vivavegas
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YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:01 am

Looks like YX is starting this round with the following e-mail that arrived this afternoon:

"You Can't Beat $99 Roundtrip to Minneapolis/St. Paul!
Get a small group of friends together to shop, sightsee or take in the Twin Cities' arts. We've lowered the minimum group size as well as the fare. Save big while you have fun!
Each group reservation must include 6 to 10 people.
Travel together July 10 through December 17.
Book your tickets by December 14.
Three-day advance purchase required.
$99 per person roundtrip includes federal tax; other security, facility and segment fees are extra.
This offer is only for group travel between Milwaukee and Minneapolis/St. Paul.
Book soon as space is limited and blackout dates (Sept. 2-6 and Nov. 22-28) apply. Tickets are nonrefundable.
Designate a group leader to handle all reservations and to make a single payment for all tickets.
Make your group reservation through Midwest's Group Sales office at 414-570-3655 or 888-601-4296. Monday through Friday, 8 a.m.-5 p.m.
TIP: Light rail service is now available from the Humphrey Terminal to the Metrodome, Nicollet Mall and Mall of America. View the light rail service map."

They preface it by saying for group travel only, but $99 including fed taxes is the lowest fare ever between MKE-MSP. No response yet from NW.

Are loads that poor between MKE-MSP to justify $99 fares? Can any money be made on this?

Craig
MKE

[Edited 2005-06-22 00:04:10]
MKE / EYW / LAS - The true trifecta of aviation!
 
airtran737
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:17 am

Let's see if YX just woke up the sleeping giant that is NW. I expect a reaction from NW regarding theses low fares, be it added capacity, or lowered fares.
Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
 
FutureFO
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:37 am

The loads are awesome on the MKE-MSP run. Almost full on all round trips. 3 on the 717 and 2 on the FRJ.


Sean from MCO and MKE
I Don't know where I am anymore
 
MaverickM11
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:42 am

How is NW doing on their routes out of MKE? I've heard they are doing horribly on stuff out of MKE and IND.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Tango-Bravo
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:48 am

Why should NW be so foolish as to react to YX? If I were NW, I would be thinking "more power to you, YX." But then again I will be the last to ever accuse the management of a hardcore legacy like NW of thinking and acting rationally.

It won't siphon away any of NW's better-yielding traffic and it sounds like the YX fare is so restricted as to be mostly a mirage. Beyond that, what happens when one or more members of "the group" decide they have to do their own thing and travel at a different time/date from the rest of "the group?" Wherever there is a "group" reservation of 6-10 people initially booked on the same itinerary, by the time it's over there are almost invariably at least 2-3 different itineraries actually flown by members of "the group." Will the individuals who do their own thing end up paying a fare difference of $300-400 -- maybe more -- plus change fee because they no longer qualify for the group fare? And what if by one or more of the "group" changing from the group reservation the "group" becomes less than 6 pax? Will they all have their proverbial eyes gouged out by being required to pay up to the applicable non-group fares? Or is there a restriction not noted that the group-rate tickets are non-changeable and have zero value toward another ticket if not used for the flights/times originally ticketed? (ie use-it-or-lose-it)
 
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knope2001
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:49 am

I think there are some key reasons why this $99 sale is a net positive for Midwest and not a sign of trouble.

(1) It's Group Travel Only
This fare is good only for groups of 6-10 people. The passengers they carry at this fare will very likely be new stimulated traffic that would not have otherwise flown. How many groups of 6-10 people would Midwest have carried otherwise between MKE and MSP? But with a fare like this, there will be some family outings, groups of friends, etc that chose this as a getaway outing.

(2) Exposure and Publicity
A fare of $99 round trip is definitely something that catches the eye of those who get the e-mail. (Not sure if went to all Midwest frequent fliers, but that’s how I received it.) Yes, we get regular e-mails with fare specials. But an unheard of fare like this – though it is not one that most will be able to use – cements in the memory that Midwest flies to Minneapolis and they might have some great fares. That makes the person more likely to remember and check out Midwest. Remember that Northwest (and the airlines they acquired) has had no major competition in Milwaukee-Minneapolis for over 40 years. So Midwest needs to get the word out that there is a real choice in the market now. And getting people to experience Midwest, the 717 and the Humphrey Terminal will definitely make an impression.

