keesje
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Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:13 am

Airbus indicates it plans to build the A380 for 40 years (like the 747)

A & B predict the market will triple in the next 20 years, most of the growth will be in Asia.

The 747 evolved from the -100 into the 200, 300 and -400, with combi & freight versions being added. Likely 747 adv passenger & freight versions will follow.



Airbus sofar has offered the -800 in passenger & freight versions. The -900 will probably be offered not to far down the road.

What future versions will be offered first in the next 20 years?

IMO a -900LR versions would be likely to move ~500-600 people on very long distances like Europe- Australia, Middle East-USA, Australia - Northern part of North America etc. in a physically acceptable way (DVT etc.)

A Combi version has been discussed many times, a shortened vesion seems unlikely; to expensive to make it light enough. Any other ideas?
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
beauing
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:24 am

A380-900 perhaps.
A380-700 doubtful.
 
DCrawley
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 2:25 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
a -900LR versions would be likely to move ~500-600 people on very long distances like Europe- Australia, Middle East-USA, Australia - Northern part of North America etc. in a physically acceptable way (DVT etc.)

Wow, the thought of that sends shivers down my spine! The 747 is more than large enough for me on long trips when full, but to add all those other bodies on a flying tube? Sounds like a good way to raise the odds of getting sick or listening to a couple more babies cry (lol). But, best of luck to anyone who wants to fly one!

-D.K. Crawley
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Starlionblue
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:29 am

Quoting DCrawley (Reply 4):

Wow, the thought of that sends shivers down my spine! The 747 is more than large enough for me on long trips when full, but to add all those other bodies on a flying tube? Sounds like a good way to raise the odds of getting sick or listening to a couple more babies cry (lol). But, best of luck to anyone who wants to fly one!

It probably won't feel larger than the 744 since it's divided into two rather separate decks.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
KL808
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:31 am

wasnt there rumor that EK wanted to order a bunch of A380-900's?

Drew
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iluv2pilot
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:32 am

I heard they're going to develop the A380ATW model. It's going to be able to take off and fly around the world non-stop. For example, let's say you want to go to JFK from JFK. You take off in the A380ATW and you land back at JFK 24 hours later.

It's only a matter of time before we can fly around teh world non-stop and end up where we started.
 
KennyK
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:35 am

Don't see the A380 that popular in 20 years  eyebrow 
Passenger numbers will at least double in 20 years, in some markets numbers will treble or quadruple, especially Asia, where the A380 is selling very well at the moment.

In 20 years the A380 will be so popular you won't be able to move at the major airports without walking into one they WILL be that popular because the A380 will be the only aircraft available to move so many passengers out of congested airports  crowded 
 
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N328KF
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:52 am

Quoting Iluv2pilot (Reply 8):
I heard they're going to develop the A380ATW model. It's going to be able to take off and fly around the world non-stop. For example, let's say you want to go to JFK from JFK. You take off in the A380ATW and you land back at JFK 24 hours later.

It's only a matter of time before we can fly around teh world non-stop and end up where we started.

I assume this is a joke. If not, would you care to defend the business case on this one?
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
SAS330GOT
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:15 am

There is only one problem and that is the situation with oil. How much will it cost and how much will there be. The A380 is better in a economic way as you move more passengers to and that means less oil per passenger. But with new technology like the 787 it has similar numbers because of efficient engines. But neither will fly when there is no more fuel to run the engines.

I think the A380 will be popular at hubs and 787 between small airports like GOT connecting small cities with big once. Routes like GOT - EWR or GOT - MSP but at the same time on the FL410 crossing the pond there is going to be a A380 doing CDG - JFK or AMS - LAX. Both models are going to be extremely popular as they are needed.

What I forgot with any of the big airplane manufactures is to create the A380-800 LF (Low fuel) so it can fly on less amount of fuel or on another kind of fuel.

[Edited 2005-07-11 21:20:38]
 
astuteman
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:21 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
IMO a -900LR versions would be likely to move ~500-600 people on very long distances like Europe- Australia

Answering your original question, I think there's a good chance of an LR version of the A380 some day.

