JetSOUTHEAST
Topic Author
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The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 6:36 am

What do all of you think is in store for MEM in the next decade? With the labor issues at NW, and the siphoning of MEM routes to Pinnacle and Mesaba, do you think it will one day be like DL was in DFW in the end, or do you think NW might close it all together? I know its a vital hub to the Southeast and has alot of traffic, but I never hear MEM mentioned in Northwest plans. Seems like DTW and MSP get all the attention because they are bigger. I would be interested to see if Southwest attempts to go there, because I find it odd they dont.
 
dolphinflyer
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:04 am

Dear JetSOUTHEAST -

You raise an interesting point. I think the answer lies in the degree to which the Skyteam members are granted antitrust immunity by the DOT, and as such, to what degree they begin to make macro-level strategic planning decisions rather than sticking to carrier-level micro-level issues. When you look at Skyteam member (DL, CO, NW) domestic hubs, they are: ATL, JFK, EWR, CLE, CVG, DTW, MEM, MSP, IAH and SLC. Clearly, there is room for consolidation at NYC, where EWR would be the logical "winner", and there's too much overlap between CLE/CVG/DTW, where NW's DTW hub would stand to be the surviving hub, based on a large local population base, strong O&D and geographic dispersion. In the South-Central region of the country, MEM is overshadowed by IAH, and longer-term could be eclipsed by the larger Texan hub. However, if full antitrust is not granted, and each carrier (CO, DL, NW) pursues their individual interests, then the MEM hub is likely to remain intact in its current state.

Another caveat - if NW is forced into bankruptcy sometime this fall, then they could choose to scale back operations, and MEM could wind up as a sacrificial lamb, with refocus on DTW and MSP.
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:08 am

You could say that MEM is really the last hub of its kind. Many airlines in the late 80's to mid 90's had hubs of similar size in cities/metro areas of similar size (i.e., AA at BNA and RDU, CO at GSO, etc.) that have long since dissappared in favor of mega hubs in cities that produce large O&D numbers. It's really hard to say. I think for the most part NWA is happy and content on the role that MEM serves for them. NWA is currently going through some turbulent times right now however. If they do pull through, I think they will retain a hub there as it is a good alternative for people flying from the southeast and Florida to the west coast and vice versa rather than routing them all the way up to DTW and MSP. It's also a less congested alternative to ATL and DFW and also Northwest's only "warm weather hub". I have passed through there many times, and am always impressed with the ease of connecting there. However, if NWA should link or merge with, say for example, Continental or Delta, I think you could easily see MEM's days as a hub numbered due to it's low O/D numbers in favor of moving the hub to the larger IAH or ATL, respectively. It's low O/D numbers in the end may be what could hurt MEM's status as a hub.

[Edited 2005-08-01 00:10:26]
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:30 am

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 2):
You could say that MEM is really the last hub of its kind.

...lest you forget:
CVG, CLE, SLC, etc?

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 2):
It's low O/D numbers in the end may be what could hurt MEM's status as a hub.

Well, in a post NWA-hub world, MEM's low O&D effectively guarantees that it wouldn't be a large focus city-- but perhaps there's some hope of it being a hub (in the true sense) based on FX's presence there:
FX pays a large portion of the airport's costs, but primarily operates during off-peak (i.e., night) hours. I'd say that's one the primary reasons even NW's hub remains
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
B4REAL
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:52 am

Quoting Dolphinflyer (Reply 1):
nd there's too much overlap between CLE/CVG/DTW, where NW's DTW hub would stand to be the surviving hub

I don't know if I'd say it that way. I'd rather say that CLE would be the losing hub.

(Assuming DL and NW don't file BK)
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
 
LambertMan
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 7:52 am

Northwest at Memphis comes down to

A. No Southwest, or at least currently

and

B. No other viable southern hub option

I'm not saying that NW is screwed into having MEM as its hub, I'm just saying its the best possible option out there right now. Add in the fact that they basically have the market (albeit a little one) wrapped up, and a long history with MEM, they most certainly aren't going anywhere. I would assume that MEM will continue to serve as the third hub, and see small growth increments like we have seen in the past.