(3) Yield Similar to Connecting Traffic
Is a $99 round trip profitable for Midwest between MKE and MSP? Not if that’s all they are carrying. But as supplemental revenue added to higher-fare local traffic, it’s probably not bad. It probably is somewhat similar to what Midwest earns for the MSP-MKE leg when they sell an excursion fare in a market like MSP-LGA. The fare MSP-LGA is much higher than $99 round trip, but Midwest has to carry the customer on four legs to earn that fare.

Again, this $99 round trip is mostly going to be sold to new traffic in a very specific range that is stimulated by the offer. It will cannibalize very little if any existing higher-fare traffic. And it will buy some exposure and publicity in the minds of some of the flying public.

As for loads, well, if you look out into mid July there are already many MKE-MSP 717 flights which are already booked to load factors in the 60’s and 70’s. Certainly not all, and this is definitely the high-demand Summer season. I don’t think this $99 round trip for group fares means they are having a tough time selling seats. They appear to be doing okay now, undoubtedly selling many connecting seats, too. As long as they keep seats open for the local business traffic that tends to book largely in a 14 day window, sales like this probably are a net positive.
 
vivavegas
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 7:58 am

From what I'm hearing from my co-workers flying into Humphrey is awesome! (have yet to make that run lately) From plane to curb is like 3 minutes. Glad to see they are playing off the lightrail to in that e-mail. Definitely a benefit!

Craig
MKE
MKE / EYW / LAS - The true trifecta of aviation!
 
n917me
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:06 am

Sales like this are also used to get the loyal NWA customers to give YX a try. Once someone travels YX, they usually will be a repeat customer, not only to MSP, but systemwide.
The load factors have been great system wide. Most of the flights I have seen have been full or very close to being full.
This sale is a good thing for YX. I have heard that NW load factors from MKE are not that great. MKE has been a fierce battle for some time, however with NW internal issues and financial issues the playing field is leveling out as NW may not be as focused on MKE as it is on it's internal issues. However, I fully expect NW to fire back. Let the battle begin!!!! YX=1 NW=0
 
m404
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:12 am

If the loads are so good as quoted above, then why cut the price?
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
n917me
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:17 am

Quoting M404 (Reply 8):
If the loads are so good as quoted above, then why cut the price?

To attract new customers.....new customers=repeat customers=additional revenue. Also , beat NW to the punch.
 
luv2fly
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:18 am

Quoting M404 (Reply 8):
If the loads are so good as quoted above, then why cut the price?

I have to agree!

[Edited 2005-06-22 01:30:55]
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
n917me
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:27 am

It is just great to see YX defending MKE!
 
airtran737
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:43 am

Quoting FutureFO (Reply 2):
The loads are awesome on the MKE-MSP run. Almost full on all round trips. 3 on the 717 and 2 on the FRJ

Actually I pulled up the loads for tomorrows flights (6-22) and they are as follows.

Flight 2010 is booked to 31 out of 32
Flight 301 is booked to 41 out of 88
Flight 305 is booked to 54 out of 88
Flight 2016 is booked to 27 out of 32
Flight 309 is booked to 64 out of 88.

Comes out to about 66% of the seats for the day being sold. Not to bad, but what is the break even factor for Midwest? I'm sure that the Skyway flights are making money only having 1 and 5 seats open respectively. The Midwest flights have 47, 33, and 24 seats open respectively.
Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:50 am

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 4):
Why should NW be so foolish as to react to YX? If I were NW, I would be thinking "more power to you, YX." But then again I will be the last to ever accuse the management of a hardcore legacy like NW of thinking and acting rationally.

By my numbers, at $99 a seat Midwest can make a killing on this route. The seat cost for the trip is about $30 a pax. They only have to fill 30 seats to break even.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:54 am

Does NW really care about MKE-MSP O&D traffic? Average O&D is only 424 pax/day, and there are currently 406 seats on YX (3 717, 2 FRJ) and 915 seats on NW (2 752, 1 753, 1 320, 1 CRJ, and 2 D95). It's only about a third O&D traffic (probably actually somewhat lower than that). I feel like NW would have more cause to worry if YX tried a similar stunt on MKE-LGA.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
n917me
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:55 am

For MSP to MKE the loads are as follows (22jun05)

302 booked to 53 of 88
2011 booked to 27 of 32
407 booked to 55 of 88
109 booked to 46 of 88
2017 booked to 29 of 32


I am curious, what NW numbers look like for 22jun?
 
