DAYflyer
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BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Tue Jul 19, 2005 10:49 pm

BA Chairman: Reviewing Options For New Long-Haul Planes

BA is apparently considering several aircraft at the moment. Interesting to note the absence of any 747 ADV talk here, and the A-380 is mentioned as a "wait and see how it works" assesment:


Tuesday July 19, 9:09 AM EDT


LONDON -(Dow Jones)- British Airways PLC (BAB) (BAB) is reviewing its options for future purchases of long-haul aircraft, but a decision doesn't have to be made for some time, Chairman Martin Broughton said Tuesday.

"On the long-haul, we are in a position where we don't need to reinvest for two or three years," Broughton said at the company's annual general meeting.

He added that the airline is reviewing available aircraft such as the long- range version of Boeing Co. (BA)'s (BA) 777, as well as Boeing's (BA) 787 planes and the Airbus (ABI.YY) A380.

Broughton said the airline hopes to see the double-decker A380 operating before it makes a decision on whether to buy the Airbus aircraft.

The first A380 is scheduled to go into service with Singapore Airlines Ltd. ( S55.SG) in late 2006.

At the AGM, shareholders approved the appointment of Chief Executive-elect Willie Walsh to the board. Walsh is due to take over from Rod Eddington later this year.

Walsh told shareholders that his priorities for the airline over the next two years are similar to Eddington's. One of BA's key goals is to increase its current single-digit operating margin toward 10%.
One Nation Under God
 
boeingbus
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:17 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
Interesting to note the absence of any 747 ADV talk

Maybe it's because they don't want to replace the 747s yet and when they do, they will evaluate the 773ER, 747Adv and maybe the A346.

I am sure you know the A380 is all new in every way... it doesn't replace anything that currently exists today. So if BA evaluating this aircraft it's because of a new business need for it and not a replacement.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
carduelis
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-reviewing Options

Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:24 pm

Yes, I attended the British Airways AGM this morning.

As usual, there were the rather self-important attendees who try to embarrass the board by asking stupid questions or making nebulous statements, but generally finish up making real prats of themselves mainly talking about total irrelevances to the business of the day. I thought Martin Broughton handled the Meeting well.

Next BA AGM will be held on Tuesday 18 July 2006 at the Queen Elizabeth Conference Centre, Westminster. Why not come along as a guest.
Per Ardua ad Astra! ........ Honi Soit Qui Mal y Pense!
 
DAYflyer
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:31 pm

Quoting Carduelis (Reply 2):
Why not come along as a guest

No doubt an interesting proposition but unfortunately not an option for me personally.

What was your take on the fleet plan? It almost sounded to me that they have no intention of doing anything for a while on the Whale jet or 747 issue, but may order the 787 in two years? It was funny there was no mention of the A-350...did this come up at all???
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RayChuang
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:41 pm

I have my doubts that BA will order the A380-800 unless Airbus offers a really good financial deal.  Smile This is because unlike other airlines BA suffers the least from LHR and LGW slot restrictions, and as such could change their landing slot allocations to accomodate higher volume of flights to certain destinations with very little notice. This is why I think BA--in order to maintain commonality with their current 747-400 fleet--may become a launch customer for the 747 Advanced model.
 
carduelis
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:56 pm

My take on the fleet plan?

The report above sums it up - no commitment for two three years, with continued standard ongoing discussions with A and B as to what they can do to meet BA's varying and ongoing requirements.

No mention of A350.

Although BA have worked wonders in recent times, BA still have a little more to go on reducing their debt before spending out more money! They are not in receipt of Chapter 11 'subsidies'!

The Shorthaul fleet is nearly new with Airbus based at LHR, and 737s based at LGW, plus the regional aircraft.

Longhaul fleet is still relatively young and with no need for replacement, or changes.

Come along next year to listen to probably the same story!
Per Ardua ad Astra! ........ Honi Soit Qui Mal y Pense!
 
David_itl
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:08 am

Quoting RayChuang (Reply 4):
This is because unlike other airlines BA suffers the least from LHR and LGW slot restrictions

If so, why have they "bought" slots from various airlines over the past few years? Being based there gives them no special treatment with regards to slot allocations.

