SNATH
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Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:10 am

Randy's latest blog entry is about the B747Adv. No decision yet, but apparently, Boeing feels positive about a launch this year, which will mean 2008 rollout and 2009 EIS.

http://www.boeing.com/randy



I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

Tony

[Edited 2005-06-24 03:13:16]
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flyAUA
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:16 am

In a news briefing during the show, Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Alan Mulally told reporters that we'll probably decide later this year whether to launch the 747 Advanced. He confirmed that we've gotten "extremely strong interest" from airlines in the Advanced.

Well then just launch the bloody thing istead of just thinking/feeling/hoping to do so. It does make me wonder. They have thought of a great design for an aircraft, they have interest for it from the airlines. Get on with it then!!!
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United Airline
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:24 am

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 1):
Well then just launch the bloody thing istead of just thinking/feeling/hoping to do so. It does make me wonder. They have thought of a great design for an aircraft, they have interest for it from the airlines. Get on with it then!!!

Exactly! Get on with it and launch the damn thing! They already said that they have recieved extremely strong interest from different parts of the world!
 
flyAUA
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:29 am

On another note, looking at those images, I am guessing they are not changing the size of the upper deck? I was wondering if they decided to add more seats to it or keep it unchanged in that sense.
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ikramerica
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:29 am

Yeah, the longer they wait, the less sense it makes. Do it now, not six months from now, have it fly by the Olympics in 2008, otherwise just stop talking about it, B!

PS - that 747Adv Freighter looks funny with the short hump on the long plane.
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SNATH
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:50 am

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 3):
I am guessing they are not changing the size of the upper deck?

Actually, they are. Slightly. Look at this image (from another of Randy's blogs!!!):

http://www.boeing.com/randy/images/747a01_lg.jpg

The two dark stripes are the extensions that will be added. So, yes, the upper deck is slightly longer, due to the extension in front of the wing.

Tony
Nikon: we don't want more pixels, we want better pixels.
 
flyAUA
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 10:55 am

Quoting SNATH (Reply 5):
The two dark stripes are the extensions that will be added. So, yes, the upper deck is slightly longer, due to the extension in front of the wing.

Cool! That's what I was hoping they would do with a newer version, although they haven't done it to the extent I would have imagined. But thanks for the explanation  Smile
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DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:13 am

>> Well then just launch the bloody thing istead of just thinking/feeling/hoping to do so.

The same could be said of some of their competitor's products  eyebrow 

Does anyone else think the engines look way disproportional? The GEnx variant on the Adv will be slightly smaller than the 787/A350 variant, but those engines still look massive compared to the current 744 fair...
 
flyAUA
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:15 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 7):
The same could be said of some of their competitor's products

Are you referring to Airbus? Which aircraft are they talking about which hasn't officially been launched yet? None. Thank you and goodnight  wave 
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boeingbus
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:27 am

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 8):
Are you referring to Airbus? Which aircraft are they talking about which hasn't officially been launched yet? None.

Actually DFW is right, the A350, Airbus stated that maybe launched in September. So the 747 Advanced could potentially be launched before the A350...

Cheers!
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flyAUA
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:39 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 9):
Actually DFW is right, the A350, Airbus stated that maybe launched in September. So the 747 Advanced could potentially be launched before the A350...

That was the "full industrial launch". Get your facts straight! How many orders does the A350 have? More than one hundred! How many orders does the B747adv have? None, cus it's not even being offered to the airlines. I rest my case  Smile
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CM767
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:45 am

"No doubt the 747 Advanced with the new-technology GEnx engines in development for the 787 Dreamliner would be more efficient than the much larger A380"


If Boeing could pull that out, definitely they have a winner on their hands, on the other hand since early figures for the A380 are better than expected, is a little hard for me to believe that they can make it.
But The Best Thing God Has Created Is A New Day
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:47 am

Correct. The A350 has an authority to offer, the 747Adv does not, but neither has been launched, and the 747Adv could still be launched before the A350 if the authority to offer comes at the same time.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
flyAUA
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:52 am

Quoting CM767 (Reply 11):
"No doubt the 747 Advanced with the new-technology GEnx engines in development for the 787 Dreamliner would be more efficient than the much larger A380"

Yeah I saw that comment too. This guy talks like the Boeing equivalent of Airbus' Leahy. Truly nauseating   

Anyways, I find it very hard to believe that a B747 with less seats can produce lower costs per seat, than an A380 would. It would have to be in the range of +/- 30% cheaper to operate than the B744 to actually have lower per seat costs than the A380. It's hard (if not impossible) to make a B747-size aircraft produce per seat costs lower than an A380 without the economies of scale created by additional rows.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
and the 747Adv could still be launched before the A350 if the authority to offer comes at the same time.

