mrcomet
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Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:21 pm

No mention of the 747ADV and this from a supposed launch customer. Does that mean it ain't happening?

"Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Asia's second-most profitable airline, said it may add the Airbus SAS A340-600 or Boeing Co.'s 777-300ER for long-haul flights as the company expands its fleet to meet rising travel demand.

The airline has requested proposals from Airbus, Boeing, engine makers and leasing companies for an order of A340-600 or 777-300 planes after an evaluation of its aircraft needs for 2007 to 2012, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific said in the June issue of its internal magazine. "

From Bloomberg News

[Edited 2005-06-10 06:24:24]
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mrcomet
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:39 pm

yeah but you'd think they would mention it at least if they were considering it..... nobody will go on the record in the airline industry that they are seriously interested in the 747 ADV except Cargolux.

Looks like they'll be ordering 777-300ERs. I don' think the A340-600 has a chance. Interestingly, they say they are interested in the 787 and A350 for later but the A350 should be in the competition as it is a bigger plane.
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United Airline
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:41 pm

Quoting MrComet (Thread starter):
No mention of the 747ADV and this from a supposed launch customer. Does that mean it ain't happening?

"Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Asia's second-most profitable airline, said it may add the Airbus SAS A340-600 or Boeing Co.'s 777-300ER for long-haul flights as the company expands its fleet to meet rising travel demand.

The airline has requested proposals from Airbus, Boeing, engine makers and leasing companies for an order of A340-600 or 777-300 planes after an evaluation of its aircraft needs for 2007 to 2012, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific said in the June issue of its internal magazine. "

From Bloomberg News

Cathay Pacific is VERY interested in the B 747 Advanced and it is very likely that they will be the launch customer. They will likely place a large order for that.

However, the B 747 Advanced is not being offered yet and thus they cannot make a REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL for it. I am sure they will, once Boeing offers it formally.
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 1:43 pm

Quoting Eksath (Reply 1):
The call for Airbus & Boeing proposals is just being done to make sure that they dont get sued by Airbus for not considering the Airbus product line before purchase of the 747ADV.

Well if you read the article you would realise the 747 Advanced has nothing to do with this RFP.

My feeling is that this issue would be much more easily solved if CX sorted out their twin engine policy regarding long-haul trans pacific flights. Aside from that it will be interesting to note the kind of proposals put forward by both Airbus and Boeing.

I also wonder how the order will be done, in regards to the split between the leased frames and actual airline orders.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:03 pm

They will likely get the B 747 Advanced. Maybe not the A 380 though....

So what will they have eventually? My guess: B 777-200/300/300ER, A 350 and/or A 340-300, B 747 Advanced.......????
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:12 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 5):
They will likely get the B 747 Advanced. Maybe not the A 380 though....

This RFP is only concerned with the selection of either the 77W or A346 and I think most likely a limited number of airframes.

I have little doubt that CX will look to the 747 Advanced at some stage but not in this order and probably not for sometime yet.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 5):
So what will they have eventually? My guess: B 777-200/300/300ER, A 350 and/or A 340-300, B 747 Advanced.......????

Eventually the long haul fleet will probably consist of 747's, 777's and maybe limited Airbus' although if Airbus were to win this order then it is likely to see those frames still operating with CX in the long run.
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
commavia
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:13 pm

If CX is indeed extremely interested in the 747ADV, as has been reported and widely claimed on these forums, perhaps Boeing could use that to their advantage and package a 773ER order with being the launch customer for the 747ADV.
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 2:27 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
If CX is indeed extremely interested in the 747ADV, as has been reported and widely claimed on these forums, perhaps Boeing could use that to their advantage and package a 773ER order with being the launch customer for the 747ADV.

Ahhh now we're talking! That would be an interesting deal indeed. I think CX could possibly get away from this deal with a very liberal contract on ordering the 747 Advanced coupled with their order for 77W's plus options. That would certainly be a coup for Boeing and perhaps a way to get around not having the "authority to offer" yet...

