astuteman
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A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Wed Jun 29, 2005 4:34 pm

Last week's flight International had a superb supplement on the development of the A380 - probably about 20 threads worth.

I thought this one was interesting.

Airbus publicly accepts that the EIS of the A340-600 was not good, and the aircraft is STILL not delivering satisfactory performance.

It is a "stated corporate strategy for the A380 to be mature at EIS"

Airbus has set a despatch reliability target of 99%, which it intends to achieve right from EIS

The aircraft will have an unprecedented level of redundancy to allow "minimum equipmet release" of the aircraft to be much better (won't help the weight, I guess...)

There will be an unprecedented level of additional testing (such as the additional tests which identified the tail strength problem)

Airbus will rather delay the EIS and hit the reliability than have EIS problems (which I guess in part explains the current delays...)

There was lots more detailed stuff, but I thought these headlines would be interesting topics of conversation.

Looks like they're serious.......
 
DAYflyer
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Wed Jun 29, 2005 11:31 pm

Very smart to get everything right before EIS. I know another company that has the same philosophy......for 60 + years; this almost made it sound as if this were a new concept for Airbus.
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N79969
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Wed Jun 29, 2005 11:36 pm

If they achieve 99% at EIS, that would be a very impressive achievement.
 
astuteman
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 1:33 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
I know another company that has the same philosophy......for 60 + years; .

Boeing, I assume?

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
this almost made it sound as if this were a new concept for Airbus.

If the A346 is anything to go by, it is...............
Nevertheless, they're taking the right approach.
A
 
dynkrisolo
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:08 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 3):
Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
this almost made it sound as if this were a new concept for Airbus.

If the A346 is anything to go by, it is...............
Nevertheless, they're taking the right approach.

New concept for Airbus? Hardly. They had promised the same EIS reliability for the 346. If they have had so much problems with a derivative based aircraft, why would I believe that they can achieve 99% at EIS with the all-new 380? 98% would be commendable.
 
cwapilot
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:19 am

" If they have had so much problems with a derivative based aircraft, why would I believe that they can achieve 99% at EIS with the all-new 380? 98% would be commendable."

Well, it seems that they seem willing to keep pushing the EIS date back until they get it right...kinda like their very "fluid" break-even and profitability points...

"Airbus will rather delay the EIS and hit the reliability than have EIS problems (which I guess in part explains the current delays...)"
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flyAUA
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:44 am

Quoting Astuteman (Thread starter):

Yes I read that as well. Indeed a great supplement. Have 2 or 3 pages left until I can put it on my shelf and claim I've read it all Big grin

Regarding the topic... I am glad they have decided to do it this way. The dispatch reliability for the A346 was not what their target was. It explains why they have had to delay the deliveries as well I guess. Better delay it slightly (and have the media say they want to get it right) than deliver it on time and have the media slag them off (as was the case with the A346). Media attention in both cases is not desirable, but it's better to deliver a "mature" aircraft than an aircraft that still needs updates etc...  thumbsup 

P.S. Watch how this thread will turn into an AvB thread... just my 2 cents  sarcastic 
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cwapilot
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:51 am

"P.S. Watch how this thread will turn into an AvB thread... just my 2 cents"

Why does this quote always pop up whenever a thread has anything other than praises for the infinite wisdom and perfection of Airbus and its sacred cow (or whale)? The only way it will become an AvsB war is if the A cheerleaders with their thin skins cannot accept anything short of A worship. Try discussing it without throwing a hissy fit, and it won't turn into an A vs B war.
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ikramerica
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:58 am

I wish them luck, but it's going to be very difficult.

Any new airframe with new engines has gremlins, especially since the two test craft will not be identical to the "mass produced" later airframes.
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WINGS
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:13 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 8):
I wish them luck, but it's going to be very difficult.

Any new airframe with new engines has gremlins, especially since the two test craft will not be identical to the "mass produced" later airframes.

I totally agree with you on that one. Its going to be very difficult to achieve 99%. But nothing is impossible.

