dogfighter2111
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Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:44 am

Hey,

I read another topic about an 8th or 9th MD-11 for Finnair. The MD-11's are a getting old and there may be some newer models that may fit the Finnair fleet.

I think the A330 would suit Finnair the best. They already have A319's, A320's and A321's.

Anyone got any idea if they will plan on getting rid of the MD-11's in the near future?

Thanks
Mike
 
BlatantEcho
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:50 am

I believe they are on record as saying that the only replacment for their MD-11s would be more MD-11s.

So, nope, they are there to stay.
George
They're not handing trophies out today
 
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yyz717
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 12:57 am

There is no need to replace the M11 fleet any time soon.

If/when they do, perhaps a smaller widebody would suffice. The 788/789 or 358/59 is probably inevitable.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
legacy135
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:14 am

A major part of operating costs always result from financing as well. I am sure, at the moment you can get an MD11 for very interesting lease rates. So it can be absolutely an up to date aircraft for some more years.
Remember, the last ones have been delivered when A330/340 have been around already.
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:55 am

Quoting Legacy135 (Reply 3):

That's true, but i am talking about Brand New A330's off the Production line. Although some MD-11's are only 10 years old, they will more than likely be taken out of Passenger service within the next 5 or 6 years. And if it is possile, they may be converted into Cargo Aircraft.

Thanks
Mike
 
CV580Freak
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:05 am

I bet there are 5 or 6 major cargo airlines watching what they decide about their MD-11 replacement, they would rip their arm off  Smile
One day you are the pigeon, the next the statue ...
 
dutchjet
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:13 am

If Finnair was thinking about replacing the MD11 fleet, I dont think that they would be looking for additional MD11s are reported in another thread.

I think that Finnair is quite happy with the MD11, its suits their route system, the operating ecnomics are acceptable, and they are probably much cheaper to lease or acquire than 777s or A340s. The MD11s are not very old, between 10 and 15 years old, and they fly longhaul segments which means cycles are rather low - the MD11s can be flown for many more years without any issues.

My guess is that Finnair, when its ready to think about a replacement for the MD11 fleet, will look directly to the A350 and 787 families of aircraft. Its a bit late in the game for Finnair to select the A330/343....they can simply wait for the A350 at this point. Finnair could be interested in the 787 family, since its ideal for long thin routes and/or the 777 series for higher demand routes. In any case, Finnair has lots of time to figure this out.
 
Matt27
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:19 am

The CEO of Finnair once said:

Quote:
The best way of replacing an MD-11 is with an MD-11

//Mattias
Man ska inte dricka rödvin i en vit hall.
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:28 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 6):

If you'd read what i said, i meant for them to buy a replacement. Not lease.

Although i agree with you about the A350. I think Finnair was thinking about the A350 but i assume they wouldn't replace the MD-11's with th A350's. They'd open up new routes.

Thanks
Mike
 
legacy135
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:32 am

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 8):
If you'd read what i said, i meant for them to buy a replacement. Not lease.

Who bought aircraft the last ten years??? Most sold the rest and leased them back  Wink
 
ilgrancapo
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:36 am

Quoting BlatantEcho (Reply 1):
I believe they are on record as saying that the only replacment for their MD-11s would be more MD-11s.

As the CEO of Finnair said, the MD-11 it´s the best aircraft for the scandinavian airline.

But if you want to talk about long haul fleet retirement, why no CSA or Malev???????
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:38 am

Quoting Legacy135 (Reply 9):

hehe, that'd explain a lot.  Smile
 
OHLBU
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:09 am

Quoting Ilgrancapo (Reply 10):
best aircraft for the scandinavian airline

Just to make things accurate, Finland is not a part of Scandinavia. If you want to talk about Finland and Scandinavia together that would be Fennoscandia.

Finnair is not replacing their MD-11s during this decade, which means the A359 would be on the market just in time when they need the new planes. And although the '11s are maturing well, don't forget that McDonnell Douglas built their planes to last. Just look at the fleets of DC-9s/DC-10s still in use.
 
RedChili
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:41 am

"The next stage of fleet investment, at the turn of the decade, will involve the intercontinental fleet."