Quoting Carduelis (Reply 5):
plus the regional aircraft

Any indications as to when they are likely to acquire aircraft that don't go tech quite as often as the present fleet does or is the idea of actually enhancing regional services with a better product totally on the backburner (I have a white flag is readiness for the MAN "tactical retreat" if there isn't!) ? Or better still, have they worked out how much money Flightline and Titan have made operating tons of services for BACX out of MAN in the present years?

David
 
Lee
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:15 am

I could see the 787 slotting very nicely into BA's fleet, would open up some smaller markets. I would like to see them expand internationally at BHX and MAN.
 
Glom
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:24 am

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 1):
Maybe it's because they don't want to replace the 747s yet and when they do, they will evaluate the 773ER, 747Adv and maybe the A346.

I would register extreme shock and surprise if they went for the A346. The 773ER is a clear winner in that battle plus they already have a large 777 so they don't even have commonality.

As to the lack of mention of the 747ADV, it has been officially offered yet so we can't infer they wouldn't care about it, but we can infer that they aren't the mystery customers, which was not unexpected given the GE problem.
 
KL808
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:26 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 8):
I would register extreme shock and surprise if they went for the A346. The 773ER is a clear winner in that battle plus they already have a large 777 so they don't even have commonality.

Buy British is the key word here. Good price from Airbus might win them over.

Drew
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Glom
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:29 am

Quoting KL808 (Reply 9):
Buy British is the key word here. Good price from Airbus might win them over.

It would have to be a very, very good price. The buy British attitude has never prevailed in BA before. They have always bought the aircraft that suits them most and the 773ER suits them far more than the A346.
 
FCKC
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 6:50 am

Think they will not go A350 , as this plane is too closed of the 777-200 capacity.They can consider it , only if they decide to replace these T7s , which is not the case.787 makes more sense to open new small market , maybe out of MAN , BHX or PIK , and to replace the 767 fleet.

Think they will go 787/777-200LR/777-300ER and A380 , and no 747ADV.
I am not sure they need a plane between the 747-400 and the A380.
The only way i see BA purchasing 747ADV , is only if they decide to replace the whole 747-400 fleet with a common plane , in this case , meaning no 777-300ER. So in this case the future long haul fleet could be 787/777-200/747ADV and A380.
They absolutly need a huge wide body , not only because LHR is congested , but simply as the market is already there for this purpose.
I really think 747ADV option would be a mismanagement , not because i am European , but simply speaking about commercialy.
 
boysteve
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:00 am

I also agree that BA will not buy the A346. I would be surprised, but less so, if they ordered the A350 for the 'lesser' routes or to develop MAN for example. For such a purpose I think Boeing's 787 would prevail, based on previous BA behavior. As for the key routes out of LHR, the A380 has more than a chance, although as stated BA have no reason to rush into a decision before it is flying and the actual economics of the aircraft can be studied.
What is clear is that the 787 will make some non-profitable routes profitable again, however there will be no new runway capacity at LHR for at least 15 years. Therefore if BA flew the A380 LHR-JFK to reduce the number of daily flights, for example, it would free up slots for routes such as LHR-SAN to recommence with the 787.
 
avek00
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:07 am

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 12):
Therefore if BA flew the A380 LHR-JFK to reduce the number of daily flights

Why the heck would BA want to shoot itself in the foot by eliminating its strongest selling point in that market - frequent service?
Live life to the fullest.
 
Glom
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:07 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 11):
I really think 747ADV option would be a mismanagement , not because i am European , but simply speaking about commercialy.

This is what confuses me.

788 - 250
772 - 300
773 - 350
74A - 450
388 - 550

Given that the gaps between the 788-772-773 are only 50, how in the hell is 100 all of a sudden too narrow a margin to get both the 773ER and the 747ADV?
 
cslusarc
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:10 am

I highly doubt that BA will place any new widebody aircraft orders with deliveries within next five years. The 747-400s, 777-200ERs and 767-300ERs will stay in BA's fleet until the end of their useful economic life. Right now there is no need for BA to replace their 747-400s. If BA were to replace their 747-400s now, BA would flood an already weak second hand market with 50-some used 747-400s, diminishing their value. It would be wise for BA to wait several years to until it becomes economically prudent to retire those 747-400s.

