andahuailas
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US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:39 am

With all the new direct services between India and the US, which, by the end of the year will have grown by more than 300% compared to last December, it seems that low yields and/or a fare war will develop. Not to mention that there is increased capacity between India and Europe as well ( specially the UK), which also means more seats available for connecting one stop traffic between India and the US.
 
shawnnyc
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 12:50 am

Yes airlines will go through some pain in the short run, but then things will stabilize. India was a grossly underserved market with many people taking ridiculous routings to go between India and the US. What you are seeing now are airlines like AA, BA, Jet etc which should be natural players in the market because of real traffic with their respective countries battle it out to regain lost market share to airlines that came in because of a lack of capacity. The US, UK and Indian carriers will do fine as their countries have the local India traffic. Gulf airlines and some of the more random Euro airlines will see them pushed down the value chain to much lower priced fares and much fewer premium pax (most won't get pushed out of the market as India is still growing very fast).

Thankfully, I think the days of me having no other real option but flying SQ EWR-SIN-BOM at Xmas time are over.
 
TedTAce
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:06 am

Personally I'd rather 'hop'. Being strapped to an aluminum can for as much time as it takes to get to Toyko or Hong Kong is bad enough. Nice to stop at those places, take a breather (and a few pictures), then keep on going.
This space intentionally left blank
 
mrniji
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:15 am

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 2):
Personally I'd rather 'hop'. Being strapped to an aluminum can for as much time as it takes to get to Toyko or Hong Kong is bad enough. Nice to stop at those places, take a breather (and a few pictures), then keep on going.

For the 1st time probably I agree with you.. I might be an anutter, but eevrything less than 10 hrs in a flying object is enuff for me.. a one or two day stopover can be relaxing, especially if one knows people there!

To the topic: it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. I can imagine that for biz travellers nonstops might be attractive (is saving 3 hrs really that crucial, question?), but for others the price will be more important - AIs one-stops and milkroutes provide an alternative for them

. Then, people who live in other regions in India that are not served nonstop as MAA, CCU etc (texdravid, how would you decide?) will not really have that great alternative. As said in re 1, the India-US Market was long underserved.

Looks like gulf airlines will be the big loosers..
"The earth provides enough resources for everyone's need, but not for some people's greed." (Gandhi)
 
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N328KF
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:17 am

I have mixed feelings about it. On one hand, I like the idea of nonstops. On the other hand, I love flying and don't really mind connections. It's the aviation buff in me versus the fact that I'm impatient.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:23 am

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 2):
Personally I'd rather 'hop'. Being strapped to an aluminum can for as much time as it takes to get to Toyko or Hong Kong is bad enough. Nice to stop at those places, take a breather (and a few pictures), then keep on going.

Goodness I agree. 16 hours in a plane. I hope part of the in-flight service will be complementary hits of Ambien.

I know the business travelers will like it, but can you imagine those with little kids on a 16 hour flight?
 
burnsie28
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:48 am

I dont think its over capacity when year round NW sells out just about every flight to India.
 
shawnnyc
Posts: 234
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:59 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):
I know the business travelers will like it, but can you imagine those with little kids on a 16 hour flight?

Actually when I was little, my mom hated the connection. Two small kids, 6 carry-ons, gates that were far away. First we got settled on one flight, then packed up, then got resettled on another flight, then got ready again for arrival. I give her credit. Not to mention missed connections and getting bumped in europe, all which have happened to us over the years. A nonstop would have been easier.
 
jacobin777
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:02 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):
Goodness I agree. 16 hours in a plane. I hope part of the in-flight service will be complementary hits of Ambien.

people complain, but adapt...there are more and more 14+ nonstop flights now...

just look at EK's routes...they have a couple already, and if they increase to service to the United States, they will have more..

with the -200LR's, 787's and A350's coming on board, it seems that the natural trajectory is towards more long distance 10+ hour flights...

15 years ago, who would have thought?
"Up the Irons!"
 
lucianflyboy
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:06 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 5):
I know the business travelers will like it, but can you imagine those with little kids on a 16 hour flight?

Agreed. Alot of the business travelers want to get to where they are going with 1 or no connections. Most of them have top tier status which allows them to get the primo seats away from the screaming babies.