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knope2001
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:55 am

>>If the loads are so good as quoted above, then why cut the price?<<

I'll echo N917ME's comment of "to attract new customers", because indeed once someone knows about and had experienced Midwest they are much more likely to seek them out.

But I do have a few other points to add to this question of "why cut the price if loads are good?"

(a) While loads have improved, there are still plenty of empty seats. Midwest exanded their capacity by 240% over the course of several weeks, and it's taking time to grow the traffic accordingly. What I've been seeing on seat maps the past couple of weeks is several flights with 60-75% of the seats sold, but others are only in the 30's, 40's and 50%'s. This major capacity expansion is only a few weeks old, and there's room for more passengers.

(b) The $99 round trip fare is, again, just a promotional fare for groups of 6-10 people. Seating is limited, and it will probably only add a small number of passengers overall to thise market. But these passengers are likely all or nearly all newly-stimulated traffic. It's very much like Northwest's periodic Mall of America one-day packages where NW has flown people up to MSP for remarkably low prices on shopping junkets. As long as you're careful not to dilute any business traffic that might try to use these fares, you're growing passengers and revenue out of thin air and carrying them for very little expense. This is the type of thing that Midwest is going for with this promotional fare.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:58 am

Quoting N917ME (Reply 15):
302 booked to 53 of 88
2011 booked to 27 of 32
407 booked to 55 of 88
109 booked to 46 of 88
2017 booked to 29 of 32

Ca-ching...$14K in profit right there.
 
n917me
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 8:58 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 14):
Does NW really care about MKE-MSP O&D traffic?

Obviously they do, look at the aircraft they run in that market.

BTW, did any notice the advertising that YX is doing in MSP? YX is finally being aggressive and I believe it is working.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 14):
915 seats on NW (2 752, 1 753, 1 320, 1 CRJ, and 2 D95

If NW didn't care, why do they have 3 large aircraft (752/3) going there? What are the loads on those flights?

[Edited 2005-06-22 02:04:12]
 
supa7E7
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:03 am

7E7,

Your numbers leave a lot to be desired. The fare is about $45 each way (in revenue), which would equal their costs assuming a CASM of 15c (a good guess for a 300 mi route in their config).

This new fare will pad their empty flights, so it's smart... but very risky to provoke an airline that can utterly replace YX in a heartbeat.
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
Cubsrule
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:06 am

Quoting N917ME (Reply 18):
If NW didn't care, why do they have 3 large aircraft (752/3) going there? What are the loads on those flights?

By your logic, when NW was running 752s MDW-MSP, they cared more about MDW than ORD because ORD didn't get any 752s. NW is probably the best US major at matching capacity to demand-- they can be as they have pretty much a continuum of aircraft. I assume they send the 757s because they fill them. There would be no other reason. I for one would rather fly a smaller a/c on the route. Quicker boarding, quicker deplaning, less of a wait for luggage, etc.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
n917me
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:11 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 20):
NW is probably the best US major at matching capacity to demand

LOL... if they were they would not be heading down the CH 11 path. Granted, that is not the only reason. Fuel prices have a lot to do with it.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:21 am

Quoting N917ME (Reply 21):
LOL... if they were they would not be heading down the CH 11 path. Granted, that is not the only reason. Fuel prices have a lot to do with it.

Who's better? NW can switch DC9-30s and -40s and 319s and 320s at practically the drop of a hat. I know you're a YX partisan, but please try to make some sense.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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knope2001
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 9:22 am

>>Comes out to about 66% of the seats for the day being sold. Not to bad, but what is the break even factor for Midwest? <<

The concept of "break even load factor" is very problematic.

