padcrasher
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HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:17 am

Re cap from Av Daily


America West will end on Sept. 7 plans its last two non-hub transcontinental services flights LAX-JFK and LAX BOS. The airline currently offers two daily flights to JFK and one to Boston. After the US Airways merger was announced, America West hinted it would eventually drop the flights.
 
MAH4546
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:19 am

Interesting. I thought they would have kept them, not because of their trans-con stragedy, but because of their small LAX build-up. Too bad, but not surprising. Their trans-cons seemed to be an up and down roller coaster. They were doing well, not doing well, doing well, not doing well...and on and on. Though the San Fran flights never did that well, LAX-IAD was never a strong performer, and LAX-MIA was set to be announced, but never was.
a.
 
cslusarc
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:26 am

SMART MOVE HP!

HP has stated that the non-hub transcontinental flights have not been profitable for HP. When HP originally launched them HP believed that they would become profitable but circumstances have changed. Oil is $60/barrel. Industry RASM remains low. Incumbant and new competitors increased capacity on these routes.
--cslusarc from YWG
 
dutchjet
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:31 am

The transcon routes were a big gamble for America West - I am not surprised that they are being dropped. There is a lot of competion on these routes, and HP was up against everything from United's Premium Service flights to JetBlues frequent departures and reasonable fares. Business travellers seem to be loyal to UA and AA and the lesiure crowd in NYC is very enamoured with JetBlue - add CO out of EWR and Song (replacing DL) with a lot of new capacity, and you have one difficult market. There are sure to be more profitable opportunities out there for HP and the aircraft that were utilized for these flights.
 
commavia
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 8:36 am

With the extreme overcapacity in the markets with B6 on JFK-LGB/OAK and now Song on JFK-LAX/SFO, there just wasn't room for HP, the smallest player in the market. HP also didn't need these routes, as they undercut the new HP-US hubs in PHL and CLT. Besides, nobody needed HP's low fares as B6 and Song were flying these routes. On a somewhat related note, I don't think it will be long before we see DL cut down the Song frequency on JFK-LAX/SFO. There simply is no need for that many 757s a day on these routes -- UA, AA and B6 have these markets covered just fine.
 
padcrasher
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:15 am

I don't see an advantage here for AA.

Their average fare in the JFK-LAX market in the 3Q 04 was $309 versus $211 for Delta. (I did not have DL's JFK-LAX data so I prorated from the difference in from the Los Angeles/NYC market data. $278 (AA) vs $191 (DL). Their latest load factor for March was 90% versus 80% for Delta. So you see Delta getting about 60% of the RASM that AA obtains. But the Song 757 has a CASM only 60% of AA's number. A 767-200 (20% higher operating costs) and holding 156 seats versus a 199 seats for Song.

Looks like a wash.
 
commavia
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:58 am

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 5):
I don't see an advantage here for AA.

AA has a few advantages. First, they have a much stronger historical presence and stronger ties to the business community in both JFK markets (LAX and SFO) than DL. DL commands virtually no premium traffic on the JFK-LAX/SFO routes, which is why they lost mainline in favor of all-Y song. Secondly, AA's planes are very low-density, insulating them somewhat from the highly volative pricing environment in Y because of the extreme overcapacity on these routes (with AA, UA, HP, DL and B6). AA can match the lower Y fares and command a significant revenue premium in F and C. Finally, AA can use frequency and capacity as a weapon against DL. AA has almost twice as many flights per day on JFK-LAX as DL. AA can spread its premium traffic out over all these flights, and be far more selective in offering cheap fares throughout the day, whereas DL's transition to Song flying in these markets pretty much means that they are only going for the low-yield traffic on all flights, all the time. And, that's fine -- it may work for them. But, I personally don't believe that the market can sustain DL with 7 757s per day JFK-LAX and 5 JFK-SFO when both markets already have reliable service and plenty of capacity from both AA and UA, plus B6 to LGB and OAK. I could be wrong, but I predict that within one year, Song will have reduced JFK-LAX down from 7 to 4-5 daily flights and JFK-SFO down from 5 to 3-4 daily flights.
 
MAH4546
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:20 am

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 5):
I don't see an advantage here for AA.

They have so many business/corporate contracts on their LAX/SFO-JFK flights it is not even funny. Sure, they are losing Mr. and Mrs. Vacation to Delta, but they are not losing money on these routes even with the added compieition. AA's 762s are in a low-density configuration for a reason.
a.
 
commavia
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:26 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 7):
Sure, they are losing Mr. and Mrs. Vacation to Delta, but they are not losing money on these routes even with the added compieition. AA's 762s are in a low-density configuration for a reason.

