PanAm747
Topic Author
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Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:46 am

In the last year, SAN has seen two routes receive, shall we say, a large increase in seats among three different carriers:

SAN-IAD - now served by UA (4x a day), Independence Air (1x daily), and Jet Blue (1x daily).

SAN-YVR - nothing for years, now we have Alaska (1x daily, but oddly enough with a 737-700 up but an MD-80 on the return...), HP Express (1x daily on a CRJ-900), and now AC Jazz:

http://www.airliners.net/discussions...eneral_aviation/read.main/2226338/

Now Independence Air to IAD I can understand, but is there really the demand for Jet Blue as well? Any insights?

And now three carriers competing on flights to Vancouver. I would have thought SAN-YYZ would have been reinstated, but now we've got a third carrier on this route as well. And while I'm all for new service, can SAN sustain these flights?

What's going on?

Thanks in advance for all responses!!
Pan Am:The World's Most Experienced Airline - P(oor) S(ailor's) A(irline): San Diego's Hometown Airline-Catch Our Smile!
 
A330323X
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:50 am

Read the thread you linked to, and you'll see that HP is ending its SAN-YVR service.  Smile
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
PanAm747
Topic Author
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:53 am

You are correct - and noticing their flight times on that route, I'm not surprised. Thank you!!
Pan Am:The World's Most Experienced Airline - P(oor) S(ailor's) A(irline): San Diego's Hometown Airline-Catch Our Smile!
 
dforce1
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:02 am

Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
Now Independence Air to IAD I can understand, but is there really the demand for Jet Blue as well? Any insights?

JetBlue is a cash cow. It's a whole new experience which will stimulate the market and is going to kick UA and Independence in the rear. If any of those 3 airlines struggle, it won't be JetBlue. JetBlue service will not only pull in new customers but likely lure current clients of UA. Does Independence or UA have PTV's on every seat and offer rock bottom prices on new A320's? I think not. The low cost carrier revolution has arrived on this route!

Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
And now three carriers competing on flights to Vancouver. I would have thought SAN-YYZ would have been reinstated, but now we've got a third carrier on this route as well. And while I'm all for new service, can SAN sustain these flights?

Perhaps not, but keep in mind two are regional jet operators. They fly regional jets with the expectation of lighter loads and they cost much less to operate than an MD-80. Furthermore, I think you will find that Canadians travelling south bound are more likely to use AC Jazz so it's beneficial for AC to enter the market. Yes, there is a chance one of the carriers will be squeezed out. My prediction is that Alaska will hold strong because this is their main market on the West Coast and they are flying larger aircraft which some prefer to regional jets. AC will stick around because Canadians will opt for them over Alaska in order to collect Aeroplan points. And not only that but AC was voted best airline in North America and personally I'd rather fly AC Jazz and their new RJ's with PTV's over Alaska's bigger planes and nothing but an in-flight mag. HP Express has a lot to lose at this point...
 
MAH4546
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:08 am

Quoting DFORCE1 (Reply 3):
HP Express has a lot to lose at this point...

Which is why, as mentioned, they are ending the route in September.

I think AS will be the strongest on the route. Air Canada has a very shaky history of transborder routes.

Remember Toronto-Austin, Ottawa-San Jose, Fort Lauderdale-Quebec City, Edmonton-San Francisco, Montreal-Manchester, Winnipeg-Denver, Toronto-Daytona Beach, Toronto-Norfolk, Toronto-Jacksonville, Orlando-London, and Toronto-Ontario?

Yeah, I thought so.
a.
 
dforce1
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:29 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):
think AS will be the strongest on the route. Air Canada has a very shaky history of transborder routes.

You're probably right Alaska will be the strongest. But you said it yourself "shaky HISTORY"....also in HISTORY, AC was in bankruptcy protection. Now look at them. It's a new era for AC, recently voted #1 airline in North America. Believe me, the only thing shaking at AC these days are their old Dash 8's. I think AC will do well on this route and their future US transborder routes. They've got better management in place now, better aircraft and it was voted in the past as best business airline in North America. AC will steal passengers from their competitors.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 3:16 am

Quoting PanAm747 (Thread starter):
And while I'm all for new service, can SAN sustain these flights?