A good point indeed!  Wink
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
lutfi
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:19 pm

Quotes from CX World

"CX has concluded that A340-600 or the B777-300ER can meet most of the airlines future long haul requirements"

"CX is very interested in A350 or B787, but as these will not be available until next decade, there is no need to be making any decisions now"

"The candidates studied as future standard long haul aircraft were B747ADV, B773ER, A346 and used B744"

"Niche aircraft were also evaluated to see if they could add extra value, ULH aircraft (B772LR, A345) hi-capacity (A380, B747ADV) and new generation "long thin" aircraft (B787/A350) for routes like Madrid/ Chicago"

Sounds like CX has decided that if it does get B747ADV, it will only be a few frames, and either/or with A380. The main replacement aircraft for B744/A340 will be A346/B773ER
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 3:27 pm

Quoting Lutfi (Reply 9):

Thanks Lufti... As the thread starter article suggests it appears the 744's and either 77W/A346 will carry the fleet until the B747Adv. and A380 (and others?) are evaluated at a later date.

Cheers!  Wink
It's a beautiful night to fly like a phoenix...
 
Carfield
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:20 pm

I honestly think that "price" will be the key factor on the future fleet decision. Despite problems with Airbus A340-600s, I believe that if Airbus offers a good enough price, CX will just buy the updated IGW.

If Boeing is willing to lower the price of its -300ERs, I also think that CX will change its twin engine policies.

I also think that if Boeing 747ADV will go ahead, CX will buy that instead...

Anyway, CX fleet decisions will not be made till next year.

Carfield
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 4:56 pm

CX is evaluating the A 380. Wonder if they will order it.... However, they are more interested in the B 747 Advanced and it is more likely that they will lean towards it.

Indeed CX is very interested in the B 747 Advanced. They have converted one passenger B 747-400 into freighter and will add 4 ex-SQ B 747-400s to the passenger fleet. A number of routes require the size of a B 747 Advanced so if they order it, I expect the order to be around 19-25. Possible routes include all current B 747-400 routes. A small order is not economical.

I doubt any of their B 747-400s will go anytime soon. They are still taking delivery of those ex-SQ ones.

According to Patrick Tsai, former Deputy Chairman of CX, CX plans to operate the B 747-400s till they reach the age of 25.

The A340-600/B777-300ER can replace existing A330s/A340-300s or add capacity. Not sure about the B 777-200/300.

[Edited 2005-06-10 09:59:56]
 
Carpethead
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:47 pm

CX isn't replacing anything. All aircraft are for growth this decade.
Obviously, the A346 has a slight upper hand in this competition because of existing engine and airframe combination, but the 773ER cannot be ruled out.

Since the timeframe is quite long, it could be an order of 10 to 20 aircraft or CX could start off with only a few airframes and continually add a few every other year like it has done with the A333 & 773s.
 
abba
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:51 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 3):
Cathay Pacific is VERY interested in the B 747 Advanced and it is very likely that they will be the launch customer. They will likely place a large order for that.

And again

Quoting United Airline (Reply 12):
CX is evaluating the A 380. Wonder if they will order it.... However, they are more interested in the B 747 Advanced and it is more likely that they will lean towards it.

I do not think so. However, when the A380 flies CX will no doubt be looking carefully at this plane. If the 747 adv ever takes of it will be the very last wagon on the train. And I seriously doubt CX will like to be booked in there. They are fast becoming too Asian for that. No - expect a larger 380 order together with Air China.

Quoting Lutfi (Reply 9):
"CX is very interested in A350 or B787, but as these will not be available until next decade, there is no need to be making any decisions now"

Yep - CX has a strong policy of NOT being a launch customer. (Might even also apply for the 747 adv)

Abba
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 8:02 pm

Might be true though they were the launch customer of the B 777-300.

Though I still think they will place a large order for the B 747 Advanced. Many of CX's routes require the capacity of a B 747. They might order some A 380s too. Who knows?

The B 747 Advanced will have a future. A number of airlines have expressed interest in it. It will fill in the gap between the B 777-300ER/A340-600 and the A 380.

Just my 2 cents.
Regards.

