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STT757
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Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:50 am

Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
calpilot
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 3:59 am

Great!!! My pay goes down again.. "d'oh"
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:11 am

CO/UAL - holy smokes I hope not.

I'd hate to see CO go down the crapper absorbing all the mess at UA - which would include lousy cabin service, lousy cutomer service, lousy airport delays at ORD and SFO, etc . . . .

What would CO do with all those Airbii??

I would like to see a CO 744 though  biggrin 
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
juventus
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:14 am

-NW and DL? Who will be doing the buying on that one?
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:17 am

Though Forbes is a well respoected bsuiness magazine, I would be utterly shocked at any of the above, as they all involve complete opposite fleets ,and NWa with either AA or DL involves alot of overlap. The lack of overlap is what really helped at US/ HP merger. I know the mergers discussion on this board are approaching the "NW DC-9 replacement" status But i think it is a safe bet to assume there would be some ( at least 50%-75%) fleet commonality. While alot of people say AK will remain independant, they are a prime fit for an airline like CO.

I think a greater benefit would be to take 1 legacy and chop it up to "feed amongst the pack" than to have mergers that woudl waste billions in overlap and consolidation costs. Limit wasted resources and enhance profitability.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
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N328KF
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:18 am

Quoting Juventus (Reply 3):
-NW and DL? Who will be doing the buying on that one?

They both will...they will both buy the farm together.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
akelley728
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:26 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 5):
They both will...they will both buy the farm together.

 bigthumbsup 
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:33 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 4):
While alot of people say AK will remain independant, they are a prime fit for an airline like CO.

I don't think Air Asia ( AK ) is going to present any issues for CO    And AS will remain independent - although I agree - it would be a great compliment to CO. As they already code share on some flights, and miles may earned on AS for CO and CO for AS, neither has anything to gain I believe.

[Edited 2005-08-16 21:34:46]
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
Lemurs
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:34 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 4):
While alot of people say AK will remain independant, they are a prime fit for an airline like CO

I assume you meant AS? If so, I agree. I just don't think AS is interested at all, and I'm not sure how interested CO would be. Is better west coast coverage, and the ability to open new service to Asia with 767/787's instead of 777's really what they want or need? It's a good idea in an expanding market, but right now it would just be added risk, I think.
There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those who understand binary, and those that don't.
 
RobertS975
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:36 am

Quoting Juventus (Reply 3):
-NW and DL? Who will be doing the buying on that one?

AF/KL would be the moneybags for that one.
 
juventus
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:37 am

HAHAHA, good one N328KF. I agree with you, If NW or DL absorb the other's debts, it could get ugly
 
PVD757
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:40 am

Quoting STT757 (Thread starter):
CO/UAL

AA/DL or AA/NWA

NWA/DL or NWA/AA

CO/UAL - no way! fleets too uncommon, CLE/ORD too close.

AA/DL - fleet wise could work (except for the 757 engines), but the DOJ would hack up Florida. these two airlines seem to be going differant directions right now too.

NWA/DL: ummm no. I don't know where to begin - fleet, hubs, route structure. blah, no thanks!

NWA/AA: about the same as NWA/DL.

IMO, NW is the least likely to merge with anyone. AA and DL COULD potentially match up well with AS, if anything. DH and NK could link or NK could join the merged US/HP. DL and CO is a long shot at best with CVG/CLE and fleet mix issues.

Good try Forbes!
 
7e72004
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:42 am

I think Frontier and Independence Air should merge...it would be a good match in my opinion. Frontier has the western hub and Independence has the eastern hub. It would be like the US/HP merger, except on a smaller scale.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
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N328KF
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:46 am

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 12):
I think Frontier and Independence Air should merge...it would be a good match in my opinion. Frontier has the western hub and Independence has the eastern hub. It would be like the US/HP merger, except on a smaller scale.

Why would you ruin a perfectly good airline in F9 in that manner?
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
7e72004
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:47 am

How do you know the airline would be ruined? If things are set up "corrrectly," i.e. financing, etc...then a pretty good airline could come out of it.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
akelley728
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:49 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 4):
I think a greater benefit would be to take 1 legacy and chop it up to "feed amongst the pack" than to have mergers that woudl waste billions in overlap and consolidation costs. Limit wasted resources and enhance profitability.