The comparison of DL at DFW is a bit different. DFW was already an incredibly saturated market, and the hub was basically serving very little purpose. It covered areas that SLC and ATL could have got to easily, so the hub was kind of pointless. MEM, OTOH, has basically nobody except NW and it would leave a gigantic hole in NW's route map.

Quoting JetSOUTHEAST (Thread starter):
I would be interested to see if Southwest attempts to go there, because I find it odd they dont.

NW has let MEM city hall know that they will pack up if WN enters.
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:09 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 3):
...lest you forget:
CVG, CLE, SLC, etc

I'll give you SLC and maybe to an extent CLE, however CLE's metro area is substantially larger than MEM and the cities I was comapring it to (BNA, RDU, GSO) although the number of flights is roughly alike (200 plus). Also, I would not include CVG as a comparison. Although metro size might be similar, CVG is a much larger hub for DL than MEM is for NWA. CVG has 560 daily flights compared to NWA's 220 or so flights at MEM, not to mention CVG has more European flights (CVG has non stop to LGW, CDG, FRA & AMS while MEM only has nonstop to AMS).
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:20 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 3):
FX pays a large portion of the airport's costs, but primarily operates during off-peak (i.e., night) hours. I'd say that's one the primary reasons even NW's hub remains

Interestingly, though, SDF has not been able to reap similar benefits related to their similar location and status with 5X.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
FedEx
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 8:26 am

There are rumors here in Memphis about Tunica Airport trying to enter the "please come here Southwest" race as soon as their expansion is complete. With such a low O&D percentage here in Memphis, I can't see it happening. I don't know how much business travels to either Nashville or Little Rock from Memphis for the sole reason to fly Southwest, but I would doubt it's enough to open a new station. Do you guys agree?
 
JetSOUTHEAST
Topic Author
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 9:43 am

Well I know some lady operated a bus from MEM to LIT which shuttled plane loads of O/D pax to WN there. They had booming business, I don't know if she still does it though. I can see WN pounding down a nearby area, such as Tunica, with its Casino's or Tupelo/Oxford, with the University of Mississippi being there/Elvis birthplace, etc.
 
MAH4546
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 9:55 am

Quoting Fedex (Reply 8):
With such a low O&D percentage here in Memphis, I can't see it happening. I don't know how much business travels to either Nashville or Little Rock from Memphis for the sole reason to fly Southwest, but I would doubt it's enough to open a new station. Do you guys agree?

Memphis would have zero problems supporting Southwest. Zero.

And Northwest wouldn't be a problem, because I don't see them being able to run WN out.
a.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 10:56 am

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 6):
I would not include CVG as a comparison.

...why not?

It's essentially the same thing:
a "manufactured hub" with little O&D (some of that due to stifling prices however) and essentially no LoCo service such that yields can remain high. How large it is relative to the rest of DL's operation really doesn't change any of that.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 10):
Memphis would have zero problems supporting Southwest. Zero.

Agrees... assuming of course, a post-NW departure.

I certainly do not agree with the idea of MEM being able to successfully support both carriers, if that's what you're implying, however.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
aa777jr
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 11:56 am

The only time I flew outta MEM was on KL to AMS. The airport is great! I got some great fried chicken before my flight.

Getting back on topic, FX is huge at MEM, the airport will only get bigger and better in 10 years. (IMHO).

Regards.
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
hz747300
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:21 pm

The airport is old too. I flew NW a few years ago EWR-MEM/MEM-PHX and my first thought was this place needs to be updated. NW is probably fine in MEM for the moment, but I would not say that it will be a hub of growth. I'm actually surprised WN has not made it in there yet, but again, it should be up to NW alone to resolve any problems that WN landing in MEM creates.

