goCOgo
Posts: 680
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 11:24 am

How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 6:42 am

A friend of mine at work inquired about Independence Air today. He was looking to go to HPN in October, and was wondering if it safe to get tickets with FlyI, who are the cheapest. I told him that they were doing poorly, couldn't break even right now if they wanted to (based on someones quick calculation I read on this forum that their break even load factor was over 100%), and barring a buyout/bailout, they could easily be gone soon.

So, what do you all think? Would it be safe to buy Indy Air tickets for October? Are they longed for this world?

By the way, this thread is by no means meant to bash Independence Air, nor should any of you start. I am simply inquiring about their status.

(Edited so none of you complain about the title)

[Edited 2005-06-29 23:43:42]
"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
 
trident2e
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 6:46 am

That's the $64,000 question. People have been saying they'll be gone soon since they started, and they've all been proved wrong so far!
 
IflyI
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 6:56 am

Load factors are increasing (Just look at the bookings for the next month) and things are improving for us at Independence Air. I would have no problems with buying the tickets (that is not because I am an employee either, if I was not I still would buy the tickets.) I see things improving. We will still be here to serve you next year as well.

Jason in SAV
Independence Air - Go your own way!
 
dutchjet
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:01 am

There has not been much news lately - I Air now has about 10 out of its 12 A319s in service so that should help to improve their financial performance. The A319s will fly some longerhaul routes which should help yeilds and revenue and the new destinations will help make the IAD hub work better since more interesting connection possibilities are available. And, it is the high demand summer period when people are travelling and fares are higher, so I Air should be OK for the short term future.

My guess (and its only a guess) is that I Air will make it though atleast the end of this year.....the bigger question is whether this airline have enough money to make it through the difficult winter season when airlines traditionally loose money, a lot depends on the I Air's performance in the coming months. That being said, $60/bbl oil prices are not making things any easier, and its especially difficult for an airline like I Air that got off to a difficult start and uses small CRJs for many flights (which are not that economical on a per seat basis).....low fares and high operating costs is a dangerous combination.
 
AirWillie6475
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:07 am

I was listening to a travel show and according to them it's ok to buy a ticket from an airline that's about to be bankrupt because there is a new law now where the airline can't just take your money when it stops operations, instead they have a few days to accomodate you in finding another ticket.
 
avek00
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:12 am

DH is doing poorly as usual, though FWIW, I think their breakeven LF has probably fallen down to just below 100%. Or with higher fuel costs, maybe not...
Live life to the fullest.
 
LAXintl
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:22 am

It will be very interesting to see the Q2 numbers which will be released in the next month.
Its clear the airline will suffer a significant loss for Q2. Even higher load factors, reduced CASM due increased A319 flying will not offset the very poor yields FlyI has been getting and very high fuel cost the industry is suffering under.
During Q1 the airlines operating margin was an incredible -70% margin. So basically for each $1 the airline receives it spends near $2.
Another critical number to look for will be the cash on hand the airline ends the quarter with. Cash burn rate had been very high.

Check out the financial numbers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FLYI

My personal view would be to avoid the airline. Why subject yourself to the potential headache of something happening to the airline. Even if its in business whom it to say it will continue to serve HPN? FlyI has all ready trimmed its schedule and dropped out from several markets.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
lorm
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:32 am

Sort o' off topic,

Last month I flew in and out of OKC Will Rogers World Airport (nice new terminal), there were at least half a dozen or more Independence Air CRJs still in company colors with their circle logos removed, sitting on the north ramp by 17R. Also there was 2 UAX Dornier 328s parked in the same fashion.
Brick Windows
 
avek00
Posts: 3159
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:33 am

Based on the Q1 figures, and the various machinations of Q2, DH will probably report SLIGHTLY better figures than this for Q2 2005, but not by much.

"Independence Air - Freedom ain't all it's cracked up to be."


