Alessandro
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New 737 Will It Sell?

Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:54 pm

Will the latest B739 sell?
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Alessandro
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Fri Jul 22, 2005 11:56 pm

For more info see www.boeing.com
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B742
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:03 am

I think it will sell!

Lion Air, JAL, MH, QF are all possible carriers among others!

Will Ryanair, Air Berlin or any of the major low cost carriers order the 900ER?

Rob!  Smile
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:05 am

Well, since Lion Air has ordered 60 of them, I'd say yes  Wink . But aside from that, I expect the 739ER to get orders from airlines such as AS, WN, Jet Airways, Hapag-Lloyd, among others. It should easily reach 100 orders (not including the Lion Air order, as I still have my doubts about whether that airline will actually take delivery of all of them).
 
brons2
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:15 am

I read on another group that other airlines with options would be able to exercise those options at previously negiotiated prices on the -900ER. Could be an attractive option (no pun intended) for some airlines.
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
 
Boeing Nut
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:29 am

Ummm, I think it has already sold!  bigmouth 
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
roseflyer
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:58 am

I think the bigger question is that how much will it sell. Some stretches and range extensions really sell well and have propelled an airplane into the market. A great example is the 767-300ER. The 767-200 was a good seller, but things did not truly pick up until the new update was developed some 7 years later. Another example is the 747-400 and how it revitalized the 747 line. On the other hand, the 757-300 was a good plane, but didn't sell well. Same with the 767-400. Boeing probably did not lose money on these other extensions, but it they did not sell in huge quantities.

The big question I have is: is the 737-900ER too late? How many more years will the 737NG series sell well. Personally I believe the entire lineup of 737s will be gone in ten years as new technology such as light weight composites, and bleedless engines makes its way into the narrowbody market. The 737 sells great now, but once the 787/A350 is in service, A and B are likely to dive into the narrowbody market to race to update their products there since that is the highest demand market for commercial airplanes. I believe that the 737-900ER will have some success, but unless it wins some big orders soon, it might not get enough attention, and will lose out as the 737 (and A320) lines get updated. I honestly feel that the 737-900ER should have been launched years ago to coincide with the ending of the 757 line.

The 757-300 was a great plane, but it came at a time when most airlines had already built up their 757 fleets and did not have the need for a 200 seat plane. Most of the network carriers now (which are the ones that actually would benefit from an increased payload on the 737-900 the most since they operate longer transcon flights) have already built up their 737/A320 narrowbody fleets and aren't looking to acquire (even if they had money). The focus is on buying larger international planes. Are there enough airlines looking to buy narrowbodies that will be able to make the 737-900ER as successful as the 73G or 738? I am cautiously optimistic, and believe that 100-200 frames will be built.

[Edited 2005-07-22 18:25:37]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
SNATH
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:05 am

RoseFlyer,

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 6):
The big question I have is: is the 737-900ER too late?

I will violently agree with you.  bigthumbsup  The B737-900 should have been what the B737-900ER will be since the beginning.

Tony
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DAYflyer
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:59 am

One of the original prospective customers was JAL but I have not heard of a firm order yet from them. I do expect JAL and ANA will also place orders.
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kaitak744
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:07 am

And possibly orders from Korean Air or KLM?
 
irelayer
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:57 am

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 6):
On the other hand, the 757-300 was a good plane, but didn't sell well. Same with the 767-400.

753 was too late. Boeing only developed it towards the tail end of the product lifecycle, and thus gave the airlines a small window in which to order it, because the 752 wasn't getting many more orders and as a result Boeing needed a lot of 753 orders in a short period of time to sustain the line, which of course, it didn't get. I think if they would have developed it in the early 90's instead of the late 90's it would have sold a lot better. It is a very popular airplane in the second-hand market, a perfect replacement for Domestic DC-10's, and a good replacement for A310's.

As for the 764ER, that was a plane specifically tailored to two customers (three actually): CO, DL, and AA. AA didn't take any, but CO and DL did and they are happy with them insofar as they offer decent economics, range, and capacity, while maintaining fleet commonality (don't the 764 and 777 have the same type rating?). I don't think it was made to compete on the open market with the A330 and Boeing knew that.

-IR
 
roseflyer
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 11:49 am

IRelayer, I agree that the 753 came too late in the production life of the 757. However the same question can be asked for the 739ER. While the 737 is still getting orders, a lot of airlines have already established their fleets with certain types. While it is in a better position than the 753 to compete, it could run into trouble as the 737NGs are 8 years old, and new technology is being developed. The 737 classics only sold for 13 years, so how much longer will the 737 NGs still be selling?
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:41 pm

Def With the B739 v/s B739ER.The latter is a better Aircraft.Matter of time before 9W picks them in my opinion.
regds
MEL
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DfwRevolution
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 1:44 pm

>> The 737 classics only sold for 13 years, so how much longer will the 737 NGs still be selling?