After 2010 I could see BA adding more aircraft, and deploying most of the incremental capacity at airports other than LHR. I'm looking for BA to expand long-haul routes form regional airports like GLA, MAN and BHX, and at LON's two other main airports: LGW and STN. I like STN because it is the next LON area airport to get an additional runway. STN also doesn't have any significant scheduled long-haul serive by a major IATA carrier. I believe their is significant growth potential at STN.

After 2010 I could see BA adding aircraft like the 747-Advanced, 777-300ER, 777-200LR, 787-9, 787-8 and 787-3.
--cslusarc from YWG
 
boeingbus
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:52 am

Interestingly I just found a news source that mentions the 747Adv...

http://www.money.telegraph.co.uk/mon.../money/2005/07/20/ixfrontcity.html

"Mr Broughton said dividends were unlikely until the operating profit margin reaches 10pc. This is targeted for the next financial year.

He also said the board will decide within nine months how to replace its ageing long-haul fleet. Options included buying Boeing's new 787 Dreamliners or its 747 Advanced jets, or Airbus's new A380 super-jumbos."
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
Amy
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:30 am

Here's hoping for 747ADV or 777-300ER orders (although somehow I can't see a BA 777-300ER) and definitely some 787s! I continue to hope BA don't touch the A380. It fits into some airline's ops but I can't see it in BA.
A340-300 - slow, but awesome!
 
carduelis
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:32 pm

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 16):
He also said the board will decide within nine months how to replace its ageing long-haul fleet.

IF this was said, it MUST have been at a separate Press interview, as it was NOT said at the AGM. The time span metioned was 2-3 years.
Per Ardua ad Astra! ........ Honi Soit Qui Mal y Pense!
 
scotron11
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 1:54 pm

According to FT, Broughton said that a paper would be presented to BA's board within the next 9 months. It will lay the foundation for the airlines's biggest investment decision of the coming decade.

The BA review will provide an exhaustive examination of the competitiveness of the "new generation" aircraft being developed by Boeing and Airbus.

These include the new A380 superjumbo.

All long-haul aircraft in BA's fleet are Boeings; 57 B744's, 43 777's and 21 767s. Options for BA, said Broughton, include the 787, the 747ADV and the 777LR.

Mr Broughton said "these are options on the table." He added that the A350 was "unlikely" to be a principle long-haul aircraft at BA.

On the superjumbo, Mr Broughton said, "The jury is still out. None have been delivered yet. We want to see them fly first. But they are very much on our radar screen, they are one of our options."
 
jacobin777
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:21 pm

I see a whole slew of 773-ER's and many 787's which will fill the gap nicely...if they order The Leviathan, it wouldn't be anymore than 1/2 dozen..but thats about it.....

I see a greater chance of them getting the 747ADV than The WhaleJet....BA's strategy has always been to increase pax/plane on an incremental basis...
"Up the Irons!"
 
panam330
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 3:42 pm

Quoting Lee (Reply 7):
I could see the 787 slotting very nicely into BA's fleet, would open up some smaller markets. I would like to see them expand internationally at BHX and MAN.

While I see the 787 or A350 making it's way into the BA fleet within 8-10 years, they will, as it is currently planned, not expand from secondary UK markets, save the shorthaul stuff. BA's only long haul flight not from LHR/LGW is MAN-JFK, simply because there is [some] premium demand here. BA has stated they will centralize their long haul ops from LHR and LGW, the latter being used for leisure flights, with the former being used primarily for high-yield routes.
 
whitehatter
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:41 pm

Quoting KL808 (Reply 9):

Buy British is the key word here.

Rubbish.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 20):
I see a whole slew of 773-ER's and many 787's which will fill the gap nicely...if they order The Leviathan, it wouldn't be anymore than 1/2 dozen..but thats about it.....

Dream on.