First Quarter Operating Statistics



(Decrease)
Three months ended March 31, 2004 2005 Increase
Revenue passengers carried 1,479,623 1,276,462 (13.7)%
Revenue passenger miles (000's) 631,489 578,456 (8.4)%
Available seat miles (000's) 961,747 963,284 0.2%
Passenger load factor 65.7% 60.1% (5.6)pts
Revenue per ASM (cents) 18.1 9.0 (50.3)%
Cost per ASM (cents) 17.9 19.9 11.2 %
Cost per ASM (cents), adjusted (1) 17.2 18.2 5.8%
Average passenger segment (miles) 427 453 6.1%
Revenue departures (completed) 49,873 40,020 (19.8)%
Total block hours 77,964 60,484 (22.4)%
Aircraft utilization (block hours) 7.8 8.0 2.6%
Average cost per gal/fuel (cents) 124.4 163.5 31.4%
Aircraft in service (end of period) 109 82 (24.8)%
Revenue per departure $3,496 $2,156 (38.3)%

[Edited 2005-06-30 00:36:21]
Live life to the fullest.
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:34 am

Quoting AirWillie6475 (Reply 4):
I was listening to a travel show and according to them it's ok to buy a ticket from an airline that's about to be bankrupt because there is a new law now where the airline can't just take your money when it stops operations, instead they have a few days to accomodate you in finding another ticket.

It is not a new law, it is a law that other carriers have to honor the ticket with a slight service charge of $25.00 I believe, and not sure if that is OW or RT and of course it is stand by with the other carrier. So again it is not a sure thing that is for sure.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
Avion346
Posts: 184
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:38 am

Yields are going up especially on the west coast flights. I'm even seeing a lot less "E" fares and a lot more "B" and "A" fares in Detroit. Tomorrow in particular both the "to" and the "from" legs for LAX, SFO (all 3 flights), SEA, SJC, and SAN are completely 100% sold out.
 
Chiguire
Posts: 1848
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:38 am

Well, I am not very familiar with the US market. I am just following a bit those discussions about FlyI.
From what I can say from the general point of view, it would be very unusual to see an LCC going bankrupt before high season.
If you take into consideration that they receive the money at the time of booking, their cash flow should be fine these weeks of the year - despite overall losses.
So if something happens, I would not expect that before September. And this counts for all LCCs around the world !
I would buy a ticket if travel is until September.
 
avek00
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:40 am

Quoting Luv2fly (Reply 9):
It is not a new law, it is a law that other carriers have to honor the ticket with a slight service charge of $25.00 I believe, and not sure if that is OW or RT and of course it is stand by with the other carrier. So again it is not a sure thing that is for sure.

Specifically, USA airlines are required to honor the domestic tickets of a defunct USA carrier on a standby basis, and may assess a reasonable administrative charge to the passenger (which in most instances should not exceed $25 one-way) in order to recoup incremental costs. That said, it's the summertime, and the odds of getting most anywhere on standby are slim at best.
Live life to the fullest.
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:49 am

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 5):
DH is doing poorly as usual, though FWIW, I think their breakeven LF has probably fallen down to just below 100%. Or with higher fuel costs, maybe not...

Are you a financial analyst/psychic?

You have no clue from the numbers above exactly what is going on.

also that data is 3 months old, as we know history does not pay the bills, today does.
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goCOgo
Posts: 680
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:56 am

Thanks for the replies! Now I can give a moderately more informed opinion to my coworker.  veryhappy 
"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
 
IflyI
Posts: 40
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 3:53 pm

Quoting Avion346 (Reply 10):
Yields are going up especially on the west coast flights. I'm even seeing a lot less "E" fares and a lot more "B" and "A" fares in Detroit. Tomorrow in particular both the "to" and the "from" legs for LAX, SFO (all 3 flights), SEA, SJC, and SAN are completely 100% sold out.

As is TPA, RSW, MCO, and PBI. Plus getting out of SAV as a nonrev is getting harder. Things are looking good. I am not a number cruncher, but I am a ramper. I load bags and people. Lately, I have seen a lot more of both going on to our aircraft.

Jason in SAV
Independence Air - Go your own way!
 