The composition and yield of traffic makes all the difference in the world. Let's say for illustration there are four types of travelers in that market:

LB-Local Business (local MKE-MSP passengers who pay higher fares)

LE-Local Excursion (local MKE-MSP passengers who fly on chepaer advance-purchase fares)

CT-Connecting Traditional (pax in markets like MSP-MKE-PHL who pay normal fares)

CO-Connecting Opaque (pax in markets like MSP-MKE-PHL who get rock-bottom fares in places like Priceline)

And let's say these are the typical fares each group pays:

LB Local Business fares average $220 each way

LE Local Excursion fares average $105 each way

CT Connecting Traditional fares average $50 each way. That's because the average fare is $125 each way, but because of the connection, only 40% of the fare gets allocated to MSP-MKE ($40). The other 60% (MKE-PHL, for example) gets allocated to the other leg.

CO Connecting Opaque fares average $36 each way. Average fare is $90 each way but only 40% is allocated to MSP-MKE leg.

There are 217 people booked MKE-MSP tomorrow. Here's one possible breakdown of that traffic into the four categories:

LB 95
LE 55
CT 62
CO 10

That's $29,035 of revenue from MSP to MKE tomorrow.

Here's a different possible breakdown:

LB 21
LE 30
CT 55
CO 111

That same load of 217 in this instance produces $14,516 in revenue, or only 1/2 of first scenario.

So the notion of break even load factor is hard to reconcile with this kind of reality. If the cost for Midwest to fly MSP-MKE tomorrow is $24,000 (and this number iteself is really hard to know), in one case the 66% load tomorrow is very profitable. In the other case it is very much in the red.
 
burnsie28
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 10:02 am

Quoting N917ME (Reply 15):
For MSP to MKE the loads are as follows (22jun05)

302 booked to 53 of 88
2011 booked to 27 of 32
407 booked to 55 of 88
109 booked to 46 of 88
2017 booked to 29 of 32


I am curious, what NW numbers look like for 22jun?

NW for June 22nd.

NW 189 booked 20/22 and 137/160 (757-200)
NW 361 booked 20/24 and 201/200 (757-300)
NW 1951 booked 5/16 and 113/109 (DC-9-50)
NW 2816 booked 31/44 (CRJ-200)
NW 185 booked 14/16 and 106/132 (A320)
NW 1955 booked 15/16 and 96/94 (DC-9-40)
NW 847 booked 21/22 and 157/160 (757-200)

Thats directly from PARS, with that, i dont think NW is worried about YX  Wink
 
usflyer msp
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 10:37 am

Its been my anecdotal experience that YX's flights out to/from MSP are frequently behind schedule (along with 20 min connections at MKE) causing them to lose a lot of revenue because of the neccesity to FIM passengers to other carriers.

USFlyer MSP
 
nwcoflyer
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 11:01 am

Quoting N917ME (Reply 21):
LOL... if they were they would not be heading down the CH 11 path. Granted, that is not the only reason. Fuel prices have a lot to do with it.

Please! What a statement. NW has some of the highest load factors in the industry and the highest of the legacies. But high load factors clearly dont guarantee profitability. NW Does match capacity to demand, better than any other carrier.
The New American is arriving.
 
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knope2001
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 11:08 am

>>Its been my anecdotal experience that YX's flights out to/from MSP are frequently behind schedule (along with 20 min connections at MKE) causing them to lose a lot of revenue because of the neccesity to FIM passengers to other carriers.<<

Hmmm...anyone have any kind of stats to support of refute that?

The three MSP-MKE flights that seem to have the most connection potential are the morning originator (arrives MKE 7:05am), the early afternoon (arrives MKE 2:00pm) and the evening FRJ (arrives MKE at 7:02pm). Let's look at these:

The early AM flight has realtively tight connections since the 7:05am feeds a bank of flights that leave Milwaukee between about 7:30am and 8:30am. That originator doesn't seem to have notable problems being on time, at least in my regular morning check of the MKE flifo.

The early afternoon flight arriving at 2:00pm feeds a bank that departs mostly between 3:15pm and 4:00pm, so that flight could run rather late and not misconnect many.

The evening flight which arrives MKE at 7:02pm definitely has tight conx since the east coast flights it feeds leave between 7:25pm and 7:45pm. However Midwest tends to hold for these connecting passengers since by that time of night there are no other airline options out of MKE. I'm sure on occasion if the flight is running late enough the pax may be rebooked directly of out MSP.