I agree completely. I would say that DL is probably the best one to split up among CO/NW and even AA.

CO - Gets 764s, 763s (GE ones), and 733/738s, and maybe 777s.
NW - Gets 763s (PW ones), 752s, and maybe MD88s.
AW - Maybe 777s, MD-88s, or 763s (GE).

CO - SLC
AA - JFK
NW - ATL
(CVG would be gone)
 
Tornado82
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:50 am

Quoting Juventus (Reply 3):
-NW and DL? Who will be doing the buying on that one?

Creditors, in bankrupcy court after the Ch 7... if they went through with that mess.

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 12):
think Frontier and Independence Air should merge...it would be a good match in my opinion. Frontier has the western hub and Independence has the eastern hub.

Why not just wait until FlyI Dies (HA! I'm a poet) when the price will be even cheaper than it is now. But even then, what does FlyI actually "own" besides gates @ IAD? Not the CRJ's (who'd want 'em anyways), and they run @ IAD, so no slots at DCA, so what good is this really?

CO/AS would be the only one I see that makes sense. For God's sake I hope my favorite airline wouldn't merge with the mess @ UA. I would have rather seen CO buy US than touch UA.
 
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mariner
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:52 am

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 14):
How do you know the airline would be ruined?

Sorry, but N328KF is exactly right. Independence is up to it's eyeballs in debt and losing millions.

It would be a horrendous liablity for a merger with any other carrier.

cheers

mariner
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commavia
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:52 am

This is kind of in the same vain as all the other "experts" and all the other lovely commentary by the media when they try to pretend that they have a clue about the airline industry. Honestly -- most people on A.net could probably make a far more educated guess about the state of the industry and/or any possible future airline mergers than just about anyone at Forbes or any other publication (not that I am knocking Forbes -- it is a very respected and distinguished publication).

I love this:

[UA + CO] would probably be the best match of all the major U.S. carriers.

Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)? Besides, why on earth would profitable CO ever want to waste their time, money and resources on a bankrupt UA?

Executives at American Airlines parent AMR have no desire to jump into the merger game, given the carrier's disastrous merger with TWA, which it purchased and liquidated. The experience was a major blow to the egos of American Airlines management and workers, many of whom lost their jobs.

I wouldn't exactly call the AA-TW merger a "disaster." The world around the merger, yes -- a "disaster" -- no argument. But, IMO, the actual AA-TW integration was one of the smoothest in airline history. There was some drama because TW people lost their jobs, but there wasn't thousands of bags piled up in STL, there weren't catering carts with no planes to fit into, there weren't crews lost in translation with no idea what plane to go to. All of the hallmarks of earlier, universally regarded "disaster" airline integrations generally didn't apply here. I'd say it went pretty well, but maybe that's just me.

Uh, you can say that again. AA announcing a merger would be promptly followed by AA's unions burning down their headquarters. Not gonna happen. AA doesn't need NW, its Airbus fleet or ancient DC9s, its horrible labor relations, or its hubs that all overlap with AA's. Asia is not worth all that, plus NW's enormous debt load.

Northwest would bring U.S. upper-Midwest and Asian routes; Delta has its strong Atlanta hub and the lucrative shuttle between Boston, New York City and Washington, D.C.

This is the only hypothetical merger scenario that he raises that even makes slight sense -- DL and NW have highly complimentary route networks with virtually no overlap and would greatly expand each other's reach. The synergies, however, stop there, but the problems don't. DL is almost completely non-union, NW is among the most heavily unionized airlines in the U.S. DL has a predominantly Boeing fleet, with not a single Airbus, NW has a mostly Airbus fleet.

Stranger things have happened, but I really think journalists should stay out of the airline industry projecting game.
 
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N328KF
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:58 am

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 14):
How do you know the airline would be ruined? If things are set up "corrrectly," i.e. financing, etc...then a pretty good airline could come out of it.

This is the same mentality that brought us into this mess. It does not address the fundamental issue of overcapacity.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 18):
Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)? Besides, why on earth would profitable CO ever want to waste their time, money and resources on a bankrupt UA?

