N79969
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Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:17 am

Another good article from the Seattle Times. The title is their's...

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...ogy/2002331062_parispreview12.html

Highlights:

Early 2007- 737-900X will be ready

Pending 777LRF deals- Emirates, Atlas Air, Southern Air, World, Etihad

A350: Aboulifia believes that Airbus will do it right...

Before anyone accuses the Seattle Times of being a Boeing partisan, see the earlier thread I started about Boeing in China. This same newspaper took a pretty scathing look at their callousness and screws ups. They also wrote a follow-up how Airbus made all the right moves in China in contrast to Boeing.
 
Beaucaire
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:30 am

Thanks for sharing the link to Seattletimes -interesting write-up. They seem to have writing staff that knows about aircraft.Maybe we could send some european journalists to Seattle to get some teachings in aeronautics....
Usually articles in newspapers here are superficial and full of errors...( some exeptions though with the newspaper of Toulouse - at least they know the differnces between different Airbus-families and don't show the wrong pictures related to text talking about a different airplane....
Please respect animals - don't eat them...
 
AirbusDriver
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:39 am

Seem pretty bias if you ask me.
Wait and see how many ordes A get's, I suspect a lots since they haven't announce many order in the last 3 or 4 month.
 
wukka
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 5:53 am

Quoting AirbusDriver (Reply 2):
Wait and see how many ordes A get's, I suspect a lots since they haven't announce many order in the last 3 or 4 month.

They haven't announced many orders because they haven't gotten many orders. Why do you suspect that they'll get lots? ...and the more important question, for which airframe?
We can agree to disagree.
 
FlySSC
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 6:37 am

The Paris Air Show has not opened its doors yet !

Be patient to wait the end of next week for the conclusion.
 
Aither
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 6:44 am

I'm looking for more more 787 orders but not Japanese, Chinese or US...
Never trust the obvious
 
Aither
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 6:49 am

I think the word "Revearsal" is wrong : the A vs B market share is misleading. Airbus deliveries were stable. It was Boeing going down and now they may recover. US and Japanese markets are improving. It would be surprising if they don't get more than 50% market shares of new orders in the coming years.

Ultimately Boeing will always dominate Airbus as Europe as a world power is declining rapidly.
Never trust the obvious
 
MD80Nut
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 7:21 am

Quoting FlySSC (Reply 4):
The Paris Air Show has not opened its doors yet !

Be patient to wait the end of next week for the conclusion.

Exactly. Just because Boeing has enjoyed some success lately doesn't mean all of a sudden Airbus doesn't know what it's doing. I seem to recall as recently as 4 or 5 months ago a lot of people were wondering if Boeing could even compete!

Let's wait and see how the show goes.

Cheers, Ralph
Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
 
brons2
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 7:46 am

Quoting AirbusDriver (Reply 2):
Seem pretty bias if you ask me.

The Seattle paper has a history of being very hard on Boeing, so if they are saying good things, it probably has some merit.
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
 
skibum9
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 7:56 am

Quoting Aither (Reply 6):
Europe as a world power is declining rapidly

Just curious as to why you say this comment? Is this driven by France's no vote to let other countries in to the EU? Or is it something else. Europe will always have a stong position as a economic power, I wouldn't call it a world power.
Tailwinds!!!
 
N79969
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 8:08 am

AirbusDriver,

The article even says that Boeing probably will not have any big blockbuster announcments while Airbus likely will have the limelight with big orders and the A380.

Actually I think the article is pretty disinterested and rather it is you that harbors a bias towards Airbus (and some contempt for Boeing) which you have made clear through a number of posts.

[Edited 2005-06-13 01:17:05]
 
KC135R
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 8:16 am

Quoting N79969 (Reply 10):
Actually I think the article is pretty disinterested and rather it is you that harbors a bias towards Airbus which you have made clear through a number of posts.

Agreed.

The article is not biased, for example if mentions Aaron Gelman says he thinks Airbus will never make money on the A380 (a fate that is entirely possible), then immediately says he has consulted for Boeing and participated in the trade dispute - that's fair and balanced reporting for real (unlike the organization that trademarked that slogan).

Quoting AirbusDriver (Reply 2):
Wait and see how many orders A get's

I agree, we all know their airshow history - there could be a lot, or not many - we'll see.
 
burnsie28
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 8:24 am

Quoting MD80Nut (Reply 7):
Exactly. Just because Boeing has enjoyed some success lately doesn't mean all of a sudden Airbus doesn't know what it's doing. I seem to recall as recently as 4 or 5 months ago a lot of people were wondering if Boeing could even compete!

Well they delayed the A380 delivery, and now they will no longer announce orders at the Paris Air Show nor will they begin the A350 program, looks as if Airbus is really doing the right thing.

Though, I find it rather amusing that Airbus announces all its orders at once, to make it sound bigger and better.
 
MD80Nut
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 8:30 am

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 12):
Well they delayed the A380 delivery

I think the A380 is the most pressing issue for Airbus. They need to get it right. Too much already invested in it.

