incitatus
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What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 11:37 am

The incident in Toronto is a reminder to give strong preference to fly on the lower deck in the A380.
It also calls into question how realistic it is to run evacuation drills on aircraft standing inside a hangar on level ground.
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ikramerica
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:04 pm

What if the Hindenburg had been an A380? What if AF358 had been an ATR72?
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Indy
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:07 pm

What if AF358 had been a Pinto. Ok maybe a bad example  Smile
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Northwest717
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:45 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
The incident in Toronto is a reminder to give strong preference to fly on the lower deck in the A380.

But what if it lands too hard? You might be pancaked!!!!  alert 

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Indy
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:47 pm

It probably would have sunk the landing gear in the ground and wouldn't have made it as far. Just a guess.
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FriendlySkies
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 12:59 pm

Nothing different. The A340 wasn't even full.  Wink
 
SWALoveField
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:06 pm

What if the lower deck of this hypothetical A380 was engulfed in flames?

As pointed out in other threads. Every accident is different. Learning from each accident is crucial.

Let's just hope, through all of the Olympian efforts in planning the A380 with regard to safety they are never tested.

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MidnightMike
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:07 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
The incident in Toronto is a reminder to give strong preference to fly on the lower deck in the A380.
It also calls into question how realistic it is to run evacuation drills on aircraft standing inside a hangar on level ground.

The difference is that it would have been a bigger plane. The A380 would have had more door/slides/exits and additional Flight Attendants to get the passengers out in a timely matter.
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dragon-wings
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:16 pm

Did they do the evacuation tests on the A380 yet to see how fast it would take for people to get out? What were the results (If they did the test yet)? Do you think the people would of got out in the same amount of time as they did on AF358?
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PA110
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:17 pm

Quoting MidnightMike (Reply 7):
The difference is that it would have been a bigger plane. The A380 would have had more door/slides/exits and additional Flight Attendants to get the passengers out in a timely matter.

True, but I think this is going to play into the back of the minds of some travelers worried about being crammed into an aircraft with so many passengers. Of course the A380 is designed to have adequate evacuation capabilities, but there is always the unexpected freak factor - do you really want to be in an evacuation with so many passengers all trying to get out?

Unlike most A.net uber-geeks, I have no desire to fly an A380. Having just observed checkin at SFO for peak season weekend departures to Europe, the lines at check-in were horrendous - and that's SFO where there is more than adequate space between banks of checkin desks. Think about the Bradley terminal at LAX, where the checkin banks are way too close together. There isn't sufficient space now. Can you imagine the chaos checking in several A380 flights with queues of several different airlines running into each other? What about the departure gates? There are barely enough seats for existing 747 flights. Don't even get me started with baggage claim. Picture Heathrow T3 baggage hall with EK, SQ and VS A380's all landing roughly at the same time. It's not going to be a pretty sight - and I'm quite content to stay as far away from the madness as possible. Give me the smaller A330, 340 or 350 anytime.
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MidnightMike
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:23 pm

Quoting Dragon-wings (Reply 8):
Did they do the evacuation tests on the A380 yet to see how fast it would take for people to get out?

No, not yet....

Quoting Dragon-wings (Reply 8):


Do you think the people would of got out in the same amount of time as they did on AF358?

If & when the test is conducted, they have the same amount of time to get out of the aircraft, so, yes, if not, then the A380 will not be certified.
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MidnightMike
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:30 pm

Quoting PA110 (Reply 9):
True, but I think this is going to play into the back of the minds of some travelers worried about being crammed into an aircraft with so many passengers. Of course the A380 is designed to have adequate evacuation capabilities, but there is always the unexpected freak factor - do you really want to be in an evacuation with so many passengers all trying to get out?

Travellers? I would say that a very large amount of passengers do not care, nor do they know what type of aircraft they are travelling on.

There is always the freak factor with any type of airplane, that is why there are double the amount of doors/windows than is required.