From my own anecdotal experiences on Skyway to/from MSP (I have not flown into MSP since the upgrade) there were numerous ramp responsiveness issues and congestion problems at their old home service by Northwest Airlink. This meant that often (esp in winter) when a flight was anticipated to be on time or close based on the inbound, it took 20, 30 or more minutes additional delay because of a slow turnaround in MSP. Hopefully that's less of an issue now that YX is no longer at the mercy of NW* in Minneapolis.

My own experience has YX holding for connecting passengers more than most airlines do. That's a problem itself if it makes for cascading delays. But I think Midwest is significantly less likely to misconnect and rebook pax than other airlines are.
 
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knope2001
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 11:15 am

A few general comments related to several posts:

(1) MSP-MKE definitely *is* important to both Northwest and Midwest. It is a market with both significant feed for connections and significant local traffic...a mix that is potentially lucrative for both. And it is unaffected by discount carrier fares, so yield can tend to be stronger than markets where someone like AirTran, ATA or Southwest affects things.

(2) Don't get too overly giddy about strong loads (on either airline) in this the middle of a hot travel summer. High loads are without a doubt a sign of the times right now, and I'd be a little concerned if things were really weak. But on the other hand, filling seats isn't all that meaningful in the middle of a strong travel period like this. Even Independence Air is doing that!

(3) Remember how critical traffic composition and yield are when guessing how well a market is doing. If NW's load factor remains the same or better as always, but they are carrying more connecting traffic and losing significant local traffic to Midwest, that would be a meaningful shift that we'd never see in these sorts of numbers. On the other hand, if Midwest is failing to dent Northwest's franchise on MSP-MKE and is instead filling seats with junk traffic that would otherwise have flow out of MSP via Delta, AirTran, ATA, etc on junky connections, that's bad news for Midwest in spite of good loads.
 
Indy
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 11:23 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
How is NW doing on their routes out of MKE? I've heard they are doing horribly on stuff out of MKE and IND.

Can't speak for MKE but from what I've seen they are doing wonderful out of IND. Excellent loads (except for the STL route). Whether they are making money or not is a different story.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
mlsrar
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 10:06 pm

Quoting N917ME (Reply 7):
Once someone travels YX, they usually will be a repeat customer, not only to MSP, but systemwide.

Hmmm...Northwest has a larger customer base, and is focusing on expanding it. NW is offering 8500 bonus miles, and Silver Elite status to anyone who takes 3 RTs out of MKE on any NW flight, regardless of fare class. Not a bad deal, and even Silvers have luck with ugprades out of MKE...hey, a meal...something I havent had [to pay for] on YX in about 4 years.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 14):
Does NW really care about MKE-MSP O&D traffic?

No.

Quoting N917ME (Reply 18):
If NW didn't care, why do they have 3 large aircraft (752/3) going there?

Perhaps to feed connections to the rest of the world that is served from MSP? Before YX even served the market, and prior to their retirement, NW had 2 D14s on the route, not for O/D traffic though.

Quoting N917ME (Reply 21):
LOL... if they were they would not be heading down the CH 11 path

The bankruptcy threats are a large part of the fight for labor concessions, and are an effective negotiating tools when dealing with a labor monolith like the IAM. NW's solvency, when compared to other legacy carriers is far less questionable. In making a linear comparison, YX is bleeding much more than NW is. Who is the one deferring aircraft deliveries?
I mean, for the right price I’ll fight a lion. - Mike Tyson
 
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knope2001
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 10:50 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
How is NW doing on their routes out of MKE? I've heard they are doing horribly on stuff out of MKE

To sum up how loads have looked:
--The high-volume leisure routes have done okay, although except for LAS not what you'd want on a junky leisure market.

--The business markets did indeed do very poorly with the 1x/day Airbus schedule for the first year. Since switching to 44-seat CRJ's they have still be comparably weak except for LGA.

Here are Northwest's actual onboard loads for the Milwaukee point-to-point service that started almost two full years ago:

***Year One***
Northwest offered 1x flight to six destinations with Airbus 319 and 320 aircraft, plus they had seasonal PHX service for a few months too.