[Edited 2005-06-10 13:03:46]
 
avek00
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 8:06 pm

Quoting Abba (Reply 15):
No - expect a larger 380 order together with Air China.

For what - the A380 works largely AGAINST CX's clear preference for adding capacity by increasing frequencies.
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United Airline
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 8:09 pm

CX can afford anything themselves without having a joint order with anyone.
 
N754PR
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 8:12 pm

I would like to see a few more A346's and 773ER's
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Glareskin
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 8:34 pm

Quoting N754PR (Reply 19):
CX isn't replacing anything. All aircraft are for growth this decade.
Obviously, the A346 has a slight upper hand in this competition because of existing engine and airframe combination

Good observation!
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
Planesmart
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 8:41 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 7):
If CX is indeed extremely interested in the 747ADV, as has been reported and widely claimed on these forums, perhaps Boeing could use that to their advantage and package a 773ER order with being the launch customer for the 747ADV.

B has been doing this, but not in sufficient detail to the point they could actually accept orders for the 747ADV.

Packaging is a good idea, but if the 2 models aren't available simultaneously, the customer has a no cost way to terminate both model orders if one is very late, doesn't reach production after all or doesn't meet performance guarantees.

I'm sure both manufacturers would prefer to get one order confirmed short-term, than possibly two in the medium-term.
 
calvin99
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Fri Jun 10, 2005 11:52 pm

I think CX might consider a split order. Unlike SQ, who mentioned specifically that their order will go to only ONE manufacture, CX never mention that and throughout the CX's history, their order tend to split between the two. Last year, when CX ordered 3 A333s (+ 3 lease in), they also order an order for 3 additional B773.

A346 and B773 can serve CX quite well. Should CX wants to slightly modify their policy, CX can continue to stick on their philosophy of having four engines aircraft on trans-oceanic flight such as North America while having the 7773ER on their flight to Europe and perharps Australia.

Currently, CX operates A333 and B773 together and CX seems to be happy with that. A333 operates on route with lower cargo load, on the other hand, B773 operates mostly to Middle East which require more cargo space.

Regarding B744ADV and A380, CX seems to be reluctant to order A380, although the pressure is there. Major Asian carriers order A380, including MH, SQ, KE, TG, CZ and more. A comparison between China Southern Airline and Cathay Pacific will be quite tense as CZ is so close from Hong Kong and CX will never wants to be behind of CZ.

Regarding the issue of not being the launch customer, CX is the first airline to take B777-300 and early customer of A346. If CX really wants to the aircraft, CX will order them, althought they have bad experience with A346.

Just some of my thought..!!
 
N79969
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:22 am

I think the ball is in Boeing's court on this one.
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:55 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 6):
If CX is indeed extremely interested in the 747ADV, as has been reported and widely claimed on these forums, perhaps Boeing could use that to their advantage and package a 773ER order with being the launch customer for the 747ADV.

Airbus can offer the same package, A340-600's and A380-800's in one megadeal.

Quoting PlaneSmart (Reply 19):
Packaging is a good idea, but if the 2 models aren't available simultaneously, the customer has a no cost way to terminate both model orders if one is very late, doesn't reach production after all or doesn't meet performance guarantees.

That's why Airbus is ahead here. The A380 is already up and running and can therefore be combined in an A340 order.

Cheers!  wave 
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Glom
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 2:20 am

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 22):
Airbus can offer the same package, A340-600's and A380-800's in one megadeal.

Maybe, but there's a huge difference in size between the two. They're not quite so complementary.
 
iowa744fan
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 3:09 am

Quoting Abba (Reply 13):
Yep - CX has a strong policy of NOT being a launch customer. (Might even also apply for the 747 adv)



Quoting Calvin99 (Reply 20):
Regarding the issue of not being the launch customer, CX is the first airline to take B777-300 and early customer of A346. If CX really wants to the aircraft, CX will order them, althought they have bad experience with A346.