Families do prefer those trips also like Shannyc said. Less stress for the poor mother with kids, toys, bags and other such delights.
 
toxicmegacolon
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:34 am

It seems that distance-wise, MSP is the closest US airport to India. I'm suprised that NW isn't considering changing their MSP-BOM via AMS to a direct routing? Any news at all concerning NW and India service?
 
BigGSFO
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:39 am

Quoting Toxicmegacolon (Reply 10):
It seems that distance-wise, MSP is the closest US airport to India

Actually ANC is closer.  Smile
 
MaverickM11
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:41 am

I wonder how this will affect EK since IIRC about a third of their traffic is connecting traffic from India. I've always said that an Indian air carrier could blow Emirates out of the water if regulations and infrastructure permitted.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
toxicmegacolon
Posts: 21
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:42 am

OK, OK, and GFK would be closer too... I guess I mean major passenger airport/passenger hub...
 
andahuailas
Posts: 118
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:47 am

The subject of the thread is US India overcapacity, not the lenght of flights.
 
incitatus
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 3:15 am

When I went to India, it was Cathay JFK-YVR-HKG-BKK-BOM, then DEL. Non, grazie! Bring the overcapacity to let the airlines that can serve the market efficiently thrive. Taking a plane from the US and landing it in India costs more than 100 thousand dollars per departure in direct costs. No airline in their right mind will run an operation like this at a loss. If there is overcapacity the supply will be reduced.
Stop pop up ads
 
karan69
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 4:45 am

At the moment these are the flights that people travelling to and fro on the IND-US sector travel in,

AI--IND*-LHR/FRA-US*
LH--IND-FRA-US
AC--DEL--YYZ, soon to hcange to via ZRH
CO--DEL-EWR soon,
DL--BOM/MAA--CDG--US
NW--BOM/BLR--AMS--US
KLM--DEL-AMS-US
KE--BOM-ICN-US
SQ--IND-S.E.ASIA--US
MH--IND-S.E.ASIA--LAX
AF--IND-CDG-US
BA--IND-LHR-US
VS--BOM/DEL--LHR--US
AA--DEL-ORD,soon
EK--IND-DXB-JFK
EK/CO-IND-DXB-LGW-IAH/---very popular among students
TG--IND-S.E.ASIA-LAX/JFK
JL--DEL-NRT-US,

*--denotes that the carrier operates to more than 2 cities

Well, if the market can withstand so many flights what difference would an additional 500 seats per day on AA and CO non-stops make to it,

In the future 9W expansions could see more non-stops perhaps they will be smart enough to launch them from cities like BOM,MAA,HYD,BLR and not any from DEL which already will be having 2 non-stops in the near future.
 
SESGDL
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 5:07 am

DL also operates FRA-BOM during the winter season.

Jeremy
 
karan69
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 5:12 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 17):
DL also operates FRA-BOM during the winter season.

But they are unlikely to do it now,as they have Open Skies with India and can add routes to any destinitions they desire in India, this is why they have gone for MAA flights via CDG.
 
gamps
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 5:13 am

Well the Indian demographics in US has changed significantly in last 10 years. Indian population in US soared in 90s and these folks now have family and have their parents visiting them etc. Not to mention Indians being the richest ethnic group in US. In other words there is a huge group of immigrants who arrived in last 10-15 years which translates to closer ties to home country. With lot of disposable income we can even see people saying "Hey there is a $1500 deal to India, let us fly day after tomorrow".

As far as duration of flights, while I certainly enjoy different planes and stopovers but you can take only so many SFO-NRT-SIN-MAA-BLR (with free strip search of brown folks thrown in by Japanese security just because you are flying UA - an American airline) or SFO-ICN-SIN-BLR or SFO-LAX-NRT-SIN-BLR flights with 4-6 hours layovers. After a while you just want to reach the destination. And I am sure the Eastcoast Indians cheer about not spending $$ and on stopping over at some stinky European stopover with ridiculous transit visa policies.

