quickmover
Posts: 2137
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Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:13 am

I was just checking out ATL-SEA, and it looks like a potential blockbuster route for FL. Delta is the only nonstop competition with 7 dailys, several 767s. Average 1 way fare $240. The route has 912 avg. daily o/d passengers, not to mention connecting potential in ATL to the east and Florida.

Maybe FL lacks the spare aircraft right now, after all, 2100+ miles would tie up a jet for most of the day doing 1 round trip. A red eye to ATL would be popular and I'd bet they could fill up 3 dailys without any problems.

Any thoughts?
 
luv2fly
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:20 am

Quoting Quickmover (Thread starter):
I was just checking out ATL-SEA, and it looks like a potential blockbuster route for FL. Delta is the only nonstop competition with 7 dailys, several 767s. Average 1 way fare $240. The route has 912 avg. daily o/d passengers, not to mention connecting potential in ATL to the east and Florida.

This time of year traffic is heavier than other times, for the simple reason, Alaska Cruises! Most cruises are a week in length, though for Alaska a slew of people do pre and post packages.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
7e72004
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:22 am

I think they should start IND-SEA service...the plane could leave from ATL...stop in IND...and continue to SEA  Big grin
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
quickmover
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:25 am

Well maybe over the winter months, the reverse happens and SEA residents would like to go to Florida?
 
LambertMan
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:28 am

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 2):
I think they should start IND-SEA service...the plane could leave from ATL...stop in IND...and continue to SEA

That is the worst idea I think I've ever heard. And I'm not kidding.

Seattle would be a great destination for FL no doubt. Most of these markets are inevitable if FL continues to expand, each expansion offers that many more connecting opportunities. Then we'll see the tweener cities like St. Louis, San Antonio, etc.
 
7e72004
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:31 am

LambertMan...you gave absolutely no reason why that is the worst idea...before you open up your mouth and start spewing sh*t...think and then give some reasons.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
Indy
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:41 am

For starters they would offer nonstop service from ATL to their customers. Doesn't mean they won't add it in IND if they ever flew to SEA. It would just make for a horribly long flight in my opinion for a stop.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
LambertMan
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:42 am

Because ATL will offer connecting opportunities to the east coast and florida. Why would you stop at IND then go to ATL then on to Florida. Nobody is going to make 2 connections, especially when one is unnecessary. You would basically lose all passengers who weren't going to either ATL or IND. By offering SEA-ATL, there is only one stop and then you are on your way. Plus it would offer DL some much needed competition on an extremely lucrative route, as mr. quickmover has pointed out.
 
7e72004
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:44 am

I was not talking about flights from SEA-IND-ATL-Florida...i mean...use one of the ATL flights already in place and add SEA to the IND part...and vice versa.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
MAH4546
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:50 am

Northwest flies a daily Indianapolis-Seattle flight. Yes, it is seasonal, but there is a reason it is seasonal.

That daily flight is enough for the market. IND is very fortunate for a city of its size in the Eastern US to have Seattle service.
a.
 
Indy
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 6:16 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 9):
Northwest flies a daily Indianapolis-Seattle flight. Yes, it is seasonal, but there is a reason it is seasonal.

Do you have any idea how much the service drops off in September?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
cloudy
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:24 pm

Sea-Tac is raising already its already outrageous costs in order to pay for its taj-mahal terminal. Southwest is trying to move to Boeing Field in order to get away from this. The fees at Sea-Tac make new low-cost service unprofitable - or at least less profitable than other opportunities. Airtran may come, but wait until facilities are available at Boeing Field. They would have to rent from Southwest, but Southwest does not fly to Atlanta and will have plenty of extra capacity available if the new terminal is built as planned. Southwest's website has the complete proposal.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:30 pm

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 11):
Sea-Tac is raising already its already outrageous costs in order to pay for its taj-mahal terminal. Southwest is trying to move to Boeing Field in order to get away from this. The fees at Sea-Tac make new low-cost service unprofitable - or at least less profitable than other opportunities. Airtran may come, but wait until facilities are available at Boeing Field. They would have to rent from Southwest, but Southwest does not fly to Atlanta and will have plenty of extra capacity available if the new terminal is built as planned. Southwest's website has the complete proposal.

Despite WN's public display, Indy, JetBlue, and Frontier all seem to be able to handle some level of service to SEA, and I think it's doubtful that AirTran would wait until 2009 (or later) to begin service to the SEA market.