Regards,
Wings
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atmx2000
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 6:01 am

Being a 4 holer using engines derived from 777 engine tech, this would seem to be a challenging goal.
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mariner
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 6:09 am

Quoting Cwapilot (Reply 7):
The only way it will become an AvsB war is if the A cheerleaders with their thin skins cannot accept anything short of A worship.

Oh, I dunno.

Since the very first reply is in praise of Boeing and thus giving a comparative middle finger to Airbus, I don't think your thesis is valid.

cheers
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flyAUA
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 6:27 am

Quoting Cwapilot (Reply 7):
Why does this quote always pop up whenever a thread has anything other than praises for the infinite wisdom and perfection of Airbus and its sacred cow (or whale)? The only way it will become an AvsB war is if the A cheerleaders with their thin skins cannot accept anything short of A worship. Try discussing it without throwing a hissy fit, and it won't turn into an A vs B war.



Quoting Mariner (Reply 11):
Oh, I dunno.

Since the very first reply is in praise of Boeing and thus giving a comparative middle finger to Airbus, I don't think your thesis is valid.

Mariner, thanks for beating me to it. You stole the words out of my mouth  Wink
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brons2
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 6:38 am

Apparently Airbus is following the 12 step program.

The first step to recovery (380), is admitting you have a problem (346).

However, I agree with the other poster than even 98% would be a great achievement for a brand new airframe/engine combination. I think mid-90s is more likely for the first year or two.

For those that want to sing B's praises, the original 777 was FUBAR at service entry. The 741's Pratts flat out didn't work. I'm sure there are other examples.
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glideslope
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:29 am

The PUBLIC admission of the 346 problems is a HUGE step for Airbus. They obviously have gotten the message that airlines question their peformance claims these days (lack of 380 orders.)

Let's hope they get it right with the 380. The tail strength problems do however make me question some of the engineering. This problem really should not have shown up in flight testing. I for one am glad to see the Pre EIS testing going to such unusual lengths.
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DeltaMD11
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:47 am

Glideslope,
Nonetheless the problem is better to have shown up in flight testing then after the aircraft was put into passenger service and something goes wrong, no?
Too often we ... enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought. - John Fitzgerald Kennedy
 
SWISSER
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:59 am

At least one company admits that there product is not meeting it's initial goal.
But this is certainly measured to several factors when it is in service on certain airlines demands.
What time is top of descent?
 
boeingbus
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:21 am

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 14):
The PUBLIC admission of the 346 problems is a HUGE step for Airbus.

well, wait a minute here... this admission wasn't first made by Airbus.... you had most A346 orperators admit to these teething issues... Afterwards, we had the media such as Flight International basically do an expose on this A346 issues. Airbus had no choice but to admit this quality issues.

The A380 is using many new systems and technologies and naturally there are going to be issues popping up here and there... happens all the time with new and derivatives... but if it's properly tested as they say they will you most definitly see a better product than the A346.

Airbus is getting better at building aircraft so any under estimation of this company is being very naive. They are no longer an infant at churning out planes.

I'm just tired of posts that basically say Airbus can't build planes and the Boeing is going out of business.

anyhow, just my 2 cents.

Ric
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atmx2000
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 1:18 pm

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 17):
I'm just tired of posts that basically say Airbus can't build planes and the Boeing is going out of business.

I challenge you to find a post that says Airbus can't build planes and Boeing is going out of business.  devil 
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astuteman
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:35 pm

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 14):
The tail strength problems do however make me question some of the engineering. This problem really should not have shown up in flight testing.

Be careful.
The Flight International article says that the tail strength "problem" was SPECIFICALLY identified as a result of ADDITIONAL ground tests undertaken which imposed "unrepresentative" loads on the structure, prior to first flight (if you look through threads on this site, you'll see this showed up long before A380 flew).

Airbus spent several weeks debating whether to take ANY ACTION AT ALL, as there was strictly no requirement to do so.
The point within the article is that Airbus did take remedial action, because they are focussing on through-life longevity and reliability.

The remedial action, by the way?
To fit 2 kg (yes, a whole 2 Kg) additional reinforcement to the Trimmable Horizontal Stabiliser Actuator (THSA) brackets.