UA744Flagship
Posts: 1433
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:08 pm

Quoting Avion346 (Reply 10):
Yields are going up especially on the west coast flights. I'm even seeing a lot less "E" fares and a lot more "B" and "A" fares in Detroit. Tomorrow in particular both the "to" and the "from" legs for LAX, SFO (all 3 flights), SEA, SJC, and SAN are completely 100% sold out.

Every US airline is 100% jam packed tomorrow. This 4th of July has been especially strong and I expect the ATA (not the airline) to report record load factors for this holiday period.
no wire hangers!
 
LAXintl
Posts: 20183
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:28 pm

Tom Moore, FLYi president this week spoke at the Hunstville Rotary Club..

Here are some exerpts;


Low-fare airline may be forced to halt some flights

The president of the low-fare carrier Independence Air, hit with higher jet fuel costs like other airlines, believes that it has the "staying power" to continue service.

"We have struggled financially," said Tom Moore, president and chief operating officer of Independence Air, which started flying to five cities last June from its hub at Dulles International Airport outside Washington. It now serves airports in 45 cities, with more than 400 flights a day. But, "these are difficult times in the whole industry."

Fuel has grown from 12 percent of Independence Airline's costs to about 25 percent to 30 percent, said Moore, "at a time when we really can't raise fares." Asked about the impact of crude oil prices remaining at more than $50 a barrel, Moore said the higher fuel costs will force the airline to look at whether to continue service to "marginal communities."

Earlier this year, the company completed a financial restructuring that includes agreements with most of the company's aircraft creditors to defer lease payments and reduce the number of its 50-seat regional jets from 87 to 58 in the company's fleet. "That brought us some breathing room to build out our brand," said Moore. FLYi Inc., the parent company, has reported a net loss of $105 million for the first quarter of 2005. It reported a preliminary annual net loss of more than $190 million for 2004.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 4:41 pm

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 17):
Fuel has grown from 12 percent of Independence Airline's costs to about 25 percent to 30 percent, said Moore, "at a time when we really can't raise fares."

Mr. Moore: you can't raise fares because your incompetent management barged into Northern Virginia International Airport with fares so low that homeless people no longer live on the streets, rather, they live in your CRJ's. Unfortunately, United has matched those fares, and you now know that if you raise your fares, United will pick your airline apart. Look, I originally thought this was going to work too, but it's fairly clear that it isn't, your yields are too low, your costs are too high, and your planes are not big enough. Dude, it's time to go back to the Fee-For-Departure business and make money that way. In short, pal, it's time to go back to the drawing board.
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
nycflyer
Posts: 1288
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 5:45 pm

oh, hell, even if DH keeps tanking financially, good 'ole Congress will find a way to artificially keep them afloat and extend excessive bankruptcy protection, like US and UA.

Gotta love how Congress preaches capitalism but manages rarely to practice it.

For this reason alone, I'd have no problem buying a DH ticket now.
 
ConcordeLoss
Posts: 376
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 7:10 pm

Do they handle any cargo operations? And if so, how wells is that doing?
"You're not as stupid as you look, or sound, or our best test indicates" Burns to Homer
 
avek00
Posts: 3159
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 8:22 pm

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 13):
Are you a financial analyst/psychic?

You have no clue from the numbers above exactly what is going on.

I don't have to be either of the above to know that DH is still losing money hand over fist - fuel costs have increased signficantly from Q1 to Q2, offsetting much if not all of the revenue gains made from increased load factors. And in any event, a low-cost operation primarily operated with high-CASM aircraft is a virtually guaranteed failure to begin with.
Live life to the fullest.
 
IFly4UAL
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2000 8:30 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:06 pm

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 5):
DH is doing poorly as usual, though FWIW, I think their breakeven LF has probably fallen down to just below 100%. Or with higher fuel costs, maybe not...



Quoting Avek00 (Reply 21):
don't have to be either of the above to know that DH is still losing money hand over fist - fuel costs have increased signficantly from Q1 to Q2, offsetting much if not all of the revenue gains made from increased load factors. And in any event, a low-cost operation primarily operated with high-CASM aircraft is a virtually guaranteed failure to begin with.



Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 18):
Mr. Moore: you can't raise fares because your incompetent management barged into Northern Virginia International Airport with fares so low that homeless people no longer live on the streets, rather, they live in your CRJ's. Unfortunately, United has matched those fares, and you now know that if you raise your fares, United will pick your airline apart. Look, I originally thought this was going to work too, but it's fairly clear that it isn't, your yields are too low, your costs are too high, and your planes are not big enough. Dude, it's time to go back to the Fee-For-Departure business and make money that way. In short, pal, it's time to go back to the drawing board.

....like a breath of fresh air  Yeah sure

Same tired ol' boring rant....same few yahoos that keep saying it...
BGR--Vacation Spot for All the Flying Crazies
 
graham697
Posts: 344
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:39 pm

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 21):
I don't have to be either of the above to know that DH is still losing money hand over fist - fuel costs have increased signficantly from Q1 to Q2, offsetting much if not all of the revenue gains made from increased load factors. And in any event, a low-cost operation primarily operated with high-CASM aircraft is a virtually guaranteed failure to begin with.

Ok so what United station do you work for?
Looking forward to the new AA
 
BNAflyer78
Posts: 256
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:46 pm

Quoting LorM (Reply 7):
Last month I flew in and out of OKC Will Rogers World Airport (nice new terminal), there were at least half a dozen or more Independence Air CRJs still in company colors with their circle logos removed, sitting on the north ramp by 17R. Also there was 2 UAX Dornier 328s parked in the same fashion.

I don't have a source, but I remember reading somewhere that EV was acquiring several DH CRJs. Can anyone confirm and could this be the reason?

Ben in BNA
Long live the Widget!
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Thu Jun 30, 2005 10:58 pm

Yes Comair is getting 8 ex-DH planes.
Golf Foxtrot you are cleared for departure
 
as739x
Posts: 5008
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Fri Jul 01, 2005 1:28 am

Skywest also has (at least 1) old I fly planes.

ASSFO
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Crew
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Fri Jul 01, 2005 1:54 am

Quoting IflyI (Reply 2):
I see things improving. We will still be here to serve you next year as well.



Quoting Avion346 (Reply 10):
Yields are going up especially on the west coast flights. I'm even seeing a lot less "E" fares and a lot more "B" and "A" fares in Detroit.

Good to hear! I'll admit to having been "bearish" on FLYI financially. But I've always been impressed by the staff attitude! Due to *my* percieved impression that loads are shifting to customer friendly airlines... This gives FLYI a leg up. Good luck!


Quoting Avek00 (Reply 12):
That said, it's the summertime, and the odds of getting most anywhere on standby are slim at best.

An airline will first service THEIR paying customers and then take the $25 for any displaced. Basically, if FLYI shuts down (which I hope it doesn't), it will be tough to get a seat this summer at $25. Also, those $25 seats will be standby subject to be "outbid" by someone desperate to get to their destination.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 6):
It will be very interesting to see the Q2 numbers which will be released in the next month.

Yes!  hyper  The Q2 numbers are incredibly critical for FLYI. Does anyone know the release date?

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 6):
Another critical number to look for will be the cash on hand the airline ends the quarter with. Cash burn rate had been very high.

true true... if the cash burn rate isn't down substantially...

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 17):

Fuel has grown from 12 percent of Independence Airline's costs to about 25 percent to 30 percent

Holy batman! Really? That is going to make the lease costs of new fuel efficient aircraft look cheap to anyone! (Hear that NW?  duck  )

Now, if their is a strike at UA... that would really help. (But these rumors haven't proven true yet): UA FA's Might Strike Tomorrow(07/01) (by Hoya Jun 30 2005 in Civil Aviation)

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Fri Jul 01, 2005 2:38 am

Quoting BNAflyer78 (Reply 24):
I don't have a source, but I remember reading somewhere that EV was acquiring several DH CRJs. Can anyone confirm and could this be the reason?



Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 25):
Yes Comair is getting 8 ex-DH planes.