Cheers, Ralph
Fly Douglas Jets DC-8 / DC-9 / DC-10 / MD80 / MD11 / MD90 / 717
 
Aither
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 8:45 am

Quoting Skibum9 (Reply 9):
Just curious as to why you say this comment? Is this driven by France's no vote to let other countries in to the EU? Or is it something else. Europe will always have a stong position as a economic power, I wouldn't call it a world power.

Well, from an economic standpoint Europe is a worldpower. Everybody talk about China etc. but if i well remember the budget of China is just above the Italian one...

About the declin, I would say it's in people mind. We're negative. We oppose every reform because we know they are a threat to our social system. It's a deadlock for us.

The US can still attract engineers, researchers etc. and compensate by being more innovative.
Never trust the obvious
 
commavia
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:50 am

Quoting Aither (Reply 14):
Well, from an economic standpoint Europe is a worldpower. Everybody talk about China etc. but if i well remember the budget of China is just above the Italian one...

But, compare the growth of the Chinese economy (astranomical, if perhaps unsustainable) to that of the Italian economy (generally stagnant, like just about all of continental Europe).

Quoting Aither (Reply 14):
About the declin, I would say it's in people mind. We're negative. We oppose every reform because we know they are a threat to our social system. It's a deadlock for us.

The US can still attract engineers, researchers etc. and compensate by being more innovative.

This is, IMO, the biggest reason why the Eurozone is slowly loosing its economic power and influence on the global stage to China, India and America. The very reforms that would make Europe -- and European economies and industries (like airlines) -- more competitive, are opposed because they definitely would, as you said, upset the delicate quasi-socialist balance that Europe has nurtured over the last 60 years. Reform is possible in Europe -- witness the economic growth of the last 20 years in Britain and Ireland -- but with it comes hard work, acceptance of change, and much more reform-oriented politicians and publics.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:11 am

It's protectionism vs. globalism. Both seem to favor the economic new kid on the block, honestly.

As a legacy economic power, Protectionism makes you hard to deal with and people turn elsewhere. Globalism takes all your jobs away.

China is almost growing too fast to sustain, and a free floating currency would show that. But they also have protectionist principles that hamper growth. If you can't turn a profit in China because they try to control too much of your business or force you to use too many of their contractors, it makes it an explosive growth market with a tenuous upside.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:19 am

Just because it's not a positive article re: A doesn't make it biased. It really seems like a good summary of the events of the last year or so. If the reality isn't all roses, that is not the fault of the Seattle Times.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Mark_D.
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:20 am

Commavia-- but with it comes hard work, acceptance of change,

Looka, just going by huge numbers of contributions from (ostensibly) American posters around here, one might think that the U.S. of A. itself is basically on the brink of hate-filled and ignorance-driven self-destruction  Embarrassment

As for Europe it's an amazingly ambitious thing that they're trying out right about now. For anyone --least of all folks around here perhaps with sad ADD issues and whatever else-- to not give them at least a few decades to get their global village all set up better is really being majorly short-sighted. Especially since America herself is of course necessarily going to undergo the very same kind of transition, in any event.


As for Airbus and Boeing and the Seattle Times and all the rest of it I think most folks know what to expect from here on in. Namely that nobody in the usual gang of suspects is going to fade anytime soon -- although market shares globally might ebb and flow a bit, depending upon what kind of technical or political turn happens this year or that.
 
Ken777
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:43 am

I have a feeling that Airbus will kick this year into gear with some very nice orders - in all ranges. I look for some new customers for the 380 (and maybe a surprise or two) as well as a stack of orders for the 32X range. The 350 might not top 100 orders, but they should be strong.

My thinking is that Airbus has been selling, but keeping it quiet for the Paris Show, which would have been painful every time Boeing announced an order. the year isn't half over and I would give Airbus credit for being able to make things happen over the next 12 months. They have to get the 380 on track for deliveries and finish working out the design of the 350, but that's part of the job.
 
sparkingwave
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:48 am

The Seattle Time article is a good example of spin (out-of) control. I don't know if agree with the melodramatic tinges of Airbus and Boeing pitted against each other in a gladiator style combat.

All airshows should just prohibit aircraft makers and airlines from announcing orders of any kind. The Paris Airshow should set an example of good sportsmanship and become an event where people can come to appreciate and enjoy the latest advances in aircraft technology, maintenance, supply, and airline services, etc. Competitive differences should be set aside for a moment to celebrate the fact that aircraft are successfully made at all; and that we are fortunate enough to live in an age where we can fly in them.

That's my two Euro  twocents  cents.

SparkingWave
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longhaulheavy
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:23 pm

700 orders for the 787? Thank goodness Boeing is finally starting to blow some smoke like Airbus' Leahy. It makes things interesting around here.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:52 pm

Quoting Mark_D. (Reply 18):
As for Europe it's an amazingly ambitious thing that they're trying out right about now. For anyone --least of all folks around here perhaps with sad ADD issues and whatever else-- to not give them at least a few decades to get their global village all set up better is really being majorly short-sighted. Especially since America herself is of course necessarily going to undergo the very same kind of transition, in any event.

it's not as if a unified europe is a new concept. it's been attempted in one form or another for the last 2000 years or so.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
douwd20
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:57 pm

The WSJ has a story for those who can access it....