Absolutely right. Considering, AA has done fairly well up against UA fighting them on the high end and B6, HP and DL battling them on the low end. AA has seen virtually no impact whatsoever to their sales in these markets from UA's P.S. service.
 
padcrasher
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:46 am

Sure they have the contracts, but the DOT data should reflect the economics in the market. (Unless AA has back end contracts, which would reduce their yield even further)
 
commavia
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:08 pm

Quoting Padcrasher (Reply 9):
Sure they have the contracts, but the DOT data should reflect the economics in the market. (Unless AA has back end contracts, which would reduce their yield even further)

I don't know what DOT says, but I know that AA has seen no impact on its performance in the JFK-LAX and JFK-SFO markets from UA's P.S. service introduction. The introduction of B6, HP and Song to the markets has no doubt impacted negatively their Y yields, however.
 
HPRamper
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:40 pm

HP will do better with their new Hawaii routes  Wink
 
commavia
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:48 pm

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 11):
HP will do better with their new Hawaii routes

I think you are 100% correct. On Hawaii routes, HP will face far less comeptition, in a far less volatile market, with much more stable and reliable demand than on the transcon routes. HP is going to do great in Hawaii!
 
Bridogger6
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:49 pm

That's funny because I just heard last week we were adding another JFK-LAX transcon flight daily..
 
MAH4546
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:13 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 12):

I think you are 100% correct. On Hawaii routes, HP will face far less comeptition, in a far less volatile market, with much more stable and reliable demand than on the transcon routes. HP is going to do great in Hawaii!

While I agree with your points,Los Angeles-Hawai'i, which US/HP is entering, is served by eight airlines (AA/UA/NW/CO/DL/TZ/HA from LAX and AQ from SNA). It is far from free of compietition.
a.
 
phoenixX2
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:23 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14):
While I agree with your points,Los Angeles-Hawai'i, which US/HP is entering

US/HP will be flying from their Hubs in PHX and LAS to HNL. They will be up against HA and TZ. Two flights a day from PHX and one from LAS as a starter. LAX will not be in the picture.

Rgds
 
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ERJ170
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 1:26 pm

A350 = CLT/PHL-HNL???? Have PHX-HNL of 330, CTL/PHL-HNL on 350.

Seems like a smart move to me..
Aiming High and going far..
 
MAH4546
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:00 pm

Quoting PhoenixX2 (Reply 15):
US/HP will be flying from their Hubs in PHX and LAS to HNL. They will be up against HA and TZ. Two flights a day from PHX and one from LAS as a starter. LAX will not be in the picture.

LAX-HNL was clear marked on the route map submitted in the merger proposal to the FEC.

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 16):
A350 = CLT/PHL-HNL???? Have PHX-HNL of 330, CTL/PHL-HNL on 350.

Seems like a smart move to me..

Putting their low-density A330s on PHX-HNL is just about as dumb as you can get. The Hawai'i routes will use 757s from the west coast. No plans for PHL/CLT-HNL at all, as the widebodies are for the high-yielding Europe routes.

[Edited 2005-07-04 07:01:55]
a.
 
legendDC9
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:00 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 3):
HP was up against everything from United's Premium Service flights to JetBlues frequent departures and reasonable fares. Business travellers seem to be loyal to UA and AA and the lesiure crowd in NYC is very enamoured with JetBlue - add CO out of EWR and Song (replacing DL) with a lot of new capacity, and you have one difficult market.

With all due respect to B6 in LGB, they have noehere near the feed structure that AA/DL/UA have into LAX and that is why HP starting that route was so meaningful to them. You have to remember though that the introduction of Song and UA's P.S. on the LAX/SFO-JFK markets came after HP started these routes. HP was the first new airline on these routes in years created a very significant reaction from the majors who had these routes all to themselves for the longest time. All of a sudden they had some new "punk" on the block trying to take away their customers and they did what they had to do to fight back.
 
A330323X
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 2:01 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 17):
LAX-HNL was on the route map submitted in the merger proposal.

I think you're confusing it with SAN-HNL.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
flyboyaz
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:35 pm

I had also heard that once the merger was approved, the transcon flights would end. The flights are PACKED every day...most of the time overbooked. However as well all know, that doesn't mean anything for yields.
Catch a ride on a smile!
 
N1120A
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 5:44 pm

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 16):
Have PHX-HNL of 330, CTL/PHL-HNL on 350.

Besides yield issues, they could have a 762ER on those routes if they want to

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 17):
The Hawai'i routes will use 757s from the west coast.

US needs to ETOPS their rather old 757s to do that. The HP ones, which are apparently destined for ETOPS cert, seem too few for that considering the needs out of PHX and LAS as it is
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
PVD757
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 6:37 pm

I think it would have made sense for HP to at least wait for the merger approval before canceling the BOS routes. US has a significant presencethere I think they could have filled the planes with Colgan and other connections and survived if not prospered on the route.
 