The various authorities around the world, CAA,FAA, CASA, JCAB, DCGAC, etc. When ready, will certify that the A380 is safe to fly, if it is not safe, then it won't.
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astuteman
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:37 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 4):
It probably would have sunk the landing gear in the ground and wouldn't have made it as far. Just a guess.

Except that the A380 has a lower loading per gear, because it has so many wheels....... Now a 777-300ER???? Might be more likely then....
 
backfire
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 4:51 pm

What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?


Well, with fewer than 300 passengers, the load factor would have been lower.  Smile
 
andrewuber
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 5:07 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 2):
What if AF358 had been a Pinto. Ok maybe a bad example

It kindof was!  flamed   flamed   flamed 
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MidnightMike
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 5:08 pm

Quoting Backfire (Reply 13):
Well, with fewer than 300 passengers, the load factor would have been lower.

That's funny!!!  Smile
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FlySSC
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 7:29 pm

FriendlySkies Reply # 5

Nothing different, The A340 wasn't even full.


uhhh ?

F-GLZQ Cabin version : 30J / 261 Y = 291
PAX on Board including babies = 297

If that was not full, what do you call a "full flight" ?!?!?
 
CV747
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 8:08 pm

Quoting Dragon-wings (Reply 8):
Do you think the people would of got out in the same amount of time as they did on AF358?

It does not matter what size the aircraft is. The rules are clear for ANY size of commercial aircraft. It must be able to evacuate all passengers in less then 90 secconds or the thing will not be certified.

BUT, this is the theory. These tests are done in normal conditions. What if there is fire, smoke, panic, children crying, people looking for their stuff! as one could clearly see on the people leaving the AF358.

Many years ago a 737-200 caught fire during taxing in the UK and a lot of people died because they did not get out. (Of course there was a chain of events...)
During investigation the CAA tried the evacuation tests which worked fine. So the question arose, what did go wrong? The CAA did the test again with volonteers who were not briefed and should represent the normal flying public. They told them that the first to get out would get a fair amount of money, the next ones would get less and the last would get nothing. The results were catastrophic. The plane was not evacuated in 90 seconds. People got walked over, and it was ruled by the law of the jungle. This is exactly what happens if there is panic.

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

So that Question is not stupid at all. In theory nothing happens except there is much more rubish and more people running around.
In reality.... who knows!  Wink
 
Aither
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 8:13 pm

In Japan they operate 747s with 500+ pax.

A380s are configured with 525 pax on average, has 2 decks, and more exits.
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FlySSC
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 8:18 pm

CV747 Reply#17

It must be able to evacuate all passengers in less than 90 seconds or the thing will not be certified


Actually, the rule is " evacuate All passengers in less than 90 second with only half of the doors and exits available ".

That's what happened on AF358. The A340 has 4 pairs of doors.
ALL the PAX were evacuated through only 4 doors. The 4 others could not be opened or were not opened deliberately by the Crew because of the fire outside.
 
cornish
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 8:26 pm

What if the aircraft had been a 747. Would you have avoided flying upstairs if that was the case?? Traded business class for economy???

I doubt it.

If you're afraid of flying something, don't fly it....
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CV747
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 8:30 pm

Quoting FlySSC (Reply 19):
Actually, the rule is " evacuate All passengers in less than 90 second with only half of the doors and exits available ".

Yes, you are absolutelly right. I forgot to mentin that. I did my cabin evacuation training on a 742 many years ago. And one of the simulated situations was a collapsed nose gear. ...don't try to use the slide of R/L 5 in that case... that will hurt!  Big grin
 
incitatus
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Tue Aug 09, 2005 11:19 pm

Asking this question is relevant.

