deltaguy767
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The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Sun Aug 14, 2005 12:36 pm

Dear All,
With most of the US airlines in financial turmoil, with fuel prices, and inflation in the steadily growing US Economy I began to ponder recently what will become of the airlines that we know in the US today. Five years from now what will we see, Ten years, maybe sooner. Here are my opinions based upon current fuel trends and financial stability.

UA:Will be most likely be gobbled up by another airline or collapse within the next five years. Or the SEC/DOJ will allow US/UA to merge and save each other.
US: As an analyst of the airline industry told me, "The government is giving USAIR enough crumbs to prolong its death" US will either fail within the next year to two years or its fate will be as I mentioned above.
NW: Will most likely file for BK within the next year and while in BK will restructure and will most likely survive.
CO: Will continue to stay into the black and is in really good shape to stay alive. I could see them taking over DL should they become too weak.
DL: Will file BK within the year unless DL wins the Lotto and their debts get paid off magically. I really like this airline and I would really hate for them to be taken over or go down the toilet. Their service is the best I've seen (with CO following close behind) and I really like their Song and new mainline seats and cabins which I believe represent change into a new and much improved airline. But due to their financial woes thanks to Leo and his buddies on the board who didn't have the guts to fire him. However if things keep continuing to go south for DL I se them being taken over by CO.
AA: I really despise this airline for a number of reasons and I am completely surprised that they are in the black right now. However I believe that AA and CO are in the same boat in which they will take over another airline should they fall into a sour situation(US,UA,DL,NW). But due to this airline's size that could prevent them from taking over another airline even if they are in trouble due to SEC/DOJ intervention.
B6,WN,FL,F9: These airlines are all in a good financial situation and will have no problems in staying alive with the possible exception of FL.

Now these are only my opinions and I want to know what you all think what will become of the US Airline Industry?
A Good Landing is one you walk away from!
 
futureuapilot
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Sun Aug 14, 2005 12:51 pm

I like your thoughts, they look pretty accurate. CO, and AA will continue to do well, as well as NW, they will stay where they are too. In my opinion, UA will make a comeback somehow, and regain their major airline status. The others, well, I just don't know...

-Sam
The Pilot is the highest form of life on Earth!
 
dforce1
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Sun Aug 14, 2005 2:27 pm

Depending on the strength and network coverage of the newly merged US Airways entity, I highly doubt that the Star Alliance partners will allow United to go down without a fight or some major injections particularly from Air Canada and Lufthansa.
 
HunUtazo
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Sun Aug 14, 2005 10:26 pm

UAL will be merged into CAL
dude
 
Cory6188
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:24 am

I think that CO would like to merge with UA, but it simply isn't financially possible at the time, nor in the near future. CO has enough of their own debt to deal with at the moment, forget about taking on UA's as well.
 
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ER757
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:39 am

I think there will be some mergers and failures in the next 5-10 years as fuel costs continue to spiral out of control. I think the result is that airlines will of course need to raise fares to pay for fuel, and there will be less leisure travel as a result. More business travelers may opt for video conferencing etc over flying to a three hour meeting halfway across country, further reducing the number of passengers. At some point the cost of a ticket will begin to affect the number of people flying, I just don't know what point that will be, but I think we'll find out within the above time frame.
Just my  twocents 
 
bravo7e7
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 12:40 am

It would be nice if you could give some substantiation, rather than just make statements like these. Why do you think these things are gonna happen, specifically for UA?
 
LawnDart
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 1:36 am

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
UA:Will be most likely be gobbled up by another airline or collapse within the next five years. Or the SEC/DOJ will allow US/UA to merge and save each other.



Quoting Cory6188 (Reply 4):
I think that CO would like to merge with UA, but it simply isn't financially possible at the time, nor in the near future. CO has enough of their own debt to deal with at the moment, forget about taking on UA's as well.

But who could buy them? CO? As stated above, they have enough debt of their own...and a couple of quarters of weak profitability doesn't give them the wherewithal to take on UA's debt. Having said that, some UA assets could be bought...AA would love their Pacific route authority, and anyone else could buy LHR...and US is probably a little preoccupied with their merger with HP.