BA need three deck capacity, and the 773ER may be in the running but certainly not in any large number. A reasonable size topup order for transatlantics might be indicated but cargo is an important factor. That would favour a larger order for the A380. Six aircraft is far too little a fleet of A380 for BA's operations, and at least double that number would be needed to impact on any route. UK-OZ is one route where BA could move from the 744 to 388.

Of course a Trent powered 747X would be a whole new factor if offered at the right price. Bitish Airways buys smartly and cuts hard deals, and has done since privatisation. Considerations of where and who builds the aircraft are secondary by a long way.

The 787 is a bit of an oddball for BA's current fleet requirements. The 763 is split over two distinct segments, namely thinner longhaul and higher capacity European routes. They certainly wouldn't have a requirement for 'many'. The A321 and A320 has displaced the 757 and 767 on many European routes, and the 772 would be cascaded onto the thinner routes where possible after being replaced on some current operations. BA's markets are constantly changing so any like-for-like discussion whilst looking at their current fleet is difficult.

Willie Walsh is another important factor in BA's future. He has a certain preference for Airbus and GE products, so BA may not be as firmly wedded to Rolls Royce as they have been in recent years.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
cornish
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 7:51 pm

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 22):
The 787 is a bit of an oddball for BA's current fleet requirements. The 763 is split over two distinct segments, namely thinner longhaul and higher capacity European routes. They certainly wouldn't have a requirement for 'many'. The A321 and A320 has displaced the 757 and 767 on many European routes, and the 772 would be cascaded onto the thinner routes where possible after being replaced on some current operations. BA's markets are constantly changing so any like-for-like discussion whilst looking at their current fleet is difficult.

I agree on the 787 issue. As you rightly say - the 767 is split over two distinct segments, and BA may feel they can adequately cover the phase out of 767s with A321s for the Euro routes, and 777s for the long haul ones. While the 767s in Europe are handy for some peak hour services, they spend much of the time flying less than full the rest of the day. Likewise a 777 for a long haul route over a 767 would not be too much of a problem for BA I suspect - perhaps any route that couldn't profitably be filled on a 777 would get dropped anyway.

That way another aircraft type is dropped from the fleet (757/767) which would save some costs.

In all honesty BA is one of the few major airlines which doesn't really have a great need for a 787/A350 aircraft at present.
Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
 
Joost
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:20 pm

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 13):
Why the heck would BA want to shoot itself in the foot by eliminating its strongest selling point in that market - frequent service?

The 380 is not the plane for LHR-JFK, as LHR-JFK can well be operated with high-frequency services that make sense. The have flights leaving LHR from 8:00 to 20:00 , so they can well spread capacity.

But on other routes, the time window is smaller and there are routes where flights are departing just behind each other.

Look at LHR-HKG:
18:25 744
21:15 744
22:20 744

This can be replaced with a double-daily 388, without really losing the frequency selling-point, as the 21:15 and 22:20 flights are so close.

Or LHR-SIN: 21:25 and 21:50 - and a codeshare at 22:05 - can be replaced easily (and will be done by QF already of course).
 
7LBAC111
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:36 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Thread starter):
hopes to see the double-decker A380 operating

Don't they think it will .... ? Big grin

7LBAC111
Debate is what you put on de hook when you want to catch de fish.
 
AlanUK
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:36 pm

Fascinating thread this is. This type of topic seem to pop up every month or so.

I agree with FCKC and Whitehatter on this page.

My pronostic:

787s replacing 767s
773ER replacing some older 744s
388s replacing some 744s on "big" routes (HKG/OZ/JNB/LAX/SFO/DEL/BOM...)

Knowing that BA generally have a much bigger proportion of premium seating per aircraft than other carrier (only the rear cabin of 772s is Y and rear plus a bit for some 744s), the Airbus 380 will probably seat less than people think in the BA fleet.

We'll have to wait and see.
In the meantime, safe flying all.
 
YYZ4RADD
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:42 pm

BA will buy the A380, regardless Why? Becauase all other majors to London except the US ones (far less profitable) will have it.

You can't compete with VS, EK, CX (still yet to be ordered), SQ, QR, EY and many other potentials when you dont have the equipment.