The A380 is a new aircraft with a full size upper deck. The evacuation trials are performed under controlled circumstances. What would it be like if the evacuation had to be performed in a ditch, with the fuselage tilted to the side? The slides on the higher side of the upper deck may be too steep after deployment. The slides on the lower side may get stuck on trees and not deploy properly. This happened in the front exit of AF358 and the passengers jumped instead of riding a twisted slide. Thus it is not unthinkable to consider an evacuation scenario for the A380 where all emergency exits upstairs are inoperable. That is not the case with an ATR72 or a Ford Pinto, is it?
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MidnightMike
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:21 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 22):
Asking this question is relevant.

The A380 is a new aircraft with a full size upper deck. The evacuation trials are performed under controlled circumstances. What would it be like if the evacuation had to be performed in a ditch, with the fuselage tilted to the side? The slides on the higher side of the upper deck may be too steep after deployment. The slides on the lower side may get stuck on trees and not deploy properly. This happened in the front exit of AF358 and the passengers jumped instead of riding a twisted slide. Thus it is not unthinkable to consider an evacuation scenario for the A380 where all emergency exits upstairs are inoperable. That is not the case with an ATR72 or a Ford Pinto, is it?

It would be impossible to come up with a scenario for all possible problems that could happen with any aircraft, only difference with the A380 is that it is bigger, that is why there is a standard way. Would imagine that when it comes time for the A380, Airbus would have to evacuate a full load of passengers whether 500 passengers or 700 passengers with half the doors/windows on the 1st & the 2nd deck blocked off. Of course, that is just a guess as to what the A380 evac certification would be...

Going back to the A340 accident, half the doors were not used, just like in the certification....
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aircanl1011
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:07 am

Getting back to "what if it had been an A380". Landing that far down the runway, what would it's speed have been at the end. Wouldn't the impact on the plane hitting the ditch be much worse.

I would think that the A380 would take longer to stop, and as they say, "The bigger it is, the harder it falls". This accident may have been a catastrophe if it had been that much bigger of a plane.
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ikramerica
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 am

Quoting FlySSC (Reply 19):
That's what happened on AF358. The A340 has 4 pairs of doors.
ALL the PAX were evacuated through only 4 doors. The 4 others could not be opened or were not opened deliberately by the Crew because of the fire outside.

In OVER 90 seconds by all accounts I've read (2 minutes to 2+ minutes).
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BG777300ER
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:22 am

Quoting PA110 (Reply 9):
Unlike most A.net uber-geeks, I have no desire to fly an A380.

Totally agree!!!
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:26 am

Quoting AIRCANL1011 (Reply 24):
I would think that the A380 would take longer to stop

Not necessarily so - it depends on if the braking power has been increased in proportion to the increase in mass. I'd imagine that Airbus would want them to be as similar as possible, to maintain their famous compatibility between family members.
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caribb
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:32 am

What if there had been no ravine at the end of the runway... all this might have been nothing more than an overrun with a couple of shook up passengers and a plane with landing gear damage. Regardless of the aircraft it still would have broken up in this hole...
 
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:49 am

Quoting Caribb (Reply 28):
What if there had been no ravine at the end of the runway

In that case, it seems quite plausible that it may have gone into the roads.
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caribb
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:54 am

Quoting Aviationwiz (Reply 29):
In that case, it seems quite plausible that it may have gone into the roads

Then there's still a bigger problem... The runway extension isn't large enough or there should be some means to safely stop/slow an aircraft down should it go beyond the normal reach of a runway. Don't ask me what or how though but I'm sure someone could come up with something better than having a 15 meter ravine at the end for it to drop into.

[Edited 2005-08-09 18:56:44]
 
aircanl1011
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:23 am

If AF358 had landed on R25 at the north end of the airport he would have ended up on Dixie RD. which would have been full of traffic at that time of day. We would then be looking at a much bigger problem
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FlySSC
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:31 am

If..., If..., If..., If..., If...,

What if we woud stop for good with all these "What if..." posts ?  sarcastic 
 
Indy
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:51 am

Quoting FlySSC (Reply 32):
If..., If..., If..., If..., If...,

What if we woud stop for good with all these "What if..." posts ? sarcastic

As much as I hate them at times it is part of what makes this website great. The free flow of ideas sparks debate and at times can unearth subjects that might normally be overlooked. If people start to doubt that they can post then the number of subjects starts to drop off. Along with that drops the value of the site.