SAN can support a lot more flights to new places if the facility capacity were there.
 
UALFAson
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:29 am

Hold your horses there, DFORCE1. I don't think JetBlue is going to rock the IAD-SAN market quite as much as you think. There are still a lot of loyal UA flyers who are going to stick with UA because of FF miles and corporate accounts, along with frequency of flights. Also, the biz travelers want UA's Europe connections and East Coast Express connections through IAD.

That said, I do think this route is reaching oversaturation, if it's not there already. As a standby between IAD and LAX, UA's IAD-SAN-IAD flights are always a great back-up when the IAD-LAX-IAD nonstops are oversold as there are almost always seats available. The problem is getting availablity LAX-SAN.
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Trvlr
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 5:48 am

SAN-IAD and SAN-YVR are not the first routes to experience such drastic capacity increases. Anyone remember last summer, when American and jetBlue each had 3 daily flights to New York/JFK, and Delta also had 2 daily nonstops? Compared to the previous summer, capacity on SAN-JFK rose 100%.

SAN-IAD has certainly become a bloodbath lately. B6 continues its assault on the legacies' transcons, and Independence has probably been a nuisance to both B6 and UA. However, as far as I can tell, Independence is dropping their SAN-IAD flight come fall. There is no mention of it in the OAG and you cannot book tickets on Independence's website.

So, much like HP on SAN-YVR, the oddball carrier on SAN-IAD bit off more than it could chew and is paying the price. Down to 5 daily flights for fall 2005.

Altogether, the current schedule between SAN and IAD is 6 flights a day...a whopping 100% increase from before B6 and DH's entry. United, apparently more concerned with competition from jetBlue than Independence, recently added a 4th daily flight departing in the early morning hours to compete with jetBlue's flight.

Although I expect B6 to make serious inroads on SAN-IAD, I do not think we will see much of a retreat by United, which can probably still make a lot of money via lucrative government/defense contract passengers. B6 may have an excellent economy product, but coach is still coach, and United offers a premium service for which I'm sure the government (if anyone) would pay for its high-profile employees traveling on business.
---
The capacity increase on SAN-YVR is much more interesting in that before 2005, nobody had even served this route for a good 7 years. I really feel sorry for America West, because they had a brilliant idea opening up SAN-YVR. Unfortunately, their move caused Alaska to wake up and start their own service (which in my opinion was long overdue). Alaska, being the stronger carrier on the West Coast and especially in Vancouver, beat HP in every area from market presence to frequent flyer catchment to equipment operated. It is no surprise that HP is ending their flight.

Despite HP's departure, I think the future is bright for SAN-YVR. Alaska and Air Canada will rely on very different markets for their flights (Alaska on its strong West Coast presence and sizeable FF communities in both SAN and YVR, Air Canada on connection in Vancouver and an even greater Aeroplan FF community there), and I believe each will find their niche.

In my opinion, the only thing that could seriously rock the boat on SAN-YVR now would be for a foreign carrier to start flying the route as an extension onto a transcontinental flight (SAN-YVR-MNL, for example).

---

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):

Air Canada is indeed known for its rather puzzling transborder decisions. However, with better management and better equipment coming in each month, I expect AC to know what it's doing post-bankruptcy.

Moreover, airlines have already done their homework on SAN-YVR. Unlike complete and utter oddballs like Ontario, CA, and Norfolk, San Diego has strong existing O&D as well as a sizeable market for the kind of connections available in Vancouver. If any airline besides Alaska could succeed on this route, it's AC.

Aaron G.
 
dforce1
Posts: 506
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:56 pm

Quoting Trvlr (Reply 8):
In my opinion, the only thing that could seriously rock the boat on SAN-YVR now would be for a foreign carrier to start flying the route as an extension onto a transcontinental flight (SAN-YVR-MNL, for example).