UA is a "heavily Airbus" airline? Out of 416 aircraft (airfleets.net), 104 of them are A32x series aircraft. That's 25%.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
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OzarkD9S
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:00 am

Here we are chopping up Delta and the thread I started on the very same subject was deleted and I was flamed from all sides for suggesting it.

The hypocrisy on this forum never ceases to amaze me.
Coast to Coast and Border to Border, Ozark Flies YOUR Way!
 
7e72004
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:01 am

I hope you are not referring to my mentality N328KF...as i would not appreciate an insult like that.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
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STT757
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:09 am

Quoting PVD757 (Reply 11):
CO/UAL - no way! fleets too uncommon, CLE/ORD too close



Quoting Commavia (Reply 18):
Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)? Besides, why on earth would profitable CO ever want to waste their time, money and resources on a bankrupt UA?

Who says they would not consolidate operations, ORD and EWR obviously take precedent over CLE and IAD. Also long rumored to be heavily involved with the CO/UAL deal is Boeing and GE, they would rationalize the fleet to a managable level of types. They could live with a 757/767 and 777 fleet with two engine types, the biggest question is the narrowbody fleet (A319/20s).

Future orders for more 777s (200LR, 300ER) as well as more 787s would be involved, possibly even some 747ADV should Boeing decide to launch the program and Boeing and GE give CO/UAL a great deal to be a North American launch customer to partly replace UAL's 747-400s.
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dutchjet
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:11 am

One point to consider, it there was a merger (doesnt matter which two airlines, pick any two) of two legacy carriers, the remaining carriers would quickly look for partners as well......the logic would be that the remaining carriers would be unable to compete with the merged mega carrier and they too would have to find merger partners as well. Thus, if AA and NW annouced a merger, CO, DL, CO, US/HP, and even independent minded AS would start pairing off.

Will this happen? I really dont think so. We have heard about several of these combinations before and there is a variety of reasons why most, in the long run, do not make much sense. Aside from operational issues such as divergent fleets and hub rationalization, the biggest problem with airline mergers in the past has been the intergration of airline employees and dealing with unions and seniority issues......we are talking about huge airlines in this case (not a big airline taking over a smaller carrier) which makes the situation even more difficult. Also, the legacy carriers are a financial mess: CO and AA are in better shape than the others, but neither is in good financial condition and even AA and CO needs many profitable quarters to get their balance sheets back to an acceptable level, UA is still trying to figure out how to get out of bankruptcy, DL seems to be headed to bankruptcy court, NW is facing a major labor problem, and AS is having its own opeational and labor issues......its not a pretty picture. I dont see mergers as an answer.....instead, current problems would be compounded with more problems.

The combination that makes the most sense is CO and UA...and I, for one, really do not see CO merging with UA and then attempting to solve all of the problems that UA cannot seem to solve on their own with the benefit of the protection of the bankruptcy court.

I really do hope that all of the airlines can survive and prosper, but I still think that we will see one major US carrier fail in the near term future (I dont want to predict which one)....the remaining carriers will directly and indirectly benefit for that happening. Time will tell.
 
7e72004
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:11 am

Obviously, if UA/CO ever did happen, CLE would probably be taken off the "hub" status...
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
isitsafenow
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:11 am

The AA/NW makes the most sense. AA would shuffle the ORD hub over to DTW. You forgot AA wanted to buy NW around 2000 and close the ORD operation and move it to Detroit. AA said they would if the merger went through back then.
This would give AA a real strong Asia presence. Something they dearly want.
Why?
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ that's why!
Close the MSP maintenance base because they have a 757 base in Tulsa and the DC 9 will be phased out. Use the MCI base more because it is almost tax free as far as Missouri and Kansas City, MO is concerned and put your Em190 or Bombardier C jets at MCI for serious work. They can move the 747's to MCI or phase them out and go with more 777 and 787's.
It might happen because AA won't make the same mistakes from the TWA merger. They wised up.
The people at FORBES are NOT stupid. They are wired in at the top rung of corporations. When they speak, don't blow it off. Digest it.
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invicta
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:12 am

Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)? Besides, why on earth would profitable CO ever want to waste their time, money and resources on a bankrupt UA?