Please don't take offense to this because it isn't directed at you but users in general. If you don't like the topic then don't read it. Just move on to one that interests you. Participate in the subjects you like and eventually the less popular ones will get bumped down the list and eventually go away.
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henpol747
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:40 am

If..., If..., If..., If..., If...,

What if we woud stop for good with all these "What if..." posts ?

What if my grandmother had wings?? she´d be a jet!!

Come one guys, I think FLYSSC has got it!! let´s cut the crap!!

Henpol747
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bongo
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:22 am

Quoting Henpol747 (Reply 34):
What if my grandmother had wings?? she´d be a jet!!

He he he....and you would be a Twin Otter...sorry couldn't resist  Smile
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jtamu97
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:30 am

IF frogs had wings, they would not bump their rear when hopping...IF IF IF continues
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:38 am

Quoting FlySSC (Reply 16):
uhhh ?

F-GLZQ Cabin version : 30J / 261 Y = 291
PAX on Board including babies = 297

If that was not full, what do you call a "full flight" ?!?!?

Add a couple of stow-aways  cold  in the mains and Pierre trapped in the belly while napping  yawn  when the cargo hold door was closed..... now she's full.
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Areopagus
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:48 am

Quoting CV747 (Reply 17):
Many years ago a 737-200 caught fire during taxing in the UK and a lot of people died because they did not get out. (Of course there was a chain of events...)

I recall reading in FI that many passengers insisted on taking their duty-free liquor with them, which resulted in a lot of broken glass at the bottom of the slides.
 
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litz
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:50 am

I'll tell you the "what-if" that makes me think ...

And this would apply to the upper deck on a 747 as well as an A380, or any other plane that will come along with a 2nd deck.

One thing that has come out of this accident is that the slides apparently are not reliable. One of the AF358 doors' slide failed to inflate at all, another did not fully inflate (I think someone mentioned it got tangled in a tree, also).

While a door not opening, or a tree in the way of the slide, or debris blocking the ground underneath, is unavoidable, if the door is clear, that slide SHOULD WORK - otherwise it's a long, long way down.

Of the four doors usable to the AF passengers, two of them did not have functional slides.

And that's from the main deck.

What do you do if the slide fails and you're on the UPPER deck ?

15 feet to the ground from the main deck can hurt you.

30+ feet from the upper deck can KILL you.

If this airplane had been an A380, and a similar number of exit doors were available, with a similar number of functioning slides, it's possible every single person on the upper deck may had been forced to evacuate through 1, maybe 2 doors. Or run downstairs.

That, I find a quite scary thought ...

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RedChili
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 5:09 am

Quoting PA110 (Reply 9):
do you really want to be in an evacuation with so many passengers all trying to get out?

Apparently, people flying with the Japanese or the Corsair 747s are not afraid of this. At ARN, I see lots of people every day who are not afraid of flying on a DK A333 configured with more than 400 seats. And even though that plane has only eight exits, I honestly don't think that any passenger is thinking in this way. That airplane is full all the time, so people apparently don't bother. Me personally, I would rather evacuate an SQ A380 with 470 pax than a DK A333 with 400 pax.

Quoting PA110 (Reply 9):
There isn't sufficient space now. Can you imagine the chaos checking in several A380 flights with queues of several different airlines running into each other?

Can you imagine the chaos if no airline would fly the A380, and they would need to check in two A340 planes instead of one A380? The number of air pax is growing like crazy every year, we just have to face it, and airports that are not ready for this will see chaos no matter what airplanes are landing there.

Quoting PA110 (Reply 9):
Don't even get me started with baggage claim. Picture Heathrow T3 baggage hall with EK, SQ and VS A380's all landing roughly at the same time.