Actually, ASA is getting the ex-DH planes, but at the same time they will give the same number of their own CRJs to Comair. Why the ex-DH planes are not simply given to Comair, I don't know.
About the topic at hand (FlyI), I won't say anything, as I'm pro-Delta, and therefore automatically anti-FlyI  Wink .
 
COERJ145
Posts: 1140
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Fri Jul 01, 2005 5:07 am

Havn't gotten to fly on DH yet, almost did back in may when I headed down to DC for mothers day with my parents, but UA beat the fare from MHT-IAD by about $50 total for the three of us. UAX had excellent service on their ERJ, but i wish i had gotten to fly on DH with their CRJ's. I've only flown in a CRJ once, last Jan. in a DL CRJ from PSP-SLC, and that was an awsome flight. I hope DH survives, so i can fly their SJC service.


-Jeff M
 
avek00
Posts: 3159
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Fri Jul 01, 2005 7:52 am

Quoting Graham697 (Reply 23):
Ok so what United station do you work for?

I wouldn't be so stupid as to work in a highly vlunerable position at a dead-end bankrupt airline.

That said, DH needs more than full flights - it needs to cram 60+ seats into a 50-seat aircraft, if you catch my drift.
Live life to the fullest.
 
GARUDAROD
Posts: 1137
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2000 4:39 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Fri Jul 01, 2005 9:03 am

Cargo has not been implemented yet at FLYi. There is an on going
program to try and start it up, but like all other things "Its under review"

I am told it may start around the 3Q this year, but nothing is firm at
this point.
Cargo doesn't whine, moan, or complain
 
AirWillie6475
Posts: 2372
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 1:45 pm

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:42 am

If the airline offers good service and a good product then it will be fine. From what I have heard IndyAir is a good airline with good service. I for one plan to fly them at the end of August. To tell you the truth the fare was 100 each way from Lax to Iad but I would have flown them if the price was more because I have heard good things about them.
 
avek00
Posts: 3159
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:56 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Fri Jul 01, 2005 10:57 am

Quoting AirWillie6475 (Reply 32):
If the airline offers good service and a good product then it will be fine.

Not at all - the airline's CASM is sky-high.
Live life to the fullest.
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:55 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Fri Jul 01, 2005 11:45 am

CASM Shmasim

Dude just shut up ALL the legacies cannot achive postive RASM CASM


I LOVE FLYI! I already used a free ticket on them...their FF program rocks.
Golf Foxtrot you are cleared for departure
 
primetimeDC9
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 3:41 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sat Jul 02, 2005 12:12 am

i recently flew on them for the third time from d.c. to pittsburgh, every single one of those flights that i have been on is full. if they do have enough cash to last them throughout the year hopefully they will be able to get a feel for their route system, keeping the profitable and getting rid of the poorly performing routes. their service is possibly the best in the industry, it is a very accomodating airline, and they go out of their way to be different and hospitable. they definately have done a good job of recruiting a young, energetic, and friendly staff, and if they stick around, have found a lifetime flyer in me. i hope for my sake that they are here in the future because they have found a way to make flying particularly enjoyable.
 
burnsie28
Posts: 5041
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sat Jul 02, 2005 1:44 am

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 34):
CASM Shmasim

Dude just shut up ALL the legacies cannot achive postive RASM CASM

When you have the highest CASM in the industry, it does matter, and believe it or not those legacies have a hell of a lot more going for them and more money then DH. Wasnt the latest figures that DH only had a few hundred thousand dollars left in the bank?
 
ContnlEliteCMH
Posts: 1376
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 8:19 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sat Jul 02, 2005 2:03 am

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 34):
CASM Shmasim

Dude just shut up ALL the legacies cannot achive postive RASM CASM


I LOVE FLYI! I already used a free ticket on them...their FF program rocks.

So let me see if I have this right...