Well said, Aaron. I enjoyed reading your analysis. As for your suggested route extension, outstanding idea. Although PAL seems to prefer flying MNL-SFO non-stop. They route the MNL-YVR flight into LAS. Although at one time, they did use to operate the MNL-YVR-SFO. But that was quite a few years ago when PAL first started flying to YVR. I'm still waiting for PAL to upgrade their MNL-YVR service to daily.
 
DCAYOW
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:51 pm

When PAL analyzed the MNL-YVR extension - two cities were considered SAN and LAS. LAS has so much money wrapped up in their ConVis and casino industries that PAL decided to go to LAS instead of SAN. It was a shame.

The references above to Independence Air not being bookable on SAN-IAD - if you check the Indy Air website - no city they served that I checked (SAN-IAD, RSW-IAD, EWR-IAD, SFO-IAD, LAX-IAD) was bookable after mid-November. So I am wondering if something else is happening there.

[Edited 2005-07-22 06:53:36]
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flyboyaz
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 10:55 pm

I'm not suprised the HPX flight is ending...everytime I checked the loads it was about half full. Not sure what the yield was like but obviously they think it isn't working. The SAN to Mexico flights are doing very very well...maybe they'll add another city!
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accargo
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:12 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 4):
I think AS will be the strongest on the route. Air Canada has a very shaky history of transborder routes.

Remember Toronto-Austin, Ottawa-San Jose, Fort Lauderdale-Quebec City, Edmonton-San Francisco, Montreal-Manchester, Winnipeg-Denver, Toronto-Daytona Beach, Toronto-Norfolk, Toronto-Jacksonville, Orlando-London, and Toronto-Ontario?

Nice of you to forget to mention when these routes operated. Most operated pre-9/11 and before the Tech bubble burst. Those incidents decimated the transborder market, and it is still not back to those pax levels. As the new Emb's arrive (15 175's and 45 190's) I believe you will see some of these routes return and others will be added. ACE exec's have mentioned that they wish to improve T/B service from airports other than YYZ in the future, providing more point to point service and bypassing the high costs the GTAA charges at YYZ.

Do you also characterize it's service to LGA, EWR, BOS, MIA, TPA, MCO, RDU, MSY, IAH, DFW, IAD, DCA, LAX, SEA, SFO, LAS, PHX, DEN, MSP, DTW, PIT, CLE, BNA, MCI, STL, and ORD as shaky?
 
stirling
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:21 pm

Speaking of Vancouver.....
I have many friends of Indian descent.
They have relations, business interests in the Vancouver region.
Many fly into BLI with a connection in SEA to avoid the high taxes associated with transborder travel.
And it's not just my Indian/Fiji friends, who travel in large groups, but I know dozens of other people using BLI to access BLI....

Any potential for nonstop BLI-California flights one day?
Delete this User
 
MAH4546
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:42 am

Quoting Accargo (Reply 12):
Nice of you to forget to mention when these routes operated. Most operated pre-9/11 and before the Tech bubble burst. Those incidents decimated the transborder market, and it is still not back to those pax levels.

I'm sorry, but some of those routes operated for less than one month, others were canceled before they ever started (like YYZ-DAB and YYZ-GSP). That is pathetic. I don't care when they were started, but for one airline to have opened so many new routes and stations that have operated for such a short time is really unfortunate. And then there is YUL-FCO, YUL-MEX, YVR-YHZ, etc., etc. Oh yeah, and what genius thought that YYZ-FWA was a good idea?

I do agree under new management they are being more careful, but the old AC basiclly did no market research opening new routes.
a.
 
accargo
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:08 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 14):
I don't care when they were started,

That says it all doesn't it. You only wish to look at part of the issue to prove your point. Have a nice day.
 
dforce1
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Joined: Thu Jul 07, 2005 4:16 am

RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:30 am

Quoting Stirling (Reply 13):
Any potential for nonstop BLI-California flights one day?

YVR is still waiting for non-stop service to India. We haven't had non-stop service since Canada 3000 went bankrupt.
 
san747
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:51 am

Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 10):
When PAL analyzed the MNL-YVR extension - two cities were considered SAN and LAS. LAS has so much money wrapped up in their ConVis and casino industries that PAL decided to go to LAS instead of SAN. It was a shame.