The travelling consumer is who should decide who wins or loses that proposed race should it happen.
Keep on truckin'...
 
m404
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:50 pm

MEM sustained by FX = Except for the deadhead crews going through the terminal very little money comes from Fred to the passenger side. Sure, landing fees are cheaper when dispersed thru all carriers but if NW failed and WN did not come the cities loans would default too.

MEM vs ATL = Let's throw DLs future in with this equation. If DL does not transform would that make MEM less likely to die? Does anyone really doubt NW will transform itself? Who has a better chance right now, DL or NW?

Terminal improvements = Already in progress and planned by the county. At least the financial phase. I'd bet everyones holding their breath right now waiting to see what happens with NW however with the debt load Shelby county already has and it's dubious ratings. Airport bonds are separate I believe but would sell at a better rate in a more vibrant financial arena. Raisin

[Edited 2005-08-01 06:57:31]

The Betty Bus - I think it's still plying between LIT and MEM. Lots of business to WN.

Tunica - Probably more of a Casion Express kind of operation than a regional airport. Not near enough pax coming through MEM to Tunica to call for much else. That would still leave far too many people trying to get back to the city. Southaven, Mississippi's fastest growing city is still closer to MEM than Tunica.

Northwest - After the dust settles from the union busting attempts and the threat that gives anyone else on the property NW should be able to acheive the payscales they want (but certainly not the relationship with the employees a service company needs). The pension changes now in the Senate and BK law arrangements before a pro-corporate administration may enable NW to come back able to co-exist with a WN in MEM and elsewhere. NW may be able to go through this process far quicker than carriers before them and maintain a higher cash balance in the process. I'd bet that's what this whole thing is about wouldn't you?

[Edited 2005-08-01 07:22:43]
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
SESGDL
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 1:55 pm

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 11):

It's essentially the same thing:
a "manufactured hub" with little O&D (some of that due to stifling prices however) and essentially no LoCo service such that yields can remain high. How large it is relative to the rest of DL's operation really doesn't change any of that.

CVG's O&D should be substantially higher than it is. Due to DL's high fares, which have recently been lowered, O&D from CVG was diminished. CVG's O&D should be comparable to that of STL, who's O&D is respectable for a city its size, CVG's O&D is extremely weak for a city that large. Though CVG is larger, CMH has higher O&D.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 11):
Agrees... assuming of course, a post-NW departure.

I certainly do not agree with the idea of MEM being able to successfully support both carriers, if that's what you're implying, however.

I disagree with you, it's been shown time and time again that low fares stimulate O&D numbers. NW's dominance at MEM has hurt the city's O&D numbers. Look at NW's "Big" hubs at DTW and MSP. DTW has a population of over 5 million, while MSP's population is about 3 million. However, both cities O&D is relatively the same. DTW's should be a lot higher. Having a mega-hub with a major dominating, and no substantial competition hurts a city. If WN was to set up shop at MEM with at least 30 daily flights, I wouldn't be surprised to see MEM O&D increase by 30-40%, maybe more. And NW would be there to fight for every additional passenger. For airports, competition is a very good thing.

Jeremy
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 3:37 pm

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 15):

CVG's O&D should be substantially higher than it is. Due to DL's high fares, which have recently been lowered, O&D from CVG was diminished. CVG's O&D should be comparable to that of STL, who's O&D is respectable for a city its size, CVG's O&D is extremely weak for a city that large. Though CVG is larger, CMH has higher O&D.

...um, do you think I wrote the whole "stifling prices" bit for my good health?  Yeah sure

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 15):
it's been shown time and time again that low fares stimulate O&D numbers. *** I wouldn't be surprised to see MEM O&D increase by 30-40%, maybe more.

...and to what avail (so far as NW is concerned) would said increase be since that airport's yields would, not could, then drop off the proverbial cliff?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
commavia
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:48 pm

In general, IMO, MEM has the best of both worlds -- they currently enjoy hub service by a major U.S. network carrier, something that -- as others have said -- is a rarity for a city MEM's size in the post-9/11 world. In addition, most importantly, they have hedged their bets by also being the hub and home base of FedEx, the world's largest express delivery company and one of the most admired, respected and consistently successful companies in America.