I personally think Airbus should be congratulated for extending the pre-flight testing and proving boundary, in the way that identified the so-called problem in the first place.

If you ever get bored, by the way, go back and look at the vicious anti A380 rhetoric that showed up in the threads of the time on this subject.
Then compare it to the reality described above, from the Flight article.
Enjoy.
 
Udo
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:56 pm

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 14):
The PUBLIC admission of the 346 problems is a HUGE step for Airbus. They obviously have gotten the message that airlines question their peformance claims these days (lack of 380 orders.)

Lack of orders? Last time I checked they had 159 firm orders from some of the most respected and profitable airlines - but probably you know more than we all?  Confused

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 14):
The tail strength problems do however make me question some of the engineering. This problem really should not have shown up in flight testing.

What exactly do we all know about that "problem"? You must be in a very comfortable insider position to be able to judge their engineering...  Yeah sure


Regards
Udo
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flyAUA
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:02 pm

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 14):
(lack of 380 orders.)

Well I don't know what you call "lack of orders", but exceeding the breakeven point by more than half, before the aircraft has even been certified, sounds like a nice order book to me!

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 14):
The tail strength problems do however make me question some of the engineering.

You can question all you like. Those ground tests were to demonstrate what would happen beyond normal operational loading/stress. The fact that this happened is irrelevant. Still Airbus decided to take remedial action. The only thing I can do is praise them, not bitch...
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N79969
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99

Thu Jun 30, 2005 8:32 pm

I read a second article today that the design would allow an A380 to dispatch with multiple systems broken. (I would assume that in-flight entertainment and meals could be among the systems that can be inoperable--which would make for a long and hellish flight) I am no engineer but I deduce that in order to achieve this goal, certain systems would have to exceed 99% reliability by a statistically signficant margin while other systems could slide.

I read in the same article that the A380 will have two electrically controlled actuator systems thus allowing controllability after a loss of full hydraulics. Is this possible? I wonder if the author captured the idea correctly or not.

[Edited 2005-06-30 13:46:44]
 
MarBergi
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:02 pm

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 21):
Quoting Glideslope (Reply 14):
(lack of 380 orders.)

Well I don't know what you call "lack of orders", but exceeding the breakeven point by more than half, before the aircraft has even been certified, sounds like a nice order book to me!

Did I miss something here   
The last time I checked orders for the A380 were at @ 160 JustPlanes.comand the break even point was edging up past 300. Now my maths may not be the best but I somehow think that you are slightly incorrect. As it stand they are 50% towards reaching breakeven point if that is what you meant. If so I digress, if not you really need a new calculator

[Edited 2005-06-30 14:03:59]
 
flyAUA
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:22 pm

Quoting MarBergi (Reply 23):
Did I miss something here
The last time I checked orders for the A380 were at @ 160 JustPlanes.comand the break even point was edging up past 300. Now my maths may not be the best but I somehow think that you are slightly incorrect. As it stand they are 50% towards reaching breakeven point if that is what you meant. If so I digress, if not you really need a new calculator

Excuse me... wrong wording. This is what my brain wanted to say as opposed to what my fingers said:

Well I don't know what you call "lack of orders", but exceeding half of the orders needed to breakeven, before the aircraft has even been certified, sounds like a nice order book to me!

Thanks for spotting that  bigthumbsup 
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beauing
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:24 pm

Could someone please post a link to the Flight International article?
 
astuteman
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 12:07 am

If you hit

www.flightinternational.com

their homepage has a link to the article, including a download request.

I subscribe to the hardcopy magazine, and found the supplement very informative (it's a 40 page magazine in its own right).

I know that 777-300ER is hitting 99%.
Does anyone know of a similar article describing Boeing's route to better despatch reliability. It for sure doesn't just "happen"........
Thanks.
A
 
astuteman
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 12:10 am

Sorry, should also have said:-

or E-mail flight@esco.co.uk

(telephone +44 (0) 1371 810433)

The article costs £5 UK in hard copy

Regards
 
mham001
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 12:12 am

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 24):
Well I don't know what you call "lack of orders", but exceeding half of the orders needed to breakeven, before the aircraft has even been certified, sounds like a nice order book to me!