Wow, I never knew PAL considered SAN for it's extension from YVR. Can you imagine a PAL A340 flying into SAN a couple times a week? It was a shame they chose LAS...
Scotty doesn't know...
 
dforce1
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:30 am

Quoting San747 (Reply 17):
Wow, I never knew PAL considered SAN for it's extension from YVR. Can you imagine a PAL A340 flying into SAN a couple times a week? It was a shame they chose LAS...

When he said that, he was referring to San Francisco, not San Diego. PAL currently does fly to San Francisco.
 
gigneil
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:32 am

Quoting DFORCE1 (Reply 3):
Does Independence or UA have PTV's on every seat and offer rock bottom prices on new A320's?

Yes?

FlyI supposedly offers inseat television on their 319s, which is what they fly to SAN, and they're definitely brand new.

N
 
phatfarmlines
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:09 am

Quoting Trvlr (Reply 8):
However, as far as I can tell, Independence is dropping their SAN-IAD flight come fall. There is no mention of it in the OAG and you cannot book tickets on Independence's website.



Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 10):
The references above to Independence Air not being bookable on SAN-IAD - if you check the Indy Air website - no city they served that I checked (SAN-IAD, RSW-IAD, EWR-IAD, SFO-IAD, LAX-IAD) was bookable after mid-November.



DH is dropping IAD-SJC per thistopic discussed several days ago. DH's booking system is similar to that of WN's where DH only opens up several months at a time. At the time of writing this reply, the reservation cutoff date is November 15, 2005.

Quoting DCAYOW (Reply 10):
So I am wondering if something else is happening there.

I'm sure we'll find out on July 27, 2005, when DH reports its 2nd quarter results.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 19):
FlyI supposedly offers inseat television on their 319s, which is what they fly to SAN, and they're definitely brand new.

DH offers Digeplayers for rent on the A319s. The seat-back tv's DH had originally planned is scrapped.

DH Digeplayer
 
DCAYOW
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Sat Jul 23, 2005 5:36 am

Quoting DFORCE1 (Reply 18):
When he said that, he was referring to San Francisco, not San Diego. PAL currently does fly to San Francisco

I meant San Diego. When PAL entered Las Vegas in 2004 as a tag from YVR, it was as a result of PAL's request for information from both Las Vegas and San Diego Airports in the summer/autumn of 2003.
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flyibaby
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Wed Jul 27, 2005 6:45 am

Quoting Phatfarmlines (Reply 20):
DH is dropping IAD-SJC per thistopic discussed several days ago. DH's booking system is similar to that of WN's where DH only opens up several months at a time. At the time of writing this reply, the reservation cutoff date is November 15, 2005.

This is true, and DH is also publishing its September schedule change online and via OAG so this could be a reason why. Probably not allowing booking until then just to limit the number of people affected by a schedule change.

Quoting Phatfarmlines (Reply 20):
DH offers Digeplayers for rent on the A319s. The seat-back tv's DH had originally planned is scrapped

PTV's haven't been scrapped, just won't happen until profitability has been reached. Ultimately to many naysayers, this has the meaning of never, but I've learned over the years never say never.

All of DH's west coast routes are doing extremely well. A "low fare" is really hard to find especially since these markets don't appear to be just residents of DC/VA traveling RT. Bookings appear to show about 50% originating in west coast. For any space available passengers, good luck, most likely you won't get on.
 
Airline7322
Posts: 104
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RE: Overcapacity SAN-IAD And SAN-YVR

Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:21 am

Quoting Trvlr (Reply 8):
Although I expect B6 to make serious inroads on SAN-IAD, I do not think we will see much of a retreat by United, which can probably still make a lot of money via lucrative government/defense contract passengers. B6 may have an excellent economy product, but coach is still coach, and United offers a premium service for which I'm sure the government (if anyone) would pay for its high-profile employees traveling on business.

Trvlr... the government never pays for any government employee to fly first-class unless the flight is over six hours. Even then, the best you can do is business class. My father, a long time government employee, can attest to this.
"Good ideas must be driven into practice with courageous patience."

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