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 2):
You could say that MEM is really the last hub of its kind.

I agree. AA cut STL more than in half, US cut PIT more than in half, CO cut its GSO hub operations, DL dropped DFW completely and UA has scaled back LAX. Every one of the network carriers has lost one of their main U.S. hubs except NW, which has retained the MSP-DTW-MEM trifecta for a while.

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 2):
It's also a less congested alternative to ATL and DFW and also Northwest's only "warm weather hub".

The "warm weather" is a big plus -- just like Russia's conquest throughout its history in the Black and Caspian Sea in search of warm weather ports for survival. In the dead of winter, when MSP and DTW are both snowed in, with nothing getting in and out, MEM can be enjoying fine weather and easy connections.

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 2):
However, if NWA should link or merge with, say for example, Continental or Delta, I think you could easily see MEM's days as a hub numbered due to it's low O/D numbers in favor of moving the hub to the larger IAH or ATL, respectively.

Agreed. Show NW merge with DL, as is rumored, MEM will be the first thing to go. DL will never tolerate NW operating from MEM to the same markets DL flies to from ATL, and on an operational and network planning basis, they would be right. If the networks of NW and DL were to be combined, MEM would be completely redundant to the larger, more developed and far more expansive ATL hub which offers connections to just about every city NW serves from MEM.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 10):
Memphis would have zero problems supporting Southwest.

Agreed again. If WN entered MEM, the flights would be full and profitable. However, as MEM is already a city hanging on by a thread in keeping a major airline hub, I think that largely speaking, MEM would have to make a long-term decision between WN and NW. Realistically, I think it has to be one or the other, it can't be both. WN would drop NW's yields so dramatically and many shorthaul routes that it now flies with CRJs by flying their 737s.
 
m404
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Mon Aug 01, 2005 4:52 pm

If MEM had gate avail how would the city deny them access. Bet the courts would have a field day with that one.
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:08 am

Quoting M404 (Reply 14):
Terminal improvements = Already in progress and planned by the county. At least the financial phase.

Is the rotunda where B splits done yet? When I was through in January, that area looked like it was going to be nice.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 15):
Look at NW's "Big" hubs at DTW and MSP. DTW has a population of over 5 million, while MSP's population is about 3 million. However, both cities O&D is relatively the same. DTW's should be a lot higher.

...but DTW has NK and WN, while MSP has SY, FL, F9 and TZ (both have HP is you'd like to count them as an LCC). I've not done the addition, but I think in terms of flights and seats, the LCC service to both cities is comparable. I think the O&D disparity has to do with something besides the amount of LCC competition.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
jetdeltamsy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 1:54 am

I'm surprised NW has kept MEM a hub this long. I thought after they entered Skyteam, they would shift most of that demand to Delta operated flights and reposition those planes and crews to DTW and MSP. But that hasn't happened yet.

If there's a strike, there could be major backlash from management. I think MEM would be high on the chopping-block list.
Tired of airline bankruptcies....EA/PA/TW and finally DL.
 
NASOCEANA
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 2:57 am

It will become a more dominate Freight hub, as FedEx continues to move with greater presence into the Asia market. I believe that FedEx is the first cargo operator to receive the A380F. So it will become more efficient to move cargo from the United States to the rest of the world over night.
B777 greatest Airliner ever built!
 
fedexexpress
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 3:56 am

you people keep talking about MEM what about IND.. It is home to the second largest FedEx operation in the world, and is expanding alot more than MEM is. MEM is land locked and i have a document that has all the plans Fedex wants to do to IND. In 15 to 20 years IND will have a larger operation than MEM does when it comes to FEDEX. I think IND also does well considering all the major airports close to it, and still feeds over 8 million people a year. Good for IND .. Eric
"Its not what your country can do for you its what you can do for your country" JFK
 
blackearth
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:47 am

The imminent demise of MEM as a hub has been circulating on this board for years it seems. It may well happen, who knows? But for the time being, MEM seems to fit NWA quite nicely, and I presume NWA has been happy with that arrangement of the past 20 years.