It makes a lot of sense to me. If Boeing and GE provided significant funding to get the CO/UAL merger through they would stand to gain by wiping out an Airbus customer. The same might be true for a DL/NW merger. In that case Airbus may provide funding that would secure that company as a solid Airbus customer in the future.
 
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N328KF
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:15 am

Quoting 7E72004 (Reply 21):
I hope you are not referring to my mentality N328KF...as i would not appreciate an insult like that.

It's not an insult. But you suggested that the answer to DH's problems was to throw more money into the black hole. The airline industry is a great example of where Corporate Darwinism has not been allowed to properly bear fruit.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
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mariner
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:15 am

Quoting Invicta (Reply 26):
If Boeing and GE provided significant funding to get the CO/UAL merger through they would stand to gain by wiping out an Airbus customer.

Why would GE want to wipe out an Airbus customer and what would they stand to gain?

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
deltaguy767
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:17 am

Hello All,
Here is my take on the mergers listed above.
CO/UA: No way, CO wouldn't want all of UA's debt and especially those Airbii. But it could prove lucrative with a stronger CO Asian presence and those slots to LHR,DCA,LGA,JFK, as well as the hubs in California and DEN. However the inheritance of ORD and IAD would be too close to CO's current hubs in CLE and EWR.
AA/DL: Fleet commonality is good except for the A300 and some engine differences here and there. Hub structure would be good with DL joining forces with AA at JFK,DL's good SLC outpost, and the two airlines basicially controlling over 50% of the market into Florida would bring something to the DOJ. However due to the proximity of CVG/ORD would bring a problem. Also AA wouldn't want DL's debt nor would the DOJ allow this to happen as the new entity would be the largest airline by a clear margin.
AA/NWA or DL/NWA: Fleet doesn't match up, hub structure is poor, and debt would be very high. This merger shouldn't be even discussed.
Now here's some pairs I think could show up in the future based on hub structure,fleet commonality,and current financial position.
CO/DL
UA/NW
CO/AS

From BDL,
DeltaGuy767
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commavia
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:21 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 19):
UA is a "heavily Airbus" airline? Out of 416 aircraft (airfleets.net), 104 of them are A32x series aircraft. That's 25%.

They're a h*ll of a lot more "heavily Airbus" than CO, which hasn't operated a single Airbus aircraft in over ten years.

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 25):
AA would shuffle the ORD hub over to DTW.

Huh?

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 25):
You forgot AA wanted to buy NW around 2000 and close the ORD operation and move it to Detroit. AA said they would if the merger went through back then.

When did AA ever say they would leave ORD in favor of DTW and/or MSP?
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:21 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 18):
DL is almost completely non-union, NW is among the most heavily unionized airlines in the U.S.

I wouldn't say that...the only union groups at NW are the Pilots (ALPA), Agents and Clerks (IAM), Equipment Service Employees and Stock Clerks (IAM), Flight Attendants (PFAA), and Mechanics and Related Employees (AMFA)

Quoting N328KF (Reply 19):
Out of 416 aircraft (airfleets.net), 104 of them are A32x series aircraft. That's 25%.

Your facts are off. United operates 152 Airbus aircraft, which makes them the world's third largest operator of Airbus equipment, behind only Air France/KLM (170) and Northwest Airlines (169), out of their 493 aircraft. 152/493 is slightly over 30%.

[Edited 2005-08-16 22:23:06]
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eclipseflight7
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:24 am

I like how the guy bases these mergers solely on route authorities. He's using 40 year old ideals to base them off of. Why would Delta give a toss about Northwest's Far East routes? Delta isn't doing too well, but neither is Northwest, and they're the ones with the routes to China and Japan.

Nobody is going to want to merge with Northwest. Northwests short-haul routes are operated almost exclusivly by DC-9's, and nobody in the industry wants to "add" DC-9's to their fleet.
Holy sh*ts and burritos.
 
invicta
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:30 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 28):
Why would GE want to wipe out an Airbus customer and what would they stand to gain?

You are right, I don't suppose they would, but the point I was trying to make is the suppliers may want to fund a merger where they would have a new customer rather than just consolidating their existing customers.
 
SRT75
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:35 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 4):
The lack of overlap is what really helped at US/ HP merger.

