Sinlock
Topic Author
Posts: 1631
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2000 12:55 am

Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 3:56 am

I was looking across the field at FLL the other day, and saw the one of the MD-11s that are coming ever more common here and it got me thinking...

How is FedEx going to handle expansion of the Light-Mid sized market for North America in the near and distant future? In terms of the 727 to DC-10-30 size aircraft there is no real replacement. In the short term as the 380F arrives a few MD-11s will be free for other routes but not enough to make a real difference as it will most likely be a 1:1 ratio and FedEx could easily use those for more Intl expansion.


For the Long term the market doesn't seem to offer much.

DC-10: All the decent aircraft have been bought years ago.

MD-11: There are a few to be found, but don't really suit the Light to Mid size market.

727-200: Many around and are cheap but with today's fuel prices not a likely choice.

757-200: A possible choice but adds a new aircraft to the fleet, most airlines hold on too the aircraft until they reach very high cycles, also any low cycle aircraft would also attract UPS and DHL looking to possibly expand.

A310: Good for the job but there is not much in the market.

A300: The most likely choice. But doesn't really fix the Light-size gap.

A330: There is no current 330 Freighter, and is in the DC-10/MD-11 size Class.

A350: Same issue as the 330 , But could later replace the DC-10/MD-11 class.

787: Not likely to be a freighter any time soon, Wrong size class, and like the 350 would not be cheap to buy.

767-200F: There is a dark horse possibility that this would work for the gap between the 727/DC-10. But I think we all know the reason that will never happen (LD-3 issue, almost closed production line). But if the USAF contract goes with the KC-767 a 767-200F can't be ruled out 100%.
 
JohnJ
Posts: 1362
Joined: Tue Jun 27, 2000 5:01 am

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 4:04 am

You left one type off your list, the 737 (either Next Gen or -300, -400 or -500) that is strongly rumored to be in future for the FedEx fleet.
 
Scorpio
Posts: 4763
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2001 3:48 am

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 4:08 am

Quoting Sinlock (Thread starter):
A310: Good for the job but there is not much in the market.

I wouldn't quite say that. About half a dozen are already in Dresden right now being converted to freighters for FedEx or waiting to be converted. And I'm quite sure quite a few more will become available in the years to come. Along with a growing number of A300-600s becoming available, I think FedEx is pretty much covered in this segment for the next few years...
 
PADSpot
Posts: 1637
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2005 11:31 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:29 am

Quoting Sinlock (Thread starter):
A330: There is no current 330 Freighter, and is in the DC-10/MD-11 size Class.

A350: Same issue as the 330 , But could later replace the DC-10/MD-11 class.

Well, if the A350 will be finally built (we will know in September) there will be no A330 freighter, but maybe a A350 freighter ... especially because Boeing didn't announced a 787 freighter so far and the gap to the 77LRF is big enough ...

As for Fedex I think they will further buy converted A300/A310 for the continental routes. For intercontinal routes they will soon get problems to get further MD-11, since these are rather popular and very few are left in the desert ... so I see a good chance that they will buy new big freighters like 77LRFs, future A350Fs or 787 freighters ....

[Edited 2005-08-10 23:50:08]
 
dhefty
Posts: 587
Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 8:04 am

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:38 am

Quoting Scorpio (Reply 2):
And I'm quite sure quite a few more will become available in the years to come. Along with a growing number of A300-600s becoming available, I think FedEx is pretty much covered in this

What about the 37 A300s that are to be canceled by UPS in favor of 10 A380F's? Maybe FedEx would want those. Then again, maybe not. When is FedEx scheduled to get their 10 A380F's?
 
User avatar
N328KF
Posts: 5806
Joined: Tue May 25, 2004 3:50 am

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:43 am

Quoting Dhefty (Reply 4):
What about the 37 A300s that are to be canceled by UPS in favor of 10 A380F's? Maybe FedEx would want those. Then again, maybe not. When is FedEx scheduled to get their 10 A380F's?

They haven't been built yet. I'm sure Airbus basically has decided that this is the end of the A300.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
fedexexpress
Posts: 275
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:35 am

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:44 am

IND is scheduled to get 2 A380's a day here at the Indianapolis Hub Operations. I can't wait for that. I unload and reload for the International flights here at IND so that will be an awesome one to do as well!!!!!!!Can't wait! Eric
"Its not what your country can do for you its what you can do for your country" JFK
 
nosedive
Posts: 2176
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 2:18 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:54 am

Quote:
DC-10: All the decent aircraft have been bought years ago.

They'll be around for a while, see the MD10 conversions

Quote:
MD-11: There are a few to be found, but don't really suit the Light to Mid size market.

Long range, will be complimented by the A380

Quote:
727-200: Many around and are cheap but with today's fuel prices not a likely choice.

FX got the newest 727s off the line, IIRC. And then there's the "annouced/rumored/voodoo" 737 orders...
Sidebar: Doesn't FX have a fuel surcharge on packages??

Quote:
757-200: A possible choice but adds a new aircraft to the fleet, most airlines hold on too the aircraft until they reach very high cycles, also any low cycle aircraft would also attract UPS and DHL looking to possibly expand.