So barring something drastic--and drastic may be normal nowadays--such as a merger or sharp restructuring, I imagine MEM will continue on as a hub.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 3):
Well, in a post NWA-hub world, MEM's low O&D effectively guarantees that it wouldn't be a large focus city-- but perhaps there's some hope of it being a hub (in the true sense) based on FX's presence there:
FX pays a large portion of the airport's costs, but primarily operates during off-peak (i.e., night) hours. I'd say that's one the primary reasons even NW's hub remains

Memphis has been a hub for airlines before FedEx became a big player in the mid-eighties: Southern Airways--1970-1979, Republic--1979-1985.

Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 22):
you people keep talking about MEM what about IND.. It is home to the second largest FedEx operation in the world, and is expanding alot more than MEM is. MEM is land locked and i have a document that has all the plans Fedex wants to do to IND. In 15 to 20 years IND will have a larger operation than MEM does when it comes to FEDEX. I think IND also does well considering all the major airports close to it, and still feeds over 8 million people a year. Good for IND .. Eric

I guess it's because this thread is about MEM's future.
 
MAH4546
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:56 am

Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 22):
you people keep talking about MEM what about IND.

I know, I'm shocked. People talking about MEM in a thread called "The Future Of Memphis International Airport".

Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 22):
In 15 to 20 years IND will have a larger operation than MEM does when it comes to FEDEX.

I find that hard to believe. Though in 20 years, anything is possible.
a.
 
nycflyer
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 4:59 am

Quoting LambertMan (Reply 5):
NW has let MEM city hall know that they will pack up if WN enters.

That seems like a real cop out to me. If that's the attitude, why don't all airlines just go out of business and let Southwest take over the world? US seems to be holding off WN at PHL, NW should stick it out and do the same in MEM. One of these days, WN will get theirs.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 15):
Though CVG is larger, CMH has higher O&D.

Actually, CMH is a bigger city than CVG, both in terms of city and metro area. Around 2000, CMH overtook CLE as the largest city in Ohio.
 
MAH4546
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 5:04 am

Quoting NYCFlyer (Reply 25):

Actually, CMH is a bigger city than CVG, both in terms of city and metro area.

No, it isn't.

23) Cleveland - 2,147,832
24) Cincinnati - 2,050,746
31) Columbus - 1,659,813
http://www.proximityone.com/msa03us.htm

Quoting NYCFlyer (Reply 28):
Around 2000, CMH overtook CLE as the largest city in Ohio.

In terms of city proper, Columbus has been larger than Cleveland for a longtime. Since the mid-1980s at least.
a.
 
nycflyer
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 5:29 am

Quoting LambertMan (Reply 5):
NW has let MEM city hall know that they will pack up if WN enters.

That seems like a real cop out to me. If that's the attitude, why don't all airlines just go out of business and let Southwest take over the world? US seems to be holding off WN at PHL, NW should stick it out and do the same in MEM. One of these days, WN will get theirs.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 15):
Though CVG is larger, CMH has higher O&D.

Actually, CMH is a bigger city than CVG, both in terms of city and metro area. Around 2000, CMH overtook CLE as the largest city in Ohio.
 
LambertMan
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 5:31 am

Quoting NYCFlyer (Reply 28):
That seems like a real cop out to me. If that's the attitude, why don't all airlines just go out of business and let Southwest take over the world? US seems to be holding off WN at PHL, NW should stick it out and do the same in MEM. One of these days, WN will get theirs.

I think it has more to do with NW knowing the importance it has to MEM. They know service levels would substantially drop, and they take advantage of it. Cop out? Yes. Smart? Yes.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 5:34 am

Quoting NYCFlyer (Reply 25):
US seems to be holding off WN at PHL, NW should stick it out and do the same in MEM.

um.....you don't think PHL being in the top 20 O&D airports, whereas MEM fails to make the top 50, might just have some'n to do with it?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
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yyz717
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 8:32 am

Quoting LambertMan (Reply 5):
NW has let MEM city hall know that they will pack up if WN enters.