Actually, the first 733 order was in 1981 and the last 733 order was in 1999, even after the 737NG was available for sale. That's a product cylce of approx. 20 years, which is about average for a narrow-body type. The 737NG appearing so rapidly after the 733 was, in part, because of a new entrant to the market: the A320. Since there is likely to be no such disruption to the 737NG product cylce, I'd expect Boeing to stretch the line to it's fullest extent.

Figuring that the 737NG was available for sale in 1993, a 737NG replacement should start gathering momentum for a 2010-2015 EIS. Most 737NG orders, options, and purchase rights terminate in 2012, so I think it's safe to assume something will happen around this time.

At the very least, the 737NG has five strong years worth of orders remaining.
 
TokyoNarita
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:07 pm

Quote:
One of the original prospective customers was JAL but I have not heard of a firm order yet from them. I do expect JAL and ANA will also place orders

Just because it's Boeing, it does not necessary mean JAL and ANA would jump on it and place order right away. In fact, I feel that it is unlikely they would order this B737-900ER just like ANA and JAL never touched the B757. It does not exactly fit anywhere in their fleet planning. They already picked B787 to replace the B767 both international and domestic. Both carriers already placed large amount of order (over 30) for B737NG (the 800s and possibly convert some orders to the 700s)

I do see this B737-900ER making excellent replacement type for some of the old B757s/B762s that are flying around since the mid 1980s though...some of the Delta, American, United, America West/U.S. Airways birds will eventually need replacement relatively soon in the future. What about Southwest running transcons or Hawaii with this thing where they can use the range and the capacity? I would think that's where the orders will go.

TokyoNarita.

[Edited 2005-07-23 07:15:05]
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:12 pm

>> Just because it's Boeing, it does not necessary mean JAL and ANA would jump on it and place order right away. In fact, I feel that it is unlikely they would order this B737-900ER just like ANA and JAL never touched the B757. It does not exactly fit anywhere in their fleet planning.


Actually, that JL 737NG order placed just a few months ago included options for the then 737-900X, and it was heavily rumoured that they would be the launch customer. It is a very distinct possibility that JL will order the 739ER at some point.
 
CO737800
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:12 pm

I can see Westjet getting some 739ER's. They could fill them up easily on the YVR-HNL run
 
ikramerica
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:19 pm

In America, the 739ER could take over duty for many routes that the 752 has traditionally been used on since many 752s are:

1. old
2. being moved to international/special duty

The 739ER will be more efficient than a 752 on domestic, non-cargo routes where the extra fuel tank won't eat into revenue.

Why is the 739ER a good choice rather than new 752s, so much so that the 757 line was ended?

Same reason Airbus states for everything they do. Commonality.

Boeings 737NG line is in broader use around the world than the 757,with a much newer installed base. While you wouldn't see WN adding 757s, you could see them go for the 739ER. Same for other LCCs.

And CO wasn't about to buy more 752s nor 739s due to money problems and for the 739, lack of value, but now with their new strategy, they could use more 752s, and the 739ER is an improvement over the 739, and a good alternative to 752 domestic US use considering their extensive 737 fleet. Not quite the 24F/159Y capacity of the 752, but at 20F/156Y, it would be a good plane nonetheless, with 2F/7Y more pax than the 739, but more efficient.

I see the point of an emergency door, but I'm not sure why they don't also offer a door 2 position instead, for easier loading like the 752/753 and A321. A 739ER with 180 two class pax will take a while to load from door 1.
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iowaman
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:45 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
In America, the 739ER could take over duty for many routes that the 752 has traditionally been used on since many 752s are:

1. old
2. being moved to international/special duty

Old? Hardly! And special duty?? I think you need to check your facts bud.
 
TokyoNarita
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:47 pm

Quote:
Actually, that JL 737NG order placed just a few months ago included options for the then 737-900X.

Okay I missed that. The option not only included the B737-700 and the 800s but also the 900X...although I am still not sure they would go for the bigger equipment (900X) because they are trying to replace the MD-81, MD-87, MD-90, and B737-400...they all have 160 seats or less. It seems to me B737-800 single class with approximately up to almost 180 seats (20 seats more capacity than current fleet) and smaller (B737-700) are the likely candidates. Some will definitely go to JEX (JAL express) and JTA (Japan Transocean Air) to serve between medium to small cities...the 700's are perfect for that. They don't need the range of the 900X because these are primary for domestic use around Japan.

TokyoNarita.

[Edited 2005-07-23 08:10:21]
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sat Jul 23, 2005 2:49 pm

Quoting IRelayer (Reply 10):
a perfect replacement for Domestic DC-10's, and a good replacement for A310's.