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
NW: Will most likely file for BK within the next year and while in BK will restructure and will most likely survive

Let's see how the strike turns out next week...CH11 could soon follow. Also, NW has huge capital expenditures ahead if they ever want to replace their DC9s...

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
CO: Will continue to stay into the black and is in really good shape to stay alive. I could see them taking over DL should they become too weak.

CO has two hubs...EWR and IAH...EWR is expensive and congested, and IAH is a little too far south to be anything more than an effective southern-tier and -Mexico link. As far as staying in the black...not at $65 a barrel oil they won't.

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
DL: Will file BK within the year unless DL wins the Lotto and their debts get paid off magically.

They'll file sooner than that...but remember, they still have some furniture to burn (the Connection Carriers, possibly TechOps, possibly the Shuttle...). A combination of CO and DL does make sense (they're very complimentary), and such a merger could be financed...possibly by AF?

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
AA: I really despise this airline for a number of reasons and I am completely surprised that they are in the black right now.

Not so surprising when you consider they have hubs in two of the largest markets in the U.S....ORD and DFW (and they have it all to themselves in DFW)...plus a well balance market share throughout the continent...good share in Europe, along with LHR...the dominant share in Latin America...and they have always had very, very shrewd management.

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
B6,WN,FL,F9: These airlines are all in a good financial situation and will have no problems in staying alive with the possible exception of FL.

Look at financial statement (Annual Reports are usually found on airlines' websites) and you'll see that F9 is the weakest of the four mentioned above.

Quoting DFORCE1 (Reply 2):
Star Alliance partners will allow United to go down without a fight or some major injections particularly from Air Canada

The holding company for AC is one of the financiers of the US/HP merger...how much cash do you think a recently-bankrupt airline has?

Quoting HunUtazo (Reply 3):
UAL will be merged into CAL

The Board Member speaks...  Yeah sure

Quoting BRAVO7E7 (Reply 6):
It would be nice if you could give some substantiation, rather than just make statements like these.

Agree...as stated earlier, go online and look at Annual Reports, and then make informed opinions. Otherwise, note that what you state is your opinion only (as many of you do...).
 
deltaguy767
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 4:30 am

Quoting BRAVO7E7 (Reply 6):
It would be nice if you could give some substantiation, rather than just make statements like these. Why do you think these things are gonna happen, specifically for UA?

Bravo7E7,
United has made some fatal mistakes in A) keeping company morale up hence the Pension Dump,and B) without the help of some judges would be in Chapter 7 alongside US. Now even with this restructure plan that United claims that it is working on while under the safety net of BK I hhave my doubts that they will be able to survive. Now I know that many UA and other Airline employees are members on this website, now I have looked at the financial situations of DL,NW,CO,and AA (annual reports) and have based my comments on those reports, my overall view of the industry, fuel prices, and the current state of the United States Economy. Now to all who have taken the time to respond I thank you and for all employees of the "Legacy Carriers" I wish you all the best of luck for your respective companies and I hope that they weather this storm.

Sincerely from BDL,
DeltaGuy767
A Good Landing is one you walk away from!
 
Ken777
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 6:46 am

I don't think that financial results are going to help in guessing what is going to happen in the next 5 - 10 years.

It certainly doesn't help us guess the future price of oil - is it heading north or south? Will it return to the high $30s/low $40s, or will it break $100? This is going to have a huge impact on what happens in the future - far more an impact than the quality of management. Unfortunately the US government has stirred up a mess in the Middle East as far as the price of oil goes and I don't think they can fix it.

Pension programs are another big issue. The days of the company paying very generous pensions are gone and, if necessary, I see Ch 11 as how the airlines will change their programs. Unions might be wise to work out new 401 plans for new employees and a transfer program for existing employees, who will have both 401Ks and traditional programs, based on length of service and a reduced payment schedule for the majors. Otherwise it's Ch 11.

Medical costs are going to the another major factor as the US has the most expensive, screwed program I know of. I'm a very small businessman and medical insurance for my wife and myself costs $1,000 per month, with no hope in sight. It's hard on me, it's hard on the airlines and other major companies. It's a real killer for GM - costing them billions. Unfortunately our Administration is more worried about Social Security changes that will take care pr problems 30 years down the road than the are about today's medical crisis. Failure to address this issue cal also lead to Ch 11.