It is a long way back, but wasn't Cathay also one of (if not the first) to operate the RR powered 744 too?
 
commavia
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 3:27 am

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 15):
For what - the A380 works largely AGAINST CX's clear preference for adding capacity by increasing frequencies

IMO, this is exactly right. The A380 just doesn't fit into the CX network for two reasons: first, as you rightly say, CX has clearly shown a preference over the last decade of adding frequencies rather than increasing aircraft size. Witness LHR going from 2x daily in 2000 to 3x today and apparently up to 4x later this year. And look at their fleet -- lots of 200-250 seat A330s up against the 300-350 seat 777s and 747s flown by some of their Asian competitors. Second, the main purpose of the A380 -- to cut through congested airports and boost capacity at constrained facilities, is pretty much a null point considering CX's home base and only hub, HKG, is one of the newest, largest, most advanced, and least congested airports on earth and has absolutely no need for an A380-sized aircraft as airlines can fly many more flights with smaller planes.

Quoting LifelinerOne (Reply 22):
Airbus can offer the same package, A340-600's and A380-800's in one megadeal.

Airbus can't match the 747ADV. They decided to focus on the A380, a plane I don't think CX will ever order, which is somewhat larger.
 
Boegas
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:09 am

Is that a difficault choise... A340 or 777 ?

I would take 777  Smile
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GuyBetsy1
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:11 am

The only reason CX doesn't want the A380 is that Airbus cannot guarantee that the aircraft can fly LAX-HKG on a full load of passengers and cargo.

Though CX has a fleet of 777s, none of them are meant for long haul overseas travel. Most of CX's passengers prefer to fly on aircraft with 4 engines over long stretches.

But the airline has to do some major ordering soon.. some of the 747-400s are coming close to 15 years old!
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:16 am

Quoting GuyBetsy1 (Reply 27):
Most of CX's passengers prefer to fly on aircraft with 4 engines over long stretches.

You have no evidence whatsoever to corroborate this.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
N60659
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:26 am

Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 24):
It is a long way back, but wasn't Cathay also one of (if not the first) to operate the RR powered 744 too?

You are correct sir. CX ordered a pair of RB211-524 powered 744's in June 1986. BA followed with an order for 16 RR powered aiframes in August '86.

IIRC CX was one of the first and few carriers to operate RR powered 742s as well.

-N60659
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zvezda
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:28 am

Quoting GuyBetsy1 (Reply 27):
Most of CX's passengers prefer to fly on aircraft with 4 engines over long stretches.

I'd wager that most of CX's (and any other carrier's) passengers don't have any idea how many engines are powering the aircraft they are on.
 
Thrust
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 7:30 am

I'm guessing Cathay will choose the 777...more passenger luxury, plus they already have a prominent 777 fleet. if I were the owner of any airline..the 777 would always be my choice over the A340.
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United Airline
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:07 pm

Quoting GuyBetsy1 (Reply 27):
But the airline has to do some major ordering soon.. some of the 747-400s are coming close to 15 years old!

CX plans to operate its B 747-400s till they reach the age of 25. They are still taking delivery of a number of ex-SQ B 747-400s which are around 15 years old according to a number of airliners members as well as Cathay Pacific executives and pilots.

Guess they will order new planes when it comes to replacement. I believe they will order the B 747 Advanced to replace their B 747-400 fleet.

Eventually we will see: B 777-200/300/300ER, A 350, B 747 Advanced I think.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 30):
I'd wager that most of CX's (and any other carrier's) passengers don't have any idea how many engines are powering the aircraft they are on.

Most passengers are not aware of the aircraft type or whatsoever. Even the media.

Quoting N60659 (Reply 29):
You are correct sir. CX ordered a pair of RB211-524 powered 744's in June 1986. BA followed with an order for 16 RR powered aiframes in August '86.

IIRC CX was one of the first and few carriers to operate RR powered 742s as well

Yes. CX was also the launch customer of the B 777-300.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:32 pm

I think right now CX is watching whether Airbus can demonstrate they can fly the A380-800 at full MTOW from LAX to HKG year-round. If Airbus does demonstrate that capability then CX might seriously look at doing a long-term ease on 6-8 planes through ILFC, and the plane will be assigned to the routes from HKG to LAX, SFO, SYD, and LHR.
 
antares
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:35 pm

Wake up dreamers. I've spoken to a CX authority. There is no chance of a 747 advanced order. It is as dead as a Rekkof.