Otherwise Branson will have an ad that says "we have it and they dont' on his planes to taunt BA.

I think BA wants to find out the operational costs before making decisions that is why they are waiting for numbers to come in from other A380 operators before making a decision. You can see in their statements, they haven't ruled it out. Besides the new guy has a preference for Airbus and GE.

The A350 will be an oddball like the 787 in the BA fleet.

I am sure GDB will have some insights, I tend to respect and believe his opinions because he has been right most of the time and also he works at BA.

Cheers,
YYZ4RADD
 
boeingbus
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-reviewing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:59 pm

Quoting YYZ4RADD (Reply 27):
You can't compete with VS, EK, CX (still yet to be ordered), SQ, QR, EY and many other potentials when you dont have the equipment.

How can you be so sure about this? I have my reservations that its not going to be any different than any other plane, that is currently available. Efficiency, product, pricing and scheduling is key... BA is taking the right approach by taking that wait and see approach... let other airlines work out the kinks and see if it can be successful...

Any airline who decides on the A380 is because they are projecting to fill those seats...if they dont, they are going to lose money. The economic advantages of the A380 is its seating size and not its peformance efficiency so you better have a route to support the additional seats.

I honeslty don't think you can have every airline on a particular hub to hub route purchase an A380, as it will end up being too much capacity. Pricing will drop so significantly that the A380 is more of a pain than a solution.

just my 2 cents!

Ric
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
Ready4Pushback
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:16 pm

Quoting YYZ4RADD (Reply 27):
You can't compete with VS, EK, CX (still yet to be ordered), SQ, QR, EY and many other potentials when you dont have the equipment.

But why does BA need the A380 to compete with them - it may feel that it doesn't? Are you trying to say that passenger will prefer to fly Virgin because they operate an A380?? I doubt many people will check to see what equipment is used - only a-netters!

I can't see any orders from BA for a long time - they will use their existing fleet for a long time yet. I am surprised to see posts regarding BA extending it's regional ops - why do you think they will - have they said so?

Gary
 
cornish
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:21 pm

Quoting Ready4Pushback (Reply 29):
But why does BA need the A380 to compete with them - it may feel that it doesn't? Are you trying to say that passenger will prefer to fly Virgin because they operate an A380?? I doubt many people will check to see what equipment is used - only a-netters!

Exactly Gary. Its not the aircraft itself that will see BA competing with its rivals - its the standard of the product on board, regardless of aircraft. If BA have a better business clas sproduct on a 747 or a 777 than someone else on a rival on an A380, then customers will still prefer to fly BA. Its only the enthusiasts that will choose to fly an A380 for the aircraft that it is, rather than the product on board....
Just when I thought I could see light at the end of the tunnel, it was some B*****d with a torch bringing me more work
 
mainMAN
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:22 pm

Quoting Boysteve (Reply 12):
Therefore if BA flew the A380 LHR-JFK to reduce the number of daily flights, for example, it would free up slots for routes such as LHR-SAN to recommence with the 787.

Or, before this happens, they could perhaps release the MAN 767 to operate to SAN, or consider other under-served routes from LHR, like LHR - ITH for business travellers, or LGW - LGK - DPS for more leisure orientated passengers.

Sorry, something about the letters B.A. and the words 'long haul' bring out my peevish sarcastic side!
 
avek00
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:23 pm

There is no amenity that can be *economically* offered on an A380 that cannot also be economically offered on a 747ADV or even 747-400.



-----------

You can't go wrong with the WRIGHT Amendment!
Live life to the fullest.
 
BestWestern
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:18 pm

Willie walsh sees great benefit in fleet commonality. For this reason, I don't see BA ordering the 787 or A350 - I see the 767 going to the 321 on short-haul routes, and to the 772 on long haul routes. I firmly believe that BA can save millions eliminating the the 763 and 752 from their operations.
I can eventually see BA's long haul fleet based on two airframes:

B772 - Just as today, also assuming the 763 routes.
B773 - Trunk and leisure routes
A380 - Extremity routes (Australia, South Africa, West Coast USA)

With the 763's resale value being very high of late, BA will have no problems off-loading these aircraft in the next five years.
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
FCKC
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:51 pm

BestWestern

B772/773/A380 would be the ideal long haul fleet speaking economically.