Considering these factors makes it hard to guess the future. My best guess is that UA will exit Ch 11 with a cost structure that will push others into Ch 11. I believe the burden of the cost of oil will force airlines to move to the most economical aircraft available, and that they will micro manage which planes are used on each route each day. Those than can't manage that micromanagement very well will go under. For flight and cabin crew I believe that there will be a need to be certified on more than one plane in order to meet the needs of balancing the revenues being generated by a flight on a specific day with the best plane to make the most money from that flight.

I also see some of the start up LCCs moving into a period of higher cost factors, especially maintenance, and their advantage over the majors being reduced - especially if they have employee problems.

The other unknown is the potential for a terrorist attack, or multiple atacks, to dramatically change the landscape.

All I really know about the next 5 - 10 years is that it will be very difficult for the airlines and, unfortunately, the pax are going to continue to take the brunt of cost cutting.
 
burnsie28
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 7:54 am

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
B6,WN,FL,F9: These airlines are all in a good financial situation and will have no problems in staying alive with the possible exception of FL.

F9 continues to lose money, B6 is seeing their profits drop dramatically, WN is doing fine, and FL is a tough call, they are going into markets in which they dont have the financials to compete with the big boys (despite losing money, they have more then FL) they also seem to be over-expanding, they had a niche, now they are leaving it, its up in the air with them.

Here are my thoughts:

UA: Not doing what they can, everytime a restructure deadline comes, they always ask for an extension, which to me is saying they are just milking the benefits of bankruptcy and not doing anything, they continue to lose record amounts, to me UA unless a dramitic miracle happens, they will unfortunately be the one to go down.

US: Now that they are "apparently" merging with HP, this could be another interesting move, HP does well, but the debt by obtaining US is rather large for their small company. A merger is costly and could cost them more the just money, if thats the case UA will survive and so will everyone. However, if played right, I think US/HP will stay.

NW: Having problems now, but are not losing a horrible amount of money like some of its competitors. Bankruptcy ends up costing you more in the long run, if they get the labor solved they will be fine, however, I just wish they would add some service. Even the others are better then NW right now, with that they will avoid BK if they solve labor in a timely manner and get close to what they want. If they do that they will return to one of the more better off airlines.

CO: Doing well, but one profit in the busiest part of the year can be misleading, I dont think they will file BK, but its too hard to say what they will do. It will take a couple more quarters to find out in which direction they will end up. A merger with UA would kill 2 birds with one stone, UA debt is out of hand and nothing fits, the only thing would be hubs, fleet wise and such, they dont match one another too well, and heaven forbid CO operates an Airbus!!!

AA: Again like CO, they have stayed quiet but will stay out of BK. They have a large sized operation thats doing farely well, like NW though, depending on how long they keep those MD-80, have quite the financial debt ahead. Otherwise they will be fine.

DL: Where to begin with Delta, they dont seem to find anything that works well the Simplifares have not shown to put them financially better and so fourth. Likely BK filing, hopefully the correct restructuring but a drop in size by quite a bit, eleminating un-needed things.
 
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STT757
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:11 am

Quoting LawnDart (Reply 7):
CO has two hubs...EWR and IAH...EWR is expensive and congested, and IAH is a little too far south to be anything more than an effective southern-tier and -Mexico link. As far as staying in the black...not at $65 a barrel oil they won't.

EWR and Houston are two excellent places to have your two main hubs, there was an interesting article last week in USA Today about Cities and their respective corporate presence. The focus of the article was about Omaha Nebraska but it had a great chart illustrating US Cities with the largest number of Fortune 500 Companies.

The largest City being NYC with around 43 Fortune 500 Companies, the Second largest Corporate City was Houston Texas with 20+ Fortune 500 Companies. Again having you two largest hubs in the two largest Corporate markets in the US is a huge advantage, Wall Street Investment Firms (NYC) pharmaceuticals (NJ) and Energy (Houston) are doing quite well in the current economy.
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CTHEWORLD
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:20 am

Quoting HunUtazo (Reply 3):
UAL will be merged into CAL

It's already happening.