-Dave
-Dave
 
SuperDash
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:30 pm

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 2):
I think they should start IND-SEA service...the plane could leave from ATL...stop in IND...and continue to SEA

I love it. Then Northwest can go nuts on AirTran once again by offering the same time flight as AirTran all year round (In case you mised the Ft Myers-Flint announcement).
 
wjcandee
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:34 pm

The Fort Meyers - Flint announcement can be easily handled with some kind of snotty Airtran ad that reads: "3 years old or 35 years old -- the choice is yours."
 
MAH4546
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:45 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 10):
Do you have any idea how much the service drops off in September?

A lot. Alaska cruises suddenly aren't fun when it starts getting cold.
a.
 
DeltaMIA
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:50 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 15):
A lot. Alaska cruises suddenly aren't fun when it starts getting cold.

When isn't it cold? I would have said when the sun goes down.
It's a big building with patients, but that's not important right now.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:54 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 15):
A lot. Alaska cruises suddenly aren't fun when it starts getting cold.

As a lifelong Seattle area resident, and having spent a number of years in a tourism related company, I can say from my experience May-September is definately the popular time, then it drops pretty heavily. We have a very strong business market in Seattle, but are the ties to IND really that strong for a year round service?

I guess if WN can operate from SEA n/s to BNA, MCI, ABQ, etc, why not?

-Dave
-Dave
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:58 pm

Quoting DeltaMIA (Reply 16):
When isn't it cold? I would have said when the sun goes down.

Well, it's been in the 80's/90's the past few weeks, though it does cool off after midnight. Maybe they could do IND-SEA July 25th-Aug 15th  Smile.

-Dave
-Dave
 
DeltaMIA
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 2:59 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 18):
Well, it's been in the 80's/90's the past few weeks

In Alaska?
It's a big building with patients, but that's not important right now.
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 5449
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 3:10 pm

Quoting DeltaMIA (Reply 19):
In Alaska?

My bad. Thought we were referring to SEA.

-Dave
-Dave
 
717-200
Posts: 564
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 5:18 pm

Before I left FL about a month ago to move up to SEA, I asked a certain
member of the FL top brass at one of those "town hall" meetings in ATL
several months back about the prospectsof FL starting service to SEA.
His remarks were that SEA is too much of a "seasonal market"and you
"only make money there in the summer and the rest of the year you get
killed there the rest of the year." At first I thought well what an ignoramus
he was but with WN's proposals to move to BFI and build a new terminal
there because of SEA's rising and rising costs I can see why AirTran may
be hesitant to start SEA service now. Although I am certain if FL was
sucessful in getting the TZ gates and certain assets instead of WN, FL
would already be serving the Emerald City and Tacoma. Oh well!
72S 733 734 735 73G 738 742 752 763 E190 M82 M83
 
ssides
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Fri Aug 05, 2005 11:58 pm

I'd love to see AirTran expand its DFW operation and launch DFW-SEA, but that market will be tough once AS enters this fall.
"Lose" is not spelled with two o's!!!!
 
User avatar
LN-MOW
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sat Aug 06, 2005 2:38 am

Quote:
We have a very strong business market in Seattle, but are the ties to IND really that strong for a year round service?

Not even ATA was crazy enough to try that .. and that says something!

FL has SEA on its scope .. the last I heard was that they are looking at 2006 ...
- I am LN-MOW, and I approve this message.
 
747luvr
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sat Aug 06, 2005 4:04 am

There is ALMOST daily flights on Alaska Airlines nonstop from MCO-SEA (and I assume on to ANC). flown primarily by 738's or 739's I believe....
 
BCAInfoSys
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sat Aug 06, 2005 4:24 am

Quoting 747LUVR (Reply 24):
There is ALMOST daily flights on Alaska Airlines nonstop from MCO-SEA (and I assume on to ANC). flown primarily by 738's or 739's I believe....

Yes, used to be 2x daily with 739s, though AS recently dropped it off to 1x daily.

Steve
Militant Agnostic - I don't know and you don't either.
 
SeaTran
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sat Aug 06, 2005 12:16 pm

AirTran should go to Seattle. No doubt about it.