If nothing I will be happy when the European hubs realize the loss of revenue due to non-stop America - India flights. All these years Indians had to go through humiliating transit visa requirements and being treated as potential asylum seekers even when staying airside - and worse, being confined to small transit area with one restroom.
 
vivek0072
Posts: 283
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:36 am

Quoting Gamps (Reply 19):
SFO-NRT-SIN-MAA-BLR (with free strip search of brown folks thrown in by Japanese security just because you are flying UA - an American airline)

Why is this done ? I did see that they randomly pick and do it at NRT while flying on SQ, and it was only on Indians. Why ?
That life's most failures were people who did not realise how close they were to success when they gave up. - Edison.
 
shawnnyc
Posts: 234
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:50 am

Quoting Gamps (Reply 19):
If nothing I will be happy when the European hubs realize the loss of revenue due to non-stop America - India flights. All these years Indians had to go through humiliating transit visa requirements and being treated as potential asylum seekers even when staying airside - and worse, being confined to small transit area with one restroom.

Oh you forgot those military people that check your passport just to get off the plane (barely glance at those of the fairer persuation) but will thouroughly inspect the US passport of an Indian-American. I'm over all of that (especially since its my vacation!!!). Some people feel that all Indians love waking up at 3am US time to shlep through a big Euro airport with our bags and family in tow (yes we are Indian we have many carry-ons) just to connect. While I love seeing all the planes, I hate the lack of sleep headache I get. I took the EWR-SIN nonstop and I have to say I'll take a nonstop to India any day (plus it would be shorter than the EWR-SIN nonstop).
 
B747-437B
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:24 am

Quoting Andahuailas (Thread starter):
With all the new direct services between India and the US, which, by the end of the year will have grown by more than 300% compared to last December

In December 2004, airlines offered 17183 weekly directional seats on direct services between the US and India.

In December 2005, airlines will offer 21738 weekly directional seats on direct services between the US and India.

That is an increase of only 26% capacity and not "more than 300%" as you stated.
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
texdravid
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:06 pm

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 16):
In the future 9W expansions could see more non-stops perhaps they will be smart enough to launch them from cities like BOM,MAA,HYD,BLR and not any from DEL which already will be having 2 non-stops in the near future

Right on, but keep your comments to yourself, lest Mrniji hears you!!!
Just kidding, Subin.
Tort reform now. Throw lawyers in jail later.
 
mrniji
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:19 pm

Quoting Texdravid (Reply 23):
Right on, but keep your comments to yourself, lest Mrniji hears you!!!

I could not care less as I won't sit in ANY rustbucket for more than 8-10 hrs  bigthumbsup  (rather stop in Europe and see family/friendz).. rather should I lobby for noinstops DFW-MAA to gain Texdravid as new FF of AI Big grin
"The earth provides enough resources for everyone's need, but not for some people's greed." (Gandhi)
 
avek00
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:46 pm

The real loser going forward is Emirates - the airline was banking on flooding a restricted USA-India market with A380s, but said market is no longer restricted.  Smile
Live life to the fullest.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:50 pm

How Many Flts by AI to the US in a Week from India.
The AI B747s still get Airborne 200-300 meters earlier than other B747s out of Mumbai.

regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
B747-437B
Posts: 8777
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:19 pm

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 26):
How Many Flts by AI to the US in a Week from India.

28 weekly. Daily each to JFK, Chicago, Newark and Los Angeles.

Additionally, 3 weekly to Toronto.
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
andahuailas
Posts: 118
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 10:44 pm

Quoting B747-437B (Reply 22):
In December 2004, airlines offered 17183 weekly directional seats on direct services between the US and India.

In December 2005, airlines will offer 21738 weekly directional seats on direct services between the US and India.

That is an increase of only 26% capacity and not "more than 300%" as you stated.

B747-437b , if you read my post the 300% increase is calculated thru the end of this year when American, United, Northwest, Jet and Air India will have additional or new services between the 2 markets.By then the increase will certainly be over 300%
 
comorin
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:10 pm

B747, thanks for the counterintuitive stats. Is Andahuilas perhaps referring to a 300% increase in flights from the US to India? I would imagine given similar planes and frequencies, the numbers would be proportional.

Is there a source for the number of inbound flights by carrier into India in December 2005 vs December 2004? (an extension of Karan69's list?) It would be interesting to compare # of flights to the 26% increase in seats.

How does one figure in the fact that if BA and others double their flights to India from LHR or points in the EU, it also doubles availability of seats to India from the US?

Finally, why does an AI B747 take off 200M sooner than others?

Thanks in advance.  Smile
 
zvezda
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:22 pm

Since a very, very small portion of US-India traffic currently flies nonstop, a 300% increase in nonstop service would not have a large effect on the overall market. Does anyone know how many passengers fly between the US and India each week (including via third countries)?