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 10):
UA: Not doing what they can, everytime a restructure deadline comes, they always ask for an extension, which to me is saying they are just milking the benefits of bankruptcy and not doing anything, they continue to lose record amounts, to me UA unless a dramitic miracle happens, they will unfortunately be the one to go down.

1) It was the creditor committee, not UAL that requested the last extension
2) Not doing anything? They have renegotiated all of their CBAs, all of their A/C leases, dumped their bonds and shed BILLIONS in cost structure. I suppose this all happens magically without anyone trying?
3) Check your facts, they, along with CO and AA were the only majors to have an operating profit last quarter, their massive "loss" was a one time write off for items covered under the BK. You say "UA debt is out of hand", are you kidding me? They have restructered most of their debt and will emerge from Ch.11 with a debt structure much lower than their competitors. Also, I hate to break it to you, NW is losing a $hit load of money, what financial pages are you reading???

[Edited 2005-08-15 01:24:07]
 
B4REAL
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:43 am

Quoting HunUtazo (Reply 3):
UAL will be merged into CAL

Explain a little more of this...

I see what you are saying, but need some sources or such. UA has a lot of debt, and CO couldn't really afford it if you ask me.

A lot would change there. I think a unified hub network would have LAX/SFO/DEN/ORD/IAH/EWR/GUM/NRT. Not sure about IAD or CLE, I think they'd go by the wayside. That's a big airline to be from what CO is now.
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
 
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STT757
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:48 am

Here's my take,

UAL will get merged into CO, either directly or via various bankruptcy proceedings/transactions.

The financing will come from groups such as Boeing, GE, various existing UAL creditors and possibly a private investment group. The folks in Houston will run the combined companies, Gordon Bethune will take the helm at UAL and over a 2-3 year period prepare UAL and it's employees for the merger. Gordon will run UAL as CEO for a period of 2-3 years untill the full merger is complete, he will then take a seat on the new airline's board of directors if possible (see Bonderman dispute).

There's alot of possibilities of a combined CO+UAL, the two airlines may continue to exist with CO taking over most of the International operations aswell as the EWR, ORD, IAH, SFO and DEN hubs. United could be kept and transformed into a economy+ Domestic airline (see Song, B6) with operations based out of IAD, JFK, CLE and LAX.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
B4REAL
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 8:53 am

Don't get me wrong, this will be the time to pick up an airline on the cheap. HP did it with US. Someone will get an ATL hub, NW/UA may have the same fate.

It is just that the statement above was really light in justification  Smile
B4REAL, spelled like it sounds
 
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mariner
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:08 am

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 10):
Having problems now, but are not losing a horrible amount of money like some of its competitors.

The analysts estimates are for NW to lose over $14 per share this financial year.

You don't think that is a horrible amount of money?

 confused 

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:13 am

Quoting CTHEWORLD (Reply 12):
Quoting HunUtazo (Reply 3):
UAL will be merged into CAL

It's already happening.

It is? What kind of proof can you offer? Or are you basing it on the quote that Bethune expressed interest in it at one point a few years ago?

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
UA:Will be most likely be gobbled up by another airline or collapse within the next five years. Or the SEC/DOJ will allow US/UA to merge and save each other.
US: As an analyst of the airline industry told me, "The government is giving USAIR enough crumbs to prolong its death" US will either fail within the next year to two years or its fate will be as I mentioned above.

You've heard of the HP/US merger....right? If so...why did you post this??  scratchchin 
And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
jmc1975
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 9:37 am

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
US: As an analyst of the airline industry told me, "The government is giving USAIR enough crumbs to prolong its death" US will either fail within the next year to two years or its fate will be as I mentioned above.

The merger with HP automatically makes that a false assumption.

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 10):
A merger with UA would kill 2 birds with one stone, UA debt is out of hand and nothing fits, the only thing would be hubs, fleet wise and such, they dont match one another too well, and heaven forbid CO operates an Airbus!!!



