a380900
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Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:47 pm

Rather than Boeing leaving the VLA market temporarily and coming back with something up to par with the A380 in 10 years, isn't it better for Airbus to see boeing pushing the life of the 747 to the limit?

Isn't it better for Airbus to have Boeing sticking to an agonizing 747 as long as possible instead of coming up with a brand new design sooner?

To me the 747 adv is the opportunity for Airbus to become the VLA standard for the next 20 years. If on the other hand Boeing does not launch it and announce a new VLA around 2010, then companies might wait and see.
 
N670UW
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 12:57 pm

I think it could. I think it would also possibly allow Airbus to get a first foot in on the next-generation single-aisle 100-150 seat market (A320, 737 replacement), which is a massive market with a lot of replacement potential.




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DAYflyer
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:15 pm

Only the market will tell. Some airlines do not want something as big as the whalejet; hence the 747 Adv. Will it slow down the next generation? I doubt it since Boeing is already working on 737 NNG and other frames using lessons and technology from 787.
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KC135R
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:21 pm

I don't think so. Not every airline can use, not every route will support, and not every airport will handle the A380. The 747ADV will be smaller than the A380 and be for a slightly different market, filling a gap between the 777/A340 and the A380. Though I suspect it will take a bite out of A380 sales, in that regard Airbus shouldn't hope for it.

On the other hand, worst case scenario, the 747ADV being introduced might relegate it and the A380 to being only moderately successful, if the market is not big enough for them both. In that case Boeing wins, sort of, because Airbus will have invested much more in money and development to the A380 then Boeing will to the 747ADV.
 
davejondi
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:28 pm

I'm not really sure what is so agonizing about an aircraft that has dominated the large aircraft market for over 30 years. Why the need to fix something that isn't broken. I really hope they launch it this week.  footinmouth 
 
airfrnt
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:42 pm

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
Rather than Boeing leaving the VLA market temporarily and coming back with something up to par with the A380 in 10 years, isn't it better for Airbus to see boeing pushing the life of the 747 to the limit?

No.

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
Isn't it better for Airbus to have Boeing sticking to an agonizing 747 as long as possible instead of coming up with a brand new design sooner?

No.

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):

To me the 747 adv is the opportunity for Airbus to become the VLA standard for the next 20 years. If on the other hand Boeing does not launch it and announce a new VLA around 2010, then companies might wait and see.

There is zero evidence at this point in time to think that the market can sustain a new 450+ vehicle class to say nothing about a new 550+ vehicle pass. When Airbus makes it past 350 units and break even, then maybe this is a valid question.

Otheriwse, this is nothing more then a murder suicide pact.
 
GQfluffy
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:56 pm

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
isn't it better for Airbus to see boeing pushing the life of the 747 to the limit?

Huh? Is Boeing's redesign any different then what happened to the A340? Does the a/c A345-A346 ring a bell? Seems like the same type of thing to me...

Look into the other 747ADV threads (two of them I believe, three total) running right now... There are some interesting comments about why the A380 may actually be TOO big... Could just be opinions running wild...like they tend to do.  

fluffy

[Edited 2005-06-13 07:01:17]
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FriendlySkies
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 1:59 pm

Quoting KC135R:
On the other hand, worst case scenario, the 747ADV being introduced might relegate it and the A380 to being only moderately successful, if the market is not big enough for them both.

Only thing is, the 747Adv will cost SIGNIFICANTLY less to develop than the A380. So, moderate sales might turn a profit for the 747A, while less-than-expected sales of the A380 may lead to a rather dismal ROI for Airbus.

To answer the question, I don't think Airbus should jump for joy, since, as I stated, the 747Adv will not cost much to develop compared with the A350 for Airbus. Boeing isn't going to spend a lot of money on the program because they know that it won't sell a lot of airplanes. They're just looking to make a quick buck and steal some of the market from Airbus.
 
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:24 pm

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 8):
Only thing is, the 747Adv will cost SIGNIFICANTLY less to develop than the A380. So, moderate sales might turn a profit for the 747A, while less-than-expected sales of the A380 may lead to a rather dismal ROI for Airbus.