B707Stu
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:03 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 4):
With the extreme overcapacity in the markets with B6 on JFK-LGB/OAK and now Song on JFK-LAX/SFO, there just wasn't room for HP, the smallest player in the market. HP also didn't need these routes, as they undercut the new HP-US hubs in PHL and CLT. Besides, nobody needed HP's low fares as B6 and Song were flying these routes. On a somewhat related note, I don't think it will be long before we see DL cut down the Song frequency on JFK-LAX/SFO. There simply is no need for that many 757s a day on these routes -- UA, AA and B6 have these markets covered just fine

I disagree. DL/Song has JFK as its European hub which allows for traffic to LAX/SFO that HP didn't have. They were operating wide bodies a couple times a day to these routes that are now being used for their new Europe routes. With Song as a feeder, Song will definately stay to LAX/SFO and from what I hear, they're beginning to give B6 a run for its money. Don't underestimate Song, it's catching on at JFK like B6 did at the beginning... and with ffqnt flyers who appreciate they can use the Delta miles for intercontinental flights.
 
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drerx7
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 10:20 pm

Quoting N1120A (Reply 21):
US needs to ETOPS their rather old 757s to do that. The HP ones, which are apparently destined for ETOPS cert, seem too few for that considering the needs out of PHX and LAS as it is

What will the twice daily and daily run to HNL from PHX and LAS mean for other domestic 757 flying? How many aircraft would be required for those runs? What routes will lose 757s?
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
commavia
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:13 pm

Quoting B707Stu (Reply 23):
I disagree. DL/Song has JFK as its European hub
which allows for traffic to LAX/SFO that HP didn't have. They were operating wide bodies a couple times a day to these routes that are now being used for their new Europe routes. With Song as a feeder, Song will definately stay to LAX/SFO and from what I hear, they're beginning to give B6 a run for its money. Don't underestimate Song, it's catching on at JFK like B6 did at the beginning... and with ffqnt flyers who appreciate they can use the Delta miles for intercontinental flights.

B707Stu, please don't misunderstand me -- I don't think that Song is going to completely leave the JFK-LAX and JFK-SFO markets. Both are simply too large for DL not to have a nonstop presence on, especially -- as you say -- because they have such a larger operation at JFK. However, I do not think that the market can sustain 7 757s full of 199 cheap seats a day on JFK-LAX or 5 per day on JFK-SFO. That is, IMO, just too much Y capacity for these routes.
 
N77014
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Mon Jul 04, 2005 11:32 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 3):
The transcon routes were a big gamble for America West - I am not surprised that they are being dropped. There is a lot of competion on these routes, and HP was up against everything from United's Premium Service flights to JetBlues frequent departures and reasonable fares. Business travellers seem to be loyal to UA and AA and the lesiure crowd in NYC is very enamoured with JetBlue - add CO out of EWR and Song (replacing DL) with a lot of new capacity, and you have one difficult market. There are sure to be more profitable opportunities out there for HP and the aircraft that were utilized for these flights.

And worse, they missed opportunities to launch int'l services to Mexico and Canada that might have been higher yielding.
A new life awaits you in the Off-World Colonies...
 
A330323X
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:32 am

Quoting N1120A (Reply 21):
US needs to ETOPS their rather old 757s to do that. The HP ones, which are apparently destined for ETOPS cert, seem too few for that considering the needs out of PHX and LAS as it is

I don't know why I bother repeating it, but the US 757 fleet is not all that old. There are the 10x ex-EA -225s that are old as dirt, yes. There are also 21x -2B7s delivered new to USAir in 1993-95 that make up over 2/3 of the fleet, and are indeed newer than the HP birds.

As for the HP birds, I've heard that 8 of them are eventually destined for ETOPS, with 5 being done in the near future. That'll be plenty for their Hawaii routes. As for the domestic 757 routes that they come off of, it's quite possible that US birds will pick up whatever slack needs to be picked up--I'm not certain there is any, given how HP wants to reduce domestic flying, and how the reduction in transcon flying alone will free up over 20 planes between the two carriers. Although US and HP will operate on seperate certificates for two years or so, they will both be flying routes in each others' system.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
flyboyaz
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Tue Jul 05, 2005 12:52 am

Someone asked a question concerning the 757's and new Hawaii service in our weekly FAQ section of our employee merger page:

Q."With several 757s moving to the Hawaii service, how are we going to make up for them in our route system?"

A."Load factors systemwide are already high. Removing seats from the current system would seem to be the wrong move. It always makes sense to deploy aircraft assets where they will be most beneficial to the system and the planning and scheduling team is confident that routes to Hawaii will be a major addition to the America West network.