Quote from a Finnair press release on http://www.finnairgroup.com/desk/media_3_1_1.html?&Id=1092989686.html .

So what Finnair is saying here is basically that some time around 2010-2011, Finnair will replace its MD-11 airplanes with another plane. In my opinion, they will probably replace it with the A350 or the B787. I wouldn't be surprised if we will see a Finnair order some time soon for one of those two types. And since Finnair is currently growing like crazy, I guess that they need at least ten planes for the beginning of next decade.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
FCKC
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 5:54 am

The plane replacement for the MD11 has already been discussed in another thread , not so long ago.
AY is studying the A350 , not the 787.
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:47 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 13):

Hey,

Thanks for the great info.

As Finnair is going Airbus then i think the A350 will be the best option. Or that A380  Smile

Thanks
Mike
 
killjoy
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 6:51 am

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 2):
If/when they do, perhaps a smaller widebody would suffice. The 788/789 or 358/59 is probably inevitable.

Isn't the A359 actually larger than the MD-11? In any case, I don't think a smaller one will do, and I also think this will cause the B787 to lose.

Finnair is currently flying to Bangkok more than once a day and I highly doubt that they would want to cut capacity. The 359 can match the MD-11, but the 789 can't. It would force them to either increase frequencies, or to also fly the 777. The former option isn't all that attractive, as there already is a decent amount of flights, and the latter option of flying two types would obviously raise costs.

I'm not 100% confident about my theory, however, as other issues may also affect the decision. For example, they may well decide to replace the 757 with the 787, which would then make the 777 an obvious MD-11 replacement, even if it is a bit bulky for some routes, and older than the A350. Cargo capacity should also be important.

I do think a combination of A321, A358 and A359 is more logical, though. It'll leave a gap where the 757 is, but almost any solution will leave a gap somewhere, and it's one type less than the best Boeing-combination I can come up with (they already fly the A321).

Plus, if they keep growing at this rate, they'll need the A380 for BKK in ten years  Wink . Do any of you think that'll actually happen? I don't know. Stranger things have taken place.
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:18 am

Quoting Killjoy (Reply 16):

The B787 is really a B757ER replacement.

The A350 is an A330 replacement/redesign.

Therefore, the A350 would be a better option for more PAX and increased range.

Thanks
Mike
 
Lumberton
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:47 am

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 17):
The B787 is really a B757ER replacement.

Can you elaborate on this please?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:56 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 18):

I cannot give you a link at the moment. I will get you a link to a Boeing News Report where they said that with no more production of the B757, the B787 will serve as a Replacement.

Thanks
Mike
 
killjoy
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:09 am

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 19):
they said that with no more production of the B757, the B787 will serve as a Replacement.

The 787 can replace the 757, but that doesn't mean it's what it's best at. It's much too large to replace it 1:1.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:21 am

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 19):
I cannot give you a link at the moment. I will get you a link to a Boeing News Report where they said that with no more production of the B757, the B787 will serve as a Replacement.

Thanks, Mike. That'll be interesting reading!
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
RedChili
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 8:48 am

Quoting Killjoy (Reply 16):
Isn't the A359 actually larger than the MD-11? In any case, I don't think a smaller one will do, and I also think this will cause the B787 to lose.

Agree. I checked the numbers on Airbus and Boeing web sites now, and I guess that the 787 will be too small to replace the MD-11 for AY. The A359 has 15 seats more than the MD-11 in three-class, so that's better.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
OV735
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:11 pm

I've heard the main reason why AY likes those M11's so much is because of what lies below the passenger cabin, ie the large cargo capacity, which is very useful as the airline doesn't have a separate cargo arm.

That's what keeps them from buying any A330's or 777 now, as both have much smaller cargo holds and AY probably doesn't want to cut down on cargo capacity, as that's a large source of income.

Since they're going to have to switch to new models some time within the next 10 years, and none of the current 'future' designs (787 and 350, that is) probably have a large cargo hold either, there would be basically two options: a) cutting back on capacity (unlikely, I think); or b) opening a separate cargo arm with dedicated cargo aircraft. In the latter scenario we could theoretically see some of those M11's being converted to cargo carriers, so that might give even more time for the tri-jet in the AY fleet.

