pzurita1
Posts: 1187
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2002 11:21 am

Great Loads In Europe To Mexico Flights

Wed Jun 15, 2005 3:09 am

According to information published by the Ministery of Communications and Transport (SCT), most of the Europe-bound flights have incredible loads.

MEX-MAD 88.8% (378K pax in 2004)
MEX-FRA 84.3% (329K pax)
MEX-CDG 92.7% (356K pax)
MEX-AMS 86.4% (174K pax)
MEX-LHR 77.2% (116k pax)
CUN-MAD 50.7% (107K pax)

Furthermore,

It seems there is a large untapped market if airlines are willing to offer good (and profitable) fares.

I am especially shocked about CDG flights. Tickets are not particularly cheap on this route, and yet they manage to fill 14x flights in widebody. I bet AM would like to increase that route if they had the a/c.

Also, in Mexico there has been a lot of speculation about why BA only flies 3x to MEX. It seems the most underperforming of the above routes despite only flown 3x. They are not selling cheap tickets either, so if the would have better loads, they would consider flying daily... But, ¡helas! that is not the case.

What are your expectations for 2005?. I think it is just matter of time till we see Air Madrid going at least 5x, and LH increasing again to 10x.

MEX-CDG loads reinforce my belief that the new service from MTY-MAD should be instead MTY-CDG: better loads to distribute pax in two separate flights and more connection chances in SkyTeam hub.


PZ
Next flight: IAH-DBX-MRU-ANT
 
stirling
Posts: 3897
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 2:00 am

RE: Great Loads In Europe To Mexico Flights

Wed Jun 15, 2005 3:19 am

The goal of NAFTA was to equalize the standard of living across the borders of North America; (In a condensed nutshell..) reducing the impetus behind illegal immigration; generating significant opportunities for Mexican citizens at home.
While we still have a long way to go, these traffic numbers are a very good sign, since with the exception of the MAD-CUN route, these all appear to be avenues of commerce, not tourism.

Since airline travel is for many businesses and individuals a disposable income, these figures are a good sign of the increase of prosperity in Mexico.
But there is a long way to go. The lawlessness on both sides of the border being one such example.
Delete this User
 
ghost77
Posts: 4461
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2000 2:07 pm

RE: Great Loads In Europe To Mexico Flights

Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:35 am

Incredible also to see performance of several airlines over the last years!! Seeing 9/11 turndown to numbers airlines had last 2004!

Let¡¦s complete the information¡K..

Performance of _______ in the last 5 years (1999-2004);

AF

99 -139K
00 - 144K
01 - 155K
02 - 160K
03 - 225K
04 - 258K

BA

99 - 112K
00 - 103K
01 -94K
02 - 94K
03 - 92K
04 - 116K

KL

99 -78K
00 - 118K
01 - 158K
02 - 177K
03 - 173K
04 - 174K

IB

99 - 204K
00 - 246K
01 - 246K
02 - 266K
03 - 278K
04 - 284K

LH

99 - 217K
00 - 245K
01 - 235K
02 - 244K
03 - 311K
04 - 329K

AM

99 - 188K
00 - 212K
01 - 213K
02 - 217K
03 - 212K
04 - 226K

*Air Pullmantur*

02 - 2,000
03 - 29,000
-------> 04 - 35,000 <-------

***/****

And a lot more conclusions can be taken out from this illustrative numbers.

We can see a strong AF increasing seats and demand responding as they have expected. Same thing goes for BA, last 2004 was the best since 1993 when they decided to return to MEX, I attribute the high numbers of 99/00 for the LHR-CUN 3X seasonally flights they had with B767-300/777-200, they later drop that route, perhaps good loads but crappy yields and last year, they decided and bet again on MEX increasing frequencies to 5X and ending with 4X due to redistribution of fleet in their network in order to cover other destinations in Africa, Middle East and Asia, same thing goes for KL, they have always put their money in the Mexican market and apparently they have had very successful so far, IB, is another profitable airline in MEX, wonder what will be the numbers for Brazil? Is MEX their biggest Latam market?