Is this just rumour or fact? Frankly, it would not surprise me.

Quoting Blackearth (Reply 23):
The imminent demise of MEM as a hub has been circulating on this board for years it seems. It may well happen, who knows? But for the time being, MEM seems to fit NWA quite nicely, and I presume NWA has been happy with that arrangement of the past 20 years.

I agree. If anything, the NW hub at MEM has been pretty static for over 15 years in terms of # departures, with perhaps a reduction in seat capacity due to the proliferation of RJ's.

MEM is in many ways an ideal small hub for NW. Centrally located, excellent year round weather conditions, uncongested airspace, ample infrastructure. When DTW & MSP are experiencing winter delays, MEM will be on time.

MEM is also a dream to hub through. The small Y-shaped NW terminal ensures minimal walking distance.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
Indy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 8:46 am

Quoting Aa777jr (Reply 12):
The only time I flew outta MEM was on KL to AMS. The airport is great! I got some great fried chicken before my flight.

I think its funny that the one compliment I hear most often about MEM is the good food. Definately have to take a trip there once to check them out.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
I find that hard to believe. Though in 20 years, anything is possible.

I have heard this report from more than 1 source at Fedex and I have seen a news report about it as well in the past. IND will (unless something in the plans change) become the largest Fedex hub.

FedexExpress... didn't you say you have a copy of the Fedex expansion plans at IND?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
nosedive
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:01 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 31):
IND will (unless something in the plans change) become the largest Fedex hub.

3 words:

Got Ramp Space?

Yes, I'm talking about post-expansion to the FX IND ramp...

Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 22):
what about IND.

What about IND?

Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 22):
MEM is land locked and i have a document that has all the plans Fedex wants to do to IND. In 15 to 20 years IND will have a larger operation than MEM does when it comes to FEDEX.

MEM is landlocked to a point, but they will be getting the current ANG ramp area here in a few yrs, AFAIK...
 
Indy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:21 am

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 32):
3 words:

Got Ramp Space?

Yes, I'm talking about post-expansion to the FX IND ramp...

I'm not 100% sure I understand what you are getting at. The relocation of I-70 has opened up quite a bit more space for additional jets. Also the I-70 project allows for service on the other side of the interstate. Plus there will be that old terminal that may be torn down and used by Fedex. Space is one thing IND has plenty of.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
m404
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 9:45 am

cubsrule

Yes, then center hub on the "b" Y is as far finished as it can be until the ceilings are raised and concourse expanded on the fingers. That, as I was trying to say but kept dropping offline (5 times) in original reply, is in the works financially. The lineup of eateries seems to always be in flux. Name brands have had a tough time keeping quality standards as they have little to say about hiring practices due county licensing rules within the "public" airport. Quantity can also take a hit if one outlet perceives too much competition from another. More of that lowest common denominator thing the airlines seem to be up against.

As far as IND growing in FEDEX scheme of things, of course they will. It's just that no one has said anything about MEM FX shrinking because of it yet.
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
LambertMan
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Tue Aug 02, 2005 10:04 am

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 30):
Is this just rumour or fact? Frankly, it would not surprise me.

Fact, or at least thats what the Memphis paper said about 3 or 4 years ago.
 
membase
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:31 pm

RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:52 pm

Quoting LambertMan (Reply 35):
Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 30):
Is this just rumour or fact? Frankly, it would not surprise me.

Fact, or at least thats what the Memphis paper said about 3 or 4 years ago.

I remember that story, but it was saying that FX would probably add more flights at IND than at MEM.

There are no plans internally at FX to make IND a bigger operation than MEM. There is no economic reason to do this. The idea might have been floated to remind Memphis city government not to take FX for granted, to get the airport authority to close the deal on the TN Air Guard move, etc.
 
Indy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:00 pm

Quoting MEMbase (Reply 36):
There is no economic reason to do this.