I expect that 10 years from now there will be several dozens of daily US-India nonstops, with a few routes like DEL/BOM-ORD/NYC getting more than one nonstop per day.
 
B747-437B
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:24 pm

Quoting Andahuailas (Reply 28):
if you read my post the 300% increase is calculated thru the end of this year

Actually, if you read MY post the 26% is indeed calculated through the end of this year.

In December 2004, the capacity in the market was provided by

Air India : 25 weekly (7x JFK via LHR, 7x EWR via CDG, 3x ORD via LHR, 3x ORD via FRA, 5x LAX via FRA) all using 744s
Delta : 14 weekly (14x BOM via CDG) using 763s
Northwest : 14 weekly (14x BOM via AMS) using D10s

for a total of 17183 weekly seats.

In December 2005, the capacity in the market will be provided by

Air India : 28 weekly (7x JFK via LHR, 7x EWR via CDG, 3x ORD via LHR, 4x ORD via FRA, 4x LAX via BOM/FRA, 3x LAX via DEL/FRA) using 25 744s and 3 74Es.
Delta : 14 weekly (7x BOM via CDG, 7x MAA via CDG) using 763s
Northwest : 14 weekly (7x BOM via AMS, 7x BLR via AMS) using 7 D10s and 7 333s
American : 7 weekly (7x to DEL) using 772s
Continental : 7 weekly (7x to DEL) using 772s

for a total of 21738 weekly seats.

That constitutes a 26% increase in capacity, not a 300% increase in capacity.

For there to be a 300% increase in capacity, we would need to see Air India add an additional TEN DAILY 744 flights or Delta to add TWENTY-ONE DAILY 763 flights. This will not be happening.

FWIW, the market has demonstrated average growth in the 20% range since 2001 which makes a 26% growth in capacity extremely realistic, especially considering the undercapacity on direct services that previously existed.
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
jaysit
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:35 pm

Quoting B747-437B (Reply 31):
That constitutes a 26% increase in capacity, not a 300% increase in capacity.

But you also have BA adding 7 777s to BOM, Austrian adding 5 763s to BOM, BA adding another bunch of flights to BLR and MAA. I'm assuming that much of this traffic will be North America bound. And if 9W got their flights in order too, then you've got their presence as well.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
B747-437B
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:39 pm

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 32):
you also have BA adding 7 777s to BOM, Austrian adding 5 763s to BOM, BA adding another bunch of flights to BLR and MAA. I'm assuming that much of this traffic will be North America bound

None of those are "direct services between India and the US".

Andahuailas stated that "direct services between India and the US... will have grown by more than 300%".

That statement is nowhere near accurate.
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
shawnnyc
Posts: 234
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2005 9:48 am

RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:19 am

I think you have to include all of the Euro flights to India that can connect with US flights as part of the overall US-India capacity. Once all the new flights get going, in the short run there will be overcapacity on the route. New entrants will find it tough, as it takes time for people to switch and realize new options.

Now who's capacity will win out is the question. I think the interesting thing about India-US is that it is a large market where both originating countries have very low marketshares. Europe dominates the route. Given that Euro carriers really will dominate the one stop via europe, I think Indian and American carriers need to put effort in on convincing people that nonstops are the way to go. Sort of change the mind set on what it means to travel to India. Let's be honest most people when they first travel to India think the timings suck, the stop in Europe sucks, etc. I really think there is an opportunity for US and Indian carriers to take serious market share away from Euro carriers (especially in the premium cabins). So while yields in coach may go down because of the capacity, the airlines that retain the first and business class pax will be fine (as of now those cabins go mostly full on the likes of BA, LH, etc).

But airlines will have to market the nonstops properly and increase service levels as the flights are so long. But in my mind if an airline does not see the value of a $6000 J class pax to India and is not willing to work to please that pax, they should not be on the route.
 