Seattle is not really a seasonal market. I'm afraid that people who claim Seattle is seasonal are unfamiliar with the Northwest. Demand simply peaks in the summertime. The Seattle area is home to some of the largest global corporations in America: Microsoft, Amazon, Starbucks, Boeing (yeah, I know, headquarters moved to Chicago, but it IS a Seattle company), Costco, Weyerhauser, and T-Mobile (US). Seattle is also home to many important smaller coroporations (RealNetworks, Vulcan Ventures, Fred Hutchison, Safeco, F5Networks, the UW Medical Complex, and Washington Mutual come to mind off the top of my head). Furthermore, Seattle is also a center of international trade. It is the closest shipping point in the continental US to Asia and is the nation's largest per capita exporter. Additonally, the Puget Sound area is host to at least six major military installations: Ft Lewis, McChord AFB, Naval Station Everett, Naval Shipyard Bremerton, Naval Submarine Base Bangor, and Naval Air Station Whidbey Island. All of the above mentioned entities generate year-round business and thus year-round travel demand.

As previous posters have also referenced, during the summertime Seattle is boosted by Alaska cruises and three national parks: Mt Rainier, Olympic, and North Cascades. Seattle is one of the premier destinations in the US.

AirTran has proven it's ability to go head-to-head with Delta. AirTran could easily beat Delta on the SEA-ATL route. Delta currently has six daily flights (up from five per day prior to the summer) and they are very frequently full even during the off-season. AirTran could also do SEA-MSP and beat out Northwest, SEA-DFW and beat out American and Alaska, SEA-MDW and beat out SWA, and SEA-EWR and beat out Continental and Alaska, as well as the seemingly obligatory SEA-MCO (don't know if the range on the -700 could make that one). I'm sure there are other routes that could benefit from AirTran's service. Those mentioned, to me, are simply the most obvious.

True, SEA's fees are relatively high but the recent ballyhoo over them by SWA is mostly posturing. It appears that SWA is losing the initial rounds of the battle to move to Boeing Field anyway ( http://www.seattlechamber.com/pls/st...ernews_portlet.read_pdf?v_id=3792, http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...ews/2002421712_southwest05m.html). SWA has threatened to abandon Seattle completely if they are not able to leave SEA. Good. Let them. AirTran can expand their presence if they actually do leave. So much the better.

3.6 million people live in the Puget Sound area. It is also the gateway to the two other major Northwest cities (Vancouver BC and Portland). If you ask people in the Northwest right now what AirTran is, they will look at you quizzically, and if they have any idea at all, might ask "aren't they in bankruptcy?" No, that's ATA. AirTran needs to establish a presence in the Northwest.

[Edited 2005-08-06 05:25:38]

[Edited 2005-08-06 05:27:11]
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 5449
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sat Aug 06, 2005 2:38 pm

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 26):
AirTran has proven it's ability to go head-to-head with Delta.

Perhaps...

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 26):
AirTran could easily beat Delta on the SEA-ATL route.

Now you're reaching...

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 26):
AirTran could also do SEA-MSP and beat out Northwest,

Now you're insane.  Smile

-Dave
-Dave
 
rwsea
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sat Aug 06, 2005 2:45 pm

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 26):
AirTran has proven it's ability to go head-to-head with Delta. AirTran could easily beat Delta on the SEA-ATL route. Delta currently has six daily flights (up from five per day prior to the summer) and they are very frequently full even during the off-season. AirTran could also do SEA-MSP and beat out Northwest, SEA-DFW and beat out American and Alaska, SEA-MDW and beat out SWA, and SEA-EWR and beat out Continental and Alaska, as well as the seemingly obligatory SEA-MCO (don't know if the range on the -700 could make that one). I'm sure there are other routes that could benefit from AirTran's service. Those mentioned, to me, are simply the most obvious.

I wouldn't agree with much of this ... AS has a HUGE amount of loyalty in the SEA area, and people aren't going to suddenly switch to an unknown airline for all of their transcon flights. UA and NW also have very large FF bases in SEA.

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 26):
SWA has threatened to abandon Seattle completely if they are not able to leave SEA. Good. Let them. AirTran can expand their presence if they actually do leave. So much the better.

Not true. WN has claimed that if they can't move, they simply won't add any more flights from SEA (fine by me!). I'd love to see WN leave SEA - I can't stand that airline.