It’s true our loads are high right now, but high loads don’t always translate to profitability. When we adjust our schedule for Hawaii service, we can replace less profitable flying with Hawaii routes. We continually alter schedules and aircraft types in order to make the best use of our assets – aircraft in this case – and, with proper planning, we can do so with minimal disruption to passengers and without seeing a decrease in load factor. More importantly, we can do so in a way that positively influences the bottom line."
Catch a ride on a smile!
 
rjpieces
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:16 am

They have so many business/corporate contracts on their LAX/SFO-JFK flights it is not even funny.

I've heard that the business traffic on LAX/SFO-JFK is very happy with American's product, but how do they feel when they arrive in the dreary T9?

LAX-HNL was clear marked on the route map submitted in the merger proposal to the FEC.

Do you know a website where one can read that proposal?
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
commavia
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:22 am

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 29):
I've heard that the business traffic on LAX/SFO-JFK is very happy with American's product, but how do they feel when they arrive in the dreary T9?

They are. AA has seen absolutely no impact on its performance in the JFK-LAX/SFO markets from the introduction of UA's P.S. service. In fact, it may have helped AA in the market.
 
A330323X
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:58 am

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 29):
Do you know a website where one can read that proposal?

Again, assuming Mark is talking about the route map I think he is, I believe that he's confusing LAX-HNL with SAN-HNL, which does appear on a route map available at a US bankruptcy filing at http://www.donlinrecano.net/dr201/mwc/04-13819/dk002160-0000.pdf. I've also got the route map up at http://www.projectbarbell.com/images/routemap.new.jpg. The route map was the only interesting thing in the filing; the rest is mostly legal boilerplate and information that's common knowledge. Some of the more recent filings have more detail on the merger, if that's what you're looking for.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:17 am

A330323X-What I really want to know is, what airport between Honolulu and Lihue they think they are flying to?
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
phoenixX2
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:36 am

Quoting A330323X (Reply 27):
I don't know why I bother repeating it, but the US 757 fleet is not all that old. There are the 10x ex-EA -225s that are old as dirt, yes. There are also 21x -2B7s delivered new to USAir in 1993-95 that make up over 2/3 of the fleet, and are indeed newer than the HP birds.

Very well put... HP's 752s are most ex-EA, if that gives you any idea how old they are (sister ships to US's first 10). Ten will be ETOPs cert. by the end of the program, out of the 13 752's in the HP fleet. US has 31 752s..... I would like to know how many could become ETOPs....the 21 that A330323X refers to would be great for the European market. CO has been very sucsessful with this. As for US's 762s I understand that they have been de-cert. to ETOP 138s (???). That would put them out of the HNL market (180s only).

HP has more 319s and 320s coming from Airbus. Along with the equipment coming through the Hub from the termed Transcon flights, this will make up for that lost lift from the 757s domestically. Additionally, HP will not put the 752s just on HNL flights. They will "sling shot" them through the Hubs from the east. HP will be looking at OGG, KOA and LIH nonstop from their Hubs in '06. Rgds
 
A330323X
Posts: 2666
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RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Tue Jul 05, 2005 4:51 am

Quoting SHUPirate1 (Reply 32):
A330323X-What I really want to know is, what airport between Honolulu and Lihue they think they are flying to?

Who said anything about an airport? It's all about finding destinations that don't have any competition.  Silly

Quoting PhoenixX2 (Reply 33):
As for US's 762s I understand that they have been de-cert. to ETOP 138s (???).

Yes, though it wasn't voluntarily. They had one engine shutdown too many for the FAA's tastes. (The CF6 engines on the 762s are all maintained on a power-by-the-hour agreement with GEES, if anyone's wondering.) US will hopefully get ETOPS 180 back as soon as possible.

Quoting PhoenixX2 (Reply 33):
That would put them out of the HNL market (180s only).

I'm not convinced of that. I seem to recall hearing that UA flies to Hawaii under ETOPS 138, because they fly faster than most, or something like that. Someone else would be better qualified than I to know if US could operate the 762s to Hawaii under ETOPS 138 or if they'd need ETOPS 180.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
midex461
Posts: 228
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2000 11:08 am

RE: HP Ends Non-hub Transcons

Tue Jul 05, 2005 7:31 am

Quoting N77014 (Reply 26):
And worse, they missed opportunities to launch int'l services to Mexico and Canada that might have been higher yielding.

Um, yes, HP HAS launched some int'l service out of LAX. We fly to YEG and YVR in Canada. In Mexico, we go to MZT, PVR, & ACA.
Or are you gonna get nit picky and say that that doesn't count, b/c most of that service is operated by YV?

[Edited 2005-07-05 00:45:10]
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