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Braybuddy
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Aircraft Safety 1954-2004 - Impressive Or What?

Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:07 am

Being off work sick and having nothing better to do, browsing through an accident database I totalled the accidents and fatalaties for two years, 1954 and 2004. The results were remarkably similar, despite a 50 year gap and a massive increase in air travel and a large increase in aircraft size:

1954: 34 accidents, 664 fatalaties
2004: 31 accidents, 587 fatalaties

Both figures include private and air taxi accidents, but exclude military.

[Edited 2005-07-05 19:09:08]
 
nwcoflyer
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RE: Aircraft Safety 1954-2004 - Impressive Or What?

Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:13 am

Is really amazing when you consider how many thousands more planes are in the air, and how many millions more are traveling now. Certainly if there is an upside in the world of aviation right now, it is dramatically improved safety.
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condor
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RE: Aircraft Safety 1954-2004 - Impressive Or What?

Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:24 am

Yes, if you consider that traffic increased dramatically over the past 50 years you have to say that the current safety stats are impressive indeed. I wonder how it will look like in another 10 or 20 years. Traffic will increase even more but the airspace is not unlimited. The result might be that we´ll have even closer seperations than today. So lets hope the accidents won´t become more...

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commavia
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RE: Aircraft Safety 1954-2004 - Impressive Or What?

Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:29 am

Impressive is definitely the right word for it. To think that in the course of any given day, giant metal tubes take to the skies probably 30,000 times carrying people and cargo, and that on probably 360 out of 365 days of the year, not one of them ever even comes close to any other one. That's is amazing -- just goes to prove once again that flying is by far the safest way to travel.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Aircraft Safety 1954-2004 - Impressive Or What?

Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:42 am

I think that record is likely to improve somewhat in the short term. It's interesting to note that (as far as I'm aware) no A330, A340 or 777 has been lost in service.

It will be interesting to see what happens to accident rates and losses as we see more third tier airlines now starting to use older Western type. I'm thinking of A310s, 737s and 757s now replacing older Russian types in many Russian airlines.
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Braybuddy
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RE: Aircraft Safety 1954-2004 - Impressive Or What?

Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:55 am

I can remember, probably twenty years ago, that insurers were predicting a large hull loss rate of one per month in the years ahead. That would have resulted in probably 2,500+ fatalaties every year. Thankfully, this never materialised.
 
flyAUA
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RE: Aircraft Safety 1954-2004 - Impressive Or What?

Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:43 am

Quoting Braybuddy (Thread starter):

Yeah, impressive indeed. Also... just FYI, in Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre, safety is improving even though traffic is on the rise and has actually even reached record levels  thumbsup 

Get well soon by the way *sympathy*
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Glareskin
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RE: Aircraft Safety 1954-2004 - Impressive Or What?

Wed Jul 06, 2005 3:56 am

It is really impressive what is achieved.

For more information I can recommend www.airdisaster.com Good info and statistics about accidents in air travel. On http://www.airdisaster.com/statistics/yearly.shtml you will find more info on safety statistics.

regards,

Hans
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ikramerica
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RE: Aircraft Safety 1954-2004 - Impressive Or What?

Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:05 am

It all comes down to more reliability of machines which comes from computer diagnostics, higher precision and consistency of parts manufacturing, and improvements in maintenance techniques and requirements.

I would also so that the liberalization/deregulation of the industry around the world has helped, as airlines must compete more directly on cost and reliability, and having a safe, trouble free plane helps on both fronts, which encourages all manufacturers to prioritize safety and dispatch reliability.
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