Correct! I am not saying it will not be. I am just saying they should get on with it while the airlines are still interested in a 747ADV. And for all I know, I really hope that Boeing does launch it very soon. There has been a lot of lip-service lately. That's all I am saying

[Edited 2005-06-24 04:54:51]
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worldxplorer
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:05 pm

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 1):
They have thought of a great design for an aircraft, they have interest for it from the airlines. Get on with it then!!!

AMEN! I am sure will be launched - but the delay is mystery to me. (Waiting for more commitments?)

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 7):
Does anyone else think the engines look way disproportional?

They certainly take some getting used to. But can you remember the first time you saw a 777 and those massive engines?! I fell in love immediately. You could just see the power. That was when I really noticed how small the A340's engines were. I have no doubt the 747ADV will be the same. We will look back on 747-200's, 300's etc, and say "Look at those dinky engines, that just looks goofy."  Smile

WorldXplorer
 
norcal
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:14 pm

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 13):
Yeah I saw that comment too. This guy talks like the Boeing equivalent of Airbus' Leahy. Truly nauseating

Randy is in no way like Lehay. He actually had some kind things to say about the A380 and congratulated them in a blog entry after the first flight. Lehay has never said anything positive about Boeing. I think hell will freeze over and pigs will fly before Lehay congratulates Boeing on the 787.

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 13):
Anyways, I find it very hard to believe that a B747 with less seats can produce lower costs per seat, than an A380 would. It would have to be in the range of +/- 30% cheaper to operate than the B744 to actually have lower per seat costs than the A380.

I agree with you on that

Quoting CM767 (Reply 11):
If Boeing could pull that out, definitely they have a winner on their hands, on the other hand since early figures for the A380 are better than expected, is a little hard for me to believe that they can make it.

Any more info on the flight testing, links or anything?
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:15 pm

>> AMEN! I am sure will be launched - but the delay is mystery to me. (Waiting for more commitments?)

The issue of A350 launch was discussed in length at an EADS boardmeeting only a week or two before the Paris Airshow, and the decision was made to wait until September to consider product launch. Why the wait? We could go into that all day, but with the so-called "hundreds" of orders they had to have a clue of, one does wonder why launch sooner than later.

Financing, exact tech specs, supplier issues, etc could all be contributing factors... but I find it supremely ironic that FlyAuA chide Boeing for taking their time as if they were the only ones in the industry to do so  Wink

>> Thank you and goodnight

Always the comedian...

>> I find it very hard to believe that a B747 with less seats can produce lower costs per seat, than an A380 would. It would have to be in the range of +/- 30% cheaper to operate than the B744 to actually have lower per seat costs than the A380.

It remains to be seen if the Adv can beat the A388, but with drastically lower trip cost, it can come mighty close.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:25 pm

As to why the delay...

From this blog, it seams to be engines. They need to wait on the engines, and it seemed as if the final build of the 747A couldn't be set until the the 787 was ready to fly to be sure the engines live up to the promises, and the design of the plane would need to also wait for the engines to get further along. At least that's what I got from it.

Might explain the A350 delay too. The only reason these engines exist is because B and the 787 willed them into being, so for either airline to bet the farm on them before being sure they will be as good as is claimed would be silly. If the engines can't deliver as promised, both the A350 and 747A would need to get more weight shaved off of them before being built, no?
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gigneil
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:26 pm

The fact its, little AUA, that the A350 has not been launched.

N
 
worldxplorer
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 12:31 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 16):

My AMEN was purely from an aviation geek POV. As a Boeing fan and a 747 fan in particular I personally am anxious to see Boeing launch the ADV.

As to whether the A350 is considered launched yet seems to be in the eye of the beholder around here. For some, like FlyAUA it is already launched and the "Industrial Launch" is just a technicality. It seems that you interpret it differently. I tend to lean in FlyAUA's court on whether or not the A350 has been launched. For all intents and purposes it has. Have all of the financing aspects and other details been ironed out? Probably not, but a reasonable person will agree there will be an A350. I do not hear many people around here claiming the A350 will be a "no-go".