Sufficient, yes... perfect, no.

Namely, cargo.

Quoting IRelayer (Reply 10):
(don't the 764 and 777 have the same type rating?)

No, but they can have similar cockpits.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
srbmod
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sun Jul 24, 2005 5:29 am

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 18):
And special duty??

I would consider Song's and UA's Premium Service 757-200s to be special duty.

As for the 737-900ER, I wouldn't be surprised if many of the LCCs and a number of charter operators order it or convert existing 73G/738/739 options for the new version.
 
UAMAYBACH1239
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sun Jul 24, 2005 7:46 am

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 11):
The 737 classics only sold for 13 years, so how much longer will the 737 NGs still be selling?

The 737 line can in a sense sell forever. There will always be updates and improvements, but realisticly, its closer than any other a/c on the world as being a carrirers domestic workhorse, int'l workhorse, charter, freighter, etc...
it would have to be completely uprooted by another a/c to fall off, its pedestal. I can't see that happening.  Cool
a/c flown 737-222/322/522 757/747-1-2-4, 767-2-3, 777-2-3, A319-20, DC10-10-30, L1011-3-5, 727-222adv, MD85-90 flyourfri
 
ikramerica
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sun Jul 24, 2005 8:48 am

Quoting Iowaman (Reply 18):
Old? Hardly! And special duty?? I think you need to check your facts bud.

You need to stop being a punk, bud. What facts you want checked? The age of many USA 757 fleets? The fact that they are being moved to ETOPS and special routes/service more and more? The fact that airlines are learning to push them to their limits?

Old? yeah, some are over 20 years old. That's old for a tier 1 airline! Just ask anyone who flies AA how old their 752s are, both in real age and interiors. I recently flew on one of COs OLD 752s, and it was noticeably louder than their newer ones.

So what do they replace it with? The 739ER would be a fine choice for HALF the tasks the 752 is used for. It can't do the other 1/2, but an airline would keep it's newer 752s for that, until a 752/737NG replacement comes along in 2012 or so.

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 21):
I would consider Song's and UA's Premium Service 757-200s to be special duty.

So would I, but maybe you and I need to check our facts.

I also consider all the charters 757s are used for to be special duty, the conversion of CO's 752s to business first for international and transcon use to be special duty, AA considering the same idea, etc.

As the 752 ages, I think you will see more and more the newer 752s becoming an international/Hawaii/premium style plane on middle range routes, while the older ones will be sold off to second tier airlines. That means the void would need to be filled with a new plane that basically matches the 752 in capacity but is better in the 1200-2800nm range, ideal for lower yield east coast routes and middle-US hub service.

The original 739 could have been this plane, but B was still selling the 752 and didn't let it be usurped. Now with the 752 gone, the 739 needs to be redone as it should have been to begin with, with modified wing, bulkhead, structure for more doors, fuel capacity, etc.

But of course, this is just a stopgap measure until the 797, theorized to come in 5 lengths, wider fuselage, 2 different wing options, and a new broad engine class. But the 739ER, should it sell well, will allow Boeing to concentrate on the 736/73G/738 3500nm replacement first in 3 sizes (792/793/794) while still selling the 739ER, then offer the longer range 2nd wing 738/739/752/753 4500nm replacement (794ER, 795, 796) 2-3 years later.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sun Jul 24, 2005 9:19 am

>> I see the point of an emergency door, but I'm not sure why they don't also offer a door 2 position instead, for easier loading like the 752/753 and A321

Not exactly my area of expertise, but I don't believe the extra exit for the 739ER is a full-sized door like those at the front and rear of the airplane. What you suggest would be sort of like boarding passengers through the over-wing exits..


>> The 737 line can in a sense sell forever. There will always be updates and improvements, but realisticly, its closer than any other a/c on the world as being a carrirers domestic workhorse, int'l workhorse, charter, freighter, etc...

Given the comments made by Boeing as to the scope of what is to replace the 737NG, it's likely that this is the last generation of the venerable 737 series. Whatever comes next will likely be 100% all-new, retaining only opperational aspects like cross-compatibility with 737 pilot pools.
 
highflyer9790
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RE: New 737 Will It Sell?

Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:21 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
In America, the 739ER could take over duty for many routes that the 752 has traditionally been used on since many 752s are:

1. old
2. being moved to international/special duty

Well, I dont think the 757 (which is a wonderful airplane) should be looking for a retirement home just yet.....

Lion Air, JAL, MH, and QF have all showed interest in the 739ER...so we'll have to wait and see how it does..

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 6):
The big question I have is: is the 737-900ER too late?

Well...maybe. at least it still ahs a chance.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 6):
How many more years will the 737NG series sell well.

I think the 737NG series is a terrific line, and so long as WN is around, we don't have to worry...LOL
 laughing 
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