Overall, I think SEA has a decent amount of low fare service and most of the major routes have one or more competitors (SFO, LAX, ORD, DFW, JFK, EWR) come to mind. The Southwest-effect hasn't been too strong in SEA and I doubt Airtran would change things much.

Btw, welcome to the forum SeaTran.
 
OttoPylit
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 1:36 am

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 26):
AirTran has proven it's ability to go head-to-head with Delta. AirTran could easily beat Delta on the SEA-ATL route. Delta currently has six daily flights (up from five per day prior to the summer) and they are very frequently full even during the off-season. AirTran could also do SEA-MSP and beat out Northwest, SEA-DFW and beat out American and Alaska, SEA-MDW and beat out SWA, and SEA-EWR and beat out Continental and Alaska, as well as the seemingly obligatory SEA-MCO (don't know if the range on the -700 could make that one). I'm sure there are other routes that could benefit from AirTran's service. Those mentioned, to me, are simply the most obvious

(In my best Dr. Evil confused voice) Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.  Yeah sure

So tell me, with Delta flying all 767's to ATL, as well as flights to SLC, CVG, and JFK, please explain to me just HOW is FL going to "beat" Delta on these routes? When did FL get the bigger planes? And when did FL start flying into SLC, CVG, and JFK? The simple answer is, they didn't. Useless and baseless speculation at its best.

In case you have never noticed, AA and NW are VERY strict when defending their turf. FL is already going to be slapped when they enter DTW. You think AA would bite a chunk out of FL's ass if they started flying SEA-DFW? I think they would. Considering the fact that if FL did ever start flying to any cities you mentioned, there are no connection opportunities, except to the other carriers, and very little O&D, I hereby nominate you to Airtran management skill status. Congratulations.


Otto
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.
 
canoecarrier
Posts: 2569
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 1:48 am

You think AA would bite a chunk out of FL's ass if they started flying SEA-DFW?
That flight just wouldn't happen. AA did seasonally increase service to JFK when B6 started flying, however a seasonal FL flight to SEA from ATL would not attract a serious number of DL, AA or NW travelers. If anything it would pull some of the 8% carried by WN now out of SEA.

Seasonal service by a domestic airline that isn't currently serving SEA? When was the last time that worked out, I can't remember any recently, probably never.

[Edited 2005-08-06 18:58:00]
The beatings will continue until morale improves
 
baw716
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 2:59 am

For sure Port of Seattle (POS) is charging airlines a lot for the new terminal, which is a lot considering the amount of space that is has, which is not much more than the original one. It is just layed out better.

As for WN move to BFI, forget it. King County commissioners just turned it down. The infrastructure changes required at BFI cannot support it and Boeing needs the airport worse than Southwest does and here, Boeing rules.

Now up at Paine, they are doing feasibility studies of starting passenger operationg up there, but they would have to do substantial upgrades of the terminal facilities plus add an additional parallel runway for jet operations for that to function correctly AND facilitate Boeing's needs. In other words, not in the next 10 years.

WN has to buck up here in Seattle or get out. They could move to Tacoma, there is space there and they could operate there with the 737s they have. Granted, it would be short field ops, but so what else is new? It would give Tacoma a leg up on Seattle and give Puget Sounders an alternative airport to Sea-Tac. The only problem: The Narrows Bridge. The traffic on hwy 16 across the bridge is already the pits. Put a WN operation at Tacoma and just wait, it will be 100 times worse.

WN, there is no way to win, sorry.

baw716
David L. Lamb, fmr Area Mgr Alitalia SFO 1998-2002, fmr Regional Analyst SFO-UAL 1992-1998
 
7e72004
Posts: 3440
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2004 12:15 am

RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 4:18 am

The way i see it, and i respect other's opinions on this, is that if Southwest thinks the price is to high at SEA, then let them leave the seattle area completely! Did they not support the new terminal in the first place at SEA?? They should have known that costs could go up in the future and now they are turning the other way...let them leave SEA...i also think they should leave IND...we are building a new terminal and costs will probably go up as well...i don't think WN would be missed in SEA or IND!  Smile
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 5449
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 4:32 am

When did this become a WN vs SEA thread??

-Dave
-Dave
 
7e72004
Posts: 3440
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 4:41 am

Dude...if you read back a little bit you will see where it became a WN vs. SEA thread
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
PlanesNTrains
Posts: 5449
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:19 pm

RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 5:32 am

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 34):
Dude...if you read back a little bit you will see where it became a WN vs. SEA thread

Dude, if you read the thread title, you'll see that it doesn't belong here. But you should know that, as you post in every WN thread that comes up.