I think you need to consider how many other airliners are apt to order more 380s. Not many more want or need them any time soon. That could of course change, remains to be seen, but factor in that approx 30% of the orders are from one airline and a case can be made that orders have been less than stellar.
BTW, I don't believe for a minute that while Airbus claims it will take 4-500 units to breakeven on the 350, it will only take 300 to breakeven on the 380. Maybe enough to pay the interest on the loans...If you Airbus fans do, I have this cool bridge for sale in the Arizona desert.
 
flyAUA
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 12:58 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 28):
I think you need to consider how many other airliners are apt to order more 380s. Not many more want or need them any time soon.

There are enough airlines out there that are operating their largest aircraft in the fleet and still need more seats for a few routes. I am not saying there is a massive market for this, but it won't be hard to sell another 143 units in the medium-long term.

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 28):
That could of course change, remains to be seen

But as you say... it remains to be seen. Only time will prove us right/wrong.

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 28):
I don't believe for a minute that while Airbus claims it will take 4-500 units to breakeven on the 350, it will only take 300 to breakeven on the 380. Maybe enough to pay the interest on the loans...If you Airbus fans do, I have this cool bridge for sale in the Arizona desert.

Well I don't see why I should believe you as opposed to the rest of the aviation analysts and the maker of the aircraft itself  scratchchin 

Source please for 400-500 units to breakeven on the A350??? That's what I do not believe.
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ikramerica
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:34 am

It's a 20 year plan and a 20 year plane, not a 5 year investment. Airbus wanted to be number 1 in size and first to market with the VLA, and so they will have to deal with slower sales until the demand picks up.

Hopefully the plane will show it's operators and others on the fence that it performs even better than they were promised and is very economical. Only time will tell.

Making a big plane is always a big gamble. The 747 was a gamble, the 777 was a gamble, the A380 was a gamble. The first two proved themselves to be worth it. The A380 may as well.
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mham001
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 4:59 am

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 29):
Well I don't see why I should believe you as opposed to the rest of the aviation analysts and the maker of the aircraft itself

Actually, while I can't speak for all analysts, like you have attempted, I can say that several have indeed questioned that 300 number(including one high-ranking ex-Airbus employee). Its been discussed ad nauseum, including the definition of "breakeven".

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 29):
Source please for 400-500 units to breakeven on the A350??? That's what I do not believe.

Noel Foregard iirc. I don't have a link, but the remarks were widely reported and discussed here. Assuming he knows what he's talking about, how is it a 5 billion dollar program will take so much more volume to pay off than a 13 billion dollar program? Maybe there is a reasonable answer. I have yet to hear it.
 
boeingbus
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 5:19 am

Quoting FlyAUA (Reply 29):
but it won't be hard to sell another 143 units in the medium-long term.

But its certaintly hasn't been easy for Airbus... Airbus has sold a whopping 5 units for China and 10 for UPS(cancelled 37 A300 - not a great trade-off)... and Kingfisher will never see this plan fly in their colors... about 30% of sales have fone to 1 airline (EK) and close to have to one region - the middle east carriers.

Look, the A380 is great plane and Airbus deserves a high-five for building her.... But they are going to lose money on this program. I will go as far as saying - if they break even they will have done alright. By the time they sell the 300 units they will need to upgrade her - so more money in the pit. Airbus built this for pride and nothing else.
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Udo
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 5:34 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 32):
Airbus has sold a whopping 5 units for China

Expect more to follow.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 32):
and Kingfisher will never see this plan fly in their colors

Why can you be so sure?

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 32):
about 30% of sales have fone to 1 airline (EK)

Nothing wrong about that, EK is one very stabile customer Airbus can count on.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 32):
Airbus built this for pride and nothing else.