GE/P+W alliance have already committed to a "GenX"'d GP7200 to be in service within 5 years (presumably bringing the appropriate fuel consumption improvements) This was quoted by GE at the Paris Air Show.
RR will have to follow (if anything it's even easier for RR, in my view - a "Trent 1000'd" Trent 900 is, wait for it - a Trent 1000..).

Qantas have clearly stated that they're very interested in the hub-busting abilities of the 772LR. I would expect that if the 772LR proves the case for that length of sector, in that market, you'll see a Long Range A380 from Airbus.

Factor in a significant MTOW increase (already designed in), significantly more efficient engines (being planned already), and a progressive increase in the amount of composites used, and you might quite easily see a 9 500+ Nm range A380 in the next 7-8 years. Maybe not the biggest seller, though.

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 6):
It probably won't feel larger than the 744 since it's divided into two rather separate decks.

If anything, the A380 has to be the ideal ULR aircraft - so much real estate gives you endless options for passenger comfort/space per passenger etc.
 
Boeing Nut
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:01 am

Quoting KL808 (Reply 4):
wasnt there rumor that EK wanted to order a bunch of A380-900's?

Yes. They've made it known that if the -900 were available now, they would cancell a lot of -800's and get the -900's instead.
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
keesje
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:42 am

IMO the A380-900 would be an option for "can´t avoid" customers like BA, CX and JAL. They could introduce them on high density routes. B744s (adv) can become too small / expensive when traffic triples & hubs get slot restricted. Those airlines perhaps would skip the -800..

The -900 could theoretically fit 800-1000 passengers, an LR version of a flag carrier would require "living room" for it´s passengers similar to e.g. SQ´s 38 inch pitch 7 abreast economy class A340-500´s.

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00005513.jpg
B A MacDonald has some powerful software & creativity.. Great job, click the pic to see details..

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifieda...earch/photo_search.php?id=00005513

[Edited 2005-07-12 00:12:23]

[Edited 2005-07-12 00:14:17]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
jacobin777
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 7:33 am

Great work done on the A390 BA photo..but The WhaleJet with a BA logo ain't happenin' for a long time (if ever)  no 
"Up the Irons!"
 
atmx2000
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 7:53 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 9):
If anything, the A380 has to be the ideal ULR aircraft - so much real estate gives you endless options for passenger comfort/space per passenger etc.

Of this only makes the key ultralong haul dilemma worse: all that real estate requires more fuel to move, which means higher prices throughout the cabin. You aren't going to get that many more premium customers for a ULH VLA, so you will have to put in even more economy seats in a ultra longhaul VLA . If the higher prices attracts less economy passengers, you have less revenue to spread costs over. It makes me think the other direction might be the way to go, with a 788LR or 789LR or A358LR, with seating biased heavily towards first and business class seats.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
ZRH
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 7:54 am

This picture of the BA 380 is great. The most beautifull BA livery I have ever seen.
 
yul332LX
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:02 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 12):
Great work done on the A390 BA photo..but The WhaleJet with a BA logo ain't happenin' for a long time (if ever)

That's right, BA is not likely to operate the A390 anytime soon.  Wink

Airbus has already indicated that the A380-900 will feature the strengthened wing and structure of the A380F. An extra-range version of the A380-800 would most likely be based on the structure of the A380F too.
E volavo, volavo felice più in alto del sole, e ancora più su mentre il mondo pian piano spariva lontano laggiù ...
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:07 am

>> IMO a -900LR versions would be likely to move ~500-600 people on very long distances like Europe- Australia, Middle East-USA, Australia - Northern part of North America etc. in a physically acceptable way (DVT etc.)

Keesje, a major consideration of DVT is not trip duration, but cabin pressure. A thinner atmosphere and lower oxygen concentrations puts far more stress on the circulatory system than remaining still for a long time.

If this "catches on," the A388 will be at quite a disadvantage to the 787 and A350 which will both feature higher pressure cabins and simmilar (or greater) range to the A388.
 
yul332LX
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:29 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 16):
Keesje, a major consideration of DVT is not trip duration, but cabin pressure. A thinner atmosphere and lower oxygen concentrations puts far more stress on the circulatory system than remaining still for a long time.