-Dave
-Dave
 
SeaTran
Posts: 60
Joined: Sat Aug 06, 2005 11:15 am

RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 6:35 am

Quoting OttoPylit (Reply 29):
I wouldn't agree with much of this ... AS has a HUGE amount of loyalty in the SEA area, and people aren't going to suddenly switch to an unknown airline for all of their transcon flights. UA and NW also have very large FF bases in SEA.

Yes, Alaska does have loyalty in the Seattle area; but not that much. Not enough to pay more than a couple of additional bucks for a ticket. Look at Alaska's route to DEN and compare with Frontier. Frontier is virtually always full while Alaska often has empty seats.

Quoting Canoecarrier (Reply 30):
So tell me, with Delta flying all 767's to ATL, as well as flights to SLC, CVG, and JFK, please explain to me just HOW is FL going to "beat" Delta on these routes? When did FL get the bigger planes? And when did FL start flying into SLC, CVG, and JFK? The simple answer is, they didn't. Useless and baseless speculation at its best.

I didn't suggest that AirTran establish routes between SEA and SLC, CVG, or JFK. However, against Delta, on a SEA-ATL route, I'm quite convinced that AirTran could both stimulate additional demand for that city pair and snag market share from Delta. Why? Because AirTran has the second lowest non-fuel costs in the domestic industry (JB is first). Additionally, AirTran also has fuel hedges in place which only adds to their advantage over Delta. AirTran, quite simply, can afford to charge less for tickets than can Delta and low prices are priority one for the traveling public these days. Delta may match or even beat AirTran's prices on some of their fares in an attempt to drive them out but they won't be able to do so profitably. Aviation Week and Space Technology christened the term "the AirTran effect" and it has proven consistently effective against Delta in particular.

Quoting Canoecarrier (Reply 30):
In case you have never noticed, AA and NW are VERY strict when defending their turf. FL is already going to be slapped when they enter DTW. You think AA would bite a chunk out of FL's ass if they started flying SEA-DFW? I think they would. Considering the fact that if FL did ever start flying to any cities you mentioned, there are no connection opportunities, except to the other carriers, and very little O&D, I hereby nominate you to Airtran management skill status. Congratulations.

No need to get testy, my friend! I don't know that AirTran is going to get slapped in DTW; not by a NW that is teetering on the verge of multiple strikes. NW has bigger problems to fend off than an additional LCC operating at DTW. Both NW and AA are vulnerable to the same threats posed by AirTran; low costs. AirTran operates at lower cost than these airlines though admittedly, AA is headed in the right direction.

Quoting Baw716 (Reply 31):
Seasonal service by a domestic airline that isn't currently serving SEA? When was the last time that worked out, I can't remember any recently, probably never.

Who said anything about seasonal service? Seattle, as I explained in my original post, is not a seasonal market. It is a market where leisure demand peaks in the summer but for which there is a year-round travel market. See above.

As to the SWA issue at SEA, the fight has only just begun and it appears that SWA has lost the initial round. However, SWA still has a lot of political capital to spend. I'd love to see them driven out of Seattle altogether or have their bluff called and have to stay at SEA. They very well could end up getting what they want at BFI.

Regarding SWA and AirTran: based on what I have heard from several SWA pilots who have recently attended SWA's indoc courses, SWA considers AirTran it's primary threat. As stated above, AirTran's non-fuel costs are lower and headed down. SWA's absolute costs are currently lower thanks to an extraordinarily prescient fuel hedge buy several years ago. However, those fuel hedges run out over the next couple of years at which point SWA will be at a cost disadvantage esp in the area of labor.
 
dutchjet
Posts: 7714
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 7:09 am

Additional service from ATL to the West Coast was certainly part of AirTran's plans when they selected the 73G, so a route to SEA is something that AirTran must be looking and will consider in the near term future.

SEA is a business market with year round demand. Of course, additional lift is needed during the summer months to move all of the Alaska bound cruise pax to and from SEA (and many pax taking cruises out of the Port of Vancouver also use SEA and go by land to/from Vancouver due to easier connections and lower fares) - not to mention from a touristical point of view, Seatlle is more pleasant to visit during the Summer than the Winter. And, there is reasonable demand out of SEA to the warmer Southeast US for pax looking for sun......but tourism is an extra. ATL-SEA can make it on business traffic alone, and AirTran will launch it when the timing is right for them.