I continue to think the 747ADV has no place in this strategy.In fact as somebody said , BA has more Business seats in their planes than any other airlines , so the A380 is not so huge in the 800 version.The 900 will be.
The 787 will have its place in this strategy , only if they think to open new markets out of LHR or elsewhere in the UK , but do not believe to replace one type of aircraft they already have.
I am sure Boeing is pushing hard to sell this plane to BA , and sincerely i think we will see it in the future BA fleet.

For sure the A350 is not the right aircraft for them and is already out of the game.See the link below.

http://www.aerospacemedia.com/AFP/pr....asp?xml=050720120501.aco2i6c4.xml


Their 767 fleet will be hard to sell at a reasonnable price for them , since they are RR equipped.
Only Air Atlanta Europe can have all the engines in their fleet............
 
AlanUK
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Thu Jul 21, 2005 12:28 am

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 33):
With the 763's resale value being very high of late, BA will have no problems off-loading these aircraft in the next five years.

Although I see your point, you are quite mistaken on this one.

BA already tried to rid itself of its 767s (as fuel tankers to the Royal Army- deal failed). BA is one of only two airlines worldwide to operate the 767 with RR engines (same engine as the 747s RR), making them very difficult to sell. This is also the reason why the DUSK program was so late on 767s, BA was hoping to get rid of them... It's proving difficult.

Al.
 
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Richard28
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:19 am

Avek00:

"There is no amenity that can be *economically* offered on an A380 that cannot also be economically offered on a 747ADV or even 747-400."

I disagree with the economic bit.

of course anything that can be put into an A380 could appear on the B747, however remember that the A380 has far more floor space per passenger than the 744/or proposed 747ADV.

So in the Boeing seats would need to be sacrificed to fit some amenities, which might not be the case in the A380.

In other words, there is more "dead" floor space to play around with in the A380 which cannot generate seat revenue.
 
whitehatter
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:39 am

Quoting AlanUK (Reply 35):
BA already tried to rid itself of its 767s (as fuel tankers to the Royal Army- deal failed). BA is one of only two airlines worldwide to operate the 767 with RR engines (same engine as the 747s RR), making them very difficult to sell. This is also the reason why the DUSK program was so late on 767s, BA was hoping to get rid of them... It's proving difficult.

I heard a rumour the other day (and that's all it was, a rumour...) that BA would consider operating the 763RR fleet for a few more years with the upgraded interiors, then contemplate selling them off as freighters as a complete deal.

Much the same as they unloaded those oddball 752 aircraft with the lower thrust engines on to DHL, plus some others. It would possibly involve aircraft being phased out or stored as the managed withdrawal of the 752 aircraft was, and a lease/finance arrangement being agreed with a new operator.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
jacobin777
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:54 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 22):
Dream on.

BA need three deck capacity, and the 773ER may be in the running but certainly not in any large number. A reasonable size topup order for transatlantics might be indicated but cargo is an important factor. That would favour a larger order for the A380. Six aircraft is far too little a fleet of A380 for BA's operations, and at least double that number would be needed to impact on any route. UK-OZ is one route where BA could move from the 744 to 388.

right...and I'll believe you over Rod Eddington... sarcastic 

"But Eddington told this website yesterday that the airline wants to see the A380 in service before it makes an "informed decision. We have concerns about the airport's ability to handle 600 passengers."

In terms of its fleet, Eddington said BA's near-term focus is looking for a 767 replacement. "However, we are just putting flat beds in our 767s and they will be in service for another five years, while the 747-400s will be in service for another ten," he said. He suggested that BA's 767 replacements could even be more 777s rather than 787s or A350s. "It could be dash 300ERs, which is a superb 747-400 replacement, and more dash 200s and even the dash 200LR."

Conceding that the long-haul fleet upgrade decision "will not be made on my watch," Eddington said BA and its board also remain focused on debt reduction: "We have reduced our debt from �6.5 billion ($11.9 billion) to �3 billion in three years but we will continue to invest in product improvements." "

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=1106

seems as if nothing has changed with their recent comments regarding the 777's, 787's, and A380's...