Indeed but the 772LR and 74A have or will have the very same problem. We'll have to wait and see how airlines cope with this issue.

SQ seems to be doing pretty well in this regard.
E volavo, volavo felice più in alto del sole, e ancora più su mentre il mondo pian piano spariva lontano laggiù ...
 
A388
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:42 am

Wow, that BA Olympic A380 is indeed a very nice one. As to BA ordering the A380, I don't know. Who knows, but looking at the fact that LHR is one of the most congested airports it might happen somewhere in the future. In anyway LHR will be A380 paradise Big grin

A388
 
QFA001
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:46 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
IMO a -900LR versions would be likely to move ~500-600 people on very long distances like Europe- Australia, Middle East-USA, Australia - Northern part of North America etc. in a physically acceptable way (DVT etc.)

Whilst I personally like the idea, as Astuteman pointed out, the A380 would need to benefit from improved technologies for a "-900LR" to be able to fly 9,500nm+ segments. It would mean an effective improvement in range of >30%. So, an "-800LR" is a more realistic goal in the next 20-yrs than a "-900LR".

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 9):
If anything, the A380 has to be the ideal ULR aircraft - so much real estate gives you endless options for passenger comfort/space per passenger etc.

FWIW, I agree and disagree. An "A380LR" would at least be an ideal airplane to link hubs that are separated by very long distances (eg. BOM-LAX, LON-SYD). However, most potential ULR routes won't be conducive to such a large airplane (at least for daily operations). Over time, of course, more and more ULR routes will be conducive to the A380. In the end, that might be the impetus for Airbus to go-ahead with such a product?
 
sparkingwave
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:55 am

I think the A380 will have more competition in the future. Who knows what will happen?

Will it be like the 747? No. When the 747 came out in 1969-70, it didn't have a 777 or an A340 to compete with it. The DC-10 and L1011 came out shortly afterwards, but did not directly compete with the 747 in the same way the 774 and A340 does today.

Will the A380 last 40 years? It could happen, but what Boeing will come up with in the next 10-20 years (all-composite fuselage, bleedless engines, single-pilot avionics) makes me wonder just how successfully it will last...

And I'm both an Airbus and Boeing fan, so this isn't an A vs. B comment.
(more like an "Airbus don't kick back and sit on your laurels" comment)...

Sparkingwave
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ikramerica
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:55 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 16):
Keesje, a major consideration of DVT is not trip duration, but cabin pressure. A thinner atmosphere and lower oxygen concentrations puts far more stress on the circulatory system than remaining still for a long time.

Who says? DVT comes from sitting in a confined position for a long amount of time, and is just as likely for someone with a broken leg or who can't move around much as it is for an airline pax. So offering room to move about on a ULR plane is key. Devoting more space to lounges and pax movement spaces would help greatly. An extra 1000 feet altitude won't do much.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Amy
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:50 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00005513.jpg

I hope this never happens. I don't want BA to order the A380. Being the largest 747-400 operator in the world I'd be suprised if BA did not go for the 747ADV instead... but that's another thread.

Personally I don't see the A380 lasting 40 years and here's why:

The 747 came about in an age where Jet aviation was still a reasonably unknown quantity. Before the 747 there were no widebody passanger jets. The 747 gas grown and developed to meet different needs for different airlines and remains as the most versatile commercial jet available with over 20 different models not including engine choices. In the times we live in now I don't think there is the room that the 747 had to dominate it's market. There are too many alternatives, both in the same class (747adv, although it is smaller) and point to point operations instead of large volume hub to hub. This is why I always have maintained that the A380 will not be a giant success and this is why I continue to do so.

There is also the fact that the A380 requires the airports it operates to to be modified so they can successfully operate it and this, in my opinion, is a hindrance to it's commercial success.
A340-300 - slow, but awesome!
 
jacobin777
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:03 am

Quoting YUL332LX (Reply 15):

That's right, BA is not likely to operate the A390 anytime soon

lol..my bad..I stand corrected, but the A380 isn't going to get ordered either by BA!
"Up the Irons!"
 