While we have heard that ground costs at SEA seem to be higher than they should be, I dont think that would discourage AirTran, we are only talking about a limited number of flights per day to connect SEA to their ATL hub.
 
User avatar
LN-MOW
Posts: 1684
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2000 12:24 am

RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 7:17 am

airTran is worried about the seasonal factor, but DL certainly needs some competition on SEA-ATL. In the two months Vanguard flew to SEA, we averaged about 30 connectors to ATL per flight. ATL was by FAR our biggest connection city.
Although this doesn't serve as much of a market survey, it shows IMHO that there is a large undeveloped market here, especially in the lower end of the fare scale. And in addition airTran also have destinations beyond ATL ..
- I am LN-MOW, and I approve this message.
 
ASFlyer
Posts: 1259
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 1:25 pm

RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 7:52 am

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 36):
Yes, Alaska does have loyalty in the Seattle area; but not that much. Not enough to pay more than a couple of additional bucks for a ticket. Look at Alaska's route to DEN and compare with Frontier. Frontier is virtually always full while Alaska often has empty seats

That would explain why Frontier is losing money and Alaska is making money. Those Frontier planes are so full they are losing money while Alaska's 1/2 full planes are making money. How does that happen?

Alaska has a HUGE following in SEA and AirTran (and I like Airtran, I really do) would face formidable competition on ANY route it went head to head with Alaska on. AirTran would probably do fine in this market but not at the expense of Alaska and they certainly wouldn't kick Alaska's butt in any market they competed with them on from SEA. Just like Alaska would probably not clean up in the ATL-MCO market if they were to compete against AirTran.
 
SeaTran
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 8:31 am

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 39):
That would explain why Frontier is losing money and Alaska is making money. Those Frontier planes are so full they are losing money while Alaska's 1/2 full planes are making money. How does that happen?

Alaska has a HUGE following in SEA and AirTran (and I like Airtran, I really do) would face formidable competition on ANY route it went head to head with Alaska on. AirTran would probably do fine in this market but not at the expense of Alaska and they certainly wouldn't kick Alaska's butt in any market they competed with them on from SEA. Just like Alaska would probably not clean up in the ATL-MCO market if they were to compete against AirTran.

In citing the example of Frontier's full flights, I was simply responding to a point that was made asserting Northwest consumers are fervently devoted to Alaska Airlines. I was not trying to explain Frontier's business model or their profitability. If Northwesterners were truly loyal to Alaska Airlines, they would opt to fly Alaska over Frontier. That has not been the case. Take, for example, the 6 am (approximately) flights from SEA-DEN each day. Frontier's flight is almost always full while Alaska's is not. I'm afraid devotion to Alaska Airlines in this market is worth maybe, at best, a couple of bucks per ticket. If the loyalty to Alaska were there, the Alaska flight would usually be full and the Frontier flight not so much.

I also think that AirTran could compete very well, esp right now, against Alaska: three reasons. 1) LABOR! Have you talked to an Alaska employee lately? They are not terribly happy. Alaska currently has significant labor problems. Most of the Alaska pilots I have talked to have sworn up and down they will NOT lean forward any time soon for the company. They will NOT go the extra mile. To many of them, a strike in two years is almost a foregone conclusion. The ramp worker's situation is also a mess. They are #20 out of 20 ranked airlines in terms of on-time performance. How soon will these problems be resolved? Bill Ayer acknowledged the severity of Alaska's labor problems in a July statement, saying they "will impact the long-term reputation of Alaska Airlines" if not corrected soon. 2) Distraction. Alaska Airlines is distracted by SWA's attempts to move to BFI. Alaska sees SWA as a much bigger threat than AirTran beginning competing service on some of it's secondary routes (SEA-DEN, SEA-EWR, SEA-DFW). 3) Costs. Alaska's cost are higher than AirTran's. Alaska IS a well-hedged airline and that helps, but their costs are still higher than AirTran's.