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 22):
Willie Walsh is another important factor in BA's future. He has a certain preference for Airbus and GE products, so BA may not be as firmly wedded to Rolls Royce as they have been in recent years.

Willie Walsh will do whats best for BA, regardless of the plane type used...and with the 747ADV being GE powered, it has a better chance than the A380, not to mention, fits into their strategy of incremental growth....

Quoting YYZ4RADD (Reply 27):
BA will buy the A380, regardless Why? Becauase all other majors to London except the US ones (far less profitable) will have it.

BA could care less if they are the only large air carrier in the world without the A380..BA is a business...they will do what will give them the best return on investment........
"Up the Irons!"
 
nickofatlanta
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:17 am

Quoting Joost (Reply 24):
Or LHR-SIN: 21:25 and 21:50 - and a codeshare at 22:05 - can be replaced easily (and will be done by QF already of course).

Probably not the best example as BA will likely want to keep both of these SIN flights since one continues to SYD whilst the other continues to MEL.
 
QFA001
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:59 am

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 22):
The 787 is a bit of an oddball for BA's current fleet requirements. The 763 is split over two distinct segments, namely thinner longhaul and higher capacity European routes. They certainly wouldn't have a requirement for 'many'.

Perhaps not as a direct replacement, but what about opportunities for new direct long-haul destinations that the new breed of mid-size twins could offer them?

Quoting WhiteHatter (Reply 22):
Of course a Trent powered 747X would be a whole new factor if offered at the right price.

There is no choice for Trent on the 747Adv.

Quoting Cornish (Reply 23):
That way another aircraft type is dropped from the fleet (757/767) which would save some costs.

OTOH, if new mid-size twins offer substantial improvements in seat-mile costs then it may 'cost' BA more to 'mis-use' A321s and B777s than it would to have an airplane in between them. Even cost-king Willie Walsh will acknowledge that the company needs to generate good yields to remain strong.

Quoting Avek00 (Reply 32):
There is no amenity that can be *economically* offered on an A380 that cannot also be economically offered on a 747ADV or even 747-400.

I can think of one: passenger lounges in areas in the A380 that are not conducive to actual passenger seats (the B747 has no such areas). OTOH, the 747Adv offers the prospect of being able to use its overhead section for passenger berths, which the A380 can't do.

Quoting FCKC (Reply 34):
Their 767 fleet will be hard to sell at a reasonnable price for them , since they are RR equipped.

Great point. So, perhaps the OEM that wins the BA deal will need to find a solution for BA with regards to those R-R powered B767s?
 
avek00
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Thu Jul 21, 2005 11:28 am

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 36):
In other words, there is more "dead" floor space to play around with in the A380 which cannot generate seat revenue.

The A380 also carries far more dead weight than the 747, which will cause the accountants to nix most grandiose A380 cabin config. plans in short order for most airlines - the plane is significantly HEAVIER than the 744 on a per-seat basis.
Live life to the fullest.
 
squirrel83
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:45 am

"The jury is still out," British Airways Chairman Martin Broughton told the Financial Times of the A380. "None has been delivered yet. We don't have to make a decision just yet. We want to see them fly first. But they are very much on our radar screen."

I really could not see BA having the A380 other than cargo, I see them with 777LR and 787s . . I hope for that as well . . . With the recent announcement or publicity of a 777lr being able to do the LHR-SYD route i would not be supprised to see QF, NZ, UA, CI, and BA purchase the 777-200lr. Wishfull thinking. . .  Cool
A346, 7E7, 747, 777, Sonic Cruiser
 
dutchjet
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Sat Jul 23, 2005 7:10 am

Firstly, I do not think we will hear anything definite from BA for a year or so, while of course BA is looking at its alternatives and window shopping, its not going to make an enormous financial committment to a new longhaul fleet until it has its finances in order. Per mangement, BA needs some more time to clean up debt and get its balance sheet to where they want it to be.