Totally ridiculous. You can be sure the decision makers at Airbus and EADS do not act as simple-minded as some hobby-CEOs on this forum might think...  Yeah sure


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
redflyer
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99

Fri Jul 01, 2005 5:35 am

Quoting Udo (Reply 20):
Lack of orders? Last time I checked they had 159 firm orders from some of the most respected and profitable airlines -

Impressive order backlog before EIS, indeed. However, considering that in 2000 when the program was launched Airbus was claiming a market of ~1400 a/c of that size during the next 20 years, I'd say they have a lack of orders. They are already 1/4 of the way to the 20 year mark and with no competition in that category they have accrued roughly just a little over 10% of the orders they claimed were out there. And almost half of those orders are from ONE airline that has yet to prove its business model.

And let's not forget that after a flurry of orders initially, the orders have been coming in at a trickle lately.

And before anyone says, "Yeah, but they are at the break-even point so as long as they make money on the program in the next 20 years it doesn't matter", I say no one knows for certain what the break even point is since it seems to be a moving target - and it keeps moving up.

Regards,
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flyAUA
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 5:39 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 32):
Airbus built this for pride and nothing else.

Airbus has built this in response to airline demand. Why would they build something nobody wants to have. Clearly airlines want it otherwise they wouldn't have sold as many as they have already. If you think that the airlines are buying the A380 only for the sake of pride, or that the airlines a in the 80s bought the B747 only for pride, you need to wake up!

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 32):
But its certaintly hasn't been easy for Airbus... Airbus has sold a whopping 5 units for China and 10 for UPS(cancelled 37 A300 - not a great trade-off)... and Kingfisher will never see this plan fly in their colors... about 30% of sales have fone to 1 airline (EK) and close to have to one region - the middle east carriers.

Well in that case, luckily the world goes beyond Air China, UPS, and Kingfisher  Wink
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Udo
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 5:47 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 34):
However, considering that in 2000 when the program was launched Airbus was claiming a market of ~1400 a/c of that size during the next 20 years, I'd say they have a lack of orders.

We shouldn't forget what happened in 2001 and the years after. The airline business has just come back to pre-9/11 levels so I wouldn't draw fast conclusions. The orders will come, it can happen any day.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 34):
They are already 1/4 of the way to the 20 year mark and with no competition in that category they have accrued roughly just a little over 10% of the orders they claimed were out there.

Have they ever said when exactly they expect which numbers of orders?

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 34):
And almost half of those orders are from ONE airline that has yet to prove its business model.

45 is not almost half of 159...and EK have proven how to build up and sustain a successful business.


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
redflyer
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99

Fri Jul 01, 2005 6:12 am

Quoting Udo (Reply 36):
We shouldn't forget what happened in 2001 and the years after. The airline business has just come back to pre-9/11 levels so I wouldn't draw fast conclusions. The orders will come, it can happen any day.

I can't argue with that analysis; however, since we are now back to pre-9/11 levels, I would expect the orders to pick up considerably from here on out and we will be able to watch Airbus sprint to the finish line. If they do, I will be the first to eat crow. I don't think they will, though, but therein lies the essence of all these A v. B threads.

Quoting Udo (Reply 36):
Have they ever said when exactly they expect which numbers of orders?

Well, given that they came up with the ~1400 number to begin with, I'm sure they didn't just pull it out of their a$$. Some analyst or bean counter buried deep within A's organization obviously did some analysis to come up with that figure so I'm assuming A knows with some confidence when the orders are going to materialize. I can't imagine they would move ahead with a project of this size without some pretty exacting analysis to back up their proposed model.

Quoting Udo (Reply 36):
45 is not almost half of 159...and EK have proven how to build up and sustain a successful business.

I stand corrected; I should have said "almost 1/3 of those orders", which still buttresses my point. As for EK, yes, they have proven how to build up a business (which anyone with deep pockets can do) but I wouldn't exactly say they have "sustained" anything as of yet given their relatively short history. Especially in this business.
My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
 
Udo
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99

Fri Jul 01, 2005 6:26 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 37):
however, since we are now back to pre-9/11 levels, I would expect the orders to pick up considerably from here on out and we will be able to watch Airbus sprint to the finish line.

9/11 destroyed many plannings within a very short period of time so airlines have become more careful in placing large orders. Though we are at pre-9/11 levels, it still may take some more time until certain airlines make important decisions.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 37):
I can't imagine they would move ahead with a project of this size without some pretty exacting analysis to back up their proposed model.