I know, that's what I said too:

Quoting KC135R (Reply 4):
In that case Boeing wins, sort of, because Airbus will have invested much more in money and development to the A380 then Boeing will to the 747ADV.

See  Wink
 
Glom
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:25 pm

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
Rather than Boeing leaving the VLA market temporarily and coming back with something up to par with the A380 in 10 years, isn't it better for Airbus to see boeing pushing the life of the 747 to the limit?

The two are not mutually exclusive. The 747ADV will be the product of some 787 R&D and R&D that went into previous 747 derivative concepts. It's not a major burden for Boeing to carry and will not occupy their attention for a long time like the A380 did for Airbus. In 10 years time, Boeing could easily come up with a direct A380 competitor if it turns out the market for one does indeed exist. Since the 747ADV sits in between the 773ER and the A388, Boeing wouldn't necessarily be cannibalising the 747ADV by bringing out an A388 competitor. They'd be completing the line.

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
Isn't it better for Airbus to have Boeing sticking to an agonizing 747 as long as possible instead of coming up with a brand new design sooner?

You've really got to cut this ageist crap. Just because it's a derivative of a forty year old design, it doesn't mean that will modern technology, it can't be made competitive. Is it beyond the realm of possibility that the 747ADV could be a good aircraft?
 
Ken777
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 2:32 pm

The 747 ADV will put a lot of pressure on Airbus - on top of what they are already facing. It will be a solid plane that fills a market segment that A eventually wanted to sell in when they could shrink the 380. I think it is also important that a 6 month delay in delivering the first 380 effectively means that A lost half a year's production of the 380. That loss can only be made up if A increases production, or has half a year's worth of unsold production slots.

We haven't seen the full impact of the 350 on the 330 line, but I would not be surprised to see a good percentage of 350 orders being 330 orders that are "converted" to 350s. Is the 330 line going to be hit hard? Are 330 customers putting pressure on Airbus to move the entire 330 line to 350 technology? I don't know, but I bet there is a lot of pressure on the future of the 330 line, regardless of how good a plane it is.

Looking out over the next 5 years: Airbus has to put money into the 350 to make it competitive with the 787. I think Boeing has the advantage in the future single aisle market because of the lessons learned with the 787. If they come out with the 737E before Airbus is ready to respond (technically and financially) then the pressure will build. I do believe Boeing could do this because of their relationship with WN, who might be very happy to be a launch customer.

Move out a little further in time and you can see Boeing taking the lessons learned from the 787 AND 737E and moving them to the 777 range. The challenge for Airbus is that they may well be in a position of responding to Boeing instead of leading. The 747 ADV is a fairly inexpensive move on Boeings part to keep Airbus in exactly in that position. I have a feeling that Airbus is not going to be happy with anything that Boeing does over the next 5 years.
 
iwok
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:43 pm

Quoting FriendlySkies (Reply 8):
To answer the question, I don't think Airbus should jump for joy, since, as I stated, the 747Adv will not cost much to develop compared with the A350 for Airbus. Boeing isn't going to spend a lot of money on the program because they know that it won't sell a lot of airplanes. They're just looking to make a quick buck and steal some of the market from Airbus.

From what I recall (sorry not quote, its late here  Smile ) Airbus was hoping that the 747 line would die off. Having another large aircraft to choose from, airlines will have a choice of VLA to choose from. If the 747 were dead, then any airline that wanted to carry over 400 people in 3-class layout would have been forced to fly the 380, thereby increasing the 380 order book, and weaking the airlines negotiating position.

iwok
 
dhefty
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:51 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 11):
I have a feeling that Airbus is not going to be happy with anything that Boeing does over the next 5 years.

Ken777, thanks for the quick (and accurate) review of the A-B scenarios. There may be another view, however, that may be overlooked. Historically, passenger traffic growth has outpaced all predictions, just like those of the computer industry. Let's face it - people like to fly, and there is a huge untapped base in India, China, Indonesia, etc. Maybe Airbus is right in the long run. Boeing has no product to offer in the >500 seat market, and the A380 can be easily stretched to 1000-1200 seats. The problem is, no-one can predict when this market will develop, if ever. Airbus has a lot riding on its success with the A380, and they now have no choice but to hope that the market for it is viable. First you plan, then you build, then you sweat.