LH, which seems they did suffered the consequences of the 9/11th, but at the same, it has been smart and in 5 years they increased their numbers in a 50%, finally we have AeroMexico, our sole national carrier flying to Europe at the moment, would be nice to break the numbers for MAD and CDG¡K but certainly they are doing the things slow and stupid! It¡¦s common sense to see more than 777 are needed to fly to MAD and CDG. Perhaps market isn¡¦t that BIG, but they could at least fight and stole pax from IB and AF¡K. even if they codeshare and blababla with the Skyteam partnership!

*/* Last but not least, put special attention in Air Pullmantur operations! This numbers are for schedule pax service not charter flights (which they have bigger numbers)., I don't know what route in 02 gave them 2,000 pax, but I bet the 2003 numbers are for the MAD-PVR flights which were the only schedule flights from the airline, finally, here¡¦s the interesting part, last year in 2004 it says they flew 35,000 pax, which I suppose are those pax from the weekly MAD-PVR and 2X MAD-GDL which started early, around March and ended up in November. So this clearly indicates it EXIST an UNDERSERVED market for the state of Jalisco. So the new AM flights from GDL aren't that risky! 2X a week with B767-200 = to 362 seats, x 4 = 1,448 x 12 = 17, 376 seats (o/w)! So they will not suffer, I think it's a very positive movement, same for MTY!. and I think that MTY could even support a weekly MTY-CDG! So, it¡'s all there! AM only needs to bring an extra seven six and get their wings in the air!

Ricardo APM
Ricardo Morales - flyAPM - ¡No es que maneje rapido, solo estoy volando lento!
 
juventus
Posts: 2017
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:12 pm

RE: Great Loads In Europe To Mexico Flights

Wed Jun 15, 2005 9:38 am

CUN to MAD is only 50%, wooo. I never expected that one.
 
juventus
Posts: 2017
Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 11:12 pm

RE: Great Loads In Europe To Mexico Flights

Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:06 am

Also, does anybody think Swiss, and Alitalia will someday fly to MEX?
 
pzurita1
Posts: 1187
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2002 11:21 am

RE: Great Loads In Europe To Mexico Flights

Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:26 am

Ghost77,

Indeed. It seems all airlines have reached record levels in the number of pax carried (pre Tequila crisis and 9/11).

I hope LH, IB or AF could see potential in GDL or MTY and increase their already noticeable figures.

IB largest Latin American market might not be Mexico nor Brazil, but Argentina.

PZ
Next flight: IAH-DBX-MRU-ANT
 
Fyano773
Posts: 536
Joined: Fri Mar 12, 2004 11:03 am

RE: Great Loads In Europe To Mexico Flights

Wed Jun 15, 2005 11:03 am

Quoting Pzurita1 (Thread starter):
MEX-CDG 92.7% (356K pax)

After a quick review of the MEX-CDG (O/W) during 2004:

AM & AF offered about 210,605 seats or 195,231 PAX (taking 92.7% LF).

So, just about 55% of the pax took direct flights and obviously, the route is also underserved.

This 2005 AF has increased frequencies (11x) and hopefully AM could increase service to CDG as well.

Regards,

Fyano
 
pzurita1
Posts: 1187
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2002 11:21 am

RE: Great Loads In Europe To Mexico Flights

Thu Jun 16, 2005 12:16 am

Juventus,

I really have no idea why AZ has not tried to fly to MEX in the last 20 years. Currently, their financial situation would not allow them. However, I could see this route being a very profitable one, much more than other long haul routes such as JED, BOM or PEK.

In the 90's, MEX received even OK, SU and others willing to make profit in MEX... But no AZ....

PZ
Next flight: IAH-DBX-MRU-ANT

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