Here are load factors for the first 12 months of this service:

88.10% LAS
69.96% MCO
65.87% PHX (seasonal only)
61.67% LAX
34.30% BOS (actually this is first 16 months until conversion to CRJ)
34.25% DCA
33.96% LGA

***Year Two***
After the first year of service, Northwest did a few things:
--They converted the three business markets from 1x/day Airbus to 2x/day 44-seat CRJ.
--They added a few more spokes, including BWI, STL and MCI, with 44-seat RJs. MCI and STL served local traffic and provided significant feed for east-coast flights.

Here are Northwest's actual onboard loads for the Milwaukee point-to-point service so far for "year two". That is, since the changeover in July 2004 through March of 2005, the latest stats available:

Airbus 319/320
84.11% LAS
66.58% LAX
76.89% MCO
68.09% PHX (seasonal only)
63.05% RSW (seasonal only)

NW*
44-seat CRJ’s
61.88% LGA
44.67% DCA
41.06% BOS
40.95% MCI
40.87% BWI (Dropped in April 2005)
28.89% STL (Dropped in April 2005)
26.69% PIT (Started in February 2005)

***Year Three Preview***
Northwest has just made some changes in the past several weeks that will affect Year Three:
--BWI and STL dropped, PIT, YYZ and DEN just added
--LGA, DCA and BOS increased from 2x to 3x 44-seat CRJs. This definitely gives Northwest a more appealing schedule.
--More thru and connecting traffic at MKE as Northwest has worked to add more balance by adding flights to the west (MCI is now 3x, plus 2x DEN).
--Very aggressive fare sales out of MKE this summer, including a sale that lasted nearly a month with $79 fares to the east coast for summer and fall travel.

With the fare sales and increased connecting traffic at MKE, loads on the NW* flights are definitely increasing. But on the other hand, NW appears to be trashing yield for load factor with their sales. And flying someone DEN-MKE-BOS on a CRJ at leisure-fare rates, for example, isn't likely to be profitable for NW or repeat business from the passenger.

Systemwide load factor for comparison

NW load factor for the year 2004: 80.2%
NW* (Pinnacle) load factor for the year 2004: 68.6%
 
flyinryan99
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Wed Jun 22, 2005 11:51 pm

Knope...who do ya work for? You've got some great analysis of the MKE market, thanks! If you can't say, email me at flyinryan99@yahoo.com. I'd like to correspond if possible =)

Anyways, back to somewhat of the topic. I was wondering if YX is planning on adding any cities in the future. They have seemed pretty stagnent lately (besides Houston) and I understand they are going through a rough time right now. I think YX is a great company and was just hoping to see if they were going to be expanding at all and possibly see what markets they were looking at going into (if anyone knows). I wish them the best of luck!

[Edited 2005-06-22 17:01:11]
 
pilottim747
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 12:00 am

Quoting Flyinryan99 (Reply 32):
Anyways, back to somewhat of the topic. I was wondering if YX is planning on adding any cities in the future.

New service to IAH is starting July 10th. Otherwise I think YX has been pretty cautious with their expansion, and rightly so.

pilottim747
Aviation Photographers & Enthusiasts--Coordinate your life.
 
FutureFO
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 12:06 am

Houston Hobby is starting on 10Jul. That is the next city we are opening. Still waiting to hear if there are any others coming up.

Sean from MCO and MKE
I Don't know where I am anymore
 
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knope2001
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 12:35 am

Quoting Flyinryan99 (Reply 32):
Knope...who do ya work for? You've got some great analysis of the MKE market, thanks!

Thanks for the compliment! I don't work in the airline industry or anything related, but this has been a serious hobby of mine for years. The air industry was also the emphasis of quite a bit of my time at college. I am a Midwest Airlines Executive Level frequent flier on YX, and I've followed the company and its competitors pretty closely. I've regularly posted on the Yahoo Finance MEH board but have never owned MEH or any other airline stock.
 