Seems to me that FX is happy w/ the 727,310,300 config...

Quote:
A310: Good for the job but there is not much in the market.

They're getting more...

Quote:
A300: The most likely choice. But doesn't really fix the Light-size gap.

I think FX knows how to handle the Light-size gap...

Quote:
A330: There is no current 330 Freighter, and is in the DC-10/MD-11 size Class.

A350: Same issue as the 330 , But could later replace the DC-10/MD-11 class.

Seems to me this is at least 10 yrs away...

Quote:
787: Not likely to be a freighter any time soon, Wrong size class, and like the 350 would not be cheap to buy.

"not cheap to buy" new builds and launchs has not stopped FX in the past, ie MD11, DC10, 727, A310?, A300, A380... you get the idea: a nice mix of of used and new builds...

Quote:
767-200F: There is a dark horse possibility that this would work for the gap between the 727/DC-10. But I think we all know the reason that will never happen (LD-3 issue, almost closed production line). But if the USAF contract goes with the KC-767 a 767-200F can't be ruled out 100%.

I think the LD-3 issue hits this one on the head...
 
dispatcher
Posts: 238
Joined: Sun Jun 20, 1999 12:05 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:03 am

Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 6):
IND is scheduled to get 2 A380's a day here at the Indianapolis Hub Operations.

Fedexexpress,

Not that I doubt you, but where did this info come from?
 
CV580Freak
Posts: 886
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2005 12:39 am

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 8:28 am

Will IND (not FedEx) be able to handle A380F's?.

A lot of money to be spent for 2 flights a day and I can't see anyother A380 operator using IND.

Whilst not questioning Fedexexpress's info, I would have thought that the A380F's would be centrered on the MEM HUB.

Would be good to see one in BAH rather than the B1900  Smile
One day you are the pigeon, the next the statue ...
 
fedexexpress
Posts: 275
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 9:35 am

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 9:56 am

Quoting Dispatcher (Reply 8):
Not that I doubt you, but where did this info come from?



Quoting CV580Freak (Reply 9):
Will IND (not FedEx) be able to handle A380F's?.

A lot of money to be spent for 2 flights a day and I can't see anyother A380 operator using IND.

Whilst not questioning Fedexexpress's info, I would have thought that the A380F's would be centrered on the MEM HUB.

Would be good to see one in BAH rather than the B1900

For both of you two gentlemen I work at the IND hub and I have a packet about 28 pages long. The current plans are to route the A380's via IND, MEM, ANC. OAK, and EWR are not going to get them anytime soon. It is by far worth if for IND to invest that kind of money, when I also have the master plans that Fedex wants to make IND the largest hub world wide. That is no secret. Fred Smith in an monthly paper that we get said that MEM is land locked and IND will be the largerest operations hub in the world. I am going to try to scan some of these papers because it actually shows what they would like it to look like when done! So i will try and post a topic!!!!! Eric
"Its not what your country can do for you its what you can do for your country" JFK
 
Tiger119
Posts: 1593
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 1:52 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 10:41 am

Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 10):
...... that we get said that MEM is land locked and IND will be the largerest operations hub in the world

- If runway length is a question for the A380, the parallels at IND can be lengthened
Flying is the second greatest thrill known to mankind, landing is the first!
 
JohnJ
Posts: 1362
Joined: Tue Jun 27, 2000 5:01 am

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Thu Aug 11, 2005 11:49 am

"That is no secret. Fred Smith in an monthly paper that we get said that MEM is land locked and IND will be the largerest operations hub in the world."

Interesting if true. Fred Smith is a Memphian at heart, and people from Memphis are bullish on keeping their city on top - it would seem odd that Smith would deliberately put IND on top of Memphis. There's plenty of room around MEM for expansion - a huge park complete with a golf course was closed a number of years ago and is completely vacant on the south end, and there is a lot of spare space along the west side of the airport where there used to be a housing subdivision - check Google Earth and you'll see. Building there would require more home displacement and the re-routing of Airways Blvd, but considering about 1 in 10 households in the Memphis metro area have someone who works for FedEx, that probably wouldn't be much of an issue. It's true that the areas around the FedEx hub are closed in , but Memphis is truly land-locked only on its north and east boundaries. I'd be very interested to see a scan of Mr. Smith's comments about IND's future.

The conventional wisdom around Memphis is that the real threat to toppling Memphis' #1 cargo ranking now is Hong Kong. Domestic cargo traffic has pretty well flattened out while Asian cargo is red-hot and likely to grow for many years.

[Edited 2005-08-11 04:52:02]
 
membase
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:31 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:58 pm

Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 10):



Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 10):
For both of you two gentlemen I work at the IND hub and I have a packet about 28 pages long. The current plans are to route the A380's via IND, MEM, ANC. OAK, and EWR are not going to get them anytime soon. It is by far worth if for IND to invest that kind of money, when I also have the master plans that Fedex wants to make IND the largest hub world wide. That is no secret. Fred Smith in an monthly paper that we get said that MEM is land locked and IND will be the largerest operations hub in the world. I am going to try to scan some of these papers because it actually shows what they would like it to look like when done! So i will try and post a topic!!!!! Eric

I work for FedEx Air Ops in Memphis. First of all, there ARE plans to fly an A380 through IND but not until after we receive aircraft no. 9 or 10. That's around 2010 or 2011.