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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:53 pm

I think right now if Airbus keeps on admitting there are serious technical issues with the A380 we could see potentially a large number of A380 customers seriously looking at buying the 747 Advanced. This is especially true of KE, QF, SQ and VS. Given Boeing's track record in regards to demonstrating better-than-expected range for their airliners, I wouldn't be surprised that the 747 Advanced has a range approaching 8,300 nautical miles!  bigthumbsup 
 
MidnightMike
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 3:55 pm

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
Rather than Boeing leaving the VLA market temporarily and coming back with something up to par with the A380 in 10 years, isn't it better for Airbus to see boeing pushing the life of the 747 to the limit?

Isn't it better for Airbus to have Boeing sticking to an agonizing 747 as long as possible instead of coming up with a brand new design sooner?

To me the 747 adv is the opportunity for Airbus to become the VLA standard for the next 20 years. If on the other hand Boeing does not launch it and announce a new VLA around 2010, then companies might wait and see.

No, it would not be better for Airbus for Boeing to come up with the 747Advanced. Without the 747Adv, carriers would be left with either replacing their older 747's will either the A380 or the A350,777,787. With the 747Adv, it gives the airlines 3 choices of a Boeing product & 2 for the Airbus product (yes, I left the A340 out on purpose)
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Glom
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 4:09 pm

The advantage of te 747ADV is it doesn't seem as misplaced as the A388. Airbus's strategy had led to a conspicuous hole in the middle of their product line between the A346 and the A388. Boeing's line is more complete. If some routes demand a 350 seater and some a 550 seater, it is perfectly conceivable that others would demand a 450 seater. Having the 747ADV, which would have no airport compatibility problems, to fly 450 seater routes would be far more practical for airlines than the somewhat complicated idea of mixing A346 and A388. The latter idea some put forward seems more like a rationalisation for Airbus's failure to complete the line.

From the discussions here, the A387 seems pretty dead because it would be grossly overweight. Airbus might have done better by starting off with the A387, then stretching it to the A388. That would have provided a more complete product line. If they could do the A389 afterwards, then great. If not, only EK would care.

That said, nothing in this business is certain.
 
Planesmart
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 7:58 pm

In the short-term it would spoil A38 sales, and be used as leverage for airlines to negotiate lower prices on both the A38 and 747.

In the long-term, it will harm B, because a 747ADV launched this year will delay the launch of a 787 technology-based 747 by a decade or more.

The ADV V1.5 currently proposed has no further growth potential left. If you believe the market will require bigger aircraft than the current A38 version, then the ADV's niche is likely to be very small.
 
StickShaker
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 9:27 pm

Iwok, reply 11: "...From what I recall (sorry not quote, its late here ) Airbus was hoping that the 747 line would die off ...."

I do agree - Airbus was probably hoping that Boeing would completely abandon the VLA market - which they appeared to be doing until recently.
The 747A will probably be a useful "interim" product for Boeing while they watch how the VLA market unfolds in the next few years.

If Boeing do enter the VLA market in the longer term it is far more likely that they will do so as part of a larger aircraft family - probably 350 to 450/500 seats as part of their "Yellowstone" plan which provides for 3 families: Y1 (100-200 seats), Y2 (200-300 seats), and Y3 (300-450 seats).
I would suggest that Y3 would grow to 350-500 seats with Y2 aircraft occupying the 300 seat segment (787-10). Y3 would be a composite replacement for the 773ER and 747A. I doubt that Boeing would ever field a direct competitor in the 550 seat class.

Boeing have no need or desire to replace the 773ER for quite a few years and the 747A can fill the 450 seat niche until they are ready for the Y3 family - probably around 2015 or later.


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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 9:38 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 10):
If they (Boeing) come out with the 737E before Airbus is ready to respond (technically and financially) then the pressure will build.

One thing the A350 should be showing you is that Airbus is willing to take on big commitments in a short period of time if a key market segment is threatened. Right now the A380 is not bringing in any money, nor is the A440M, yet they still are primed to launch A350 because they obviously feel they can't afford not to. And as has been mentioned, going second isn't necessarily a bad thing: it lets you make your cabin one inch wider so you can have bragging rights!