Secondly, so much depends on Boeing and the 747Advanced - I really think that the 747Adavanced is the airliner that BA wants (and if it had Trents, all the better, but that is another story)......I could see BA ordering a mix of 773ERs and 747Advanceds to replace the 763/772A/744 fleet. With some revisions in aircraft allocations, the 772s could take over the 763 long haul routes, some current 772 routes could go to the 773ER, and, the 744 could be replaced by the 747Advanced and a small number of 773ERs. The A380 raises all kinds of issues for BA, they really do not seem to want the extra seats since BA seems to be of the opinion that those extra seats reduce yeilds (even at LHR).

If the 747Advanced is not to be, then BA is going to have to take a different approach and figure out how to operate its longhaul fleet based on the 777 family and BA will probably have no choice but to order the A380. There are certain routes out of LHR that simply require an aircraft bigger than the 773ER. While BA does not want to add seats with the A380, it also cannot afford to cut seats at crowded LHR - and there are routes where frequency is not an answer, such as to Asia, where there is a limited window of reasonable departure times that result in an acceptable arrival time.

As for BA and the 787 (or A350 but not likely) -I dont know, most routes out of LHR worth flying can support a 777 sized aircraft. Unless BA suddenly takes an interest in operating longhaul from UK regional airports, I am not sure that BA needs the 787. As far as replacing the 757 and 767 on European services, with the continued growth of LCCs in Europe, I am not sure that BA will go the widebody route.....my guess is a followup order for the A32X series by which BA will replace the 737, 757, 767 (short haul) and early build A320s (the ex BCal birds).......or could we see a total shocker and BA place a 739ER order for that role? Anything is possible.
 
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Richard28
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Sat Jul 23, 2005 8:39 am

Avek00:

"The A380 also carries far more dead weight than the 747, which will cause the accountants to nix most grandiose A380 cabin config. plans in short order for most airlines - the plane is significantly HEAVIER than the 744 on a per-seat basis."

Indeed.

It depends on what you are putting inside I guess.

If the amenity being put in takes floor space and not much wieght, then economically it could be put in A380 but not B744 series.

The "dead floor space" argument could work with many different amenitites, which would require loss of seat revenue on a B744.

Take a blackjack table for example (plucked out of the air!) not much weight, but could lose a good 12 seats or so of Y class seating.
 
keesje
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:06 am

Looking at BA future requirements (market will triple in twenty years & 744 replaced) I expect them to commit to the A380 within a year (not a few..), as will CX, their HKG "friends". Mentioning the 744adv is necessary, it´s bad negotiating with Leahy when you don´t have an alternative.

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00005513.jpg

On the A350, it doesn´t seem to fit in the BA network. A A332/B788 seat/range capability seems a better fit, just like AF/KL/LH who added medium/long haul flexibility with the A332.

Boyle probably already had an "alignment chat" with Broughton on his A350 statement because it damages BA´s negotiation position towards Boeing on the 787. Probably some BA public "interest" in the A350 in a few months towards the 787 to restore negotiation positions..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
highflyer9790
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:57 am

Hmmm...I don't think Boeing will be happy if BA takes the A380..so look for good deals on the 777LR, 787, and 747Adv... sly 
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ha763
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:33 pm

The pax A380-800 would be a poor choice if BA needed more space for cargo. The A380-800 has a total volume of 5682 cu. ft. for ULDs, while the 747-400 has 5536 cu. ft. for ULDs. If you want ULD numbers, it is 36 containers for the A380-800 and 32 containers for the 747-400. The A380 does have an option for 38 containers, but since it will most likely carry around 100 more pax than a similarly dense 747-400, so those extra ULD spaces will be needed for pax bags.
 
DAYflyer
Topic Author
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:15 pm

It all hinges on priorities. What are the needs of BA for the long term? What are the growth strategies? You may see a mix of the two types in service depending on mission and strategy.
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scbriml
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RE: BA Long Haul Fleet-Reveiwing Options

Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:25 pm

Quoting HighFlyer9790 (Reply 46):
I don't think Boeing will be happy if BA takes the A380..

First, it has nothing to do with Boeing if BA order the A380. Secondly, if they don't have a competing product, they can't be bothered about losing sales to the A380.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!