A388
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:09 am

Quoting Amy (Reply 22):
There is also the fact that the A380 requires the airports it operates to to be modified so they can successfully operate it and this, in my opinion, is a hindrance to it's commercial success.

Didn't the 747 have the same situation when it came out for the first time? Look at how many 747s we see flying around these days. Why can't the A380 have the same? If airlines see the benefits of a A380 sized aircraft and order more of them, airports will adapt to that, just like how the 747 did in its time. I keep saying the same thing to people who argue that the A380 won't become as succesful because airports can't handle an aircraft of its size and have to invest a lot to be able to handle the A380. The A380 may not be that succesful yet, but over time the aircraft will become a regular sight at more airports, just like how the 747 became a normal sight at many airports nowadays. I just don't see the arguments of airports not being able to succesfully handle the A380 (or any other aircraft in its class) as that much of a success factor or hindrance for these aircraft. Over time these aircraft will be handled. Once airports see the demand for these large aircraft increase, they will invest for it. Handling these aircraft is a matter of time and not a matter of hindrance.

A388
 
cpsarras
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:19 pm

Quoting SAS330GOT (Reply 8):
There is only one problem and that is the situation with oil. How much will it cost and how much will there be. The A380 is better in a economic way as you move more passengers to and that means less oil per passenger. But with new technology like the 787 it has similar numbers because of efficient engines. But neither will fly when there is no more fuel to run the engines.

I think the A380 will be popular at hubs and 787 between small airports like GOT connecting small cities with big once. Routes like GOT - EWR or GOT - MSP but at the same time on the FL410 crossing the pond there is going to be a A380 doing CDG - JFK or AMS - LAX. Both models are going to be extremely popular as they are needed.

Agreed. The A380 and variants will be succesfull, becaue large volume is the way for the future as it stands right now, if we do not come up with alternative fuels. Sure, we will still have smaller jets for smaller routes, but when the price of fuel is very high, you have to move more people for the same (or less money). This means stuffing as many people in a the biggest plane you can get, and having major hubs in most countries where the big ones load and unload. Think of it as trains versus trucks. If you live in a major train hub and you are shipping in another major hub, if you have large shipments it costs less to use the train to ship then unload into trucks to deliver, than ship using all trucks directly into the destinations.

We currently have the technology to produce a plane that can carry close to 1500 - 2000 passengers, and it is shorter than a 747 / A380 and more fuel efficient than a lot of the fuel-efficient planes of today (on a per passenger basis). It is the blended wing design ala B2 (I'm not going to get into the technical nitty-gritty here) I think the next big plane that will eclipse the A380 will be one of these.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 13):
It makes me think the other direction might be the way to go, with a 788LR or 789LR or A358LR, with seating biased heavily towards first and business class seats.

The smaller ULR planes such as 78x and such, will also still fly in long routes but the prices will be such that only the biz/first afluent can afford them; for the rest of us poor smucks, the cattle wagons will be it.

Call me a visionary fool if you want  Smile but oil is not going to get cheaper.

Christos
BHM
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atmx2000
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:01 pm

Quoting Cpsarras (Reply 25):
If you live in a major train hub and you are shipping in another major hub, if you have large shipments it costs less to use the train to ship then unload into trucks to deliver, than ship using all trucks directly into the destinations.

There is a cost to just passengers fly long distances on VLAs flying to a few super hubs though, as you have to have more connecting flights to move people in and out of the super hubs, which means more takeoffs and less time in cruise. Moreover, for passengers not originating from a super hub and going to another super hub, their path will likely take them far off the great circle route connecting their origin and destination, which means additional fuel spent flying extra distances. Finally, if loads don't consistently match up well with capacity of a VLA, then you will often have aircraft flying with a lot of empty seats which could dissipate any advantage from fuel savings when the aircraft flys full. If VLAs are going to have success its probably going to have more to do with economies of scale at hubs than fuel efficiency of the aircraft itself.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
QFA001
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 1:15 pm

Quoting Cpsarras (Reply 25):
The A380 and variants will be succesfull, becaue large volume is the way for the future as it stands right now, if we do not come up with alternative fuels.