Taxes. Our local government has indicated a willingness to give away the keys to the city darn near if it means jobs.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
membase
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:08 pm

Quoting JetSOUTHEAST (Thread starter):
What do all of you think is in store for MEM in the next decade?

My predictions for the next ten years...

(1) The NW hub will go away, probably due to merger within 12-18 months. However the subsequent influx of LCC's will cause a significant increase in O&D volume. It's no secret that Memphis O&D is hurt due to NW dominance and resulting airfares. With NW gone, the convoy of people driving to LIT and BNA to catch WN flights will end.

(2) MEM will lose its status as the #1 air cargo airport in the world to HKG in 2006. It will remain #1 in N. America for the foreseeable future.

(3) FX will continue to add flights, and no it will not be supplanted by IND as the #1 FX hub. FX footprint will increase with new A380 ramp (2008) and existing TANG ramp (2008-2010).

(4) MEM will become one of the best places in the US to see big aircraft with regular FX A380 flights, and 8 to 11 C5's based at the TANG.

(5) Look for a new 300' control tower to begin construction in 2006, replacing the current 185' tower.

Losing the NW hub will hurt, but like BNA losing AA in 1996, all will not be lost.
 
Indy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:19 pm

Quoting MEMbase (Reply 38):
(1) The NW hub will go away, probably due to merger within 12-18 months. However the subsequent influx of LCC's will cause a significant increase in O&D volume. It's no secret that Memphis O&D is hurt due to NW dominance and resulting airfares. With NW gone, the convoy of people driving to LIT and BNA to catch WN flights will end.

Unless they merge with Delta I don't know if the MEM hub will go anywhere. They do have one BIG thing in their favor. Location!
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
membase
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:42 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 39):
Unless they merge with Delta I don't know if the MEM hub will go anywhere. They do have one BIG thing in their favor. Location!

A merger with Continental or American would probably do it because of IAH and DFW, although Delta is the main candidate right now. I can't see a NW-UN merger making any sense...3 big hubs too close together...but if that happened for some reason MEM might actually benefit as UN has no southern hub.

Some people say that a NW bankruptcy would spell the end of MEM, but I'm not so sure. Unless they liquidated or defaulted on leases, what are they going to do with all those aircraft? Add frequencies in/out of DTW and MSP?
 
Indy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:46 pm

Here is something else to consider. If NW is in really bad financial shape can they afford the payments on the DTW terminal? Isn't that their baby? Aren't they paying for that? Or would they rather sell off some jets before the lose that building?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
membase
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sat Aug 13, 2005 5:02 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 41):
Here is something else to consider. If NW is in really bad financial shape can they afford the payments on the DTW terminal? Isn't that their baby? Aren't they paying for that? Or would they rather sell off some jets before the lose that building?

Good point. I read something to the effect that the new terminal was built with public revenue bonds, but NW is mostly responsible for repayment probably via user fees. From what little I know about revenue bonds, repayment becomes taxpayer obligation in the event other revenue sources dry up.

If NW can't meet debt service on that terminal, I doubt there's much DTW can do except wait for them to get back on solid footing. They can't throw NW out - what would that accomplish? I guess the Wayne Co. taxpayers would have to pay up.
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sat Aug 13, 2005 9:49 pm

In my opinion, if NW does not merge with anyone, then they will keep the MEM hub going. However, should they happen to merge with DL, CO or AA, then MEM will more than likely loose its hub status because of the respective larger hubs of ATL, IAH and DFW. I agree with the previous posts though that if this does happen, then you will probably see a similar scenerio to what happened when AA closed its hub at BNA, LCC's come in and actually increase the O&D numbers. Southwest or AirTran could expand significantly if this case should come to be.
 
membase
Posts: 52
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sun Aug 14, 2005 5:23 am

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 43):
In my opinion, if NW does not merge with anyone, then they will keep the MEM hub going. However, should they happen to merge with DL, CO or AA, then MEM will more than likely loose its hub status because of the respective larger hubs of ATL, IAH and DFW. I agree with the previous posts though that if this does happen, then you will probably see a similar scenerio to what happened when AA closed its hub at BNA, LCC's come in and actually increase the O&D numbers. Southwest or AirTran could expand significantly if this case should come to be.