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 16):
but I find it supremely ironic that FlyAuA chide Boeing for taking their time as if they were the only ones in the industry to do so

But that is just the way he is. (Nothing personal FlyAUA, maybe it's all the Redbulls that make you so punchy sometimes)  wink 
 
nirvarma
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 1:08 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 16):
but I find it supremely ironic that FlyAuA chide Boeing for taking their time as if they were the only ones in the industry to do so

Not really that surprising really....when you look at his signature... duck 

Cheers
NV
 
sv11
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 1:41 pm

I think if 747Adv can deliver better/equal seat mile costs than A380, it would do well in the marketplace.

sv11
 
B2707SST
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 1:59 pm

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 16):
I find it very hard to believe that a B747 with less seats can produce lower costs per seat, than an A380 would. It would have to be in the range of +/- 30% cheaper to operate than the B744 to actually have lower per seat costs than the A380.

I'm sure Boeing and Airbus each have their own set of figures showing their aircraft on top, but there is some reason to believe the A380 is vulnerable to attack from below.

Aircraft efficiency can be attributed to four factors: aerodynamic efficiency, structural efficiency, propulsive efficiency, and economies of scale (spreading fixed costs over more passengers).

- Aerodynamic efficiency: the A380 holds an advantage, although the modified 747ADV wing will show some improvement over the 744 baseline.

- Structural efficiency: the 747 is in the lead here. Despite its use of composites and other advanced materials, the A380 is still a very heavy aircraft relative to its payload capacity. As Widebodyphotog's charts point out, the 747ADV hauls something like 27,500 pounds less payload than the A388 over 8,000 nm, but does so with about 175,000 lbs. less structural weight (see http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eral_aviation/read.main/2141155/).

- Propulsion: tie to slight 747 lead. The 787 engines should be as good, if not better than, the A380's engines.

- Economies of scale: the A380 wins here, but the 747ADV will narrow the gap over the 747-400 and also show improvement versus the 773ER, A346, etc.

It's hard to say which effects will predominate, but given the gap between the 773ER/A346 and the A380-800, the 747ADV should be able to hold its own.

--B2707SST

[Edited 2005-06-24 07:02:10]
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WestWing
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:03 pm

Amusing that Boeing still counts those four Philippine Airlines passenger -400s in their tally of 24 existing orders.

[Edited 2005-06-24 07:10:28]
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sv11
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:04 pm

I think the 747Adv engines would be a leap in tech over the A380 engines, which seem to be today's technology. This advantage the A380 won't have.

sv11
 
AC787
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:08 pm

"And right now there are 24 orders for 747-400s, both passenger and freighter versions."

Can someone just quickly tell me who the passenger 747's are for?
Thanks
 
katekebo
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:12 pm

The 747Adv is actually likely to offer lower cost-per-seat than the current version of A380 in 550 passenger configuration. The A380 was designed with substantantial growth potential into the 800 pax range, what makes the current version rather heavy in terms of weight-per-passenger, and is equipped with "older" generation engines then GEnx.
 
sv11
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:20 pm

Hmm, well the A380 might have growth potential but I don't think you will see the 800 seater any time soon.

sv11
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:24 pm

Quoting SNATH (Reply 5):
The two dark stripes are the extensions that will be added. So, yes, the upper deck is slightly longer, due to the extension in front of the wing.

To be specific, the upper deck of the B747Adv will be extended 80 inches. The other extension in the passenger model (behind the wing) will be 60 inches.
 
airbus3801
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:46 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 7):
Does anyone else think the engines look way disproportional?

Yes I do, and IMO, I think it looks ugly, I prefer the 744.

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 8):
Are you referring to Airbus? Which aircraft are they talking about which hasn't officially been launched yet? None. Thank you and goodnight wave



I was just getting ready to say that.....

Quoting Sv11 (Reply 24):
I think the 747Adv engines would be a leap in tech over the A380 engines, which seem to be today's technology. This advantage the A380 won't have.

True, but not so true. Are the engines realy going to make milestone-like changes that are going to cause the airlines to wait for the 747ADV. I don't really think so unless they are loyal 747 customers. I mean do we say that about every competing aircraft that comes into existance? No. Not that this is just any other competing aircraft, but you can still apply the idea in a way.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 28):
To be specific, the upper deck of the B747Adv will be extended 80 inches. The other extension in the passenger model (behind the wing) will be 60 inches.

That isn't much. I mean the upper deck will maybe be able to fit another row, and the main passenger area 2, it doesn't really make sense to me. Is that a great improvement on what they have now, somewhere like (in a 3-4-3 and 2-2-2) 26 more passengers?
 
Planesmart
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 2:53 pm

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 1):
He confirmed that we've gotten "extremely strong interest" from airlines in the Advanced.

Unfortunately, not enough firm interest to currently contemplate a launch.

