewhere such as flights to Europe.

All Nippon Airways has announced long term fleet plans which include get ridding of all 747 airplanes in favor of 773ER. They are certainly not a "sure" customer for the 744Adv.
 
buckfifty
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Wed May 25, 2005 11:54 pm

There is a concern that, if and when a 747Adv does show up, that it will be too expensive an aircraft to replace the 744's in CX's fleet. The 773ER, if the price is right, is more of a realistic target it seems. But at the most, it will only be a replacement for the 346, and not much more.

A decision by July? ATW seems to be a bit ahead of themselves. I'll put my money on the fact that come July, tumbleweeds will still be rolling outside CX City.

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 8):
In regards to CX, the only market it really needs VLA is the HKG-LHR run. Everybody knows that an airline doesn't order a totally new aircraft just for one route.

They ordered the 346 for the HKG-JFK route, which has, and will be, the plan. So it does happen. Why not order more aircraft in the same class? Because there isn't a need. The operating economics of the 744 is enough for the premium sectors, such as LHR, CDG and LAX, as CX can charge a premium for their business and first products. Until the day when the 744's are no longer economically viable, they will continue to serve in this role.

It seems that all the other destinations, including YYZ, AMS and MEL, do not need first class at all, and are earning more money from two class operations. The 773 and the 333/343 combination have been fulfilling this role quite efficiently. There hasn't been a need for a bigger aircraft, but frequency seems to be the motto for CX lately.

Lots of grandiose dreams, but reality isn't necessarily that bright, I reckon.
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 12:04 am

UA is likely to survive. Once they are out of the woods I believe they will order the B 747 Advanced to replace their B 747-400s.

ANA's B 747 Classics will go but the 400 will stay for sometime I think

MH, KE, TG, LH etc asked Boeing to develop a new B 747 with 50 extra seats. So I suppose they are interested. I suppose they will order the B 747 Advanced to replace their large B 747-400 fleet. Maybe SQ will order some too.
 
pixuk
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 12:06 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 26):
Eventually when Boeing feels that there is a huge market, I am sure they will build an all new superjumbo to compete with Airbus. Maybe something bigger than the A 380 even.

I think the B 747 Advanced will become a reality.

I though Boeing stated there wasn't a market for a new superjumbo, which is why they got on and developed the 7E7 while Airbus went down the A3XX route. Are you saying Boeing were wrong, and have now changed there mind? Have Boeing made any announcement about this?

With all these orders you say the 747Adv is going to pick up, I guess Boeing better hurry up and announce something so they can let the orders roll in.
 
zoom1018
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 12:25 am

Quoting Pixuk (Reply 37):
I though Boeing stated there wasn't a market for a new superjumbo,

I think Boeing stated that there was not enough demand for VLA, they did not say there was no market at all!
 
KL808
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 12:52 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 34):
Cathay also operates the A330, a two engine machine, as far as Australia which is a good 10 hours away. That is not too close to home.

Yes sir your right, however I believe the ETOPS requirements to Australia from HKG is minimal (120 min is sufficient), therefore the use of twins to Australia. Of course to JFK would be another story. That's why IM a bit skeptic of the B773ER in CX's fleet. Can CX utilize it to Europe? Sure it can. However, with years of mentality about twins I cant believe it right now.
IMHO if CX orders it then i'll believe it.

Drew
AMS-LAX-MNL
 
zoom1018
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 12:55 am

Quoting KL808 (Reply 39):
Yes sir your right, however I believe the ETOPS requirements to Australia from HKG is minimal (120 min is sufficient), therefore the use of twins to Australia. Of course to JFK would be another story. That's why IM a bit skeptic of the B773ER in CX's fleet. Can CX utilize it to Europe? Sure it can. However, with years of mentality about twins I cant believe it right now.
IMHO if CX orders it then i'll believe it.

Well, things change through time... who knows? If others can fly their twins over the water, so can CX.
 
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clickhappy
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 12:56 am

posted this in another thread, but rumors around Seattle have CX, BA, and Qantas launching the 747Adv at Paris with orders for 10 frames each.
 
zoom1018
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 12:58 am

Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 41):
posted this in another thread, but rumors around Seattle have CX, BA, and Qantas launching the 747Adv at Paris with orders for 10 frames each.

if that would be truth then it 'exceeds' my expectation Big grin
 
Danny
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 1:02 am

BA is not buying anything.
 
zoom1018
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 1:03 am

They could sign a MOU ... not? or even a firm order for future deliveries hehehe
 
pixuk
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 1:10 am

There seems to be constant 'rumours' (mostly started on here) that BA are buying this or that, when they've only just publically stated they're not buying anything just yet. No amount of speculation will make it happen. They've stated to their shareholders that they are focused on reducing debt, so any orders at Paris would conflict with guidance.
 
PM
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 1:23 am

Two points.

1. Less than two months ago Cathay and Rolls-Royce signed a TotalCare agreement covering the Trent 500 on the A340-600 and it is described in the RR press release as "long term". Even if the 346s are on their way out, whatever CX want to replace them with isn't about to arrive soon.

http://www.rolls-royce.com/media/showPR.jsp?PR_ID=40194

2. How many 747ADVs do Boeing need to sell or to build annually in order to make money? Seems to me that we aren't talking an aircraft a week here. If they built, say, 1.5 or 2 a month between, say, 2009 and 2015, they'd produce 100-150 units. That would cover costs, justify the investment and make them a little money, wouldn't it? It would keep them in the big-end business and put a fair thorn in the side of Airbus and it wouldn't need sales over the next decade of more than a dozen or so a year.

Just my €0.018427
 
kaitak
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 2:53 am

Very interesting thread. My personal feeling is that the 747A is the end of the road for the 747, whatever happens. I love the 747, as I'm sure we all do and I would like it to go out on a high note, BUT realistically, the A380 is at the beginning of the road. It's the new thing and sure, there will be delays and problems - teething issues; sure, too, the A340-600 has not been CX's favourite aircraft, but CX is a leading airline and as such, it needs to move forward.

From Airbus's perspective, the situation regarding the 747A is similarly to Boeing's as far as the A350 is concerned. Huh? The A350 has a pretty small order book with one customer for ten. If it reels in Emirates, that lends a lot of credibility to a competitor for the 787: the response ... focus on EK and get them on board.

Similarly, Airbus with the 747A. The 747A could be a threat to the A340-600ER and the A380. Strategically, Airbus needs to stop the 747A happening. With the A346's record at CX, it has an uphill battle, but if it can get CX on board with the 380 (possibly 388F - for which a HK based airline must be a potential customer) and replace the current A346s with new A346ERs, then it might have a deal. Personally, I think Airbus can win this if it's sufficiently focused.

No 747A, new customers for the A380 ... so it's worth giving CX a particularly good deal to kill the 747A.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 3:04 am

Quoting PyroGX41487 (Reply 31):
Remember, CX isn't a Boeing only carrier. They have A343s, A346s, 332s

They've never operated the A332

Quoting KL808 (Reply 39):
Yes sir your right, however I believe the ETOPS requirements to Australia from HKG is minimal (120 min is sufficient), therefore the use of twins to Australia.

Though they don't necessarily "need" it, CX is certified for and operates ETOPS180 to Australia.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
ikramerica
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RE: Cathay Widebody Order - A Formality?

Thu May 26, 2005 3:34 am

ETOPS rules are changing to include 4 engine planes (just with different time restriction), and the larger you go, the harder it is to find facilities that can handle you (A380, for example). One reason the 787 has an ETOPS advantage over the 777, as it can likely land at more emergency airports.
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