Quoting StevenUhl777 (Reply 17):
Quoting CTHEWORLD (Reply 12):
Quoting HunUtazo (Reply 3):
UAL will be merged into CAL

It's already happening.

It is? What kind of proof can you offer? Or are you basing it on the quote that Bethune expressed interest in it at one point a few years ago?

This could be pulled off if Gordon Bethune headed it up and handled it much like the HP/US merger. The key would be outside investors, primarily Boeing. If Boeing invested $2B+ in the merger on the condition the combined carrier would order a large number (200+) of 773ER, 772LR, 787 and 737NG (to replace UA A32X) over several years, it could be benefical for all parties involved. It would ensure the security of both UA and CO as well as Boeing for a long time to come.
.......
 
deltaguy767
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 10:11 am

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 18):
The merger with HP automatically makes that a false assumption.

My apologies I forgot that HP was an airline. Just kidding, but seriously I forgot that US/HP were merging. so here is my revised US prediction

US: The US/HP merger will slow US's decline and with an expanded network of routes out West, this airline could blossom into something. However due to the massive debt pile that US has this could be a considerable hurdle for this fledgling airline to overcome.

Oh and I almost forgot FlyI ghost  may they rest in peace.

From BDL,
DeltaGuy767
A Good Landing is one you walk away from!
 
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STT757
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 10:48 am

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 18):
The key would be outside investors, primarily Boeing. If Boeing invested $2B+ in the merger on the condition the combined carrier would order a large number (200+) of 773ER, 772LR, 787 and 737NG (to replace UA A32X) over several years, it could be benefical for all parties involved. It would ensure the security of both UA and CO as well as Boeing for a long time to come.

Boeing and GE would generate alot of business for their 747ADV, 777-300ER, 777-200LR, 787, 737NG lines.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
CTHEWORLD
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 10:50 am

Quoting StevenUhl777 (Reply 17):
It is? What kind of proof can you offer?

Goings on that those who know are not at liberty to speak about.
 
jmc1975
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 3:08 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 20):
Boeing and GE would generate alot of business for their 747ADV, 777-300ER, 777-200LR, 787, 737NG lines.

Is the 747ADV really that necessary for UA/CO? Wouldn't potentially new long-range nonstops (i.e. SGN-SFO, SIN-SFO, SIN-ORD, BKK-ORD, TPE-SFO, TPE-LAX, ICN-ORD) be best served with the 772LR or 787, bypassing HKG and NRT and possibly eliminating them as bases? There's money to be saved, you know.

-Dutch Uncle

[Edited 2005-08-15 08:28:36]
.......
 
HunUtazo
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 3:29 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
Here's my take,

UAL will get merged into CO, either directly or via various bankruptcy proceedings/transactions.

The financing will come from groups such as Boeing, GE, various existing UAL creditors and possibly a private investment group.

correct

only the merge happens much sooner, but the, Boeing, GE, Morgan and Prudential is correct and Bethune basically represents the major creditors and what was decided long ago...

Then:

AMR and NWAC

and LUV with pieces of DAL..

Ticket prices will be going up and lccs will be coming down.

Watch

Wait

and

Listen

Very sooon now....
dude
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Mon Aug 15, 2005 11:41 pm

Quoting HunUtazo (Reply 23):
AMR and NWAC

I still fail to see what these two would gain by merging. You have 4 hubs basically in the same midwest region (MSP, ORD, DTW, STL) and 2 in the south
(MEM and DFW) not to mention MEM and STL close together. Assuming MEM and STL would shut down, you still have the 3 midwest hubs of MSP, ORD and DTW to deal with. Not to mention the fact that both airlines fleets are very different (NW has lots of airbuses and CRJ's; AA has mainly boeing and ERJ's)
I'm just not buying it unless someone can come up with a good reason that I am overlooking.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 14):
Here's my take,

UAL will get merged into CO, either directly or via various bankruptcy proceedings/transactions

doesn't NW have the power to veto any kind of merger or acquisition involving CO?
 