Skyguy
Posts: 464
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:25 am

I guess the next question that needs to be asked in light of the increased number of flights to Europe from existing carriers from India and the new entrants flying direct to the US, isn't there a need for expansion in infrastructure, especially at BOM & DEL? Any plans to expand these airports?
"Those who talk, do not know, and those who know, do not talk."
 
andahuailas
Posts: 118
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:38 am

747-347B, you are not right in your calculations, Both DL and NW only had 7 weekly flights to india in 2004, not 14. The increase happends this year. Also, you are not including Jet new flights to the US starting this year and/or Uniteds flights also planned for later this year. And i believe Air Sahara is also planning US services later this year
 
B747-437B
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:39 am

Quoting Shawnnyc (Reply 34):
it is a large market where both originating countries have very low marketshares

The largest share of the market belongs to Air India who has somewhere between 20-25% of all traffic. Delta/Air France and Northwest/KLM have around 8-10% each as well. After that you see Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines and British Airways coming up as significant players on 6th freedom routes with around 5-10% of the market each. Beyond that there are plenty of bit players but nobody else with a significant market presence beyond these 6 groups.
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
shawnnyc
Posts: 234
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2005 9:48 am

RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:45 am

Quoting B747-437B (Reply 37):
he largest share of the market belongs to Air India who has somewhere between 20-25% of all traffic

I meant all Indian carriers and all US carriers in comparison to all Euro carriers. I thought I read that Indian carriers had a very low overall market share when you compare it to other routes which are normally dominated by carriers from the two respected countries.
 
B747-437B
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:45 am

Quoting Andahuailas (Reply 36):
you are not right in your calculations. Both DL and NW only had 7 weekly flights to india in 2004, not 14. The increase happends this year.

No Andahuailas, YOU are not right in YOUR calculations. I suggest you double check your raw data because your constant false insinuations on this thread are making you look foolish.

Both Delta and Northwest operated 14 weekly flights to India in December 2004.

Quoting Andahuailas (Reply 36):
you are not including Jet new flights to the US starting this year and/or Uniteds flights also planned for later this year. And i believe Air Sahara is also planning US services later this year

None of these services are anywhere beyond the planning stage, so I have not included them. I have also not included Air India's planned services BLR-FRA-SFO that they intend to launch in November because these are still in the planning stages.

Even if one did include all of those assuming the maximum lift on each frequency, the capacity increase would be approximately 40% year-on-year and nowhere near the 300% that you have been maintaining.
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
mrniji
Posts: 5382
Joined: Sun Feb 29, 2004 11:51 am

RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 1:00 am

Quoting Skyguy (Reply 35):
isn't there a need for expansion in infrastructure, especially at BOM & DEL? Any plans to expand these airports?

Oh yeah!! I have to use DEL airport regularly.. and I have no idea where all these new pax want to stay/wait! Normally, I like staying at airports, but in the case of BOM and DEL, I get there as late as possible and get out as soon as possible (which can take hours, as baggage handling takes aeges.. and in fact it happened in January that they decided to run the luggage of one flight on three different conveyor belts in remore distance (no, not next to each other!), without telling anyone, resulting in me waiting 3 (!) hrs!). Regarding the second part of your question: plans there, but afaik "subject to gov approval"

Quoting B747-437B (Reply 37):
The largest share of the market belongs to Air India who has somewhere between 20-25% of all traffic.

Really?? I thought LH was the biggest! Since what year is AI market leader? This surprises me as AI does only serve EWR, NYC, LAX and ORD, while LH (and others) serve far more cities from far more gateways in India. Sean, how can AI pax interline domestically in the US? probaby UA teh most, eh?
"The earth provides enough resources for everyone's need, but not for some people's greed." (Gandhi)
 
nycank
Posts: 232
Joined: Mon May 29, 2000 6:47 pm

RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:32 am

DL did indeed have two flights daily in 12/04 through 02/05 - The extra flight was JFK-FRA-BOM (seasonal)
 
comorin
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:25 am

My views as a passenger: if BA increases its flights LHR - India 300%, then they have added 300% capacity to US - India with the difference between a 'direct' flight and a 'connecting flight' being merely a semantic. This is assuming that they have sufficient transatlantic capacity to match India flights.

Clearly this supply will also affect the economics of 'direct' US-India flights. The only direct flights that passengers percieve as different are non-stop flights, so they may be less affected by the capacity issue.

If we take the totality of the available seats with one-stop direct, connecting, and non-stop, I wonder what the increase in capacity will be in 2005. It will be interesting to compare the 26% growth with this increase.

I'll be happy to do the homework if anybody can link me to data for total Europe to India flights for the 2 years.

Hope this makes sense.

PS: PLEASE, HAWK21 - Why did the AI 747 take off 200M sooner? lighter loads?
 
avek00
Posts: 3155
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:33 am

Quoting Shawnnyc (Reply 34):
Now who's capacity will win out is the question.