As for any plans to make IND a larger hub than MEM, I'm afraid you're hearing some wishful thinking on the part of somebody in Indianapolis. There hasn't been anything like this mentioned in any future fleet/route planning scenarios. This is simply not in the cards, and here's why:

(1) FedEx is not buying enough domestic a/c to allow such an expansion at Indy, which would mean the only way for this to happen would be to shift flights away from MEM in favor of Indy.

(2) Why would FedEx want to devote scarce capital to relocating its main domestic hub when it needs to be spending that money expanding in Asia? The US air express market has been experiencing flat growth for several years now with no real sign of an upsurge. Wall Street would strongly question the wisdom of building a big new hub in Indy while the MEM hub continues to work just fine.

(3) The US population is shifting south and west. Why would FedEx move its center of operations to the northeast?

(4) The MEM hub is not landlocked. FedEx will acquire the TN Air Guard base as soon as a new Air Guard facility is completed in 2008. That will provide additional ramp space for at least 20-30 more aircraft. We just broke ground on a new ramp/hangar complex which will accomodate 8 A380s. Finally, there are office buildings/parking lots adjacent to the hub (including the building I work in!) that could be bullzoned if necessary to add more hub/ramp space.

There are growth plans for IND and it will continue to be an important part of the US domestic network, but it will not outgrow MEM.
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:19 pm

Quoting MEMbase (Reply 13):
As for any plans to make IND a larger hub than MEM, I'm afraid you're hearing some wishful thinking on the part of somebody in Indianapolis. There hasn't been anything like this mentioned in any future fleet/route planning scenarios.

I have heard this mentioned by more than one person and have seen a news writeup on this as well. This has been no big secret for a number of years. This isn't something that was just cooked up overnight. However this may have been drafted before Fedex was able to work out a land swap deal with the TN national guard. When you compare MEM to IND you can say MEM is pretty well landlocked. But the guard deal may be what changes things. But he isn't making it up when he states what Fedex was intending to do. As I mentioned it is old news here in Indianapolis.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:22 pm

Quoting Fedexexpress (Reply 10):
I work at the IND hub and I have a packet about 28 pages long.

If you want to hook up one day and get me a copy of that I can get it all scanned and put online. Just make sure that anything confidential is blocked out.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
nosedive
Posts: 2176
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 2:18 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Sat Aug 13, 2005 3:34 pm

Quoting MEMbase (Reply 13):
office buildings/parking lots adjacent to the hub

Sidebar: Which operations are between MEM, Winchester, and Collierhell?

And don't say "planes are at MEM"  sarcastic 
 
membase
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:31 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:21 pm

Quoting Nosedive (Reply 16):
Sidebar: Which operations are between MEM, Winchester, and Collierhell?

And don't say "planes are at MEM"

MEM - Air Operations (Base/Line MX/Engineering/Flight Ops/Materiel). Engine Shop, Base Mx Facility, Feeder A/C, Corporate Aviation, hub recruitment and training. Also, of course, aircraft  Smile

WHQ (Winchester/Hacks Cross) - most Express corporate functions...executive management, accounting, finance, marketing, global business planning.

WTC (Collierville) - World Technology Center. IT functions, some marketing.

There's also a significant presence at a place called the CTC on Airways, to the west of the passenger terminal. I know there are some payroll/HR functions over there but not sure what else.

Finally, there's a nice little 4-story building tucked away on Shady Grove, just north of Poplar. That's the headquarters for FDX corporate....Fred's office.
 
membase
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Aug 13, 2005 2:31 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:30 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 14):
I have heard this mentioned by more than one person and have seen a news writeup on this as well. This has been no big secret for a number of years. This isn't something that was just cooked up overnight. However this may have been drafted before Fedex was able to work out a land swap deal with the TN national guard. When you compare MEM to IND you can say MEM is pretty well landlocked. But the guard deal may be what changes things. But he isn't making it up when he states what Fedex was intending to do. As I mentioned it is old news here in Indianapolis.

I doubt he's making it up, but over the past 2-3 years this has never been seriously discussed at FX. And I've been in several meetings involving advanced facility and fleet planning. It would have come up somewhere. I think it was a negotiating tactic to push the TANG land swap along. Now that we have the TANG space, there's plenty of land for the foreseeable future.

Furthermore, MEM has several more things it could do before becoming truly landlocked, such as move Democrat Rd. or Tchulahoma Rd. out of the way to expand ramp space north and west. Heck, they would probably relocate the passenger terminal before they'd let FedEx move or expand elsewhere!
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Fed Ex Expansion.

Sat Aug 13, 2005 4:33 pm

Quoting MEMbase (Reply 18):
I think it was a negotiating tactic to push the TANG land swap along.

I think they pull the same crap here to try and get additional tax breaks and incentives.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air

Who is online