Why the wait? B and existing / prospective A38 customers await further info on delays / performance. If the A38 has no further delays and performs close to expectations, the ADV launch will wait for a full blown 787-based replacement.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:01 pm

Window spacing is 20". 3 new windows behind wing plus 4 in front equals 140" equals 1 row of Y+ as 8 seats and 3 rows of Y at 30 seats.

412+30+8 = 450, the stated 3-class seating.

There is also a bit of rearranging for a larger entry "atrium" design. And it seams that the upper deck stretch is for pilot rest and a larger entry. Also using the crown space for crew rest combined with a pilot rest up top returns 2 premium and 4-6 Y+ seats to revenue service...
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norcal
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 3:22 pm

Quoting Airbus3801 (Reply 29):
True, but not so true. Are the engines realy going to make milestone-like changes that are going to cause the airlines to wait for the 747ADV. I don't really think so unless they are loyal 747 customers. I mean do we say that about every competing aircraft that comes into existance? No. Not that this is just any other competing aircraft, but you can still apply the idea in a way.

Aren't the 744 engines from the 80s? If that is the case then the new GEnx should make a huge difference over the older generation engines. Not so compared to the A38 engines though. Maybe a slight difference but nothing huge.
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:12 pm

Quoting Airbus3801 (Reply 29):
That isn't much. I mean the upper deck will maybe be able to fit another row, and the main passenger area 2, it doesn't really make sense to me. Is that a great improvement on what they have now, somewhere like (in a 3-4-3 and 2-2-2) 26 more passengers?

An additional 140 inches on the main deck plus 80 inches on the upper deck adds about 28 square meters to the cabin floor area. I find it very easy to believe Boeing's claim of 34 additional seats -- even assuming two more lavs.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 4:36 pm

My bad, "416" currently, not 412. Which makes it even more likely that 34 seats plus more luxury and lavs would fit no problem at all.
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antiuser
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 6:03 pm

Quoting WestWing (Reply 23):
Amusing that Boeing still counts those four Philippine Airlines passenger -400s in their tally of 24 existing orders.

I don't really know what's the story with the PR order, but if you mean they don't want it / can't take delivery, both A and B do this. An order is only removed from the order book/statistics after it's officially cancelled.
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na
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 6:39 pm

If after all the increasingly positive talk at Boeing about the 747 Adv. (its launch just being a formality), they still would step back, the management will have committed the most serious blunder in many years, and will be rightfully the laughter of the aviation world. It would be utter unprofessionalism.
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 6:56 pm

Quoting WestWing (Reply 23):
Amusing that Boeing still counts those four Philippine Airlines passenger -400s in their tally of 24 existing orders.

Amusing that Airbus still counts those five Iraqi Aiways passenger A310s in their tally of 5 existing orders  Wink .
On the topic at hand, in the first pic the engines almost look like GE-90s to me size-wise, whereas in the picture posted by SNATH, they look much smaller in comparison, and more reasonable size-wise I'd say.
 
N1120A
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:11 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 7):
Does anyone else think the engines look way disproportional? The GEnx variant on the Adv will be slightly smaller than the 787/A350 variant, but those engines still look massive compared to the current 744 fair...

Imagine what it would look like if the Trent 1000 was on offer?

Quoting B2707SST (Reply 22):
- Structural efficiency: the 747 is in the lead here. Despite its use of composites and other advanced materials, the A380 is still a very heavy aircraft relative to its payload capacity. As Widebodyphotog's charts point out, the 747ADV hauls something like 27,500 pounds less payload than the A388 over 8,000 nm, but does so with about 175,000 lbs. less structural weight

As it is, the existing 747-400 weighs 5% less on a per seat basis than does the A388 and has a higher payload/weight ratio.
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Jet-lagged
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:27 pm

It seems Boeing it stretching the anticipation of a launch. With this and other recent releases and interviews, they apparantly have a need to maintain credibility in the 747Adv's chances, without actually committing. I wonder why, unless they are trying desparately to get at least one airline to committ, by keeping telling everyone that interest is so high.

I've been doubtful about the 747's future, and Boeing's continued announcements of strong market interest, but no action, is starting to increase my skepticism that anything will actually happen.
 
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:30 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 38):
Imagine what it would look like if the Trent 1000 was on offer?

Persistent rumours suggest that it might yet be. Could that be another reason why the launch hasn't happened yet?
 
zvezda
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:42 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 38):
As it is, the existing 747-400 weighs 5% less on a per seat basis than does the A388 and has a higher payload/weight ratio.