If two A380s, four 744s, eight 777s and one Twin Otter lands at the same time, it doesn't matter if you are on the Twin Otter. The chaos will be the same for you as for the people from the A380s.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
Areopagus
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 5:21 am

What if AF358 had been a BWB? A passenger in the middle section sees not exits left and right, but more cabin sections.
 
birdbrainz
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 5:57 am

Regarding the A380 and the AF358 crash:

It's safe to say that the AF358 had trouble braking on a rain soaked runway, and in that case, reverse thrust is about all you've got.

If it's a 732 or DC-9 with effective reversers, you may still be in good shape, but I have no idea if the 343's reversers are relatively good. (Any 343 pilots who can answer this?)

Anyhow, the A380 has reversers on only two of the four engines, meaning that even if the reversers are super effective, there's only two of them. Let's just say that she's not going to stop well using reversers alone.

If AF358 was an A380, it most likely would have skidded off the runway, and those on the upper deck would have to hope that enough of the upper slides worked.
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jacobin777
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:01 am

The WhaleJet emergency exit tests will occur in a few months, if they can't get all of the pax out by 90 seconds, they will have another attempt to do it. If they can't do it the 2nd time, then The WhaleJet will have a whale of a problem as it won't be able to be certifiable with the pax count and they will have to decrease the amount of pax the plane (whale) will be able to handle...

I think it will be doable though.


source: can't find the bloody article on it..  Sad
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ultrapig
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:08 am

I have flown a moderate amount in the last 40 years-I know the 90 day rule but my reaction is that one reason everyone got out was that the 340's exists were all large doors that people could walk or jump out of instead of climbing out like in a narrow body-I know the rules are the same but my gut is that there would be an easier time evactuating a bigger plane with big doors and exits.
 
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:11 am

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
The incident in Toronto is a reminder to give strong preference to fly on the lower deck in the A380.
It also calls into question how realistic it is to run evacuation drills on aircraft standing inside a hangar on level ground.

Very good point. Another reason to think long and hard about the 380. Do we really "Need It"? Or do we "Want It?"
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na
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:38 am

Its not only the double deck issue that makes me think, its also another scenario: what if it had been a 773ER? Its massive engines would have surely broken away, ripping the wings open and a quicker, more severe fire would have very likely been the result.
 
Udo
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:41 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 22):
That is not the case with an ATR72 or a Ford Pinto, is it?

And what about a fully loaded Corsair B747 which seats more pax than most A380 customers plan to?

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 45):
Very good point. Another reason to think long and hard about the 380. Do we really "Need It"? Or do we "Want It?"

Then think long and hard and tell your ideas to all the A380 customers. Good luck.  Yeah sure


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litz
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RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:49 am

Quoting Ultrapig (Reply 44):
I have flown a moderate amount in the last 40 years-I know the 90 day rule but my reaction is that one reason everyone got out was that the 340's exists were all large doors that people could walk or jump out of instead of climbing out like in a narrow body-I know the rules are the same but my gut is that there would be an easier time evactuating a bigger plane with big doors and exits.

Well, I don't think it's really big jets vs small jets, really more the door size, as you point out ...

Any jet with overwing exits are going to be a bit more congested exiting out those doors, then through a full size boarding door. The size of the plane, in that case, is really immaterial.

And in the case of the A340, those passengers are very lucky they HAD all full-size doors ... in the case of this accident, over-wing exits may not have been usable if there was a fear of fire and/or explosion ...

on the A-380 instead of A-340 part of the thread, I think I remember reading somewhere that the -380 slides are actually double lane slides - 2 people can slide down simultaneously ... is this also true of the -340 and other planes?

- litz
 
skywatch
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Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2005 11:36 am

RE: What If AF358 Had Been An Airbus A380?

Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:42 am

If it was an A380, wouldn't it have gone to a longer runway?
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