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1...00.html?mod=home%5Fpage%5Fone%5Fus

Golden Handcuffs With Italy in the Doldrums,Many Point Fingers at the Euro

Strong Currency Hurts Exports,Causing Some to Want Out; Another Blow to the EU
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:44 pm

I think Aribus better correct the issues with the A380-800 soon or we could see QF, SQ and VS all lining up to buy the 747 Advanced pretty soon. And EK is getting antsy to the point they might just seriously look at a very large-scale 777-300ER buy because Airbus could end up taking too long to resolve the problems with the A388.
 
dhefty
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 4:11 pm

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 24):
I think Aribus better correct the issues with the A380-800 soon or we could see QF, SQ and VS all lining up to buy the 747 Advanced pretty soon.

RayChuang, thanks for your insight. I started a thread recently that asked "Who will be the first to cancel an A380 order". Needless to say, I got flamed pretty well, even though quite a few agreed that it was a legitimate question to ask on this forum.

The early success of the A380 is based on having no competition. Problems with currency fluctuations and its massive weight, leads many to believe that maybe it can never sell well unless the 1000 or more seat derivatives are developed. The B747Adv may pressure the A380-800, but may have no effect on larger A380 models. The question is - does that market exist?
 
MidnightMike
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 4:25 pm

I do not think that you will see any airline cancel the A380, the airlines will wait for the A380 and Airbus will make sure that the customers are well taken care of. The only way the airlines would cancel the A380, is if the A380 performance numbers do not match what Airbus published.

Give the A380 a chance, it is a brand new program and it is bound to have problems, only difference is that in the electronic age with all the forms of media, problems tend to be tripled.
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dhefty
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 4:33 pm

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 26):
I do not think that you will see any airline cancel the A380

In view of the fact that launch customers bought the A380 for $45 - $65 million less than the cost of production, one might be tempted to believe that they could sell their production slots, but one never knows the details of the "launch customer" purchase agreements.

I don't know who will cancel, but rest assured, it will happen.
 
Planesmart
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 7:49 pm

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 26):
I do not think that you will see any airline cancel the A380, the airlines will wait for the A380 and Airbus will make sure that the customers are well taken care of. The only way the airlines would cancel the A380, is if the A380 performance numbers do not match what Airbus published.

An airline will inevitably cancel an order, as most are more akin to options. Some will be cancelled in preference for future, larger variants, and/or other A models. Some will be opportunistically sold to 3rd parties. Some will be cancelled, where airlines demands for extra discounts for later delivery are declined by A.

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 25):
The early success of the A380 is based on having no competition. Problems with currency fluctuations and its massive weight, leads many to believe that maybe it can never sell well unless the 1000 or more seat derivatives are developed. The B747Adv may pressure the A380-800, but may have no effect on larger A380 models. The question is - does that market exist?

The ADV V1.5 currently being offered to airlines has limited commonality to the 744, and is a deadend model, with zero future growth capability. If B proceeds with this model, instead of launching a 787 technology-based model, it will have more to do with maintaining a presence, keeping the 747 production line open & market spoiling. Not sure if any of these translate into stockholder benefits.
 
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USAF336TFS
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:54 pm

Quoting Mark_D. (Reply 18):
Looka, just going by huge numbers of contributions from (ostensibly) American posters around here, one might think that the U.S. of A. itself is basically on the brink of hate-filled and ignorance-driven self-destruction

Judging from some of your more interesting posts, you may be among the very few who feel this way abut your neighbor to the south. I can assure you, that the vast majority of Americans, even those here on a.net, do not share your feelings.

Respects,
Sal
336th Tactical Fighter Squadron, 4th Fighter Wing, Seymour Johnson AFB
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Mon Jun 13, 2005 11:57 pm

Quoting MD80Nut (Reply 7):
Exactly. Just because Boeing has enjoyed some success lately doesn't mean all of a sudden Airbus doesn't know what it's doing. I seem to recall as recently as 4 or 5 months ago a lot of people were wondering if Boeing could even compete!

The newspaper correctly guessed a surprise Qautar order for the A-350.

It will be interesting to see what happens the remainder of the week.
One Nation Under God
 
scott0305
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Tue Jun 14, 2005 5:00 am

Pitty their headline picture isn't the latest incarnation of the 787. The design in that picture wasn't even still-born.
 
dhefty
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RE: Paris 2005- Reversal Of Fortunes...

Tue Jun 14, 2005 5:08 am

Quoting PlaneSmart (Reply 28):
The ADV V1.5 currently being offered to airlines has limited commonality to the 744

PlaneSmart, there are a number of reasons why it does have commonality, i.e.- ability to land anywhere a B747-400 can land, similar cockpit, pilot training, etc. Whether it can be further improved is certainly in doubt and it can't compete with the larger A380 derivatives. But it just might get enough orders to take a few $billion away from Airbus.