Honestly, what might work out wonderfully for both airlines would be a code-share situation (but not until Alaska settles it's operational issues). Alaska and AirTran have complementary route structures and similar fleet types. In fact, cooperation of this type might be necessary in the future to battle the gathering menace posed by SWA. Rumors of some sort of a deal involving Alaska and AirTran have been percolating for at least the last several months.
 
Tornado82
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 8:39 am

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 5):
LambertMan...you gave absolutely no reason why that is the worst idea...before you open up your mouth and start spewing sh*t...think and then give some reasons.

No, it is the worst idea. Maybe before you open up your mouth and start spewing insults at respected members you should realize how bad ideas are. You already have NW service there seasonally... and what's up with you IND cheerleaders thinking you need service across the whole planet anyways? That metro area is NOT as big as you think it is, period. You're probably, if anything, already overserved... and there was a thread about this just a few days ago.

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 14):
The Fort Meyers - Flint announcement can be easily handled with some kind of snotty Airtran ad that reads: "3 years old or 35 years old -- the choice is yours."

And that's a damn good ad. Who wants to fly those noisy rattlebucket DC-9s that isn't a plane geek when you can fly a relatively brand new 717, with (I think so?) IFE? I'd take a 3hr RJ run over one of those DC-9's even... they're NOT in good shape, regardless of what people think. You can't even turn your iPod up loud enough to drown out the noise of those POS's if you are unfortunate enough to get in the back half of the bird, and the last time I was on one in the back I got off with a splitting headache because of the noise. I was personally happy when here at ABE we got downgraded from a DC-9 to a CRJ on one of our frequencies. NW starting FNT-RSW was one of the most assinine things I've seen in some time, especially when they knew the fares would be a bloodbath. Let Airtran have that market, because NW will never
lose DTW... unless they go belly up, and at the rate they're pissing away resources going after these LCC "turf battles" they can probably make a run on going belly up. It's not smart to enter losing enterprises when you're already losing money!!! Now I'm sure I'll get flamed for that, but face the music, they're NOT comfortable planes if you have to fly in them for long distances... and NW is losing money at a pretty alarming pace to be joining in a pissing match with FL (who makes money and can afford to slash fares on one route to sweeten the pot for a few months).

Quoting DeltaMIA (Reply 16):

When isn't it cold? I would have said when the sun goes down.

Parts of Alaska, esp. the ANC area, in the summer, is as warm as northern New England areas, etc. It sure beats the mid 90's heat and 100+ heat index's we've had on the east coast of the mainland this summer. It's pleasantly mild up there.

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 34):
Dude...if you read back a little bit you will see where it became a WN vs. SEA thread

"Dude... " if you calm down a little bit before you post maybe people would respect you here. You attacked 2 users in one thread, and you were in the wrong both times!
 
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LN-MOW
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 8:56 am

Quote:
Honestly, what might work out wonderfully for both airlines would be a code-share situation

Emmmm .... Alaska already codeshares with DL ... don't think DL would jump for joy if AS and airTran started codesharing.
- I am LN-MOW, and I approve this message.
 
7e72004
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 9:14 am

Tornado82...living in Indianapolis during the past several years, i know a little more about the region and commercial air needs a little more than you. If you care to challenge what i know, go ahead, but i guarantee you, you will lose. As stated before by another post, SEA IS NOT seasonal and there is very well the demand from IND to SEA. YOu also need to get your facts straight and get your head out of your a$$ before you start going after me.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
SeaTran
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 9:23 am

Quoting LN-MOW (Reply 42):
Emmmm .... Alaska already codeshares with DL ... don't think DL would jump for joy if AS and airTran started codesharing.

No, I don't think Delta would jump for joy. I think Delta would likely be a trifle angry. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure no one would ask Delta's permission if AirTran and Alaska decided to do it. I have no idea how long Alaska and Delta are legally committed to their current codeshare agreement so that might bar Alaska from extricating itself from the Delta codeshare at the moment. Doing so, however, might be best for both Alaska and AirTran. Delta is bleeding money right now and it might just be time for Alaska to abandon the Delta ship. An Alaska/AirTran codeshare could be a precursor to larger cooperation in the future.
 
7e72004
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 9:28 am

An Alaska and AirTran codeshare would be a very good idea in my opinion and i have to agree with SeaTran. It would be way to early to tell if a merger would be in the future with both of those airlines but considering they don't have any overlapping routes (from what i could see), that would create a true national low cost carrier.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
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mariner
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 9:49 am

Quoting ASFlyer (Reply 39):
That would explain why Frontier is losing money and Alaska is making money. Those Frontier planes are so full they are losing money while Alaska's 1/2 full planes are making money. How does that happen?