Here's something to throw out there...let's say NW and DL merge, and the combined airline closes the MEM hub and consolidates its southern hub operations in ATL. What would that mean for AirTran's hub in ATL? Perhaps MEM could convince them to shift a sizable portion of their operations to MEM in order to escape the inevitable congestion that would ensue at ATL. I know, I know...AirTran wants ATL's much larger O&D, but perhaps it would settle for 70-80% of a smaller Memphis O&D market (vs the 13% it has at ATL), plus no delays and plenty of expansion room.

You have to wonder at what point AirTran would start to feel the squeeze in ATL. Even with the new runway being constructed at ATL, I've read congestion will still be a problem. Plus, with oil prices being what they are, airlines pay a penalty for all that time sitting idle on the taxiway.

I know the chances of MEM replacing NW are slim, but with all the congestion problems at the bigger airports it would seem ridiculous for a 90-gate airport with three parallel runways has to outweigh O&D at some stage.
 
Indy
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sun Aug 14, 2005 6:00 am

I say let the big boys drown themselves in their own traffic jams. After being subjected to monopoly pricing I'd bet the people of MEM would be thrilled for low fare wars between a couple of LCCs.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
blackearth
Posts: 77
Joined: Sat Apr 09, 2005 1:34 pm

RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sun Aug 14, 2005 6:05 am

Quoting MEMbase (Reply 44):
Here's something to throw out there...let's say NW and DL merge, and the combined airline closes the MEM hub and consolidates its southern hub operations in ATL. What would that mean for AirTran's hub in ATL? Perhaps MEM could convince them to shift a sizable portion of their operations to MEM in order to escape the inevitable congestion that would ensue at ATL. I know, I know...AirTran wants ATL's much larger O&D, but perhaps it would settle for 70-80% of a smaller Memphis O&D market (vs the 13% it has at ATL), plus no delays and plenty of expansion room.

You have to wonder at what point AirTran would start to feel the squeeze in ATL. Even with the new runway being constructed at ATL, I've read congestion will still be a problem. Plus, with oil prices being what they are, airlines pay a penalty for all that time sitting idle on the taxiway.

I know the chances of MEM replacing NW are slim, but with all the congestion problems at the bigger airports it would seem ridiculous for a 90-gate airport with three parallel runways has to outweigh O&D at some stage.

Well, that's certainly an interesting idea. Could happen--who knows in the airline business these days?--but like you say, doubtful.

How about this for an off-the-wall scenario--NW and Delta merge, they close ATL as a hub, and the merged airline uses MEM as its southern hub. lol  Wink
 
Cubsrule
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Sun Aug 14, 2005 8:33 am

Quoting MEMbase (Reply 44):
You have to wonder at what point AirTran would start to feel the squeeze in ATL. Even with the new runway being constructed at ATL, I've read congestion will still be a problem. Plus, with oil prices being what they are, airlines pay a penalty for all that time sitting idle on the taxiway.

If the south terminal ever gets built, FL could potentially have an airport within an airport-- bascially a concourse and runway all to themselves. That would be a great solution for them IMHO.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
membase
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:31 pm

RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Thu Aug 18, 2005 1:38 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 47):
How about this for an off-the-wall scenario--NW and Delta merge, they close ATL as a hub, and the merged airline uses MEM as its southern hub. lol

I think this makes about as much financial sense, and is therefore as unlikely, as FedEx shifting its main hub from MEM to IND.
 
BR715-A1-30
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RE: The Future Of Memphis International Airport

Thu Aug 18, 2005 2:39 am

Quoting LambertMan (Reply 5):
NW has let MEM city hall know that they will pack up if WN enters.

What? They can't handle competition? Do they know already that they will lose and be relegated to a business carrier... I find it terrible that NW would just give up like that, and not fight back. C'mon red tail.
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