flyinryan99
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:02 am

You're quite welcome  Smile

I realized my mistake on the Houston opening and edited it just as everyone else was posting....my bad  Smile Anyways, I ask if they are looking at any new cities because I would love to see them here in TOL (probably get flamed for this...). Back in 2000, they were rumored to be coming in here but the deal went sour when AirTran announce service to ATL and nothing has been mentioned since. I think TOL would be a pretty good match for YX. I say this because the market hardly has a variety of airlines (and variety of jobs for me): AA, DL, NW, and CO (T9 doesn't count). Flights to MKE would continue to open up options for the west and would be decent on o/d also. When I worked at TZ, we constantly had people connecting to MKE. One may look at the DOT's O/D stats and say they are crappy, but take 10% of DTW's O/D stats and you get Toledo travellers. When a no named product of ATA came into town, I had my doubts as to how well it would be embraced with the market. Well, it was greatly embraced, so much to the point it was the second airline in boardings last year at this time. I would have no doubts that flights to MKE would do well out of here. I wouldn't mind 4 Beeches a day to MKE to start off but I know they could handle bigger planes. I think opening a few more feeder cities with decent O/D to MKE and opening a few more mainline stations (albeit slowly) would help increase some revenue and product awareness and passengers. Comments?
 
sideflare75
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:05 am

Quoting Mlsrar (Reply 30):
In making a linear comparison, YX is bleeding much more than NW is. Who is the one deferring aircraft deliveries?

Can you provide some kind of hard numbers to back up these claims. In the first quarter of this year NW's cash on hand decreased by 327 million. YX's went up 3.2 million. At this rate even a giant like NW will run out of money eventually.

And when exactly is YX deferring deliveries. Rumor around here is that they are looking at adding to the -80 fleet by buying some -83's. Again just a rumor I've heard so take that for what it's worth.
 
vivavegas
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:36 am

Quoting Sideflare75 (Reply 37):
And when exactly is YX deferring deliveries. Rumor around here is that they are looking at adding to the -80 fleet by buying some -83's. Again just a rumor I've heard so take that for what it's worth.

They probably referring to the oft-delay ERJ program (not a good fit for Skyway in my opinion, would rather see a Q400 in Skyway Blue).

The -80's would me much appreciated if they can be got for a decent price, BTW - does YX still have to the manpower to do the refurbs they were known for in the late 90's on the Mad Dogs?

Craig
MKE
MKE / EYW / LAS - The true trifecta of aviation!
 
sideflare75
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:42 am

Quoting Vivavegas (Reply 38):
The -80's would me much appreciated if they can be got for a decent price, BTW - does YX still have to the manpower to do the refurbs they were known for in the late 90's on the Mad Dogs?

No all the manpower is gone. We even have openings on our schedules that just took effect. We are running pretty lean on the maintenance side of things but if that's what it takes...
 
SkyexRamper
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 7:47 am

Quoting Vivavegas (Reply 38):
(not a good fit for Skyway in my opinion, would rather see a Q400 in Skyway Blue).

Oh geezz...now where would we put more than 2 Q400s, because thats about all we could fit @ D52.
Good Luck to all Skyway Pilots! It's been great working with you!
 
vivavegas
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 8:08 am

Quoting SkyexRamper (Reply 40):
Oh geezz...now where would we put more than 2 Q400s, because thats about all we could fit @ D52.

Remember, things aren't always constant.... i.e. US West? Looks like a bit of space might open on that end of "D".

Before anyone says it - "Bombardier says the Q400's breakeven load factor for a 360km (195nm) stage length will be just 29 passengers."

Craig
MKE
MKE / EYW / LAS - The true trifecta of aviation!
 
n917me
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:32 am

Quoting Mlsrar (Reply 30):
Hmmm...Northwest has a larger customer base, and is focusing on expanding it

Really???? Thank you for the insight, Captain Obvious! Of Course NW has a larger customer base as they are ar WORLDWIDE carrier!

Quoting Mlsrar (Reply 30):
NW is offering 8500 bonus miles, and Silver Elite status to anyone who takes 3 RTs out of MKE on any NW flight, regardless of fare class. Not a bad deal, and even Silvers have luck with ugprades out of MKE...

Sounds like a desperation move to me.

Quoting Mlsrar (Reply 30):
YX is bleeding much more than NW is. Who is the one deferring aircraft deliveries?

Actually, MIDWEST is not deferring A/C , we are however looking into getting some decent used 88's or MD 95's.
Please provide something to back up the claim that YX is bleeding much more than NW.
 
airtran737
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:54 am

Quoting N917ME (Reply 42):
Actually, MIDWEST is not deferring A/C , we are however looking into getting some decent used 88's or MD 95's.