But then again, it might be all different.

Cheers
OV735
 
hz747300
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 2:27 pm

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 17):
The A350 is an A330 replacement/redesign.

The A350 is really an A330 with A350 painted over it...

Finnair will go for the A350 in the same way Royal Air Maroc went for the 787.
Keep on truckin'...
 
eilennaei
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:27 pm

I'm understanding from what I read yesterday in my local paper that Mr Bjurström, Head of Operations, says that the new long-range equipment, which will "inevitably" come sooner or later (of course), will supplement rather than replace the MD-11. That would make sense in the sense that clocking the typical MD-11 to 100,000 hours+ would take some 30+ years, judging from some high-time early 1970s DC-10 airframes. He specifically said that products of both Airbus and Boeing would be considered as alternatives when the decision time comes.
There's I believe some pressure from a major Finnair shareholder Fridrik Jóhannsson of Burdarás to adopt a more aggressive Asian expansion policy.(Burdaras has been raking in serious money from a recent Finnair share deal, and is now the second largest investor to the company, next to the State of Finland.)

http://www.burdaras.is/EN/article.aspx?catID=50&artID=134
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 3:44 pm

Quoting Killjoy (Reply 20):

Sorry, it is more than likely the way i explained it. I meant it to serve as a replacement. Not as a replacement.

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 21):

Sorry, but i couldn't find that link. I will keep trying though.

Thanks
Mike
 
1MillionFlyer
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:01 pm

Northwest has a DC-10-30 with over 125,000 hours and it is still flying.

I can't understand why people think an airframe that is less than 12 years old is "getting old".

Wait 10 more years then ask that question.
Golf Foxtrot you are cleared for departure
 
FCKC
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:13 pm

HZ747300



Exactly

Killjoy

BKK , they will need A380 in ten years>

This is a possibily.Who was thinking when they operated 3 DC8-62s some decades ago , in 2005 they will have a fleet a nearly 10 MD11s ? Surely nobody.
Who can think in 2005 , they could have in 2015 some A380s.Surely nobody , and surely many people laugh at this idea.

Very few people can accept to be projected in the future.

Aviation is always growing at a different rate each year , but always grows.

So why not A380s at AY in ten years ?
 
Maersk737
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:18 pm

Quoting HZ747300 (Reply 24):
Finnair will go for the A350 in the same way Royal Air Maroc went for the 787.

Could you please explain?

Cheers

Peter
I'm not proud to be a Viking, just thankfull
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 4:18 pm

Quoting 1millionflyer (Reply 27):

1 Day after you get an aircraft is old. It is no longer worth the value that you bought it for.

Thanks
Mike
 
MD11junkie
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 5:11 pm

Quoting 1millionflyer (Reply 27):
I can't understand why people think an airframe that is less than 12 years old is "getting old".

They sure don't think the 747-400, 757, 767 are old... no... they are modern...

Quoting OV735 (Reply 23):
I've heard the main reason why AY likes those M11's so much is because of what lies below the passenger cabin, ie the large cargo capacity, which is very useful as the airline doesn't have a separate cargo arm.

That's what keeps them from buying any A330's or 777 now, as both have much smaller cargo holds and AY probably doesn't want to cut down on cargo capacity, as that's a large source of income.

Interesting point of view/data. Maybe, AY will not dispose all of its MD11s. I don't know how many of them are leased, but I could say that if AY likes the range, and cargo hold it could very well commit those MD-11s to cargo, or at least some and have the A359 (or 789) replace him for flying pax (ahhh... so sad  Sad ).

Quoting FCKC (Reply 14):
The plane replacement for the MD11 has already been discussed in another thread , not so long ago.
AY is studying the A350 , not the 787.

Both planes are taken into consideration, but none has proven its reliability and specs. AY has the perfect timing for them. They'll start ordering when they are ready to get the Mighty Dogs out of the fleet  Sad.

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 30):
1 Day after you get an aircraft is old. It is no longer worth the value that you bought it for.