The A380 won't be the fuel efficiency king of the skies. The A350-800/900, 747Adv (if launched), B777-300ER and B787-8/9 will or do burn less fuel per seat than an A380-800. Even the current A380-900 won't out-do the A350/B787 models, particularly the stretched versions.

So, the higher the price of fuel goes, the worse off the A380 is to its smaller competitors, not the better.
 
lehpron
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 3:26 pm

Quoting Iluv2pilot (Reply 5):
You take off in the A380ATW and you land back at JFK 24 hours later.

What is the point of going more than half-way round? Might as well go the other way with shorter range. Besides, if you wanted to go around the world in the same time it takes to revolve, you have to be moving at 1,000 miles per hour or M1.6 the whole way. Standard jetliner speeds means a round the world trip could take 48 hours!!

Quoting SAS330GOT (Reply 8):
What I forgot with any of the big airplane manufactures is to create the A380-800 LF (Low fuel) so it can fly on less amount of fuel or on another kind of fuel.

I'm sure a decreased payload version that runs on hydrogen, filled only with premium pax can justify the costs. Big grin

Hydrogen takes up more volume than regular jet fuel. Call it: A380-XH.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
astuteman
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:44 pm

How about an alternative view - a 380-900 high density, ULTRA SHORT-RANGE version, (maybe even a new, smaller wing, lower TOW?), to ferry all our Indian, Chinese, and other populous Asian colleagues around INTERNALLY in the years to come?
(The Beijing - Shanghai hourly shuttle.......)
Just a thought.......
 
Ken777
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:47 pm

I don''t believe that the 380 is the holy grail for slot restricted airports - establishing a minimum size plane is. I've been at LHR and seen a small prop commuter pull up to a gate with about 20 people getting off. The slots for the week that plane uses are worth more than the plane!

Over the next few years I can see airports like LHR establishing minimum limits on the size of the planes AND on the frequency of some commuter routes, like between LHR and DUB. It will not be as convenient as it is today, but that is how congestion is going to be solved in my opinion.

As for the 380, it is going to be a great plane when it's flying full of pax. Downturns caused by any number of factors will make smaller planes, generally in the 777 to 747 range, more economically desirable. If the price of oil continues to remain high we might actually get tot a situation where airlines find it cheaper to have additional planes in reserve to match the pax loads. Sounds stupid unless the cost of the reserve fleet is less than flying planes partially full.
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:54 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 30):
I don''t believe that the 380 is the holy grail for slot restricted airports - establishing a minimum size plane is. I've been at LHR and seen a small prop commuter pull up to a gate with about 20 people getting off. The slots for the week that plane uses are worth more than the plane!

Who cares as long as they pay for the slot? If the carrier wants to "waste" the slot like that, why not? The BAA could, of course, make it more convenient to fly larger aircraft by altering airport fee structure. As it is, I would guess that prop pays very little compared to the big boys.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 30):
As for the 380, it is going to be a great plane when it's flying full of pax. Downturns caused by any number of factors will make smaller planes, generally in the 777 to 747 range, more economically desirable. If the price of oil continues to remain high we might actually get tot a situation where airlines find it cheaper to have additional planes in reserve to match the pax loads. Sounds stupid unless the cost of the reserve fleet is less than flying planes partially full.

Like any other plane, then.  Wink This assumes the 777-747 size is some sort of ideal, while the 380-800 may be the ideal in many countries.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
PM
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 4:59 pm

Quoting Iluv2pilot (Reply 5):
I heard they're going to develop the A380ATW model. It's going to be able to take off and fly around the world non-stop. For example, let's say you want to go to JFK from JFK. You take off in the A380ATW and you land back at JFK 24 hours later.

