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United787
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Posts: 2197
Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 12:20 pm

Halloween Crash Stats

Sun Jun 26, 2005 1:25 am

Is it eerie that Halloween, October 31, has been the most dangerous day to fly for the last ten or eleven years? Over the past 10 years, a person flying on October 31 was 15.5 times more likely to die in a plane crash. There were 7 accidents (5 major) on Halloween over the last ten years, resulting in 527 deaths. The average amount of fatalities for any other given day for the last ten years is 34. I have also concluded that more people have died on October 31 over the last ten years than any other day. Even September 11 has less fatalities if you don’t count the deaths on the ground.

RECENT CRASHES ON OCTOBER 31
1994 - American Eagle - ATR 72 - Indiana - 68 Deaths
1995 – TACSA – Cessna 208 – Mexico – 9 Deaths
1996 – TAM Airlines - Fokker 100 - Brazil - 99 Deaths
1997 - DM Construtora de Obras - Citation I – Brazil – 3 Deaths
1999 - Egypt Air - Boeing 767 – Nantucket - 217 Deaths
2000 - Singapore Airlines - Boeing 747 – Taiwan - 83 Deaths
2000 - ACA-Ancargo Air - Antonov 26 – Angola – 48 Deaths

OTHER OCTOBER 31 CRASHES
1950 - BEA - Vickers Viking – England - 29 Deaths
1954 – TAA – Vickers Viscount – Australia – 3 Deaths
1969 – Pittston Co. – Rockwell 1121 – Virginia – 3 Deaths
1972 – Dassault – Falcon 10 – France – 2 Deaths
1979 - Western Air Lines - DC-10 – Mexico - 72 Deaths
1981 – Cameroon Airlines – DHC-6 Twin Otter – Cameroon - 1 Death
1984 – Village Airways – DC-3 – Philippines – 4 Deaths

Compiled from www.aviation-safety.net
 
EMBTucano
Posts: 234
Joined: Tue Feb 03, 2004 1:34 pm

RE: Halloween Crash Stats

Sun Jun 26, 2005 8:08 am

"When you believe in things that you don't understand,
Then you suffer,
Superstition ain't the way, yeh, yeh."


- Stevie Wonder
---- Use GNU/LINUX and be free! ----
 
JohnStevens
Posts: 42
Joined: Sun May 08, 2005 9:58 am

RE: Halloween Crash Stats

Sun Jun 26, 2005 10:11 am

Maybe there is a logical explanation, like people stood in scary masks at the end of the runway, or kids knocking on cockpit doors and "trick or treating" just as the pilot is about to land??! OK well maybe not.

I'm not one to believe in superstition but 15.5 times more likely seems more than just coincidence, very interesting. I might think twice before flying on Oct 31st in future.
 
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United787
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Joined: Fri May 20, 2005 12:20 pm

RE: Halloween Crash Stats

Sun Jun 26, 2005 11:36 pm

I am not a superstitious person, but this really made me wonder.
 
David L
Posts: 8548
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 2:26 am

RE: Halloween Crash Stats

Mon Jun 27, 2005 2:29 am

I'm not sure how you got those figures - I guess there are many ways to look at these things. Just to show what a sad person I am, I got the statistics from the aviation-safety website, threw them into SQL Server and came up with the following. I should say that, sad as I am, I haven't done a lot of QA here (it's Sunday, the sun's shining, I've got a Whisky Mac in my hand and the Simpsons are on) and I've ignored any accidents where the date wasn't given precisely - perhaps that's the difference. Sorry about the formatting - I don't know how to align columns here.

Most fatalities on a single date for each of the last 10 years:

26th Apr 1994 264
20th Dec 1995 160
12th Nov 1996 312
26th Sep 1997 234
2nd Sep 1998 229
31st Oct 1999 217
30th Jan 2000 169
12th Nov 2001 260
25th May 2002 225
19th Feb 2003 275
3rd Jan 2004 148


10 worst dates over the last 10 years:

Accidents - Fatalities
12th Nov - 7 - 633
31st Oct - 9 - 523
17th Jul - 14 - 341
19th Feb - 8 - 290
11th Sep - 8 - 276
3rd Jan - 6 - 273
2nd Sep - 9 - 270
26th Apr - 6 - 265
25th May - 9 - 264
26th Sep - 5 - 262