I think it's a little too early to call HP/US a success. Time will tell.

Quoting Invicta (Reply 26):
Are they kidding? A heavily Airbus airline merging with an all-Boeing airline, an airline with overlapping hubs (ORD/CLE and IAD/EWR)?

The Boeing/Airbus issue is overrated. When TW and AA merged TW employees could not fly on AA equipment until they were re-trained. Simply because two airlines operate the same equipment does NOT mean seemless integration.

Plus, merger = cutting the fat. Easy way to quickly eliminate unwanted equipment (say NW's DC-9s), unwanted "hubs" (CLE/CVG), and unwanted routes. The "purchasing" airline may view the purchase price as worth one aspect of the "purchased" ariline (say NW's Asia routes and gate space for AA), that it may be worth their while to purchase the crippled airline at a bargain basement price solely for this ONE asset, and full intention to let the rest of the purchased airline cease to exist.
 
hoya
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:39 am

About CO/UA, even Bethune stated in the past that these two would be a good match. ORD and CLE being too close? Well it's obvious in a merger fleets and routes would be cut, and I'm sure CO/UA would rather keep ORD and not CLE. Regarding aircraft, the fleets would be large enough to have economy of scales, and could be dedicated to specific hubs, such as what AA has done with its MD80s and 737s.

UA and CO complement each other pretty well. UA has a strong domestic network, particularly in the West, and strong Asian network. Continental has a strong presence on the east coast, strong in Europe and Latin America. Seriously, the writer of the article asked many experts, people who make business decisions in this industry. We are just, for the most part, enthusiasts, and what seems like a bad idea to us may be in reality a good one, and vice versa. Remember a year ago how many, many people here thought the Independence Air experiment was a great idea?
Hoya Saxa!!
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:45 am

Lets be fair and chop up each legacy.....

Northwest

DTW.....DL or CO would drop CVG/CLE in a heartbeat for DTW, if DL could afford it, NK could also increase
MSP.... not sure Wn would likely start service, maybe Sun Country would become the next Frontier
MEM.... Would become more like PIT

Continental

EWR.... Probably wouldnt remain a hub like CO has it, someone could go with EWR like Dl has done with JFK

CLE... would become like PIT

IAH...NW could drop MEM for IAH... or a Mid america hub for US/HP


Delta

ATL
NW would drop MEM for ATL, CO could also do alot
FL large build up

CVG... would become like PIT

SLC... Possible AS minihub like PDX

JFK ... AA major expansion esp INTL



United

ORD
AA expansion, probably not much else

IAD...allows DH to stay alive, otherwise B6 would set up shop like BOS

DEN.. Frontier thrives

SFO... CO/AA/DL/NW Pacific Gateway..no hub


American

JFK... DL Expands gateway

ORD... UA expands

DFW... NW or HP/US mid america hub ...maybe DL would move back..lol.

MIA...someone big at FLL now (US/B6/DL/NK) would amke a carribean focus operation with moderate feed, nothing like current hub

SJU... US/HP or maybe NK could pick up some commuter routes and expand there.


Aircraft are all pretty obvious that they would be divided up based on commonality to existing fleets. Like obviously 764's would stay between CO and DL....A319/20.. NW/US/UA.... 738's CO/DL/AA....etc


In the end... possibilities are endless... but chopping a legacy into peices is ultimately less costly and increases strengthens the survivors. Like survival of the fittest, the weak must fall from time to time, howeever, weak does not necessarily mean the biggest money looser, but rather poor management or facilites as well. With everyone giving DL last rights calling for liquidation,Though Ch 11 is likely (and possibly necessary) I cant help but think their management has done more than any other airline to try and adapt to the industry changes. UA has done nothing but bleed money over 2 years and created Ted.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:49 am

Quoting SRT75 (Reply 34):
I think it's a little too early to call HP/US a success.

Though look how quick and painlessly they cleared the hurdles compared to the UA/US merger which ended up costing both company tens of millions of dollars. All that overlap, monopoly talks, DCair creation etc. The more overlap the more wasted money and resources. and that combo... outside of AS has less overlap than any other merger that would happen among the majors.
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
airknight
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:49 am

my head is hurting from reading these merger threads, its like peter max all over again. Focusing on the business side of things, you merge in order to improve the overall financial position of the newly combined firm. With the exception of CO, the other legacies AA, UA, DL, NW are all in a heap of financial trouble. what do you get when you combine 2 sick airlines????