True, just like a car. But never the less, people "catalogue" aircraft. So, it doesn't matter about market value or whatever. We are talking people's thoughts.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 13):
So what Finnair is saying here is basically that some time around 2010-2011, Finnair will replace its MD-11 airplanes with another plane.

Ehm, aren't they saying that the planes will START leaving the fleet in 2011? So... it might be a couple of years till they completely get them out. The phase out delay due to delivery or no available slots might take very well into through half through next decade. I'm expecting the -11 to leave passenger service (for major airlines) by 2015 (approx)
Either way, with tailwind and all, A350s and 787s will not start being delivered till the time AY is out there to look out for new planes, that is, when the 11s are reaching its age, 6 years from now.

Mike, can you... tell me about that 757ER? Really interesting...


Cheers! wave 
Gastón - The MD-11 Junkie
There is no such thing as Boeing vs Airbus as the queen of the skies has three engines, winglets and the sweetest nose!
 
RedChili
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 5:49 pm

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 31):
Quoting 1millionflyer (Reply 27):
I can't understand why people think an airframe that is less than 12 years old is "getting old".

They sure don't think the 747-400, 757, 767 are old... no... they are modern...

The difference is that the 757 and 767 were made by almighty Boeing, but the MD-11 was made by a horrible Boeing competitor! Anything which doesn't come from Boeing is old after three or four years.

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 31):
Ehm, aren't they saying that the planes will START leaving the fleet in 2011? So... it might be a couple of years till they completely get them out. The phase out delay due to delivery or no available slots might take very well into through half through next decade.

Actually, the press release was not very detailed. It could be interpreted as saying that AY will replace all MD-11s in 2009-2010 (if you consider 2010 to be the beginning of the new decade), or it could be interpreted as saying that AY will start the replacement in 2011 (if you consider that year to be the beginning of the new decade) and continue for several years.

Since the long haul fleet is not very big, I believe that AY should try to replace the whole fleet as quickly as possible, so that they don't have two types in the fleet during five years. But that's just my two cents. I don't know if AY agrees. How long did it take LX to replace their MD-11 with the A343?
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
eilennaei
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 5:49 pm

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 31):
They'll start ordering when they are ready to get the Mighty Dogs out of the fleet

That's ongoing in fact, and the final MD-80 flight has been already fixed, around Sept. 2006.
 
OHLHD
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Wed Aug 10, 2005 10:19 pm

I had the pleasure to talk to a AY- Manager. He said that there actualy no plans to order any new A/C. The focus is on the EMB170 introduction and afterwards they will start looking but he also said that we cannot expect anyorder soon as the MD-11 will stay at least until the end of the decade if not longer.

There is also no need for the replacement of the 757 soon.
 
MD11junkie
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:32 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 32):
The difference is that the 757 and 767 were made by almighty Boeing, but the MD-11 was made by a horrible Boeing competitor! Anything which doesn't come from Boeing is old after three or four years.

I pray for your sake that this is sarcasm  Silly

Quoting Eilennaei (Reply 33):
That's ongoing in fact, and the final MD-80 flight has been already fixed, around Sept. 2006.

No, Mighty Dogs = MD11, Mad Dogs = MD8X.  Smile

Quoting OHLHD (Reply 34):
I had the pleasure to talk to a AY- Manager. He said that there actualy no plans to order any new A/C. The focus is on the EMB170 introduction and afterwards they will start looking but he also said that we cannot expect anyorder soon as the MD-11 will stay at least until the end of the decade if not longer.

This does say that they are quite pleased with it and that they are not wanting to get rid of it  Smile.

Cheers! wave 
Gastón - The MD-11 Junkie
There is no such thing as Boeing vs Airbus as the queen of the skies has three engines, winglets and the sweetest nose!
 
killjoy
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 3:43 am

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 35):
Mighty Dogs = MD11

What, it's not Mega Death, son of Death Cruiser? Big grin
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:47 pm

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 30):
1 Day after you get an aircraft is old. It is no longer worth the value that you bought it for.

Thanks
Mike

Maybe you should do some research a 1955 Bonanza sells for about 300% MORE than it did new, some airplanes do not lose their value.