CIDFlyer
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Tue Aug 16, 2005 1:32 am

someone in a previous thread suggested that NW should get hooked up in the HP/US deal. What would anyone's thoughts be on that? Sounds kind of intriguing, it would give them a good midwest presence with hubs in MSP and DTW, balanced out with a strong east coast presence through CLT and PHL and on the west coast coast with PHX and LAS. Also, fleet type is also rather similar with lots of airbuses....Of course NW has to weather their current labor issues storm...
 
freedom4all
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Tue Aug 16, 2005 1:48 am

With the raising cost of oil per barrel, going up dollars a day I think the future of every airline all over the world is in question, the oil isn't going to last forever, where are we going to be in 5, 10 years from now, when oil is well over $100.00US a barrel, people are going to have a hard time filling there 4 cylinder car to get to work, let alone have a enough money to cover a plane ticket. Sorry if I come off being dramatic. But the truth is the truth.
long live the 747!
 
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STT757
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Tue Aug 16, 2005 7:11 am

Quoting Jmc1975 (Reply 22):
Is the 747ADV really that necessary for UA/CO? Wouldn't potentially new long-range nonstops (i.e. SGN-SFO, SIN-SFO, SIN-ORD, BKK-ORD, TPE-SFO, TPE-LAX, ICN-ORD) be best served with the 772LR or 787, bypassing HKG and NRT and possibly eliminating them as bases?

The 787 and 777-200LR have tremendous potential with a combined CO/UAL, the 787 could open up Pacific markets directly from SFO without the stop in Tokyo or another airport like Nagoya. The 777-200LR could operate on routes from EWR and ORD to India and China, it also could connect SFO and the Bay area tech community with India.

Depending on Boeing and GE they would go with either the 747ADV and or 777-300ER as a 747-400 replacement. There's a place for the 747ADV in a combined CO/UAL, although not in the same large numbers as the current 747-400 fleet of UAL. Perhaps 12-15 747ADV aircraft for routes such as;

EWR-TLV, EWR-LHR, SFO-NRT, LAX-SYD, IAH-LGW.

The 777-300ER could take over other routes such as LAX-NRT, HNL-NRT.

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 24):
doesn't NW have the power to veto any kind of merger or acquisition involving CO?

Not if CO is the one doing the acquiring.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
jmc1975
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Tue Aug 16, 2005 9:59 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 27):
Depending on Boeing and GE they would go with either the 747ADV and or 777-300ER as a 747-400 replacement. There's a place for the 747ADV in a combined CO/UAL, although not in the same large numbers as the current 747-400 fleet of UAL. Perhaps 12-15 747ADV aircraft for routes such as;

EWR-TLV, EWR-LHR, SFO-NRT, LAX-SYD, IAH-LGW.

As for the 747-400 replacement, I guess the question now is the CASM difference between the 777-300ER and the 747ADV. A fleet of 12-15 aircraft would be expensive to operate at an expense-sensitive entity like UA/CO. Besides, the 777-300ER has cockpit commonality with the other 777s in the fleet. Just my two cents (or one pence).
.......
 
KUGN
Posts: 606
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Tue Aug 16, 2005 10:48 am

Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
Here are my opinions based upon current fuel trends and financial stability.



Quoting DeltaGuy767 (Thread starter):
AA: I really despise this airline for a number of reasons and I am completely surprised that they

So what should we take? Was your take based on trends & financial stability, or based on personal biases?
 
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STT757
Posts: 13200
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RE: The Future Of The US Airline Industry

Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:53 am

Forbes: "Airline Mergers to Watch".

"Here, then, are the combinations predicted by Cordle and our other experts:

UAL and Continental Airlines - This would probably be the best match of all the major U.S. carriers. UAL, unable to get its bankruptcy reorganization plan approved so far, would make a natural fit with Continental. The latter would bring strong Latin American and U.S. East Coast routes to United's strong domestic U.S. and Asia Pacific route system.

With Continental, United would be more likely to secure the $1.5 billion to $2 billion in exit financing the airline has been so far unable to raise. Continental is arguably the best managed of the major carriers, with the possible exception of AMR (nyse: AMR - news - people ), the parent of American Airlines.

One caveat: Current UAL Chief Executive Glenn Tilton would be out of a job, since Continental management would most likely want to run the airline."

http://www.forbes.com/services/2005/...0816airlines.html?partner=yahootix
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757

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