Iluv2pilot, yeah, I've heard the same rumour. But apparently Qantas are concerned because they could only fly SYD-SYD eastbound. Even the A380ATW wouldn't have the range to do it against the headwinds. But if Airbus can overcome that, I'd definitely see a market there.
 
SAS330GOT
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:11 pm

Quoting Lehpron (Reply 28):
I'm sure a decreased payload version that runs on hydrogen, filled only with premium pax can justify the costs. 

Hydrogen takes up more volume than regular jet fuel. Call it: A380-XH.

But it will be flying....
A lower payload is better then being a beer can.

How about a Nuclear reactor onboard. That would be efficient. Fly for a decade and never land. This would be the ultimate luxury as you can get away from the common people down on the ground.  Wink

Flying is again going to be the transportation of the über rich.
 
Bolter
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:47 pm

Interesting discussion going on here. I see everyone discussing the price of oil and how it is going to raise in the future. But does anyone know how the development evolves of aircraft engines running on alternate fuels? Because IMO, that's the future we have to look at. Even if you want to look at the next 20 years. I understand that politics break the development processes but we can't keep to ignore the continuing climb of the oil prices. The fact that industries like India, China and other particular parts of Asia keep on growing, I don't see any significant changes in the behavior of oil prices. So, as a good manager or pilot should think: 'What are my alternatives?'; for the manager in terms of money, for the pilot in terms of safety..

Hope to know your thoughts on this!
Cheers
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:53 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 12):
Great work done on the A390 BA photo..but The WhaleJet with a BA logo ain't happenin' for a long time (if ever)

You mean A380? Big grin Well, I could see it with a BA logo happening in the next 10 years... If Virgin is successfull with it, BA will be stupid not to order them. And YES, there are markets in the BA route network that will support it.
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Morvious
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:27 am

Quoting Amy (Reply 22):
I hope this never happens. I don't want BA to order the A380. Being the largest 747-400 operator in the world I'd be surprised if BA did not go for the 747ADV instead... But that's another thread.

Well, It will depend how other Airliners will do it on the LHR route, like SAA, Qantas, Emirates, Singapore, Malaysia and Virgin.

Also, other countries like Air France and Lufthansa.

If these airliners can make a (high) profit with it, BA will be forced to buy some to. And I think some A380's in your fleet won't harm your 747 Adv fleet. I think you can operate both aircraft in the same fleet.

My speculations though  Wink

Back to topic.
I always thought there would be a 700 and 900 version, or are these still "thoughts"
have a good day, Stefan van Hierden
 
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Starlionblue
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:06 am

Quoting Morvious (Reply 36):
I always thought there would be a 700 and 900 version, or are these still "thoughts"

Not officially launched, but probably proposed (not offered) to the airlines.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
N79969
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:13 am

Despite Airbus's (and Keesje's) wishful thinking, I think it is very far from inevitable that JAL, BA, and CX will purchase the A380.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:37 am

Quoting SAS330GOT (Reply 8):
There is only one problem and that is the situation with oil. How much will it cost and how much will there be. The A380 is better in a economic way as you move more passengers to and that means less oil per passenger.

Aviation fuel burn is really quite minor in the grand scheme of things. Furthermore, initial burn numbers for the 380 and 787 indicate per pax fuel burn is equal. Remember, the engines on the 380 number four and have a higher specific fuel consumption rate than the 787 proposed engines numbering at roughly the same thrust rating. More pax = more fuel burn, but you reach a point in the 380 (as with any aircraft) of exceeding the point in which a pax tells you the comfort level sucks. Thus limiting the useful capacity of the aircraft. Lets face it...an A380 with 800 pax onboard would suck just like a 787-3/8 with 400 pax would suck.
 
SAS330GOT
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 3:26 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 39):

I agree very well with you. The idea plane is one where you are 35 people on a area of a A380 and have each a little room. But no matter if a 787 or a A380 use more or less fuel. The trend in prices and most research shows that we only have a finite amount of oil and that means that we need to explore new types of fuel.

So again back to the original question. I belive we will have a -900 model as people are starting to move around. We are going to need hubs and point to point flights. So there will be a 900 and also new smaller planes.
 
keesje
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 4:11 am

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 37):
I think it is very far from inevitable that JAL, BA, and CX will purchase the A380.