I agree. But it's unlikely Airbus once planned a constant growth of the order book. I expect A380 orders to pick up fast from 2010.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 37):
As for EK, yes, they have proven how to build up a business (which anyone with deep pockets can do)

They have had deep pockets indeed, but they also have been able to justify the investments - by high loads, profits and worldwide respect.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 37):
but I wouldn't exactly say they have "sustained" anything as of yet given their relatively short history. Especially in this business.

EK have been in heavy competition with some of the most powerful airlines for many years - although they have constantly grown and gained market share. They have come a long way in their 20 years of operation.


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Udo
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redflyer
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 11:18 am

Quoting Udo (Reply 38):
9/11 destroyed many plannings within a very short period of time so airlines have become more careful in placing large orders. Though we are at pre-9/11 levels, it still may take some more time until certain airlines make important decisions.

Even though we're back to pre-9/11 levels "it may take some more time"?? Sounds to me like you're trying to cover your bases on the 380, in case it doesn't sell like Airbus claimed it would.

There is no economic reason why an airline - or any corporate entity - would turn away business in the face of obvious demand in order to be "more careful". Sure, someone may decide to take the safe route, but there's always someone else in the wings who will jump in and take advantage of the demand if it exists. That's the beauty of a free economic system.

And while your argument may have some validity regarding airlines' cautious approach, if anything, as air traffic has crawled its way back to pre-9/11 levels there should have been a commensurate increase in demand for the 380 as well as other models. On the contrary, what I have seen is orders slowing down for the 380 even as traffic has picked up - and even as orders for other aircraft models (from both Boeing and Airbus) has picked up.
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 11:35 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 17):
Airbus is getting better at building aircraft so any under estimation of this company is being very naive. They are no longer an infant at churning out planes.

I'm just tired of posts that basically say Airbus can't build planes and the Boeing is going out of business.

About time someone admitted to it. They are no longer at A330/A340 level, when they had ZERO experience at building medium sized long haul planes.

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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:05 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 10):
Being a 4 holer using engines derived from 777 engine tech, this would seem to be a challenging goal.

Actually, the engines are less related to the GE-90 than "the Alliance" would have you believe. RR was aggressive with their Trent 900 so during the sales process Pratt and GE were literally told by the airlines to "go back to the drawing board and offer something competitive with Rolls." Oh, the bearing, shaft, rotor etc. Designs are all derivative, but the level of finessing and detail required was huge. Margins had to be pushed to achieve promised efficiency. While there is an extensive test program I expect The Alliance 7200 and Trent 900 to both have a few bugs. However, with this long a test program, the Trent should have no problem ironing out the bugs in time. For the "engine alliance..." I'm not sure if there is enough time for a component redesign and certification.

Quoting Udo (Reply 36):

We shouldn't forget what happened in 2001 and the years after. The airline business has just come back to pre-9/11 levels so I wouldn't draw fast conclusions. The orders will come, it can happen any day.

So true. After all of the airframe retirements, the airlines have a little more capacity they can "create" through better utilization and then the orders will take off.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 37):
I would expect the orders to pick up considerably from here on out

Personally, I'm expecting the orders to occur in 2006 after quite a few airlines are capacity constrained in the long haul markets. Just my  twocents 

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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:12 pm

Quoting N79969 (Reply 2):
If they achieve 99% at EIS, that would be a very impressive achievement.

A dispatch reliability rate of 99% for a quad is impressive at any time. I'll be delighted if Airbus can pull that off within a year of EIS.
 
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 3:41 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
A dispatch reliability rate of 99% for a quad is impressive at any time. I'll be delighted if Airbus can pull that off within a year of EIS.

If by some chance they do hit this, would it have been worthwhile delaying the programme 2-6 months in order to achieve it?

By the way, when you look at the reasons for the A346 poor despatch reliability, not one of them is related to engines - it's all systems (fuel, galley, sanitary....). The 346 would be poor in this respect even if it was a 2 holer.

I'm increasingly convinced that "from an engine viewpoint", there is minimal difference between a twin and a quad these days in terms of despatch reliability.
 