1 very large sick airline!!!!!

If anything, these troubled airlines need to cut back on non-profitable routes, which unfortunately means loss of jobs, etc. but the way they're going now, they might be out of business all together and everyone loses their job. Get healthy (hopefully oil prices come down soon) and then take it from there.

my 7 cents, airknight
 
commavia
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:52 am

Quoting Airknight (Reply 38):
With the exception of CO, the other legacies AA, UA, DL, NW are all in a heap of financial trouble.

IMO, AA is at least as well off as CO financially.
 
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STT757
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:55 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 28):
Why would GE want to wipe out an Airbus customer and what would they stand to gain?

GE would love to "create" a large customer for the 787, 777-200LR, 777-300ER and perhaps the 747ADV (all GE powered).

The Airbus issue is outside of that.
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STT757
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:56 am

CO/UAL Domestic hubs:

EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN, SFO

Focus Cities:

LAX, IAD
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airknight
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:58 am

[quote=Commavia,reply=39][IMO, AA is at least as well off as CO financially.]

Wasn't AA close to declaring bankruptcy post 9/11?
 
Indy
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 5:58 am

Quoting STT757 (Thread starter):
NWA/DL

Why do people think (not refering to you in this case STT757) that if you combine two bad business plans that you'll all the sudden get a successful airline? I'd think that if you combined two bad plans you'd get an even worse one.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
commavia
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 6:00 am

Quoting Airknight (Reply 42):
Wasn't AA close to declaring bankruptcy post 9/11?

They were, back in April 2003, and since then have completely turned things around. They are still not at sustainable profitability, but neither is CO, and both companies are headed firmly in the right direction.
 
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STT757
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 6:06 am

I think there's a possibility that there be two large mergers, CO/UAL and AA + either DL or NWA.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
Indy
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 6:09 am

Ever think that maybe we should reregulate the airline industry? Ok its probably a dirty word but with all the money that is being lost it may not be a bad idea.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
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N328KF
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 6:14 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 46):
Ever think that maybe we should reregulate the airline industry? Ok its probably a dirty word but with all the money that is being lost it may not be a bad idea.

Why is it bad for them to lose money? The idea here is that enough of them will go out of business to allow the rest of them to regain profitability. By giving them loan guarantees at their most desperate hour, or using deregulation to prop them up, all you're doing is prolonging a bad situation. I can understand the 9/11-era ATSB, but beyond that, someone needs to just die.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
UAcosCS
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 6:24 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 2):
I would like to see a CO 744 though

You would never get that chance, It would still be a UAL747 But it would be nice to see a 757-300 in UAL paint.
We had dreams and songs to sing, It's so lonely round the fields of Athenry.
 
Tornado82
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RE: Forbes: "Airline Mergers To Watch".

Wed Aug 17, 2005 6:37 am

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 36):
CLE... would become like PIT

On the other hand, PIT should become like CLE. Remember who makes money (CO), and who loses money.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 36):
MEM.... Would become more like PIT

AMS aside, it pretty much is like PIT as it stands now.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 36):
CVG... would become like PIT

Worse. PIT had other airlines and LCC's before US got really light. (Note: WN was NOT the beginning of the LCC crusade in PIT, they were merely a product of it). CVG has nothing as of now, and there aren't enough airlines to immediately open up CVG either. On the other hand, a collapse of DL at CVG would be a huge boom to DAY, CMH, and to a lesser extent IND... airports already well served by others.

I find it funny how PIT is your focus point for all these dehubbings. I didn't know we were like the posterchild for that looking at all the other airlines to collapse in the history of our country, and the effects of such at places like STL. Pretty cool though.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 41):
CO/UAL Domestic hubs:

EWR, ORD, IAH, DEN, SFO

Focus Cities:

LAX, IAD

WTF would they want that mess? UAL is probably too big as far as hubs as it is, so you want to create that huge behemoth of CO/UAL. Insane.