Antares
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 2:03 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 34):
Wake up dreamers. I've spoken to a CX authority. There is no chance of a 747 advanced order. It is as dead as a Rekkof.

My sources here suggest that they are interested in the B 747 Advanced so I won't rule out the possibilities of such an order. Besides they haven't made up a decision yet. Spoke to a few CX Board members (including Patrick Tsai the former Chairman), as well as a few pilots and executives.

The acquisition of the ex-SQ B 747-400s indicate that they are still interested in the B 747.

Guess I will just wait and see....

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 33):
I think right now CX is watching whether Airbus can demonstrate they can fly the A380-800 at full MTOW from LAX to HKG year-round. If Airbus does demonstrate that capability then CX might seriously look at doing a long-term ease on 6-8 planes through ILFC, and the plane will be assigned to the routes from HKG to LAX, SFO, SYD, and LHR.

If they order the A 380 they will need more than 6-8 I think. Maybe 10-15 or more. In my opinion they will either order the B 747 Advanced or the A 380. Or Both. They will definitely have at least 1 jumbo type.

How many people do they plan to put on the A 380? The A 380 should be able to do LAX-HKG nonstop all year round with a reasonably full load.

HKG-SYD is suffering from over-capacity recently. They might not use it on the HKG-SYD route for a while I think even if they order the A 380.

Possible A 380 routes: HKG-LHR, HKG-SFO, HKG-YVR, HKG-LAX, HKG-FRA, HKG-CDG as well as a number of routes within Asia.

Just my 2 cents. Regards.

[Edited 2005-06-11 07:07:50]
 
dalecary
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 2:54 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 34):
Wake up dreamers. I've spoken to a CX authority. There is no chance of a 747 advanced order. It is as dead as a Rekkof.

So, what did your CX authority tell you they were ordering then Antares.? I don't believe they are anywhere near finalising their future fleet requirements and the 747Adv is just one contender.
You and your source may be right but it conflicts with what I regard as very good sources.
 
777ER
Crew
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 3:03 pm

Most of CX's passengers prefer to fly on aircraft with 4 engines over long stretches. And where is your 100% concrete evidence to prove this?
 
antares
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 3:20 pm

Dale,

The choice will be as advised to the markets, between the 777-300ER or A346 in the 2007-2012 time frame. They also advised that they will contemplate a model in the 787 and A350 families if it is of a capacity and characteristic they can use, meaning great jet but wrong specs will be unacceptable.

They are playing a shrewd waiting game with the A380, and will be 'a follower' and not an innovator.

The fleet will continue to be divided between Airbus and Boeing types, and specs overlaps will be encouraged ,as they are today, in that some routes like those to Australian cities could be flown by all types in the fleet that evolves by the end of the 'naughties.

The 747 conversion program is a key element of the plan, but may not, repeat may not, be the end of the cargo jet requirement.

The problem with the 747 advanced is that it is hostage to the success and the timing of the technology to be migrated from the 787, meaning it won't be available until maybe 2011, by which time significant exploits of the basic A380 platform will have emerged.

This of course opens opportunities for Boeing if it decides not to vacate the very large aircraft field.

CX wants a competitive jet from both manufacturers in all segments. I believe that is smart. If you just say I'll be true to one or the other you will get done over.

Antares
 
United Airline
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 3:39 pm

The B 747 replacement is not in a rush. They are still taking deliveries of ex-SQ's B 747-400s.

I believe the B 747 Advanced will have a chance in CX's fleet. Since things have not been finalized, I guess we better wait and see.

[Edited 2005-06-11 08:41:39]
 
zvezda
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 4:04 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 38):

The problem with the 747 advanced is that it is hostage to the success and the timing of the technology to be migrated from the 787, meaning it won't be available until maybe 2011

The only dependency the B747Adv program has on the B787 program is for the engines. The engines will be available in 2007. If the B747Adv goes forward, EIS will probably be early 2009, not 2011.
 
antares
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 4:36 pm

Zvezda,

Hi. That is completely contrary to what Boeing recently said in Australia.