A banking/IT consultant, who makes his living by knowing numbers and making rational decisions based on those numbers, thinks we can just ignore the numbers and make the judgement based on "I love the FF program" ???

 eyepopping 

And you should be careful. It will only take *one* legacy carrier to return to profitability before you and everybody else must abandon this argument. And it *will* happen.
Christianity. Islam. Hinduism. Anthropogenic Global Warming. All are matters of faith!
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:55 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sat Jul 02, 2005 2:13 am

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 37):
A banking/IT consultant, who makes his living by knowing numbers and making rational decisions based on those numbers, thinks we can just ignore the numbers and make the judgement based on "I love the FF program" ???

Let me clue you in on the Big picture. NONE of the legacies are going to be allowed to fail why? Becuase the banks do not want those planes back and the government does not want to pay unemployment to thousands of people . Also Airbus and Boeing don't want their planes' resale value to plummet if the leasgin comapnies and banks start making bargain basement sales. Since Lease rate factors are based on new price minus residual value x rate factor they would be screwed.



If UA or US fails then all of the above would be very pissed.

Why do you think US and UA are still around? Not becuase of Management or employee pay cuts, but becuase the Banks and Gov't want them around.

GE does not want DH's planes back and Airbus doesn't either.

a great example from the US-HP Merger thread

$ 500 Million of financing for the newly merged company.

http://www.americawest.com/awa/conte...mpanyprofile/usair/comparison.aspx

HP Market cap : 214 Millon dollars 95% leased aircraft

UsAirways: not publicly traded -delisted, over the couter only. 75% leased

Do the math and get back to me when you can prove CASM/RASM means anything right now in terms of going concern.

[Edited 2005-07-01 19:27:01]
Golf Foxtrot you are cleared for departure
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:55 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sat Jul 02, 2005 2:28 am

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 37):
And you should be careful. It will only take *one* legacy carrier to return to profitability before you and everybody else must abandon this argument. And it *will* happen.

you should be careful, SkyBus is going to come in and run them all out of business LOL
Golf Foxtrot you are cleared for departure
 
ContnlEliteCMH
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Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 8:19 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sat Jul 02, 2005 2:30 am

What has *any* of your diatribe have to do with my assertion? I think your reading comprehension may not be any better than your numerical inconsistency. See, some of us also make our living with technology in a business that lives and dies by its numbers. While I appreciate the effort to "clue me in," you're still wet. So I'll spell it out more clearly this time:

You, a person supposedly who makes his living using technology in an industry that lives and dies by its numbers, asked us to ignore the RASM-CASM problem made obvious by a simple inspection of FLYi's statements.

I *think* the point you tried to make (your English was ambiguous) was that none of the legacies have a positive RASM-CASM. This kind of reasoning is no better than "My dad can beat up your dad" and hardly suitable for people looking at the financial viability of any enterprise. Furthermore, only *one* legacy carrier has to return to profitability before your point (oft repeated by others on this board) becomes moot. At least one of them *will* return to profitability. It will happen. And I suspect it may happen in Q2 or Q3, though fuel hasn't been helping.

To further clarify:

(1) Comparing FLYi to a legacy is silly. FLYi isn't a legacy carrier. Worse, it has costs considerably higher than several of its legacy carriers. Neither I nor anybody using the numbers will see how saying "Oh yeah? Well you suck too!" is any way to judge FLYi's ability to stay afloat. You may freely substitute "The FF program rocks" for real financial studiousness, but you might want to rework your profile's job description if you choose to say this.

(2) Outside of some piddly loans from the ATSB, and some lengthy Chapter 11 proceedings, the public sector has had little to do with the survival of the legacies (or anybody else). Last time I checked, sinking ships like Delta have taken on massive debt, from the private sector. Congress *will* allow FLYi to fail, just like they allowed Braniff, Eastern, and Pan Am to fail, at least two of which were many multiples larger than FLYi.

(3) Don't underestimate how mad some of us are that United has managed to pass off its pension obligations. When people get mad, they write letters, they make phone calls, they stop donating money, and they vote for other people. Your position assumes silence and stoic suffering by those who believe the free market should submarine unhealthy companies even if the death is painful. I wouldn't assume that.
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ContnlEliteCMH
Posts: 1376
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 8:19 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sat Jul 02, 2005 2:33 am

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 38):
Do the math and get back to me when you can prove CASM/RASM means anything right now in terms of going concern.