- JAL, BA, and CX fly to all the worlds hubs from their hubs at this moment
- the passenger market will probably triple in the next 20 years
- the airlines B747-400 fleets will largely be retired in that period
- the 380 uses significantly less fuel per passenger

not purchasing the A380? I´m sure you don´t want to put money on that  Wink
IMO it is more a questions of when ISO if, even if they buy the B744adv. The market situation will force them & they know it.

Boeing saying that fragmentation is the way forward & they have the perfect aircraft for that is logical. People blindly copying it is less logical IMO. All the more now they are promoting the 744adv Super Jumbo..

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highflyer9790
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 4:59 am

I doubt that BA will ever order the A380-it would hurt its ties with Boeing.

Quoting Amy (Reply 22):
Personally I don't see the A380 lasting 40 years

I totally agree!
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keesje
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:32 am

Quoting HighFlyer9790 (Reply 42):
I doubt that BA will ever order the A380-it would hurt its ties with Boeing.


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Personally I have the feeling network requirements and sharp purchasing deals are more important for airlines

Quoting QFA001 (Reply 27):
The A350-800/900, 747Adv (if launched), B777-300ER and B787-8/9 will or do burn less fuel per seat than an A380-800. Even the current A380-900 won't out-do the A350/B787 models, particularly the stretched versions.

Is this the creation of a new a.net truth or do we have numbers to back it up? (and pls, no 500 seat 380 vs 450 seat 744adv number magic..)

Quoting Amy (Reply 22):
I hope this never happens. I don't want BA to order the A380. Being the largest 747-400 operator in the world I'd be surprised if BA did not go for the 747ADV instead

On the other side they did cancelled B747-400 orders in the late nineties & many BA 744 will be 20 years when LHR gates become full of superior (fuel, comfort) people movers of VS, SQ, Qantas (or a combi of these two), MH, EK and others.


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Even Boeing predicts 1000 VLA in twenty years..
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sllevin
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 6:38 am

Quoting Cpsarras (Reply 25):
The A380 and variants will be succesfull, becaue large volume is the way for the future as it stands right now,

Except that you are overlooking the net cost of moving people.

In other words, someone flying EDI-LHR-LAX-PHX could well be costlier that flying EDI-PHX on a smaller direct flight. (that's a poor example, but I think it shows my point)

Steve
 
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:02 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 43):
Is this the creation of a new a.net truth or do we have numbers to back it up? (and pls, no 500 seat 380 vs 450 seat 744adv number magic..)

A 787 has two 70,000 thrust class engines, an A-380 has 4. The Specific fuel consumption on each of the two 787 engines will be less than the specific fuel consumption on each of the four A380 engines (SPFC x2 vs SPFC x4). The 747 ADV will have the same engines the 787 has, but will have a higher SFC, however the thrust required will be less on a per engine basis resulting in a burn per pax close to that of the 787/350. The 777-200LR and 300ER are unmatched at this point.

So yes. It is true.
 
keesje
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:25 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 45):
A 787 has two 70,000 thrust class engines, an A-380 has 4.

But what if one type has 2.5 times the number of seats (at same spec.) ?

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 45):
The 777-200LR and 300ER are unmatched at this point.

The 772ER is not a miracle on fuel consumption. The main reason the 359 is focussed at this segment & Boeing is holding back the (strech of the) 787-900. The 772LR will have a higher sfc then the 772ER, its heavier.

I think I´m indeed watching the launch of a new a.net truth.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
QFA001
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:58 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 43):
Quoting QFA001 (Reply 27):
The A350-800/900, 747Adv (if launched), B777-300ER and B787-8/9 will or do burn less fuel per seat than an A380-800. Even the current A380-900 won't out-do the A350/B787 models, particularly the stretched versions.

Is this the creation of a new a.net truth or do we have numbers to back it up?

I am not in the habit of making up facts, sir. The fact that the A380 will not be the most fuel-efficient airplane flying can be easily proven with freely available disclosed OEM information (eg. Airbus.com or Boeing.com).