It was apparently hard to nail them down too on the technology migration, apparently that is still being influenced by the potential customer (s).

But it would be good to see something stirring come out of the 747, one last glorious fling so to speak, trouble is, it can't be too good otherwise you may as well build a completely new jet, which is why I suspect we have seen the last of our beloved jumbo but can anticipate something entirely new, readily adapted upwards in size should the demand arise (as I think it will.)

Regards

Antares
 
Glareskin
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RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 4:49 pm

Quoting 777ER (Reply 37):
Most of CX's passengers prefer to fly on aircraft with 4 engines over long stretches. And where is your 100% concrete evidence to prove this?

I'm one of the passengers. He is right!
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
United Airline
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Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 4:50 pm

When will the first ex-SQ B 747-400 pax be in service? There are 4 right? When will the last one be delivered?
 
jakob77
Posts: 202
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:09 am

RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 4:52 pm

Quoting Abba (Reply 13):
Yep - CX has a strong policy of NOT being a launch customer. (Might even also apply for the 747 adv)

Besides being the launch customer of the 773, CX is currently the launch customer for the 744SF. It's not a completely new aircraft but it's still a new sub-fleet.

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 33):
I think right now CX is watching whether Airbus can demonstrate they can fly the A380-800 at full MTOW from LAX to HKG year-round. If Airbus does demonstrate that capability then CX might seriously look at doing a long-term ease on 6-8 planes through ILFC, and the plane will be assigned to the routes from HKG to LAX, SFO, SYD, and LHR.



Quoting United Airline (Reply 35):
Possible A 380 routes: HKG-LHR, HKG-SFO, HKG-YVR, HKG-LAX, HKG-FRA, HKG-CDG as well as a number of routes within Asia.

As Commavia said in reply #25, CX doesn't need the A380. HKG is not congested and CX prefers adding frequencies over changing to a larger aircraft. CX cannot support its continous expansion without making connecting traffic via its HKG hub a greater proportion of its business. The HKG O&D market is big but it cannot solely support the 10/15% growth CX is envisioning in the coming years. Replacing multiple frequencies with one A380 flight is not the key to attracting connecting passengers (and high yield business passengers). Some board members here believe the A380 is suitable for any route that currently has multiple daily frequencies and using it to replace frequency without considering other factors.

Take SYD for example, there're 3 A333/343 flights daily departing from HKG @ 9am, 5pm, and 11pm. (Let's say 1 A380 capacity is equivalent to 3 A333s.)Just because 1 A380 is equivalent to the combined capacity of 3 A333s, it doesn't mean it makes sense to replace 3 flights with 1. CX added the 9am departure last year ex-HKG in order to offer better connectivity for passengers coming in from European flights and North American flights (it's cheaper to fly via LAX) which all arive around 7/8am. The A380 business model doesn't work for SYD.

For YVR, it makes little sense either. Currently YVR has 2 flights a day departing at different times ex-YVR (3pm and 1am). As a passenger, I would hate to see that I lose one of the choices. Also, CX888 continues on to JFK. If you take away CX838/839 and put an A380 on CX888/889, there's too much capacity going to JFK since there's the JFK non-stop.

For Asian flights, TPE is at the top of the list for the A380 for CX's regional flights, but it makes little sense either. Currently, there is a TPE flight nearly every hour like the shuttle services on the US East Coast. A large proportion of the passengers on the TPE flights are Taiwanese business people connecting from mainland China. The last thing they would want is prolonged transit time in HKG if CX starts replacing 2 flights with 1 A380. For the rest of the Asian ports, CX has stated that it wants more frequencies rather than bigger planes to reduce frequency when CX only has on average 3 to 4 daily frequencies to various regional ports such as ICN, KIX, BKK, SIN, KUL etc.