The WhaleJet more than makes up for that against the current JumboJet by means of better aerodynamics and more efficient engines. However, once the Advanced closes the aerodynanic difference a little and has the more efficient engines, I really don't see how the WhaleJet might be able to compete with the JumboJet in CASM. The WhaleJet's aerodynamic advantage may overcome the advantage of the JumboJet's GEnx engines, but cannot be expected to overcome the huge weight advantage the JumboJet has.
 
MidnightMike
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:49 pm

Quoting PlaneSmart (Reply 30):
Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 1):
He confirmed that we've gotten "extremely strong interest" from airlines in the Advanced.

Unfortunately, not enough firm interest to currently contemplate a launch.

Why the wait? B and existing / prospective A38 customers await further info on delays / performance. If the A38 has no further delays and performs close to expectations, the ADV launch will wait for a full blown 787-based replacement.

Why the wait? Save the announcement for a big event, Dubai Air Show?
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 7:51 pm

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 42):
Why the wait? Save the announcement for a big event, Dubai Air Show?

In recent years it hasn't been Boeing's practice to save big announcements for shows.
 
na
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:04 pm

All signs show that the interest in the 747 Adv. has risen only very recently. Seems the trust in the efficiency of the 787 engines does something, increasing concern that without the new 747 a huge gap in the market will be yawning when around 2010 it becomes more and more pressing to replace 744s, the steep rise in fuel costs is increasingly asking for efficiency, and so on. Its also possible that the pricing is very attractive in comparison to the very expensive 773ER (the bigger 744 is considerably cheaper).
If Boeing would have launched the 747 Advanced at Paris, it would completely have stolen away attention from the 787 and 777LR.
 
whitehatter
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:05 pm

Quoting Jet-lagged (Reply 39):
I've been doubtful about the 747's future, and Boeing's continued announcements of strong market interest, but no action, is starting to increase my skepticism that anything will actually happen.

There are too many issues which prevent a premature announcement.

Boeing took a bath on the 764 and 753, and also struggled on cost overruns on the 777 program initially. They are presumably being cautious this time due to a combination of issues, including engineering, design and development budget. The 787 is a lock-in aircraft that can't fail to make them money. The 747A has a much lower potential to amortise the development costs over delivered airframes (hence the 764 comment), and having two major projects on the go could create funding problems if the 787 becomes problematic.

So they may appear cautious at the moment, but I would expect they are doing the rounds of the customers in secrecy at the moment and also exercising due diligence costing out the program.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 18):
The fact its, little AUA, that the A350 has not been launched.

Airbus do things differently.

There have to be subcontracts negotiated and signed before industrial launch. For instance building the wings. That adds a stage between starting to sell and starting to build, and another project milestone. So it's just a definition issue. Airbus don't use the same project roadmap Boeing uses. The 'launch' is presumably when they cut the first metal or break ground for a new facility.
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PM
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:10 pm

Quoting NA (Reply 44):
If Boeing would have launched the 747 Advanced at Paris, it would completely have stolen away attention from the 787 and 777LR.

Hardly. I wasn't there in person but in all the media reports of Le Bourget the 787 was strangely absent.
 
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:16 pm

Quoting PM (Reply 40):
Persistent rumours suggest that it might yet be. Could that be another reason why the launch hasn't happened yet?

I suppose, though RR would have to resolve the issues with making it Bleed-Air and they would have to use a cantilevered pylon

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 45):
Boeing took a bath on the 764 and 753

As has been discussed a million times here, those were both ultra-low cost derivative aircraft and Boeing did not take a bath on them
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:25 pm

Quoting Airbus3801 (Reply 29):
Are the engines realy going to make milestone-like changes that are going to cause the airlines to wait for the 747ADV.

It just could be the other way round - will they wait for A380s?

Airbus are now talking about first deliveries being delayed until 'at least April 2007'. And they have 150 orders to fill, which is about three years' production. If Boeing can achieve what Baseler says (entry into service 2008) - and they have a good chance, given that the 747ADV will be very much a makeover rather than a new design from scratch - the airlines (other than the A380 launch customers) could get delivery of 747ADVs earlier than if they opt for A380s.
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RE: Boeing's Randy Baseler On The B747Adv

Fri Jun 24, 2005 8:25 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 47):
As has been discussed a million times here, those were both ultra-low cost derivative aircraft and Boeing did not take a bath on them

and a million times it has been shown that position is wrong, as Boeing themselves have stated. Namely stated breakeven numbers and actual deliveries.

Merely repeating something ad nauseum doesn't eventually make it a fact. Nor does describing a design, build and certification program as being "ultra low cost" when it certainly is not.

Boeing stated they needed 150 sales or thereabouts to cover the 764 costs. Did they sell that many?

[Edited 2005-06-24 13:30:07]
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