Actually YX has changed the delivery slots on the 717 to one a quarter. Also, YX has said that they will not exercise their options for the 25 additional 717's that were in the initial order. There are no used 717's or as you call it MD-95's available. When one does become available it paints its self green and white and lands in ATL.
Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
 
n917me
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 12:03 pm

Quoting AirTran737 (Reply 43):
Actually YX has changed the delivery slots on the 717 to one a quarter.

We are getting one in October and one in December of this year (two in Q4). Technically not exercising options is not deferring.
 
FutureFO
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 1:35 pm

Also there have been rumours about a replacement for the -80's. I have heard from some pilots about either the used 757-200 market or the 737NG market. Go to a commonfleet type once the -80's have used their life to the end.


Sean from MCO and MKE
I Don't know where I am anymore
 
mlsrar
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 9:23 pm

Quoting N917ME (Reply 42):

Really???? Thank you for the insight, Captain Obvious! Of Course NW has a larger customer base as they are ar WORLDWIDE carrier!

But not Milwaukee's "hometown," carrier. Somewhat of a misnomer considreing NW carriers more pax out of MKE

Quoting N917ME (Reply 42):
Sounds like a desperation move to me.

I guess you need to evaluate the differences between moves of desperation, and those to build loyalty, especially to customers who might otherwise find themselves flying competitive carriers. WorldPerks is one of the most loyal and generous programs, why not enhance it and entice customers? YX really has no benefits to offer their elite or top-tier passengers. Just a mileage bonus and a discount on a lounge membership maybe. At least I can score a wider seat and a free meal most of the time. Hell, even silvers get upgraded in most instances out of MKE on the nonstops.

Quoting N917ME (Reply 42):
Actually, MIDWEST is not deferring A/C

If you're a YX employee, log onto YXNet, and read Restructuring Update #15
Our Future Is In Our Hands


Just do a search on 'defer' on the intranet and you shoul have no problems finding:

"Finally, we have adjusted our fleet plan and delivery schedules. We will continue to accept Boeing 717s at our current rate of one each month through March 2004, when the deliveries will change to quarterly. Under the new schedule, Midwest will acquire the 25 717s it has ordered by October 2006. We will also defer our acquisition of Embraer regional jets from January 2004 to July 2006, during which time the availability of long-term financing is expected to improve. These changes will allow us to manage our growth to match current economic realities."
I mean, for the right price I’ll fight a lion. - Mike Tyson
 
A330323X
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:21 pm

Quoting Mlsrar (Reply 30):
Hmmm...Northwest has a larger customer base, and is focusing on expanding it. NW is offering 8500 bonus miles, and Silver Elite status to anyone who takes 3 RTs out of MKE on any NW flight, regardless of fare class. Not a bad deal



Quoting N917ME (Reply 42):
Sounds like a desperation move to me.

Ha, that's nothing. US and DL are offering Silver status for a single flight out of each other's key markets.  Silly
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
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knope2001
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 10:44 pm

Quoting Mlsrar (Reply 46):
But not Milwaukee's "hometown," carrier. Somewhat of a misnomer considreing NW carriers more pax out of MKE

Not even close.

The most recent monthly stats show that Midwest carried almost twice the number of passengers that Northwest did at MKE. Here are the breakdowns for April:

Midwest Airlines 229,829
Northwest Airlines 117,623
Midwest Connect 72,389
Northwest Airlink 15,636

If you look at the YX brand versus the NW brand at Milwaukee, for every 100 passengers that flew the Midwest brand, only 38.3 flew the Northwest brand.

Northwest has not been the largest carrier in Milwaukee for quite a few years.
 
airtran737
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RE: YX Vs NW - Round 1 - MKE-MSP

Thu Jun 23, 2005 11:06 pm

Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 48):
The most recent monthly stats show that Midwest carried almost twice the number of passengers that Northwest did at MKE. Here are the breakdowns for April:

Midwest Airlines 229,829
Northwest Airlines 117,623
Midwest Connect 72,389
Northwest Airlink 15,636

How many of those Midwest People are O/D traffic? We know that 95% of the NW ones are, but I am curious about the YX.
Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever

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