In a nutshell, CX wants mupltiple departures at various times during the day rather than 1 A380 to take care of it and I would say not many routes in CX's system can support multiple A380s or a combo of A340/744/A380 daily. It does not make economic sense to add a fleet of whale jets and a new fleet type just to service those handful of ports.
 
jakob77
Posts: 202
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:09 am

RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 4:56 pm

I think it's a matter of time when CX realizes twins are the way to go for long-haul in the future. They've already gone from the 3-holers to A330/777s on regional/AU/NZ flights in the past 10 years. CX management will "evolve" and come to realize the same for other long-haul flights too.
 
United Airline
Posts: 8766
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 5:06 pm

True but can't they use the A 380 to add capacity? CX is one of the fastest growing airlines in that region and many of CX's flights are very busy.

I would hate to see that I lose one of the choices too.

They better stick to the B 747 Advanced then for high capacity routes and as a future replacement of the B 747-400. For ultra high capacity aircraft you still need 4 engines.

The 340s serve CX very well. I expect them to operate a mixture of twin engined as well as 4 engined fleet.

Quoting Jakob77 (Reply 44):
5pm

Actually 7:10pm (correct me if I am wrong)

[Edited 2005-06-11 10:11:49]
 
jakob77
Posts: 202
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:09 am

RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 5:13 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 46):
True but can't they use the A 380 to add capacity? CX is one of the fastest growing airlines in that region and many of CX's flights are very busy.

CX has enough aircrafts coming in until 2007 with the additional A330s/744s awaiting delivery/conversion. The 346/773ER order is for post-2007 fleet requirements.


Adding 1 A380 is adding 500 seats. That is a lot unless Disneyland becomes a miracle and brings in a far greater number of tourists then expected.

Quoting United Airline (Reply 46):
Quoting Jakob77 (Reply 44):
5pm

Actually 7:10pm (correct me if I am wrong)

yeah 7pm. anyways i was trying to illustrate that there're 3 flights different at various different times during the day.
 
antares
Posts: 1367
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 4:49 pm

RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 5:17 pm

Jakob77,

I'm fascinated by your perspective. And you may be right. But you are one of the very few people I've ever heard from in China (and you are in China) who doesn't see exceptional growth and opportunity in both passenger and air freight from your part of the world.

Personally, I'm an admirer of CX service standards. I'd be very surprised if they don't feel competitive pressure to offer the same spacious and stylish surrounds for their customers as the other airlines on the routes out of Hong Kong.

I know good things can be done in smaller jets. But I'm old enough to remember CX sticking with Electras against Qantas 707s and getting driven off the route to Sydney for a while, and then sticking with 707s when others had jumbos and coming within a whisker of a similar debacle.

It is going to be awfully hard to deal with regular QF A380s for example to London over Hong Kong with reduced operating costs and more 'sex appeal', given that the Qantas Airbuses will only have about 80 more seats than CX until a few years ago had on its 744s before the use of sleeper seats.

In my opinion CX will keep an eye on the delivery schedules of A380s for the likes of QF. Once they can see with certainty multiple A380s on their core routes I believe they will act to get similar equipment and try to go one level better in service appeal.

Best regards

Antares
 
United Airline
Posts: 8766
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2001 5:24 pm

RE: Cathay To Choose Between A340 And 777

Sat Jun 11, 2005 5:19 pm

Disneyland Hong Kong will be very successful I am sure. I suppose CX has enough aircraft until 2008-2010. They are still awaiting delivery of the A 330 as well as ex-SQ B 747-400s. So no order is needed for a while.

The longer range A 340-600/ B 777-300ER can replace the A 340-300/600. And the A 350 can replace the A 330/340-300. And the B 747 Advanced can replace the B 747-400 eventually..... Won't happen for a while. Pure speculations.

The B 747 Advanced will be an excellent product in my opinion. Will add capacity for CX.

CX has a very updated fleet since the 90s. In the old days CX wasn't as rich as it is now and that's why they were forced to stick to the B 707 at that time.

No superjumbo is needed for now I THINK. At least not until 2015-2020. By then Boeing might come up with a new product.

Just my 2 cents. Regards.

[Edited 2005-06-11 10:27:19]

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