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Fri Jul 01, 2005 4:18 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 39):
Sounds to me like you're trying to cover your bases on the 380, in case it doesn't sell like Airbus claimed it would.

No.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 39):
Sure, someone may decide to take the safe route, but there's always someone else in the wings who will jump in and take advantage of the demand if it exists.

But we have seen several airlines jumping in and ordering the A380 after 9/11.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 39):
as air traffic has crawled its way back to pre-9/11 levels there should have been a commensurate increase in demand for the 380 as well as other models.

You cannot compare an A380 to most other models due to its massive size. Even in case of a sudden traffic decrease (after 9/11) or a continuous decrease (economic crisis in Asia) airlines must be able to fill their seats. So it's likely some airlines are currently waiting until traffic growth guarantees year-round economic A380 operations, with risks at minimum. That's why I said earlier I expect a fast increase in orders from 2010.


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Udo
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99

Sat Jul 02, 2005 7:25 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 31):
Actually, while I can't speak for all analysts, like you have attempted, I can say that several have indeed questioned that 300 number(including one high-ranking ex-Airbus employee). Its been discussed ad nauseum, including the definition of "breakeven"

There are several big unknowns when discussing the "break even" point for the A380. One is the dollar:
"If we fix the euro/dollar rate at EUR 1.30, and based on what we have already done for the program (in terms of currency hedging), and also taking into account the higher development costs, we get a break-even point that is well above 300 planes," Camus said.
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_...y+but+shares+dip+on+A380+costs


The other is the price that Airbus is selling the plane for. It's been reported that they've been giving BIG discounts (40%). Finally, we don't know what the final development cost is and how much Airbus will pay in penalties due to the delays.
 
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99

Sat Jul 02, 2005 8:09 am

Quoting Udo (Reply 44):
You cannot compare an A380 to most other models due to its massive size. Even in case of a sudden traffic decrease (after 9/11) or a continuous decrease (economic crisis in Asia) airlines must be able to fill their seats. So it's likely some airlines are currently waiting until traffic growth guarantees year-round economic A380 operations, with risks at minimum. That's why I said earlier I expect a fast increase in orders from 2010.

I didn't realize there were so many caveats to Airbus' business model for the 380 to be successful. Based on what you have just said, it seems a lot sure needs to happen to guarantee their numbers are hit, like airlines waiting for a "guarantee" of perfect economic conditions.

Personally, I don't buy it. A lot can happen between now and 2010. Another economic recession (which seem to occur with fair regularity every 7 - 10 years, with or without war), SARS, Wars, revolutions, meteor strike, etc.

If Airbus' business model for the 380 is that strong - and at one time they certainly painted a rosey picture with claims of market demands for ~1400 copies over 20 years - then their order book should be able to weather an imperfect world.
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SE210Caravelle
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Sat Jul 02, 2005 8:18 am

EIS? Sorry but I'm not nearly as informed as most of you.

Thanks in advnace!
 
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Sat Jul 02, 2005 8:20 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 46):
perfect economic conditions.

Why would any airline purchase aircraft if economic conditions don't allow!? You are not making sense dude!

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 46):
If Airbus' business model for the 380 is that strong - and at one time they certainly painted a rosey picture with claims of market demands for ~1400 copies over 20 years - then their order book should be able to weather an imperfect world.

I would be surprised if they sell 1400 units of A380 variants within 20 years, but at least I am confident that it will be a successful project.
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Udo
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RE: A380 Entry Into Service (EIS) Reliability - 99%

Sat Jul 02, 2005 8:22 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 46):
Based on what you have just said, it seems a lot sure needs to happen to guarantee their numbers are hit, like airlines waiting for a "guarantee" of perfect economic conditions.

Don't take "guarantee" too literally. Certain airlines simply wait until they feel there's a constant need for the capacity upgrade.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 46):
Personally, I don't buy it. A lot can happen between now and 2010. Another economic recession (which seem to occur with fair regularity every 7 - 10 years, with or without war), SARS, Wars, revolutions, meteor strike, etc.

After 9/11 we know well anything can happen. But I simply mean expected traffic growth - without a major disaster.


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Udo
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