isitsafenow
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Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:46 am

An airline analysts said today at a transportation aviation subcommittee meeting that DL has a 55 percent chance of filing for chapter 11 by June of 06 and NW a 43 percent if congress does nothing about pension laws and oil prices remain stable at current levels. He added that AA and CO has a less than 50 percent today of filing within one year but that will change if congress does NOT change the pension laws.
In another reading NW pensions are underfunded by 3.8 billion dollars but UA is closer to 9 billion.
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LUV4JFK
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:14 am

And here we all thought the best financially of the big 6 were Northwest and Continental. I guess, for now, Continental seems to be keeping its head above water.

LUV4JFK
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Planesmart
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:15 am

Less financially secure airlines have improved their survival outlook by significantly reducing costs while in Chap 11. This is creating an entirely forseeable ripple effect, where airlines that were / are more financially secure are eyeing opportunities to achieve similar savings.

Question is when, not if, remaining legacies will head into Chap 11. Reality is that if they don't extract similar cost savings, sooner of later they will have to go there.

Or Congress could change Chap 11 laws, ensuring some better run airlines will have to negotiate similar savings or fail.
 
United Airline
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:39 am

Can you please post the link? Thanks
 
burnsie28
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Fri Jun 24, 2005 5:15 am

Funny, because management hasnt even threatened Chapter 11, they have even said they wont likely go into Chap. 11 for protection (like UA and US) because it would cost far too much.
 
isitsafenow
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Fri Jun 24, 2005 5:16 am

UNITEDAIRLINE...www.usaviation.com then go to aviation news. There's a lot of up-to-date info thereand it changes daily.
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FI642
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Sat Jun 25, 2005 1:26 am

NEVER count NW out. Things there are not as bad as everyone (including management) wants folks to believe.
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Tornado82
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Sat Jun 25, 2005 10:19 am

Quoting FI642 (Reply 6):
NEVER count NW out. Things there are not as bad as everyone (including management) wants folks to believe.

NW has alot of olllllllllllllld planes. Yeah they're "paid for" now... but if they're not turning huge profits now, they sure as hell won't be turning them when they have to (by regulations) replace those DC9's and take on a whole bunch of leases.
 
jumbojet
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Sat Jun 25, 2005 11:23 pm

Here is an article as it relates to Delta's woes. In particular, here are two quotes from the article. It seems troublesome indeed for DL

"Runte wrote that it was going to be "exceptionally challenging for the company to avoid a liquidity-induced bankruptcy."

""We have great admiration for the savings undertaken by the company," Runte wrote. "However, as (Delta chief executive officer Gerald) Grinstein paraphrased Vince Lombardi in a recent interview - 'sometimes the clock just runs out.' "

"Runte also said it would be difficult for Delta to "hedge" any of its fuel - or lock in lower prices on a contract basis - because of its lack of credit"

Finally, here is the link to the whole article

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d.../20050625/BIZ01/506250332/1076/BIZ
 
clipperno1
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Sun Jun 26, 2005 4:05 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 7):
NW has alot of olllllllllllllld planes.

Gee, thanks for bringing that up. I totally forgot about it.  checkmark 

Quoting Jumbojet (Reply 8):
"However, as (Delta chief executive officer Gerald) Grinstein paraphrased Vince Lombardi in a recent interview - 'sometimes the clock just runs out.' "

Whoa, now that's a motivation boost for employees.
"I really don't know one plane from the other. To me they are just marginal costs with wings."� Alfred Kahn, 1977
 
Tornado82
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RE: Airline Analyst Says DL And NW Lean To 11.

Sun Jun 26, 2005 7:54 am

Quoting ClipperNo1 (Reply 9):


Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 7):
NW has alot of olllllllllllllld planes.

Gee, thanks for bringing that up. I totally forgot about it. checkmark

Yeah I know THAT part was obvious... but the point I made with it seems valid. If they claim that keeping the DC-9s (which I'm totally indifferent to, I'm not Pro nor Con old planes) is helping them save loads of money because they are owned and paid off... and we all know that some of the DC-9s are approaching the end of their "legal" lives and are being retired in that time frame... they'll need replaced in the not-so-distant future by the regulations. That's definitely going to cost more in lease rates than it does to just maintain the old gas guzzlers now. So, replacement time could prove very costly for NW within a few years.