That's quite easy. Frontier has been going through an expensive fleet transtion - they lost money this last quarter only because of special charges related to that.

http://www.frontierairlines.com/news...cle=/general/2005/pr_07282005.news

as in: today reported a net loss of $2.7 million, or $.08 per diluted common share,

and: These items, net of income taxes, increased the Company’s net loss by $0.08 per share


Alaska makes a lot of money in two quarters of the year - every year, the summer months, the high season in Alaska. The other two quarters, it loses money:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ALK

Earnings History Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05
EPS Est 1.55 - 0.65 -1.22 0.75
EPS Actual 2.08 -0.53 -1.54 0.74
Difference 0.53 0.12 -0.32 -0.01
Surprise % 34.2% 18.5% -26.2% -1.3%

Analysts are hoping for a profit of over $2 in the present quarter, Q3, followed by a tiny profit (37c) in the last quarter, Q4. But if so, it will be the first time AS has made a profit in Q4 in quite a while.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 9:55 am

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 36):
Frontier is virtually always full while Alaska often has empty seats.

That may very well be true. Alaska is feeding in a direction that offers less overall city-pairs of size than does Frontier.

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 36):
I'm quite convinced that AirTran could both stimulate additional demand for that city pair and snag market share from Delta.

That is a reasonable assessment. But it is a far cry from "beating" Delta.

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 36):
Why? Because AirTran has the second lowest non-fuel costs in the domestic industry (JB is first).

That really won't matter when Delta is willing to price-match. Last year, as an overly simple and pointless example, my wife and I flew SEA-FLL roundtrip on DL for $178 before taxes. Great 767 flights, too. I almost felt guilty  Smile.

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 40):
If Northwesterners were truly loyal to Alaska Airlines, they would opt to fly Alaska over Frontier.

Well, if you are referring to folks flying from SEA and PDX to DEN, then maybe they do. If you are referring to people flying on the flights between the two cities, that really is an invalid comparison without knowing where they are originating and terminating.

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 40):
Take, for example, the 6 am (approximately) flights from SEA-DEN each day. Frontier's flight is almost always full while Alaska's is not.

Hmmm. SEA-DEN at 6am. On Alaska, this would be only people going to Denver. On Frontier, this would be people going to Denver, or anywhere east of Denver. I would say Alaska is doing good if they are showing a decent load factor. Again, this means nothing of profit or loss.

Quoting SeaTran (Reply 40):
Alaska Airlines is distracted by SWA's attempts to move to BFI. Alaska sees SWA as a much bigger threat than AirTran beginning competing service on some of it's secondary routes (SEA-DEN, SEA-EWR, SEA-DFW). 3)

I think they can walk and chew gum at the same time. If they are "distracted" by WN's flashy presentation about moving to BFI, to the point that they are taking their eye off of the ball, then they deserve to sink.

I appreciate your thoughts, and I'm no expert. But I think it's safe to say that Airtran could do fine in Seattle, but would not likely dominate, and would have a hard time hurting Alaska in any meaningful way on routes that they directly compete on out of Seattle.

Just my two cents.

-Dave
-Dave
 
N200WN
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Sun Aug 07, 2005 2:00 pm

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 43):
Tornado82...living in Indianapolis during the past several years, i know a little more about the region and commercial air needs a little more than you. If you care to challenge what i know, go ahead, but i guarantee you, you will lose. As stated before by another post, SEA IS NOT seasonal and there is very well the demand from IND to SEA

I don't think one has to actually live in the area to understand the nature of the market. SEA is not a seasonal destination, but from IND it certainly is. The demand may be there, but not enough to warrant a daily supply of seats on a year round basis and at fare levels to make it profitable. If you can prove otherwise, don't tell us...instead send your stats/research/analysis to NW and AS and see if they agree.
 
Indy
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RE: Airtran To Seattle?

Mon Aug 08, 2005 2:50 am

Quoting N200WN (Reply 48):
If you can prove otherwise, don't tell us...instead send your stats/research/analysis to NW and AS and see if they agree.

That is a bit rude don't you think? Or did I just miss the point of what you were trying to say?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air

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