Also, if you don't use the plane you paid for why buy it?
Golf Foxtrot you are cleared for departure
 
MD-90
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 3:09 pm

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 37):
Maybe you should do some research a 1955 Bonanza sells for about 300% MORE than it did new, some airplanes do not lose their value.

Nah, think of all the inflation during the last 50 years caused by our national government.
 
ha763
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 3:18 pm

Quoting OV735 (Reply 23):
I've heard the main reason why AY likes those M11's so much is because of what lies below the passenger cabin, ie the large cargo capacity, which is very useful as the airline doesn't have a separate cargo arm.

That's what keeps them from buying any A330's or 777 now, as both have much smaller cargo holds and AY probably doesn't want to cut down on cargo capacity, as that's a large source of income.

That's incorrect. The 777-200A/ER/LR (no optional tanks) carry the exact same amount of ULDs as the MD-11, 18 LD-3s in front, 14 in back for a total of 32. The same goes for the A330-300, which also can carry a total of 32 LD-3s. In fact, the 777-200 has more volume available for cargo than the MD-11, 5656 cu ft for the 777 compared to 5566 cu ft.
 
OV735
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 3:33 pm

Quoting Ha763 (Reply 39):
That's incorrect.

Roger that. I should have checked before I wrote that.
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 5:29 pm

Quoting MD11junkie (Reply 31):

Good God, what a mess i have gotten myself into...lol  Smile

When i said B757ER i meant the B787 would serve as a replacement for a B757ER. The B787 has a larger range than the B757 therfore if the B787 were to be able to replace the B757, it'd be like a B757ER.

Get me now?  Smile

Thanks
Mike
 
Billy
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 5:56 pm

Not sure if this has been posted but AY is launching Nagoya with their 7th unit. This will start next year.
 
UpperDeck79
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 5:58 pm

Quoting Billy (Reply 42):
Not sure if this has been posted but AY is launching Nagoya with their 7th unit. This will start next year.

You were the first one!  Smile They just had a press release about it. Way to go, AY!  Wink
AY and ANA rock!
 
dogfighter2111
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:59 pm

Quoting Billy (Reply 42):

That will be a great destination. Well, most Asian routes are Profitable from the EU.

Thanks
Mike
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:55 am

RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Fri Aug 12, 2005 1:50 am

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 38):
Nah, think of all the inflation during the last 50 years caused by our national government.

The government alone does not cause inflation, increasing wages, supply and demand for goods and services, Trade deficit and monetary policy all contribute among other things.

my statement above is correct,

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 37):
a 1955 Bonanza sells for about 300% MORE than it did new

www.aso.com 1955 H35 Bonanza with 4200 hours 119,000 now, 43,500 new then, a 275% increase.

I am sorry for being off by 9.1% however.

http://woodrow.mpls.frb.fed.us/Research/data/us/calc/index.cfm

Adjusted for inflation $43,500 from 1955 is now worth $315,831 , but then again you would not have had an airplane to fly for 50 years!

[Edited 2005-08-11 18:52:30]
Golf Foxtrot you are cleared for departure
 
dogfighter2111
Posts: 1867
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RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Fri Aug 12, 2005 7:53 am

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 45):

Exactly, a B747 would never fly for 50 or 60 years. 36 at the most probably.

Thanks
Mike
 
1MillionFlyer
Posts: 1937
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:55 am

RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Fri Aug 12, 2005 12:06 pm

Quoting Dogfighter2111 (Reply 46):
36 at the most probably.

Then the time value of money would cause less inflation adjusted difference in value.

You just answered you own "old" question, the MD-11s are only 10-15 years old, they have a good 10-12 years left and you can lease one a lot more cheaply than leasing a 200,000,000 dollar A340 or 777 new from the factory.
Golf Foxtrot you are cleared for departure
 
dogfighter2111
Posts: 1867
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2004 3:02 am

RE: Finnair Replacement For MD-11

Fri Aug 12, 2005 2:51 pm

Quoting 1MillionFlyer (Reply 47):

Ahh yes, but I only said a B747 would fly for around 36 years. Not an MD-11  Wink

Although, you explained it first then I understood what you were saying.

Thanks
Mike

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