As for the VLA market, I'm still a skeptic. A380 has sold five copies this year. The first 150 orders came relatively fast, but where are the next 150 going to come from? Boeing has been talking about B747A for at least a year now, and the rumor mill hasn't even produced the name of the launch customer yet. So, I don't see the need to rush ahead.
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N79969
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Mon Jun 13, 2005 10:54 pm

I think it is very wishful thinking to somehow conclude that the 747Adv would be a boon for Airbus.

http://www.reuters.co.in/locales/c_n...ws&localeKey=en_IN&storyID=8767039


If Boeing even is off by 50% and snags 250 orders for airplanes larger than the 747-400, the A380 business case is, to put it bluntly, screwed. Further the development of the 747Adv will be incremental so it will not cost so much as to inhibit Boeing from developing a head-on competitor to the A380 when the time is right.
 
a380900
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 1:47 pm

Quoting Glom (Reply 9):
The 747ADV will be the product of some 787 R&D and R&D that went into previous 747 derivative concepts.

I think there is more than cut and paste in aeronautics. This whole idea that whatever the problem, the magical 787 is the solution is far too simplistic.

What exactly can be taken from the 787 to go into the 747? Bleed air engine? For what I've read in this forum, I doubt it, a lot of systems must me changed on the airplane. Composite fuselage? Maybe with a new type but not on the 747.

What 787 technology can be used in the 747 without creating a new airplane?

This whole idea: "Guys, let's build the 787 and cut and paste in the 747" is phony to me.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:15 pm

Quoting A380800:
This whole idea: "Guys, let's build the 787 and cut and paste in the 747" is phony to me.

Funny, as that's exactly what Boeing is doing. As Boeing has already stated, the 747Adv will use 787 engines with bleed-air (just like the A350) and have a common flight deck with the 787 (and therefore very close to 777). It will also have raked wingtips like the 777NGs and 787 (probably the wing enhancements Boeing is referring to).

So, let's see...

Engines: 787
Flightdeck: 787
Wingtips: 777/787
Interior: 777/787
Other crap
+ 747-400ER
__________________________________
747Adv
 
atmx2000
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:25 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 17):
I would suggest that Y3 would grow to 350-500 seats with Y2 aircraft occupying the 300 seat segment (787-10). Y3 would be a composite replacement for the 773ER and 747A. I doubt that Boeing would ever field a direct competitor in the 550 seat class.

Boeing have no need or desire to replace the 773ER for quite a few years and the 747A can fill the 450 seat niche until they are ready for the Y3 family - probably around 2015 or later.

I would agree. I think they will launch the 747Adv because they have no intention on replacing the 773ER anytime soon, and the only way addressing the 400-500 market with a new plane will be financially feasible for a Boeing that doesn't receive launch aid that can be written off if the project isn't successful is to make that plane part of a larger family that draws upon higher volume smaller aircraft markets.

[Edited 2005-06-14 07:38:17]
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brons2
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 2:35 pm

Quoting A380900 (Thread starter):
Rather than Boeing leaving the VLA market temporarily and coming back with something up to par with the A380 in 10 years, isn't it better for Airbus to see boeing pushing the life of the 747 to the limit?

Isn't it better for Airbus to have Boeing sticking to an agonizing 747 as long as possible instead of coming up with a brand new design sooner?

To me the 747 adv is the opportunity for Airbus to become the VLA standard for the next 20 years. If on the other hand Boeing does not launch it and announce a new VLA around 2010, then companies might wait and see.