Perhaps time-based calculations escaped you when taught in school. You look at RASM - CASM to determine the present operating health of the company, and look at change rates to determine the *long-term* health of the company. It's basic finance.

You just keep focusing on right now. In the meantime, those of us who have to make decisions about the future, like "Should I buy a ticket" or "Should I buy/hold/sell stock?" will take a longer view.
Christianity. Islam. Hinduism. Anthropogenic Global Warming. All are matters of faith!
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:55 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sat Jul 02, 2005 2:39 am

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 41):
You just keep focusing on right now. In the meantime, those of us who have to make decisions about the future, like "Should I buy a ticket" or "Should I buy/hold/sell stock?" will take a longer view

"Buy a ticket now" this will continue into 2006. the banks are making the decisions and they will not take the planes back until they lose a lot more money.

Maybe I will go design a data cube in SQL 2000 using MS BI tools and model some workflow and reporting around Repossessions now.

I am not trying to be a smarty pants, I used to be a CFO of a Honda supplier in the CMH area as well as financing several Corporate jets and other endevours, I know this subject very well.
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avek00
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sat Jul 02, 2005 4:47 am

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 42):
the banks are making the decisions and they will not take the planes back until they lose a lot more money.

Some of DH's planes have already been taken back in the company's first restructuring attempt earlier this year. The fact remains, however, that Independence Air is an extremely high-cost operation, and faces increasingly stiff competiton against LOWER COST LEGACIES!
Live life to the fullest.
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:55 am

RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sun Jul 03, 2005 12:42 am

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 43):
Some of DH's planes have already been taken back

They wanted those plans to be taken back, they are smart to reduce their RJs there Load factor is up almost 20% since they started thinning the RJ ranks.
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allstarflyer
Posts: 3264
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RE: How Bad (or Good) Is Independence Air Doing?

Sun Jul 03, 2005 1:16 pm

Quoting GoCOgo (Thread starter):
By the way, this thread is by no means meant to bash Independence Air, nor should any of you start.



Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 18):
Mr. Moore: you can't raise fares because your incompetent management barged into Northern Virginia International Airport with fares so low that homeless people no longer live on the streets, rather, they live in your CRJ's.



Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 18):
In short, pal, it's time to go back to the drawing board.

I knew somebody wouldn't listen.  Yeah sure

Quoting NYCFlyer (Reply 19):
oh, hell, even if DH keeps tanking financially, good 'ole Congress will find a way to artificially keep them afloat and extend excessive bankruptcy protection, like US and UA.

I disagree with that, thus I agree with this:

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 40):
Congress *will* allow FLYi to fail, just like they allowed Braniff, Eastern, and Pan Am to fail, at least two of which were many multiples larger than FLYi

Congress can't afford to keep DH afloat - no support for it, no pensions to bail, etc. We just don't have the clout that the others do.

Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 29):
Havn't gotten to fly on DH yet, almost did back in may when I headed down to DC for mothers day with my parents, but UA beat the fare from MHT-IAD by about $50 total for the three of us. UAX had excellent service on their ERJ, but i wish i had gotten to fly on DH with their CRJ's. I've only flown in a CRJ once, last Jan. in a DL CRJ from PSP-SLC, and that was an awsome flight. I hope DH survives, so i can fly their SJC service.

So do I.

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 38):
Why do you think US and UA are still around? Not becuase of Management or employee pay cuts, but becuase the Banks and Gov't want them around.



Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 40):
At least one of them *will* return to profitability. It will happen.

In light of your reasons concerning the numbers and how imperative it must seem that the banks and the government continue to keep airlines afloat, the management at these airlines (UA and US, in particular) have done quite a bit to prevent your assessment from becoming reality. No matter how much the banks and government help, if the management at these airlines can't apply the financial help successfully, somebody will eventually have to pull the plug. The continual losses will make somebody cry "uncle" - unless management can somehow put it all together.

-R
Living the American Dream