The big loser on USA-India will likely be Emirates. The Euro carriers will be reduced to also-rans as well, but at least they can benefit from already-strong USA-Europe O&D traffic flows - the USA-DXB market is hardly worth mentioning by comparison.

Quoting Comorin (Reply 42):
if BA increases its flights LHR - India 300%, then they have added 300% capacity to US - India with the difference between a 'direct' flight and a 'connecting flight' being merely a semantic

Hardly - the UK-India market is an entirely different animal than the USA-India market, and most of the new capacity being added ex-LON is not necessarily intended for the American market.
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comorin
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 9:55 am

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 43):
Hardly - the UK-India market is an entirely different animal than the USA-India market, and most of the new capacity being added ex-LON is not necessarily intended for the American market.

Let's say BA has 10,000 seats/week LHR-India, and 2,500 seats are occupied by passengers originating in the US. If they increase their capacity to 30,000 seats, we would expect a proportionate 7,500 seats available to US passengers, regardless of whether the US India market is different, or whether the seats are 'intended' for someone else. If I'm wrong, please set me right.

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avek00
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 10:43 am

Quoting Comorin (Reply 44):
If they increase their capacity to 30,000 seats, we would expect a proportionate 7,500 seats available to US passengers, regardless of whether the US India market is different, or whether the seats are 'intended' for someone else. If I'm wrong, please set me right.

You're assuming that the growth in India-UK traffic directly corresponds to or correlates with growth in the India-USA market.

[Edited 2005-07-14 03:44:15]
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ckfred
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Thu Jul 14, 2005 12:12 pm

If you think about the number of U.S. companies that now have offices in India, it's no surprise that airlines are adding non-stop service from the U.S. to India.

While leisure travelers and aviation buffs might enjoy connecting at a European hub, spending two or three hours at a European airport, each way, plus the extra flying time, means that much less time in India, or that much more time away from the office back in the U.S.

Business flyers, particularly upper-level management want to spend as little time getting from A to B. This is why the increase is service to India will do well.
 
COSPN
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Fri Jul 15, 2005 1:14 am

If you think about the number of U.S. companies that now have offices in India, it's no surprise that airlines are adding non-stop service from the U.S. to India.

While leisure travelers and aviation buffs might enjoy connecting at a European hub, spending two or three hours at a European airport, each way, plus the extra flying time, means that much less time in India, or that much more time away from the office back in the U.S.

Business flyers, particularly upper-level management want to spend as little time getting from A to B. This is why the increase is service to India will do well.

Well said CKFred, Non Stops are the way, Many people in the Old days probally Liked the stops in Goose Bay, or Gander....Besides who do you think pays for the Excessive Airport fees Enroute ?????

The PAX one way or the other...way to go AC get rid of the non-stop?!?!?!?! YYZ-DEL..Need to move forward not backwards...By the way how is the Airport in Goose Bay, and Gander anything left from the "good Old days" when everyone stoped by to re-fuel and grab a cup of Coffee????
 
jaysit
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:15 am

Quoting Mrniji (Reply 40):
Sean, how can AI pax interline domestically in the US? probaby UA teh most, eh?

That's a good question.

In the past if you called up the AI office and told them you wanted to fly from Washington, DC (or Boston or anywhere else) to India, they would say "You haph to phly up to Noo Yaaark, yourselph. We don't haph any aaaarangement." What's more, travel agents also steered you away from AI because they didn't want to deal with interline arrangements.

Quoting B747-437B (Reply 37):
The largest share of the market belongs to Air India who has somewhere between 20-25% of all traffic.

Is this just traffic ex-India? I find it very hard to believe that traffic originating in the US gravitates that heavily to Air India. Most US-based Indians would rather fly Uzbekistan Airways than Air India !
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mrniji
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RE: US-India Overcapacity

Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:22 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 48):
"You haph to phly up to Noo Yaaark, yourselph. We don't haph any aaaarangement."

LOL!  bigthumbsup  too funny, I can really imagine this - I don't know how this call center boom in India is successful, considering AIs call center agents in my eyes to be the worst! But... does "Noo Yaaark" refer to New York (JFK) or "Newark" ? Just to make sure that fellow people don't end up at the wrong airport! Big grin
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