You could come up with an original argument. But really you're just a pedantic smartass, because all you have done here is try to turn around the arguments from the 787 vs A350 battle
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NW727251ADV
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 3:13 pm

Quoting Brons2 (Reply 23):
You could come up with an original argument. But really you're just a pedantic smartass, because all you have done here is try to turn around the arguments from the 787 vs A350 battle

I concur.
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AvObserver
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 3:23 pm

"Until very recently, at least, Airbus was predicting the imminent demise of the 747. Why should they hope for a 747-Adv.? Boeing gains nothing by building an all-new VLA until the market is big enough to support two such types; it won't be for some years. Yes, the A380 will dominate the market but won't own it entirely. The 747-Adv. fills a size niche the A380 can't economically compete in; its proposed shrink would be too heavy. Maybe Airbus would like to see Boeing waste money on the 747-Adv. but at this point, an all-new VLA would be a waste for them. And for the smaller market it would sell in, 'just enough' 787 technology and other refinements will be good enough; no need to spend megabucks on a major redesign.
 
lehpron
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 3:48 pm

Boeing's goal should be to make money, if not then going forward with 747Adv will cripple A380's future, IMO. Airbus is essentially acclerating a market for the plane. Those 154 or so orders are those that believe it will work, after they call out the success card, other carriers that think they need it but waited for the the dust to settle...

I think the problem with creating or accelerating a market is not finding enough customers, the company taking the risk may inadvertently invite fellow competition. Like a gutsy wolf taking down a bear will attract more wolves because there is enough to go around. I do not think Boeing should make the 747Adv as the niche market they claim to be going for are of those waiting for the dust to settle around A380.
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dhefty
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 4:18 pm

Quoting A380900 (Reply 20):
What 787 technology can be used in the 747 without creating a new airplane?

This whole idea: "Guys, let's build the 787 and cut and paste in the 747" is phony to me.

A380900, yes, but this move by Boeing to cannibalize the A380 market does have a fairly simple goal - to cut the profitability of a questionable market (>550 seats) in the first place. It's definitely a defensive move, because Boeing really doesn't play in the same market. The A380 stands alone.

What Boeing is attempting to do is to redefine the VLA market as anything larger than a B777-300ER. That places the B747-400, B747Adv, and A380-800 as competitors. At the top of the heap is the heaviest, most expensive model. I think it will now be crucial for Airbus to introduce a larger model with 700-1000 seats in order to legitimize their version of the VLA market.

The question for the A380 is the price. Will Airbus be able to get the selling price up to $210 to $240 million when they have been selling it for $135-150 million? It costs around $200 million to build.

I have questioned (in other threads) whether or not the quad market is viable and also whether or not there really is a 700-1000 seat market. Airbus has placed a $16 billion bet that ther is a market and that quads are the only way to address it. Airbus also presupposes "slot restrictions" and other questionable assertions to buttress their arguments. What do you think?
 
zvezda
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 4:43 pm

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 17):
If Boeing do enter the VLA market in the longer term it is far more likely that they will do so as part of a larger aircraft family - probably 350 to 450/500 seats as part of their "Yellowstone" plan which provides for 3 families: Y1 (100-200 seats), Y2 (200-300 seats), and Y3 (300-450 seats).
I would suggest that Y3 would grow to 350-500 seats with Y2 aircraft occupying the 300 seat segment (787-10). Y3 would be a composite replacement for the 773ER and 747A. I doubt that Boeing would ever field a direct competitor in the 550 seat class.

Good analysis. However, Boeing do have another possible variant on this option. It would be possible to stretch the B787 to the same length as the A340-600 -- with a new wing, of course. Then Y2 (B787) covers the 220 to 360 seat market and Y3 could cover the 400 to 550 seat market. That would require 11 abreast seating (3-5-3) in a fuselage of about 290 inches, which could accomodate an 84 inch cargo hold ceiling height and have abundant space in the overhead for everything but passenger seating (crew rest seating and bunks, passenger bunks, galleys, lavs). By comparison, the WhaleJet fuselage is 281 inches wide by 331 inches high.

Quoting StickShaker (Reply 17):

Boeing have no need or desire to replace the 773ER for quite a few years and the 747A can fill the 450 seat niche until they are ready for the Y3 family - probably around 2015 or later.

Yes, the B777-300ER and B747Adv are good enough to take the 350-450 seat market. I don't believe Boeing will sacrifice a lot of profitability to take a little bit of market share by developing Y3 earlier than necessary. The B747Adv is a very low cost way to incrementally improve their position.
 
Jet-lagged
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RE: Should Airbus Hope For The 747 Adv?

Tue Jun 14, 2005 4:50 pm

My suggestion is to take any objective, thoughtful comments to another thread. Life is too short for this one.

Toodles!