Below is a quick example of a comparison between the A380-800 and B787-8. I was so confident of the outcome, I didn't even bother to put the two airplanes in a like-for-like seat configuration -- a decision which favoured the outcome for the A380:

TYPE ...... A380-800 ...... B787-8
MTOW .... 560.0t .......... 217.8t
OEW ...... 276.8t .......... 109.8t
Pax ........ 555 ............. 223
Pax P/L ... 55.5t ........... 22.3t
Range ..... 14,800km ..... 15,750km
FUEL ...... 227.7t .......... 85.7t

Thus, in this example, the A388 offers to use 165% more fuel to carry 149% more passengers 6% less distance than the B788. Kind of makes a mockery of this A.net truism:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 41):
- the 380 uses significantly less fuel per passenger

Than a B747-400? Yes. Than the new generation of medium-sized twins? No.

This Orders message illustrates some more numbers involved. But anyone can visit Airbus.com and Boeing.com and make comparisons for themselves.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 45):
A 787 has two 70,000 thrust class engines, an A-380 has 4. The Specific fuel consumption on each of the two 787 engines will be less than the specific fuel consumption on each of the four A380 engines (SPFC x2 vs SPFC x4). The 747 ADV will have the same engines the 787 has, but will have a higher SFC, however the thrust required will be less on a per engine basis resulting in a burn per pax close to that of the 787/350. The 777-200LR and 300ER are unmatched at this point.

So yes. It is true.

I understand that your point is to make a simple analysis, but the danger is that it neglects the fact that the B787-8 is less than half the size of the A380-800. So, it's per-seat value is distorted from simple engine-number equations.
 
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 8:43 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 46):
But what if one type has 2.5 times the number of seats (at same spec.) ?

Then it burns more fuel based on SFC and thrust to weight ratio. Fuel burn is not static, it's dependent on payload factors when all else (such as runway and terrain during takeoff are equal). This is why the 787-8 with 300 pax looses a pile of range vs a 226 seater, or it takes a cargo hit to get the same range. The same is true of all aircraft. This is why the 787-8 takes a 2,000nm range hit with full cargo and pax vs. pax only.

Page 6 and 7:

http://www.boeing.com/assocproducts/aircompat/787brochure.pdf

Quoting QFA001 (Reply 47):
I understand that your point is to make a simple analysis, but the danger is that it neglects the fact that the B787-8 is less than half the size of the A380-800. So, it's per-seat value is distorted from simple engine-number equations.

Yeah, but gotta keep it that simple for the guy drinking the A-380 koolaid.
 
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RE: Future Airbus A380 Versions, A380-900 LR?

Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:23 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 46):
The 772LR will have a higher sfc then the 772ER, its heavier.

Just to nit-pick for a moment, specific fuel consumption (SFC) is defined as pounds of fuel burned per pound of thrust produced. The GE90-115B is more efficient than the earlier models, so its SFC is actually lower.

What I think you meant is that the 772LR will have higher fuel burn per seat than the 772ER, which should be expected, given that the -200LR has at least 20% more installed thrust. That the 772LR's fuel burn is only a few percentage points higher than its much lighter sister's hints at the size of the -115B's reduction in SFC.


Adding to what QFA001 and Boeing7E7 said above, the 787 and A350 will have better aerodynamics and engines than the A380, taking advantage of several additional years of progress. They will also be much lighter on a per-seat basis, both due to extensive use of composites and because the A380 is quite heavy for the amount of payload it moves. Since efficiency is a combination of structural, propulsive, and aerodynamic factors, it's not so surprising that the A380 may not do as well as Airbus hoped against the next generation of widebody twins.

There's not much more the superjumbo can exploit to maintain a lower CASM, other than the amortization of fixed costs over more passengers. Since many so-called "fixed" costs, such as landing fees and crew pay, are in fact largely determined by pax load or aircraft weight and thus really not so fixed at all, the amortization benefits of moving to a larger aircraft are smaller than one might think.

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